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The The The The Kearney Kearney Kearney Kearney ReportReportReportReport
Boulder County Real Estate
1st Quarter 2013
KearneyRealty.com 2
The The The The Kearney Kearney Kearney Kearney ReportReportReportReport
And We’re Off...And We’re Off...And We’re Off...And We’re Off... The local real estate market showed surprising strength through the holidays and soon after the calendar
turned, buyers were out in force. Buyers currently have many reasons to purchase real estate. Some of the
most compelling at the moment are; low interest rates, economic recovery, recognition that prices have bot-
tomed out and are heading up, and increased buyer confidence (based upon the three previous reasons).
These causes have had one effect on the local housing market, super high demand. Through the first quarter,
sales in Boulder County are up 16% from a year ago and up 33% from the first quarter in 2011. The market
is humming along!
However, real estate transactions take two parties, a
buyer and a seller. And so far this year there have
been too few homeowners listing their homes for
sale. At the end of March there were 28% fewer
single family homes on the market in Boulder
County than there were a year ago (see graph). Cur-
rently, 40% of the homes on the market already
have a contract on them. To put it a different way,
of every 100 homes on the market, 40 of them on
any given day already have a contract on them. If I
remember my first economics class, increased de-
mand and decreased supply lead to a shortage
situation and the natural outcome of this situation is
rising prices.
It’s too soon to know how much prices have risen but so far this spring I have seen quite a few homes with
prices that I thought were way too high go under contract very quickly. According to the latest FHFA.gov price appreciation report, prices in Boulder County had risen 2.08% for the year ending December 31, 2012. Anecdo-
tally, I have seen some homes in some areas sell at levels approximately 15% higher than they would have
been a year ago. We’ll see where the averages fall but it is definitely a sellers market.
Multiple offers are very common on homes that are in good condition and are asking a fair price. There is an
urgency to make decisions and if a house lasts more than a week or two on the market it is most likely over-
priced. A typical scenario right now is where a seller lists their home at a price level that is pushing the mar-
ket (just to see if anyone will bite). They get 15-20 showings during the first week and then when no offers
come in they start chasing the market with price reductions. A good analogy for this situation is a set of
waves hitting a beach. The first wave (of buyers) is the largest and with it brings a frenzy of activity. There are
many showings and buyers quickly decide if the house is worth buying. If that first wave of buyers does not
purchase the house it obviously has missed the mark on price or condition. As the subsequent smaller waves
come in, the house gets more and more ignored as other new listings come on the market. Sellers then re-
duce the price but new buyers to the market see that it has been on the market for 45 days and wonder
what is wrong. The market is good and sellers can get more than they would have a year or two ago, but in
most cases real estate markets go up in small steps, not all at once.
Going forward, it will be interesting to see when supply catches up with demand. The best case scenario would
be a balanced market where buyers have choices and sellers have ample buyers. In order to get there we ei-
ther need to have more listings on the market or the number of buyers will need to drop. Over the past few
years we have experienced the latter so I hope it’s the former.
Kearney Realty is a local boutique real estate firm with the mission to provide the Boulder Valley a high touch, high touch, high touch, high touch,
high tech, five star customer experiencehigh tech, five star customer experiencehigh tech, five star customer experiencehigh tech, five star customer experience. Each of our full time associates is empowered and engaged to give top
quality service based on impeccable ethics, consistent systems, professional development and cutting edge tools.
0
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January February March April May June July August September October November December
2007200720072007 2008200820082008 2009200920092009 2010201020102010 2011201120112011 2012201220122012 2013201320132013
Homes on the Market
Boulder County Residential
KearneyRealty.com 3
The The The The Kearney Kearney Kearney Kearney ReportReportReportReport
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) tracks home values in 304 metropolitan areas across the
United States. The top graph shows Boulder County’s appreciation on a quarterly basis compared to the
United States average. The lower graph shows Boulder’s national ranking in appreciation over time. The
main takeaway is that, comparatively we are doing very well.
According to FHFA.gov, median home prices in Boulder County are 2.08% above where they were a year
ago and .59% higher than they were at the end of 2007. The one year appreciation ranks us 59th
among the 304 metropolitan districts..
Boulder CountyBoulder CountyBoulder CountyBoulder County
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
4th Qtr. 2008
1st Qtr. 2009
2nd Qtr. 2009
3rd Qtr. 2009
4th Qtr. 2009
1st Qtr. 2010
2nd Qtr. 2010
3rd Qtr. 2010
4th Qtr. 2010
1st Qtr. 2011
2nd Qtr. 2011
3rd Qtr. 2011
4th Qtr. 2011
1st Qtr. 2012
2nd Qtr. 2012
3rd Qtr. 2012
4th Qtr. 2012
One Year Appreciation
Source FHFA.gov
Boulder County United States
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2006
3rd
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1st
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2012
2nd
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2012
3rd
Qtr.
2012
4th
Qtr.
2012
FHFA Ranking Ranking of one year Appreciation
(304 Total Metro Areas)
KearneyRealty.com 4
The The The The Kearney Kearney Kearney Kearney ReportReportReportReport
Total sales were up 19% in the 1st quarter compared to a year ago. Throughout Boulder
County, 68% of all real estate sales during the quarter were single family homes. The pie
graph on the right shows the breakdown of the percentage of properties that closed during the
quarter in each area. 34% of the closings during the quarter took place in Longmont, followed
closely by Boulder at 31%. What is listed as “Plains” is the suburban plains which includes,
Gunbarrel, Niwot, Lyons, the Boulder County side of Erie and all the rural area in between.
Boulder CountyBoulder CountyBoulder CountyBoulder County
0
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1200
1400
1600
1800
Q1
2008
Q2
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Q3
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Q4
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Q1
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Q1
2013
Five Year Trend of Sales Activity Boulder County
68%
27%
5%
Boulder County Sales by Type
Residential Attached Other
31%
5%
8%34%
4%
4%
14%
Boulder County Sales by Area
Boulder Louisville Lafayette Longmont
Superior Mountains Plains
KearneyRealty.com 5
The The The The Kearney Kearney Kearney Kearney ReportReportReportReport
The charts on this page of-
fer an interesting view of
the real estate market in
Boulder County.
The top chart shows the
percentage of closings that
occurred in each price
range. There is a data for
four quarters, but usually
the percentages are stable.
What stands out is that this
past quarter 75% of the
sales in the county sell for
less than $500,000. Million
dollar sales occur all the
time but they account for
approximately 4% of our
overall market.
The lower chart shows
prices in Boulder County
over the last five years on
a quarterly basis. Chances
are that your home is worth
just about the same as it
was five years ago. You can
see some recent improve-
ment that I believe will con-
tinue. As a comparison, the
blue line shows the US me-
dian price (lagging one
quarter).
Boulder CountyBoulder CountyBoulder CountyBoulder County
34%
37%
36%
34%
44%
42%
43%
41%
14%
13%
13%
17%
5%
4%
5%
3%
4%
4%
3%
4%
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Q4 2012
Q1 2013
Boulder County Percent of Sales by Price Range0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+
$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
Q4
2007
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2008
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
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2009
Q1
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2011
Q2
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2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Price Trends in Boulder County Real Estate
Median Price
Average Price
US Existing Median Price
KearneyRealty.com 6
The The The The Kearney Kearney Kearney Kearney ReportReportReportReport
Interestingly, sales within the City of Boulder decreased slightly during the first quarter this year
when compared to last year. A major cause for this has been the lack of listing inventory. If
there is nothing to sell, sales will drop. The sales mix in the City of Boulder this quarter is al-
most 52/48 residential and attached. Sales by zip code throughout the city are fairly wide
spread. This past quarter, most of the sales were in 80304 followed closely by 80303.
City of BoulderCity of BoulderCity of BoulderCity of Boulder
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Q1
2013
Five Year Trend of Sales Activity City of Boulder
52%
48%
Sales by Type City of Boulder
Residential Attached
18%
20%
23%
26%
13%
City of Boulder Sales by Zip Code
80301 80302 80303 80304 80305
KearneyRealty.com 7
The The The The Kearney Kearney Kearney Kearney ReportReportReportReport
The City of Boulder
has had more homes
sell the luxury quad-
rant than other areas
of the county. 75% of
the sales countywide
were below $500,000,
in Boulder only 58% of
the sales were below
that threshold. Sales
over $1 million were
7% of the market this
past quarter, this is
nearly double the per-
centage of the county.
21% of the sales in
the city were below
$250,000. This is much
lower than he 34%
county wide. Those
sales are picked up in
the $500 - $750k
category which is 27%
in the city and just
17% in the county.
The lower chart shows
prices in the City of
Boulder over the past
five years. Again, prices
have not moved much
over the past five
years. The median
price for the third
quarter in Boulder for
all residential proper-
ties sold was $435,000.
City of BoulderCity of BoulderCity of BoulderCity of Boulder
21%
25%
25%
21%
42%
39%
37%
37%
21%
21%
22%
27%
9%
6%
10%
7%
6%
8%
6%
7%
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Q4 2012
Q1 2013
City of Boulder Percent of Sales by Price Range0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+
$-
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2008
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
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Q4
2010
Q1
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Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
City of Boulder Price Trends
Median Price Average Price County Median
KearneyRealty.com 8
The The The The Kearney Kearney Kearney Kearney ReportReportReportReport
East county includes sales in Erie, Lafayette, Louisville and Superior. The top graph shows that
sales have been relatively stable over the past five years. A vast majority of the sales in east
county are single family homes. Just 20% of sales were condos or townhomes. The pie chart
on the right shows where the sales are taking place. There is a good mix between these towns
but the town that had the most sales in the first quarter was Erie.
East CountyEast CountyEast CountyEast County
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600
Q1
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Q4
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Q1
2013
Five Year Trend of Sales Activity East County Communities
80%
20%
Sales by Type East County Communities
Residential Attached
18%
27%
16%
39%
East County Sales by Area
Louisville Lafayette Superior Erie
KearneyRealty.com 9
The The The The Kearney Kearney Kearney Kearney ReportReportReportReport
The median price for
sales in Erie, Lafayette,
Louisville and Superior
during the third quarter
was $344,900. A vast
majority of the sales in
this area are in the
$250 - $500k range.
There are very few
sales above $750,000
(just 8 sales or 3%).
Unlike other areas in
Boulder County, prices
have shown some in-
creases over the past
five years. Not much
but the trend is posi-
tive.
There is a lack of in-
ventory in many of the
markets in east county.
The mix of proximity,
lifestyle and median
price had made these
communities very
popular with buyers.
East CountyEast CountyEast CountyEast County
25%
27%
25%
23%
63%
59%
59%
61%
11%
11%
15%
13%
2%
2%
1%
3%
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Q4 2012
Q1 2013
East County - Percent of Sales by Price Range0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+
$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2008
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
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2011
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2011
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2011
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Q2
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Q3
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Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Price Trend in East Boulder County
Median Price Average Price County Median Price
KearneyRealty.com 10
The The The The Kearney Kearney Kearney Kearney ReportReportReportReport
Gunbarrel is an area just northeast of Boulder. It is comprised of properties both within the City
of Boulder and others which are in Boulder County. However, there was a huge increase (62%)
in sales during the first quarter this year compared to last year. This past quarter 55% of the
sales in Gunbarrel were single family homes and the balance were condos and townhomes.
Many quarters it is nearer to 50/50. There were 47 sales in Gunbarrel during the most recent
quarter.
GunbarrelGunbarrelGunbarrelGunbarrel
0
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20
30
40
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60
70
80
90
100
Q1
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Q1
2013
Five Year Trend of Sales Activity - Gunbarrel
Residential55%
Attached45%
Sales by Type Gunbarrel
KearneyRealty.com 11
The The The The Kearney Kearney Kearney Kearney ReportReportReportReport
The median price for
all sales in Gunbarrel
during the third quarter
was $365,000. Most of
the sales in Gunbarrel
close for $500,000 or
less. There have been
8 sales in Gunbarrel
over $750,000 during
the past quarter. This
is 17% of the market
and showed good im-
provement over recent
quarters.
The sample size for
Gunbarrel is smaller
than the other areas
we look at. Therefore,
the prices reflected in
the graph below are
more variable. It is in-
teresting to see the
one downward spike in
median price took
place during the stimu-
lus package that en-
couraged lower priced
sales. During that
quarter back in 2009
60% of the sales were
condo’s and town-
homes. Currently
prices are heading up.
GunbarrelGunbarrelGunbarrelGunbarrel
34%
33%
36%
34%
52%
59%
54%
49%
13%
6%
8%
15%
0%
0%
2%
0%
1%
2%
0%
2%
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Q4 2012
Q1 2013
Gunbarrel Percent of Sales by Price Range
0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+
$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2008
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Price Trend in Gunbarrel
Median Price
Average Price
Boulder County Median
KearneyRealty.com 12
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Sales in Longmont surged during the first quarter of 2013. Overall there was a 38% jump from
the first quarter of 2012. As a community, Longmont had more sales during this most recent
quarter than any other community in Boulder County. Roughly 82% of the sales in Longmont
are single family homes. Sales are usually evenly spread throughout the city but this past quar-
ter 44% of sales were in central Longmont in area code 80501.
LongmontLongmontLongmontLongmont
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Q1
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Q1
2013
Five Year Trend of Sales Activity - Longmont
Residential82%
Attached18%
Sales by Type Longmont
44%
24%
32%
Sales by Zip Code - Longmont
80501 80503 80504
KearneyRealty.com 13
The The The The Kearney Kearney Kearney Kearney ReportReportReportReport
The median price for
all sales in Longmont
during the third quarter
was $233,000. Nearly
all of the sales in
Longmont close for
$500,000 or less.
There have only been
eight sales over
$750,000 over the past
four quarters.
The median and aver-
age prices in Longmont
are lower than the
county average. The
majority of homes in
Longmont are in the
$150,000 to $300,000
range. This past quar-
ter the average price
of a home that sold in
Longmont was
$258,874. The aver-
age price for all
homes sold in Boulder
County was $403,476.
LongmontLongmontLongmontLongmont
63%
63%
63%
60%
34%
34%
34%
40%
2%
3%
2%
0%
1%
0%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Q4 2012
Q1 2013
Longmont Percent of Sales by Price Range0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+
$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2008
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Price Trend in Longmont
Median Price Average Price Boulder County
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0
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200
300
400
500
600
January March May July September November
Boulder County Sales by Month
Single Family and Condos
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
January February March April May June July August September October November December
Boulder County Median PriceSingle Family and Condos
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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0
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3000
January February March April May June July August September October November December
2007200720072007 2008200820082008 2009200920092009 2010201020102010 2011201120112011 2012201220122012 2013201320132013
Homes on the Market
Boulder County Residential
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
January March May July September November
Boulder County - Percentage of Single Family Listings Under Contract
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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0
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152
Boulder County Real EstateBoulder County Real EstateBoulder County Real EstateBoulder County Real Estate
New Listings New Listings New Listings New Listings ---- WeeklyWeeklyWeeklyWeekly
2011
2010
2012
2013
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152
Ax
is T
itle
Weekly Under ContractWeekly Under ContractWeekly Under ContractWeekly Under Contract
2010
2011
2012
2013
The charts on this page show activity on a weekly basis. The top chart shows new listings coming on
the market and the purple line (2013) shows the trend in lower inventory. The lower chart shows the
number of homes that have gone under contract on a weekly basis. This shows gross numbers not per-
centage increases. The combination of these two graphs demonstrate the shortage in the market.
KearneyRealty.com 17
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
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200
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152
Sa
les
Boulder County Real Estate
Number Sold - Weekly
2010
2011
2012
2013
Overall sales are up 16% but this shows the data on a weekly basis.
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Seven Reasons To Be Optimistic About Real Estate in 2013
1 The media is starting to report how great the real estate market is. Confi-
dence is growing.
2 Interest rates are still very low.
3 Prices are just starting to rise.
4 Affordability is very high. Meaning the purchasing power is very strong.
5 The local economy is showing strength. As a state we are gaining jobs.
6 Low inventory – this puts pressure on prices and creates a sellers market. 7 Tight rental market- good for real estate investors; bad for renters. Forces
renters who are looking for stability and more affordability into the buying
market.
Kearney Realty - Our Core Values
1. Integrity and Class – Keeping our word; knowing what’s right and
doing what’s right.
2. Selfless Service – Exceeding expectations by focusing on excep-
tional service.
3. Caring - All of our relationships are based on mutual respect, co-
operation and consideration.
4. Connected - Give back to the profession and the community. 5%
of company profits are donated to local charities.
5. Innovation – Continually striving to find new and better ways to
serve our customers and associates.