New Electricity Cost Management · 2017. 6. 13. · Assume 14hr / day, 7 day operation NUoS Tariff 82 Projected delivered energy: $244/MWh $144 / kVA pa Cost of new fittings ~$1,000

Key Energy & Resources © AFSL 281356

Electricity Cost Management

May 2017

Mark SearleB.Eng, M.Eng, Dip Fin Serv., MIE Aust. CPEng

Principal ConsultantKey Energy & Resources

[email protected]

T I R – Launceston

Key Energy & Resources © AFSL 281356170428 TIR Presentation

Disclaimer

Key Energy & Resources holds an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL 281356)

Any advice contained herein is ‘general’ in nature and specific advice should be sought before acting on anything contained herein.

2


Key Energy & ResourcesSpecialist Energy Management Consultancy

Energy Market AdviceGas and Electricity

Negotiate Supply contractsLarge users $5B +

Energy Planning and Cost Control

Large client base across Australia Government, semi-government, private sector

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The good times are over….

$0$20$40$60$80

$100$120$140

16/17 17/18 18/19

$/MWhT I R Retail Rates

VWA

4

Based on current market dataSetting aside further government intervention


TIR Electricity Cost

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

16/17 17/18 18/19 Projection

$/MWhDelivered Cost - VWA

Retail NUoS MRET Market & Metering

5


What has gone wrong?

Nothing….. Market is working as it should

Private generators and gas producers exist to make a profit

Generators are benefitting from the market

Hazelwood (Vic) closed

Alinta’s Northern (SA) closed

More closures planned

And the gas market has gone ‘troppo’

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Gross Pool

The NEM is a gross pool

All electricity is traded via the pool at the price of the marginal generator

Unsymmetrical

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Profits increase when supply is constrained


Pool Range

Min = -$1,000/MWh

Max = VOLL/MPC = $14,000/MWh

Administered Price Cap of $300/MWhTriggered when cumulative RRP for previous 336

trading intervals (7 days) > $210,100

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Pool Prices

9

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

Jul-1

6

Jan-

17

Weekly RRP ($/MWh, VWA)

NSW QLD SA VIC TAS(03) 9885 2633KE&R

Key Energy & Resources


WEPI

10

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

WEPI Trend - 30 Day Moving Average

NSW VIC QLD SA(03) 9885 2633

KE&RKey Energy & Resources


EFI

11

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

Jan-

09M

ar-0

9M

ay-0

9Ju

l-09

Sep

-09

Nov

-09

Jan-

10M

ar-1

0M

ay-1

0Ju

l-10

Sep

-10

Nov

-10

Jan-

11M

ar-1

1M

ay-1

1Ju

l-11

Sep

-11

Nov

-11

Jan-

12M

ar-1

2M

ay-1

2Ju

l-12

Sep

-12

Nov

-12

Jan-

13M

ar-1

3M

ay-1

3Ju

l-13

Sep

-13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14M

ar-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

l-14

Sep

-14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15M

ar-1

5M

ay-1

5Ju

l-15

Sep

-15

Nov

-15

Jan-

16M

ar-1

6M

ay-1

6Ju

l-16

Sep

-16

Nov

-16

Jan-

17M

ar-1

7

EFI - Elec. Futures Index ($/MWh)

NSW QLD SA VIC(03) 9885 2633

KE&R Key Energy & Resources


T I R Contract

Plain Vanilla

Flexible / favourable terms

Enter market early 2018

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What to expect?

High prices

Comparable commercial terms

Two retailers

Price path 4 years

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FM / VOLL Protection


Cost SavingBeyond the contract

Housekeeping

Lighting

PV – Solar

Power Factor

More detailed energy analysis HVAC

Refrigeration

Tasmanian Energy Efficiency Loan Scheme (TEELS)

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Housekeeping

Doors closed

Fridge seals

Turn off appliances when not in use

HVAC set point

Hot water

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Lighting

LED’s very successful

Low energy cost

Low maintenance cost

Better light quality

Readily available

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LED Example Replace 10 x double T8 fittings

Assume 14hr / day, 7 day operation

NUoS Tariff 82

Projected delivered energy: $244/MWh $144 / kVA pa

Cost of new fittings ~ $1,000 installed

Annual Savings Energy $685

Demand $80

Total $765

Payback < 1.5 yearsT5 payback ~ 2 years

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PV Solar

Well proven

Many suppliers

> 20 year life

Some degradation over time

Pay back < 4 yearsOn projected energy rates

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PV / Solar Example

Assume 30 kVA system, no export Cost $39K installed

Produce 44 MWh pa$10,736 at expected rates

Payback 3.63 years

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More detailed energy analysis

Refrigeration optimisation

HVAC optimisation

Hot Water

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Power Factor

If you understand Power Factor, no

explanation is necessary.

If you don’t understand Power

Factor then no explanation is

possible.

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Power Factor Example

Assume 80 kVA site @ 0.75 PF

Correct to 0.95 PF

Cost for PFC $7K

Annual savings $1.9K

Payback 3.7 years

We will contact sites with PF < 0.80

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TEELS Available for home and small businesses

3 year interest free loan up to $10,000

Scheme administered through Aurora, loan provided through Westpac

Only available on eligible energy efficient products. For example;Solar panelsSolar battery storage Lighting upgradesHot water systemCeiling and floor insulationBuilding upgrades – small business

23


Tasmanian Gas Pipe?

24

Key Energy & Resources © AFSL 281356170224 AiG Presentation – Tas May 2017

Questions

25

Mark SearleKey Energy & Resources

[email protected]: (03) 9885 2633

Documents

New Electricity Cost Management · 2017. 6. 13. · Assume 14hr / day, 7 day operation NUoS Tariff 82 Projected delivered energy: $244/MWh $144 / kVA pa Cost of new fittings ~$1,000