New Home Affordability Trends - Dallasfed.org/media/documents… · 11 Houston‐The Woodlands‐Sugar Land, TX 46,000 1.50% 12 San Francisco‐Oakland‐Hayward, CA 38,600 1.60%

New Home Affordability TrendsFebruary 23, 2018

1

Regional Director Territories

Quita SyhapanyaME, NH, VT, MA, DE NY, CT, RI, PA, NJ

John CovertCO, NM, NE, KS

David CobbFL (South Ft. Myers, Naples, Miami, Treasure Coast)

Tony PolitoFL (Tampa, Sarasota)

Jack InselmannTX (San Antonio)

Todd BritschWA, OR

Greg GrossCA (Central & N. CA); NV

Eric AllenID, MT, UT, WY

Mark GianopulosIA, IL, IN, MI, MN, MO, ND, OH, SD, WI

John MulvilleCA (S. CA)

Ben SageDC, MD, VA, WV

Amanda HoyleNC (Raleigh), SC

Eugene JamesAL, GA, KY, MS

Michael LeidelTN

Anthony CroccoFL (Jacksonville, Orlando, Central FL)

Vaike O’GradyTX (Austin)

Paige ShippTX (Dallas); OK, AR

Lawrence DeanTX (Houston)

Ryan BraultAZ

Jenifer Gooch NC (Charlotte)

www.metrostudy.com

Territory Experts

3

Construction Lifecycle

Land Entitlement

ProductOptimization

LandDevelopment

Sales & Marketing

HomeConstruction

HomeClosings

Project Closeout

4

Deed Closing Data

Consumer Segmentation Data

Sales & Traffic Data

Visual Observation of Activity & Inventory DataComplete visibility into

SUPPLY & DEMANDthroughout the

LIFECYCLE

Top Job Growth MarketsRanked by Change in Emp. – December 2017

www.metrostudy.com Dallas-Fort Worth Housing Market Update ©Copyright Metrostudy 2018 51.24.18

Rank CBSA Job Growth Growth Rate1 Dallas‐Fort Worth‐Arlington, TX 91,700 2.60%2 New York‐Newark‐Jersey City, NY‐NJ‐PA 83,600 0.90%3 Los Angeles‐Long Beach‐Anaheim, CA 78,300 1.30%4 Miami‐Fort Lauderdale‐West Palm Beach, FL 65,500 2.50%5 Seattle‐Tacoma‐Bellevue, WA 56,800 2.90%6 Atlanta‐Sandy Springs‐Roswell, GA 55,600 2.00%7 Washington‐Arlington‐Alexandria, DC‐VA‐MD‐WV 55,000 1.70%8 Riverside‐San Bernardino‐Ontario, CA 49,800 3.40%9 Minneapolis‐St. Paul‐Bloomington, MN‐WI 46,700 2.40%10 Orlando‐Kissimmee‐Sanford, FL 46,700 3.80%11 Houston‐The Woodlands‐Sugar Land, TX 46,000 1.50%12 San Francisco‐Oakland‐Hayward, CA 38,600 1.60%13 Phoenix‐Mesa‐Scottsdale, AZ 37,600 1.80%14 San Antonio‐New Braunfels, TX 33,100 3.20%15 Detroit‐Warren‐Dearborn, MI 32,100 1.60%16 Chicago‐Naperville‐Elgin, IL‐IN‐WI 31,800 0.70%17 Portland‐Vancouver‐Hillsboro, OR‐WA 31,000 2.70%18 Austin‐Round Rock, TX 30,000 2.90%19 Las Vegas‐Henderson‐Paradise, NV 29,900 3.10%20 Denver‐Aurora‐Lakewood, CO 29,300 2.00%

Top Homebuilding MarketsRanked by Annual Starts

www.metrostudy.com Dallas-Fort Worth Housing Market Update ©Copyright Metrostudy 2017 611.1.17

Source: Metrostudy

Rank Market Annual Starts Annual Change % Change1 Dallas/Ft.Worth 33,243 3,149 10.5%2 Houston 27,307 1,818 7.1%3 Atlanta 24,325 2,709 12.5%4 Central Florida 23,634 2,273 10.6%5 Phoenix/Tucson 22,429 2,487 12.5%6 Southern California 19,863 678 3.5%7 Denver/Colorado Springs 19,622 895 4.8%8 Austin 16,058 630 4.1%9 Northern California 15,282 1,862 13.9%10 Salt Lake City 12,472 1,694 15.7%11 Raleigh/Durham 12,131 1,018 9.2%12 Philadelphia Region 12,086 1,905 18.7%13 Charlotte 12,060 1,083 9.9%14 San Antonio 11,082 994 9.9%15 Tampa 10,542 1,757 20.0%16 Central California 10,512 991 10.4%17 Suburban Maryland 10,394 287 2.8%18 Las Vegas 10,294 1,547 17.7%19 Seattle 9,971 938 10.4%20 Northern Virginia 9,339 1,621 21.0%21 Nashville 8,965 362 4.2%22 South Florida 8,098 205 2.6%23 Twin Cities 7,935 1,678 26.8%24 Jacksonville 7,568 248 3.4%25 Chicago 7,259 452 6.6%

Austin, DFW, Houston and San AntonioTrend in Home Sales

7www.metrostudy.com ©Copyright Metrostudy 2018 2.23.18

Austin, DFW, Houston and San AntonioTrend in Share of Home Sales by Type


Austin, DFW, Houston and San Antonio2017 Home market share by type and price range

9

86.6%

68.4%61.6% 62.0%

84.8%

9.2%

29.7%37.0% 36.4%

12.9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Under $200,000 $200,000 to $300,000 $300,000 to $400,000 $400,000 to $800,000 $800,000+

REO Existing New

www.metrostudy.com ©Copyright Metrostudy 2018 2.23.18

Austin, DFW, Houston and San AntonioAnnual Starts Trend by Price Range


Austin, DFW, Houston and San AntonioAnnual Starts by Price Range


Austin, DFW, Houston and San AntonioAnnual Starts by Price Range


Major Texas Housing MarketsMarkets remain undersupplied despite growth in Starts


Source: Metrostudy Residential Economic Report

Austin-Round Rock, TX CBSA

* Over/Under supply measures based on current jobs-to-housing relationship relative to long-term relationship betw een jobs and housing. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Moody's Analytics; Real Estate Economics

HOUSING DEMAND AND SUPPLY PATTERNS

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

Jan‐90

Jan‐91

Jan‐92

Jan‐93

Jan‐94

Jan‐95

Jan‐96

Jan‐97

Jan‐98

Jan‐99

Jan‐00

Jan‐01

Jan‐02

Jan‐03

Jan‐04

Jan‐05

Jan‐06

Jan‐07

Jan‐08

Jan‐09

Jan‐10

Jan‐11

Jan‐12

Jan‐13

Jan‐14

Jan‐15

Jan‐16

Jan‐17

Jan‐18

prj

Jan‐19

prj

Jan‐20

prj

Jan‐21

prj

Jan‐22

prj

Jan‐23

prj

Units D

eman

d/Su

pplied

Total Housing Supply Total Housing Demand

5-Year Forecast

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX CBSA



1,500,000

1,700,000

1,900,000

2,100,000

2,300,000

2,500,000

2,700,000

2,900,000

3,100,000

3,300,000

Jan‐90

Jan‐91

Jan‐92

Jan‐93

Jan‐94

Jan‐95

Jan‐96

Jan‐97

Jan‐98

Jan‐99

Jan‐00

Jan‐01

Jan‐02

Jan‐03

Jan‐04

Jan‐05

Jan‐06

Jan‐07

Jan‐08

Jan‐09

Jan‐10

Jan‐11

Jan‐12

Jan‐13

Jan‐14

Jan‐15

Jan‐16

Jan‐17

Jan‐18

prj

Jan‐19

prj

Jan‐20

prj

Jan‐21

prj

Jan‐22

prj

Jan‐23

prj

Units

Dem

and/Su

pplied


5-Year Forecast

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX CBSA



1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

2,200,000

2,400,000

2,600,000

2,800,000

3,000,000

Jan‐90

Jan‐91

Jan‐92

Jan‐93

Jan‐94

Jan‐95

Jan‐96

Jan‐97

Jan‐98

Jan‐99

Jan‐00

Jan‐01

Jan‐02

Jan‐03

Jan‐04

Jan‐05

Jan‐06

Jan‐07

Jan‐08

Jan‐09

Jan‐10

Jan‐11

Jan‐12

Jan‐13

Jan‐14

Jan‐15

Jan‐16

Jan‐17

Jan‐18

prj

Jan‐19

prj

Jan‐20

prj

Jan‐21

prj

Jan‐22

prj

Jan‐23

prj

Units

Dem

and/Su

pplied


5-Year Forecast

San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX CBSA



450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000

850,000

900,000

950,000

Jan‐90

Jan‐91

Jan‐92

Jan‐93

Jan‐94

Jan‐95

Jan‐96

Jan‐97

Jan‐98

Jan‐99

Jan‐00

Jan‐01

Jan‐02

Jan‐03

Jan‐04

Jan‐05

Jan‐06

Jan‐07

Jan‐08

Jan‐09

Jan‐10

Jan‐11

Jan‐12

Jan‐13

Jan‐14

Jan‐15

Jan‐16

Jan‐17

Jan‐18

prj

Jan‐19

prj

Jan‐20

prj

Jan‐21

prj

Jan‐22

prj

Jan‐23

prj

Units

Dem

and/Su

pplied


5-Year Forecast

Major Texas Housing MarketsMarkets remain undersupplied despite growth in Starts


Source: Metrostudy Residential Economic Report

Austin-Round Rock, TX CBSA

* Over/Undersupply measures based on current jobs-to-housing relationship relative to long-term relationship betw een jobs and housing. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Moody's Analytics; Real Estate Economics

OVE

RBUI

LT

HOUSING OVER/UNDERSUPPLY PATTERNS

UN

DERB

UILT

60,000

40,000

20,000

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

Jan-

90Ja

n-91

Jan-

92Ja

n-93

Jan-

94Ja

n-95

Jan-

96Ja

n-97

Jan-

98Ja

n-99

Jan-

00Ja

n-01

Jan-

02Ja

n-03

Jan-

04Ja

n-05

Jan-

06Ja

n-07

Jan-

08Ja

n-09

Jan-

10Ja

n-11

Jan-

12Ja

n-13

Jan-

14Ja

n-15

Jan-

16Ja

n-17

Jan-

18Ja

n-19

Jan-

20Ja

n-21

Jan-

22Ja

n-23

5-Year Forecast

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX CBSA


OVE

RB

UIL

T


U

ND

ERB

UIL

T

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Jan-

90Ja

n-91

Jan-

92Ja

n-93

Jan-

94Ja

n-95

Jan-

96Ja

n-97

Jan-

98Ja

n-99

Jan-

00Ja

n-01

Jan-

02Ja

n-03

Jan-

04Ja

n-05

Jan-

06Ja

n-07

Jan-

08Ja

n-09

Jan-

10Ja

n-11

Jan-

12Ja

n-13

Jan-

14Ja

n-15

Jan-

16Ja

n-17

Jan-

18Ja

n-19

Jan-

20Ja

n-21

Jan-

22Ja

n-23

5-Year Forecast

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX CBSA


OVE

RBUI

LT


UN

DERB

UILT

150,000

100,000

50,000

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

Jan-

90Ja

n-91

Jan-

92Ja

n-93

Jan-

94Ja

n-95

Jan-

96Ja

n-97

Jan-

98Ja

n-99

Jan-

00Ja

n-01

Jan-

02Ja

n-03

Jan-

04Ja

n-05

Jan-

06Ja

n-07

Jan-

08Ja

n-09

Jan-

10Ja

n-11

Jan-

12Ja

n-13

Jan-

14Ja

n-15

Jan-

16Ja

n-17

Jan-

18Ja

n-19

Jan-

20Ja

n-21

Jan-

22Ja

n-23

5-Year Forecast

San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX CBSA


OVE

RB

UIL

T


U

ND

ERB

UIL

T

60,000

40,000

20,000

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

Jan-

90Ja

n-91

Jan-

92Ja

n-93

Jan-

94Ja

n-95

Jan-

96Ja

n-97

Jan-

98Ja

n-99

Jan-

00Ja

n-01

Jan-

02Ja

n-03

Jan-

04Ja

n-05

Jan-

06Ja

n-07

Jan-

08Ja

n-09

Jan-

10Ja

n-11

Jan-

12Ja

n-13

Jan-

14Ja

n-15

Jan-

16Ja

n-17

Jan-

18Ja

n-19

Jan-

20Ja

n-21

Jan-

22Ja

n-23

5-Year Forecast

Austin, DFW, Houston and San AntonioNew Home Inventory Trend by Price Range


Austin, DFW, Houston and San AntonioVacant Developed Lot Inventory Trend by Price Range


Austin, DFW, Houston and San AntonioVacant Developed Lots by Price Range


Austin, DFW, Houston and San AntonioVacant Developed Lots by Price Range


…now you know

19

Documents

New Home Affordability Trends - Dallasfed.org/media/documents… · 11 Houston‐The Woodlands‐Sugar Land, TX 46,000 1.50% 12 San Francisco‐Oakland‐Hayward, CA 38,600 1.60%