New and Old Media Mix: Prospective Meta Marketing Analysis Glen Urban, MIT and Mike Hegener, GM CDB Annual Conference May 23, 2012

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Outline New Media Studies

• Gen Y Social Media – Renee and Joyce • Ad Morphing – Gui • App Effectiveness – Glen and Shegito

Million Dollar Question -- Wall Street Journal May 6, 2012 -- How to Allocate budget

App compared to TV – Liberty

Prospective Meta Analysis

GM PMMA Project – Design and Pre-test

CMO PROBLEM

• How much to put into new media? • What to drop? Old media like direct mail and

TV? • Change total spending? Not need as much?

More productive so spend more? • Leading Internet Retailer – $650 million and

75% old /25%new

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Apps vs. TV

Liberty Mutual project

How effective relative to TV?

Experiment A/B trust app versus forced TV exposure

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Intro to DubbleWrap

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TV/Print Ads

Responsibility (Anthem II), http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9UICosC5aU

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Pre/Post Differences, App (AB) vs TV Ads (AC)

LM Familiarity/Consideration AB (App)

AC (TV)

T-test

Mean Mean t p

Likelihood of considering LM (1-10) 1.31 0.82 2.083 .039**

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The app increases likelihood of consideration by 60% more than TV ads

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Pre/Post Differences, AB vs AC

Points Allocation: Which of the following companies would you prefer next time you need insurance? (100 points total)

AB (App) AC (TV) T-test

Mean Mean t p

Allstate -1.15 -1.91 1.041 0.300 Farmers -0.54 -0.37 -0.231 0.818

GEICO -1.70 0.08 -2.224 0.028**

Liberty Mutual 7.76 5.78 1.702 0.091*

Nationwide -0.51 -0.28 -0.553 0.581

Progressive -1.63 0.46 -2.061 0.042**

State Farm -1.76 -3.03 1.063 0.290 Other -0.50 -0.80 0.397 0.692

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Conclusion: App vs TV • The app was 60% more effective than TV ads at increasing consideration.

• The app was more effective at making customers feel that…

- Liberty Mutual works hard to meet my changing needs - I would recommend Liberty Mutual to a friend - When moving it is important to me to be secured

against all kind of risks

• The app was 34% more effective than TV ads at increasing points allocation.

- The app was able to steal points from GEICO and Progressive where TV ads were not.

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CMO PROBLEM -- Revisted

Change total spending? Not need as much? More productive so spend more?

P&G – Cut $1 Billion over 3 years “by shift to new digital media”

YouTube Sonic versus Super Bowl TV

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Prospective Meta Analysis in Marketing (PMMA)

Analogy to Medicine

Gold Standard – test/control and pre/post

Large Samples

Protocol same for all studies

New versus Old Media Clinics and protocol

Global clinical studies

Individual level statistical analysis

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GM PMMA Project

New versus Traditional Media – GM, Erasmus, INSEAD – Singapore, IPC

• TV vs. Search vs. Banners vs. Facebook • Sub experiments:

– Facebook vs. Youtube, blogs,Twitter (USA) – Direct Mail vs. New Media (Netherlands)

• USA, Netherlands, China field sites • 20,000 respondents base experiment and 4,000 for sub experiments • 3 year project

– Expanding scope and media/regions – Validating experiments

Relative effectiveness given exposure • Causation • Buying Process measures

Model for exposure and budgeting/allocation

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Stimulus Status Main Experiment TV TV ads sandwiched in tv show content Facebook Insert story into user news feed Banners Banner ad on edmunds.com Search Google search result ad Sub-experiment Twitter Promoted Account and Tweet Youtube Sponsored video search result ad Blogs

Allow user option to read review from: Jalopnik /Autoblog or Car and Driver or individual blogger

Direct Mail Folder with letter, pictures, QR code

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TV

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Facebook

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Banners

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Search

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Twitter

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Youtube

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Pretest Results

Chrome works

Respondents willing to download Chrome/web extension – 10% refusal

50/52 completes

Involvement –Average 2 minutes per stimulus

Measurement encouraging • Pre post consideration differences but small sample • No refusal/drop out in survey questions

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STATUS

Teams working – GM, MIT, Erasmus, INSEAD

Stimuli -- Chrome Web Extension • TV, Google, Banners, Facebook (USA) • Sub-experiment (n = 3,000) – Twitter, blogs, Youtube

(USA), direct mail Europe (N = 1,000) • China (in process) and Netherlands (Opel in Process) • IPC sub test (in design) Direct Mail Europe

Survey Design – Protocol complete and pretested

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Managerial Implications GM decisions

• Advertising spend: $2B U.S., $4.48B Global – Importance: 10% improvement is real money

Global Focus • Over half of GM sales are outside U.S. • Substantial Global growth opportunities • Huge efficiencies if assets leveraged intelligently

Implementation Challenges • Change management & running the business – new

agencies, leaders, consolidating budgets, staffs – Don’t lose local market knowledge

• Increasing competition, evolving media environment

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Managerial Implications, cont.

Research focus is on actionable marketing levers

MIT research methodology innovation • Protocols enable Global learnings • Local research promotes local acceptance

GM/MIT Partnership – IPC, Erasmus, INSEAD, OTHERS WELCOME

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TEAM

GM-MIT Core Andrew Norton - GM Karen Ebben - GM Sigal Cordeiro - GM Mike Hegener - GM David VanderVeen - GM Jonathan Owen - GM Tracey Sheets - GM Joyce Salisbury - GM Phil Keenan - GM Patricia Hawkins - GM Trina Barta - GM Dee Baker - GM Glen Urban - MIT Catherine Tucker - MIT Ryan Ko - MIT Neel Hajare - MIT Brandon Baker - MIT Qui Nguyen - MIT Shireen Taleghani - MIT Bob Yazbeck - Gongos Brandon Benvenuti - Gongos Chelsey Heitmann - Gongos

Extended/International GM Extended Network:

Jon Beebe - GM Andrew Dinsdale - GM

The Netherlands: Gui Liberali - Erasmus Stefan Stremersch - Erasmus Benedict Dellaert - Erasmus

Gert Jan Prevo - Erasmus Philip Dykewicz - GM John Kalishoek - Opel Netherlands

Andres van der Kuil - Opel Netherlands Esther Roodklif - Opel Netherlands China:

Yakov Bart - INSEAD Sharon Nishi - GM International Operations

Steve Worrall - GM International Operations Rayn Wang - GM International Operations Jaime del Valle Sansierra - GM International Operations