Dr. James P. - Dallasfed.org/media/documents/research/... · 2018-03-01 · interest rates and monetary/fiscal policies 4. Infrastructure: transportation, education, utilities, water

Dr. James P. GainesChief Economist

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas & Real Estate Center at Texas A&M UniversityFebruary 23, 2018

Macro Housing Issues1. Affordability: the main challenge for the next several

years (decades?); income growth vs. price changes2. Demographics: generational life cycles; shifting tastes,

preferences, attitudes & desires3. Capital Flows & Lending Requirements: equity requirements;

interest rates and monetary/fiscal policies4. Infrastructure: transportation, education, utilities, water5. Development: Design, Density, Resources and

Processes6. Regulatory: lending; environmental; land use controls

FederalStateLocal

Affordability: Income to Price Balance

HousePrice

Household Income

4

Affordability:How much down

and how much per month?

Future of Housing & Affordability:Supply & Demand

Demand Side• Income growth relative to home price

changes• Demographics and shifts in housing

attitudes & preferences• Mortgage availability: currently a demand

constraint• Underwriting and risk rating: ease of credit & terms• Interest rates

• Effective buyer education

Future of Housing & Affordability:Supply & Demand

Supply Side• Land & land development costs• Construction Costs: labor & materials• Rent growth• Regulatory Effects: federal, state and local

constrain supply & lead to higher costs• SF investor-rental market

National Housing Market

7

05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,000

0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,000

Jan-

00Ju

l-00

Jan-

01Ju

l-01

Jan-

02Ju

l-02

Jan-

03Ju

l-03

Jan-

04Ju

l-04

Jan-

05Ju

l-05

Jan-

06Ju

l-06

Jan-

07Ju

l-07

Jan-

08Ju

l-08

Jan-

09Ju

l-09

Jan-

10Ju

l-10

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

Jan-

13Ju

l-13

Jan-

14Ju

l-14

Jan-

15Ju

l-15

Jan-

16Ju

l-16

Jan-

17Ju

l-17

Jan-

18

Sources: US Census Bureau; NAR

Existing SF Home Sales

New SF Home Sales

Hom

e Sa

les

000s

, SA

AR

Hom

e Sa

les

000s

, SA

AR

New and Existing SF Home Sales U.S.New and Existing SF Home Sales

NAHB-Wells Fargo Housing Market Index & SF Starts

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jan-

90Ju

l-90

Jan-

91Ju

l-91

Jan-

92Ju

l-92

Jan-

93Ju

l-93

Jan-

94Ju

l-94

Jan-

95Ju

l-95

Jan-

96Ju

l-96

Jan-

97Ju

l-97

Jan-

98Ju

l-98

Jan-

99Ju

l-99

Jan-

00Ju

l-00

Jan-

01Ju

l-01

Jan-

02Ju

l-02

Jan-

03Ju

l-03

Jan-

04Ju

l-04

Jan-

05Ju

l-05

Jan-

06Ju

l-06

Jan-

07Ju

l-07

Jan-

08Ju

l-08

Jan-

09Ju

l-09

Jan-

10Ju

l-10

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

Jan-

13Ju

l-13

Jan-

14Ju

l-14

Jan-

15Ju

l-15

Jan-

16Ju

l-16

Jan-

17Ju

l-17

Jan-

18Ju

l-18

Hou

sing

Sta

rts,

000

s

HM

I

Housing Market Index Single-Family Starts

Source: NAHB, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Average Starts since 1990 (SAAR) 1,014k

Expected Interest Rate on a 30-Year, Fixed-Rate Mortgage in 2018

Apr-105.10

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

Jan-

10

Jan-

11

Jan-

12

Jan-

13

Jan-

14

Jan-

15

Jan-

16

Jan-

17

Jan-

18

Jan-

19

Source: FHLMC; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 10

30-Year FRM rate affected by:1. Changes in Fed Funds rate2. Fed downsizing balance sheet3. Inflation expectations4. Growth in debt demand5. Income & productivity growth

+25bp

+50bp

+100bp

11

Texas Housing Market &

Affordability

Mortgage & Tenure Status of Homes in Texas 2006 & 2016

2006 2016

Number

Percent of Total Units Number

Percent of Total Units

Total Housing Units 9,224,920 10,754,268

Total Occupied Units 8,109,388 87.9% 9,535,612 88.7%Total Renter-Occupied Housing Units 2,818,343 34.8% 3,710,141 38.9%Total Owner-Occupied Housing Units 5,291,045 65.2% 5,825,471 61.1%

O-O units with a mortgage 3,368,890 63.7% 3,366,378 57.8%O-O units without a mortgage 1,922,155 36.3% 2,459,093 42.2%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 & 2016 American Community Survey

Median Household Income, Texas Counties, 2011-2015

DallasHoward

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

TomGreen

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

Deaf Smith

Roberts

Tyler

Val Verde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

RedRiver

Karnes

PaloPinto

GlasscockShelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

San Augustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

Freestone

Winkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

VanZandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

TrinityReeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

LaSalle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

UptonHamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Limestone

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Sabine

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

SanPatricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

HemphillHartley

Young

BurlesonHardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

Madison

McCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

Comanche

Mitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

Jeff Davis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

Jim Wells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

Fort Bend

Bosque

Hockley

SanSaba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

JimHogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

San Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

LiveOak

Motley

Sherman Ochiltree

Comal

$22,741.00 - $35,000.00

$35,000.01 - $45,000.00

$45,000.01 - $55,000.00

$55,000.01 - $65,000.00

$65,000.01 - $89,152.00

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey, 5-Year Samples; Texas State Demographer’s Office

Median HH Income 2011-2015 $53,207

Texas Median HH Income & Median Home Price Indexed to 1990

8090

100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240250260270280290300310320

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Nominal HH Income

Median Home Price

Median home price +206.7% (3x); Avg. 7.7%/yr.HH Income +106.0% (2x); Avg. 3.9%/yr.

Alternative Texas Population Projections 2010-2050

54,369,297

47,386,428

25,145,561 40,502,749

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

15Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Texas State Demographer 2014 Projections

2000-2010 Scenario

50% 2000-2010 Scenario

2010-2015 Scenario

From 1970 to 2010 (40 years), Texas added 13.9 million people

From 2010 to 2050 (40 years), Texas will add between 22 and 30 million people

Source: TAR Data Relevance Program; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

103,344102,789110,830

120,749126,525

126,279

142,940151,861

177,179191,189195,568

204,084209,438

224,215

250,380

277,649

304,762

286,778

241,666

221,768211,640213,396

247,090

287,235296,828

309,518323,607

336,502

358,375

$50,000$70,000$90,000$110,000$130,000$150,000$170,000$190,000$210,000$230,000$250,000$270,000$290,000$310,000$330,000$350,000$370,000

50,00070,00090,000

110,000130,000150,000170,000190,000210,000230,000250,000270,000290,000310,000330,000350,000370,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

p

Sales Avg Price Md Price

Since 2011Sales + 58%Average Price + 42%Median Price + 52%2018p sales +6-7%Prices +4%

Annual Texas Home Sales

16

2017 Change in Home Sales and Median Prices by Metro Areas

4.0%

3.8%

2.6%

3.1%

9.4%

3.6%

3.2%

6.7%

4.2%

4.3%

12.6%

3.5%

9.1%

5.4%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%

Texas

San Antonio

Houston

Fort Worth

El Paso

Dallas

Austin

Median Sales Price Sales Volume

Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Texas Months’ Inventory

Dec-17, 3.1

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Jan-

00Ju

l-00

Jan-

01Ju

l-01

Jan-

02Ju

l-02

Jan-

03Ju

l-03

Jan-

04Ju

l-04

Jan-

05Ju

l-05

Jan-

06Ju

l-06

Jan-

07Ju

l-07

Jan-

08Ju

l-08

Jan-

09Ju

l-09

Jan-

10Ju

l-10

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

Jan-

13Ju

l-13

Jan-

14Ju

l-14

Jan-

15Ju

l-15

Jan-

16Ju

l-16

Jan-

17Ju

l-17

Jan-

18Ju

l-18

18Source: TAR Data Relevance Program; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Texas Sales by Price Since 2011

Price RangePercent Distribution

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017$0 - $69,999 15.1 12.7 9.2 7.2 6.1 5.0 4.2

$70,000 - $99,999 12.5 11.3 9.5 8.2 6.8 5.6 4.8$100,000 - $149,999 23.6 22.8 21.9 20.2 17.7 15.2 12.9$150,000 - $199,999 17.5 18.5 19.7 20.3 20.7 20.6 19.7$200,000 - $249,999 9.8 10.8 11.7 12.8 14.1 15.6 16.6$250,000 - $299,999 6.9 7.6 8.3 9.1 10.2 11.3 12.2$300,000 - $399,999 7.1 7.9 9.3 10.5 11.8 13.0 14.5$400,000 - $499,999 3.0 3.6 4.5 5.1 5.6 6.2 6.7$500,000 - $749,999 2.7 3.0 3.6 4.2 4.6 4.9 5.4$750,000 - $999,999 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4

$1,000,000 + 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4Source: TAR Data Relevance Project; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

201169%

201742%

30% 55%

14,273

16,186

43,484

66,155

55,754

41,074

48,770

22,648

18,147

4,838

4,687

70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0

Sales

Texas 2017 Sales and EoY Months Inventory by Price

20

3.4

3.3

2.3

2.1

2.3

3.0

3.6

4.3

5.2

7.5

10.3

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

$0 - $69,999

$70,000 - $99,999

$100,000 - $149,999

$150,000 - $199,999

$200,000 - $249,999

$250,000 - $299,999

$300,000 - $399,999

$400,000 - $499,999

$500,000 - $749,999

$750,000 - $999,999

$1,000,000 +

MOI

Source: TAR Data Relevance Program; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

4.3%

4.8%

12.9%

19.7%

16.6%

12.2%

14.5%

6.7%

5.4%

1.4%

1.4%

Texas Households by Highest Affordable Price: 20% Down

1,637

877

703

665

587

571

946

692

1,114

626

532

586

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000

<$70,000

$70,000-$99,999

$100,000-$124,999

$125,000-$149,999

$150,000-$174,999

$175,000-$199,999

$200,000-$249,999

$250,000-$299,999

$300,000-$399,999

$400,000-$499,999

$500,000-$749,999

>$750,000

Thousands of Households

Number of Owner-Occupied Units

Households and Percent of HH17.2%

9.2%

7.4%

7.0%

6.2%

6.0%

9.9%

7.3%

11.7%

6.6%

20% down; 4.15% interest; 35% qualifying ratio; and 6% taxes, insurance & utilities5.6%

6.1%

~41% of Texas HHs cannot afford home priced > $150,000;~53% not >$200,000

Median Income of $56,565 can afford home priced at $185,605; effective 3.28x

Source: 2016 American Community Survey; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University


1,753

922

722

678

617

559

924

730

1,060

542

453

576

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000

<$70,000

$70,000-$99,999

$100,000-$124,999

$125,000-$149,999

$150,000-$174,999

$175,000-$199,999

$200,000-$249,999

$250,000-$299,999

$300,000-$399,999

$400,000-$499,999

$500,000-$749,999

>$750,000


18.4%

9.7%

7.6%

7.1%

6.5%

5.9%

9.7%

7.7%

11.1%

5.7%


6.0%

~43% of Texas HHs cannot afford home priced > $150,000;~55% not > $200,000




1,810

945

735

682

632

553

913

749

1,013

520

413

571

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000

<$70,000

$70,000-$99,999

$100,000-$124,999

$125,000-$149,999

$150,000-$174,999

$175,000-$199,999

$200,000-$249,999

$250,000-$299,999

$300,000-$399,999

$400,000-$499,999

$500,000-$749,999

>$750,000


19.0%

9.9%

7.7%

7.2%

6.6%

5.8%

9.6%

7.9%

10.6%

5.5%


6.0%

~44% of Texas HHs cannot afford home priced > $150,000;~56% not > $200,000



Average Number of Texas Households That Cannot Afford a Home Price Increase of

$1,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000$7

5,00

0$8

0,00

0$8

5,00

0$9

0,00

0$9

5,00

0$1

00,0

00$1

05,0

00$1

10,0

00$1

15,0

00$1

20,0

00$1

25,0

00$1

30,0

00$1

35,0

00$1

40,0

00$1

45,0

00$1

50,0

00$1

55,0

00$1

60,0

00$1

65,0

00$1

70,0

00$1

75,0

00$1

80,0

00$1

85,0

00$1

90,0

00$1

95,0

00$2

00,0

00$2

05,0

00$2

10,0

00$2

15,0

00$2

20,0

00$2

25,0

00$2

50,0

00$3

00,0

00$3

50,0

00$4

00,0

00$4

50,0

00$5

00,0

00$5

50,0

00$6

00,0

00$6

50,0

00$7

00,0

00$7

50,0

00

Num

ber o

f Hou

seho

lds

Home Price Intervals


20% down; 4.15% interest; 35% qualifying ratio; and 6% taxes, insurance & utilities

Average Number of Households Unable to Afford a $1,000 Price Increase

Home Price IntervalsAverage Number of HH Per

$1,000 Price Increase$50,000-$100,000 28,449

$100,000-$150,000 27,362$150,000-$200,000 23,156$200,000-$250,000 19,213$250,000-$300,000 16,169$300,000-$500,000 9,726$500,000-$750,000 2,130

Average thru $250,000 25,315Overall Average 21,358

20% down; 4.15% interest; 35% qualifying ratio; and 6% taxes, insurance & utilities


Texas & US Housing Affordability Indexes

1.74

1.58

1.69 1.68

1.811.77

1.68

1.54

1.45

1.59

1.88

1.962.04

2.15

1.93

1.74 1.761.66

1.54

1.38 1.381.45 1.43 1.41

1.34

1.23

1.10 1.11

1.33

1.771.80

1.91

1.99

1.77

1.66 1.66 1.65

1.46

1.001.101.201.301.401.501.601.701.801.902.002.102.202.302.402.50

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

TEXAS US


Texas is fast losing it’s competitive housing advantage

Measuring Affordable Housing

Measuring Affordable Housing: Demand and Supply at the

Local Level:

Austin/Travis County Case Study on Affordability

Affordable Price and Rent by Median HH Income Cohorts

• What is an “affordable” unit?• Owner-occupied units:

Price-to-income ratio of 3.33• Renter-occupied units:

Rent-to-income ratio of 35%

Source: American Community Survey and REC Estimates

2015 Median Household Income Travis County = $65,269City of Austin = $62,250

Travis County City of Austin

Income Cohorts Income Distribution

Price Range of “Affordable”

Rent Range of“Affordable” Income Distribution

Price Range of“Affordable”

Rent Range of “Affordable”

0‐30% MHI $0 $19,581 $0 ‐ $65,205 $0 ‐ $571 $0 $18,675 $0 ‐ $62,188 $0 ‐ $545

>30‐60% MHI $19,582 $39,161 $65,206 ‐$130,406

$572 ‐ $1,142 $18,676 $37,350 $62,189 ‐$124,376

$546 ‐ $1,089

>60‐80% MHI $39,162 $52,215 $130,407 ‐$173,876

$1,143 ‐ $1,523 $37,351 $49,800 $124,377 ‐$165,834

$1,090 ‐$1,453

>80‐120% MHI

$52,216 $78,323 $173,877 ‐$260,816

$1,524 ‐ $2,284 $49,801 $74,700 $165,835 ‐$248,751

$1,454 ‐$2,179

>120‐140% MHI

$78,324 $91,377 $260,817 ‐$304,285

$2,285 ‐ $2,665 $74,701 $87,150 $248,752 ‐$290,210

$2,180 ‐$2,542

>140% MHI $91,378 ‐ >$304,285 >$2,665 $87,151 ‐ >$290,210 >$2,542

Sources: 2015 American Community Survey and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

REC Estimate of Distribution of “Affordable” Owner- and Renter-Occupied Units in 2015

Travis County City of Austin

Income Cohorts

“Affordable” Owner‐OccupiedUnits (2015)

“Affordable” Renter‐OccupiedUnits (2015)

Total “Affordable” Occupied Housing Units (2015)

“Affordable” Housing Units as a Percentageof Total Stock (2015)

“Affordable” Owner‐OccupiedUnits (2015)

“Affordable” Renter‐OccupiedUnits (2015)

Total “Affordable” Occupied Housing Units (2015)

“Affordable” Housing Units as a Percentageof Total Stock (2015)

0-30% MHI 10,186 20,247 30,433 6.8% 5,388 15,035 20,423 5.6%

>30-60% MHI 18,819 84,734 103,553 23.2% 9,589 75,381 84,970 23.3%

>60-80% MHI 23,391 67,556 90,947 20.4% 13,248 61,787 75,035 20.5%

>80-120% MHI 50,699 37,479 88,178 19.8% 36,685 41,446 78,131 21.4%

>120-140% MHI

22,855 4,344 27,199 6.1% 18,333 5,646 23,979 6.6%

>140% MHI 101,963 4,069 106,032 23.7% 78,594 3,761 82,355 22.6%

227,913 218,429 446,342 100% 161,837 203,056 364,893 100%Source: American Community Survey and REC Estimates

Projected Housing to Meet Affordability Needs: Travis Co.

Income Cohorts

Price Range of “Affordable”Price‐to‐

income ratioof 3.33

Rent Range of

“Affordable”Rent‐to‐

income ratio of 35%

# of HHs in the Income Cohort(2015)

# of “Affordable” Occupied

Housing Units by Income

Cohort (2015)

Level of (Under) or Oversupply in 2015

Projected #of

Households by 2025

Change in # of Occupied

Housing Units to Meet

“Affordability” of Each Income

Cohort by 2025

0‐30% MHI $0 ‐ $65,205 $0 ‐ $571 53,184 30,433 (22,751) 71,266 40,833

>30‐60% MHI

$65,206 ‐$130,406

$572 ‐$1,142

77,253 103,553 26,300 103,519 (34)

>60‐80% MHI

$130,407 ‐$173,876

$1,143 ‐$1,523

48,038 90,947 42,909 64,371 (26,576)

>80‐120% MHI

$173,877 ‐$260,816

$1,524 ‐$2,284

80,469 88,178 7,709 107,828 19,650

>120‐140% MHI

$260,817 ‐$304,285

$2,285 ‐$2,665

30,066 27,199 (2,867) 40,288 13,089

>140% MHI >$304,285 >$2,665 157,332 106,032 (51,300) 210,826 104,794

446,342 446,342 ‐ 598,098 151,756

Sources: American Community Survey and REC Estimates; Owner‐occupied household income distribution in 2025 is the same as in 2015.

Texas SF Building Permits

38,23346,209

59,54369,96470,45270,421

83,13282,228

99,912101,928108,782111,915

122,913

137,493

151,384

166,203163,032

120,366

81,107

68,23068,17067,254

81,926

93,478103,045

105,448106,511

115,262

125,636

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

e20

18p

Source: US Census Bureau; NAHB; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M

2015 +2.3%2016 +1.0%2017e +8.4%2018p +9%

1990-2016 average 95,529/year

Texas MF Building Permits

8,96210,2989,514

15,545

32,23734,68435,720

43,794

56,918

44,716

32,620

38,42742,40943,081

39,796

44,431

53,894

58,542

49,897

17,37521,504

32,260

56,40656,644

67,31969,995

59,34256,85455,149

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,00019

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

1520

1620

17e

2018

p

Source: US Census Bureau, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M

1995-2016 average 45,444/year

Texas Residential Construction Leading and Coincident Indexes

Jan 2000=100

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jan-

00Ju

l-00

Jan-

01Ju

l-01

Jan-

02Ju

l-02

Jan-

03Ju

l-03

Jan-

04Ju

l-04

Jan-

05Ju

l-05

Jan-

06Ju

l-06

Jan-

07Ju

l-07

Jan-

08Ju

l-08

Jan-

09Ju

l-09

Jan-

10Ju

l-10

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

Jan-

13Ju

l-13

Jan-

14Ju

l-14

Jan-

15Ju

l-15

Jan-

16Ju

l-16

Jan-

17Ju

l-17

Jan-

18Ju

l-18


Leading Index

Coincident Index

Total Housing Permits (12-MMA)

33

What We Have to Look Forward To!

Dr. James P. GainesChief Economist

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas & Real Estate Center at Texas A&M UniversityFebruary 23, 2018

Documents

Dr. James P. - Dallasfed.org/media/documents/research/... · 2018-03-01 · interest rates and monetary/fiscal policies 4. Infrastructure: transportation, education, utilities, water