NERC Probabilistic Assessment

NPCC Region

Final Report December 4 2018 (rev)

Conducted by the

NPCC CP-8 Working Group

NPCC CP-8 WORKING GROUP

Philip Fedora (Chair) Northeast Power Coordinating Council Inc

Alan Adamson New York State Reliability Council

Jingyuan (Janny) Dong National Grid USA Sylvie Gicquel Hydro-Queacutebec Distribution Scott Leuthauser HQ Energy Services - US Philip Moy PSEampG Long Island Khatune Zannat Laura Popa New York Independent System Operator

Kamala Rangaswamy Nova Scotia Power Inc

Rob Vance Eacutenergie NB Power

Vithy Vithyananthan Independent Electricity System Operator

Fei Zeng ISO New England Inc Peter Wong

The CP-8 Working Group acknowledges the efforts of Messrs Eduardo Ibanez GE Energy Consulting and Patricio Rocha-Garrido the PJM Interconnection and thanks them for their assistance in this analysis

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 1 Final Report

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PAGE INTRODUCTIONhelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 3 SUMMARY helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 5 SOFTWARE MODEL DESCRIPTION helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 8 DEMAND MODELING helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 12 CONTROLABLE CAPACITY DEMAND RESPONSE MODELING helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 15 RESOURCE MODELING helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 16 CAPACITY AND LOAD SUMMARY helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 20 TRANSMISSION helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 24 ASSISTANCE FROM EXTERNAL RESOURCES helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 31 DEFINITION OF LOSS-OF-LOAD EVENT helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 34 BASE CASE RESULTS helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 35 SENSITIVITY RESULTS helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 37 COMPARISON WITH 2016 ASSESSMENT helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 39

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 2 Final Report

APPENDICES

2018 LTRA Comparisons

PAGE

A Maritimes helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 42

B New England helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 46

C New York helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 50

D Ontario helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 54

E Quebec helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 58

F Definitions helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 62

G Monthly Results helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 63

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 3 Final Report

Introduction Geographically the NPCC Region covers nearly 12 million square miles and is populated by more than 56 million people NPCC US includes the six New England states and the state of New York NPCC Canada includes the provinces of Ontario Queacutebec and the Maritime provinces of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia In total from a net energy for load perspective NPCC is approximately 45 US and 55 Canadian With regard to Canada approximately 70 of Canadian net energy for load is within the NPCC Region At the December 2008 NERC Planning Committee (PC) meeting the PC approved the formation of a Generation amp Transmission Reliability Planning Models Task Force (GTRPMTF) with two main deliverables in the scope to evaluate approaches and models for composite generation and transmission reliability assessment and provide a common set of probabilistic reliability indices and recommend probabilistic-based work products

that could be used to supplement the NERCrsquos long-term reliability assessments At the September 2010 NERC Planning Committee meeting the GTRPMTF Final Report on Methodology and Metrics was approved 1 The metrics recommended in the Final Report included the (i) annual Loss-of Load Hours (LOLH) (ii) Expected Unserved Energy (EUE) and (iii) Expected Unserved Energy as a percentage of Net Energy for Load (normalized EUE) for two common NERC Long Term Reliability Assessment forecasted years On August 12 2016 the NERC Planning Committee approved the Probabilistic Assessment Improvement Task Forcersquos Probabilistic Assessment Technical Guideline Document 2 The document identifies modeling guidelines and other recommendations to support consistent development of NERCrsquos probabilistic assessments and recommended the need to estimate or calculate monthly resource adequacy metrics as well as the annual metrics This 2018 Probabilistic Assessment (based on the NPCC 2018 Long Range Adequacy Overview) used the NERC 2018 Long-Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA) data This assessment provides the required NERC reliability indices for the NPCC Areas for the years of 2020 and 2022 In addition a Sensitivity Case was added to estimate Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) and Expected Unserved Energy (EUE) assuming a reduction of reserve margin in 2022 Increase load for each Area until the NERC LTRA Anticipated Reserve Margin is 23 of the calculated

base case and Increase load for each Area until the NERC LTRA Anticipated Reserve Margin is 13 of the calculated

base case value

1 See

httpwwwnerccomdocspcgtrpmtfGTRPMTF20Meth20amp20Metrics20Report20final20w20PC20approvals20revisionspdf

2 See httpwwwnerccomcommPCPAITFProbA20Technical20Guideline20Document20-20Finalpdf

NPCC CP-8 WORKING GROUP

Philip Fedora (Chair) Northeast Power Coordinating Council Inc

Alan Adamson New York State Reliability Council

Jingyuan (Janny) Dong National Grid USA Sylvie Gicquel Hydro-Queacutebec Distribution Scott Leuthauser HQ Energy Services - US Philip Moy PSEampG Long Island Khatune Zannat Laura Popa New York Independent System Operator

Kamala Rangaswamy Nova Scotia Power Inc

Rob Vance Eacutenergie NB Power

Vithy Vithyananthan Independent Electricity System Operator

Fei Zeng ISO New England Inc Peter Wong

The CP-8 Working Group acknowledges the efforts of Messrs Eduardo Ibanez GE Energy Consulting and Patricio Rocha-Garrido the PJM Interconnection and thanks them for their assistance in this analysis

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 1 Final Report

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PAGE INTRODUCTIONhelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 3 SUMMARY helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 5 SOFTWARE MODEL DESCRIPTION helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 8 DEMAND MODELING helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 12 CONTROLABLE CAPACITY DEMAND RESPONSE MODELING helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 15 RESOURCE MODELING helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 16 CAPACITY AND LOAD SUMMARY helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 20 TRANSMISSION helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 24 ASSISTANCE FROM EXTERNAL RESOURCES helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 31 DEFINITION OF LOSS-OF-LOAD EVENT helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 34 BASE CASE RESULTS helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 35 SENSITIVITY RESULTS helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 37 COMPARISON WITH 2016 ASSESSMENT helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 39

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 2 Final Report

APPENDICES

2018 LTRA Comparisons

PAGE

A Maritimes helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 42

B New England helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 46

C New York helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 50

D Ontario helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 54

E Quebec helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 58

F Definitions helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 62

G Monthly Results helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 63

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 3 Final Report

Introduction Geographically the NPCC Region covers nearly 12 million square miles and is populated by more than 56 million people NPCC US includes the six New England states and the state of New York NPCC Canada includes the provinces of Ontario Queacutebec and the Maritime provinces of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia In total from a net energy for load perspective NPCC is approximately 45 US and 55 Canadian With regard to Canada approximately 70 of Canadian net energy for load is within the NPCC Region At the December 2008 NERC Planning Committee (PC) meeting the PC approved the formation of a Generation amp Transmission Reliability Planning Models Task Force (GTRPMTF) with two main deliverables in the scope to evaluate approaches and models for composite generation and transmission reliability assessment and provide a common set of probabilistic reliability indices and recommend probabilistic-based work products

that could be used to supplement the NERCrsquos long-term reliability assessments At the September 2010 NERC Planning Committee meeting the GTRPMTF Final Report on Methodology and Metrics was approved 1 The metrics recommended in the Final Report included the (i) annual Loss-of Load Hours (LOLH) (ii) Expected Unserved Energy (EUE) and (iii) Expected Unserved Energy as a percentage of Net Energy for Load (normalized EUE) for two common NERC Long Term Reliability Assessment forecasted years On August 12 2016 the NERC Planning Committee approved the Probabilistic Assessment Improvement Task Forcersquos Probabilistic Assessment Technical Guideline Document 2 The document identifies modeling guidelines and other recommendations to support consistent development of NERCrsquos probabilistic assessments and recommended the need to estimate or calculate monthly resource adequacy metrics as well as the annual metrics This 2018 Probabilistic Assessment (based on the NPCC 2018 Long Range Adequacy Overview) used the NERC 2018 Long-Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA) data This assessment provides the required NERC reliability indices for the NPCC Areas for the years of 2020 and 2022 In addition a Sensitivity Case was added to estimate Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) and Expected Unserved Energy (EUE) assuming a reduction of reserve margin in 2022 Increase load for each Area until the NERC LTRA Anticipated Reserve Margin is 23 of the calculated

base case and Increase load for each Area until the NERC LTRA Anticipated Reserve Margin is 13 of the calculated

base case value

1 See

httpwwwnerccomdocspcgtrpmtfGTRPMTF20Meth20amp20Metrics20Report20final20w20PC20approvals20revisionspdf

2 See httpwwwnerccomcommPCPAITFProbA20Technical20Guideline20Document20-20Finalpdf

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 1 Final Report

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PAGE INTRODUCTIONhelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 3 SUMMARY helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 5 SOFTWARE MODEL DESCRIPTION helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 8 DEMAND MODELING helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 12 CONTROLABLE CAPACITY DEMAND RESPONSE MODELING helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 15 RESOURCE MODELING helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 16 CAPACITY AND LOAD SUMMARY helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 20 TRANSMISSION helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 24 ASSISTANCE FROM EXTERNAL RESOURCES helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 31 DEFINITION OF LOSS-OF-LOAD EVENT helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 34 BASE CASE RESULTS helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 35 SENSITIVITY RESULTS helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 37 COMPARISON WITH 2016 ASSESSMENT helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 39

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 2 Final Report

APPENDICES

2018 LTRA Comparisons

PAGE

A Maritimes helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 42

B New England helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 46

C New York helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 50

D Ontario helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 54

E Quebec helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 58

F Definitions helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 62

G Monthly Results helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 63

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 3 Final Report

Introduction Geographically the NPCC Region covers nearly 12 million square miles and is populated by more than 56 million people NPCC US includes the six New England states and the state of New York NPCC Canada includes the provinces of Ontario Queacutebec and the Maritime provinces of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia In total from a net energy for load perspective NPCC is approximately 45 US and 55 Canadian With regard to Canada approximately 70 of Canadian net energy for load is within the NPCC Region At the December 2008 NERC Planning Committee (PC) meeting the PC approved the formation of a Generation amp Transmission Reliability Planning Models Task Force (GTRPMTF) with two main deliverables in the scope to evaluate approaches and models for composite generation and transmission reliability assessment and provide a common set of probabilistic reliability indices and recommend probabilistic-based work products

that could be used to supplement the NERCrsquos long-term reliability assessments At the September 2010 NERC Planning Committee meeting the GTRPMTF Final Report on Methodology and Metrics was approved 1 The metrics recommended in the Final Report included the (i) annual Loss-of Load Hours (LOLH) (ii) Expected Unserved Energy (EUE) and (iii) Expected Unserved Energy as a percentage of Net Energy for Load (normalized EUE) for two common NERC Long Term Reliability Assessment forecasted years On August 12 2016 the NERC Planning Committee approved the Probabilistic Assessment Improvement Task Forcersquos Probabilistic Assessment Technical Guideline Document 2 The document identifies modeling guidelines and other recommendations to support consistent development of NERCrsquos probabilistic assessments and recommended the need to estimate or calculate monthly resource adequacy metrics as well as the annual metrics This 2018 Probabilistic Assessment (based on the NPCC 2018 Long Range Adequacy Overview) used the NERC 2018 Long-Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA) data This assessment provides the required NERC reliability indices for the NPCC Areas for the years of 2020 and 2022 In addition a Sensitivity Case was added to estimate Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) and Expected Unserved Energy (EUE) assuming a reduction of reserve margin in 2022 Increase load for each Area until the NERC LTRA Anticipated Reserve Margin is 23 of the calculated

base case and Increase load for each Area until the NERC LTRA Anticipated Reserve Margin is 13 of the calculated

base case value

1 See

httpwwwnerccomdocspcgtrpmtfGTRPMTF20Meth20amp20Metrics20Report20final20w20PC20approvals20revisionspdf

2 See httpwwwnerccomcommPCPAITFProbA20Technical20Guideline20Document20-20Finalpdf

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 2 Final Report

APPENDICES

2018 LTRA Comparisons

PAGE

A Maritimes helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 42

B New England helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 46

C New York helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 50

D Ontario helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 54

E Quebec helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 58

F Definitions helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 62

G Monthly Results helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip 63

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 3 Final Report

Introduction Geographically the NPCC Region covers nearly 12 million square miles and is populated by more than 56 million people NPCC US includes the six New England states and the state of New York NPCC Canada includes the provinces of Ontario Queacutebec and the Maritime provinces of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia In total from a net energy for load perspective NPCC is approximately 45 US and 55 Canadian With regard to Canada approximately 70 of Canadian net energy for load is within the NPCC Region At the December 2008 NERC Planning Committee (PC) meeting the PC approved the formation of a Generation amp Transmission Reliability Planning Models Task Force (GTRPMTF) with two main deliverables in the scope to evaluate approaches and models for composite generation and transmission reliability assessment and provide a common set of probabilistic reliability indices and recommend probabilistic-based work products

that could be used to supplement the NERCrsquos long-term reliability assessments At the September 2010 NERC Planning Committee meeting the GTRPMTF Final Report on Methodology and Metrics was approved 1 The metrics recommended in the Final Report included the (i) annual Loss-of Load Hours (LOLH) (ii) Expected Unserved Energy (EUE) and (iii) Expected Unserved Energy as a percentage of Net Energy for Load (normalized EUE) for two common NERC Long Term Reliability Assessment forecasted years On August 12 2016 the NERC Planning Committee approved the Probabilistic Assessment Improvement Task Forcersquos Probabilistic Assessment Technical Guideline Document 2 The document identifies modeling guidelines and other recommendations to support consistent development of NERCrsquos probabilistic assessments and recommended the need to estimate or calculate monthly resource adequacy metrics as well as the annual metrics This 2018 Probabilistic Assessment (based on the NPCC 2018 Long Range Adequacy Overview) used the NERC 2018 Long-Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA) data This assessment provides the required NERC reliability indices for the NPCC Areas for the years of 2020 and 2022 In addition a Sensitivity Case was added to estimate Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) and Expected Unserved Energy (EUE) assuming a reduction of reserve margin in 2022 Increase load for each Area until the NERC LTRA Anticipated Reserve Margin is 23 of the calculated

base case and Increase load for each Area until the NERC LTRA Anticipated Reserve Margin is 13 of the calculated

base case value

1 See

httpwwwnerccomdocspcgtrpmtfGTRPMTF20Meth20amp20Metrics20Report20final20w20PC20approvals20revisionspdf

2 See httpwwwnerccomcommPCPAITFProbA20Technical20Guideline20Document20-20Finalpdf

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 3 Final Report

Introduction Geographically the NPCC Region covers nearly 12 million square miles and is populated by more than 56 million people NPCC US includes the six New England states and the state of New York NPCC Canada includes the provinces of Ontario Queacutebec and the Maritime provinces of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia In total from a net energy for load perspective NPCC is approximately 45 US and 55 Canadian With regard to Canada approximately 70 of Canadian net energy for load is within the NPCC Region At the December 2008 NERC Planning Committee (PC) meeting the PC approved the formation of a Generation amp Transmission Reliability Planning Models Task Force (GTRPMTF) with two main deliverables in the scope to evaluate approaches and models for composite generation and transmission reliability assessment and provide a common set of probabilistic reliability indices and recommend probabilistic-based work products

that could be used to supplement the NERCrsquos long-term reliability assessments At the September 2010 NERC Planning Committee meeting the GTRPMTF Final Report on Methodology and Metrics was approved 1 The metrics recommended in the Final Report included the (i) annual Loss-of Load Hours (LOLH) (ii) Expected Unserved Energy (EUE) and (iii) Expected Unserved Energy as a percentage of Net Energy for Load (normalized EUE) for two common NERC Long Term Reliability Assessment forecasted years On August 12 2016 the NERC Planning Committee approved the Probabilistic Assessment Improvement Task Forcersquos Probabilistic Assessment Technical Guideline Document 2 The document identifies modeling guidelines and other recommendations to support consistent development of NERCrsquos probabilistic assessments and recommended the need to estimate or calculate monthly resource adequacy metrics as well as the annual metrics This 2018 Probabilistic Assessment (based on the NPCC 2018 Long Range Adequacy Overview) used the NERC 2018 Long-Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA) data This assessment provides the required NERC reliability indices for the NPCC Areas for the years of 2020 and 2022 In addition a Sensitivity Case was added to estimate Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) and Expected Unserved Energy (EUE) assuming a reduction of reserve margin in 2022 Increase load for each Area until the NERC LTRA Anticipated Reserve Margin is 23 of the calculated

base case and Increase load for each Area until the NERC LTRA Anticipated Reserve Margin is 13 of the calculated

base case value

1 See

httpwwwnerccomdocspcgtrpmtfGTRPMTF20Meth20amp20Metrics20Report20final20w20PC20approvals20revisionspdf

2 See httpwwwnerccomcommPCPAITFProbA20Technical20Guideline20Document20-20Finalpdf

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 4 Final Report

General Electricrsquos (GE) Multi-Area Reliability Simulation (MARS) program was selected by NPCC for its analysis The Working Group retained GE Energy Consulting to conduct the simulations MARS version 3228 was used for the assessment Previous Probabilistic Assessments The 2012 Pilot Probabilistic Assessment 3 was approved by the NERC Planning Committee at their June 2012 meeting the pilot assessment recommended that the format of assessment results for future years and the assessment be conducted on a biennial basis

The 2013 Probabilistic Assessment (based on the NPCC 2012 Long Range Adequacy Overview 4) used the NERC 2012 Long-Term Reliability Assessment data This assessment provides the required reliability indices for study the years of 2014 and 2016 and includes complete coverage of all NERC assessment areas The 2014 Probabilistic Assessment (based on the NPCC 2014 Long Range Adequacy Overview) used the NERC 2014 Long-Term Reliability Assessment data 5 This assessment provides the required reliability indices for study the years of 2016 and 2018 and includes complete coverage of all NERC assessment areas In addition a No Emergency Operating Procedures Scenario case was added to estimate Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) and Expected Unserved Energy (EUE) while still maintaining Spinning amp Non-Spinning (10 amp 30 min) Operating Reserve requirements Other Operating Procedures may still be used in the calculation The 2016 Probabilistic Assessment 6 (based on the NPCC 2016 Long Range Adequacy Overview used the NERC 2016 Long-Term Reliability Assessment data This assessment provided the NERC required reliability indices for NPCC Areas for the years of 2018 and 2020

3 See httpwwwnerccomfiles2012_ProbApdf 4 See httpswwwnpccorgLibraryResource20AdequacyFormsPublic20Listaspx 5 See

httpswwwnpccorgLibraryResource20Adequacy2014LongRangeOverview(RCC20Approved20Dec202201014)pdf

6 See httpswwwnpccorgLibraryResource20Adequacy201620NERC20RAS20Probabilistic20Assessment20NPCC20Region20(February207202017)pdf

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 5 Final Report

Summary The estimated Expected Unserved Energy (EUE) and the estimated Loss-of-load hours (LOLH) shown in Table 1 (a-e) are based on the results of NPCCrsquos 2018 Long-Range Adequacy Overview 7 with assumptions consistent with those used for NPCC in the NERC 2018 Long-Term Reliability Assessment 8 The two years reported in this assessment are the years 2020 and 2022 Appendices A-E shows the seasonal capacity totals (summer and winter) ndash by subcategory for the assessment years with totals provided for Controllable capacity demand response Intermittent and energy-limited variable resources Traditional dispatchable capacity Sales Purchases and Coincident forecast 5050 peak seasonal demands (summer and winter) as reported in the NERC 2016

Long-Term Reliability Assessment In Table 1(a-e) the Forecast Capacity Resources shown equals the total installed capacity minus capacity derates plus net firm transactions the Forecast Operable Capacity Resources equals Forecast Capacity Resources minus the assumed generator forced outage rates Definitions used in the calculations are shown in Appendix F Base Case monthly results are shown in Appendix G

7 See httpswwwnpccorgLibraryResource20AdequacyFormsPublic20Listaspx 8 See httpwwwnerccompagephpcid=4|61

Table ndash 1a Annual Peak Demand and NERC LTRA Reported Capacity Resources ndash Quebec

Year

Net Energy for Load (GWh)

Forecast 5050 Peak

Demand (MW)

Forecast Capacity

Resources (MW)

Forecast Operable Capacity

Resources (MW)

Expected Unsupplied

Energy (EUE) (MWh)

Loss of Load Hours

(LOLH) (hoursyr)

Forecast Planning Reserve

Margin ()

Forecast Operable Reserve

Margin () 2020 192928 39057 41885 41184 0000 0000 114 95

2022 189157 39737 41627 40917 0000 0000 90 71

Table -1b Annual Peak Demand and NERC LTRA Reported Capacity Resources ndash Maritimes

Year

Net Energy for Load (GWh)

Forecast 5050 Peak

Demand (MW)

Forecast Capacity

Resources (MW)

Forecast Operable Capacity

Resources (MW)

Expected Unsupplied

Energy (EUE) (MWh)

Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyr)

Forecast Planning Reserve

Margin ()

Forecast Operable Reserve

Margin () 2020 27354 5317 6637 6762 0000 0000 248 2720

2022 27168 5257 6615 6708 0000 0000 258 2765

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 6 Final Report

Table - 1c Annual Peak Demand and NERC LTRA Repotred Capacity Resources ndash New England 9

Year

Net Energy for Load (GWh)

Forecast 5050 Peak

Demand (MW)

Forecast Capacity

Resources (MW)

Forecast Operable Capacity

Resources (MW)

Expected Unsupplied

Energy (EUE)

(MWh ndash ppm 10 )

Loss of Load Hours

(LOLH) (hoursyr)

Forecast Planning Reserve Margin

()

Forecast Operable Reserve Margin

() 2020 137934 29504 32177 30030 12526 - 0091 0027 293 207

2022 139828 29994 31157 29041 2713 - 0019 0007 277 190

Table - 1d Annual Peak Demand and NERC LTRA Reported Capacity Resources ndash New York 11

Year

Net Energy for Load (GWh)

Forecast 5050 Peak

Demand (MW)

Forecast Capacity

Resources (MW)

Forecast Operable Capacity

Resources (MW)

Expected Unsupplied Energy

(EUE) (MWh ndash ppm 12 )

Loss of Load Hours

(LOLH) (hoursyr)

Forecast Planning Reserve Margin

()

Forecast Operable Reserve

Margin () 2020 155567 32629 39419 36628 0073 - 0000 0001 241 153

2022 153898 32339 38558 35786 0032 - 0000 0000 225 137

Table - 1e Annual Peak Demand and NERC LTRA Reported Capacity Resources ndash Ontario 13

Year

Net Energy for Load (GWh)

Forecast 5050 Peak

Demand (MW)

Forecast Capacity

Resources (MW)

Forecast Operable Capacity

Resources (MW)

Expected Unsupplied

Energy (EUE) (MWh)

Loss of Load Hours

(LOLH) (hoursyr)

Forecast Planning Reserve

Margin ()

Forecast Operable Reserve Margin

() 2020 133003 22085 25968 24413 0000 0000 176 105

2022 132435 22098 26131 24634 0000 0000 182 115

Table 2 shows the percentage difference between the amount of annual energy estimated by the GE MARS program and the amount reported in the NERC 2018 Long Term Reliability Assessment This is primarily due to the differences in the NPCC Area assumptions used for their respective energy forecasts The GE MARS total estimated NPCC annual energy is within 18 of the sum of the reported LTRA NPCC Area annual energy forecasts14

9 The Total Internal Demand reported is higher than reported in the NERC LTRA due to the treatment of passive demand response in order

to provide a proper comparison with the NERC LTRA the data in Appendix B was adjusted to report the load demand response the same way as reported in the LTRA

10 MWh of EUE per Million MWh of Annual Load Energy 11 Assumes 1739 MW of wind resources reported to NPCC by the NYISO 12 MWh of EUE per Million MWh of Annual Load Energy 13 The same resources are used as in the LTRA the capacity reported for nuclear generation is not reduced for long‐term refurbishment

outages but instead is captured as a scheduled unavailability in the model 14 The simulated Net Energy of Load may differ from the Net Energy for Load as reported in the LTRA due to the

assumptions used the development of a chronological area load model from the area load forecasts

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 7 Final Report

Table 2 - Comparison of Energies Modeled (Annual GWh) Year 2020 2022

Quebec

MARS 192928 189157 2018 LTRA 188485 190694

(MARS-LTRA) 4443 -1537 (MARS-LTRA)LTRA 236 -081

Maritimes

MARS 27354 27168 2018 LTRA 27353 27185

(MARS-LTRA) 1 -17 (MARS-LTRA)LTRA 000 -006

New England

MARS 113696 110070 2018 LTRA 120395 117870

(MARS-LTRA) -6699 -7800 (MARS-LTRA)LTRA -556 -662

New York

MARS 154344 152686 2018 LTRA 155567 153898

(MARS-LTRA) -1223 -1212 (MARS-LTRA)LTRA -079 -079

Ontario

MARS 133003 132435 2018 LTRA 133687 133245

(MARS-LTRA) -684 -809 (MARS-LTRA)LTRA -051 -061

NPCC MARS 621325 611518

2018 LTRA 625487 622892 (MARS-LTRA) -4162 -11374

(MARS-LTRA)LTRA -067 -183

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 8 Final Report

Software Model Description Multi-Area Reliability Simulation Program Description General Electricrsquos Multi-Area Reliability Simulation (MARS) program 15 allows assessment of the reliability of a generation system comprised of any number of interconnected areas

Modeling Technique A sequential Monte Carlo simulation forms the basis for MARS The Monte Carlo method allows for many different types of generation and demand-side options

In the sequential Monte Carlo simulation chronological system histories are developed by combining randomly generated operating histories of the generating units with the inter-area transfer limits and the hourly chronological loads Consequently the system can be modeled in detail with accurate recognition of random events such as equipment failures as well as deterministic rules and policies that govern system operation

Reliability Indices The following reliability indices are available on both an isolated (zero ties between areas) and interconnected (using the input tie ratings between areas) basis Daily Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE - daysyear) Hourly LOLE (hoursyear) Loss of Energy Expectation (LOEE -MWhyear) Frequency of outage (outagesyear) Duration of outage (hoursoutage) and Need for initiating Operating Procedures (daysyear or daysperiod)

The use of Monte Carlo simulation allows for the calculation of probability distributions in addition to expected values for all the reliability indices These values can be calculated both with and without load forecast uncertainty

The MARS program probabilistically models uncertainty in forecast load and generator unit availability The program calculates expected values of Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) and can estimate each Areas expected exposure to their Emergency Operating Procedures Scenario analysis is used to study the impacts of extreme weather conditions variations in expected unit in-service dates overruns in planned scheduled maintenance or transmission limitations Resource Allocation Among Areas The first step in calculating the reliability indices is to compute the area margins on an isolated basis for each hour For each hour the total available capacity in the area is subtracted from the load demand If an area has a positive or zero margin then it has sufficient capacity to meet its load If the area margin is negative the load exceeds the capacity available to serve it and the area is in a loss-of-load situation If there are any areas that have a negative margin after the isolated area margins have been adjusted for curtailable contracts the program will attempt to satisfy those deficiencies with capacity from areas that

15 See httpswwwgeenergyconsultingcompractice-areasoftware-productsmars

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 7 Final Report

Table 2 - Comparison of Energies Modeled (Annual GWh) Year 2020 2022

Quebec

MARS 192928 189157 2018 LTRA 188485 190694

(MARS-LTRA) 4443 -1537 (MARS-LTRA)LTRA 236 -081

Maritimes

MARS 27354 27168 2018 LTRA 27353 27185

(MARS-LTRA) 1 -17 (MARS-LTRA)LTRA 000 -006

New England

MARS 113696 110070 2018 LTRA 120395 117870

(MARS-LTRA) -6699 -7800 (MARS-LTRA)LTRA -556 -662

New York

MARS 154344 152686 2018 LTRA 155567 153898

(MARS-LTRA) -1223 -1212 (MARS-LTRA)LTRA -079 -079

Ontario

MARS 133003 132435 2018 LTRA 133687 133245

(MARS-LTRA) -684 -809 (MARS-LTRA)LTRA -051 -061

NPCC MARS 621325 611518

2018 LTRA 625487 622892 (MARS-LTRA) -4162 -11374

(MARS-LTRA)LTRA -067 -183

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 8 Final Report

Software Model Description Multi-Area Reliability Simulation Program Description General Electricrsquos Multi-Area Reliability Simulation (MARS) program 15 allows assessment of the reliability of a generation system comprised of any number of interconnected areas

Modeling Technique A sequential Monte Carlo simulation forms the basis for MARS The Monte Carlo method allows for many different types of generation and demand-side options

In the sequential Monte Carlo simulation chronological system histories are developed by combining randomly generated operating histories of the generating units with the inter-area transfer limits and the hourly chronological loads Consequently the system can be modeled in detail with accurate recognition of random events such as equipment failures as well as deterministic rules and policies that govern system operation

Reliability Indices The following reliability indices are available on both an isolated (zero ties between areas) and interconnected (using the input tie ratings between areas) basis Daily Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE - daysyear) Hourly LOLE (hoursyear) Loss of Energy Expectation (LOEE -MWhyear) Frequency of outage (outagesyear) Duration of outage (hoursoutage) and Need for initiating Operating Procedures (daysyear or daysperiod)

The use of Monte Carlo simulation allows for the calculation of probability distributions in addition to expected values for all the reliability indices These values can be calculated both with and without load forecast uncertainty

The MARS program probabilistically models uncertainty in forecast load and generator unit availability The program calculates expected values of Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) and can estimate each Areas expected exposure to their Emergency Operating Procedures Scenario analysis is used to study the impacts of extreme weather conditions variations in expected unit in-service dates overruns in planned scheduled maintenance or transmission limitations Resource Allocation Among Areas The first step in calculating the reliability indices is to compute the area margins on an isolated basis for each hour For each hour the total available capacity in the area is subtracted from the load demand If an area has a positive or zero margin then it has sufficient capacity to meet its load If the area margin is negative the load exceeds the capacity available to serve it and the area is in a loss-of-load situation If there are any areas that have a negative margin after the isolated area margins have been adjusted for curtailable contracts the program will attempt to satisfy those deficiencies with capacity from areas that

15 See httpswwwgeenergyconsultingcompractice-areasoftware-productsmars

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 8 Final Report

Software Model Description Multi-Area Reliability Simulation Program Description General Electricrsquos Multi-Area Reliability Simulation (MARS) program 15 allows assessment of the reliability of a generation system comprised of any number of interconnected areas

Modeling Technique A sequential Monte Carlo simulation forms the basis for MARS The Monte Carlo method allows for many different types of generation and demand-side options

In the sequential Monte Carlo simulation chronological system histories are developed by combining randomly generated operating histories of the generating units with the inter-area transfer limits and the hourly chronological loads Consequently the system can be modeled in detail with accurate recognition of random events such as equipment failures as well as deterministic rules and policies that govern system operation

Reliability Indices The following reliability indices are available on both an isolated (zero ties between areas) and interconnected (using the input tie ratings between areas) basis Daily Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE - daysyear) Hourly LOLE (hoursyear) Loss of Energy Expectation (LOEE -MWhyear) Frequency of outage (outagesyear) Duration of outage (hoursoutage) and Need for initiating Operating Procedures (daysyear or daysperiod)

The use of Monte Carlo simulation allows for the calculation of probability distributions in addition to expected values for all the reliability indices These values can be calculated both with and without load forecast uncertainty

The MARS program probabilistically models uncertainty in forecast load and generator unit availability The program calculates expected values of Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) and can estimate each Areas expected exposure to their Emergency Operating Procedures Scenario analysis is used to study the impacts of extreme weather conditions variations in expected unit in-service dates overruns in planned scheduled maintenance or transmission limitations Resource Allocation Among Areas The first step in calculating the reliability indices is to compute the area margins on an isolated basis for each hour For each hour the total available capacity in the area is subtracted from the load demand If an area has a positive or zero margin then it has sufficient capacity to meet its load If the area margin is negative the load exceeds the capacity available to serve it and the area is in a loss-of-load situation If there are any areas that have a negative margin after the isolated area margins have been adjusted for curtailable contracts the program will attempt to satisfy those deficiencies with capacity from areas that

15 See httpswwwgeenergyconsultingcompractice-areasoftware-productsmars

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 9 Final Report

have positive margins Two methods are available for determining how the reserves from areas with excess capacity are allocated among the areas that are deficient In the first approach the user specifies the order in which an area with excess resources provides assistance to areas that are deficient The second method shares the available excess reserves among the deficient areas in proportion to the size of their shortfalls The second method was used in this assessment The user can also specify that areas within a pool will have priority over outside areas In this case an area must assist all deficient areas within the same pool regardless of the order of areas in the priority list before assisting areas outside of the pool Pool-sharing agreements can also be modeled in which pools provide assistance to other pools according to a specified order

Generation MARS has the capability to model the following different types of resources Thermal Energy-limited Cogeneration Energy-storage and Demand-side management

An energy-limited unit can be modeled stochastically as a thermal unit with an energy probability distribution (Type 1 energy-limited unit) or deterministically as a load modifier (Type 2 energy-limited unit) Cogeneration units are modeled as thermal units with an associated hourly load demand Energy-storage and demand-side management impacts are modeled as load modifiers

For each unit modeled the installation and retirement dates and planned maintenance requirements are specified Other data such as maximum rating available capacity states state transition rates and net modification of the hourly loads are input depending on the unit type

The planned outages for all types of units in MARS can be specified by the user or automatically scheduled by the program on a weekly basis The program schedules planned maintenance to levelize reserves on an area pool or system basis MARS also has the option of reading a maintenance schedule developed by a previous run and modifying it as specified by the user through any of the maintenance input data This schedule can then be saved for use by subsequent runs User specified maintenance was used in the assessment

Thermal Units In addition to the data described previously thermal units (including Type 1 energy-limited units and cogeneration) require data describing the available capacity states in which the unit can operate This is input by specifying the maximum rating of each unit and the rating of each capacity state as a per unit of the units maximum rating A maximum of eleven capacity states are allowed for each unit representing decreasing amounts of available capacity as governed by the outages of various unit components Because MARS is based on a sequential Monte Carlo simulation it uses state transition rates rather than state probabilities to describe the random forced outages of the thermal units State probabilities give the probability of a unit being in a given capacity state at any particular time and can be used if you assume that the units capacity state for a given hour is independent of its state at any other hour Sequential

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 10 Final Report

Monte Carlo simulation recognizes the fact that a units capacity state in a given hour is dependent on its state in previous hours and influences its state in future hours It thus requires the additional information that is contained in the transition rate data

For each unit a transition rate matrix is input that shows the transition rates to go from each capacity state to each other capacity state The transition rate from state A to state B is defined as the number of transitions from A to B per unit of time in state A

Number of Transitions from A to B TR (A to B) = _____________________________

Total Time in State A

If detailed transition rate data for the units is not available MARS can approximate the transition rates from the partial forced outage rates and an assumed number of transitions between pairs of capacity states Transition rates calculated in this manner will give accurate results for LOLE and LOEE but it is important to remember that the assumed number of transitions between states will have an impact on the time-correlated indices such as frequency and duration

Energy-Limited Units Type 1 energy-limited units are modeled as thermal units whose capacity is limited on a random basis for reasons other than the forced outages on the unit This unit type can be used to model a thermal unit whose operation may be restricted due to the unavailability of fuel or a hydro unit with limited water availability It can also be used to model technologies such as wind or solar where the capacity may be available but the energy output is limited by weather conditions

Type 2 energy-limited units are modeled as deterministic load modifiers They are typically used to model conventional hydro units for which the available water is assumed to be known with little or no uncertainty This type can also be used to model certain types of contracts A Type 2 energy-limited unit is described by specifying a maximum rating a minimum rating and a monthly available energy This data can be changed on a monthly basis The unit is scheduled on a monthly basis with the units minimum rating dispatched for all of the hours in the month The remaining capacity and energy can be scheduled in one of two ways In the first method it is scheduled deterministically so as to reduce the peak loads as much as possible In the second approach the peak-shaving portion of the unit is scheduled only in those hours in which the available thermal capacity is not sufficient to meet the load if there is sufficient thermal capacity the energy of the Type 2 energy-limited units will be saved for use in some future hour when it is needed Cogeneration MARS models cogeneration as a thermal unit with an associated load demand The difference between the units available capacity and its load requirements represents the amount of capacity that the unit can contribute to the system The load demand is input by specifying the hourly loads for a typical week (168 hourly loads for Monday through Sunday) This load profile can be changed on a monthly basis Two types of cogeneration are modeled in the program the difference being whether or not the system provides back-up generation when the unit is unable to meet its native load demand

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 11 Final Report

Energy-Storage and DSM Energy-storage units and demand-side management impacts are both modeled as deterministic load modifiers For each such unit the user specifies a net hourly load modification for a typical week which is subtracted from the hourly loads for the units area

Transmission System The transmission system between interconnected areas is modeled through transfer limits on the interfaces between pairs of areas The transfer limits are specified for each direction of the interface and can be changed on a monthly basis Random forced outages on the interfaces are modeled in the same manner as the outages on thermal units through the use of state transition rates

Contracts Contracts are used to model firm scheduled interchanges of capacity between areas in the system In addition the program schedules any excess capacity in an area in a given hour to provide emergency assistance to a deficient area Each contract can be identified as either firm or curtailable Firm contracts will be scheduled regardless of whether or not the sending area has sufficient resources on an isolated basis but they will be curtailed because of interface transfer limits Curtailable contracts will be only to the extent that the exporting Area has the necessary resources on its own or can obtain them as emergency assistance from other areas Firm contracts and emergency assistance were modeled in this assessment

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 12 Final Report

Demand Modeling The loads for each area were modeled on an hourly chronological basis The MARS program modified the input hourly loads through time to meet each Areas specified annual or monthly peaks and energies

Load Shape For the past several years the Working Group has been using different load shapes for the different seasonal assessments The Working Group considered the 2002 load shape to be representative of a reasonable expected coincidence of area load for the summer assessments Likewise the 2003 ndash 2004 load shape has been used for the winter assessments The selection of these load shapes was based on a review of the weather characteristics and corresponding loads of the years from 2002 through 2008 a 200203 load shape representative of a winter weather pattern with a typical expectation of cold days

and a 200304 load shape representative of a winter weather pattern that includes a consecutive period of cold

days Review of the results for both load shape assumptions indicated only slight differences in the results The Working Group agreed that the weather patterns associated with the 200304 load shape are representative of weather conditions that stress the system appropriate for use in future winter assessments Upon review of subsequent winter weather experience the Working Group agreed that the 200304 load shape assumption be again used for this analysis For a study such as this that focuses on the entire year rather than a single season the Working Group agreed to develop a composite load shape from the historical hourly loads for 2002 2003 and 2004 January through March of the composite shape was based on the data for January through March of 2004 The months of April through September were based on those months for 2002 and October through December was based on the 2003 data Before the composite load model was developed by combining the various pieces the hourly loads for 2003 and 2004 were adjusted by the ratios of their annual energy to the annual energy for 2002 This adjustment removed the load growth that had occurred from 2002 from the 2003 and 2004 loads so as to create a more consistent load shape throughout the year The resulting load shape was then adjusted through the study period to match the monthly or annual peak and energy forecasts The impacts of Demand-Side Management programs were included in each Areas load forecast Demand Response New England Passive and active demand resources participate in the New England Forward Capacity Market (FCM) and are represented as supply-side resources in this study The Qualified Capacity of passive demand resources under the FCM are used for the years 2017 to 2019 and a forecast amount is used for the future years For the active demand resources the study assumes the actual amount procured under the FCM

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 13 Final Report

New York The Installed Capacity (ICAP) Special Case Resource program allows demand resources that meet certification requirements to offer Unforced Capacity (ldquoUCAPrsquo) to Load Serving Entities The load reduction capability of Special Case Resources (ldquoSCRsrdquo) may be sold in the ICAP Market just like any other ICAP Resource however SCRs participate through Responsible Interface Parties (RIPs) which serve as the interface between the New York ISO and the resources RIPs also act as aggregators of SCRs SCRs that have sold ICAP are obligated to reduce their system load when called upon by the New York ISO with two or more hours notice provided the NYISO notifies the Responsible Interface Party a day ahead of the possibility of such a call In addition enrolled SCRs are subject to testing each Capability Period to verify their capability to achieve the amount of enrolled load reduction Failure of an SCR to reduce load during an event or test results in a reduction in the amount of UCAP that can be sold in future periods and could result in penalties assessed to the applicable RIP in accordance with the ICAPSCR program rules and procedures Curtailments are called by the NYISO when reserve shortages are anticipated or during other emergency operating conditions Resources may register for either the Emergency Demand Response Program (EDRP) or ICAPSCR but not both In addition to capacity payments RIPs are eligible for an energy payment during an event using the same calculation methodology as EDRP resources The EDRP provides demand resources an opportunity to earn the greater of $500MWh or the prevailing locational-based marginal price for energy consumption curtailments provided when the NYISO calls on the resource Resources must be enrolled through Curtailment Service Providers which serve as the interface between the New York ISO and resources in order to participate in EDRP There are no obligations for enrolled EDRP resources to curtail their load during an EDRP event SCRs and EDRPs are modeled as an operating procedure step activated to minimize the probability of customer load disconnection The MARS Program models the New York ISO operations practice of only activating operating procedures in zones from which are capable of being delivered Ontario Ontariorsquos Demand Response is comprised of the following programs DR auction DR pilot peaksaver dispatchable loads Capacity Based Demand Response (CBDR) time‐of‐use (TOU) tariffs and the Industrial Conservation Initiative (ICI) Dispatchable loads and CBDR resources can be dispatched in the same way that generators are whereas TOU ICI conservation impacts and embedded generation output are factored into the demand forecast as load modifiers Queacutebec Demand Response (DR) programs in the Queacutebec Area specifically designed for peak-load reduction during winter operating periods are mainly interruptible load programs

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 14 Final Report

Maritimes Demand Response in the Maritimes Area is currently comprised of contracted interruptible loads New York Special Case Resources and Emergency Demand Response Programs Special Case Resources (SCRs) are loads capable of being interrupted and distributed generators rated at 100 kW or higher that are not directly telemetered SCRs offer load curtailment as ICAP resources and provide energyload curtailment when activated in accordance with the New York ISO Emergency Operating Manual SCRs are required to respond to a deployment request for a minimum of four hours however there is no limit to the number of calls or the time of day in which the Special Case Resources may be deployed SCRs receive a capacity payment for load curtailment capability sold in the ICAP market and an energy payment for energy performance during a demand response event The Emergency Demand Response Program (EDRP) is a voluntary reliability program that allows registered interruptible loads and standby generators when activated in accordance with the NYISO Emergency Operating Manual EDRP resources are only paid for their energy performance during a demand response event There is no limit to the number of calls or the time of day in which EDRP resources may be deployed Queacutebec In Queacutebec Demand Response (DR) programs are specifically designed for peak-load reduction during winter operating periods DR consists of interruptible demand programs mainly for large industrial customers DR programs are usually used in situations where either the load is expected to reach high levels or when resources are expected to be insufficient to meet peak load demand Interruptible load program specifications differ among programs and participating customers They usually allow for one or two calls for reduction per day and between 40 to 100 hours load interruption per winter period Interruptible load programs are planned with participating industrial customers with whom contracts are signed Before the peak period generally during the fall season all customers are regularly contacted in order to reaffirm their commitment to provide capacity when called during peak periods

Maritimes Interruptible loads are forecast on a weekly basis and are available for use when corrective action is required within the Area Load Forecast Uncertainty Load forecast uncertainty was also modeled The effects on reliability of uncertainties in the load forecast due to weather and economic conditions were captured through the load forecast uncertainty model in MARS The program computes the reliability indices at each of the specified load levels (for this study seven load levels were modeled) and calculates weighted-average values based on input probabilities of occurrence The per unit variations in Area and sub-Area load are provided by each NPCC Area and can vary on a monthly and annual basis For example Table 3(a) shows the values assumed for January 2019 corresponding to the assumed occurrence of the NPCC system peak load (assuming the composite load

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 15 Final Report

shape) Table 3(a) also shows the probability of occurrence assumed for each of the seven load levels modeled Similarly Table 3(b) shows the corresponding values for July 2019

In computing the reliability indices all of the areas were evaluated simultaneously at the corresponding load level the assumption being that the factors giving rise to the uncertainty affect all of the areas at the same time The amount of the effect can vary according to the variations in the load levels

For this study the reliability indices were calculated for the expected load conditions derived from computing the reliability at each of the seven load levels modeled and computing a weighted-average expected value based on the specified probabilities of occurrence

Table 3(a) Per Unit Variation in Load Assumed (Month of January 2019)

Table 3(b) Per Unit Variation in Load Assumed (Month of August 2019)

Behind-the-meter generation was modeled as netted from load

Controllable Capacity Demand Response Modeling Each area takes defined steps as their reserve levels approach critical levels Table 4 shows these steps consisting of those load control and generation supplements that can be implemented before firm load has to be disconnected Load control measures could include disconnecting or reducing interruptible loads making public appeals to reduce demand andor implementing voltage reductions Other measures could include calling on generation available under emergency conditions andor reducing operating reserves

Area Per-Unit Variation in Load HQ 1088 1088 1044 1000 0958 0916 0909 MT 1138 1092 1046 1000 0954 0908 0862 NE 1093 1038 0997 0963 0940 0850 0800 NY 1043 1031 1016 0998 0975 0944 0905 ON 1058 1043 1023 1000 0972 0944 0928

Prob 00062 00606 02417 03830 02417 00606 00062

Area Per-Unit Variation in Load HQ 1064 1064 1032 1000 0975 0954 0933 MT 1138 1092 1046 1000 0954 0908 0862 NE 1260 1130 0974 0974 0897 0886 0851 NY 1120 1086 1043 0992 0935 0877 0822 ON 1152 1108 1052 0999 0951 0903 0857

Prob 00062 00606 02417 03830 02417 00606 00062

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 16 Final Report

The need for an area to begin these operating procedures is modeled in MARS by evaluating the daily probabilistic expectation at specified margin states The user specifies these margin states for each area in terms of the benefits realized from each emergency measure which can be expressed in MW as a per unit of the original or modified load and as a per unit of the available capacity for the hour

Table 4

NPCC Operating Procedures to Mitigate Resource Shortages Peak Month 2019 Load Relief Assumptions ndash MW

Actions HQ

(Jan) MT

(Jan) NE

(Aug) NY

(Aug) ON

(Jul) 1 Curtail Load Appeals RT-DRSCREDRP SCR Load Man Volt Red

1460 - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- -

85716

020 of load

-

1 of load

- -

2 No 30-min Reserves 500 233 625 655 473

3 Voltage Reduction Interruptible Loads

250 -

-

272

412 -

111 of load

122

-

533

4 No 10-min Reserves General Public Appeals

750 -

505 -

- -

-

81

945 -

5 5 Voltage Reduction No 10-min Reserves AppealsCurtailments

- - -

- - -

-

980 -

-

1310 -

23 of load

- -

Resource Modeling Generator Unit Availability Details regarding each NPCC Arearsquos assumptions for generator unit availability are described in the respective Arearsquos most recent NPCC Comprehensive Review of Resource Adequacy 17 New England This probabilistic assessment reflects New England generating unit availability assumptions based upon historical performance over the prior five-year period Unit availability modeled reflects the projected scheduled maintenance and forced outages Individual generating unit maintenance assumptions are based upon the approved maintenance schedules Individual generating unit forced 16 Derated value shown accounts for assumed availability 17 See httpswwwnpccorgLibraryResource20AdequacyFormsPublic20Listaspx

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 10 Final Report

Monte Carlo simulation recognizes the fact that a units capacity state in a given hour is dependent on its state in previous hours and influences its state in future hours It thus requires the additional information that is contained in the transition rate data

For each unit a transition rate matrix is input that shows the transition rates to go from each capacity state to each other capacity state The transition rate from state A to state B is defined as the number of transitions from A to B per unit of time in state A

Number of Transitions from A to B TR (A to B) = _____________________________

Total Time in State A

If detailed transition rate data for the units is not available MARS can approximate the transition rates from the partial forced outage rates and an assumed number of transitions between pairs of capacity states Transition rates calculated in this manner will give accurate results for LOLE and LOEE but it is important to remember that the assumed number of transitions between states will have an impact on the time-correlated indices such as frequency and duration

Energy-Limited Units Type 1 energy-limited units are modeled as thermal units whose capacity is limited on a random basis for reasons other than the forced outages on the unit This unit type can be used to model a thermal unit whose operation may be restricted due to the unavailability of fuel or a hydro unit with limited water availability It can also be used to model technologies such as wind or solar where the capacity may be available but the energy output is limited by weather conditions

Type 2 energy-limited units are modeled as deterministic load modifiers They are typically used to model conventional hydro units for which the available water is assumed to be known with little or no uncertainty This type can also be used to model certain types of contracts A Type 2 energy-limited unit is described by specifying a maximum rating a minimum rating and a monthly available energy This data can be changed on a monthly basis The unit is scheduled on a monthly basis with the units minimum rating dispatched for all of the hours in the month The remaining capacity and energy can be scheduled in one of two ways In the first method it is scheduled deterministically so as to reduce the peak loads as much as possible In the second approach the peak-shaving portion of the unit is scheduled only in those hours in which the available thermal capacity is not sufficient to meet the load if there is sufficient thermal capacity the energy of the Type 2 energy-limited units will be saved for use in some future hour when it is needed Cogeneration MARS models cogeneration as a thermal unit with an associated load demand The difference between the units available capacity and its load requirements represents the amount of capacity that the unit can contribute to the system The load demand is input by specifying the hourly loads for a typical week (168 hourly loads for Monday through Sunday) This load profile can be changed on a monthly basis Two types of cogeneration are modeled in the program the difference being whether or not the system provides back-up generation when the unit is unable to meet its native load demand

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 11 Final Report

Energy-Storage and DSM Energy-storage units and demand-side management impacts are both modeled as deterministic load modifiers For each such unit the user specifies a net hourly load modification for a typical week which is subtracted from the hourly loads for the units area

Transmission System The transmission system between interconnected areas is modeled through transfer limits on the interfaces between pairs of areas The transfer limits are specified for each direction of the interface and can be changed on a monthly basis Random forced outages on the interfaces are modeled in the same manner as the outages on thermal units through the use of state transition rates

Contracts Contracts are used to model firm scheduled interchanges of capacity between areas in the system In addition the program schedules any excess capacity in an area in a given hour to provide emergency assistance to a deficient area Each contract can be identified as either firm or curtailable Firm contracts will be scheduled regardless of whether or not the sending area has sufficient resources on an isolated basis but they will be curtailed because of interface transfer limits Curtailable contracts will be only to the extent that the exporting Area has the necessary resources on its own or can obtain them as emergency assistance from other areas Firm contracts and emergency assistance were modeled in this assessment

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 12 Final Report

Demand Modeling The loads for each area were modeled on an hourly chronological basis The MARS program modified the input hourly loads through time to meet each Areas specified annual or monthly peaks and energies

Load Shape For the past several years the Working Group has been using different load shapes for the different seasonal assessments The Working Group considered the 2002 load shape to be representative of a reasonable expected coincidence of area load for the summer assessments Likewise the 2003 ndash 2004 load shape has been used for the winter assessments The selection of these load shapes was based on a review of the weather characteristics and corresponding loads of the years from 2002 through 2008 a 200203 load shape representative of a winter weather pattern with a typical expectation of cold days

and a 200304 load shape representative of a winter weather pattern that includes a consecutive period of cold

days Review of the results for both load shape assumptions indicated only slight differences in the results The Working Group agreed that the weather patterns associated with the 200304 load shape are representative of weather conditions that stress the system appropriate for use in future winter assessments Upon review of subsequent winter weather experience the Working Group agreed that the 200304 load shape assumption be again used for this analysis For a study such as this that focuses on the entire year rather than a single season the Working Group agreed to develop a composite load shape from the historical hourly loads for 2002 2003 and 2004 January through March of the composite shape was based on the data for January through March of 2004 The months of April through September were based on those months for 2002 and October through December was based on the 2003 data Before the composite load model was developed by combining the various pieces the hourly loads for 2003 and 2004 were adjusted by the ratios of their annual energy to the annual energy for 2002 This adjustment removed the load growth that had occurred from 2002 from the 2003 and 2004 loads so as to create a more consistent load shape throughout the year The resulting load shape was then adjusted through the study period to match the monthly or annual peak and energy forecasts The impacts of Demand-Side Management programs were included in each Areas load forecast Demand Response New England Passive and active demand resources participate in the New England Forward Capacity Market (FCM) and are represented as supply-side resources in this study The Qualified Capacity of passive demand resources under the FCM are used for the years 2017 to 2019 and a forecast amount is used for the future years For the active demand resources the study assumes the actual amount procured under the FCM

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 13 Final Report

New York The Installed Capacity (ICAP) Special Case Resource program allows demand resources that meet certification requirements to offer Unforced Capacity (ldquoUCAPrsquo) to Load Serving Entities The load reduction capability of Special Case Resources (ldquoSCRsrdquo) may be sold in the ICAP Market just like any other ICAP Resource however SCRs participate through Responsible Interface Parties (RIPs) which serve as the interface between the New York ISO and the resources RIPs also act as aggregators of SCRs SCRs that have sold ICAP are obligated to reduce their system load when called upon by the New York ISO with two or more hours notice provided the NYISO notifies the Responsible Interface Party a day ahead of the possibility of such a call In addition enrolled SCRs are subject to testing each Capability Period to verify their capability to achieve the amount of enrolled load reduction Failure of an SCR to reduce load during an event or test results in a reduction in the amount of UCAP that can be sold in future periods and could result in penalties assessed to the applicable RIP in accordance with the ICAPSCR program rules and procedures Curtailments are called by the NYISO when reserve shortages are anticipated or during other emergency operating conditions Resources may register for either the Emergency Demand Response Program (EDRP) or ICAPSCR but not both In addition to capacity payments RIPs are eligible for an energy payment during an event using the same calculation methodology as EDRP resources The EDRP provides demand resources an opportunity to earn the greater of $500MWh or the prevailing locational-based marginal price for energy consumption curtailments provided when the NYISO calls on the resource Resources must be enrolled through Curtailment Service Providers which serve as the interface between the New York ISO and resources in order to participate in EDRP There are no obligations for enrolled EDRP resources to curtail their load during an EDRP event SCRs and EDRPs are modeled as an operating procedure step activated to minimize the probability of customer load disconnection The MARS Program models the New York ISO operations practice of only activating operating procedures in zones from which are capable of being delivered Ontario Ontariorsquos Demand Response is comprised of the following programs DR auction DR pilot peaksaver dispatchable loads Capacity Based Demand Response (CBDR) time‐of‐use (TOU) tariffs and the Industrial Conservation Initiative (ICI) Dispatchable loads and CBDR resources can be dispatched in the same way that generators are whereas TOU ICI conservation impacts and embedded generation output are factored into the demand forecast as load modifiers Queacutebec Demand Response (DR) programs in the Queacutebec Area specifically designed for peak-load reduction during winter operating periods are mainly interruptible load programs

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 14 Final Report

Maritimes Demand Response in the Maritimes Area is currently comprised of contracted interruptible loads New York Special Case Resources and Emergency Demand Response Programs Special Case Resources (SCRs) are loads capable of being interrupted and distributed generators rated at 100 kW or higher that are not directly telemetered SCRs offer load curtailment as ICAP resources and provide energyload curtailment when activated in accordance with the New York ISO Emergency Operating Manual SCRs are required to respond to a deployment request for a minimum of four hours however there is no limit to the number of calls or the time of day in which the Special Case Resources may be deployed SCRs receive a capacity payment for load curtailment capability sold in the ICAP market and an energy payment for energy performance during a demand response event The Emergency Demand Response Program (EDRP) is a voluntary reliability program that allows registered interruptible loads and standby generators when activated in accordance with the NYISO Emergency Operating Manual EDRP resources are only paid for their energy performance during a demand response event There is no limit to the number of calls or the time of day in which EDRP resources may be deployed Queacutebec In Queacutebec Demand Response (DR) programs are specifically designed for peak-load reduction during winter operating periods DR consists of interruptible demand programs mainly for large industrial customers DR programs are usually used in situations where either the load is expected to reach high levels or when resources are expected to be insufficient to meet peak load demand Interruptible load program specifications differ among programs and participating customers They usually allow for one or two calls for reduction per day and between 40 to 100 hours load interruption per winter period Interruptible load programs are planned with participating industrial customers with whom contracts are signed Before the peak period generally during the fall season all customers are regularly contacted in order to reaffirm their commitment to provide capacity when called during peak periods

Maritimes Interruptible loads are forecast on a weekly basis and are available for use when corrective action is required within the Area Load Forecast Uncertainty Load forecast uncertainty was also modeled The effects on reliability of uncertainties in the load forecast due to weather and economic conditions were captured through the load forecast uncertainty model in MARS The program computes the reliability indices at each of the specified load levels (for this study seven load levels were modeled) and calculates weighted-average values based on input probabilities of occurrence The per unit variations in Area and sub-Area load are provided by each NPCC Area and can vary on a monthly and annual basis For example Table 3(a) shows the values assumed for January 2019 corresponding to the assumed occurrence of the NPCC system peak load (assuming the composite load

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 15 Final Report

shape) Table 3(a) also shows the probability of occurrence assumed for each of the seven load levels modeled Similarly Table 3(b) shows the corresponding values for July 2019

In computing the reliability indices all of the areas were evaluated simultaneously at the corresponding load level the assumption being that the factors giving rise to the uncertainty affect all of the areas at the same time The amount of the effect can vary according to the variations in the load levels

For this study the reliability indices were calculated for the expected load conditions derived from computing the reliability at each of the seven load levels modeled and computing a weighted-average expected value based on the specified probabilities of occurrence

Table 3(a) Per Unit Variation in Load Assumed (Month of January 2019)

Table 3(b) Per Unit Variation in Load Assumed (Month of August 2019)

Behind-the-meter generation was modeled as netted from load

Controllable Capacity Demand Response Modeling Each area takes defined steps as their reserve levels approach critical levels Table 4 shows these steps consisting of those load control and generation supplements that can be implemented before firm load has to be disconnected Load control measures could include disconnecting or reducing interruptible loads making public appeals to reduce demand andor implementing voltage reductions Other measures could include calling on generation available under emergency conditions andor reducing operating reserves

Area Per-Unit Variation in Load HQ 1088 1088 1044 1000 0958 0916 0909 MT 1138 1092 1046 1000 0954 0908 0862 NE 1093 1038 0997 0963 0940 0850 0800 NY 1043 1031 1016 0998 0975 0944 0905 ON 1058 1043 1023 1000 0972 0944 0928

Prob 00062 00606 02417 03830 02417 00606 00062

Area Per-Unit Variation in Load HQ 1064 1064 1032 1000 0975 0954 0933 MT 1138 1092 1046 1000 0954 0908 0862 NE 1260 1130 0974 0974 0897 0886 0851 NY 1120 1086 1043 0992 0935 0877 0822 ON 1152 1108 1052 0999 0951 0903 0857

Prob 00062 00606 02417 03830 02417 00606 00062

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 16 Final Report

The need for an area to begin these operating procedures is modeled in MARS by evaluating the daily probabilistic expectation at specified margin states The user specifies these margin states for each area in terms of the benefits realized from each emergency measure which can be expressed in MW as a per unit of the original or modified load and as a per unit of the available capacity for the hour

Table 4

NPCC Operating Procedures to Mitigate Resource Shortages Peak Month 2019 Load Relief Assumptions ndash MW

Actions HQ

(Jan) MT

(Jan) NE

(Aug) NY

(Aug) ON

(Jul) 1 Curtail Load Appeals RT-DRSCREDRP SCR Load Man Volt Red

1460 - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- -

85716

020 of load

-

1 of load

- -

2 No 30-min Reserves 500 233 625 655 473

3 Voltage Reduction Interruptible Loads

250 -

-

272

412 -

111 of load

122

-

533

4 No 10-min Reserves General Public Appeals

750 -

505 -

- -

-

81

945 -

5 5 Voltage Reduction No 10-min Reserves AppealsCurtailments

- - -

- - -

-

980 -

-

1310 -

23 of load

- -

Resource Modeling Generator Unit Availability Details regarding each NPCC Arearsquos assumptions for generator unit availability are described in the respective Arearsquos most recent NPCC Comprehensive Review of Resource Adequacy 17 New England This probabilistic assessment reflects New England generating unit availability assumptions based upon historical performance over the prior five-year period Unit availability modeled reflects the projected scheduled maintenance and forced outages Individual generating unit maintenance assumptions are based upon the approved maintenance schedules Individual generating unit forced 16 Derated value shown accounts for assumed availability 17 See httpswwwnpccorgLibraryResource20AdequacyFormsPublic20Listaspx

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 11 Final Report

Energy-Storage and DSM Energy-storage units and demand-side management impacts are both modeled as deterministic load modifiers For each such unit the user specifies a net hourly load modification for a typical week which is subtracted from the hourly loads for the units area

Transmission System The transmission system between interconnected areas is modeled through transfer limits on the interfaces between pairs of areas The transfer limits are specified for each direction of the interface and can be changed on a monthly basis Random forced outages on the interfaces are modeled in the same manner as the outages on thermal units through the use of state transition rates

Contracts Contracts are used to model firm scheduled interchanges of capacity between areas in the system In addition the program schedules any excess capacity in an area in a given hour to provide emergency assistance to a deficient area Each contract can be identified as either firm or curtailable Firm contracts will be scheduled regardless of whether or not the sending area has sufficient resources on an isolated basis but they will be curtailed because of interface transfer limits Curtailable contracts will be only to the extent that the exporting Area has the necessary resources on its own or can obtain them as emergency assistance from other areas Firm contracts and emergency assistance were modeled in this assessment

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 12 Final Report

Demand Modeling The loads for each area were modeled on an hourly chronological basis The MARS program modified the input hourly loads through time to meet each Areas specified annual or monthly peaks and energies

Load Shape For the past several years the Working Group has been using different load shapes for the different seasonal assessments The Working Group considered the 2002 load shape to be representative of a reasonable expected coincidence of area load for the summer assessments Likewise the 2003 ndash 2004 load shape has been used for the winter assessments The selection of these load shapes was based on a review of the weather characteristics and corresponding loads of the years from 2002 through 2008 a 200203 load shape representative of a winter weather pattern with a typical expectation of cold days

and a 200304 load shape representative of a winter weather pattern that includes a consecutive period of cold

days Review of the results for both load shape assumptions indicated only slight differences in the results The Working Group agreed that the weather patterns associated with the 200304 load shape are representative of weather conditions that stress the system appropriate for use in future winter assessments Upon review of subsequent winter weather experience the Working Group agreed that the 200304 load shape assumption be again used for this analysis For a study such as this that focuses on the entire year rather than a single season the Working Group agreed to develop a composite load shape from the historical hourly loads for 2002 2003 and 2004 January through March of the composite shape was based on the data for January through March of 2004 The months of April through September were based on those months for 2002 and October through December was based on the 2003 data Before the composite load model was developed by combining the various pieces the hourly loads for 2003 and 2004 were adjusted by the ratios of their annual energy to the annual energy for 2002 This adjustment removed the load growth that had occurred from 2002 from the 2003 and 2004 loads so as to create a more consistent load shape throughout the year The resulting load shape was then adjusted through the study period to match the monthly or annual peak and energy forecasts The impacts of Demand-Side Management programs were included in each Areas load forecast Demand Response New England Passive and active demand resources participate in the New England Forward Capacity Market (FCM) and are represented as supply-side resources in this study The Qualified Capacity of passive demand resources under the FCM are used for the years 2017 to 2019 and a forecast amount is used for the future years For the active demand resources the study assumes the actual amount procured under the FCM

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 13 Final Report

New York The Installed Capacity (ICAP) Special Case Resource program allows demand resources that meet certification requirements to offer Unforced Capacity (ldquoUCAPrsquo) to Load Serving Entities The load reduction capability of Special Case Resources (ldquoSCRsrdquo) may be sold in the ICAP Market just like any other ICAP Resource however SCRs participate through Responsible Interface Parties (RIPs) which serve as the interface between the New York ISO and the resources RIPs also act as aggregators of SCRs SCRs that have sold ICAP are obligated to reduce their system load when called upon by the New York ISO with two or more hours notice provided the NYISO notifies the Responsible Interface Party a day ahead of the possibility of such a call In addition enrolled SCRs are subject to testing each Capability Period to verify their capability to achieve the amount of enrolled load reduction Failure of an SCR to reduce load during an event or test results in a reduction in the amount of UCAP that can be sold in future periods and could result in penalties assessed to the applicable RIP in accordance with the ICAPSCR program rules and procedures Curtailments are called by the NYISO when reserve shortages are anticipated or during other emergency operating conditions Resources may register for either the Emergency Demand Response Program (EDRP) or ICAPSCR but not both In addition to capacity payments RIPs are eligible for an energy payment during an event using the same calculation methodology as EDRP resources The EDRP provides demand resources an opportunity to earn the greater of $500MWh or the prevailing locational-based marginal price for energy consumption curtailments provided when the NYISO calls on the resource Resources must be enrolled through Curtailment Service Providers which serve as the interface between the New York ISO and resources in order to participate in EDRP There are no obligations for enrolled EDRP resources to curtail their load during an EDRP event SCRs and EDRPs are modeled as an operating procedure step activated to minimize the probability of customer load disconnection The MARS Program models the New York ISO operations practice of only activating operating procedures in zones from which are capable of being delivered Ontario Ontariorsquos Demand Response is comprised of the following programs DR auction DR pilot peaksaver dispatchable loads Capacity Based Demand Response (CBDR) time‐of‐use (TOU) tariffs and the Industrial Conservation Initiative (ICI) Dispatchable loads and CBDR resources can be dispatched in the same way that generators are whereas TOU ICI conservation impacts and embedded generation output are factored into the demand forecast as load modifiers Queacutebec Demand Response (DR) programs in the Queacutebec Area specifically designed for peak-load reduction during winter operating periods are mainly interruptible load programs

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 14 Final Report

Maritimes Demand Response in the Maritimes Area is currently comprised of contracted interruptible loads New York Special Case Resources and Emergency Demand Response Programs Special Case Resources (SCRs) are loads capable of being interrupted and distributed generators rated at 100 kW or higher that are not directly telemetered SCRs offer load curtailment as ICAP resources and provide energyload curtailment when activated in accordance with the New York ISO Emergency Operating Manual SCRs are required to respond to a deployment request for a minimum of four hours however there is no limit to the number of calls or the time of day in which the Special Case Resources may be deployed SCRs receive a capacity payment for load curtailment capability sold in the ICAP market and an energy payment for energy performance during a demand response event The Emergency Demand Response Program (EDRP) is a voluntary reliability program that allows registered interruptible loads and standby generators when activated in accordance with the NYISO Emergency Operating Manual EDRP resources are only paid for their energy performance during a demand response event There is no limit to the number of calls or the time of day in which EDRP resources may be deployed Queacutebec In Queacutebec Demand Response (DR) programs are specifically designed for peak-load reduction during winter operating periods DR consists of interruptible demand programs mainly for large industrial customers DR programs are usually used in situations where either the load is expected to reach high levels or when resources are expected to be insufficient to meet peak load demand Interruptible load program specifications differ among programs and participating customers They usually allow for one or two calls for reduction per day and between 40 to 100 hours load interruption per winter period Interruptible load programs are planned with participating industrial customers with whom contracts are signed Before the peak period generally during the fall season all customers are regularly contacted in order to reaffirm their commitment to provide capacity when called during peak periods

Maritimes Interruptible loads are forecast on a weekly basis and are available for use when corrective action is required within the Area Load Forecast Uncertainty Load forecast uncertainty was also modeled The effects on reliability of uncertainties in the load forecast due to weather and economic conditions were captured through the load forecast uncertainty model in MARS The program computes the reliability indices at each of the specified load levels (for this study seven load levels were modeled) and calculates weighted-average values based on input probabilities of occurrence The per unit variations in Area and sub-Area load are provided by each NPCC Area and can vary on a monthly and annual basis For example Table 3(a) shows the values assumed for January 2019 corresponding to the assumed occurrence of the NPCC system peak load (assuming the composite load

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 15 Final Report

shape) Table 3(a) also shows the probability of occurrence assumed for each of the seven load levels modeled Similarly Table 3(b) shows the corresponding values for July 2019

In computing the reliability indices all of the areas were evaluated simultaneously at the corresponding load level the assumption being that the factors giving rise to the uncertainty affect all of the areas at the same time The amount of the effect can vary according to the variations in the load levels

For this study the reliability indices were calculated for the expected load conditions derived from computing the reliability at each of the seven load levels modeled and computing a weighted-average expected value based on the specified probabilities of occurrence

Table 3(a) Per Unit Variation in Load Assumed (Month of January 2019)

Table 3(b) Per Unit Variation in Load Assumed (Month of August 2019)

Behind-the-meter generation was modeled as netted from load

Controllable Capacity Demand Response Modeling Each area takes defined steps as their reserve levels approach critical levels Table 4 shows these steps consisting of those load control and generation supplements that can be implemented before firm load has to be disconnected Load control measures could include disconnecting or reducing interruptible loads making public appeals to reduce demand andor implementing voltage reductions Other measures could include calling on generation available under emergency conditions andor reducing operating reserves

Area Per-Unit Variation in Load HQ 1088 1088 1044 1000 0958 0916 0909 MT 1138 1092 1046 1000 0954 0908 0862 NE 1093 1038 0997 0963 0940 0850 0800 NY 1043 1031 1016 0998 0975 0944 0905 ON 1058 1043 1023 1000 0972 0944 0928

Prob 00062 00606 02417 03830 02417 00606 00062

Area Per-Unit Variation in Load HQ 1064 1064 1032 1000 0975 0954 0933 MT 1138 1092 1046 1000 0954 0908 0862 NE 1260 1130 0974 0974 0897 0886 0851 NY 1120 1086 1043 0992 0935 0877 0822 ON 1152 1108 1052 0999 0951 0903 0857

Prob 00062 00606 02417 03830 02417 00606 00062

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 16 Final Report

The need for an area to begin these operating procedures is modeled in MARS by evaluating the daily probabilistic expectation at specified margin states The user specifies these margin states for each area in terms of the benefits realized from each emergency measure which can be expressed in MW as a per unit of the original or modified load and as a per unit of the available capacity for the hour

Table 4

NPCC Operating Procedures to Mitigate Resource Shortages Peak Month 2019 Load Relief Assumptions ndash MW

Actions HQ

(Jan) MT

(Jan) NE

(Aug) NY

(Aug) ON

(Jul) 1 Curtail Load Appeals RT-DRSCREDRP SCR Load Man Volt Red

1460 - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- -

85716

020 of load

-

1 of load

- -

2 No 30-min Reserves 500 233 625 655 473

3 Voltage Reduction Interruptible Loads

250 -

-

272

412 -

111 of load

122

-

533

4 No 10-min Reserves General Public Appeals

750 -

505 -

- -

-

81

945 -

5 5 Voltage Reduction No 10-min Reserves AppealsCurtailments

- - -

- - -

-

980 -

-

1310 -

23 of load

- -

Resource Modeling Generator Unit Availability Details regarding each NPCC Arearsquos assumptions for generator unit availability are described in the respective Arearsquos most recent NPCC Comprehensive Review of Resource Adequacy 17 New England This probabilistic assessment reflects New England generating unit availability assumptions based upon historical performance over the prior five-year period Unit availability modeled reflects the projected scheduled maintenance and forced outages Individual generating unit maintenance assumptions are based upon the approved maintenance schedules Individual generating unit forced 16 Derated value shown accounts for assumed availability 17 See httpswwwnpccorgLibraryResource20AdequacyFormsPublic20Listaspx

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 12 Final Report

Demand Modeling The loads for each area were modeled on an hourly chronological basis The MARS program modified the input hourly loads through time to meet each Areas specified annual or monthly peaks and energies

Load Shape For the past several years the Working Group has been using different load shapes for the different seasonal assessments The Working Group considered the 2002 load shape to be representative of a reasonable expected coincidence of area load for the summer assessments Likewise the 2003 ndash 2004 load shape has been used for the winter assessments The selection of these load shapes was based on a review of the weather characteristics and corresponding loads of the years from 2002 through 2008 a 200203 load shape representative of a winter weather pattern with a typical expectation of cold days

and a 200304 load shape representative of a winter weather pattern that includes a consecutive period of cold

days Review of the results for both load shape assumptions indicated only slight differences in the results The Working Group agreed that the weather patterns associated with the 200304 load shape are representative of weather conditions that stress the system appropriate for use in future winter assessments Upon review of subsequent winter weather experience the Working Group agreed that the 200304 load shape assumption be again used for this analysis For a study such as this that focuses on the entire year rather than a single season the Working Group agreed to develop a composite load shape from the historical hourly loads for 2002 2003 and 2004 January through March of the composite shape was based on the data for January through March of 2004 The months of April through September were based on those months for 2002 and October through December was based on the 2003 data Before the composite load model was developed by combining the various pieces the hourly loads for 2003 and 2004 were adjusted by the ratios of their annual energy to the annual energy for 2002 This adjustment removed the load growth that had occurred from 2002 from the 2003 and 2004 loads so as to create a more consistent load shape throughout the year The resulting load shape was then adjusted through the study period to match the monthly or annual peak and energy forecasts The impacts of Demand-Side Management programs were included in each Areas load forecast Demand Response New England Passive and active demand resources participate in the New England Forward Capacity Market (FCM) and are represented as supply-side resources in this study The Qualified Capacity of passive demand resources under the FCM are used for the years 2017 to 2019 and a forecast amount is used for the future years For the active demand resources the study assumes the actual amount procured under the FCM

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 13 Final Report

New York The Installed Capacity (ICAP) Special Case Resource program allows demand resources that meet certification requirements to offer Unforced Capacity (ldquoUCAPrsquo) to Load Serving Entities The load reduction capability of Special Case Resources (ldquoSCRsrdquo) may be sold in the ICAP Market just like any other ICAP Resource however SCRs participate through Responsible Interface Parties (RIPs) which serve as the interface between the New York ISO and the resources RIPs also act as aggregators of SCRs SCRs that have sold ICAP are obligated to reduce their system load when called upon by the New York ISO with two or more hours notice provided the NYISO notifies the Responsible Interface Party a day ahead of the possibility of such a call In addition enrolled SCRs are subject to testing each Capability Period to verify their capability to achieve the amount of enrolled load reduction Failure of an SCR to reduce load during an event or test results in a reduction in the amount of UCAP that can be sold in future periods and could result in penalties assessed to the applicable RIP in accordance with the ICAPSCR program rules and procedures Curtailments are called by the NYISO when reserve shortages are anticipated or during other emergency operating conditions Resources may register for either the Emergency Demand Response Program (EDRP) or ICAPSCR but not both In addition to capacity payments RIPs are eligible for an energy payment during an event using the same calculation methodology as EDRP resources The EDRP provides demand resources an opportunity to earn the greater of $500MWh or the prevailing locational-based marginal price for energy consumption curtailments provided when the NYISO calls on the resource Resources must be enrolled through Curtailment Service Providers which serve as the interface between the New York ISO and resources in order to participate in EDRP There are no obligations for enrolled EDRP resources to curtail their load during an EDRP event SCRs and EDRPs are modeled as an operating procedure step activated to minimize the probability of customer load disconnection The MARS Program models the New York ISO operations practice of only activating operating procedures in zones from which are capable of being delivered Ontario Ontariorsquos Demand Response is comprised of the following programs DR auction DR pilot peaksaver dispatchable loads Capacity Based Demand Response (CBDR) time‐of‐use (TOU) tariffs and the Industrial Conservation Initiative (ICI) Dispatchable loads and CBDR resources can be dispatched in the same way that generators are whereas TOU ICI conservation impacts and embedded generation output are factored into the demand forecast as load modifiers Queacutebec Demand Response (DR) programs in the Queacutebec Area specifically designed for peak-load reduction during winter operating periods are mainly interruptible load programs

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 14 Final Report

Maritimes Demand Response in the Maritimes Area is currently comprised of contracted interruptible loads New York Special Case Resources and Emergency Demand Response Programs Special Case Resources (SCRs) are loads capable of being interrupted and distributed generators rated at 100 kW or higher that are not directly telemetered SCRs offer load curtailment as ICAP resources and provide energyload curtailment when activated in accordance with the New York ISO Emergency Operating Manual SCRs are required to respond to a deployment request for a minimum of four hours however there is no limit to the number of calls or the time of day in which the Special Case Resources may be deployed SCRs receive a capacity payment for load curtailment capability sold in the ICAP market and an energy payment for energy performance during a demand response event The Emergency Demand Response Program (EDRP) is a voluntary reliability program that allows registered interruptible loads and standby generators when activated in accordance with the NYISO Emergency Operating Manual EDRP resources are only paid for their energy performance during a demand response event There is no limit to the number of calls or the time of day in which EDRP resources may be deployed Queacutebec In Queacutebec Demand Response (DR) programs are specifically designed for peak-load reduction during winter operating periods DR consists of interruptible demand programs mainly for large industrial customers DR programs are usually used in situations where either the load is expected to reach high levels or when resources are expected to be insufficient to meet peak load demand Interruptible load program specifications differ among programs and participating customers They usually allow for one or two calls for reduction per day and between 40 to 100 hours load interruption per winter period Interruptible load programs are planned with participating industrial customers with whom contracts are signed Before the peak period generally during the fall season all customers are regularly contacted in order to reaffirm their commitment to provide capacity when called during peak periods

Maritimes Interruptible loads are forecast on a weekly basis and are available for use when corrective action is required within the Area Load Forecast Uncertainty Load forecast uncertainty was also modeled The effects on reliability of uncertainties in the load forecast due to weather and economic conditions were captured through the load forecast uncertainty model in MARS The program computes the reliability indices at each of the specified load levels (for this study seven load levels were modeled) and calculates weighted-average values based on input probabilities of occurrence The per unit variations in Area and sub-Area load are provided by each NPCC Area and can vary on a monthly and annual basis For example Table 3(a) shows the values assumed for January 2019 corresponding to the assumed occurrence of the NPCC system peak load (assuming the composite load

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 15 Final Report

shape) Table 3(a) also shows the probability of occurrence assumed for each of the seven load levels modeled Similarly Table 3(b) shows the corresponding values for July 2019

In computing the reliability indices all of the areas were evaluated simultaneously at the corresponding load level the assumption being that the factors giving rise to the uncertainty affect all of the areas at the same time The amount of the effect can vary according to the variations in the load levels

For this study the reliability indices were calculated for the expected load conditions derived from computing the reliability at each of the seven load levels modeled and computing a weighted-average expected value based on the specified probabilities of occurrence

Table 3(a) Per Unit Variation in Load Assumed (Month of January 2019)

Table 3(b) Per Unit Variation in Load Assumed (Month of August 2019)

Behind-the-meter generation was modeled as netted from load

Controllable Capacity Demand Response Modeling Each area takes defined steps as their reserve levels approach critical levels Table 4 shows these steps consisting of those load control and generation supplements that can be implemented before firm load has to be disconnected Load control measures could include disconnecting or reducing interruptible loads making public appeals to reduce demand andor implementing voltage reductions Other measures could include calling on generation available under emergency conditions andor reducing operating reserves

Area Per-Unit Variation in Load HQ 1088 1088 1044 1000 0958 0916 0909 MT 1138 1092 1046 1000 0954 0908 0862 NE 1093 1038 0997 0963 0940 0850 0800 NY 1043 1031 1016 0998 0975 0944 0905 ON 1058 1043 1023 1000 0972 0944 0928

Prob 00062 00606 02417 03830 02417 00606 00062

Area Per-Unit Variation in Load HQ 1064 1064 1032 1000 0975 0954 0933 MT 1138 1092 1046 1000 0954 0908 0862 NE 1260 1130 0974 0974 0897 0886 0851 NY 1120 1086 1043 0992 0935 0877 0822 ON 1152 1108 1052 0999 0951 0903 0857

Prob 00062 00606 02417 03830 02417 00606 00062

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 16 Final Report

The need for an area to begin these operating procedures is modeled in MARS by evaluating the daily probabilistic expectation at specified margin states The user specifies these margin states for each area in terms of the benefits realized from each emergency measure which can be expressed in MW as a per unit of the original or modified load and as a per unit of the available capacity for the hour

Table 4

NPCC Operating Procedures to Mitigate Resource Shortages Peak Month 2019 Load Relief Assumptions ndash MW

Actions HQ

(Jan) MT

(Jan) NE

(Aug) NY

(Aug) ON

(Jul) 1 Curtail Load Appeals RT-DRSCREDRP SCR Load Man Volt Red

1460 - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- -

85716

020 of load

-

1 of load

- -

2 No 30-min Reserves 500 233 625 655 473

3 Voltage Reduction Interruptible Loads

250 -

-

272

412 -

111 of load

122

-

533

4 No 10-min Reserves General Public Appeals

750 -

505 -

- -

-

81

945 -

5 5 Voltage Reduction No 10-min Reserves AppealsCurtailments

- - -

- - -

-

980 -

-

1310 -

23 of load

- -

Resource Modeling Generator Unit Availability Details regarding each NPCC Arearsquos assumptions for generator unit availability are described in the respective Arearsquos most recent NPCC Comprehensive Review of Resource Adequacy 17 New England This probabilistic assessment reflects New England generating unit availability assumptions based upon historical performance over the prior five-year period Unit availability modeled reflects the projected scheduled maintenance and forced outages Individual generating unit maintenance assumptions are based upon the approved maintenance schedules Individual generating unit forced 16 Derated value shown accounts for assumed availability 17 See httpswwwnpccorgLibraryResource20AdequacyFormsPublic20Listaspx

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 13 Final Report

New York The Installed Capacity (ICAP) Special Case Resource program allows demand resources that meet certification requirements to offer Unforced Capacity (ldquoUCAPrsquo) to Load Serving Entities The load reduction capability of Special Case Resources (ldquoSCRsrdquo) may be sold in the ICAP Market just like any other ICAP Resource however SCRs participate through Responsible Interface Parties (RIPs) which serve as the interface between the New York ISO and the resources RIPs also act as aggregators of SCRs SCRs that have sold ICAP are obligated to reduce their system load when called upon by the New York ISO with two or more hours notice provided the NYISO notifies the Responsible Interface Party a day ahead of the possibility of such a call In addition enrolled SCRs are subject to testing each Capability Period to verify their capability to achieve the amount of enrolled load reduction Failure of an SCR to reduce load during an event or test results in a reduction in the amount of UCAP that can be sold in future periods and could result in penalties assessed to the applicable RIP in accordance with the ICAPSCR program rules and procedures Curtailments are called by the NYISO when reserve shortages are anticipated or during other emergency operating conditions Resources may register for either the Emergency Demand Response Program (EDRP) or ICAPSCR but not both In addition to capacity payments RIPs are eligible for an energy payment during an event using the same calculation methodology as EDRP resources The EDRP provides demand resources an opportunity to earn the greater of $500MWh or the prevailing locational-based marginal price for energy consumption curtailments provided when the NYISO calls on the resource Resources must be enrolled through Curtailment Service Providers which serve as the interface between the New York ISO and resources in order to participate in EDRP There are no obligations for enrolled EDRP resources to curtail their load during an EDRP event SCRs and EDRPs are modeled as an operating procedure step activated to minimize the probability of customer load disconnection The MARS Program models the New York ISO operations practice of only activating operating procedures in zones from which are capable of being delivered Ontario Ontariorsquos Demand Response is comprised of the following programs DR auction DR pilot peaksaver dispatchable loads Capacity Based Demand Response (CBDR) time‐of‐use (TOU) tariffs and the Industrial Conservation Initiative (ICI) Dispatchable loads and CBDR resources can be dispatched in the same way that generators are whereas TOU ICI conservation impacts and embedded generation output are factored into the demand forecast as load modifiers Queacutebec Demand Response (DR) programs in the Queacutebec Area specifically designed for peak-load reduction during winter operating periods are mainly interruptible load programs

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 14 Final Report

Maritimes Demand Response in the Maritimes Area is currently comprised of contracted interruptible loads New York Special Case Resources and Emergency Demand Response Programs Special Case Resources (SCRs) are loads capable of being interrupted and distributed generators rated at 100 kW or higher that are not directly telemetered SCRs offer load curtailment as ICAP resources and provide energyload curtailment when activated in accordance with the New York ISO Emergency Operating Manual SCRs are required to respond to a deployment request for a minimum of four hours however there is no limit to the number of calls or the time of day in which the Special Case Resources may be deployed SCRs receive a capacity payment for load curtailment capability sold in the ICAP market and an energy payment for energy performance during a demand response event The Emergency Demand Response Program (EDRP) is a voluntary reliability program that allows registered interruptible loads and standby generators when activated in accordance with the NYISO Emergency Operating Manual EDRP resources are only paid for their energy performance during a demand response event There is no limit to the number of calls or the time of day in which EDRP resources may be deployed Queacutebec In Queacutebec Demand Response (DR) programs are specifically designed for peak-load reduction during winter operating periods DR consists of interruptible demand programs mainly for large industrial customers DR programs are usually used in situations where either the load is expected to reach high levels or when resources are expected to be insufficient to meet peak load demand Interruptible load program specifications differ among programs and participating customers They usually allow for one or two calls for reduction per day and between 40 to 100 hours load interruption per winter period Interruptible load programs are planned with participating industrial customers with whom contracts are signed Before the peak period generally during the fall season all customers are regularly contacted in order to reaffirm their commitment to provide capacity when called during peak periods

Maritimes Interruptible loads are forecast on a weekly basis and are available for use when corrective action is required within the Area Load Forecast Uncertainty Load forecast uncertainty was also modeled The effects on reliability of uncertainties in the load forecast due to weather and economic conditions were captured through the load forecast uncertainty model in MARS The program computes the reliability indices at each of the specified load levels (for this study seven load levels were modeled) and calculates weighted-average values based on input probabilities of occurrence The per unit variations in Area and sub-Area load are provided by each NPCC Area and can vary on a monthly and annual basis For example Table 3(a) shows the values assumed for January 2019 corresponding to the assumed occurrence of the NPCC system peak load (assuming the composite load

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 15 Final Report

shape) Table 3(a) also shows the probability of occurrence assumed for each of the seven load levels modeled Similarly Table 3(b) shows the corresponding values for July 2019

In computing the reliability indices all of the areas were evaluated simultaneously at the corresponding load level the assumption being that the factors giving rise to the uncertainty affect all of the areas at the same time The amount of the effect can vary according to the variations in the load levels

For this study the reliability indices were calculated for the expected load conditions derived from computing the reliability at each of the seven load levels modeled and computing a weighted-average expected value based on the specified probabilities of occurrence

Table 3(a) Per Unit Variation in Load Assumed (Month of January 2019)

Table 3(b) Per Unit Variation in Load Assumed (Month of August 2019)

Behind-the-meter generation was modeled as netted from load

Controllable Capacity Demand Response Modeling Each area takes defined steps as their reserve levels approach critical levels Table 4 shows these steps consisting of those load control and generation supplements that can be implemented before firm load has to be disconnected Load control measures could include disconnecting or reducing interruptible loads making public appeals to reduce demand andor implementing voltage reductions Other measures could include calling on generation available under emergency conditions andor reducing operating reserves

Area Per-Unit Variation in Load HQ 1088 1088 1044 1000 0958 0916 0909 MT 1138 1092 1046 1000 0954 0908 0862 NE 1093 1038 0997 0963 0940 0850 0800 NY 1043 1031 1016 0998 0975 0944 0905 ON 1058 1043 1023 1000 0972 0944 0928

Prob 00062 00606 02417 03830 02417 00606 00062

Area Per-Unit Variation in Load HQ 1064 1064 1032 1000 0975 0954 0933 MT 1138 1092 1046 1000 0954 0908 0862 NE 1260 1130 0974 0974 0897 0886 0851 NY 1120 1086 1043 0992 0935 0877 0822 ON 1152 1108 1052 0999 0951 0903 0857

Prob 00062 00606 02417 03830 02417 00606 00062

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 16 Final Report

The need for an area to begin these operating procedures is modeled in MARS by evaluating the daily probabilistic expectation at specified margin states The user specifies these margin states for each area in terms of the benefits realized from each emergency measure which can be expressed in MW as a per unit of the original or modified load and as a per unit of the available capacity for the hour

Table 4

NPCC Operating Procedures to Mitigate Resource Shortages Peak Month 2019 Load Relief Assumptions ndash MW

Actions HQ

(Jan) MT

(Jan) NE

(Aug) NY

(Aug) ON

(Jul) 1 Curtail Load Appeals RT-DRSCREDRP SCR Load Man Volt Red

1460 - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- -

85716

020 of load

-

1 of load

- -

2 No 30-min Reserves 500 233 625 655 473

3 Voltage Reduction Interruptible Loads

250 -

-

272

412 -

111 of load

122

-

533

4 No 10-min Reserves General Public Appeals

750 -

505 -

- -

-

81

945 -

5 5 Voltage Reduction No 10-min Reserves AppealsCurtailments

- - -

- - -

-

980 -

-

1310 -

23 of load

- -

Resource Modeling Generator Unit Availability Details regarding each NPCC Arearsquos assumptions for generator unit availability are described in the respective Arearsquos most recent NPCC Comprehensive Review of Resource Adequacy 17 New England This probabilistic assessment reflects New England generating unit availability assumptions based upon historical performance over the prior five-year period Unit availability modeled reflects the projected scheduled maintenance and forced outages Individual generating unit maintenance assumptions are based upon the approved maintenance schedules Individual generating unit forced 16 Derated value shown accounts for assumed availability 17 See httpswwwnpccorgLibraryResource20AdequacyFormsPublic20Listaspx

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 14 Final Report

Maritimes Demand Response in the Maritimes Area is currently comprised of contracted interruptible loads New York Special Case Resources and Emergency Demand Response Programs Special Case Resources (SCRs) are loads capable of being interrupted and distributed generators rated at 100 kW or higher that are not directly telemetered SCRs offer load curtailment as ICAP resources and provide energyload curtailment when activated in accordance with the New York ISO Emergency Operating Manual SCRs are required to respond to a deployment request for a minimum of four hours however there is no limit to the number of calls or the time of day in which the Special Case Resources may be deployed SCRs receive a capacity payment for load curtailment capability sold in the ICAP market and an energy payment for energy performance during a demand response event The Emergency Demand Response Program (EDRP) is a voluntary reliability program that allows registered interruptible loads and standby generators when activated in accordance with the NYISO Emergency Operating Manual EDRP resources are only paid for their energy performance during a demand response event There is no limit to the number of calls or the time of day in which EDRP resources may be deployed Queacutebec In Queacutebec Demand Response (DR) programs are specifically designed for peak-load reduction during winter operating periods DR consists of interruptible demand programs mainly for large industrial customers DR programs are usually used in situations where either the load is expected to reach high levels or when resources are expected to be insufficient to meet peak load demand Interruptible load program specifications differ among programs and participating customers They usually allow for one or two calls for reduction per day and between 40 to 100 hours load interruption per winter period Interruptible load programs are planned with participating industrial customers with whom contracts are signed Before the peak period generally during the fall season all customers are regularly contacted in order to reaffirm their commitment to provide capacity when called during peak periods

Maritimes Interruptible loads are forecast on a weekly basis and are available for use when corrective action is required within the Area Load Forecast Uncertainty Load forecast uncertainty was also modeled The effects on reliability of uncertainties in the load forecast due to weather and economic conditions were captured through the load forecast uncertainty model in MARS The program computes the reliability indices at each of the specified load levels (for this study seven load levels were modeled) and calculates weighted-average values based on input probabilities of occurrence The per unit variations in Area and sub-Area load are provided by each NPCC Area and can vary on a monthly and annual basis For example Table 3(a) shows the values assumed for January 2019 corresponding to the assumed occurrence of the NPCC system peak load (assuming the composite load

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 15 Final Report

shape) Table 3(a) also shows the probability of occurrence assumed for each of the seven load levels modeled Similarly Table 3(b) shows the corresponding values for July 2019

In computing the reliability indices all of the areas were evaluated simultaneously at the corresponding load level the assumption being that the factors giving rise to the uncertainty affect all of the areas at the same time The amount of the effect can vary according to the variations in the load levels

For this study the reliability indices were calculated for the expected load conditions derived from computing the reliability at each of the seven load levels modeled and computing a weighted-average expected value based on the specified probabilities of occurrence

Table 3(a) Per Unit Variation in Load Assumed (Month of January 2019)

Table 3(b) Per Unit Variation in Load Assumed (Month of August 2019)

Behind-the-meter generation was modeled as netted from load

Controllable Capacity Demand Response Modeling Each area takes defined steps as their reserve levels approach critical levels Table 4 shows these steps consisting of those load control and generation supplements that can be implemented before firm load has to be disconnected Load control measures could include disconnecting or reducing interruptible loads making public appeals to reduce demand andor implementing voltage reductions Other measures could include calling on generation available under emergency conditions andor reducing operating reserves

Area Per-Unit Variation in Load HQ 1088 1088 1044 1000 0958 0916 0909 MT 1138 1092 1046 1000 0954 0908 0862 NE 1093 1038 0997 0963 0940 0850 0800 NY 1043 1031 1016 0998 0975 0944 0905 ON 1058 1043 1023 1000 0972 0944 0928

Prob 00062 00606 02417 03830 02417 00606 00062

Area Per-Unit Variation in Load HQ 1064 1064 1032 1000 0975 0954 0933 MT 1138 1092 1046 1000 0954 0908 0862 NE 1260 1130 0974 0974 0897 0886 0851 NY 1120 1086 1043 0992 0935 0877 0822 ON 1152 1108 1052 0999 0951 0903 0857

Prob 00062 00606 02417 03830 02417 00606 00062

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 16 Final Report

The need for an area to begin these operating procedures is modeled in MARS by evaluating the daily probabilistic expectation at specified margin states The user specifies these margin states for each area in terms of the benefits realized from each emergency measure which can be expressed in MW as a per unit of the original or modified load and as a per unit of the available capacity for the hour

Table 4

NPCC Operating Procedures to Mitigate Resource Shortages Peak Month 2019 Load Relief Assumptions ndash MW

Actions HQ

(Jan) MT

(Jan) NE

(Aug) NY

(Aug) ON

(Jul) 1 Curtail Load Appeals RT-DRSCREDRP SCR Load Man Volt Red

1460 - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- -

85716

020 of load

-

1 of load

- -

2 No 30-min Reserves 500 233 625 655 473

3 Voltage Reduction Interruptible Loads

250 -

-

272

412 -

111 of load

122

-

533

4 No 10-min Reserves General Public Appeals

750 -

505 -

- -

-

81

945 -

5 5 Voltage Reduction No 10-min Reserves AppealsCurtailments

- - -

- - -

-

980 -

-

1310 -

23 of load

- -

Resource Modeling Generator Unit Availability Details regarding each NPCC Arearsquos assumptions for generator unit availability are described in the respective Arearsquos most recent NPCC Comprehensive Review of Resource Adequacy 17 New England This probabilistic assessment reflects New England generating unit availability assumptions based upon historical performance over the prior five-year period Unit availability modeled reflects the projected scheduled maintenance and forced outages Individual generating unit maintenance assumptions are based upon the approved maintenance schedules Individual generating unit forced 16 Derated value shown accounts for assumed availability 17 See httpswwwnpccorgLibraryResource20AdequacyFormsPublic20Listaspx

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 15 Final Report

shape) Table 3(a) also shows the probability of occurrence assumed for each of the seven load levels modeled Similarly Table 3(b) shows the corresponding values for July 2019

In computing the reliability indices all of the areas were evaluated simultaneously at the corresponding load level the assumption being that the factors giving rise to the uncertainty affect all of the areas at the same time The amount of the effect can vary according to the variations in the load levels

For this study the reliability indices were calculated for the expected load conditions derived from computing the reliability at each of the seven load levels modeled and computing a weighted-average expected value based on the specified probabilities of occurrence

Table 3(a) Per Unit Variation in Load Assumed (Month of January 2019)

Table 3(b) Per Unit Variation in Load Assumed (Month of August 2019)

Behind-the-meter generation was modeled as netted from load

Controllable Capacity Demand Response Modeling Each area takes defined steps as their reserve levels approach critical levels Table 4 shows these steps consisting of those load control and generation supplements that can be implemented before firm load has to be disconnected Load control measures could include disconnecting or reducing interruptible loads making public appeals to reduce demand andor implementing voltage reductions Other measures could include calling on generation available under emergency conditions andor reducing operating reserves

Area Per-Unit Variation in Load HQ 1088 1088 1044 1000 0958 0916 0909 MT 1138 1092 1046 1000 0954 0908 0862 NE 1093 1038 0997 0963 0940 0850 0800 NY 1043 1031 1016 0998 0975 0944 0905 ON 1058 1043 1023 1000 0972 0944 0928

Prob 00062 00606 02417 03830 02417 00606 00062

Area Per-Unit Variation in Load HQ 1064 1064 1032 1000 0975 0954 0933 MT 1138 1092 1046 1000 0954 0908 0862 NE 1260 1130 0974 0974 0897 0886 0851 NY 1120 1086 1043 0992 0935 0877 0822 ON 1152 1108 1052 0999 0951 0903 0857

Prob 00062 00606 02417 03830 02417 00606 00062

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 16 Final Report

The need for an area to begin these operating procedures is modeled in MARS by evaluating the daily probabilistic expectation at specified margin states The user specifies these margin states for each area in terms of the benefits realized from each emergency measure which can be expressed in MW as a per unit of the original or modified load and as a per unit of the available capacity for the hour

Table 4

NPCC Operating Procedures to Mitigate Resource Shortages Peak Month 2019 Load Relief Assumptions ndash MW

Actions HQ

(Jan) MT

(Jan) NE

(Aug) NY

(Aug) ON

(Jul) 1 Curtail Load Appeals RT-DRSCREDRP SCR Load Man Volt Red

1460 - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- -

85716

020 of load

-

1 of load

- -

2 No 30-min Reserves 500 233 625 655 473

3 Voltage Reduction Interruptible Loads

250 -

-

272

412 -

111 of load

122

-

533

4 No 10-min Reserves General Public Appeals

750 -

505 -

- -

-

81

945 -

5 5 Voltage Reduction No 10-min Reserves AppealsCurtailments

- - -

- - -

-

980 -

-

1310 -

23 of load

- -

Resource Modeling Generator Unit Availability Details regarding each NPCC Arearsquos assumptions for generator unit availability are described in the respective Arearsquos most recent NPCC Comprehensive Review of Resource Adequacy 17 New England This probabilistic assessment reflects New England generating unit availability assumptions based upon historical performance over the prior five-year period Unit availability modeled reflects the projected scheduled maintenance and forced outages Individual generating unit maintenance assumptions are based upon the approved maintenance schedules Individual generating unit forced 16 Derated value shown accounts for assumed availability 17 See httpswwwnpccorgLibraryResource20AdequacyFormsPublic20Listaspx

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 16 Final Report

The need for an area to begin these operating procedures is modeled in MARS by evaluating the daily probabilistic expectation at specified margin states The user specifies these margin states for each area in terms of the benefits realized from each emergency measure which can be expressed in MW as a per unit of the original or modified load and as a per unit of the available capacity for the hour

Table 4

NPCC Operating Procedures to Mitigate Resource Shortages Peak Month 2019 Load Relief Assumptions ndash MW

Actions HQ

(Jan) MT

(Jan) NE

(Aug) NY

(Aug) ON

(Jul) 1 Curtail Load Appeals RT-DRSCREDRP SCR Load Man Volt Red

1460 - - -

- - - -

- - - -

- -

85716

020 of load

-

1 of load

- -

2 No 30-min Reserves 500 233 625 655 473

3 Voltage Reduction Interruptible Loads

250 -

-

272

412 -

111 of load

122

-

533

4 No 10-min Reserves General Public Appeals

750 -

505 -

- -

-

81

945 -

5 5 Voltage Reduction No 10-min Reserves AppealsCurtailments

- - -

- - -

-

980 -

-

1310 -

23 of load

- -

Resource Modeling Generator Unit Availability Details regarding each NPCC Arearsquos assumptions for generator unit availability are described in the respective Arearsquos most recent NPCC Comprehensive Review of Resource Adequacy 17 New England This probabilistic assessment reflects New England generating unit availability assumptions based upon historical performance over the prior five-year period Unit availability modeled reflects the projected scheduled maintenance and forced outages Individual generating unit maintenance assumptions are based upon the approved maintenance schedules Individual generating unit forced 16 Derated value shown accounts for assumed availability 17 See httpswwwnpccorgLibraryResource20AdequacyFormsPublic20Listaspx

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 17 Final Report

outage assumptions were based on the unitrsquos historical data and North American Reliability Corporation (NERC) average data for the same class of unit New York Detailed availability assumptions used for the New York units can be found in the New York ISO Technical Study Report Locational Minimum Installed Capacity Requirements Study covering the New York Control Area for the 2018 ndash 2019 Capability Year - January 18 2018 18 and the New York Control Area Installed Capacity Requirement for the Period May 2018 to April 2019 New York State Reliability Council December 8 2017 report 19 Ontario For the purposes of this study the Base Case assumptions for Ontario are consistent with the normal weather planned scenario in the IESO 18-Month Outlook An Assessment of the Reliability and Operability of the Ontario Electricity System From July 2018 to December 2019 (June 20 2018) 23 Queacutebec The planned outages for the winter period are reflected in this assessment The number of planned outages is consistent with historical values Maritimes Individual generating unit maintenance assumptions are based on approved maintenance schedules for the study period Hydro

New England New England uses the Seasonal Claimed Capability as established through the Claimed Capability Audit to represent the hydro resources The Seasonal Claimed Capability for intermittent hydro resources is based on their historical median net real power output during Reliability Hours (1400 ndash 1800)

New York Large hydro units are modeled as thermal units with a corresponding multi-state representation that represents an Equivalent Forced Outage rate on Demand (EFORd) For run of river units New York provides 8760 hours of historical unit profiles for each year of the most recent five-year calendar period for each facility based on production data Run of river unit seasonality is captured by using GE-MARS functionality to randomly select an annual shape for each run of river unit in each draw Each shape is equally weighted

Ontario Hydroelectric resources are modelled in the MARS Program as capacity-limited and energy-limited resources Minimum capacity maximum capacity and monthly energy values are determined on an aggregated basis for each zone based on historical data since market opening (2002)

18 See

httpwwwnyisocompublicwebdocsmarkets_operationsservicesplanningDocuments_and_ResourcesResource_AdequacyResource_Adequacy_DocumentsLCR2018_Reportpdf

19 See httpwwwnysrcorgpdfReports201820IRM20Study20Report20Final2012-8-17[2098]pdf

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 18 Final Report

Quebec For hydro resources maximum capacity is set equal to the power that each plant can generate at its maximum rating during two full hours while expected on-peak capacity is set equal to maximum capacity minus scheduled maintenance outages and restrictions Maritimes Hydro in the Maritimes is predominantly run of the river but enough storage is available for full rated capability during daily peak load periods Thermal New England The Seasonal Claimed Capability as established through the Claimed Capability Audit is used to represent the non-intermittent thermal resources The Seasonal Claimed Capability for intermittent thermal resources is based on their historical median net real power output during Reliability Hours New York Installed capacity values for thermal units are based on the minimum of seasonal Dependable Maximum Net Capability (DMNC) test results and the Capacity Resource Interconnection Service (CRIS) value Generator availability is derived from the most recent calendar five-year period forced outage data Units are modeled in the MARS Program using a multi-state representation that represents an equivalent forced outage rate on demand (EFORd) Planned and scheduled maintenance outages are modeled based upon schedules received by the New York ISO and adjusted for historical maintenance A nominal MW value for the summer assessment representing historical maintenance during the summer peak period is also modeled

Ontario The capacity values and planned outage schedules for thermal units are based on monthly maximum continuous ratings and planned outage information contained in market participant submissions The available capacity states and state transition rates for each existing thermal unit are derived based on analysis of a rolling five-year history of actual forced outage data For existing units with insufficient historical data and for new units capacity states and state transition rate data of existing units with similar size and technical characteristics are applied Quebec For thermal units Maximum Capacity is defined as the net output a unit can sustain over a two-consecutive hour period Maritimes Combustion turbine capacity for the Maritimes Area is winter DMNC During summer these values are de-rated accordingly

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 19 Final Report

Solar

New England The majority of solar resource development in New England is the state-sponsored distributed Behind-the-Meter (BTM) Photovoltaic (PV) resources that does not participate in wholesale markets but reduces the system load observed by ISO The BTM PV are modeled as a load modifier on an hourly basis based on the 2002 historical hourly weather profile

New York New York provides 8760 hours of historical solar profiles for each year of the most recent five-year calendar period for each solar plant based on production data Solar seasonality is captured by using GE-MARS functionality to randomly select an annual solar shape for each solar unit in each draw Each solar shape is equally weighted

Summer capacity values for solar units are based on average production during hours 1400 to 1800 for the months of June July and August Winter capacity values for solar units are based on average production during hours 1600 to 2000 for the months of December January and February

Ontario Solar generation is aggregated on a zonal basis and is modelled as load modifiers The contribution of solar resources is modelled as fixed hourly profiles that vary by month and season Queacutebec In the Queacutebec area behind-the-meter generation (solar and wind) is estimated at less than 1 MW and doesnrsquot affect the load monitored from a network perspective Maritimes At this time solar capacity in the Maritimes is behind the meter and netted against load forecasts It does not currently count as capacity Wind

New England New England models the wind resources using the Seasonal Claimed Capability as determined based on their historical median net real power output during Reliability Hours (1400 ndash 1800)

New York New York provides 8760 hours of historical wind profiles for each year of the most recent five-year calendar period for each wind plant based on production data Wind seasonality is captured by using the-MARS functionality to randomly select an annual wind shape for each wind unit in each draw Each wind shape is equally weighted

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 20 Final Report

Summer capacity values for wind units are based on average production during hours 1400 to 1800 for the months of June July and August Winter capacity values for wind units are based on average production during hours 1600 to 2000 for the months of December January and February

Ontario Capacity limitations due to variability of wind generators are captured by providing probability density functions from which stochastic selections are made by the MARS software Wind generation is aggregated on a zonal basis and modelled as an energy limited resource with a cumulative probability density function (CPDF) which represents the likelihood of zonal wind contribution being at or below various capacity levels during peak demand hours The CPDFs vary by month and season

Queacutebec The expected capacity at winter peak is 30 of the Installed (Nameplate) capacity except for a small amount (roughly 3) which is derated for all years of the study For the summer period wind power generation is derated by 100

Maritimes The Maritimes Area provides an hourly historical wind profile for each of its four sub-areas based on actual wind shapes from the fiscal year of 20112012 Each sub-arearsquos actual MW wind output was normalized by the total installed capacity in the sub-area during that fiscal year The data is considered typical having had substantially all of the existing Maritimes Area wind resources by that time and no major outages due to icing or other abnormal weather or operating problems These profiles when multiplied by current sub-area total installed wind capacities yield an annual wind forecast for each sub-area The sum of these four sub-area forecasts is the Maritimes Arearsquos hourly wind forecast Capacity and Load Summary Figures 1 through 6 summarize area capacity and load assumed in this Overview at the time of area peak for the period 2019 to 2023 Area peak load is shown against the initial area generating capacity (includes demand resources modeled as resources) adjusted for purchases retirements and additions New England generating capacity also includes active Demand Response based on the Capacity Supply Obligations obtained through ISO-NErsquos Forward Capacity Market three years in advance Details regarding area capacity and load assumptions can be found in Appendices A-E

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 21 Final Report

Figure 1 ndash Queacutebec Capacity and Load

Figure 2 ndash Maritimes Area Capacity and Load

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 22 Final Report

Figure 3 ndash New England Capacity and Load

Figure 3 ndash New York Capacity and Load

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 23 Final Report

Figure 5 ndash Ontario Capacity and Load

Figure 6 ndash PJM-RTO Capacity and Load

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 24 Final Report

Transmission Transmission additions and retirements assumed in the modeling was consistent with the data provided for the NERC 2018 Long-Term Reliability Assessment Figure 7 stylistically summaries the transmission system that was assumed showing area and assumed transfer limits

Figure 7 - Assumed Transfer Limits

Transfer limits between and within some areas are indicated in Figure 7 with seasonal ratings (S- summer W- winter) The acronyms and notes used are defined as follows Chur - Churchill Falls NOR - Norwalk ndash Stamford NM - Northern Maine MANIT - Manitoba BHE - Bangor Hydro Electric NB - New Brunswick ND - Nicolet-Des Cantons Mtl - Montreacuteal PEI - Prince Edward Island BJ - Bay James C MA - Central MA CT - Connecticut MN - Minnesota W MA - Western MA NS - Nova Scotia MAN - Manicouagan NBM - Millbank NW - Northwest (Ontario) NE - Northeast (Ontario) VT - Vermont RFC - ReliabilityFirst MRO - Midwest Reliability Que - Queacutebec Centre MT - Maritimes Area Organization Centre

The transfer capability is 1000 MW However it was modeled as 700 MW to reflect limitations imposed by internal New England constraints

The transfer capability in this direction reflects limitations imposed by internal New England constraints

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 25 Final Report

The modeling of the Maritimes Area shown in Figure 7 is consistent with its latest NPCC Comprehensive Review of Resource Adequacy 20 Details regarding the development of the transmission representation for New York shown in Figure 7(a) 7(b) and 7(c) are consistent with the New York State Reliability Council New York Control Area Installed Capacity Requirements for the Period May 2018 through April 2019 Technical Study Report December 8 2017 21

Figure 7(a) Assumed Northern New York Transmission Limits for 2019

20 See httpswwwnpccorgLibraryResource20AdequacyFormsPublic20Listaspx 21 See httpwwwnysrcorgpdfReports201820IRM20Study20Report20Final2012-8-17[2098]pdf

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 19 Final Report

Solar

New England The majority of solar resource development in New England is the state-sponsored distributed Behind-the-Meter (BTM) Photovoltaic (PV) resources that does not participate in wholesale markets but reduces the system load observed by ISO The BTM PV are modeled as a load modifier on an hourly basis based on the 2002 historical hourly weather profile

New York New York provides 8760 hours of historical solar profiles for each year of the most recent five-year calendar period for each solar plant based on production data Solar seasonality is captured by using GE-MARS functionality to randomly select an annual solar shape for each solar unit in each draw Each solar shape is equally weighted

Summer capacity values for solar units are based on average production during hours 1400 to 1800 for the months of June July and August Winter capacity values for solar units are based on average production during hours 1600 to 2000 for the months of December January and February

Ontario Solar generation is aggregated on a zonal basis and is modelled as load modifiers The contribution of solar resources is modelled as fixed hourly profiles that vary by month and season Queacutebec In the Queacutebec area behind-the-meter generation (solar and wind) is estimated at less than 1 MW and doesnrsquot affect the load monitored from a network perspective Maritimes At this time solar capacity in the Maritimes is behind the meter and netted against load forecasts It does not currently count as capacity Wind

New England New England models the wind resources using the Seasonal Claimed Capability as determined based on their historical median net real power output during Reliability Hours (1400 ndash 1800)

New York New York provides 8760 hours of historical wind profiles for each year of the most recent five-year calendar period for each wind plant based on production data Wind seasonality is captured by using the-MARS functionality to randomly select an annual wind shape for each wind unit in each draw Each wind shape is equally weighted

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 20 Final Report

Summer capacity values for wind units are based on average production during hours 1400 to 1800 for the months of June July and August Winter capacity values for wind units are based on average production during hours 1600 to 2000 for the months of December January and February

Ontario Capacity limitations due to variability of wind generators are captured by providing probability density functions from which stochastic selections are made by the MARS software Wind generation is aggregated on a zonal basis and modelled as an energy limited resource with a cumulative probability density function (CPDF) which represents the likelihood of zonal wind contribution being at or below various capacity levels during peak demand hours The CPDFs vary by month and season

Queacutebec The expected capacity at winter peak is 30 of the Installed (Nameplate) capacity except for a small amount (roughly 3) which is derated for all years of the study For the summer period wind power generation is derated by 100

Maritimes The Maritimes Area provides an hourly historical wind profile for each of its four sub-areas based on actual wind shapes from the fiscal year of 20112012 Each sub-arearsquos actual MW wind output was normalized by the total installed capacity in the sub-area during that fiscal year The data is considered typical having had substantially all of the existing Maritimes Area wind resources by that time and no major outages due to icing or other abnormal weather or operating problems These profiles when multiplied by current sub-area total installed wind capacities yield an annual wind forecast for each sub-area The sum of these four sub-area forecasts is the Maritimes Arearsquos hourly wind forecast Capacity and Load Summary Figures 1 through 6 summarize area capacity and load assumed in this Overview at the time of area peak for the period 2019 to 2023 Area peak load is shown against the initial area generating capacity (includes demand resources modeled as resources) adjusted for purchases retirements and additions New England generating capacity also includes active Demand Response based on the Capacity Supply Obligations obtained through ISO-NErsquos Forward Capacity Market three years in advance Details regarding area capacity and load assumptions can be found in Appendices A-E

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 21 Final Report

Figure 1 ndash Queacutebec Capacity and Load

Figure 2 ndash Maritimes Area Capacity and Load

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 22 Final Report

Figure 3 ndash New England Capacity and Load

Figure 3 ndash New York Capacity and Load

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 23 Final Report

Figure 5 ndash Ontario Capacity and Load

Figure 6 ndash PJM-RTO Capacity and Load

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 24 Final Report

Transmission Transmission additions and retirements assumed in the modeling was consistent with the data provided for the NERC 2018 Long-Term Reliability Assessment Figure 7 stylistically summaries the transmission system that was assumed showing area and assumed transfer limits

Figure 7 - Assumed Transfer Limits

Transfer limits between and within some areas are indicated in Figure 7 with seasonal ratings (S- summer W- winter) The acronyms and notes used are defined as follows Chur - Churchill Falls NOR - Norwalk ndash Stamford NM - Northern Maine MANIT - Manitoba BHE - Bangor Hydro Electric NB - New Brunswick ND - Nicolet-Des Cantons Mtl - Montreacuteal PEI - Prince Edward Island BJ - Bay James C MA - Central MA CT - Connecticut MN - Minnesota W MA - Western MA NS - Nova Scotia MAN - Manicouagan NBM - Millbank NW - Northwest (Ontario) NE - Northeast (Ontario) VT - Vermont RFC - ReliabilityFirst MRO - Midwest Reliability Que - Queacutebec Centre MT - Maritimes Area Organization Centre

The transfer capability is 1000 MW However it was modeled as 700 MW to reflect limitations imposed by internal New England constraints

The transfer capability in this direction reflects limitations imposed by internal New England constraints

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 25 Final Report

The modeling of the Maritimes Area shown in Figure 7 is consistent with its latest NPCC Comprehensive Review of Resource Adequacy 20 Details regarding the development of the transmission representation for New York shown in Figure 7(a) 7(b) and 7(c) are consistent with the New York State Reliability Council New York Control Area Installed Capacity Requirements for the Period May 2018 through April 2019 Technical Study Report December 8 2017 21

Figure 7(a) Assumed Northern New York Transmission Limits for 2019

20 See httpswwwnpccorgLibraryResource20AdequacyFormsPublic20Listaspx 21 See httpwwwnysrcorgpdfReports201820IRM20Study20Report20Final2012-8-17[2098]pdf

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 20 Final Report

Summer capacity values for wind units are based on average production during hours 1400 to 1800 for the months of June July and August Winter capacity values for wind units are based on average production during hours 1600 to 2000 for the months of December January and February

Ontario Capacity limitations due to variability of wind generators are captured by providing probability density functions from which stochastic selections are made by the MARS software Wind generation is aggregated on a zonal basis and modelled as an energy limited resource with a cumulative probability density function (CPDF) which represents the likelihood of zonal wind contribution being at or below various capacity levels during peak demand hours The CPDFs vary by month and season

Queacutebec The expected capacity at winter peak is 30 of the Installed (Nameplate) capacity except for a small amount (roughly 3) which is derated for all years of the study For the summer period wind power generation is derated by 100

Maritimes The Maritimes Area provides an hourly historical wind profile for each of its four sub-areas based on actual wind shapes from the fiscal year of 20112012 Each sub-arearsquos actual MW wind output was normalized by the total installed capacity in the sub-area during that fiscal year The data is considered typical having had substantially all of the existing Maritimes Area wind resources by that time and no major outages due to icing or other abnormal weather or operating problems These profiles when multiplied by current sub-area total installed wind capacities yield an annual wind forecast for each sub-area The sum of these four sub-area forecasts is the Maritimes Arearsquos hourly wind forecast Capacity and Load Summary Figures 1 through 6 summarize area capacity and load assumed in this Overview at the time of area peak for the period 2019 to 2023 Area peak load is shown against the initial area generating capacity (includes demand resources modeled as resources) adjusted for purchases retirements and additions New England generating capacity also includes active Demand Response based on the Capacity Supply Obligations obtained through ISO-NErsquos Forward Capacity Market three years in advance Details regarding area capacity and load assumptions can be found in Appendices A-E

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 21 Final Report

Figure 1 ndash Queacutebec Capacity and Load

Figure 2 ndash Maritimes Area Capacity and Load

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 22 Final Report

Figure 3 ndash New England Capacity and Load

Figure 3 ndash New York Capacity and Load

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 23 Final Report

Figure 5 ndash Ontario Capacity and Load

Figure 6 ndash PJM-RTO Capacity and Load

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 24 Final Report

Transmission Transmission additions and retirements assumed in the modeling was consistent with the data provided for the NERC 2018 Long-Term Reliability Assessment Figure 7 stylistically summaries the transmission system that was assumed showing area and assumed transfer limits

Figure 7 - Assumed Transfer Limits

Transfer limits between and within some areas are indicated in Figure 7 with seasonal ratings (S- summer W- winter) The acronyms and notes used are defined as follows Chur - Churchill Falls NOR - Norwalk ndash Stamford NM - Northern Maine MANIT - Manitoba BHE - Bangor Hydro Electric NB - New Brunswick ND - Nicolet-Des Cantons Mtl - Montreacuteal PEI - Prince Edward Island BJ - Bay James C MA - Central MA CT - Connecticut MN - Minnesota W MA - Western MA NS - Nova Scotia MAN - Manicouagan NBM - Millbank NW - Northwest (Ontario) NE - Northeast (Ontario) VT - Vermont RFC - ReliabilityFirst MRO - Midwest Reliability Que - Queacutebec Centre MT - Maritimes Area Organization Centre

The transfer capability is 1000 MW However it was modeled as 700 MW to reflect limitations imposed by internal New England constraints

The transfer capability in this direction reflects limitations imposed by internal New England constraints

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 25 Final Report

The modeling of the Maritimes Area shown in Figure 7 is consistent with its latest NPCC Comprehensive Review of Resource Adequacy 20 Details regarding the development of the transmission representation for New York shown in Figure 7(a) 7(b) and 7(c) are consistent with the New York State Reliability Council New York Control Area Installed Capacity Requirements for the Period May 2018 through April 2019 Technical Study Report December 8 2017 21

Figure 7(a) Assumed Northern New York Transmission Limits for 2019

20 See httpswwwnpccorgLibraryResource20AdequacyFormsPublic20Listaspx 21 See httpwwwnysrcorgpdfReports201820IRM20Study20Report20Final2012-8-17[2098]pdf

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 21 Final Report

Figure 1 ndash Queacutebec Capacity and Load

Figure 2 ndash Maritimes Area Capacity and Load

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 22 Final Report

Figure 3 ndash New England Capacity and Load

Figure 3 ndash New York Capacity and Load

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 23 Final Report

Figure 5 ndash Ontario Capacity and Load

Figure 6 ndash PJM-RTO Capacity and Load

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 24 Final Report

Transmission Transmission additions and retirements assumed in the modeling was consistent with the data provided for the NERC 2018 Long-Term Reliability Assessment Figure 7 stylistically summaries the transmission system that was assumed showing area and assumed transfer limits

Figure 7 - Assumed Transfer Limits

Transfer limits between and within some areas are indicated in Figure 7 with seasonal ratings (S- summer W- winter) The acronyms and notes used are defined as follows Chur - Churchill Falls NOR - Norwalk ndash Stamford NM - Northern Maine MANIT - Manitoba BHE - Bangor Hydro Electric NB - New Brunswick ND - Nicolet-Des Cantons Mtl - Montreacuteal PEI - Prince Edward Island BJ - Bay James C MA - Central MA CT - Connecticut MN - Minnesota W MA - Western MA NS - Nova Scotia MAN - Manicouagan NBM - Millbank NW - Northwest (Ontario) NE - Northeast (Ontario) VT - Vermont RFC - ReliabilityFirst MRO - Midwest Reliability Que - Queacutebec Centre MT - Maritimes Area Organization Centre

The transfer capability is 1000 MW However it was modeled as 700 MW to reflect limitations imposed by internal New England constraints

The transfer capability in this direction reflects limitations imposed by internal New England constraints

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 25 Final Report

The modeling of the Maritimes Area shown in Figure 7 is consistent with its latest NPCC Comprehensive Review of Resource Adequacy 20 Details regarding the development of the transmission representation for New York shown in Figure 7(a) 7(b) and 7(c) are consistent with the New York State Reliability Council New York Control Area Installed Capacity Requirements for the Period May 2018 through April 2019 Technical Study Report December 8 2017 21

Figure 7(a) Assumed Northern New York Transmission Limits for 2019

20 See httpswwwnpccorgLibraryResource20AdequacyFormsPublic20Listaspx 21 See httpwwwnysrcorgpdfReports201820IRM20Study20Report20Final2012-8-17[2098]pdf

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 22 Final Report

Figure 3 ndash New England Capacity and Load

Figure 3 ndash New York Capacity and Load

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 23 Final Report

Figure 5 ndash Ontario Capacity and Load

Figure 6 ndash PJM-RTO Capacity and Load

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 24 Final Report

Transmission Transmission additions and retirements assumed in the modeling was consistent with the data provided for the NERC 2018 Long-Term Reliability Assessment Figure 7 stylistically summaries the transmission system that was assumed showing area and assumed transfer limits

Figure 7 - Assumed Transfer Limits

Transfer limits between and within some areas are indicated in Figure 7 with seasonal ratings (S- summer W- winter) The acronyms and notes used are defined as follows Chur - Churchill Falls NOR - Norwalk ndash Stamford NM - Northern Maine MANIT - Manitoba BHE - Bangor Hydro Electric NB - New Brunswick ND - Nicolet-Des Cantons Mtl - Montreacuteal PEI - Prince Edward Island BJ - Bay James C MA - Central MA CT - Connecticut MN - Minnesota W MA - Western MA NS - Nova Scotia MAN - Manicouagan NBM - Millbank NW - Northwest (Ontario) NE - Northeast (Ontario) VT - Vermont RFC - ReliabilityFirst MRO - Midwest Reliability Que - Queacutebec Centre MT - Maritimes Area Organization Centre

The transfer capability is 1000 MW However it was modeled as 700 MW to reflect limitations imposed by internal New England constraints

The transfer capability in this direction reflects limitations imposed by internal New England constraints

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 25 Final Report

The modeling of the Maritimes Area shown in Figure 7 is consistent with its latest NPCC Comprehensive Review of Resource Adequacy 20 Details regarding the development of the transmission representation for New York shown in Figure 7(a) 7(b) and 7(c) are consistent with the New York State Reliability Council New York Control Area Installed Capacity Requirements for the Period May 2018 through April 2019 Technical Study Report December 8 2017 21

Figure 7(a) Assumed Northern New York Transmission Limits for 2019

20 See httpswwwnpccorgLibraryResource20AdequacyFormsPublic20Listaspx 21 See httpwwwnysrcorgpdfReports201820IRM20Study20Report20Final2012-8-17[2098]pdf

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 23 Final Report

Figure 5 ndash Ontario Capacity and Load

Figure 6 ndash PJM-RTO Capacity and Load

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 24 Final Report

Transmission Transmission additions and retirements assumed in the modeling was consistent with the data provided for the NERC 2018 Long-Term Reliability Assessment Figure 7 stylistically summaries the transmission system that was assumed showing area and assumed transfer limits

Figure 7 - Assumed Transfer Limits

Transfer limits between and within some areas are indicated in Figure 7 with seasonal ratings (S- summer W- winter) The acronyms and notes used are defined as follows Chur - Churchill Falls NOR - Norwalk ndash Stamford NM - Northern Maine MANIT - Manitoba BHE - Bangor Hydro Electric NB - New Brunswick ND - Nicolet-Des Cantons Mtl - Montreacuteal PEI - Prince Edward Island BJ - Bay James C MA - Central MA CT - Connecticut MN - Minnesota W MA - Western MA NS - Nova Scotia MAN - Manicouagan NBM - Millbank NW - Northwest (Ontario) NE - Northeast (Ontario) VT - Vermont RFC - ReliabilityFirst MRO - Midwest Reliability Que - Queacutebec Centre MT - Maritimes Area Organization Centre

The transfer capability is 1000 MW However it was modeled as 700 MW to reflect limitations imposed by internal New England constraints

The transfer capability in this direction reflects limitations imposed by internal New England constraints

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 25 Final Report

The modeling of the Maritimes Area shown in Figure 7 is consistent with its latest NPCC Comprehensive Review of Resource Adequacy 20 Details regarding the development of the transmission representation for New York shown in Figure 7(a) 7(b) and 7(c) are consistent with the New York State Reliability Council New York Control Area Installed Capacity Requirements for the Period May 2018 through April 2019 Technical Study Report December 8 2017 21

Figure 7(a) Assumed Northern New York Transmission Limits for 2019

20 See httpswwwnpccorgLibraryResource20AdequacyFormsPublic20Listaspx 21 See httpwwwnysrcorgpdfReports201820IRM20Study20Report20Final2012-8-17[2098]pdf

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 24 Final Report

Transmission Transmission additions and retirements assumed in the modeling was consistent with the data provided for the NERC 2018 Long-Term Reliability Assessment Figure 7 stylistically summaries the transmission system that was assumed showing area and assumed transfer limits

Figure 7 - Assumed Transfer Limits

Transfer limits between and within some areas are indicated in Figure 7 with seasonal ratings (S- summer W- winter) The acronyms and notes used are defined as follows Chur - Churchill Falls NOR - Norwalk ndash Stamford NM - Northern Maine MANIT - Manitoba BHE - Bangor Hydro Electric NB - New Brunswick ND - Nicolet-Des Cantons Mtl - Montreacuteal PEI - Prince Edward Island BJ - Bay James C MA - Central MA CT - Connecticut MN - Minnesota W MA - Western MA NS - Nova Scotia MAN - Manicouagan NBM - Millbank NW - Northwest (Ontario) NE - Northeast (Ontario) VT - Vermont RFC - ReliabilityFirst MRO - Midwest Reliability Que - Queacutebec Centre MT - Maritimes Area Organization Centre

The transfer capability is 1000 MW However it was modeled as 700 MW to reflect limitations imposed by internal New England constraints

The transfer capability in this direction reflects limitations imposed by internal New England constraints

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 25 Final Report

The modeling of the Maritimes Area shown in Figure 7 is consistent with its latest NPCC Comprehensive Review of Resource Adequacy 20 Details regarding the development of the transmission representation for New York shown in Figure 7(a) 7(b) and 7(c) are consistent with the New York State Reliability Council New York Control Area Installed Capacity Requirements for the Period May 2018 through April 2019 Technical Study Report December 8 2017 21

Figure 7(a) Assumed Northern New York Transmission Limits for 2019

20 See httpswwwnpccorgLibraryResource20AdequacyFormsPublic20Listaspx 21 See httpwwwnysrcorgpdfReports201820IRM20Study20Report20Final2012-8-17[2098]pdf

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 25 Final Report

The modeling of the Maritimes Area shown in Figure 7 is consistent with its latest NPCC Comprehensive Review of Resource Adequacy 20 Details regarding the development of the transmission representation for New York shown in Figure 7(a) 7(b) and 7(c) are consistent with the New York State Reliability Council New York Control Area Installed Capacity Requirements for the Period May 2018 through April 2019 Technical Study Report December 8 2017 21

Figure 7(a) Assumed Northern New York Transmission Limits for 2019

20 See httpswwwnpccorgLibraryResource20AdequacyFormsPublic20Listaspx 21 See httpwwwnysrcorgpdfReports201820IRM20Study20Report20Final2012-8-17[2098]pdf

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 26 Final Report

Figure 7(b) Assumed Northern New York Transmission Limits for 2020-2023

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 27 Final Report

Figure 7(c) Assumed Southern New York Transmission Limits

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 28 Final Report

Details regarding the development of the transmission representation for New England shown in Figure 7(d) can be found in the New England Regional System Plan 22 The Regional System Plan is ISO New Englandrsquos (ISO) planning efforts to identify the regionrsquos electricity needs and actions for meeting these needs in order to maintain reliable and economic operation of New Englandrsquos bulk power system over a ten-year horizon The Regional System Plan (RSP) is conducted every two years and the last one was published in 2017 The RSP17 and the regional system planning process which identifies the regionrsquos electricity needs and plans for meeting these needs for 2017 through 2026

Figure 7(d) New England Transmission Limits

22 See httpwwwiso-necomtransrspindexhtml

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 27 Final Report

Figure 7(c) Assumed Southern New York Transmission Limits

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 28 Final Report

Details regarding the development of the transmission representation for New England shown in Figure 7(d) can be found in the New England Regional System Plan 22 The Regional System Plan is ISO New Englandrsquos (ISO) planning efforts to identify the regionrsquos electricity needs and actions for meeting these needs in order to maintain reliable and economic operation of New Englandrsquos bulk power system over a ten-year horizon The Regional System Plan (RSP) is conducted every two years and the last one was published in 2017 The RSP17 and the regional system planning process which identifies the regionrsquos electricity needs and plans for meeting these needs for 2017 through 2026

Figure 7(d) New England Transmission Limits

22 See httpwwwiso-necomtransrspindexhtml

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 28 Final Report

Details regarding the development of the transmission representation for New England shown in Figure 7(d) can be found in the New England Regional System Plan 22 The Regional System Plan is ISO New Englandrsquos (ISO) planning efforts to identify the regionrsquos electricity needs and actions for meeting these needs in order to maintain reliable and economic operation of New Englandrsquos bulk power system over a ten-year horizon The Regional System Plan (RSP) is conducted every two years and the last one was published in 2017 The RSP17 and the regional system planning process which identifies the regionrsquos electricity needs and plans for meeting these needs for 2017 through 2026

Figure 7(d) New England Transmission Limits

22 See httpwwwiso-necomtransrspindexhtml

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 29 Final Report

Details regarding the development of the transmission representation for Ontario shown in Figure 7(e) can be found in the Ontario Transmission System 23

Figure 7(e) Ontario Transmission Limits

The modeling of Quebec shown in Figure 7(f) is consistent with the NPCC 2017 Queacutebec Balancing Authority Area Comprehensive Review of Resource Adequacy 24

23 See httpwwwiesocaDocumentsmarketReportsOntTxSystem_2014junpdf 24 See httpswwwnpccorgLibraryResource20Adequacy201720Quebec20Comprehensive20Reviewpdf

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 30 Final Report

Figure 7(f) Quebec Transmission Limits

The modeling of the PJM-RTO is shown in Figure 7 The PJM-RTO was divided into five distinct areas Eastern Mid-Atlantic Central Mid-Atlantic Western Mid-Atlantic PJM West and PJM South This represents a slight departure from modeling practices prior to 2014 in which PJM West and PJM South were combined into one region (PJM Rest) This modeling change was justified on grounds that the PJM South area (Dominion Virginia Power) is a member of SERC while practically all the PJM West area is a member of RFC Furthermore PJM West and PJM South are two separate areas in the PJM Capacity Market framework (PJMrsquos Reliability Pricing Model)

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 31 Final Report

Assistance from External Resources All Areas received assistance on a shared basis in proportion to their deficiency In this analysis each step was initiated simultaneously in all Areas and sub-Areas A detailed representation of the neighboring regions of PJM and MISO (Midcontinent Independent System Operator) was assumed The assumptions are summarized in Table 5 and Figure 8

Table 5

PJM RFC-Other and MRO-US 2019 Assumptions 25

PJM MISO

Peak Load (MW) 154321 95432

Peak Month July August

Assumed Capacity (MW) 189433 111772

PurchaseSale (MW) 1999 -3134

Reserve () 30 18

Operating Reserves (MW) 3400 3906

Curtailable Load (MW) 9113 4272

No 30-min Reserves (MW) 2765 2670

Voltage Reduction (MW) 2201 2200

No 10-min Reserves (MW) 635 1236

Appeals (MW) 400 400

Load Forecast Uncertainty +- 135 90 45

+- 111 75 37

25 Load and capacity assumptions for RFC-Other and MRO-US based on NERCrsquos Electricity Supply and Demand Database

(ESampD) available at httpwwwnerccom~esd

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 31 Final Report

Assistance from External Resources All Areas received assistance on a shared basis in proportion to their deficiency In this analysis each step was initiated simultaneously in all Areas and sub-Areas A detailed representation of the neighboring regions of PJM and MISO (Midcontinent Independent System Operator) was assumed The assumptions are summarized in Table 5 and Figure 8

Table 5

PJM RFC-Other and MRO-US 2019 Assumptions 25

PJM MISO

Peak Load (MW) 154321 95432

Peak Month July August

Assumed Capacity (MW) 189433 111772

PurchaseSale (MW) 1999 -3134

Reserve () 30 18

Operating Reserves (MW) 3400 3906

Curtailable Load (MW) 9113 4272

No 30-min Reserves (MW) 2765 2670

Voltage Reduction (MW) 2201 2200

No 10-min Reserves (MW) 635 1236

Appeals (MW) 400 400

Load Forecast Uncertainty +- 135 90 45

+- 111 75 37

25 Load and capacity assumptions for RFC-Other and MRO-US based on NERCrsquos Electricity Supply and Demand Database

(ESampD) available at httpwwwnerccom~esd

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 32 Final Report

Figure 8 - 2019 Projected Monthly Expected Peak Loads for NPCC PJM and the MRO

MISO The Mid-Continent Independent System Operator Inc (MISO) is a not-for-profit member-based organization administering wholesale electricity markets in all or parts of 15 states in the US For this study the MISO region (minus the Entergy region) was included in the analysis replacing the RFC-OTH and MRO-US regions In previous versions of the NPCC Long Range Adequacy Overview RFC-OTH and MRO-US were included to represent specific areas of MISO however due to difficulties in gathering load and capacity data for these two regions (since most of the reporting is done at the MISO level) the Working Group decided to start including the entirety of MISO in the model MISO was modeled in this study due to the strong transmission ties of the region with the rest of the study system MISO unit data was obtained from the publicly available NERC datasets Each individual unit represented in MISO was then assigned unit performance characteristics based on PJM RTO fleet class averages (consistent with PJM 2018 RRS Report) MISO load data was obtained from publicly available sources namely FERC Form 714 and the 2018-2019 MISO LOLE Study Report 26

26 https wwwmisoenergyorgLibraryRepositoryStudyLOLE201720LOLE20Study20Reportpdf

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 33 Final Report

PJM-RTO The annual PJM Reserve Requirement Study (RRS) calculates the reserve margin that is required to comply with the Reliability Principles and Standards as defined in the PJM Reliability Assurance Agreement (RAA) and ReliabilityFirst Corporation (RFC) in compliance with Standard BAL-502-RFC-02 This study is conducted each year in accordance with the process outlined in PJM Manual 20 (M-20) PJM Resource Adequacy Analysis M-20 focuses on the process and procedure for establishing the resource adequacy (capacity) required to reliably serve customer load with sufficient reserves The results of the RRS provide key inputs to the PJM Reliability Pricing Model (RPM) The results of the RRS are also incorporated into PJMrsquos Regional Transmission Expansion Plan (RTEP) process pursuant to Schedule 6 of the PJM Operating Agreement for the enhancement and expansion of the transmission system in order to meet the demands for firm transmission service in the PJM Region Load Model PJMrsquos Load Forecast issued in January 2018 27 was used in this study The methods and techniques used in the load forecasting process are documented in Manual 19 28 (Load Forecasting and Analysis) and Manual 20 29 (PJM Resource Adequacy Analysis) The hourly load shape is based on observed 2002 calendar year values which reflects representative weather and economic conditions for a peak planning study The hourly loads were then adjusted per the 2018 PJM Load Forecast Report on a monthly basis The load forecast uncertainty considered in this study is consistent with other recent probabilistic PJM models (the PJM Reserve Requirement Study specifically) This load uncertainty typically reflects factors such as weather economics diversity (timing) of peak periods among internal PJM zones or regions and the forecast horizon Generation Model Performance statistics such as outage rates and planned outages for generation units considered in the study are based on 5-year (2013 -17) GADS data This is consistent with modeling practices in the 2018 PJM Reserve Requirement Study Wind and solar units are assigned a forced outage rate of 0 and a capacity credit factor computed based on generating output on peak hours (hours ending 3 4 5 and 6 PM Local Prevailing Time) during the past three summer periods 27 httpswwwpjmcom-medialibraryreports-noticesload-forecast2018-load-forecast-reportashx 28 httpwwwpjmcom~mediadocumentsmanualsm19ashx 29 httpwwwpjmcom~mediadocumentsmanualsm20ashx

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 34 Final Report

Definition of Loss-of-Load Event NPCC Regional Reliability Reference Directory No 1 Design and Operation of the Bulk Power System Resource Adequacy ndash Design Criteria states 30 Resource Adequacy R4 Each Planning Coordinator or Resource Planner shall probabilistically evaluate resource adequacy of its Planning Coordinator Area portion of the bulk power system to demonstrate that the loss of load expectation (LOLE) of disconnecting firm load due to resource deficiencies is on average no more than 01 days per year R41 Make due allowances for demand uncertainty scheduled outages and deratings forced outages and deratings assistance over interconnections with neighboring Planning Coordinator Areas transmission transfer capabilities and capacity andor load relief from available operating procedures Area operators may invoke their available operating procedures in any order depending on the situation faced at the time for this analysis the reliability indices were calculated following the sequential order shown in the tables below the CP-8 Working Group agreed that modeling the actions this way was a reasonable approximation for this analysis It should be recognized that changing the assumed order of the operating procedures in the analysis will change the magnitude of the calculated indices The highlighted values for the metrics in the Tables 6 and 7 estimates below are consistent with NPCCrsquos Resource Adequacy ndash Design Criteria ie they are calculated following all possible allowable ldquoload relief from available operating proceduresrdquo

30 See httpswwwnpccorgStandardsDirectoriesDirectory_1_TFCP_rev_20151001_GJDpdf

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 35 Final Report

Base Case Results

Table 6(a) Base Case Results for 2020 ndash LOLH (hoursyear)

Expected Load HQ MT NE NY ON Activation of DRSCR 0281 - - 0277 0144 Reduce 30-min Reserve 0000 0098 0317 0128 0027 Interrupt LoadsVoltage Reduction 0000 0030 0169 0022 0003 Reduce 10-min Reserve 0000 0000 0105 0008 0000 Appeals 0000 0000 0105 0006 0000 Disconnect Load 0000 0000 0027 0001 0000

Table 6(b) Base Case Results for 2020 ndash EUE (MWh of EUE per Million MWh of Annual Load Energy)

Expected Load HQ MT NE NY ON Activation of DRSCR 0277 - - 0718 0438 Reduce 30-min Reserve 0000 0147 2012 0200 0062 Interrupt LoadsVoltage Reduction 0000 0041 0898 0043 0004 Reduce 10-min Reserve 0000 0001 0499 0012 0000 Appeals 0000 0000 0498 0009 0000 Disconnect Load 0000 0000 0091 0000 0000

Table 6(c) Base Case Results for 2020 ndash EUE

(MWh of Unserved Energy)

Expected Load HQ MT NE NY ON Activation of DRSCR 53392 - - 110775 58258 Reduce 30-min Reserve 0092 4018 277570 30872 8279 Interrupt LoadsVoltage Reduction 0000 1131 123842 6574 0548 Reduce 10-min Reserve 0000 0020 68889 1908 0031 Appeals 0000 0000 68710 1416 0000 Disconnect Load 0000 0000 12526 0073 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 36 Final Report

Table 7(a) Base Case Results for 2022 ndash LOLH

(hoursyear)

Expected Load HQ MT NE NY ON Activation of DRSCR 1184 - - 0433 0290 Reduce 30-min Reserve 0066 0121 0202 0154 0052 Interrupt LoadsVoltage Reduction 0005 0048 0085 0027 0006 Reduce 10-min Reserve 0001 0003 0044 0006 0001 Appeals 0000 0000 0044 0004 0000 Disconnect Load 0000 0000 0007 0000 0000

Table 7(b) Base Case Results for 2022 ndash EUE (MWh of EUE per Million MWh of Annual Load Energy)

Expected Load HQ MT NE NY ON Activation of DRSCR 2723 - - 1251 1272 Reduce 30-min Reserve 0076 0267 1134 0270 0223 Interrupt LoadsVoltage Reduction 0004 0095 0384 0044 0022 Reduce 10-min Reserve 0000 0005 0179 0009 0002 Appeals 0000 0000 0175 0006 0000 Disconnect Load 0000 0000 0019 0000 0000

Table 7(c) Base Case Results for 2022 ndash EUE

(MWh of Unserved Energy) Expected Load HQ MT NE NY ON Activation of DRSCR 515004 - - 191083 168517 Reduce 30-min Reserve 14341 7248 158517 41202 29472 Interrupt LoadsVoltage Reduction 0671 2578 53657 6675 2864 Reduce 10-min Reserve 0060 0141 24962 1348 0202 Appeals 0000 0002 24485 0961 0005 Disconnect Load 0000 0002 2713 0032 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 37 Final Report

Sensitivity Results The sensitivity case estimated the Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) while increasing load forecasts In 2022 both energy and peak load were increased so that the base reserve margin is reduced by 13 and 23 respectively Tables 8 and 9 show the results after increasing the load For the first case all five NPCC Areas LOLH values were lt1 houryear the New England Area had the largest amount of EUE (ppm)

Table 8(a) Sensitivity Case Results for 2022 (13) ndash LOLH (hoursyear)

Expected Load HQ MT NE NY ON Curtail Load Utility Surplus 7076 - - 7789 2327

No 30-min Reserves 1193 1915 2022 4247 0923

Volt Red or Inter Loads 0659 0859 1086 1999 0352 No 10-min Reserves (NY - Public Appeals)

0419 0122 0755 0917 0151

General Public Appeals (NY - No 10-min)

0082 0005 0735 0795 0039

Disconnect Load 0072 0005 0336 0191 0009

Table 8(b) Sensitivity Case Results for 2022 (13) ndash EUE (MWh of EUE per Million MWh of Annual Load Energy)

Expected Load HQ MT NE NY ON Curtail Load Utility Surplus 25306 - - 36139 13776

No 30-min Reserves 4399 8328 16638 14873 4923

Volt Red or Inter Loads 1926 2666 9220 6203 1747 No 10-min Reserves (NY - Public Appeals)

1033 0356 6352 2656 0630

General Public Appeals (NY - No 10-min)

0095 0009 6253 2270 0115

Disconnect Load 0081 0009 2338 0365 0018

Table 8(c) Sensitivity Case Results for 2022 (13) ndash EUE (MWh of Unserved Energy)

Expected Load HQ MT NE NY ON Curtail Load Utility Surplus 4973158 - - 6003105 1945744

No 30-min Reserves 864502 241862 2507368 2470523 695354

Volt Red or Inter Loads 378447 77421 1389379 1030377 246740 No 10-min Reserves (NY - Public Appeals)

202955 10330 957179 441183 88941

General Public Appeals (NY - No 10-min)

18752 0274 942345 376993 16248

Disconnect Load 16004 0268 352260 60708 2557

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 38 Final Report

For the second case the New England and New York Area had the greatest amount in EUE (ppm) and increase in LOLH (hoursyear) occurring in the summer months

Table 9(a) Sensitivity Case Results for 2022 (23) ndash LOLH (hoursyear)

Expected Load HQ MT NE NY ON Curtail Load Utility Surplus 27929 - - 51062 16098

No 30-min Reserves 8435 23871 11362 36303 10818

Volt Red or Inter Loads 5331 14353 8077 25342 7032 No 10-min Reserves (NY - Public Appeals)

3861 4475 6634 16751 4737

General Public Appeals (NY - No 10-min)

1418 0511 6377 15658 2461

Disconnect Load 1368 0509 3355 7445 1150

Table 9(b) Sensitivity Case Results for 2022 (23) ndash EUE (MWh of EUE per Million MWh of Annual Load Energy)

Expected Load HQ MT NE NY ON Curtail Load Utility Surplus 139555 - - 374308 110037 No 30-min Reserves 41040 156978 125563 218548 73118

Volt Red or Inter Loads 23130 73520 85877 134591 45483 No 10-min Reserves (NY - Public Appeals)

15877 22274 66214 83279 27228

General Public Appeals (NY - No 10-min)

5485 1486 65481 76694 9980

Disconnect Load 5278 1450 31045 27690 3695

Table 9(c) Sensitivity Case Results for 2022 (23) ndash EUE (MWh of Unserved Energy)

Expected Load HQ MT NE NY ON Curtail Load Utility Surplus 28541536 - - 67560015 16651628

No 30-min Reserves 8393455 4899425 20523367 39446388 11064776

Volt Red or Inter Loads 4730538 2294641 14036633 24292723 6882780 No 10-min Reserves (NY - Public Appeals)

3247171 695190 10822794 15031373 4120306

General Public Appeals (NY - No 10-min)

1121726 46388 10702943 13842656 1510261

Disconnect Load 1079364 45267 5074358 4997912 559120

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 39 Final Report

Comparison with the 2016 Assessment

Table 10(a) - New England 2016 assessment comparison for the year 2020

Year

Net Energy for Load (GWh)

Forecast 5050 Peak

Demand (MW)

Forecast Capacity

Resources (MW)

Forecast Operable Capacity

Resources (MW)

Expected Unsupplied

Energy (EUE)

(MWh ndash ppm 31 )

Loss of Load Hours

(LOLH) (hoursyr)

Forecast Planning Reserve

Margin ()

Forecast Operable Reserve Margin

() 2020 144208 26789 31160 28891 140877 - 0977 0189 180 94 2020 137934 29504 32177 30030 12526 - 0091 0027 293 207

Results from the 2016 Probabilistic Assessment

The previous study NERC RAS Long-Term Reliability Assessment ndash NPCC Region 32 estimated an annual LOLH = 0189 hoursyear and a corresponding EUE equal to 1409 MWh for the year 2020 The Forecast 5050 Peak Demand for 2020 was lower than reported in the previous study with higher estimated Forecast Planning and Forecast Operable Reserve Margins As a result both the LOLH and the EUE have improved for 2020

Table 10(b) - New York 2016 assessment comparison for the year 2020

Year

Net Energy for Load (GWh)

Forecast 5050 Peak

Demand (MW)

Forecast Capacity

Resources (MW)

Forecast Operable Capacity

Resources (MW)

Expected Unsupplied

Energy (EUE) (MWh ndash ppm 33 )

Loss of Load Hours

(LOLH) (hoursyr)

Forecast Planning Reserve

Margin ()

Forecast Operable Reserve Margin

() 2020 157670 33501 42038 38310 2059 - 0013 0004 303 188 2020 155567 32629 39419 36628 0073 - 0000 0001 241 153

Results from the 2016 Probabilistic Assessment

The previous study NERC RAS Long-Term Reliability Assessment ndash NPCC Region 34 estimated an annual LOLH = 0004 hoursyear and a corresponding EUE equal to 2059 MWh for the year 2020 The Forecast 5050 Peak Demand for 2020 was lower than reported in the previous study with lower estimated Forecast Reserve Margins resulting in decreased EUE for 2020

31 MWh of EUE per Million MWh of Annual Load Energy 32 See httpswwwnpccorgLibraryResource20Adequacy201620NERC20RAS20Probabilistic20Assessment20NPCC20Region20(February207202017)pdf 33 MWh of EUE per Million MWh of Annual Load Energy 34See httpswwwnpccorgLibraryResource20Adequacy201620NERC20RAS20Probabilistic20Assessment20NPCC20Region20(February207202017)pdf

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 36 Final Report

Table 7(a) Base Case Results for 2022 ndash LOLH

(hoursyear)

Expected Load HQ MT NE NY ON Activation of DRSCR 1184 - - 0433 0290 Reduce 30-min Reserve 0066 0121 0202 0154 0052 Interrupt LoadsVoltage Reduction 0005 0048 0085 0027 0006 Reduce 10-min Reserve 0001 0003 0044 0006 0001 Appeals 0000 0000 0044 0004 0000 Disconnect Load 0000 0000 0007 0000 0000

Table 7(b) Base Case Results for 2022 ndash EUE (MWh of EUE per Million MWh of Annual Load Energy)

Expected Load HQ MT NE NY ON Activation of DRSCR 2723 - - 1251 1272 Reduce 30-min Reserve 0076 0267 1134 0270 0223 Interrupt LoadsVoltage Reduction 0004 0095 0384 0044 0022 Reduce 10-min Reserve 0000 0005 0179 0009 0002 Appeals 0000 0000 0175 0006 0000 Disconnect Load 0000 0000 0019 0000 0000

Table 7(c) Base Case Results for 2022 ndash EUE

(MWh of Unserved Energy) Expected Load HQ MT NE NY ON Activation of DRSCR 515004 - - 191083 168517 Reduce 30-min Reserve 14341 7248 158517 41202 29472 Interrupt LoadsVoltage Reduction 0671 2578 53657 6675 2864 Reduce 10-min Reserve 0060 0141 24962 1348 0202 Appeals 0000 0002 24485 0961 0005 Disconnect Load 0000 0002 2713 0032 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 37 Final Report

Sensitivity Results The sensitivity case estimated the Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) while increasing load forecasts In 2022 both energy and peak load were increased so that the base reserve margin is reduced by 13 and 23 respectively Tables 8 and 9 show the results after increasing the load For the first case all five NPCC Areas LOLH values were lt1 houryear the New England Area had the largest amount of EUE (ppm)

Table 8(a) Sensitivity Case Results for 2022 (13) ndash LOLH (hoursyear)

Expected Load HQ MT NE NY ON Curtail Load Utility Surplus 7076 - - 7789 2327

No 30-min Reserves 1193 1915 2022 4247 0923

Volt Red or Inter Loads 0659 0859 1086 1999 0352 No 10-min Reserves (NY - Public Appeals)

0419 0122 0755 0917 0151

General Public Appeals (NY - No 10-min)

0082 0005 0735 0795 0039

Disconnect Load 0072 0005 0336 0191 0009

Table 8(b) Sensitivity Case Results for 2022 (13) ndash EUE (MWh of EUE per Million MWh of Annual Load Energy)

Expected Load HQ MT NE NY ON Curtail Load Utility Surplus 25306 - - 36139 13776

No 30-min Reserves 4399 8328 16638 14873 4923

Volt Red or Inter Loads 1926 2666 9220 6203 1747 No 10-min Reserves (NY - Public Appeals)

1033 0356 6352 2656 0630

General Public Appeals (NY - No 10-min)

0095 0009 6253 2270 0115

Disconnect Load 0081 0009 2338 0365 0018

Table 8(c) Sensitivity Case Results for 2022 (13) ndash EUE (MWh of Unserved Energy)

Expected Load HQ MT NE NY ON Curtail Load Utility Surplus 4973158 - - 6003105 1945744

No 30-min Reserves 864502 241862 2507368 2470523 695354

Volt Red or Inter Loads 378447 77421 1389379 1030377 246740 No 10-min Reserves (NY - Public Appeals)

202955 10330 957179 441183 88941

General Public Appeals (NY - No 10-min)

18752 0274 942345 376993 16248

Disconnect Load 16004 0268 352260 60708 2557

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 38 Final Report

For the second case the New England and New York Area had the greatest amount in EUE (ppm) and increase in LOLH (hoursyear) occurring in the summer months

Table 9(a) Sensitivity Case Results for 2022 (23) ndash LOLH (hoursyear)

Expected Load HQ MT NE NY ON Curtail Load Utility Surplus 27929 - - 51062 16098

No 30-min Reserves 8435 23871 11362 36303 10818

Volt Red or Inter Loads 5331 14353 8077 25342 7032 No 10-min Reserves (NY - Public Appeals)

3861 4475 6634 16751 4737

General Public Appeals (NY - No 10-min)

1418 0511 6377 15658 2461

Disconnect Load 1368 0509 3355 7445 1150

Table 9(b) Sensitivity Case Results for 2022 (23) ndash EUE (MWh of EUE per Million MWh of Annual Load Energy)

Expected Load HQ MT NE NY ON Curtail Load Utility Surplus 139555 - - 374308 110037 No 30-min Reserves 41040 156978 125563 218548 73118

Volt Red or Inter Loads 23130 73520 85877 134591 45483 No 10-min Reserves (NY - Public Appeals)

15877 22274 66214 83279 27228

General Public Appeals (NY - No 10-min)

5485 1486 65481 76694 9980

Disconnect Load 5278 1450 31045 27690 3695

Table 9(c) Sensitivity Case Results for 2022 (23) ndash EUE (MWh of Unserved Energy)

Expected Load HQ MT NE NY ON Curtail Load Utility Surplus 28541536 - - 67560015 16651628

No 30-min Reserves 8393455 4899425 20523367 39446388 11064776

Volt Red or Inter Loads 4730538 2294641 14036633 24292723 6882780 No 10-min Reserves (NY - Public Appeals)

3247171 695190 10822794 15031373 4120306

General Public Appeals (NY - No 10-min)

1121726 46388 10702943 13842656 1510261

Disconnect Load 1079364 45267 5074358 4997912 559120

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 39 Final Report

Comparison with the 2016 Assessment

Table 10(a) - New England 2016 assessment comparison for the year 2020

Year

Net Energy for Load (GWh)

Forecast 5050 Peak

Demand (MW)

Forecast Capacity

Resources (MW)

Forecast Operable Capacity

Resources (MW)

Expected Unsupplied

Energy (EUE)

(MWh ndash ppm 31 )

Loss of Load Hours

(LOLH) (hoursyr)

Forecast Planning Reserve

Margin ()

Forecast Operable Reserve Margin

() 2020 144208 26789 31160 28891 140877 - 0977 0189 180 94 2020 137934 29504 32177 30030 12526 - 0091 0027 293 207

Results from the 2016 Probabilistic Assessment

The previous study NERC RAS Long-Term Reliability Assessment ndash NPCC Region 32 estimated an annual LOLH = 0189 hoursyear and a corresponding EUE equal to 1409 MWh for the year 2020 The Forecast 5050 Peak Demand for 2020 was lower than reported in the previous study with higher estimated Forecast Planning and Forecast Operable Reserve Margins As a result both the LOLH and the EUE have improved for 2020

Table 10(b) - New York 2016 assessment comparison for the year 2020

Year

Net Energy for Load (GWh)

Forecast 5050 Peak

Demand (MW)

Forecast Capacity

Resources (MW)

Forecast Operable Capacity

Resources (MW)

Expected Unsupplied

Energy (EUE) (MWh ndash ppm 33 )

Loss of Load Hours

(LOLH) (hoursyr)

Forecast Planning Reserve

Margin ()

Forecast Operable Reserve Margin

() 2020 157670 33501 42038 38310 2059 - 0013 0004 303 188 2020 155567 32629 39419 36628 0073 - 0000 0001 241 153

Results from the 2016 Probabilistic Assessment

The previous study NERC RAS Long-Term Reliability Assessment ndash NPCC Region 34 estimated an annual LOLH = 0004 hoursyear and a corresponding EUE equal to 2059 MWh for the year 2020 The Forecast 5050 Peak Demand for 2020 was lower than reported in the previous study with lower estimated Forecast Reserve Margins resulting in decreased EUE for 2020

31 MWh of EUE per Million MWh of Annual Load Energy 32 See httpswwwnpccorgLibraryResource20Adequacy201620NERC20RAS20Probabilistic20Assessment20NPCC20Region20(February207202017)pdf 33 MWh of EUE per Million MWh of Annual Load Energy 34See httpswwwnpccorgLibraryResource20Adequacy201620NERC20RAS20Probabilistic20Assessment20NPCC20Region20(February207202017)pdf

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 37 Final Report

Sensitivity Results The sensitivity case estimated the Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) while increasing load forecasts In 2022 both energy and peak load were increased so that the base reserve margin is reduced by 13 and 23 respectively Tables 8 and 9 show the results after increasing the load For the first case all five NPCC Areas LOLH values were lt1 houryear the New England Area had the largest amount of EUE (ppm)

Table 8(a) Sensitivity Case Results for 2022 (13) ndash LOLH (hoursyear)

Expected Load HQ MT NE NY ON Curtail Load Utility Surplus 7076 - - 7789 2327

No 30-min Reserves 1193 1915 2022 4247 0923

Volt Red or Inter Loads 0659 0859 1086 1999 0352 No 10-min Reserves (NY - Public Appeals)

0419 0122 0755 0917 0151

General Public Appeals (NY - No 10-min)

0082 0005 0735 0795 0039

Disconnect Load 0072 0005 0336 0191 0009

Table 8(b) Sensitivity Case Results for 2022 (13) ndash EUE (MWh of EUE per Million MWh of Annual Load Energy)

Expected Load HQ MT NE NY ON Curtail Load Utility Surplus 25306 - - 36139 13776

No 30-min Reserves 4399 8328 16638 14873 4923

Volt Red or Inter Loads 1926 2666 9220 6203 1747 No 10-min Reserves (NY - Public Appeals)

1033 0356 6352 2656 0630

General Public Appeals (NY - No 10-min)

0095 0009 6253 2270 0115

Disconnect Load 0081 0009 2338 0365 0018

Table 8(c) Sensitivity Case Results for 2022 (13) ndash EUE (MWh of Unserved Energy)

Expected Load HQ MT NE NY ON Curtail Load Utility Surplus 4973158 - - 6003105 1945744

No 30-min Reserves 864502 241862 2507368 2470523 695354

Volt Red or Inter Loads 378447 77421 1389379 1030377 246740 No 10-min Reserves (NY - Public Appeals)

202955 10330 957179 441183 88941

General Public Appeals (NY - No 10-min)

18752 0274 942345 376993 16248

Disconnect Load 16004 0268 352260 60708 2557

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 38 Final Report

For the second case the New England and New York Area had the greatest amount in EUE (ppm) and increase in LOLH (hoursyear) occurring in the summer months

Table 9(a) Sensitivity Case Results for 2022 (23) ndash LOLH (hoursyear)

Expected Load HQ MT NE NY ON Curtail Load Utility Surplus 27929 - - 51062 16098

No 30-min Reserves 8435 23871 11362 36303 10818

Volt Red or Inter Loads 5331 14353 8077 25342 7032 No 10-min Reserves (NY - Public Appeals)

3861 4475 6634 16751 4737

General Public Appeals (NY - No 10-min)

1418 0511 6377 15658 2461

Disconnect Load 1368 0509 3355 7445 1150

Table 9(b) Sensitivity Case Results for 2022 (23) ndash EUE (MWh of EUE per Million MWh of Annual Load Energy)

Expected Load HQ MT NE NY ON Curtail Load Utility Surplus 139555 - - 374308 110037 No 30-min Reserves 41040 156978 125563 218548 73118

Volt Red or Inter Loads 23130 73520 85877 134591 45483 No 10-min Reserves (NY - Public Appeals)

15877 22274 66214 83279 27228

General Public Appeals (NY - No 10-min)

5485 1486 65481 76694 9980

Disconnect Load 5278 1450 31045 27690 3695

Table 9(c) Sensitivity Case Results for 2022 (23) ndash EUE (MWh of Unserved Energy)

Expected Load HQ MT NE NY ON Curtail Load Utility Surplus 28541536 - - 67560015 16651628

No 30-min Reserves 8393455 4899425 20523367 39446388 11064776

Volt Red or Inter Loads 4730538 2294641 14036633 24292723 6882780 No 10-min Reserves (NY - Public Appeals)

3247171 695190 10822794 15031373 4120306

General Public Appeals (NY - No 10-min)

1121726 46388 10702943 13842656 1510261

Disconnect Load 1079364 45267 5074358 4997912 559120

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 39 Final Report

Comparison with the 2016 Assessment

Table 10(a) - New England 2016 assessment comparison for the year 2020

Year

Net Energy for Load (GWh)

Forecast 5050 Peak

Demand (MW)

Forecast Capacity

Resources (MW)

Forecast Operable Capacity

Resources (MW)

Expected Unsupplied

Energy (EUE)

(MWh ndash ppm 31 )

Loss of Load Hours

(LOLH) (hoursyr)

Forecast Planning Reserve

Margin ()

Forecast Operable Reserve Margin

() 2020 144208 26789 31160 28891 140877 - 0977 0189 180 94 2020 137934 29504 32177 30030 12526 - 0091 0027 293 207

Results from the 2016 Probabilistic Assessment

The previous study NERC RAS Long-Term Reliability Assessment ndash NPCC Region 32 estimated an annual LOLH = 0189 hoursyear and a corresponding EUE equal to 1409 MWh for the year 2020 The Forecast 5050 Peak Demand for 2020 was lower than reported in the previous study with higher estimated Forecast Planning and Forecast Operable Reserve Margins As a result both the LOLH and the EUE have improved for 2020

Table 10(b) - New York 2016 assessment comparison for the year 2020

Year

Net Energy for Load (GWh)

Forecast 5050 Peak

Demand (MW)

Forecast Capacity

Resources (MW)

Forecast Operable Capacity

Resources (MW)

Expected Unsupplied

Energy (EUE) (MWh ndash ppm 33 )

Loss of Load Hours

(LOLH) (hoursyr)

Forecast Planning Reserve

Margin ()

Forecast Operable Reserve Margin

() 2020 157670 33501 42038 38310 2059 - 0013 0004 303 188 2020 155567 32629 39419 36628 0073 - 0000 0001 241 153

Results from the 2016 Probabilistic Assessment

The previous study NERC RAS Long-Term Reliability Assessment ndash NPCC Region 34 estimated an annual LOLH = 0004 hoursyear and a corresponding EUE equal to 2059 MWh for the year 2020 The Forecast 5050 Peak Demand for 2020 was lower than reported in the previous study with lower estimated Forecast Reserve Margins resulting in decreased EUE for 2020

31 MWh of EUE per Million MWh of Annual Load Energy 32 See httpswwwnpccorgLibraryResource20Adequacy201620NERC20RAS20Probabilistic20Assessment20NPCC20Region20(February207202017)pdf 33 MWh of EUE per Million MWh of Annual Load Energy 34See httpswwwnpccorgLibraryResource20Adequacy201620NERC20RAS20Probabilistic20Assessment20NPCC20Region20(February207202017)pdf

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 38 Final Report

For the second case the New England and New York Area had the greatest amount in EUE (ppm) and increase in LOLH (hoursyear) occurring in the summer months

Table 9(a) Sensitivity Case Results for 2022 (23) ndash LOLH (hoursyear)

Expected Load HQ MT NE NY ON Curtail Load Utility Surplus 27929 - - 51062 16098

No 30-min Reserves 8435 23871 11362 36303 10818

Volt Red or Inter Loads 5331 14353 8077 25342 7032 No 10-min Reserves (NY - Public Appeals)

3861 4475 6634 16751 4737

General Public Appeals (NY - No 10-min)

1418 0511 6377 15658 2461

Disconnect Load 1368 0509 3355 7445 1150

Table 9(b) Sensitivity Case Results for 2022 (23) ndash EUE (MWh of EUE per Million MWh of Annual Load Energy)

Expected Load HQ MT NE NY ON Curtail Load Utility Surplus 139555 - - 374308 110037 No 30-min Reserves 41040 156978 125563 218548 73118

Volt Red or Inter Loads 23130 73520 85877 134591 45483 No 10-min Reserves (NY - Public Appeals)

15877 22274 66214 83279 27228

General Public Appeals (NY - No 10-min)

5485 1486 65481 76694 9980

Disconnect Load 5278 1450 31045 27690 3695

Table 9(c) Sensitivity Case Results for 2022 (23) ndash EUE (MWh of Unserved Energy)

Expected Load HQ MT NE NY ON Curtail Load Utility Surplus 28541536 - - 67560015 16651628

No 30-min Reserves 8393455 4899425 20523367 39446388 11064776

Volt Red or Inter Loads 4730538 2294641 14036633 24292723 6882780 No 10-min Reserves (NY - Public Appeals)

3247171 695190 10822794 15031373 4120306

General Public Appeals (NY - No 10-min)

1121726 46388 10702943 13842656 1510261

Disconnect Load 1079364 45267 5074358 4997912 559120

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 39 Final Report

Comparison with the 2016 Assessment

Table 10(a) - New England 2016 assessment comparison for the year 2020

Year

Net Energy for Load (GWh)

Forecast 5050 Peak

Demand (MW)

Forecast Capacity

Resources (MW)

Forecast Operable Capacity

Resources (MW)

Expected Unsupplied

Energy (EUE)

(MWh ndash ppm 31 )

Loss of Load Hours

(LOLH) (hoursyr)

Forecast Planning Reserve

Margin ()

Forecast Operable Reserve Margin

() 2020 144208 26789 31160 28891 140877 - 0977 0189 180 94 2020 137934 29504 32177 30030 12526 - 0091 0027 293 207

Results from the 2016 Probabilistic Assessment

The previous study NERC RAS Long-Term Reliability Assessment ndash NPCC Region 32 estimated an annual LOLH = 0189 hoursyear and a corresponding EUE equal to 1409 MWh for the year 2020 The Forecast 5050 Peak Demand for 2020 was lower than reported in the previous study with higher estimated Forecast Planning and Forecast Operable Reserve Margins As a result both the LOLH and the EUE have improved for 2020

Table 10(b) - New York 2016 assessment comparison for the year 2020

Year

Net Energy for Load (GWh)

Forecast 5050 Peak

Demand (MW)

Forecast Capacity

Resources (MW)

Forecast Operable Capacity

Resources (MW)

Expected Unsupplied

Energy (EUE) (MWh ndash ppm 33 )

Loss of Load Hours

(LOLH) (hoursyr)

Forecast Planning Reserve

Margin ()

Forecast Operable Reserve Margin

() 2020 157670 33501 42038 38310 2059 - 0013 0004 303 188 2020 155567 32629 39419 36628 0073 - 0000 0001 241 153

Results from the 2016 Probabilistic Assessment

The previous study NERC RAS Long-Term Reliability Assessment ndash NPCC Region 34 estimated an annual LOLH = 0004 hoursyear and a corresponding EUE equal to 2059 MWh for the year 2020 The Forecast 5050 Peak Demand for 2020 was lower than reported in the previous study with lower estimated Forecast Reserve Margins resulting in decreased EUE for 2020

31 MWh of EUE per Million MWh of Annual Load Energy 32 See httpswwwnpccorgLibraryResource20Adequacy201620NERC20RAS20Probabilistic20Assessment20NPCC20Region20(February207202017)pdf 33 MWh of EUE per Million MWh of Annual Load Energy 34See httpswwwnpccorgLibraryResource20Adequacy201620NERC20RAS20Probabilistic20Assessment20NPCC20Region20(February207202017)pdf

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 39 Final Report

Comparison with the 2016 Assessment

Table 10(a) - New England 2016 assessment comparison for the year 2020

Year

Net Energy for Load (GWh)

Forecast 5050 Peak

Demand (MW)

Forecast Capacity

Resources (MW)

Forecast Operable Capacity

Resources (MW)

Expected Unsupplied

Energy (EUE)

(MWh ndash ppm 31 )

Loss of Load Hours

(LOLH) (hoursyr)

Forecast Planning Reserve

Margin ()

Forecast Operable Reserve Margin

() 2020 144208 26789 31160 28891 140877 - 0977 0189 180 94 2020 137934 29504 32177 30030 12526 - 0091 0027 293 207

Results from the 2016 Probabilistic Assessment

The previous study NERC RAS Long-Term Reliability Assessment ndash NPCC Region 32 estimated an annual LOLH = 0189 hoursyear and a corresponding EUE equal to 1409 MWh for the year 2020 The Forecast 5050 Peak Demand for 2020 was lower than reported in the previous study with higher estimated Forecast Planning and Forecast Operable Reserve Margins As a result both the LOLH and the EUE have improved for 2020

Table 10(b) - New York 2016 assessment comparison for the year 2020

Year

Net Energy for Load (GWh)

Forecast 5050 Peak

Demand (MW)

Forecast Capacity

Resources (MW)

Forecast Operable Capacity

Resources (MW)

Expected Unsupplied

Energy (EUE) (MWh ndash ppm 33 )

Loss of Load Hours

(LOLH) (hoursyr)

Forecast Planning Reserve

Margin ()

Forecast Operable Reserve Margin

() 2020 157670 33501 42038 38310 2059 - 0013 0004 303 188 2020 155567 32629 39419 36628 0073 - 0000 0001 241 153

Results from the 2016 Probabilistic Assessment

The previous study NERC RAS Long-Term Reliability Assessment ndash NPCC Region 34 estimated an annual LOLH = 0004 hoursyear and a corresponding EUE equal to 2059 MWh for the year 2020 The Forecast 5050 Peak Demand for 2020 was lower than reported in the previous study with lower estimated Forecast Reserve Margins resulting in decreased EUE for 2020

31 MWh of EUE per Million MWh of Annual Load Energy 32 See httpswwwnpccorgLibraryResource20Adequacy201620NERC20RAS20Probabilistic20Assessment20NPCC20Region20(February207202017)pdf 33 MWh of EUE per Million MWh of Annual Load Energy 34See httpswwwnpccorgLibraryResource20Adequacy201620NERC20RAS20Probabilistic20Assessment20NPCC20Region20(February207202017)pdf

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 40 Final Report

Table 10(c) - Ontario 2016 assessment comparison for the year 2020

Year

Net Energy for Load (GWh)

Forecast 5050 Peak

Demand (MW)

Forecast Capacity

Resources (MW)

Forecast Operable Capacity

Resources (MW)

Expected Unsupplied

Energy (EUE) (MWh)

Loss of Load Hours

(LOLH) (hoursyr)

Forecast Planning Reserve Margin

()

Forecast Operable Reserve

Margin () 2020 133409 22192 27478 24161 0000 0000 273 119 2020 133033 22085 25968 24413 0000 0000 176 105

Results from the 2016 Probabilistic Assessment

The previous study NERC RAS Long-Term Reliability Assessment ndash NPCC Region 35 estimated an annual LOLH = 00 hoursyear and a corresponding EUE equal to 00 for the year 2020 The 2020 Forecast 5050 Peak Demand Forecast is relatively flat in this assessment than reported in the previous assessment Forecast Capacity Resources has increased 36 No material difference in estimated LOLH and EUE is observed between the two assessments

Table 10(d) - Quebec 2016 assessment comparison for the year 2020

Year

Net Energy for Load (GWh)

Forecast 5050 Peak

Demand (MW)

Forecast Capacity

Resources (MW)

Forecast Operable Capacity

Resources (MW)

Expected Unsupplied

Energy (EUE) (MWh)

Loss of Load Hours

(LOLH) (hoursyr)

Forecast Planning Reserve Margin

()

Forecast Operable Reserve Margin

() 2020 187473 38875 42348 41760 0000 0000 158 142 2020 192928 39057 41885 41184 0000 0000 114 95

Results from the 2016 Probabilistic Assessment

The previous study NERC RAS Long-Term Reliability Assessment ndash NPCC Region 37 estimated an annual LOLH = 00 hoursyear and a corresponding EUE equal to 00 for the year 2020 The Forecast 5050 Peak Demand for 2020 was slightly higher than reported in the previous study with lower estimated Forecast Planning and Forecast Operable Reserve Margins There was no change in the estimated LOLH and EUE in this yearrsquos study 35 See httpswwwnpccorgLibraryResource20Adequacy201620NERC20RAS20Probabilistic20Assessment20NPCC20Region20(February207202017)pdf 36 Assuming the same basis as the previous study 4946 MW of wind resource capacity reported to NPCC results in a Forecast Planning Reserve Margin of 369 37 See httpswwwnpccorgLibraryResource20Adequacy201620NERC20RAS20Probabilistic20Assessment20NPCC20Region20(February207202017)pdf

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 41 Final Report

Table 10(e) - Maritimes 2016 assessment comparison for the year 2020

Year

Net Energy for Load (GWh)

Forecast 5050 Peak

Demand (MW)

Forecast Capacity

Resources (MW)

Forecast Operable Capacity

Resources (MW)

Expected Unsupplied

Energy (EUE) (MWh ndash ppm 38 )

Loss of Load Hours

(LOLH) (hoursyr)

Forecast Planning Reserve Margin

()

Forecast Operable Reserve Margin

() 2020 28153 5627 6661 6324 00 ndash 0000 0000 244 181 2020 27354 5317 6637 6762 00 ndash 0000 0000 248 272

Results from the 2016 Probabilistic Assessment

The previous study NERC RAS Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region 39 estimated an annual LOLH = 00 hoursyear and a corresponding EUE equal to 00 (ppm) for the year 2020 The 2020 Forecast 5050 Peak Demand Forecast is lower in this assessment than reported in the previous assessment the Forecast Capacity Resources declined slightly as compared to the previous assessment No material difference in estimated LOLH and EUE is observed between the two assessments The lower forecast load contributes to this result

38 MWh of EUE per Million MWh of Annual Load Energy 39 See httpswwwnpccorgLibraryResource20Adequacy201620NERC20RAS20Probabilistic20Assessment20NPCC20Region20(February207202017)pdf

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 42 Final Report

APPENDIX A Demand and Capacity ndash Maritimes

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 27354 27168

2019 - 2020 2021 - 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 5317 3202 5257 3165 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 4828 2907 4773 2874 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 5806 3497 5741 3456

Other Demand Factors 0 0 0 0 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response (included in Total Internal Demand) 233 233 233 233

Total Available 233 233 233 233

Net Internal Demand 5317 3202 5257 3165

2019 - 2020 2021 - 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 6768 6620 6791 6629

Coal 1700 1685 1700 1685 Petroleum 1893 1776 1911 1790 Gas 850 832 850 832 Nuclear 660 660 660 660 Hydro 1328 1328 1328 1328 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 148 148 148 148 Wind 190 192 195 187 Solar Other Unknown

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 43 Final Report

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 6893 6586 6884 6483

Coal 1656 1639 1653 1639 Petroleum 1857 1752 1889 1770 Gas 825 808 825 808 Nuclear 645 645 645 645 Hydro 1316 1316 1316 1316 Pumped Storage 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 146 146 146 146 Wind 448 280 410 160 Solar 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 10 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 10 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal 26 27 28 27 Petroleum 19 13 11 11 Gas 29 29 29 29 Nuclear 23 23 23 23 Hydro 08 08 08 08 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 13 13 13 13 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 6893 6586 6884 6483

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 0 0 0 0 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports Firm 131 200 166 166

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 44 Final Report

Expected 0 0 0 0

2019 - 2020 2021 - 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 738 738 738 738

Non-Spinning Reserves 738 738 738 738 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 233 233 233 233 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 233 233 233 233 Voltage Reductions Public Appeals Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 27354 27168 Total Internal Demand (MW) 5317 5257 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 9 + 9 Net Internal Demand (MW) 5317 5257 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 6637 6615 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 6762 6708 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 248 258 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 272 276

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0268213 45267064 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0005389 0508502

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 45 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 29043 31211 Total Internal Demand (MW) 5620 6039 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 9 + 9 Net Internal Demand (MW) 5620 6039 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 6615 6615 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 6708 6708 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0268 45267 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0009 1450 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0005 0509 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 177 95 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 194 111

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 46 Final Report

APPENDIX B Demand and Capacity - New England

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 137934 139828

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 23188 29504 23573 29994 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 19710 26152 20037 26587 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 24076 33331 24476 33884

Other Demand Factors 2865 4207 3526 4973 Energy Efficiency and Conservation 2865 3417 3526 4072 Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation 0 790 0 901 Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 469 420 623 624 Total Available 469 420 623 624

Net Internal Demand 19854 24877 19424 24397

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 33581 31012 33716 31174

Coal 920 917 535 533 Petroleum 6559 6126 6537 6126 Gas 18090 16286 18575 16834 Nuclear 3343 3335 3343 3335 Hydro 1460 1357 1451 1355 Pumped Storage 1785 1752 1851 1752 Geothermal Biomass 1042 990 1042 990 Wind 381 189 381 189 Solar 0 59 0 59 Other 1 1 1 1

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 47 Final Report

Unknown

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 31254 28865 31431 29058 Coal 782 780 455 454 Petroleum 5339 4986 5321 4986 Gas 17249 15535 17713 16056 Nuclear 3312 3305 3312 3305 Hydro 1420 1322 1412 1320 Pumped Storage 1785 1752 1851 1752 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 983 935 983 935 Wind 381 189 381 189 Solar 0 59 0 59 Other 1 1 1 1 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 0 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal 149 150 149 150 Petroleum 186 186 186 186 Gas 46 46 46 46 Nuclear 09 09 09 09 Hydro 27 26 27 26 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 56 55 56 55 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar 00 00 00 00 Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 31254 28865 31431 29058

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 1070 1265 1174 83 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 48 Final Report

Firm 100 100 100 100 Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1605 1605 1605 1605

Non-Spinning Reserves 1605 1605 1605 1605 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 308 410 298 403 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load Voltage Reductions 308 410 298 403 Public Appeals Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 12526491 2712646 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0026604 0006785

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 137934 139828 Total Internal Demand (MW) 29504 29994 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 13 + 13 Net Internal Demand (MW) 24877 24397 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 32177 31157 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 30030 29041 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 12526 2713 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0091 0019 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0027 0007 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 293 277 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 207 190

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 352259769 5074358166

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 49 Final Report

Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0336001 3355413

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 150698 163451 Total Internal Demand (MW) 32326 35061 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 13 + 13 Net Internal Demand (MW) 26729 29464 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 31157 31157 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 29041 29041 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 352260 5074358 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 2338 31045 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0336 3355 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 166 57 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 87 -14

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 50 Final Report

APPENDIX C Demand and Capacity - New York

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 155567 153898

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 24135 32629 23817 32339 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 22726 30002 22425 29737 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 25742 34454 25401 34148

Other Demand Factors (Included in Total Internal Demand) 585 1738 1133 2388 Energy Efficiency and Conservation 385 775 842 1238 Behind the Meter Generation 0 689 0 843 Distributed Generation 200 274 291 307 Standby Load Under Contract 0 0 0 0

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 637 871 637 871 Total 930 1237 930 1237 Available 637 871 637 871

Net Internal Demand 23498 31759 23180 31469

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 42547 41528 40491 40491

Coal 978 978 978 978 Petroleum 9180 9180 9180 9180 Gas 18163 18163 18163 18163 Nuclear 5769 4750 3713 3713 Hydro 3970 3970 3970 3970 Pumped Storage 1400 1400 1400 1400 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 379 379 379 379 Wind 1739 1739 1739 1739 Solar 32 32 32 32 Other (ROR) 938 938 938 938 Unknown 0 0 0 0

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 51 Final Report

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 40188 37635 39321 36616

Coal 1001 979 1001 979 Petroleum 9203 8465 9203 8465 Gas 18337 17826 19469 17826 Nuclear 5425 4401 3361 3364 Hydro 3284 3313 3284 3313 Pumped Storage 1410 1409 1410 1409 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 329 331 352 350 Wind 632 394 674 394 Solar 1 27 1 27 Other (Run of River) 567 490 567 490 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 0 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal 141 141 141 141 Petroleum 166 166 166 166 Gas 58 58 58 58 Nuclear 31 24 26 26 Hydro 10 10 10 10 Pumped Storage 41 41 41 41 Geothermal 00 00 00 00 Biomass 45 45 45 45 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar 00 00 00 00 Other 00 00 00 00 Unknown 00 00 00 00

Operable Capacity Resources 37184 34843 36328 33843

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 700 1785 1219 1942 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports Firm 0 0 0 0

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 52 Final Report

Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1965 1965 1965 1965

Non-Spinning Reserves 1310 1310 1310 1310 Spinning Reserves 655 655 655 655 Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 491 597 491 597 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load Voltage Reductions 410 516 410 516 Public Appeals 81 81 81 81 Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0073008 0031946 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000700 0000268

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 155567 153898 Total Internal Demand (MW) 32629 32339 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 6 + 6 Net Internal Demand (MW) 31759 31469 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 39419 38558 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 36628 35786 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0073 0032 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0001 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 241 225 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 153 137

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 60708462 4997912227 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0191308 7445002

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 53 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 166111 180493 Total Internal Demand (MW) 34905 37928 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 6 + 6 Net Internal Demand (MW) 34035 37057 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 38558 38558 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 35786 35786 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 60708 4997912 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0365 27690 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0191 7445 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 133 41 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 51 -34

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 54 Final Report

Appendix D Demand and Capacity ndash Ontario

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 133033 132435

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 21315 22085 21163 22098 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 20129 19936 19985 19948 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 22239 24472 22080 24486

Other Demand Factors 0 0 0 0 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 0 0 0 0 Total Available

Net Internal Demand 21315 22085 21163 22098

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 29836 27509 28010 26631

Coal Petroleum 2107 2107 2107 2107 Gas 8031 7267 8031 7267 Nuclear 11289 11235 9381 10357 Hydro 6300 5888 6322 5888 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 300 300 300 300 Wind 1809 673 1807 673 Solar 0 39 0 39 Other

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 55 Final Report

Unknown

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 28228 25954 26533 25134 Coal 0 0 0 0 Petroleum 2107 2107 2107 2107 Gas 7223 6510 7223 6510 Nuclear 10496 10444 8719 9624 Hydro 6300 5888 6322 5888 Pumped Storage 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 293 293 293 293 Wind 1809 673 1870 673 Solar 0 39 0 39 Other 0 0 0 0 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 246 1041 0 0 Scheduled Outages 246 1041 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal Petroleum Gas 101 104 101 104 Nuclear 70 70 71 71 Hydro 00 00 00 00 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 23 23 23 23 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 28228 25954 26533 25134

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 0 0 0 0 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 56 Final Report

Firm 0 500 0 500 Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1418 1418 1418 1418

Non-Spinning Reserves 1418 1418 1418 1418 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 1498 1262 1493 1262 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 795 533 795 533 Voltage Reductions 490 508 487 508 Public Appeals 213 221 212 221 Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 133033 132435 Total Internal Demand (MW) 22085 22098 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 11 + 11 Net Internal Demand (MW) 22085 22098 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 25968 26131 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 24413 24634 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 176 182 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 105 115

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 2556963 559120090

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 57 Final Report

Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0008545 1150387

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 141238 151328 Total Internal Demand (MW) 23567 25251 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 11 + 11 Net Internal Demand (MW) 23567 25251 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 26131 26131 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 24634 24634 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 2557 559120 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0018 3695 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0009 1150 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 109 204 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 45 -24

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 58 Final Report

Appendix E Demand and Capacity - Quebec

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 192928 189157

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 39057 21227 39737 21556 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 35659 19953 36001 20133 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 42733 22641 43778 23134

Other Demand Factors 0 0 0 0 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 1460 0 1544 0 Total Available 1460 1544

Net Internal Demand 37597 21227 38193 21556

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 42101 34901 42443 35197

Coal Petroleum 436 272 436 272 Gas Nuclear Hydro 40173 34233 40458 34519 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 352 397 403 406 Wind 1140 0 1146 0 Solar Other Unknown

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 59 Final Report

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 41400 34321 41733 34607

Coal 0 0 0 0 Petroleum 408 255 408 254 Gas 0 0 0 0 Nuclear 0 0 0 0 Hydro 39522 33695 39803 33973 Pumped Storage 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 330 371 377 380 Wind 1140 0 1146 0 Solar 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 0 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal Petroleum 64 64 65 65 Gas Nuclear Hydro 16 16 16 16 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 64 64 65 65 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 41400 34321 41733 34607

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 500 0 500 0 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports Firm 716 2036 1316 1110

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 60 Final Report

Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1250 1250 1250 1250

Non-Spinning Reserves 1250 1250 1250 1250 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 250 250 250 250 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 0 0 0 0 Voltage Reductions 250 250 250 250 Public Appeals Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 192928 189157 Total Internal Demand (MW) 39057 39737 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 9 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 37597 38193 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41885 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 41184 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 114 90 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 95 71

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004482 1079363992 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0071871 1368365

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 61 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 196519 204518 Total Internal Demand (MW) 41283 42964 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 10 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 39739 41420 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41627 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 40917 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004 1079364 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0081 5278 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0072 1368 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 48 05 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 30 -12

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 62 Final Report

Appendix F Definitions

Net Energy for Load (GWh) Energy Modeled (Input) Total Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load (Input)

Demand-Side Management ndash Available Sum of DCLM Interruptible Load CPP Load as Cap (from Form A) (Not probabilistic data)

Net Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load - Demand-Side Management ndash Available Capacity Expected on Peak Sum of capacity by type modeled in probabilistic (Input) Net Firm ImportExports Input Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) Capacity Expected on Peak + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Weighted average forced outage Input based on weighted EFOR by Area Operable Capacity Resources Sum of capacity expected on peak weighted average forced outage rate by type Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) Operable Capacity Resources + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) Result (Input) Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) Result (Input) Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () Forecast Capacity ResourcesNet Internal Demand ndash 1 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () Forecast Operable Capacity Resources Net Internal Demand ndash 1

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 63 Final Report

Appendix G Monthly Results

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0281 0011 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0011 0003 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0022 0006 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0062 0020 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 1184 0066 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0093 0038 0002 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0013 0005 0001 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0014 0004 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 64 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0020 0008 0004 0004 0001 0016 0007 0001 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0126 0061 0036 0035 0008 0177 0081 0011 0004 0003 0000 Aug 20 0000 0170 0100 0066 0066 0018 0084 0039 0009 0004 0003 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0039 0017 0009 0009 0001 0099 0046 0008 0002 0001 0000 Jul 22 0000 0053 0015 0006 0006 0001 0191 0066 0010 0002 0001 0000 Aug 22 0000 0109 0053 0029 0029 0005 0143 0042 0008 0002 0001 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 65 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0017 0009 0002 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0094 0013 0001 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0033 0004 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0154 0026 0003 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0133 0025 0004 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 66 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 534 01 00 00 00 00 00 04 01 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 02 00 00 00 Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 26 08 00 00 00

Jan 22 5150 143 07 01 00 00 00 58 20 01 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 04 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 06 02 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 67 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 20 00 131 45 22 22 03

47 14 03 01 00 00

Jul 20 00 1003 397 208 207 34

695 176 28 07 05 00

Aug 20 00 1640 796 459 458 89

366 119 35 11 09 00

Sep 20 00 02 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 22 00 292 100 47 46 05

356 111 21 05 03 00

Jul 22 00 360 75 29 29 03

819 166 22 04 03 00

Aug 22 00 933 361 174 170 19

736 135 24 05 03 00

Sep 22 00 01 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 68 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 20 02 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 412 60 04 00 00 00 Aug 20 168 22 01 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 03 01 00 00 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 810 143 12 01 00 00 Aug 22 872 151 17 01 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 69 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 6800 1193 0659 0419 0082 0072 2452 1384 0608 0093 0004 0004 Feb 13 0276 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0425 0307 0162 0025 0002 0002 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0027 0027 0012 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0198 0198 0077 0004 0000 0000

Jan 23 25577 8034 5143 3763 1417 1367 20970 1390 8337 3131 0373 0370 Feb 23 2206 0401 0188 0098 0001 0001 8255 7122 4599 1179 0125 0125 Mar 23 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0455 0455 0209 0019 0001 0001 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0004 0004 0001 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0145 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 2410 2383 1206 0146 0013 0013

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 70 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0480 0366 0192 0136 0134 0066 1794 1086 0550 0257 0223 0059 Jul 13 1090 0595 0295 0211 0206 0087 3470 1914 0866 0382 0329 0081 Aug 13 1414 1042 0592 0405 0393 0183 2520 1246 0583 0279 0244 0051 Sep 13 0022 0020 0007 0003 0003 0000 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 2158 1914 1449 1232 1223 0686 11327 8482 6147 4024 3772 1983 Jul 23 4880 4228 2975 2345 2232 1011 22882 1640 1132 7462 6937 3328 Aug 23 5764 4995 3535 2966 2831 1607 16530 1132 7842 5252 4936 2134 Sep 23 0326 0226 0119 0091 0090 0052 0321 0075 0029 0013 0012 0001 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 71 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc Jan 13 0184 0078 0031 0014 0004 0003

Feb 13 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 13 0009 0007 0005 0002 0000 0000

May 13 0002 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jul 13 1084 0317 0107 0048 0014 0003

Aug 13 1034 0513 0204 0084 0020 0003

Sep 13 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Oct 13 0009 0006 0004 0002 0000 0000

Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 3359 1851 0990 0513 0222 0162

Feb 23 0173 0066 0015 0003 0000 0000

Mar 23 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 23 0427 0369 0295 0217 0133 0051

May 23 0202 0143 0067 0020 0003 0001

Jun 23 0009 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jul 23 5457 3647 2468 1735 0984 0425

Aug 23 5383 3908 2596 1843 0882 0363

Sep 23 0311 0172 0059 0018 0004 0000

Oct 23 0239 0195 0137 0082 0034 0016

Nov 23 0498 0460 0401 0306 0198 0132

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 72 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 49199 8644 3784 2030 188 160 3125 2058 611 86 02 02 Feb 13 533 01 00 00 00 00 371 245 120 15 01 01 Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 14 14 05 00 00 00 Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 102 102 39 02 00 00

Jan 23 27107 8184 4667 3224 11215 1079 47773 3730 1673 5636 373 363 Feb 23 14134 2090 637 228 03 02 11992 9750 5283 1208 82 81 Mar 23 01 00 00 00 00 00 281 281 122 09 00 00 Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Aug 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 03 03 00 00 00 00 Sep 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Dec 23 216 00 00 00 00 00 1680 1660 809 99 08 08

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 73 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

New England New York CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 13 4808 4409 2517 1799 1786 698 12568 6175 2756 1181 1011 187

Jul 13 10074 7005 3657 2415 2356 701 25985 1037 4083 1629 1362 229

Aug 13 15213 1354 7682 5342 5265 2122 21464 8156 3465 1601 1398 191

Sep 13 124 118 37 16 16 02 14 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 00 00 00 00

Feb 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 23 38630 3769 2652 2079 20729 9602 142999 8982 5704 35408 32707 1305

Jul 23 75805 6813 4354 3217 31753 1353 292936 16983 10283 62175 56818 2079

Aug 23 10065 9661 6862 5405 53336 2715 237645 13435 8290 52673 48853 16148

Sep 23 3087 2801 1678 1221 1212 460 2017 453 153 57 48 02

Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 01 00 00 00

Dec 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 74 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Ontario CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 252 121 40 11 03 02

Feb 13 02 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 03 02 01 00 00 00

May 13 09 05 01 00 00 00

Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jul 13 10319 2982 976 359 75 12

Aug 13 8851 3834 1446 517 85 12

Sep 13 11 02 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 10 06 02 01 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 8279 4839 2027 673 238 154

Feb 23 312 122 25 03 00 00

Mar 23 02 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 272 219 161 91 37 10

May 23 1103 756 334 93 16 06

Jun 23 36 11 02 00 00 00

Jul 23 84551 53152 33941 21124 8344 3101

Aug 23 69062 49778 31530 18895 6344 2266

Sep 23 1940 1081 386 107 18 01

Oct 23 512 348 158 49 12 04

Nov 23 391 336 264 169 92 49

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 43 Final Report

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 6893 6586 6884 6483

Coal 1656 1639 1653 1639 Petroleum 1857 1752 1889 1770 Gas 825 808 825 808 Nuclear 645 645 645 645 Hydro 1316 1316 1316 1316 Pumped Storage 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 146 146 146 146 Wind 448 280 410 160 Solar 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 10 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 10 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal 26 27 28 27 Petroleum 19 13 11 11 Gas 29 29 29 29 Nuclear 23 23 23 23 Hydro 08 08 08 08 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 13 13 13 13 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 6893 6586 6884 6483

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 0 0 0 0 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports Firm 131 200 166 166

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 44 Final Report

Expected 0 0 0 0

2019 - 2020 2021 - 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 738 738 738 738

Non-Spinning Reserves 738 738 738 738 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 233 233 233 233 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 233 233 233 233 Voltage Reductions Public Appeals Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 27354 27168 Total Internal Demand (MW) 5317 5257 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 9 + 9 Net Internal Demand (MW) 5317 5257 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 6637 6615 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 6762 6708 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 248 258 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 272 276

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0268213 45267064 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0005389 0508502

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 45 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 29043 31211 Total Internal Demand (MW) 5620 6039 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 9 + 9 Net Internal Demand (MW) 5620 6039 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 6615 6615 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 6708 6708 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0268 45267 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0009 1450 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0005 0509 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 177 95 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 194 111

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 46 Final Report

APPENDIX B Demand and Capacity - New England

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 137934 139828

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 23188 29504 23573 29994 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 19710 26152 20037 26587 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 24076 33331 24476 33884

Other Demand Factors 2865 4207 3526 4973 Energy Efficiency and Conservation 2865 3417 3526 4072 Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation 0 790 0 901 Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 469 420 623 624 Total Available 469 420 623 624

Net Internal Demand 19854 24877 19424 24397

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 33581 31012 33716 31174

Coal 920 917 535 533 Petroleum 6559 6126 6537 6126 Gas 18090 16286 18575 16834 Nuclear 3343 3335 3343 3335 Hydro 1460 1357 1451 1355 Pumped Storage 1785 1752 1851 1752 Geothermal Biomass 1042 990 1042 990 Wind 381 189 381 189 Solar 0 59 0 59 Other 1 1 1 1

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 47 Final Report

Unknown

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 31254 28865 31431 29058 Coal 782 780 455 454 Petroleum 5339 4986 5321 4986 Gas 17249 15535 17713 16056 Nuclear 3312 3305 3312 3305 Hydro 1420 1322 1412 1320 Pumped Storage 1785 1752 1851 1752 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 983 935 983 935 Wind 381 189 381 189 Solar 0 59 0 59 Other 1 1 1 1 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 0 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal 149 150 149 150 Petroleum 186 186 186 186 Gas 46 46 46 46 Nuclear 09 09 09 09 Hydro 27 26 27 26 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 56 55 56 55 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar 00 00 00 00 Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 31254 28865 31431 29058

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 1070 1265 1174 83 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 48 Final Report

Firm 100 100 100 100 Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1605 1605 1605 1605

Non-Spinning Reserves 1605 1605 1605 1605 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 308 410 298 403 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load Voltage Reductions 308 410 298 403 Public Appeals Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 12526491 2712646 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0026604 0006785

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 137934 139828 Total Internal Demand (MW) 29504 29994 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 13 + 13 Net Internal Demand (MW) 24877 24397 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 32177 31157 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 30030 29041 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 12526 2713 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0091 0019 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0027 0007 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 293 277 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 207 190

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 352259769 5074358166

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 49 Final Report

Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0336001 3355413

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 150698 163451 Total Internal Demand (MW) 32326 35061 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 13 + 13 Net Internal Demand (MW) 26729 29464 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 31157 31157 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 29041 29041 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 352260 5074358 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 2338 31045 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0336 3355 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 166 57 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 87 -14

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 50 Final Report

APPENDIX C Demand and Capacity - New York

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 155567 153898

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 24135 32629 23817 32339 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 22726 30002 22425 29737 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 25742 34454 25401 34148

Other Demand Factors (Included in Total Internal Demand) 585 1738 1133 2388 Energy Efficiency and Conservation 385 775 842 1238 Behind the Meter Generation 0 689 0 843 Distributed Generation 200 274 291 307 Standby Load Under Contract 0 0 0 0

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 637 871 637 871 Total 930 1237 930 1237 Available 637 871 637 871

Net Internal Demand 23498 31759 23180 31469

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 42547 41528 40491 40491

Coal 978 978 978 978 Petroleum 9180 9180 9180 9180 Gas 18163 18163 18163 18163 Nuclear 5769 4750 3713 3713 Hydro 3970 3970 3970 3970 Pumped Storage 1400 1400 1400 1400 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 379 379 379 379 Wind 1739 1739 1739 1739 Solar 32 32 32 32 Other (ROR) 938 938 938 938 Unknown 0 0 0 0

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 51 Final Report

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 40188 37635 39321 36616

Coal 1001 979 1001 979 Petroleum 9203 8465 9203 8465 Gas 18337 17826 19469 17826 Nuclear 5425 4401 3361 3364 Hydro 3284 3313 3284 3313 Pumped Storage 1410 1409 1410 1409 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 329 331 352 350 Wind 632 394 674 394 Solar 1 27 1 27 Other (Run of River) 567 490 567 490 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 0 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal 141 141 141 141 Petroleum 166 166 166 166 Gas 58 58 58 58 Nuclear 31 24 26 26 Hydro 10 10 10 10 Pumped Storage 41 41 41 41 Geothermal 00 00 00 00 Biomass 45 45 45 45 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar 00 00 00 00 Other 00 00 00 00 Unknown 00 00 00 00

Operable Capacity Resources 37184 34843 36328 33843

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 700 1785 1219 1942 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports Firm 0 0 0 0

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 52 Final Report

Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1965 1965 1965 1965

Non-Spinning Reserves 1310 1310 1310 1310 Spinning Reserves 655 655 655 655 Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 491 597 491 597 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load Voltage Reductions 410 516 410 516 Public Appeals 81 81 81 81 Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0073008 0031946 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000700 0000268

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 155567 153898 Total Internal Demand (MW) 32629 32339 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 6 + 6 Net Internal Demand (MW) 31759 31469 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 39419 38558 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 36628 35786 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0073 0032 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0001 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 241 225 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 153 137

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 60708462 4997912227 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0191308 7445002

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 53 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 166111 180493 Total Internal Demand (MW) 34905 37928 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 6 + 6 Net Internal Demand (MW) 34035 37057 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 38558 38558 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 35786 35786 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 60708 4997912 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0365 27690 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0191 7445 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 133 41 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 51 -34

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 54 Final Report

Appendix D Demand and Capacity ndash Ontario

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 133033 132435

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 21315 22085 21163 22098 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 20129 19936 19985 19948 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 22239 24472 22080 24486

Other Demand Factors 0 0 0 0 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 0 0 0 0 Total Available

Net Internal Demand 21315 22085 21163 22098

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 29836 27509 28010 26631

Coal Petroleum 2107 2107 2107 2107 Gas 8031 7267 8031 7267 Nuclear 11289 11235 9381 10357 Hydro 6300 5888 6322 5888 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 300 300 300 300 Wind 1809 673 1807 673 Solar 0 39 0 39 Other

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 55 Final Report

Unknown

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 28228 25954 26533 25134 Coal 0 0 0 0 Petroleum 2107 2107 2107 2107 Gas 7223 6510 7223 6510 Nuclear 10496 10444 8719 9624 Hydro 6300 5888 6322 5888 Pumped Storage 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 293 293 293 293 Wind 1809 673 1870 673 Solar 0 39 0 39 Other 0 0 0 0 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 246 1041 0 0 Scheduled Outages 246 1041 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal Petroleum Gas 101 104 101 104 Nuclear 70 70 71 71 Hydro 00 00 00 00 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 23 23 23 23 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 28228 25954 26533 25134

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 0 0 0 0 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 56 Final Report

Firm 0 500 0 500 Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1418 1418 1418 1418

Non-Spinning Reserves 1418 1418 1418 1418 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 1498 1262 1493 1262 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 795 533 795 533 Voltage Reductions 490 508 487 508 Public Appeals 213 221 212 221 Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 133033 132435 Total Internal Demand (MW) 22085 22098 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 11 + 11 Net Internal Demand (MW) 22085 22098 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 25968 26131 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 24413 24634 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 176 182 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 105 115

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 2556963 559120090

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 57 Final Report

Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0008545 1150387

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 141238 151328 Total Internal Demand (MW) 23567 25251 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 11 + 11 Net Internal Demand (MW) 23567 25251 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 26131 26131 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 24634 24634 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 2557 559120 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0018 3695 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0009 1150 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 109 204 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 45 -24

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 58 Final Report

Appendix E Demand and Capacity - Quebec

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 192928 189157

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 39057 21227 39737 21556 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 35659 19953 36001 20133 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 42733 22641 43778 23134

Other Demand Factors 0 0 0 0 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 1460 0 1544 0 Total Available 1460 1544

Net Internal Demand 37597 21227 38193 21556

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 42101 34901 42443 35197

Coal Petroleum 436 272 436 272 Gas Nuclear Hydro 40173 34233 40458 34519 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 352 397 403 406 Wind 1140 0 1146 0 Solar Other Unknown

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 59 Final Report

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 41400 34321 41733 34607

Coal 0 0 0 0 Petroleum 408 255 408 254 Gas 0 0 0 0 Nuclear 0 0 0 0 Hydro 39522 33695 39803 33973 Pumped Storage 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 330 371 377 380 Wind 1140 0 1146 0 Solar 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 0 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal Petroleum 64 64 65 65 Gas Nuclear Hydro 16 16 16 16 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 64 64 65 65 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 41400 34321 41733 34607

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 500 0 500 0 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports Firm 716 2036 1316 1110

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 60 Final Report

Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1250 1250 1250 1250

Non-Spinning Reserves 1250 1250 1250 1250 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 250 250 250 250 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 0 0 0 0 Voltage Reductions 250 250 250 250 Public Appeals Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 192928 189157 Total Internal Demand (MW) 39057 39737 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 9 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 37597 38193 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41885 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 41184 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 114 90 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 95 71

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004482 1079363992 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0071871 1368365

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 61 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 196519 204518 Total Internal Demand (MW) 41283 42964 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 10 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 39739 41420 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41627 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 40917 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004 1079364 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0081 5278 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0072 1368 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 48 05 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 30 -12

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 62 Final Report

Appendix F Definitions

Net Energy for Load (GWh) Energy Modeled (Input) Total Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load (Input)

Demand-Side Management ndash Available Sum of DCLM Interruptible Load CPP Load as Cap (from Form A) (Not probabilistic data)

Net Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load - Demand-Side Management ndash Available Capacity Expected on Peak Sum of capacity by type modeled in probabilistic (Input) Net Firm ImportExports Input Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) Capacity Expected on Peak + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Weighted average forced outage Input based on weighted EFOR by Area Operable Capacity Resources Sum of capacity expected on peak weighted average forced outage rate by type Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) Operable Capacity Resources + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) Result (Input) Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) Result (Input) Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () Forecast Capacity ResourcesNet Internal Demand ndash 1 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () Forecast Operable Capacity Resources Net Internal Demand ndash 1

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 63 Final Report

Appendix G Monthly Results

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0281 0011 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0011 0003 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0022 0006 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0062 0020 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 1184 0066 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0093 0038 0002 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0013 0005 0001 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0014 0004 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 64 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0020 0008 0004 0004 0001 0016 0007 0001 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0126 0061 0036 0035 0008 0177 0081 0011 0004 0003 0000 Aug 20 0000 0170 0100 0066 0066 0018 0084 0039 0009 0004 0003 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0039 0017 0009 0009 0001 0099 0046 0008 0002 0001 0000 Jul 22 0000 0053 0015 0006 0006 0001 0191 0066 0010 0002 0001 0000 Aug 22 0000 0109 0053 0029 0029 0005 0143 0042 0008 0002 0001 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 65 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0017 0009 0002 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0094 0013 0001 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0033 0004 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0154 0026 0003 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0133 0025 0004 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 66 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 534 01 00 00 00 00 00 04 01 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 02 00 00 00 Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 26 08 00 00 00

Jan 22 5150 143 07 01 00 00 00 58 20 01 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 04 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 06 02 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 67 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 20 00 131 45 22 22 03

47 14 03 01 00 00

Jul 20 00 1003 397 208 207 34

695 176 28 07 05 00

Aug 20 00 1640 796 459 458 89

366 119 35 11 09 00

Sep 20 00 02 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 22 00 292 100 47 46 05

356 111 21 05 03 00

Jul 22 00 360 75 29 29 03

819 166 22 04 03 00

Aug 22 00 933 361 174 170 19

736 135 24 05 03 00

Sep 22 00 01 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 68 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 20 02 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 412 60 04 00 00 00 Aug 20 168 22 01 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 03 01 00 00 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 810 143 12 01 00 00 Aug 22 872 151 17 01 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 69 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 6800 1193 0659 0419 0082 0072 2452 1384 0608 0093 0004 0004 Feb 13 0276 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0425 0307 0162 0025 0002 0002 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0027 0027 0012 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0198 0198 0077 0004 0000 0000

Jan 23 25577 8034 5143 3763 1417 1367 20970 1390 8337 3131 0373 0370 Feb 23 2206 0401 0188 0098 0001 0001 8255 7122 4599 1179 0125 0125 Mar 23 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0455 0455 0209 0019 0001 0001 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0004 0004 0001 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0145 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 2410 2383 1206 0146 0013 0013

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 70 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0480 0366 0192 0136 0134 0066 1794 1086 0550 0257 0223 0059 Jul 13 1090 0595 0295 0211 0206 0087 3470 1914 0866 0382 0329 0081 Aug 13 1414 1042 0592 0405 0393 0183 2520 1246 0583 0279 0244 0051 Sep 13 0022 0020 0007 0003 0003 0000 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 2158 1914 1449 1232 1223 0686 11327 8482 6147 4024 3772 1983 Jul 23 4880 4228 2975 2345 2232 1011 22882 1640 1132 7462 6937 3328 Aug 23 5764 4995 3535 2966 2831 1607 16530 1132 7842 5252 4936 2134 Sep 23 0326 0226 0119 0091 0090 0052 0321 0075 0029 0013 0012 0001 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 71 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc Jan 13 0184 0078 0031 0014 0004 0003

Feb 13 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 13 0009 0007 0005 0002 0000 0000

May 13 0002 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jul 13 1084 0317 0107 0048 0014 0003

Aug 13 1034 0513 0204 0084 0020 0003

Sep 13 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Oct 13 0009 0006 0004 0002 0000 0000

Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 3359 1851 0990 0513 0222 0162

Feb 23 0173 0066 0015 0003 0000 0000

Mar 23 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 23 0427 0369 0295 0217 0133 0051

May 23 0202 0143 0067 0020 0003 0001

Jun 23 0009 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jul 23 5457 3647 2468 1735 0984 0425

Aug 23 5383 3908 2596 1843 0882 0363

Sep 23 0311 0172 0059 0018 0004 0000

Oct 23 0239 0195 0137 0082 0034 0016

Nov 23 0498 0460 0401 0306 0198 0132

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 72 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 49199 8644 3784 2030 188 160 3125 2058 611 86 02 02 Feb 13 533 01 00 00 00 00 371 245 120 15 01 01 Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 14 14 05 00 00 00 Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 102 102 39 02 00 00

Jan 23 27107 8184 4667 3224 11215 1079 47773 3730 1673 5636 373 363 Feb 23 14134 2090 637 228 03 02 11992 9750 5283 1208 82 81 Mar 23 01 00 00 00 00 00 281 281 122 09 00 00 Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Aug 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 03 03 00 00 00 00 Sep 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Dec 23 216 00 00 00 00 00 1680 1660 809 99 08 08

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 73 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

New England New York CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 13 4808 4409 2517 1799 1786 698 12568 6175 2756 1181 1011 187

Jul 13 10074 7005 3657 2415 2356 701 25985 1037 4083 1629 1362 229

Aug 13 15213 1354 7682 5342 5265 2122 21464 8156 3465 1601 1398 191

Sep 13 124 118 37 16 16 02 14 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 00 00 00 00

Feb 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 23 38630 3769 2652 2079 20729 9602 142999 8982 5704 35408 32707 1305

Jul 23 75805 6813 4354 3217 31753 1353 292936 16983 10283 62175 56818 2079

Aug 23 10065 9661 6862 5405 53336 2715 237645 13435 8290 52673 48853 16148

Sep 23 3087 2801 1678 1221 1212 460 2017 453 153 57 48 02

Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 01 00 00 00

Dec 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 74 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Ontario CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 252 121 40 11 03 02

Feb 13 02 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 03 02 01 00 00 00

May 13 09 05 01 00 00 00

Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jul 13 10319 2982 976 359 75 12

Aug 13 8851 3834 1446 517 85 12

Sep 13 11 02 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 10 06 02 01 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 8279 4839 2027 673 238 154

Feb 23 312 122 25 03 00 00

Mar 23 02 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 272 219 161 91 37 10

May 23 1103 756 334 93 16 06

Jun 23 36 11 02 00 00 00

Jul 23 84551 53152 33941 21124 8344 3101

Aug 23 69062 49778 31530 18895 6344 2266

Sep 23 1940 1081 386 107 18 01

Oct 23 512 348 158 49 12 04

Nov 23 391 336 264 169 92 49

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 44 Final Report

Expected 0 0 0 0

2019 - 2020 2021 - 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 738 738 738 738

Non-Spinning Reserves 738 738 738 738 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 233 233 233 233 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 233 233 233 233 Voltage Reductions Public Appeals Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 27354 27168 Total Internal Demand (MW) 5317 5257 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 9 + 9 Net Internal Demand (MW) 5317 5257 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 6637 6615 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 6762 6708 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 248 258 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 272 276

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0268213 45267064 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0005389 0508502

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 45 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 29043 31211 Total Internal Demand (MW) 5620 6039 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 9 + 9 Net Internal Demand (MW) 5620 6039 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 6615 6615 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 6708 6708 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0268 45267 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0009 1450 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0005 0509 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 177 95 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 194 111

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 46 Final Report

APPENDIX B Demand and Capacity - New England

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 137934 139828

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 23188 29504 23573 29994 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 19710 26152 20037 26587 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 24076 33331 24476 33884

Other Demand Factors 2865 4207 3526 4973 Energy Efficiency and Conservation 2865 3417 3526 4072 Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation 0 790 0 901 Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 469 420 623 624 Total Available 469 420 623 624

Net Internal Demand 19854 24877 19424 24397

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 33581 31012 33716 31174

Coal 920 917 535 533 Petroleum 6559 6126 6537 6126 Gas 18090 16286 18575 16834 Nuclear 3343 3335 3343 3335 Hydro 1460 1357 1451 1355 Pumped Storage 1785 1752 1851 1752 Geothermal Biomass 1042 990 1042 990 Wind 381 189 381 189 Solar 0 59 0 59 Other 1 1 1 1

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 47 Final Report

Unknown

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 31254 28865 31431 29058 Coal 782 780 455 454 Petroleum 5339 4986 5321 4986 Gas 17249 15535 17713 16056 Nuclear 3312 3305 3312 3305 Hydro 1420 1322 1412 1320 Pumped Storage 1785 1752 1851 1752 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 983 935 983 935 Wind 381 189 381 189 Solar 0 59 0 59 Other 1 1 1 1 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 0 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal 149 150 149 150 Petroleum 186 186 186 186 Gas 46 46 46 46 Nuclear 09 09 09 09 Hydro 27 26 27 26 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 56 55 56 55 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar 00 00 00 00 Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 31254 28865 31431 29058

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 1070 1265 1174 83 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 48 Final Report

Firm 100 100 100 100 Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1605 1605 1605 1605

Non-Spinning Reserves 1605 1605 1605 1605 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 308 410 298 403 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load Voltage Reductions 308 410 298 403 Public Appeals Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 12526491 2712646 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0026604 0006785

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 137934 139828 Total Internal Demand (MW) 29504 29994 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 13 + 13 Net Internal Demand (MW) 24877 24397 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 32177 31157 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 30030 29041 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 12526 2713 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0091 0019 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0027 0007 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 293 277 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 207 190

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 352259769 5074358166

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 49 Final Report

Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0336001 3355413

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 150698 163451 Total Internal Demand (MW) 32326 35061 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 13 + 13 Net Internal Demand (MW) 26729 29464 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 31157 31157 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 29041 29041 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 352260 5074358 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 2338 31045 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0336 3355 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 166 57 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 87 -14

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 50 Final Report

APPENDIX C Demand and Capacity - New York

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 155567 153898

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 24135 32629 23817 32339 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 22726 30002 22425 29737 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 25742 34454 25401 34148

Other Demand Factors (Included in Total Internal Demand) 585 1738 1133 2388 Energy Efficiency and Conservation 385 775 842 1238 Behind the Meter Generation 0 689 0 843 Distributed Generation 200 274 291 307 Standby Load Under Contract 0 0 0 0

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 637 871 637 871 Total 930 1237 930 1237 Available 637 871 637 871

Net Internal Demand 23498 31759 23180 31469

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 42547 41528 40491 40491

Coal 978 978 978 978 Petroleum 9180 9180 9180 9180 Gas 18163 18163 18163 18163 Nuclear 5769 4750 3713 3713 Hydro 3970 3970 3970 3970 Pumped Storage 1400 1400 1400 1400 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 379 379 379 379 Wind 1739 1739 1739 1739 Solar 32 32 32 32 Other (ROR) 938 938 938 938 Unknown 0 0 0 0

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 51 Final Report

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 40188 37635 39321 36616

Coal 1001 979 1001 979 Petroleum 9203 8465 9203 8465 Gas 18337 17826 19469 17826 Nuclear 5425 4401 3361 3364 Hydro 3284 3313 3284 3313 Pumped Storage 1410 1409 1410 1409 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 329 331 352 350 Wind 632 394 674 394 Solar 1 27 1 27 Other (Run of River) 567 490 567 490 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 0 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal 141 141 141 141 Petroleum 166 166 166 166 Gas 58 58 58 58 Nuclear 31 24 26 26 Hydro 10 10 10 10 Pumped Storage 41 41 41 41 Geothermal 00 00 00 00 Biomass 45 45 45 45 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar 00 00 00 00 Other 00 00 00 00 Unknown 00 00 00 00

Operable Capacity Resources 37184 34843 36328 33843

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 700 1785 1219 1942 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports Firm 0 0 0 0

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 52 Final Report

Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1965 1965 1965 1965

Non-Spinning Reserves 1310 1310 1310 1310 Spinning Reserves 655 655 655 655 Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 491 597 491 597 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load Voltage Reductions 410 516 410 516 Public Appeals 81 81 81 81 Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0073008 0031946 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000700 0000268

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 155567 153898 Total Internal Demand (MW) 32629 32339 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 6 + 6 Net Internal Demand (MW) 31759 31469 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 39419 38558 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 36628 35786 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0073 0032 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0001 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 241 225 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 153 137

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 60708462 4997912227 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0191308 7445002

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 53 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 166111 180493 Total Internal Demand (MW) 34905 37928 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 6 + 6 Net Internal Demand (MW) 34035 37057 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 38558 38558 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 35786 35786 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 60708 4997912 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0365 27690 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0191 7445 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 133 41 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 51 -34

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 54 Final Report

Appendix D Demand and Capacity ndash Ontario

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 133033 132435

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 21315 22085 21163 22098 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 20129 19936 19985 19948 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 22239 24472 22080 24486

Other Demand Factors 0 0 0 0 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 0 0 0 0 Total Available

Net Internal Demand 21315 22085 21163 22098

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 29836 27509 28010 26631

Coal Petroleum 2107 2107 2107 2107 Gas 8031 7267 8031 7267 Nuclear 11289 11235 9381 10357 Hydro 6300 5888 6322 5888 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 300 300 300 300 Wind 1809 673 1807 673 Solar 0 39 0 39 Other

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 55 Final Report

Unknown

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 28228 25954 26533 25134 Coal 0 0 0 0 Petroleum 2107 2107 2107 2107 Gas 7223 6510 7223 6510 Nuclear 10496 10444 8719 9624 Hydro 6300 5888 6322 5888 Pumped Storage 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 293 293 293 293 Wind 1809 673 1870 673 Solar 0 39 0 39 Other 0 0 0 0 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 246 1041 0 0 Scheduled Outages 246 1041 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal Petroleum Gas 101 104 101 104 Nuclear 70 70 71 71 Hydro 00 00 00 00 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 23 23 23 23 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 28228 25954 26533 25134

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 0 0 0 0 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 56 Final Report

Firm 0 500 0 500 Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1418 1418 1418 1418

Non-Spinning Reserves 1418 1418 1418 1418 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 1498 1262 1493 1262 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 795 533 795 533 Voltage Reductions 490 508 487 508 Public Appeals 213 221 212 221 Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 133033 132435 Total Internal Demand (MW) 22085 22098 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 11 + 11 Net Internal Demand (MW) 22085 22098 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 25968 26131 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 24413 24634 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 176 182 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 105 115

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 2556963 559120090

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 57 Final Report

Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0008545 1150387

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 141238 151328 Total Internal Demand (MW) 23567 25251 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 11 + 11 Net Internal Demand (MW) 23567 25251 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 26131 26131 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 24634 24634 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 2557 559120 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0018 3695 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0009 1150 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 109 204 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 45 -24

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 58 Final Report

Appendix E Demand and Capacity - Quebec

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 192928 189157

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 39057 21227 39737 21556 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 35659 19953 36001 20133 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 42733 22641 43778 23134

Other Demand Factors 0 0 0 0 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 1460 0 1544 0 Total Available 1460 1544

Net Internal Demand 37597 21227 38193 21556

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 42101 34901 42443 35197

Coal Petroleum 436 272 436 272 Gas Nuclear Hydro 40173 34233 40458 34519 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 352 397 403 406 Wind 1140 0 1146 0 Solar Other Unknown

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 59 Final Report

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 41400 34321 41733 34607

Coal 0 0 0 0 Petroleum 408 255 408 254 Gas 0 0 0 0 Nuclear 0 0 0 0 Hydro 39522 33695 39803 33973 Pumped Storage 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 330 371 377 380 Wind 1140 0 1146 0 Solar 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 0 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal Petroleum 64 64 65 65 Gas Nuclear Hydro 16 16 16 16 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 64 64 65 65 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 41400 34321 41733 34607

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 500 0 500 0 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports Firm 716 2036 1316 1110

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 60 Final Report

Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1250 1250 1250 1250

Non-Spinning Reserves 1250 1250 1250 1250 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 250 250 250 250 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 0 0 0 0 Voltage Reductions 250 250 250 250 Public Appeals Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 192928 189157 Total Internal Demand (MW) 39057 39737 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 9 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 37597 38193 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41885 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 41184 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 114 90 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 95 71

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004482 1079363992 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0071871 1368365

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 61 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 196519 204518 Total Internal Demand (MW) 41283 42964 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 10 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 39739 41420 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41627 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 40917 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004 1079364 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0081 5278 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0072 1368 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 48 05 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 30 -12

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 62 Final Report

Appendix F Definitions

Net Energy for Load (GWh) Energy Modeled (Input) Total Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load (Input)

Demand-Side Management ndash Available Sum of DCLM Interruptible Load CPP Load as Cap (from Form A) (Not probabilistic data)

Net Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load - Demand-Side Management ndash Available Capacity Expected on Peak Sum of capacity by type modeled in probabilistic (Input) Net Firm ImportExports Input Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) Capacity Expected on Peak + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Weighted average forced outage Input based on weighted EFOR by Area Operable Capacity Resources Sum of capacity expected on peak weighted average forced outage rate by type Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) Operable Capacity Resources + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) Result (Input) Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) Result (Input) Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () Forecast Capacity ResourcesNet Internal Demand ndash 1 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () Forecast Operable Capacity Resources Net Internal Demand ndash 1

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 63 Final Report

Appendix G Monthly Results

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0281 0011 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0011 0003 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0022 0006 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0062 0020 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 1184 0066 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0093 0038 0002 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0013 0005 0001 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0014 0004 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 64 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0020 0008 0004 0004 0001 0016 0007 0001 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0126 0061 0036 0035 0008 0177 0081 0011 0004 0003 0000 Aug 20 0000 0170 0100 0066 0066 0018 0084 0039 0009 0004 0003 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0039 0017 0009 0009 0001 0099 0046 0008 0002 0001 0000 Jul 22 0000 0053 0015 0006 0006 0001 0191 0066 0010 0002 0001 0000 Aug 22 0000 0109 0053 0029 0029 0005 0143 0042 0008 0002 0001 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 65 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0017 0009 0002 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0094 0013 0001 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0033 0004 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0154 0026 0003 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0133 0025 0004 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 66 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 534 01 00 00 00 00 00 04 01 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 02 00 00 00 Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 26 08 00 00 00

Jan 22 5150 143 07 01 00 00 00 58 20 01 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 04 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 06 02 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 67 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 20 00 131 45 22 22 03

47 14 03 01 00 00

Jul 20 00 1003 397 208 207 34

695 176 28 07 05 00

Aug 20 00 1640 796 459 458 89

366 119 35 11 09 00

Sep 20 00 02 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 22 00 292 100 47 46 05

356 111 21 05 03 00

Jul 22 00 360 75 29 29 03

819 166 22 04 03 00

Aug 22 00 933 361 174 170 19

736 135 24 05 03 00

Sep 22 00 01 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 68 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 20 02 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 412 60 04 00 00 00 Aug 20 168 22 01 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 03 01 00 00 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 810 143 12 01 00 00 Aug 22 872 151 17 01 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 69 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 6800 1193 0659 0419 0082 0072 2452 1384 0608 0093 0004 0004 Feb 13 0276 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0425 0307 0162 0025 0002 0002 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0027 0027 0012 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0198 0198 0077 0004 0000 0000

Jan 23 25577 8034 5143 3763 1417 1367 20970 1390 8337 3131 0373 0370 Feb 23 2206 0401 0188 0098 0001 0001 8255 7122 4599 1179 0125 0125 Mar 23 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0455 0455 0209 0019 0001 0001 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0004 0004 0001 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0145 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 2410 2383 1206 0146 0013 0013

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 70 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0480 0366 0192 0136 0134 0066 1794 1086 0550 0257 0223 0059 Jul 13 1090 0595 0295 0211 0206 0087 3470 1914 0866 0382 0329 0081 Aug 13 1414 1042 0592 0405 0393 0183 2520 1246 0583 0279 0244 0051 Sep 13 0022 0020 0007 0003 0003 0000 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 2158 1914 1449 1232 1223 0686 11327 8482 6147 4024 3772 1983 Jul 23 4880 4228 2975 2345 2232 1011 22882 1640 1132 7462 6937 3328 Aug 23 5764 4995 3535 2966 2831 1607 16530 1132 7842 5252 4936 2134 Sep 23 0326 0226 0119 0091 0090 0052 0321 0075 0029 0013 0012 0001 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 71 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc Jan 13 0184 0078 0031 0014 0004 0003

Feb 13 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 13 0009 0007 0005 0002 0000 0000

May 13 0002 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jul 13 1084 0317 0107 0048 0014 0003

Aug 13 1034 0513 0204 0084 0020 0003

Sep 13 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Oct 13 0009 0006 0004 0002 0000 0000

Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 3359 1851 0990 0513 0222 0162

Feb 23 0173 0066 0015 0003 0000 0000

Mar 23 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 23 0427 0369 0295 0217 0133 0051

May 23 0202 0143 0067 0020 0003 0001

Jun 23 0009 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jul 23 5457 3647 2468 1735 0984 0425

Aug 23 5383 3908 2596 1843 0882 0363

Sep 23 0311 0172 0059 0018 0004 0000

Oct 23 0239 0195 0137 0082 0034 0016

Nov 23 0498 0460 0401 0306 0198 0132

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 72 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 49199 8644 3784 2030 188 160 3125 2058 611 86 02 02 Feb 13 533 01 00 00 00 00 371 245 120 15 01 01 Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 14 14 05 00 00 00 Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 102 102 39 02 00 00

Jan 23 27107 8184 4667 3224 11215 1079 47773 3730 1673 5636 373 363 Feb 23 14134 2090 637 228 03 02 11992 9750 5283 1208 82 81 Mar 23 01 00 00 00 00 00 281 281 122 09 00 00 Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Aug 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 03 03 00 00 00 00 Sep 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Dec 23 216 00 00 00 00 00 1680 1660 809 99 08 08

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 73 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

New England New York CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 13 4808 4409 2517 1799 1786 698 12568 6175 2756 1181 1011 187

Jul 13 10074 7005 3657 2415 2356 701 25985 1037 4083 1629 1362 229

Aug 13 15213 1354 7682 5342 5265 2122 21464 8156 3465 1601 1398 191

Sep 13 124 118 37 16 16 02 14 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 00 00 00 00

Feb 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 23 38630 3769 2652 2079 20729 9602 142999 8982 5704 35408 32707 1305

Jul 23 75805 6813 4354 3217 31753 1353 292936 16983 10283 62175 56818 2079

Aug 23 10065 9661 6862 5405 53336 2715 237645 13435 8290 52673 48853 16148

Sep 23 3087 2801 1678 1221 1212 460 2017 453 153 57 48 02

Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 01 00 00 00

Dec 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 74 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Ontario CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 252 121 40 11 03 02

Feb 13 02 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 03 02 01 00 00 00

May 13 09 05 01 00 00 00

Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jul 13 10319 2982 976 359 75 12

Aug 13 8851 3834 1446 517 85 12

Sep 13 11 02 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 10 06 02 01 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 8279 4839 2027 673 238 154

Feb 23 312 122 25 03 00 00

Mar 23 02 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 272 219 161 91 37 10

May 23 1103 756 334 93 16 06

Jun 23 36 11 02 00 00 00

Jul 23 84551 53152 33941 21124 8344 3101

Aug 23 69062 49778 31530 18895 6344 2266

Sep 23 1940 1081 386 107 18 01

Oct 23 512 348 158 49 12 04

Nov 23 391 336 264 169 92 49

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 45 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 29043 31211 Total Internal Demand (MW) 5620 6039 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 9 + 9 Net Internal Demand (MW) 5620 6039 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 6615 6615 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 6708 6708 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0268 45267 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0009 1450 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0005 0509 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 177 95 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 194 111

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 46 Final Report

APPENDIX B Demand and Capacity - New England

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 137934 139828

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 23188 29504 23573 29994 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 19710 26152 20037 26587 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 24076 33331 24476 33884

Other Demand Factors 2865 4207 3526 4973 Energy Efficiency and Conservation 2865 3417 3526 4072 Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation 0 790 0 901 Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 469 420 623 624 Total Available 469 420 623 624

Net Internal Demand 19854 24877 19424 24397

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 33581 31012 33716 31174

Coal 920 917 535 533 Petroleum 6559 6126 6537 6126 Gas 18090 16286 18575 16834 Nuclear 3343 3335 3343 3335 Hydro 1460 1357 1451 1355 Pumped Storage 1785 1752 1851 1752 Geothermal Biomass 1042 990 1042 990 Wind 381 189 381 189 Solar 0 59 0 59 Other 1 1 1 1

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 47 Final Report

Unknown

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 31254 28865 31431 29058 Coal 782 780 455 454 Petroleum 5339 4986 5321 4986 Gas 17249 15535 17713 16056 Nuclear 3312 3305 3312 3305 Hydro 1420 1322 1412 1320 Pumped Storage 1785 1752 1851 1752 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 983 935 983 935 Wind 381 189 381 189 Solar 0 59 0 59 Other 1 1 1 1 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 0 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal 149 150 149 150 Petroleum 186 186 186 186 Gas 46 46 46 46 Nuclear 09 09 09 09 Hydro 27 26 27 26 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 56 55 56 55 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar 00 00 00 00 Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 31254 28865 31431 29058

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 1070 1265 1174 83 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 48 Final Report

Firm 100 100 100 100 Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1605 1605 1605 1605

Non-Spinning Reserves 1605 1605 1605 1605 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 308 410 298 403 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load Voltage Reductions 308 410 298 403 Public Appeals Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 12526491 2712646 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0026604 0006785

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 137934 139828 Total Internal Demand (MW) 29504 29994 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 13 + 13 Net Internal Demand (MW) 24877 24397 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 32177 31157 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 30030 29041 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 12526 2713 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0091 0019 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0027 0007 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 293 277 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 207 190

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 352259769 5074358166

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 49 Final Report

Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0336001 3355413

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 150698 163451 Total Internal Demand (MW) 32326 35061 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 13 + 13 Net Internal Demand (MW) 26729 29464 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 31157 31157 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 29041 29041 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 352260 5074358 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 2338 31045 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0336 3355 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 166 57 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 87 -14

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 50 Final Report

APPENDIX C Demand and Capacity - New York

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 155567 153898

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 24135 32629 23817 32339 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 22726 30002 22425 29737 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 25742 34454 25401 34148

Other Demand Factors (Included in Total Internal Demand) 585 1738 1133 2388 Energy Efficiency and Conservation 385 775 842 1238 Behind the Meter Generation 0 689 0 843 Distributed Generation 200 274 291 307 Standby Load Under Contract 0 0 0 0

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 637 871 637 871 Total 930 1237 930 1237 Available 637 871 637 871

Net Internal Demand 23498 31759 23180 31469

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 42547 41528 40491 40491

Coal 978 978 978 978 Petroleum 9180 9180 9180 9180 Gas 18163 18163 18163 18163 Nuclear 5769 4750 3713 3713 Hydro 3970 3970 3970 3970 Pumped Storage 1400 1400 1400 1400 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 379 379 379 379 Wind 1739 1739 1739 1739 Solar 32 32 32 32 Other (ROR) 938 938 938 938 Unknown 0 0 0 0

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 51 Final Report

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 40188 37635 39321 36616

Coal 1001 979 1001 979 Petroleum 9203 8465 9203 8465 Gas 18337 17826 19469 17826 Nuclear 5425 4401 3361 3364 Hydro 3284 3313 3284 3313 Pumped Storage 1410 1409 1410 1409 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 329 331 352 350 Wind 632 394 674 394 Solar 1 27 1 27 Other (Run of River) 567 490 567 490 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 0 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal 141 141 141 141 Petroleum 166 166 166 166 Gas 58 58 58 58 Nuclear 31 24 26 26 Hydro 10 10 10 10 Pumped Storage 41 41 41 41 Geothermal 00 00 00 00 Biomass 45 45 45 45 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar 00 00 00 00 Other 00 00 00 00 Unknown 00 00 00 00

Operable Capacity Resources 37184 34843 36328 33843

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 700 1785 1219 1942 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports Firm 0 0 0 0

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 52 Final Report

Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1965 1965 1965 1965

Non-Spinning Reserves 1310 1310 1310 1310 Spinning Reserves 655 655 655 655 Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 491 597 491 597 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load Voltage Reductions 410 516 410 516 Public Appeals 81 81 81 81 Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0073008 0031946 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000700 0000268

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 155567 153898 Total Internal Demand (MW) 32629 32339 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 6 + 6 Net Internal Demand (MW) 31759 31469 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 39419 38558 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 36628 35786 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0073 0032 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0001 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 241 225 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 153 137

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 60708462 4997912227 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0191308 7445002

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 53 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 166111 180493 Total Internal Demand (MW) 34905 37928 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 6 + 6 Net Internal Demand (MW) 34035 37057 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 38558 38558 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 35786 35786 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 60708 4997912 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0365 27690 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0191 7445 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 133 41 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 51 -34

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 54 Final Report

Appendix D Demand and Capacity ndash Ontario

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 133033 132435

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 21315 22085 21163 22098 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 20129 19936 19985 19948 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 22239 24472 22080 24486

Other Demand Factors 0 0 0 0 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 0 0 0 0 Total Available

Net Internal Demand 21315 22085 21163 22098

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 29836 27509 28010 26631

Coal Petroleum 2107 2107 2107 2107 Gas 8031 7267 8031 7267 Nuclear 11289 11235 9381 10357 Hydro 6300 5888 6322 5888 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 300 300 300 300 Wind 1809 673 1807 673 Solar 0 39 0 39 Other

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 55 Final Report

Unknown

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 28228 25954 26533 25134 Coal 0 0 0 0 Petroleum 2107 2107 2107 2107 Gas 7223 6510 7223 6510 Nuclear 10496 10444 8719 9624 Hydro 6300 5888 6322 5888 Pumped Storage 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 293 293 293 293 Wind 1809 673 1870 673 Solar 0 39 0 39 Other 0 0 0 0 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 246 1041 0 0 Scheduled Outages 246 1041 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal Petroleum Gas 101 104 101 104 Nuclear 70 70 71 71 Hydro 00 00 00 00 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 23 23 23 23 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 28228 25954 26533 25134

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 0 0 0 0 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 56 Final Report

Firm 0 500 0 500 Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1418 1418 1418 1418

Non-Spinning Reserves 1418 1418 1418 1418 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 1498 1262 1493 1262 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 795 533 795 533 Voltage Reductions 490 508 487 508 Public Appeals 213 221 212 221 Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 133033 132435 Total Internal Demand (MW) 22085 22098 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 11 + 11 Net Internal Demand (MW) 22085 22098 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 25968 26131 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 24413 24634 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 176 182 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 105 115

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 2556963 559120090

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 57 Final Report

Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0008545 1150387

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 141238 151328 Total Internal Demand (MW) 23567 25251 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 11 + 11 Net Internal Demand (MW) 23567 25251 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 26131 26131 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 24634 24634 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 2557 559120 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0018 3695 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0009 1150 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 109 204 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 45 -24

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 58 Final Report

Appendix E Demand and Capacity - Quebec

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 192928 189157

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 39057 21227 39737 21556 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 35659 19953 36001 20133 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 42733 22641 43778 23134

Other Demand Factors 0 0 0 0 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 1460 0 1544 0 Total Available 1460 1544

Net Internal Demand 37597 21227 38193 21556

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 42101 34901 42443 35197

Coal Petroleum 436 272 436 272 Gas Nuclear Hydro 40173 34233 40458 34519 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 352 397 403 406 Wind 1140 0 1146 0 Solar Other Unknown

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 59 Final Report

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 41400 34321 41733 34607

Coal 0 0 0 0 Petroleum 408 255 408 254 Gas 0 0 0 0 Nuclear 0 0 0 0 Hydro 39522 33695 39803 33973 Pumped Storage 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 330 371 377 380 Wind 1140 0 1146 0 Solar 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 0 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal Petroleum 64 64 65 65 Gas Nuclear Hydro 16 16 16 16 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 64 64 65 65 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 41400 34321 41733 34607

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 500 0 500 0 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports Firm 716 2036 1316 1110

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 60 Final Report

Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1250 1250 1250 1250

Non-Spinning Reserves 1250 1250 1250 1250 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 250 250 250 250 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 0 0 0 0 Voltage Reductions 250 250 250 250 Public Appeals Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 192928 189157 Total Internal Demand (MW) 39057 39737 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 9 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 37597 38193 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41885 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 41184 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 114 90 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 95 71

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004482 1079363992 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0071871 1368365

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 61 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 196519 204518 Total Internal Demand (MW) 41283 42964 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 10 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 39739 41420 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41627 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 40917 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004 1079364 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0081 5278 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0072 1368 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 48 05 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 30 -12

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 62 Final Report

Appendix F Definitions

Net Energy for Load (GWh) Energy Modeled (Input) Total Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load (Input)

Demand-Side Management ndash Available Sum of DCLM Interruptible Load CPP Load as Cap (from Form A) (Not probabilistic data)

Net Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load - Demand-Side Management ndash Available Capacity Expected on Peak Sum of capacity by type modeled in probabilistic (Input) Net Firm ImportExports Input Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) Capacity Expected on Peak + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Weighted average forced outage Input based on weighted EFOR by Area Operable Capacity Resources Sum of capacity expected on peak weighted average forced outage rate by type Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) Operable Capacity Resources + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) Result (Input) Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) Result (Input) Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () Forecast Capacity ResourcesNet Internal Demand ndash 1 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () Forecast Operable Capacity Resources Net Internal Demand ndash 1

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 63 Final Report

Appendix G Monthly Results

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0281 0011 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0011 0003 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0022 0006 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0062 0020 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 1184 0066 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0093 0038 0002 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0013 0005 0001 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0014 0004 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 64 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0020 0008 0004 0004 0001 0016 0007 0001 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0126 0061 0036 0035 0008 0177 0081 0011 0004 0003 0000 Aug 20 0000 0170 0100 0066 0066 0018 0084 0039 0009 0004 0003 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0039 0017 0009 0009 0001 0099 0046 0008 0002 0001 0000 Jul 22 0000 0053 0015 0006 0006 0001 0191 0066 0010 0002 0001 0000 Aug 22 0000 0109 0053 0029 0029 0005 0143 0042 0008 0002 0001 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 65 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0017 0009 0002 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0094 0013 0001 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0033 0004 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0154 0026 0003 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0133 0025 0004 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 66 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 534 01 00 00 00 00 00 04 01 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 02 00 00 00 Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 26 08 00 00 00

Jan 22 5150 143 07 01 00 00 00 58 20 01 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 04 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 06 02 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 67 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 20 00 131 45 22 22 03

47 14 03 01 00 00

Jul 20 00 1003 397 208 207 34

695 176 28 07 05 00

Aug 20 00 1640 796 459 458 89

366 119 35 11 09 00

Sep 20 00 02 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 22 00 292 100 47 46 05

356 111 21 05 03 00

Jul 22 00 360 75 29 29 03

819 166 22 04 03 00

Aug 22 00 933 361 174 170 19

736 135 24 05 03 00

Sep 22 00 01 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 68 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 20 02 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 412 60 04 00 00 00 Aug 20 168 22 01 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 03 01 00 00 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 810 143 12 01 00 00 Aug 22 872 151 17 01 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 69 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 6800 1193 0659 0419 0082 0072 2452 1384 0608 0093 0004 0004 Feb 13 0276 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0425 0307 0162 0025 0002 0002 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0027 0027 0012 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0198 0198 0077 0004 0000 0000

Jan 23 25577 8034 5143 3763 1417 1367 20970 1390 8337 3131 0373 0370 Feb 23 2206 0401 0188 0098 0001 0001 8255 7122 4599 1179 0125 0125 Mar 23 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0455 0455 0209 0019 0001 0001 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0004 0004 0001 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0145 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 2410 2383 1206 0146 0013 0013

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 70 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0480 0366 0192 0136 0134 0066 1794 1086 0550 0257 0223 0059 Jul 13 1090 0595 0295 0211 0206 0087 3470 1914 0866 0382 0329 0081 Aug 13 1414 1042 0592 0405 0393 0183 2520 1246 0583 0279 0244 0051 Sep 13 0022 0020 0007 0003 0003 0000 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 2158 1914 1449 1232 1223 0686 11327 8482 6147 4024 3772 1983 Jul 23 4880 4228 2975 2345 2232 1011 22882 1640 1132 7462 6937 3328 Aug 23 5764 4995 3535 2966 2831 1607 16530 1132 7842 5252 4936 2134 Sep 23 0326 0226 0119 0091 0090 0052 0321 0075 0029 0013 0012 0001 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 71 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc Jan 13 0184 0078 0031 0014 0004 0003

Feb 13 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 13 0009 0007 0005 0002 0000 0000

May 13 0002 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jul 13 1084 0317 0107 0048 0014 0003

Aug 13 1034 0513 0204 0084 0020 0003

Sep 13 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Oct 13 0009 0006 0004 0002 0000 0000

Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 3359 1851 0990 0513 0222 0162

Feb 23 0173 0066 0015 0003 0000 0000

Mar 23 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 23 0427 0369 0295 0217 0133 0051

May 23 0202 0143 0067 0020 0003 0001

Jun 23 0009 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jul 23 5457 3647 2468 1735 0984 0425

Aug 23 5383 3908 2596 1843 0882 0363

Sep 23 0311 0172 0059 0018 0004 0000

Oct 23 0239 0195 0137 0082 0034 0016

Nov 23 0498 0460 0401 0306 0198 0132

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 72 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 49199 8644 3784 2030 188 160 3125 2058 611 86 02 02 Feb 13 533 01 00 00 00 00 371 245 120 15 01 01 Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 14 14 05 00 00 00 Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 102 102 39 02 00 00

Jan 23 27107 8184 4667 3224 11215 1079 47773 3730 1673 5636 373 363 Feb 23 14134 2090 637 228 03 02 11992 9750 5283 1208 82 81 Mar 23 01 00 00 00 00 00 281 281 122 09 00 00 Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Aug 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 03 03 00 00 00 00 Sep 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Dec 23 216 00 00 00 00 00 1680 1660 809 99 08 08

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 73 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

New England New York CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 13 4808 4409 2517 1799 1786 698 12568 6175 2756 1181 1011 187

Jul 13 10074 7005 3657 2415 2356 701 25985 1037 4083 1629 1362 229

Aug 13 15213 1354 7682 5342 5265 2122 21464 8156 3465 1601 1398 191

Sep 13 124 118 37 16 16 02 14 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 00 00 00 00

Feb 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 23 38630 3769 2652 2079 20729 9602 142999 8982 5704 35408 32707 1305

Jul 23 75805 6813 4354 3217 31753 1353 292936 16983 10283 62175 56818 2079

Aug 23 10065 9661 6862 5405 53336 2715 237645 13435 8290 52673 48853 16148

Sep 23 3087 2801 1678 1221 1212 460 2017 453 153 57 48 02

Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 01 00 00 00

Dec 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 74 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Ontario CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 252 121 40 11 03 02

Feb 13 02 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 03 02 01 00 00 00

May 13 09 05 01 00 00 00

Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jul 13 10319 2982 976 359 75 12

Aug 13 8851 3834 1446 517 85 12

Sep 13 11 02 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 10 06 02 01 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 8279 4839 2027 673 238 154

Feb 23 312 122 25 03 00 00

Mar 23 02 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 272 219 161 91 37 10

May 23 1103 756 334 93 16 06

Jun 23 36 11 02 00 00 00

Jul 23 84551 53152 33941 21124 8344 3101

Aug 23 69062 49778 31530 18895 6344 2266

Sep 23 1940 1081 386 107 18 01

Oct 23 512 348 158 49 12 04

Nov 23 391 336 264 169 92 49

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 46 Final Report

APPENDIX B Demand and Capacity - New England

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 137934 139828

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 23188 29504 23573 29994 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 19710 26152 20037 26587 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 24076 33331 24476 33884

Other Demand Factors 2865 4207 3526 4973 Energy Efficiency and Conservation 2865 3417 3526 4072 Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation 0 790 0 901 Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 469 420 623 624 Total Available 469 420 623 624

Net Internal Demand 19854 24877 19424 24397

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 33581 31012 33716 31174

Coal 920 917 535 533 Petroleum 6559 6126 6537 6126 Gas 18090 16286 18575 16834 Nuclear 3343 3335 3343 3335 Hydro 1460 1357 1451 1355 Pumped Storage 1785 1752 1851 1752 Geothermal Biomass 1042 990 1042 990 Wind 381 189 381 189 Solar 0 59 0 59 Other 1 1 1 1

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 47 Final Report

Unknown

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 31254 28865 31431 29058 Coal 782 780 455 454 Petroleum 5339 4986 5321 4986 Gas 17249 15535 17713 16056 Nuclear 3312 3305 3312 3305 Hydro 1420 1322 1412 1320 Pumped Storage 1785 1752 1851 1752 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 983 935 983 935 Wind 381 189 381 189 Solar 0 59 0 59 Other 1 1 1 1 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 0 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal 149 150 149 150 Petroleum 186 186 186 186 Gas 46 46 46 46 Nuclear 09 09 09 09 Hydro 27 26 27 26 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 56 55 56 55 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar 00 00 00 00 Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 31254 28865 31431 29058

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 1070 1265 1174 83 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 48 Final Report

Firm 100 100 100 100 Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1605 1605 1605 1605

Non-Spinning Reserves 1605 1605 1605 1605 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 308 410 298 403 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load Voltage Reductions 308 410 298 403 Public Appeals Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 12526491 2712646 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0026604 0006785

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 137934 139828 Total Internal Demand (MW) 29504 29994 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 13 + 13 Net Internal Demand (MW) 24877 24397 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 32177 31157 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 30030 29041 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 12526 2713 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0091 0019 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0027 0007 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 293 277 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 207 190

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 352259769 5074358166

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 49 Final Report

Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0336001 3355413

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 150698 163451 Total Internal Demand (MW) 32326 35061 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 13 + 13 Net Internal Demand (MW) 26729 29464 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 31157 31157 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 29041 29041 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 352260 5074358 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 2338 31045 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0336 3355 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 166 57 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 87 -14

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 50 Final Report

APPENDIX C Demand and Capacity - New York

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 155567 153898

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 24135 32629 23817 32339 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 22726 30002 22425 29737 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 25742 34454 25401 34148

Other Demand Factors (Included in Total Internal Demand) 585 1738 1133 2388 Energy Efficiency and Conservation 385 775 842 1238 Behind the Meter Generation 0 689 0 843 Distributed Generation 200 274 291 307 Standby Load Under Contract 0 0 0 0

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 637 871 637 871 Total 930 1237 930 1237 Available 637 871 637 871

Net Internal Demand 23498 31759 23180 31469

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 42547 41528 40491 40491

Coal 978 978 978 978 Petroleum 9180 9180 9180 9180 Gas 18163 18163 18163 18163 Nuclear 5769 4750 3713 3713 Hydro 3970 3970 3970 3970 Pumped Storage 1400 1400 1400 1400 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 379 379 379 379 Wind 1739 1739 1739 1739 Solar 32 32 32 32 Other (ROR) 938 938 938 938 Unknown 0 0 0 0

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 51 Final Report

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 40188 37635 39321 36616

Coal 1001 979 1001 979 Petroleum 9203 8465 9203 8465 Gas 18337 17826 19469 17826 Nuclear 5425 4401 3361 3364 Hydro 3284 3313 3284 3313 Pumped Storage 1410 1409 1410 1409 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 329 331 352 350 Wind 632 394 674 394 Solar 1 27 1 27 Other (Run of River) 567 490 567 490 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 0 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal 141 141 141 141 Petroleum 166 166 166 166 Gas 58 58 58 58 Nuclear 31 24 26 26 Hydro 10 10 10 10 Pumped Storage 41 41 41 41 Geothermal 00 00 00 00 Biomass 45 45 45 45 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar 00 00 00 00 Other 00 00 00 00 Unknown 00 00 00 00

Operable Capacity Resources 37184 34843 36328 33843

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 700 1785 1219 1942 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports Firm 0 0 0 0

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 52 Final Report

Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1965 1965 1965 1965

Non-Spinning Reserves 1310 1310 1310 1310 Spinning Reserves 655 655 655 655 Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 491 597 491 597 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load Voltage Reductions 410 516 410 516 Public Appeals 81 81 81 81 Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0073008 0031946 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000700 0000268

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 155567 153898 Total Internal Demand (MW) 32629 32339 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 6 + 6 Net Internal Demand (MW) 31759 31469 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 39419 38558 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 36628 35786 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0073 0032 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0001 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 241 225 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 153 137

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 60708462 4997912227 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0191308 7445002

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 53 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 166111 180493 Total Internal Demand (MW) 34905 37928 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 6 + 6 Net Internal Demand (MW) 34035 37057 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 38558 38558 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 35786 35786 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 60708 4997912 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0365 27690 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0191 7445 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 133 41 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 51 -34

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 54 Final Report

Appendix D Demand and Capacity ndash Ontario

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 133033 132435

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 21315 22085 21163 22098 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 20129 19936 19985 19948 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 22239 24472 22080 24486

Other Demand Factors 0 0 0 0 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 0 0 0 0 Total Available

Net Internal Demand 21315 22085 21163 22098

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 29836 27509 28010 26631

Coal Petroleum 2107 2107 2107 2107 Gas 8031 7267 8031 7267 Nuclear 11289 11235 9381 10357 Hydro 6300 5888 6322 5888 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 300 300 300 300 Wind 1809 673 1807 673 Solar 0 39 0 39 Other

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 55 Final Report

Unknown

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 28228 25954 26533 25134 Coal 0 0 0 0 Petroleum 2107 2107 2107 2107 Gas 7223 6510 7223 6510 Nuclear 10496 10444 8719 9624 Hydro 6300 5888 6322 5888 Pumped Storage 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 293 293 293 293 Wind 1809 673 1870 673 Solar 0 39 0 39 Other 0 0 0 0 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 246 1041 0 0 Scheduled Outages 246 1041 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal Petroleum Gas 101 104 101 104 Nuclear 70 70 71 71 Hydro 00 00 00 00 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 23 23 23 23 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 28228 25954 26533 25134

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 0 0 0 0 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 56 Final Report

Firm 0 500 0 500 Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1418 1418 1418 1418

Non-Spinning Reserves 1418 1418 1418 1418 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 1498 1262 1493 1262 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 795 533 795 533 Voltage Reductions 490 508 487 508 Public Appeals 213 221 212 221 Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 133033 132435 Total Internal Demand (MW) 22085 22098 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 11 + 11 Net Internal Demand (MW) 22085 22098 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 25968 26131 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 24413 24634 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 176 182 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 105 115

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 2556963 559120090

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 57 Final Report

Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0008545 1150387

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 141238 151328 Total Internal Demand (MW) 23567 25251 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 11 + 11 Net Internal Demand (MW) 23567 25251 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 26131 26131 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 24634 24634 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 2557 559120 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0018 3695 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0009 1150 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 109 204 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 45 -24

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 58 Final Report

Appendix E Demand and Capacity - Quebec

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 192928 189157

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 39057 21227 39737 21556 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 35659 19953 36001 20133 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 42733 22641 43778 23134

Other Demand Factors 0 0 0 0 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 1460 0 1544 0 Total Available 1460 1544

Net Internal Demand 37597 21227 38193 21556

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 42101 34901 42443 35197

Coal Petroleum 436 272 436 272 Gas Nuclear Hydro 40173 34233 40458 34519 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 352 397 403 406 Wind 1140 0 1146 0 Solar Other Unknown

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 59 Final Report

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 41400 34321 41733 34607

Coal 0 0 0 0 Petroleum 408 255 408 254 Gas 0 0 0 0 Nuclear 0 0 0 0 Hydro 39522 33695 39803 33973 Pumped Storage 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 330 371 377 380 Wind 1140 0 1146 0 Solar 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 0 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal Petroleum 64 64 65 65 Gas Nuclear Hydro 16 16 16 16 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 64 64 65 65 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 41400 34321 41733 34607

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 500 0 500 0 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports Firm 716 2036 1316 1110

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 60 Final Report

Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1250 1250 1250 1250

Non-Spinning Reserves 1250 1250 1250 1250 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 250 250 250 250 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 0 0 0 0 Voltage Reductions 250 250 250 250 Public Appeals Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 192928 189157 Total Internal Demand (MW) 39057 39737 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 9 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 37597 38193 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41885 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 41184 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 114 90 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 95 71

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004482 1079363992 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0071871 1368365

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 61 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 196519 204518 Total Internal Demand (MW) 41283 42964 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 10 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 39739 41420 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41627 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 40917 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004 1079364 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0081 5278 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0072 1368 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 48 05 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 30 -12

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 62 Final Report

Appendix F Definitions

Net Energy for Load (GWh) Energy Modeled (Input) Total Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load (Input)

Demand-Side Management ndash Available Sum of DCLM Interruptible Load CPP Load as Cap (from Form A) (Not probabilistic data)

Net Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load - Demand-Side Management ndash Available Capacity Expected on Peak Sum of capacity by type modeled in probabilistic (Input) Net Firm ImportExports Input Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) Capacity Expected on Peak + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Weighted average forced outage Input based on weighted EFOR by Area Operable Capacity Resources Sum of capacity expected on peak weighted average forced outage rate by type Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) Operable Capacity Resources + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) Result (Input) Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) Result (Input) Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () Forecast Capacity ResourcesNet Internal Demand ndash 1 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () Forecast Operable Capacity Resources Net Internal Demand ndash 1

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 63 Final Report

Appendix G Monthly Results

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0281 0011 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0011 0003 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0022 0006 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0062 0020 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 1184 0066 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0093 0038 0002 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0013 0005 0001 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0014 0004 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 64 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0020 0008 0004 0004 0001 0016 0007 0001 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0126 0061 0036 0035 0008 0177 0081 0011 0004 0003 0000 Aug 20 0000 0170 0100 0066 0066 0018 0084 0039 0009 0004 0003 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0039 0017 0009 0009 0001 0099 0046 0008 0002 0001 0000 Jul 22 0000 0053 0015 0006 0006 0001 0191 0066 0010 0002 0001 0000 Aug 22 0000 0109 0053 0029 0029 0005 0143 0042 0008 0002 0001 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 65 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0017 0009 0002 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0094 0013 0001 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0033 0004 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0154 0026 0003 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0133 0025 0004 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 66 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 534 01 00 00 00 00 00 04 01 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 02 00 00 00 Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 26 08 00 00 00

Jan 22 5150 143 07 01 00 00 00 58 20 01 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 04 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 06 02 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 67 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 20 00 131 45 22 22 03

47 14 03 01 00 00

Jul 20 00 1003 397 208 207 34

695 176 28 07 05 00

Aug 20 00 1640 796 459 458 89

366 119 35 11 09 00

Sep 20 00 02 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 22 00 292 100 47 46 05

356 111 21 05 03 00

Jul 22 00 360 75 29 29 03

819 166 22 04 03 00

Aug 22 00 933 361 174 170 19

736 135 24 05 03 00

Sep 22 00 01 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 68 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 20 02 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 412 60 04 00 00 00 Aug 20 168 22 01 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 03 01 00 00 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 810 143 12 01 00 00 Aug 22 872 151 17 01 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 69 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 6800 1193 0659 0419 0082 0072 2452 1384 0608 0093 0004 0004 Feb 13 0276 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0425 0307 0162 0025 0002 0002 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0027 0027 0012 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0198 0198 0077 0004 0000 0000

Jan 23 25577 8034 5143 3763 1417 1367 20970 1390 8337 3131 0373 0370 Feb 23 2206 0401 0188 0098 0001 0001 8255 7122 4599 1179 0125 0125 Mar 23 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0455 0455 0209 0019 0001 0001 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0004 0004 0001 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0145 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 2410 2383 1206 0146 0013 0013

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 70 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0480 0366 0192 0136 0134 0066 1794 1086 0550 0257 0223 0059 Jul 13 1090 0595 0295 0211 0206 0087 3470 1914 0866 0382 0329 0081 Aug 13 1414 1042 0592 0405 0393 0183 2520 1246 0583 0279 0244 0051 Sep 13 0022 0020 0007 0003 0003 0000 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 2158 1914 1449 1232 1223 0686 11327 8482 6147 4024 3772 1983 Jul 23 4880 4228 2975 2345 2232 1011 22882 1640 1132 7462 6937 3328 Aug 23 5764 4995 3535 2966 2831 1607 16530 1132 7842 5252 4936 2134 Sep 23 0326 0226 0119 0091 0090 0052 0321 0075 0029 0013 0012 0001 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 71 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc Jan 13 0184 0078 0031 0014 0004 0003

Feb 13 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 13 0009 0007 0005 0002 0000 0000

May 13 0002 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jul 13 1084 0317 0107 0048 0014 0003

Aug 13 1034 0513 0204 0084 0020 0003

Sep 13 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Oct 13 0009 0006 0004 0002 0000 0000

Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 3359 1851 0990 0513 0222 0162

Feb 23 0173 0066 0015 0003 0000 0000

Mar 23 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 23 0427 0369 0295 0217 0133 0051

May 23 0202 0143 0067 0020 0003 0001

Jun 23 0009 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jul 23 5457 3647 2468 1735 0984 0425

Aug 23 5383 3908 2596 1843 0882 0363

Sep 23 0311 0172 0059 0018 0004 0000

Oct 23 0239 0195 0137 0082 0034 0016

Nov 23 0498 0460 0401 0306 0198 0132

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 72 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 49199 8644 3784 2030 188 160 3125 2058 611 86 02 02 Feb 13 533 01 00 00 00 00 371 245 120 15 01 01 Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 14 14 05 00 00 00 Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 102 102 39 02 00 00

Jan 23 27107 8184 4667 3224 11215 1079 47773 3730 1673 5636 373 363 Feb 23 14134 2090 637 228 03 02 11992 9750 5283 1208 82 81 Mar 23 01 00 00 00 00 00 281 281 122 09 00 00 Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Aug 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 03 03 00 00 00 00 Sep 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Dec 23 216 00 00 00 00 00 1680 1660 809 99 08 08

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 73 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

New England New York CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 13 4808 4409 2517 1799 1786 698 12568 6175 2756 1181 1011 187

Jul 13 10074 7005 3657 2415 2356 701 25985 1037 4083 1629 1362 229

Aug 13 15213 1354 7682 5342 5265 2122 21464 8156 3465 1601 1398 191

Sep 13 124 118 37 16 16 02 14 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 00 00 00 00

Feb 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 23 38630 3769 2652 2079 20729 9602 142999 8982 5704 35408 32707 1305

Jul 23 75805 6813 4354 3217 31753 1353 292936 16983 10283 62175 56818 2079

Aug 23 10065 9661 6862 5405 53336 2715 237645 13435 8290 52673 48853 16148

Sep 23 3087 2801 1678 1221 1212 460 2017 453 153 57 48 02

Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 01 00 00 00

Dec 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 74 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Ontario CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 252 121 40 11 03 02

Feb 13 02 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 03 02 01 00 00 00

May 13 09 05 01 00 00 00

Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jul 13 10319 2982 976 359 75 12

Aug 13 8851 3834 1446 517 85 12

Sep 13 11 02 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 10 06 02 01 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 8279 4839 2027 673 238 154

Feb 23 312 122 25 03 00 00

Mar 23 02 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 272 219 161 91 37 10

May 23 1103 756 334 93 16 06

Jun 23 36 11 02 00 00 00

Jul 23 84551 53152 33941 21124 8344 3101

Aug 23 69062 49778 31530 18895 6344 2266

Sep 23 1940 1081 386 107 18 01

Oct 23 512 348 158 49 12 04

Nov 23 391 336 264 169 92 49

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 47 Final Report

Unknown

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 31254 28865 31431 29058 Coal 782 780 455 454 Petroleum 5339 4986 5321 4986 Gas 17249 15535 17713 16056 Nuclear 3312 3305 3312 3305 Hydro 1420 1322 1412 1320 Pumped Storage 1785 1752 1851 1752 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 983 935 983 935 Wind 381 189 381 189 Solar 0 59 0 59 Other 1 1 1 1 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 0 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal 149 150 149 150 Petroleum 186 186 186 186 Gas 46 46 46 46 Nuclear 09 09 09 09 Hydro 27 26 27 26 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 56 55 56 55 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar 00 00 00 00 Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 31254 28865 31431 29058

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 1070 1265 1174 83 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 48 Final Report

Firm 100 100 100 100 Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1605 1605 1605 1605

Non-Spinning Reserves 1605 1605 1605 1605 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 308 410 298 403 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load Voltage Reductions 308 410 298 403 Public Appeals Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 12526491 2712646 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0026604 0006785

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 137934 139828 Total Internal Demand (MW) 29504 29994 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 13 + 13 Net Internal Demand (MW) 24877 24397 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 32177 31157 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 30030 29041 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 12526 2713 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0091 0019 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0027 0007 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 293 277 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 207 190

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 352259769 5074358166

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 49 Final Report

Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0336001 3355413

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 150698 163451 Total Internal Demand (MW) 32326 35061 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 13 + 13 Net Internal Demand (MW) 26729 29464 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 31157 31157 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 29041 29041 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 352260 5074358 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 2338 31045 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0336 3355 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 166 57 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 87 -14

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 50 Final Report

APPENDIX C Demand and Capacity - New York

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 155567 153898

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 24135 32629 23817 32339 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 22726 30002 22425 29737 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 25742 34454 25401 34148

Other Demand Factors (Included in Total Internal Demand) 585 1738 1133 2388 Energy Efficiency and Conservation 385 775 842 1238 Behind the Meter Generation 0 689 0 843 Distributed Generation 200 274 291 307 Standby Load Under Contract 0 0 0 0

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 637 871 637 871 Total 930 1237 930 1237 Available 637 871 637 871

Net Internal Demand 23498 31759 23180 31469

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 42547 41528 40491 40491

Coal 978 978 978 978 Petroleum 9180 9180 9180 9180 Gas 18163 18163 18163 18163 Nuclear 5769 4750 3713 3713 Hydro 3970 3970 3970 3970 Pumped Storage 1400 1400 1400 1400 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 379 379 379 379 Wind 1739 1739 1739 1739 Solar 32 32 32 32 Other (ROR) 938 938 938 938 Unknown 0 0 0 0

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 51 Final Report

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 40188 37635 39321 36616

Coal 1001 979 1001 979 Petroleum 9203 8465 9203 8465 Gas 18337 17826 19469 17826 Nuclear 5425 4401 3361 3364 Hydro 3284 3313 3284 3313 Pumped Storage 1410 1409 1410 1409 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 329 331 352 350 Wind 632 394 674 394 Solar 1 27 1 27 Other (Run of River) 567 490 567 490 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 0 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal 141 141 141 141 Petroleum 166 166 166 166 Gas 58 58 58 58 Nuclear 31 24 26 26 Hydro 10 10 10 10 Pumped Storage 41 41 41 41 Geothermal 00 00 00 00 Biomass 45 45 45 45 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar 00 00 00 00 Other 00 00 00 00 Unknown 00 00 00 00

Operable Capacity Resources 37184 34843 36328 33843

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 700 1785 1219 1942 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports Firm 0 0 0 0

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 52 Final Report

Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1965 1965 1965 1965

Non-Spinning Reserves 1310 1310 1310 1310 Spinning Reserves 655 655 655 655 Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 491 597 491 597 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load Voltage Reductions 410 516 410 516 Public Appeals 81 81 81 81 Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0073008 0031946 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000700 0000268

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 155567 153898 Total Internal Demand (MW) 32629 32339 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 6 + 6 Net Internal Demand (MW) 31759 31469 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 39419 38558 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 36628 35786 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0073 0032 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0001 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 241 225 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 153 137

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 60708462 4997912227 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0191308 7445002

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 53 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 166111 180493 Total Internal Demand (MW) 34905 37928 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 6 + 6 Net Internal Demand (MW) 34035 37057 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 38558 38558 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 35786 35786 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 60708 4997912 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0365 27690 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0191 7445 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 133 41 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 51 -34

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 54 Final Report

Appendix D Demand and Capacity ndash Ontario

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 133033 132435

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 21315 22085 21163 22098 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 20129 19936 19985 19948 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 22239 24472 22080 24486

Other Demand Factors 0 0 0 0 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 0 0 0 0 Total Available

Net Internal Demand 21315 22085 21163 22098

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 29836 27509 28010 26631

Coal Petroleum 2107 2107 2107 2107 Gas 8031 7267 8031 7267 Nuclear 11289 11235 9381 10357 Hydro 6300 5888 6322 5888 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 300 300 300 300 Wind 1809 673 1807 673 Solar 0 39 0 39 Other

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 55 Final Report

Unknown

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 28228 25954 26533 25134 Coal 0 0 0 0 Petroleum 2107 2107 2107 2107 Gas 7223 6510 7223 6510 Nuclear 10496 10444 8719 9624 Hydro 6300 5888 6322 5888 Pumped Storage 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 293 293 293 293 Wind 1809 673 1870 673 Solar 0 39 0 39 Other 0 0 0 0 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 246 1041 0 0 Scheduled Outages 246 1041 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal Petroleum Gas 101 104 101 104 Nuclear 70 70 71 71 Hydro 00 00 00 00 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 23 23 23 23 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 28228 25954 26533 25134

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 0 0 0 0 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 56 Final Report

Firm 0 500 0 500 Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1418 1418 1418 1418

Non-Spinning Reserves 1418 1418 1418 1418 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 1498 1262 1493 1262 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 795 533 795 533 Voltage Reductions 490 508 487 508 Public Appeals 213 221 212 221 Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 133033 132435 Total Internal Demand (MW) 22085 22098 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 11 + 11 Net Internal Demand (MW) 22085 22098 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 25968 26131 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 24413 24634 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 176 182 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 105 115

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 2556963 559120090

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 57 Final Report

Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0008545 1150387

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 141238 151328 Total Internal Demand (MW) 23567 25251 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 11 + 11 Net Internal Demand (MW) 23567 25251 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 26131 26131 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 24634 24634 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 2557 559120 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0018 3695 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0009 1150 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 109 204 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 45 -24

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 58 Final Report

Appendix E Demand and Capacity - Quebec

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 192928 189157

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 39057 21227 39737 21556 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 35659 19953 36001 20133 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 42733 22641 43778 23134

Other Demand Factors 0 0 0 0 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 1460 0 1544 0 Total Available 1460 1544

Net Internal Demand 37597 21227 38193 21556

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 42101 34901 42443 35197

Coal Petroleum 436 272 436 272 Gas Nuclear Hydro 40173 34233 40458 34519 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 352 397 403 406 Wind 1140 0 1146 0 Solar Other Unknown

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 59 Final Report

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 41400 34321 41733 34607

Coal 0 0 0 0 Petroleum 408 255 408 254 Gas 0 0 0 0 Nuclear 0 0 0 0 Hydro 39522 33695 39803 33973 Pumped Storage 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 330 371 377 380 Wind 1140 0 1146 0 Solar 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 0 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal Petroleum 64 64 65 65 Gas Nuclear Hydro 16 16 16 16 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 64 64 65 65 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 41400 34321 41733 34607

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 500 0 500 0 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports Firm 716 2036 1316 1110

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 60 Final Report

Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1250 1250 1250 1250

Non-Spinning Reserves 1250 1250 1250 1250 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 250 250 250 250 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 0 0 0 0 Voltage Reductions 250 250 250 250 Public Appeals Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 192928 189157 Total Internal Demand (MW) 39057 39737 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 9 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 37597 38193 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41885 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 41184 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 114 90 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 95 71

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004482 1079363992 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0071871 1368365

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 61 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 196519 204518 Total Internal Demand (MW) 41283 42964 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 10 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 39739 41420 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41627 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 40917 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004 1079364 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0081 5278 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0072 1368 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 48 05 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 30 -12

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 62 Final Report

Appendix F Definitions

Net Energy for Load (GWh) Energy Modeled (Input) Total Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load (Input)

Demand-Side Management ndash Available Sum of DCLM Interruptible Load CPP Load as Cap (from Form A) (Not probabilistic data)

Net Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load - Demand-Side Management ndash Available Capacity Expected on Peak Sum of capacity by type modeled in probabilistic (Input) Net Firm ImportExports Input Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) Capacity Expected on Peak + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Weighted average forced outage Input based on weighted EFOR by Area Operable Capacity Resources Sum of capacity expected on peak weighted average forced outage rate by type Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) Operable Capacity Resources + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) Result (Input) Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) Result (Input) Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () Forecast Capacity ResourcesNet Internal Demand ndash 1 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () Forecast Operable Capacity Resources Net Internal Demand ndash 1

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 63 Final Report

Appendix G Monthly Results

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0281 0011 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0011 0003 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0022 0006 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0062 0020 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 1184 0066 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0093 0038 0002 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0013 0005 0001 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0014 0004 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 64 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0020 0008 0004 0004 0001 0016 0007 0001 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0126 0061 0036 0035 0008 0177 0081 0011 0004 0003 0000 Aug 20 0000 0170 0100 0066 0066 0018 0084 0039 0009 0004 0003 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0039 0017 0009 0009 0001 0099 0046 0008 0002 0001 0000 Jul 22 0000 0053 0015 0006 0006 0001 0191 0066 0010 0002 0001 0000 Aug 22 0000 0109 0053 0029 0029 0005 0143 0042 0008 0002 0001 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 65 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0017 0009 0002 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0094 0013 0001 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0033 0004 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0154 0026 0003 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0133 0025 0004 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 66 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 534 01 00 00 00 00 00 04 01 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 02 00 00 00 Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 26 08 00 00 00

Jan 22 5150 143 07 01 00 00 00 58 20 01 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 04 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 06 02 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 67 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 20 00 131 45 22 22 03

47 14 03 01 00 00

Jul 20 00 1003 397 208 207 34

695 176 28 07 05 00

Aug 20 00 1640 796 459 458 89

366 119 35 11 09 00

Sep 20 00 02 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 22 00 292 100 47 46 05

356 111 21 05 03 00

Jul 22 00 360 75 29 29 03

819 166 22 04 03 00

Aug 22 00 933 361 174 170 19

736 135 24 05 03 00

Sep 22 00 01 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 68 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 20 02 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 412 60 04 00 00 00 Aug 20 168 22 01 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 03 01 00 00 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 810 143 12 01 00 00 Aug 22 872 151 17 01 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 69 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 6800 1193 0659 0419 0082 0072 2452 1384 0608 0093 0004 0004 Feb 13 0276 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0425 0307 0162 0025 0002 0002 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0027 0027 0012 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0198 0198 0077 0004 0000 0000

Jan 23 25577 8034 5143 3763 1417 1367 20970 1390 8337 3131 0373 0370 Feb 23 2206 0401 0188 0098 0001 0001 8255 7122 4599 1179 0125 0125 Mar 23 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0455 0455 0209 0019 0001 0001 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0004 0004 0001 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0145 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 2410 2383 1206 0146 0013 0013

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 70 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0480 0366 0192 0136 0134 0066 1794 1086 0550 0257 0223 0059 Jul 13 1090 0595 0295 0211 0206 0087 3470 1914 0866 0382 0329 0081 Aug 13 1414 1042 0592 0405 0393 0183 2520 1246 0583 0279 0244 0051 Sep 13 0022 0020 0007 0003 0003 0000 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 2158 1914 1449 1232 1223 0686 11327 8482 6147 4024 3772 1983 Jul 23 4880 4228 2975 2345 2232 1011 22882 1640 1132 7462 6937 3328 Aug 23 5764 4995 3535 2966 2831 1607 16530 1132 7842 5252 4936 2134 Sep 23 0326 0226 0119 0091 0090 0052 0321 0075 0029 0013 0012 0001 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 71 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc Jan 13 0184 0078 0031 0014 0004 0003

Feb 13 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 13 0009 0007 0005 0002 0000 0000

May 13 0002 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jul 13 1084 0317 0107 0048 0014 0003

Aug 13 1034 0513 0204 0084 0020 0003

Sep 13 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Oct 13 0009 0006 0004 0002 0000 0000

Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 3359 1851 0990 0513 0222 0162

Feb 23 0173 0066 0015 0003 0000 0000

Mar 23 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 23 0427 0369 0295 0217 0133 0051

May 23 0202 0143 0067 0020 0003 0001

Jun 23 0009 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jul 23 5457 3647 2468 1735 0984 0425

Aug 23 5383 3908 2596 1843 0882 0363

Sep 23 0311 0172 0059 0018 0004 0000

Oct 23 0239 0195 0137 0082 0034 0016

Nov 23 0498 0460 0401 0306 0198 0132

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 72 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 49199 8644 3784 2030 188 160 3125 2058 611 86 02 02 Feb 13 533 01 00 00 00 00 371 245 120 15 01 01 Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 14 14 05 00 00 00 Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 102 102 39 02 00 00

Jan 23 27107 8184 4667 3224 11215 1079 47773 3730 1673 5636 373 363 Feb 23 14134 2090 637 228 03 02 11992 9750 5283 1208 82 81 Mar 23 01 00 00 00 00 00 281 281 122 09 00 00 Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Aug 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 03 03 00 00 00 00 Sep 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Dec 23 216 00 00 00 00 00 1680 1660 809 99 08 08

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 73 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

New England New York CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 13 4808 4409 2517 1799 1786 698 12568 6175 2756 1181 1011 187

Jul 13 10074 7005 3657 2415 2356 701 25985 1037 4083 1629 1362 229

Aug 13 15213 1354 7682 5342 5265 2122 21464 8156 3465 1601 1398 191

Sep 13 124 118 37 16 16 02 14 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 00 00 00 00

Feb 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 23 38630 3769 2652 2079 20729 9602 142999 8982 5704 35408 32707 1305

Jul 23 75805 6813 4354 3217 31753 1353 292936 16983 10283 62175 56818 2079

Aug 23 10065 9661 6862 5405 53336 2715 237645 13435 8290 52673 48853 16148

Sep 23 3087 2801 1678 1221 1212 460 2017 453 153 57 48 02

Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 01 00 00 00

Dec 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 74 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Ontario CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 252 121 40 11 03 02

Feb 13 02 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 03 02 01 00 00 00

May 13 09 05 01 00 00 00

Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jul 13 10319 2982 976 359 75 12

Aug 13 8851 3834 1446 517 85 12

Sep 13 11 02 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 10 06 02 01 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 8279 4839 2027 673 238 154

Feb 23 312 122 25 03 00 00

Mar 23 02 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 272 219 161 91 37 10

May 23 1103 756 334 93 16 06

Jun 23 36 11 02 00 00 00

Jul 23 84551 53152 33941 21124 8344 3101

Aug 23 69062 49778 31530 18895 6344 2266

Sep 23 1940 1081 386 107 18 01

Oct 23 512 348 158 49 12 04

Nov 23 391 336 264 169 92 49

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 48 Final Report

Firm 100 100 100 100 Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1605 1605 1605 1605

Non-Spinning Reserves 1605 1605 1605 1605 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 308 410 298 403 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load Voltage Reductions 308 410 298 403 Public Appeals Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 12526491 2712646 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0026604 0006785

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 137934 139828 Total Internal Demand (MW) 29504 29994 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 13 + 13 Net Internal Demand (MW) 24877 24397 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 32177 31157 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 30030 29041 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 12526 2713 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0091 0019 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0027 0007 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 293 277 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 207 190

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 352259769 5074358166

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 49 Final Report

Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0336001 3355413

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 150698 163451 Total Internal Demand (MW) 32326 35061 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 13 + 13 Net Internal Demand (MW) 26729 29464 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 31157 31157 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 29041 29041 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 352260 5074358 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 2338 31045 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0336 3355 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 166 57 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 87 -14

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 50 Final Report

APPENDIX C Demand and Capacity - New York

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 155567 153898

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 24135 32629 23817 32339 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 22726 30002 22425 29737 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 25742 34454 25401 34148

Other Demand Factors (Included in Total Internal Demand) 585 1738 1133 2388 Energy Efficiency and Conservation 385 775 842 1238 Behind the Meter Generation 0 689 0 843 Distributed Generation 200 274 291 307 Standby Load Under Contract 0 0 0 0

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 637 871 637 871 Total 930 1237 930 1237 Available 637 871 637 871

Net Internal Demand 23498 31759 23180 31469

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 42547 41528 40491 40491

Coal 978 978 978 978 Petroleum 9180 9180 9180 9180 Gas 18163 18163 18163 18163 Nuclear 5769 4750 3713 3713 Hydro 3970 3970 3970 3970 Pumped Storage 1400 1400 1400 1400 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 379 379 379 379 Wind 1739 1739 1739 1739 Solar 32 32 32 32 Other (ROR) 938 938 938 938 Unknown 0 0 0 0

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 51 Final Report

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 40188 37635 39321 36616

Coal 1001 979 1001 979 Petroleum 9203 8465 9203 8465 Gas 18337 17826 19469 17826 Nuclear 5425 4401 3361 3364 Hydro 3284 3313 3284 3313 Pumped Storage 1410 1409 1410 1409 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 329 331 352 350 Wind 632 394 674 394 Solar 1 27 1 27 Other (Run of River) 567 490 567 490 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 0 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal 141 141 141 141 Petroleum 166 166 166 166 Gas 58 58 58 58 Nuclear 31 24 26 26 Hydro 10 10 10 10 Pumped Storage 41 41 41 41 Geothermal 00 00 00 00 Biomass 45 45 45 45 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar 00 00 00 00 Other 00 00 00 00 Unknown 00 00 00 00

Operable Capacity Resources 37184 34843 36328 33843

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 700 1785 1219 1942 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports Firm 0 0 0 0

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 52 Final Report

Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1965 1965 1965 1965

Non-Spinning Reserves 1310 1310 1310 1310 Spinning Reserves 655 655 655 655 Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 491 597 491 597 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load Voltage Reductions 410 516 410 516 Public Appeals 81 81 81 81 Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0073008 0031946 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000700 0000268

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 155567 153898 Total Internal Demand (MW) 32629 32339 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 6 + 6 Net Internal Demand (MW) 31759 31469 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 39419 38558 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 36628 35786 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0073 0032 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0001 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 241 225 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 153 137

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 60708462 4997912227 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0191308 7445002

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 53 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 166111 180493 Total Internal Demand (MW) 34905 37928 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 6 + 6 Net Internal Demand (MW) 34035 37057 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 38558 38558 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 35786 35786 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 60708 4997912 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0365 27690 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0191 7445 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 133 41 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 51 -34

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 54 Final Report

Appendix D Demand and Capacity ndash Ontario

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 133033 132435

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 21315 22085 21163 22098 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 20129 19936 19985 19948 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 22239 24472 22080 24486

Other Demand Factors 0 0 0 0 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 0 0 0 0 Total Available

Net Internal Demand 21315 22085 21163 22098

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 29836 27509 28010 26631

Coal Petroleum 2107 2107 2107 2107 Gas 8031 7267 8031 7267 Nuclear 11289 11235 9381 10357 Hydro 6300 5888 6322 5888 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 300 300 300 300 Wind 1809 673 1807 673 Solar 0 39 0 39 Other

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 55 Final Report

Unknown

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 28228 25954 26533 25134 Coal 0 0 0 0 Petroleum 2107 2107 2107 2107 Gas 7223 6510 7223 6510 Nuclear 10496 10444 8719 9624 Hydro 6300 5888 6322 5888 Pumped Storage 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 293 293 293 293 Wind 1809 673 1870 673 Solar 0 39 0 39 Other 0 0 0 0 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 246 1041 0 0 Scheduled Outages 246 1041 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal Petroleum Gas 101 104 101 104 Nuclear 70 70 71 71 Hydro 00 00 00 00 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 23 23 23 23 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 28228 25954 26533 25134

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 0 0 0 0 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 56 Final Report

Firm 0 500 0 500 Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1418 1418 1418 1418

Non-Spinning Reserves 1418 1418 1418 1418 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 1498 1262 1493 1262 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 795 533 795 533 Voltage Reductions 490 508 487 508 Public Appeals 213 221 212 221 Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 133033 132435 Total Internal Demand (MW) 22085 22098 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 11 + 11 Net Internal Demand (MW) 22085 22098 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 25968 26131 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 24413 24634 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 176 182 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 105 115

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 2556963 559120090

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 57 Final Report

Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0008545 1150387

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 141238 151328 Total Internal Demand (MW) 23567 25251 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 11 + 11 Net Internal Demand (MW) 23567 25251 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 26131 26131 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 24634 24634 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 2557 559120 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0018 3695 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0009 1150 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 109 204 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 45 -24

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 58 Final Report

Appendix E Demand and Capacity - Quebec

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 192928 189157

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 39057 21227 39737 21556 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 35659 19953 36001 20133 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 42733 22641 43778 23134

Other Demand Factors 0 0 0 0 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 1460 0 1544 0 Total Available 1460 1544

Net Internal Demand 37597 21227 38193 21556

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 42101 34901 42443 35197

Coal Petroleum 436 272 436 272 Gas Nuclear Hydro 40173 34233 40458 34519 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 352 397 403 406 Wind 1140 0 1146 0 Solar Other Unknown

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 59 Final Report

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 41400 34321 41733 34607

Coal 0 0 0 0 Petroleum 408 255 408 254 Gas 0 0 0 0 Nuclear 0 0 0 0 Hydro 39522 33695 39803 33973 Pumped Storage 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 330 371 377 380 Wind 1140 0 1146 0 Solar 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 0 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal Petroleum 64 64 65 65 Gas Nuclear Hydro 16 16 16 16 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 64 64 65 65 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 41400 34321 41733 34607

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 500 0 500 0 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports Firm 716 2036 1316 1110

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 60 Final Report

Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1250 1250 1250 1250

Non-Spinning Reserves 1250 1250 1250 1250 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 250 250 250 250 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 0 0 0 0 Voltage Reductions 250 250 250 250 Public Appeals Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 192928 189157 Total Internal Demand (MW) 39057 39737 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 9 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 37597 38193 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41885 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 41184 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 114 90 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 95 71

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004482 1079363992 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0071871 1368365

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 61 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 196519 204518 Total Internal Demand (MW) 41283 42964 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 10 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 39739 41420 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41627 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 40917 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004 1079364 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0081 5278 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0072 1368 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 48 05 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 30 -12

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 62 Final Report

Appendix F Definitions

Net Energy for Load (GWh) Energy Modeled (Input) Total Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load (Input)

Demand-Side Management ndash Available Sum of DCLM Interruptible Load CPP Load as Cap (from Form A) (Not probabilistic data)

Net Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load - Demand-Side Management ndash Available Capacity Expected on Peak Sum of capacity by type modeled in probabilistic (Input) Net Firm ImportExports Input Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) Capacity Expected on Peak + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Weighted average forced outage Input based on weighted EFOR by Area Operable Capacity Resources Sum of capacity expected on peak weighted average forced outage rate by type Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) Operable Capacity Resources + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) Result (Input) Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) Result (Input) Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () Forecast Capacity ResourcesNet Internal Demand ndash 1 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () Forecast Operable Capacity Resources Net Internal Demand ndash 1

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 63 Final Report

Appendix G Monthly Results

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0281 0011 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0011 0003 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0022 0006 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0062 0020 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 1184 0066 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0093 0038 0002 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0013 0005 0001 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0014 0004 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 64 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0020 0008 0004 0004 0001 0016 0007 0001 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0126 0061 0036 0035 0008 0177 0081 0011 0004 0003 0000 Aug 20 0000 0170 0100 0066 0066 0018 0084 0039 0009 0004 0003 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0039 0017 0009 0009 0001 0099 0046 0008 0002 0001 0000 Jul 22 0000 0053 0015 0006 0006 0001 0191 0066 0010 0002 0001 0000 Aug 22 0000 0109 0053 0029 0029 0005 0143 0042 0008 0002 0001 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 65 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0017 0009 0002 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0094 0013 0001 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0033 0004 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0154 0026 0003 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0133 0025 0004 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 66 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 534 01 00 00 00 00 00 04 01 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 02 00 00 00 Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 26 08 00 00 00

Jan 22 5150 143 07 01 00 00 00 58 20 01 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 04 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 06 02 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 67 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 20 00 131 45 22 22 03

47 14 03 01 00 00

Jul 20 00 1003 397 208 207 34

695 176 28 07 05 00

Aug 20 00 1640 796 459 458 89

366 119 35 11 09 00

Sep 20 00 02 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 22 00 292 100 47 46 05

356 111 21 05 03 00

Jul 22 00 360 75 29 29 03

819 166 22 04 03 00

Aug 22 00 933 361 174 170 19

736 135 24 05 03 00

Sep 22 00 01 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 68 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 20 02 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 412 60 04 00 00 00 Aug 20 168 22 01 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 03 01 00 00 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 810 143 12 01 00 00 Aug 22 872 151 17 01 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 69 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 6800 1193 0659 0419 0082 0072 2452 1384 0608 0093 0004 0004 Feb 13 0276 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0425 0307 0162 0025 0002 0002 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0027 0027 0012 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0198 0198 0077 0004 0000 0000

Jan 23 25577 8034 5143 3763 1417 1367 20970 1390 8337 3131 0373 0370 Feb 23 2206 0401 0188 0098 0001 0001 8255 7122 4599 1179 0125 0125 Mar 23 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0455 0455 0209 0019 0001 0001 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0004 0004 0001 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0145 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 2410 2383 1206 0146 0013 0013

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 70 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0480 0366 0192 0136 0134 0066 1794 1086 0550 0257 0223 0059 Jul 13 1090 0595 0295 0211 0206 0087 3470 1914 0866 0382 0329 0081 Aug 13 1414 1042 0592 0405 0393 0183 2520 1246 0583 0279 0244 0051 Sep 13 0022 0020 0007 0003 0003 0000 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 2158 1914 1449 1232 1223 0686 11327 8482 6147 4024 3772 1983 Jul 23 4880 4228 2975 2345 2232 1011 22882 1640 1132 7462 6937 3328 Aug 23 5764 4995 3535 2966 2831 1607 16530 1132 7842 5252 4936 2134 Sep 23 0326 0226 0119 0091 0090 0052 0321 0075 0029 0013 0012 0001 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 71 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc Jan 13 0184 0078 0031 0014 0004 0003

Feb 13 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 13 0009 0007 0005 0002 0000 0000

May 13 0002 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jul 13 1084 0317 0107 0048 0014 0003

Aug 13 1034 0513 0204 0084 0020 0003

Sep 13 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Oct 13 0009 0006 0004 0002 0000 0000

Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 3359 1851 0990 0513 0222 0162

Feb 23 0173 0066 0015 0003 0000 0000

Mar 23 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 23 0427 0369 0295 0217 0133 0051

May 23 0202 0143 0067 0020 0003 0001

Jun 23 0009 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jul 23 5457 3647 2468 1735 0984 0425

Aug 23 5383 3908 2596 1843 0882 0363

Sep 23 0311 0172 0059 0018 0004 0000

Oct 23 0239 0195 0137 0082 0034 0016

Nov 23 0498 0460 0401 0306 0198 0132

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 72 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 49199 8644 3784 2030 188 160 3125 2058 611 86 02 02 Feb 13 533 01 00 00 00 00 371 245 120 15 01 01 Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 14 14 05 00 00 00 Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 102 102 39 02 00 00

Jan 23 27107 8184 4667 3224 11215 1079 47773 3730 1673 5636 373 363 Feb 23 14134 2090 637 228 03 02 11992 9750 5283 1208 82 81 Mar 23 01 00 00 00 00 00 281 281 122 09 00 00 Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Aug 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 03 03 00 00 00 00 Sep 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Dec 23 216 00 00 00 00 00 1680 1660 809 99 08 08

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 73 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

New England New York CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 13 4808 4409 2517 1799 1786 698 12568 6175 2756 1181 1011 187

Jul 13 10074 7005 3657 2415 2356 701 25985 1037 4083 1629 1362 229

Aug 13 15213 1354 7682 5342 5265 2122 21464 8156 3465 1601 1398 191

Sep 13 124 118 37 16 16 02 14 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 00 00 00 00

Feb 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 23 38630 3769 2652 2079 20729 9602 142999 8982 5704 35408 32707 1305

Jul 23 75805 6813 4354 3217 31753 1353 292936 16983 10283 62175 56818 2079

Aug 23 10065 9661 6862 5405 53336 2715 237645 13435 8290 52673 48853 16148

Sep 23 3087 2801 1678 1221 1212 460 2017 453 153 57 48 02

Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 01 00 00 00

Dec 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 74 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Ontario CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 252 121 40 11 03 02

Feb 13 02 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 03 02 01 00 00 00

May 13 09 05 01 00 00 00

Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jul 13 10319 2982 976 359 75 12

Aug 13 8851 3834 1446 517 85 12

Sep 13 11 02 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 10 06 02 01 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 8279 4839 2027 673 238 154

Feb 23 312 122 25 03 00 00

Mar 23 02 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 272 219 161 91 37 10

May 23 1103 756 334 93 16 06

Jun 23 36 11 02 00 00 00

Jul 23 84551 53152 33941 21124 8344 3101

Aug 23 69062 49778 31530 18895 6344 2266

Sep 23 1940 1081 386 107 18 01

Oct 23 512 348 158 49 12 04

Nov 23 391 336 264 169 92 49

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 49 Final Report

Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0336001 3355413

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 150698 163451 Total Internal Demand (MW) 32326 35061 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 13 + 13 Net Internal Demand (MW) 26729 29464 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 31157 31157 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 29041 29041 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 352260 5074358 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 2338 31045 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0336 3355 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 166 57 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 87 -14

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 50 Final Report

APPENDIX C Demand and Capacity - New York

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 155567 153898

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 24135 32629 23817 32339 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 22726 30002 22425 29737 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 25742 34454 25401 34148

Other Demand Factors (Included in Total Internal Demand) 585 1738 1133 2388 Energy Efficiency and Conservation 385 775 842 1238 Behind the Meter Generation 0 689 0 843 Distributed Generation 200 274 291 307 Standby Load Under Contract 0 0 0 0

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 637 871 637 871 Total 930 1237 930 1237 Available 637 871 637 871

Net Internal Demand 23498 31759 23180 31469

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 42547 41528 40491 40491

Coal 978 978 978 978 Petroleum 9180 9180 9180 9180 Gas 18163 18163 18163 18163 Nuclear 5769 4750 3713 3713 Hydro 3970 3970 3970 3970 Pumped Storage 1400 1400 1400 1400 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 379 379 379 379 Wind 1739 1739 1739 1739 Solar 32 32 32 32 Other (ROR) 938 938 938 938 Unknown 0 0 0 0

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 51 Final Report

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 40188 37635 39321 36616

Coal 1001 979 1001 979 Petroleum 9203 8465 9203 8465 Gas 18337 17826 19469 17826 Nuclear 5425 4401 3361 3364 Hydro 3284 3313 3284 3313 Pumped Storage 1410 1409 1410 1409 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 329 331 352 350 Wind 632 394 674 394 Solar 1 27 1 27 Other (Run of River) 567 490 567 490 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 0 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal 141 141 141 141 Petroleum 166 166 166 166 Gas 58 58 58 58 Nuclear 31 24 26 26 Hydro 10 10 10 10 Pumped Storage 41 41 41 41 Geothermal 00 00 00 00 Biomass 45 45 45 45 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar 00 00 00 00 Other 00 00 00 00 Unknown 00 00 00 00

Operable Capacity Resources 37184 34843 36328 33843

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 700 1785 1219 1942 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports Firm 0 0 0 0

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 52 Final Report

Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1965 1965 1965 1965

Non-Spinning Reserves 1310 1310 1310 1310 Spinning Reserves 655 655 655 655 Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 491 597 491 597 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load Voltage Reductions 410 516 410 516 Public Appeals 81 81 81 81 Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0073008 0031946 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000700 0000268

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 155567 153898 Total Internal Demand (MW) 32629 32339 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 6 + 6 Net Internal Demand (MW) 31759 31469 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 39419 38558 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 36628 35786 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0073 0032 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0001 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 241 225 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 153 137

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 60708462 4997912227 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0191308 7445002

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 53 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 166111 180493 Total Internal Demand (MW) 34905 37928 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 6 + 6 Net Internal Demand (MW) 34035 37057 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 38558 38558 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 35786 35786 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 60708 4997912 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0365 27690 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0191 7445 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 133 41 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 51 -34

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 54 Final Report

Appendix D Demand and Capacity ndash Ontario

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 133033 132435

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 21315 22085 21163 22098 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 20129 19936 19985 19948 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 22239 24472 22080 24486

Other Demand Factors 0 0 0 0 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 0 0 0 0 Total Available

Net Internal Demand 21315 22085 21163 22098

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 29836 27509 28010 26631

Coal Petroleum 2107 2107 2107 2107 Gas 8031 7267 8031 7267 Nuclear 11289 11235 9381 10357 Hydro 6300 5888 6322 5888 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 300 300 300 300 Wind 1809 673 1807 673 Solar 0 39 0 39 Other

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 55 Final Report

Unknown

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 28228 25954 26533 25134 Coal 0 0 0 0 Petroleum 2107 2107 2107 2107 Gas 7223 6510 7223 6510 Nuclear 10496 10444 8719 9624 Hydro 6300 5888 6322 5888 Pumped Storage 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 293 293 293 293 Wind 1809 673 1870 673 Solar 0 39 0 39 Other 0 0 0 0 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 246 1041 0 0 Scheduled Outages 246 1041 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal Petroleum Gas 101 104 101 104 Nuclear 70 70 71 71 Hydro 00 00 00 00 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 23 23 23 23 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 28228 25954 26533 25134

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 0 0 0 0 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 56 Final Report

Firm 0 500 0 500 Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1418 1418 1418 1418

Non-Spinning Reserves 1418 1418 1418 1418 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 1498 1262 1493 1262 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 795 533 795 533 Voltage Reductions 490 508 487 508 Public Appeals 213 221 212 221 Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 133033 132435 Total Internal Demand (MW) 22085 22098 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 11 + 11 Net Internal Demand (MW) 22085 22098 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 25968 26131 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 24413 24634 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 176 182 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 105 115

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 2556963 559120090

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 57 Final Report

Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0008545 1150387

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 141238 151328 Total Internal Demand (MW) 23567 25251 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 11 + 11 Net Internal Demand (MW) 23567 25251 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 26131 26131 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 24634 24634 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 2557 559120 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0018 3695 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0009 1150 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 109 204 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 45 -24

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 58 Final Report

Appendix E Demand and Capacity - Quebec

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 192928 189157

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 39057 21227 39737 21556 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 35659 19953 36001 20133 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 42733 22641 43778 23134

Other Demand Factors 0 0 0 0 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 1460 0 1544 0 Total Available 1460 1544

Net Internal Demand 37597 21227 38193 21556

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 42101 34901 42443 35197

Coal Petroleum 436 272 436 272 Gas Nuclear Hydro 40173 34233 40458 34519 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 352 397 403 406 Wind 1140 0 1146 0 Solar Other Unknown

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 59 Final Report

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 41400 34321 41733 34607

Coal 0 0 0 0 Petroleum 408 255 408 254 Gas 0 0 0 0 Nuclear 0 0 0 0 Hydro 39522 33695 39803 33973 Pumped Storage 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 330 371 377 380 Wind 1140 0 1146 0 Solar 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 0 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal Petroleum 64 64 65 65 Gas Nuclear Hydro 16 16 16 16 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 64 64 65 65 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 41400 34321 41733 34607

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 500 0 500 0 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports Firm 716 2036 1316 1110

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 60 Final Report

Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1250 1250 1250 1250

Non-Spinning Reserves 1250 1250 1250 1250 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 250 250 250 250 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 0 0 0 0 Voltage Reductions 250 250 250 250 Public Appeals Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 192928 189157 Total Internal Demand (MW) 39057 39737 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 9 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 37597 38193 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41885 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 41184 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 114 90 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 95 71

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004482 1079363992 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0071871 1368365

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 61 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 196519 204518 Total Internal Demand (MW) 41283 42964 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 10 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 39739 41420 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41627 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 40917 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004 1079364 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0081 5278 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0072 1368 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 48 05 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 30 -12

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 62 Final Report

Appendix F Definitions

Net Energy for Load (GWh) Energy Modeled (Input) Total Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load (Input)

Demand-Side Management ndash Available Sum of DCLM Interruptible Load CPP Load as Cap (from Form A) (Not probabilistic data)

Net Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load - Demand-Side Management ndash Available Capacity Expected on Peak Sum of capacity by type modeled in probabilistic (Input) Net Firm ImportExports Input Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) Capacity Expected on Peak + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Weighted average forced outage Input based on weighted EFOR by Area Operable Capacity Resources Sum of capacity expected on peak weighted average forced outage rate by type Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) Operable Capacity Resources + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) Result (Input) Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) Result (Input) Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () Forecast Capacity ResourcesNet Internal Demand ndash 1 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () Forecast Operable Capacity Resources Net Internal Demand ndash 1

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 63 Final Report

Appendix G Monthly Results

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0281 0011 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0011 0003 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0022 0006 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0062 0020 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 1184 0066 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0093 0038 0002 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0013 0005 0001 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0014 0004 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 64 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0020 0008 0004 0004 0001 0016 0007 0001 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0126 0061 0036 0035 0008 0177 0081 0011 0004 0003 0000 Aug 20 0000 0170 0100 0066 0066 0018 0084 0039 0009 0004 0003 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0039 0017 0009 0009 0001 0099 0046 0008 0002 0001 0000 Jul 22 0000 0053 0015 0006 0006 0001 0191 0066 0010 0002 0001 0000 Aug 22 0000 0109 0053 0029 0029 0005 0143 0042 0008 0002 0001 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 65 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0017 0009 0002 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0094 0013 0001 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0033 0004 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0154 0026 0003 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0133 0025 0004 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 66 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 534 01 00 00 00 00 00 04 01 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 02 00 00 00 Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 26 08 00 00 00

Jan 22 5150 143 07 01 00 00 00 58 20 01 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 04 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 06 02 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 67 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 20 00 131 45 22 22 03

47 14 03 01 00 00

Jul 20 00 1003 397 208 207 34

695 176 28 07 05 00

Aug 20 00 1640 796 459 458 89

366 119 35 11 09 00

Sep 20 00 02 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 22 00 292 100 47 46 05

356 111 21 05 03 00

Jul 22 00 360 75 29 29 03

819 166 22 04 03 00

Aug 22 00 933 361 174 170 19

736 135 24 05 03 00

Sep 22 00 01 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 68 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 20 02 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 412 60 04 00 00 00 Aug 20 168 22 01 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 03 01 00 00 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 810 143 12 01 00 00 Aug 22 872 151 17 01 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 69 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 6800 1193 0659 0419 0082 0072 2452 1384 0608 0093 0004 0004 Feb 13 0276 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0425 0307 0162 0025 0002 0002 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0027 0027 0012 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0198 0198 0077 0004 0000 0000

Jan 23 25577 8034 5143 3763 1417 1367 20970 1390 8337 3131 0373 0370 Feb 23 2206 0401 0188 0098 0001 0001 8255 7122 4599 1179 0125 0125 Mar 23 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0455 0455 0209 0019 0001 0001 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0004 0004 0001 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0145 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 2410 2383 1206 0146 0013 0013

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 70 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0480 0366 0192 0136 0134 0066 1794 1086 0550 0257 0223 0059 Jul 13 1090 0595 0295 0211 0206 0087 3470 1914 0866 0382 0329 0081 Aug 13 1414 1042 0592 0405 0393 0183 2520 1246 0583 0279 0244 0051 Sep 13 0022 0020 0007 0003 0003 0000 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 2158 1914 1449 1232 1223 0686 11327 8482 6147 4024 3772 1983 Jul 23 4880 4228 2975 2345 2232 1011 22882 1640 1132 7462 6937 3328 Aug 23 5764 4995 3535 2966 2831 1607 16530 1132 7842 5252 4936 2134 Sep 23 0326 0226 0119 0091 0090 0052 0321 0075 0029 0013 0012 0001 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 71 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc Jan 13 0184 0078 0031 0014 0004 0003

Feb 13 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 13 0009 0007 0005 0002 0000 0000

May 13 0002 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jul 13 1084 0317 0107 0048 0014 0003

Aug 13 1034 0513 0204 0084 0020 0003

Sep 13 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Oct 13 0009 0006 0004 0002 0000 0000

Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 3359 1851 0990 0513 0222 0162

Feb 23 0173 0066 0015 0003 0000 0000

Mar 23 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 23 0427 0369 0295 0217 0133 0051

May 23 0202 0143 0067 0020 0003 0001

Jun 23 0009 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jul 23 5457 3647 2468 1735 0984 0425

Aug 23 5383 3908 2596 1843 0882 0363

Sep 23 0311 0172 0059 0018 0004 0000

Oct 23 0239 0195 0137 0082 0034 0016

Nov 23 0498 0460 0401 0306 0198 0132

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 72 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 49199 8644 3784 2030 188 160 3125 2058 611 86 02 02 Feb 13 533 01 00 00 00 00 371 245 120 15 01 01 Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 14 14 05 00 00 00 Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 102 102 39 02 00 00

Jan 23 27107 8184 4667 3224 11215 1079 47773 3730 1673 5636 373 363 Feb 23 14134 2090 637 228 03 02 11992 9750 5283 1208 82 81 Mar 23 01 00 00 00 00 00 281 281 122 09 00 00 Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Aug 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 03 03 00 00 00 00 Sep 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Dec 23 216 00 00 00 00 00 1680 1660 809 99 08 08

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 73 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

New England New York CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 13 4808 4409 2517 1799 1786 698 12568 6175 2756 1181 1011 187

Jul 13 10074 7005 3657 2415 2356 701 25985 1037 4083 1629 1362 229

Aug 13 15213 1354 7682 5342 5265 2122 21464 8156 3465 1601 1398 191

Sep 13 124 118 37 16 16 02 14 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 00 00 00 00

Feb 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 23 38630 3769 2652 2079 20729 9602 142999 8982 5704 35408 32707 1305

Jul 23 75805 6813 4354 3217 31753 1353 292936 16983 10283 62175 56818 2079

Aug 23 10065 9661 6862 5405 53336 2715 237645 13435 8290 52673 48853 16148

Sep 23 3087 2801 1678 1221 1212 460 2017 453 153 57 48 02

Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 01 00 00 00

Dec 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 74 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Ontario CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 252 121 40 11 03 02

Feb 13 02 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 03 02 01 00 00 00

May 13 09 05 01 00 00 00

Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jul 13 10319 2982 976 359 75 12

Aug 13 8851 3834 1446 517 85 12

Sep 13 11 02 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 10 06 02 01 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 8279 4839 2027 673 238 154

Feb 23 312 122 25 03 00 00

Mar 23 02 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 272 219 161 91 37 10

May 23 1103 756 334 93 16 06

Jun 23 36 11 02 00 00 00

Jul 23 84551 53152 33941 21124 8344 3101

Aug 23 69062 49778 31530 18895 6344 2266

Sep 23 1940 1081 386 107 18 01

Oct 23 512 348 158 49 12 04

Nov 23 391 336 264 169 92 49

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 50 Final Report

APPENDIX C Demand and Capacity - New York

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 155567 153898

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 24135 32629 23817 32339 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 22726 30002 22425 29737 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 25742 34454 25401 34148

Other Demand Factors (Included in Total Internal Demand) 585 1738 1133 2388 Energy Efficiency and Conservation 385 775 842 1238 Behind the Meter Generation 0 689 0 843 Distributed Generation 200 274 291 307 Standby Load Under Contract 0 0 0 0

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 637 871 637 871 Total 930 1237 930 1237 Available 637 871 637 871

Net Internal Demand 23498 31759 23180 31469

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 42547 41528 40491 40491

Coal 978 978 978 978 Petroleum 9180 9180 9180 9180 Gas 18163 18163 18163 18163 Nuclear 5769 4750 3713 3713 Hydro 3970 3970 3970 3970 Pumped Storage 1400 1400 1400 1400 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 379 379 379 379 Wind 1739 1739 1739 1739 Solar 32 32 32 32 Other (ROR) 938 938 938 938 Unknown 0 0 0 0

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 51 Final Report

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 40188 37635 39321 36616

Coal 1001 979 1001 979 Petroleum 9203 8465 9203 8465 Gas 18337 17826 19469 17826 Nuclear 5425 4401 3361 3364 Hydro 3284 3313 3284 3313 Pumped Storage 1410 1409 1410 1409 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 329 331 352 350 Wind 632 394 674 394 Solar 1 27 1 27 Other (Run of River) 567 490 567 490 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 0 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal 141 141 141 141 Petroleum 166 166 166 166 Gas 58 58 58 58 Nuclear 31 24 26 26 Hydro 10 10 10 10 Pumped Storage 41 41 41 41 Geothermal 00 00 00 00 Biomass 45 45 45 45 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar 00 00 00 00 Other 00 00 00 00 Unknown 00 00 00 00

Operable Capacity Resources 37184 34843 36328 33843

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 700 1785 1219 1942 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports Firm 0 0 0 0

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 52 Final Report

Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1965 1965 1965 1965

Non-Spinning Reserves 1310 1310 1310 1310 Spinning Reserves 655 655 655 655 Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 491 597 491 597 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load Voltage Reductions 410 516 410 516 Public Appeals 81 81 81 81 Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0073008 0031946 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000700 0000268

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 155567 153898 Total Internal Demand (MW) 32629 32339 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 6 + 6 Net Internal Demand (MW) 31759 31469 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 39419 38558 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 36628 35786 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0073 0032 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0001 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 241 225 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 153 137

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 60708462 4997912227 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0191308 7445002

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 53 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 166111 180493 Total Internal Demand (MW) 34905 37928 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 6 + 6 Net Internal Demand (MW) 34035 37057 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 38558 38558 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 35786 35786 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 60708 4997912 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0365 27690 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0191 7445 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 133 41 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 51 -34

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 54 Final Report

Appendix D Demand and Capacity ndash Ontario

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 133033 132435

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 21315 22085 21163 22098 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 20129 19936 19985 19948 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 22239 24472 22080 24486

Other Demand Factors 0 0 0 0 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 0 0 0 0 Total Available

Net Internal Demand 21315 22085 21163 22098

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 29836 27509 28010 26631

Coal Petroleum 2107 2107 2107 2107 Gas 8031 7267 8031 7267 Nuclear 11289 11235 9381 10357 Hydro 6300 5888 6322 5888 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 300 300 300 300 Wind 1809 673 1807 673 Solar 0 39 0 39 Other

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 55 Final Report

Unknown

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 28228 25954 26533 25134 Coal 0 0 0 0 Petroleum 2107 2107 2107 2107 Gas 7223 6510 7223 6510 Nuclear 10496 10444 8719 9624 Hydro 6300 5888 6322 5888 Pumped Storage 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 293 293 293 293 Wind 1809 673 1870 673 Solar 0 39 0 39 Other 0 0 0 0 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 246 1041 0 0 Scheduled Outages 246 1041 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal Petroleum Gas 101 104 101 104 Nuclear 70 70 71 71 Hydro 00 00 00 00 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 23 23 23 23 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 28228 25954 26533 25134

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 0 0 0 0 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 56 Final Report

Firm 0 500 0 500 Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1418 1418 1418 1418

Non-Spinning Reserves 1418 1418 1418 1418 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 1498 1262 1493 1262 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 795 533 795 533 Voltage Reductions 490 508 487 508 Public Appeals 213 221 212 221 Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 133033 132435 Total Internal Demand (MW) 22085 22098 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 11 + 11 Net Internal Demand (MW) 22085 22098 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 25968 26131 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 24413 24634 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 176 182 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 105 115

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 2556963 559120090

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 57 Final Report

Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0008545 1150387

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 141238 151328 Total Internal Demand (MW) 23567 25251 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 11 + 11 Net Internal Demand (MW) 23567 25251 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 26131 26131 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 24634 24634 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 2557 559120 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0018 3695 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0009 1150 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 109 204 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 45 -24

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 58 Final Report

Appendix E Demand and Capacity - Quebec

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 192928 189157

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 39057 21227 39737 21556 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 35659 19953 36001 20133 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 42733 22641 43778 23134

Other Demand Factors 0 0 0 0 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 1460 0 1544 0 Total Available 1460 1544

Net Internal Demand 37597 21227 38193 21556

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 42101 34901 42443 35197

Coal Petroleum 436 272 436 272 Gas Nuclear Hydro 40173 34233 40458 34519 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 352 397 403 406 Wind 1140 0 1146 0 Solar Other Unknown

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 59 Final Report

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 41400 34321 41733 34607

Coal 0 0 0 0 Petroleum 408 255 408 254 Gas 0 0 0 0 Nuclear 0 0 0 0 Hydro 39522 33695 39803 33973 Pumped Storage 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 330 371 377 380 Wind 1140 0 1146 0 Solar 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 0 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal Petroleum 64 64 65 65 Gas Nuclear Hydro 16 16 16 16 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 64 64 65 65 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 41400 34321 41733 34607

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 500 0 500 0 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports Firm 716 2036 1316 1110

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 60 Final Report

Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1250 1250 1250 1250

Non-Spinning Reserves 1250 1250 1250 1250 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 250 250 250 250 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 0 0 0 0 Voltage Reductions 250 250 250 250 Public Appeals Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 192928 189157 Total Internal Demand (MW) 39057 39737 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 9 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 37597 38193 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41885 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 41184 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 114 90 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 95 71

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004482 1079363992 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0071871 1368365

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 61 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 196519 204518 Total Internal Demand (MW) 41283 42964 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 10 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 39739 41420 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41627 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 40917 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004 1079364 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0081 5278 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0072 1368 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 48 05 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 30 -12

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 62 Final Report

Appendix F Definitions

Net Energy for Load (GWh) Energy Modeled (Input) Total Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load (Input)

Demand-Side Management ndash Available Sum of DCLM Interruptible Load CPP Load as Cap (from Form A) (Not probabilistic data)

Net Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load - Demand-Side Management ndash Available Capacity Expected on Peak Sum of capacity by type modeled in probabilistic (Input) Net Firm ImportExports Input Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) Capacity Expected on Peak + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Weighted average forced outage Input based on weighted EFOR by Area Operable Capacity Resources Sum of capacity expected on peak weighted average forced outage rate by type Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) Operable Capacity Resources + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) Result (Input) Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) Result (Input) Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () Forecast Capacity ResourcesNet Internal Demand ndash 1 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () Forecast Operable Capacity Resources Net Internal Demand ndash 1

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 63 Final Report

Appendix G Monthly Results

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0281 0011 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0011 0003 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0022 0006 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0062 0020 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 1184 0066 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0093 0038 0002 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0013 0005 0001 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0014 0004 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 64 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0020 0008 0004 0004 0001 0016 0007 0001 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0126 0061 0036 0035 0008 0177 0081 0011 0004 0003 0000 Aug 20 0000 0170 0100 0066 0066 0018 0084 0039 0009 0004 0003 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0039 0017 0009 0009 0001 0099 0046 0008 0002 0001 0000 Jul 22 0000 0053 0015 0006 0006 0001 0191 0066 0010 0002 0001 0000 Aug 22 0000 0109 0053 0029 0029 0005 0143 0042 0008 0002 0001 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 65 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0017 0009 0002 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0094 0013 0001 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0033 0004 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0154 0026 0003 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0133 0025 0004 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 66 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 534 01 00 00 00 00 00 04 01 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 02 00 00 00 Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 26 08 00 00 00

Jan 22 5150 143 07 01 00 00 00 58 20 01 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 04 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 06 02 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 67 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 20 00 131 45 22 22 03

47 14 03 01 00 00

Jul 20 00 1003 397 208 207 34

695 176 28 07 05 00

Aug 20 00 1640 796 459 458 89

366 119 35 11 09 00

Sep 20 00 02 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 22 00 292 100 47 46 05

356 111 21 05 03 00

Jul 22 00 360 75 29 29 03

819 166 22 04 03 00

Aug 22 00 933 361 174 170 19

736 135 24 05 03 00

Sep 22 00 01 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 68 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 20 02 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 412 60 04 00 00 00 Aug 20 168 22 01 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 03 01 00 00 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 810 143 12 01 00 00 Aug 22 872 151 17 01 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 69 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 6800 1193 0659 0419 0082 0072 2452 1384 0608 0093 0004 0004 Feb 13 0276 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0425 0307 0162 0025 0002 0002 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0027 0027 0012 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0198 0198 0077 0004 0000 0000

Jan 23 25577 8034 5143 3763 1417 1367 20970 1390 8337 3131 0373 0370 Feb 23 2206 0401 0188 0098 0001 0001 8255 7122 4599 1179 0125 0125 Mar 23 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0455 0455 0209 0019 0001 0001 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0004 0004 0001 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0145 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 2410 2383 1206 0146 0013 0013

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 70 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0480 0366 0192 0136 0134 0066 1794 1086 0550 0257 0223 0059 Jul 13 1090 0595 0295 0211 0206 0087 3470 1914 0866 0382 0329 0081 Aug 13 1414 1042 0592 0405 0393 0183 2520 1246 0583 0279 0244 0051 Sep 13 0022 0020 0007 0003 0003 0000 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 2158 1914 1449 1232 1223 0686 11327 8482 6147 4024 3772 1983 Jul 23 4880 4228 2975 2345 2232 1011 22882 1640 1132 7462 6937 3328 Aug 23 5764 4995 3535 2966 2831 1607 16530 1132 7842 5252 4936 2134 Sep 23 0326 0226 0119 0091 0090 0052 0321 0075 0029 0013 0012 0001 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 71 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc Jan 13 0184 0078 0031 0014 0004 0003

Feb 13 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 13 0009 0007 0005 0002 0000 0000

May 13 0002 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jul 13 1084 0317 0107 0048 0014 0003

Aug 13 1034 0513 0204 0084 0020 0003

Sep 13 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Oct 13 0009 0006 0004 0002 0000 0000

Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 3359 1851 0990 0513 0222 0162

Feb 23 0173 0066 0015 0003 0000 0000

Mar 23 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 23 0427 0369 0295 0217 0133 0051

May 23 0202 0143 0067 0020 0003 0001

Jun 23 0009 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jul 23 5457 3647 2468 1735 0984 0425

Aug 23 5383 3908 2596 1843 0882 0363

Sep 23 0311 0172 0059 0018 0004 0000

Oct 23 0239 0195 0137 0082 0034 0016

Nov 23 0498 0460 0401 0306 0198 0132

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 72 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 49199 8644 3784 2030 188 160 3125 2058 611 86 02 02 Feb 13 533 01 00 00 00 00 371 245 120 15 01 01 Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 14 14 05 00 00 00 Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 102 102 39 02 00 00

Jan 23 27107 8184 4667 3224 11215 1079 47773 3730 1673 5636 373 363 Feb 23 14134 2090 637 228 03 02 11992 9750 5283 1208 82 81 Mar 23 01 00 00 00 00 00 281 281 122 09 00 00 Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Aug 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 03 03 00 00 00 00 Sep 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Dec 23 216 00 00 00 00 00 1680 1660 809 99 08 08

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 73 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

New England New York CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 13 4808 4409 2517 1799 1786 698 12568 6175 2756 1181 1011 187

Jul 13 10074 7005 3657 2415 2356 701 25985 1037 4083 1629 1362 229

Aug 13 15213 1354 7682 5342 5265 2122 21464 8156 3465 1601 1398 191

Sep 13 124 118 37 16 16 02 14 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 00 00 00 00

Feb 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 23 38630 3769 2652 2079 20729 9602 142999 8982 5704 35408 32707 1305

Jul 23 75805 6813 4354 3217 31753 1353 292936 16983 10283 62175 56818 2079

Aug 23 10065 9661 6862 5405 53336 2715 237645 13435 8290 52673 48853 16148

Sep 23 3087 2801 1678 1221 1212 460 2017 453 153 57 48 02

Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 01 00 00 00

Dec 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 74 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Ontario CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 252 121 40 11 03 02

Feb 13 02 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 03 02 01 00 00 00

May 13 09 05 01 00 00 00

Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jul 13 10319 2982 976 359 75 12

Aug 13 8851 3834 1446 517 85 12

Sep 13 11 02 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 10 06 02 01 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 8279 4839 2027 673 238 154

Feb 23 312 122 25 03 00 00

Mar 23 02 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 272 219 161 91 37 10

May 23 1103 756 334 93 16 06

Jun 23 36 11 02 00 00 00

Jul 23 84551 53152 33941 21124 8344 3101

Aug 23 69062 49778 31530 18895 6344 2266

Sep 23 1940 1081 386 107 18 01

Oct 23 512 348 158 49 12 04

Nov 23 391 336 264 169 92 49

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 51 Final Report

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 40188 37635 39321 36616

Coal 1001 979 1001 979 Petroleum 9203 8465 9203 8465 Gas 18337 17826 19469 17826 Nuclear 5425 4401 3361 3364 Hydro 3284 3313 3284 3313 Pumped Storage 1410 1409 1410 1409 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 329 331 352 350 Wind 632 394 674 394 Solar 1 27 1 27 Other (Run of River) 567 490 567 490 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 0 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal 141 141 141 141 Petroleum 166 166 166 166 Gas 58 58 58 58 Nuclear 31 24 26 26 Hydro 10 10 10 10 Pumped Storage 41 41 41 41 Geothermal 00 00 00 00 Biomass 45 45 45 45 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar 00 00 00 00 Other 00 00 00 00 Unknown 00 00 00 00

Operable Capacity Resources 37184 34843 36328 33843

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 700 1785 1219 1942 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports Firm 0 0 0 0

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 52 Final Report

Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1965 1965 1965 1965

Non-Spinning Reserves 1310 1310 1310 1310 Spinning Reserves 655 655 655 655 Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 491 597 491 597 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load Voltage Reductions 410 516 410 516 Public Appeals 81 81 81 81 Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0073008 0031946 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000700 0000268

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 155567 153898 Total Internal Demand (MW) 32629 32339 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 6 + 6 Net Internal Demand (MW) 31759 31469 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 39419 38558 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 36628 35786 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0073 0032 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0001 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 241 225 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 153 137

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 60708462 4997912227 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0191308 7445002

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 53 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 166111 180493 Total Internal Demand (MW) 34905 37928 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 6 + 6 Net Internal Demand (MW) 34035 37057 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 38558 38558 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 35786 35786 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 60708 4997912 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0365 27690 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0191 7445 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 133 41 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 51 -34

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 54 Final Report

Appendix D Demand and Capacity ndash Ontario

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 133033 132435

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 21315 22085 21163 22098 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 20129 19936 19985 19948 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 22239 24472 22080 24486

Other Demand Factors 0 0 0 0 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 0 0 0 0 Total Available

Net Internal Demand 21315 22085 21163 22098

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 29836 27509 28010 26631

Coal Petroleum 2107 2107 2107 2107 Gas 8031 7267 8031 7267 Nuclear 11289 11235 9381 10357 Hydro 6300 5888 6322 5888 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 300 300 300 300 Wind 1809 673 1807 673 Solar 0 39 0 39 Other

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 55 Final Report

Unknown

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 28228 25954 26533 25134 Coal 0 0 0 0 Petroleum 2107 2107 2107 2107 Gas 7223 6510 7223 6510 Nuclear 10496 10444 8719 9624 Hydro 6300 5888 6322 5888 Pumped Storage 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 293 293 293 293 Wind 1809 673 1870 673 Solar 0 39 0 39 Other 0 0 0 0 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 246 1041 0 0 Scheduled Outages 246 1041 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal Petroleum Gas 101 104 101 104 Nuclear 70 70 71 71 Hydro 00 00 00 00 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 23 23 23 23 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 28228 25954 26533 25134

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 0 0 0 0 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 56 Final Report

Firm 0 500 0 500 Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1418 1418 1418 1418

Non-Spinning Reserves 1418 1418 1418 1418 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 1498 1262 1493 1262 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 795 533 795 533 Voltage Reductions 490 508 487 508 Public Appeals 213 221 212 221 Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 133033 132435 Total Internal Demand (MW) 22085 22098 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 11 + 11 Net Internal Demand (MW) 22085 22098 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 25968 26131 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 24413 24634 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 176 182 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 105 115

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 2556963 559120090

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 57 Final Report

Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0008545 1150387

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 141238 151328 Total Internal Demand (MW) 23567 25251 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 11 + 11 Net Internal Demand (MW) 23567 25251 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 26131 26131 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 24634 24634 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 2557 559120 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0018 3695 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0009 1150 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 109 204 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 45 -24

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 58 Final Report

Appendix E Demand and Capacity - Quebec

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 192928 189157

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 39057 21227 39737 21556 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 35659 19953 36001 20133 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 42733 22641 43778 23134

Other Demand Factors 0 0 0 0 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 1460 0 1544 0 Total Available 1460 1544

Net Internal Demand 37597 21227 38193 21556

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 42101 34901 42443 35197

Coal Petroleum 436 272 436 272 Gas Nuclear Hydro 40173 34233 40458 34519 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 352 397 403 406 Wind 1140 0 1146 0 Solar Other Unknown

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 59 Final Report

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 41400 34321 41733 34607

Coal 0 0 0 0 Petroleum 408 255 408 254 Gas 0 0 0 0 Nuclear 0 0 0 0 Hydro 39522 33695 39803 33973 Pumped Storage 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 330 371 377 380 Wind 1140 0 1146 0 Solar 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 0 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal Petroleum 64 64 65 65 Gas Nuclear Hydro 16 16 16 16 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 64 64 65 65 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 41400 34321 41733 34607

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 500 0 500 0 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports Firm 716 2036 1316 1110

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 60 Final Report

Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1250 1250 1250 1250

Non-Spinning Reserves 1250 1250 1250 1250 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 250 250 250 250 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 0 0 0 0 Voltage Reductions 250 250 250 250 Public Appeals Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 192928 189157 Total Internal Demand (MW) 39057 39737 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 9 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 37597 38193 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41885 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 41184 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 114 90 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 95 71

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004482 1079363992 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0071871 1368365

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 61 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 196519 204518 Total Internal Demand (MW) 41283 42964 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 10 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 39739 41420 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41627 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 40917 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004 1079364 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0081 5278 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0072 1368 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 48 05 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 30 -12

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 62 Final Report

Appendix F Definitions

Net Energy for Load (GWh) Energy Modeled (Input) Total Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load (Input)

Demand-Side Management ndash Available Sum of DCLM Interruptible Load CPP Load as Cap (from Form A) (Not probabilistic data)

Net Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load - Demand-Side Management ndash Available Capacity Expected on Peak Sum of capacity by type modeled in probabilistic (Input) Net Firm ImportExports Input Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) Capacity Expected on Peak + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Weighted average forced outage Input based on weighted EFOR by Area Operable Capacity Resources Sum of capacity expected on peak weighted average forced outage rate by type Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) Operable Capacity Resources + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) Result (Input) Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) Result (Input) Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () Forecast Capacity ResourcesNet Internal Demand ndash 1 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () Forecast Operable Capacity Resources Net Internal Demand ndash 1

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 63 Final Report

Appendix G Monthly Results

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0281 0011 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0011 0003 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0022 0006 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0062 0020 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 1184 0066 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0093 0038 0002 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0013 0005 0001 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0014 0004 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 64 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0020 0008 0004 0004 0001 0016 0007 0001 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0126 0061 0036 0035 0008 0177 0081 0011 0004 0003 0000 Aug 20 0000 0170 0100 0066 0066 0018 0084 0039 0009 0004 0003 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0039 0017 0009 0009 0001 0099 0046 0008 0002 0001 0000 Jul 22 0000 0053 0015 0006 0006 0001 0191 0066 0010 0002 0001 0000 Aug 22 0000 0109 0053 0029 0029 0005 0143 0042 0008 0002 0001 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 65 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0017 0009 0002 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0094 0013 0001 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0033 0004 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0154 0026 0003 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0133 0025 0004 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 66 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 534 01 00 00 00 00 00 04 01 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 02 00 00 00 Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 26 08 00 00 00

Jan 22 5150 143 07 01 00 00 00 58 20 01 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 04 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 06 02 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 67 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 20 00 131 45 22 22 03

47 14 03 01 00 00

Jul 20 00 1003 397 208 207 34

695 176 28 07 05 00

Aug 20 00 1640 796 459 458 89

366 119 35 11 09 00

Sep 20 00 02 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 22 00 292 100 47 46 05

356 111 21 05 03 00

Jul 22 00 360 75 29 29 03

819 166 22 04 03 00

Aug 22 00 933 361 174 170 19

736 135 24 05 03 00

Sep 22 00 01 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 68 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 20 02 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 412 60 04 00 00 00 Aug 20 168 22 01 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 03 01 00 00 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 810 143 12 01 00 00 Aug 22 872 151 17 01 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 69 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 6800 1193 0659 0419 0082 0072 2452 1384 0608 0093 0004 0004 Feb 13 0276 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0425 0307 0162 0025 0002 0002 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0027 0027 0012 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0198 0198 0077 0004 0000 0000

Jan 23 25577 8034 5143 3763 1417 1367 20970 1390 8337 3131 0373 0370 Feb 23 2206 0401 0188 0098 0001 0001 8255 7122 4599 1179 0125 0125 Mar 23 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0455 0455 0209 0019 0001 0001 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0004 0004 0001 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0145 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 2410 2383 1206 0146 0013 0013

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 70 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0480 0366 0192 0136 0134 0066 1794 1086 0550 0257 0223 0059 Jul 13 1090 0595 0295 0211 0206 0087 3470 1914 0866 0382 0329 0081 Aug 13 1414 1042 0592 0405 0393 0183 2520 1246 0583 0279 0244 0051 Sep 13 0022 0020 0007 0003 0003 0000 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 2158 1914 1449 1232 1223 0686 11327 8482 6147 4024 3772 1983 Jul 23 4880 4228 2975 2345 2232 1011 22882 1640 1132 7462 6937 3328 Aug 23 5764 4995 3535 2966 2831 1607 16530 1132 7842 5252 4936 2134 Sep 23 0326 0226 0119 0091 0090 0052 0321 0075 0029 0013 0012 0001 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 71 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc Jan 13 0184 0078 0031 0014 0004 0003

Feb 13 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 13 0009 0007 0005 0002 0000 0000

May 13 0002 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jul 13 1084 0317 0107 0048 0014 0003

Aug 13 1034 0513 0204 0084 0020 0003

Sep 13 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Oct 13 0009 0006 0004 0002 0000 0000

Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 3359 1851 0990 0513 0222 0162

Feb 23 0173 0066 0015 0003 0000 0000

Mar 23 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 23 0427 0369 0295 0217 0133 0051

May 23 0202 0143 0067 0020 0003 0001

Jun 23 0009 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jul 23 5457 3647 2468 1735 0984 0425

Aug 23 5383 3908 2596 1843 0882 0363

Sep 23 0311 0172 0059 0018 0004 0000

Oct 23 0239 0195 0137 0082 0034 0016

Nov 23 0498 0460 0401 0306 0198 0132

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 72 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 49199 8644 3784 2030 188 160 3125 2058 611 86 02 02 Feb 13 533 01 00 00 00 00 371 245 120 15 01 01 Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 14 14 05 00 00 00 Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 102 102 39 02 00 00

Jan 23 27107 8184 4667 3224 11215 1079 47773 3730 1673 5636 373 363 Feb 23 14134 2090 637 228 03 02 11992 9750 5283 1208 82 81 Mar 23 01 00 00 00 00 00 281 281 122 09 00 00 Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Aug 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 03 03 00 00 00 00 Sep 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Dec 23 216 00 00 00 00 00 1680 1660 809 99 08 08

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 73 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

New England New York CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 13 4808 4409 2517 1799 1786 698 12568 6175 2756 1181 1011 187

Jul 13 10074 7005 3657 2415 2356 701 25985 1037 4083 1629 1362 229

Aug 13 15213 1354 7682 5342 5265 2122 21464 8156 3465 1601 1398 191

Sep 13 124 118 37 16 16 02 14 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 00 00 00 00

Feb 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 23 38630 3769 2652 2079 20729 9602 142999 8982 5704 35408 32707 1305

Jul 23 75805 6813 4354 3217 31753 1353 292936 16983 10283 62175 56818 2079

Aug 23 10065 9661 6862 5405 53336 2715 237645 13435 8290 52673 48853 16148

Sep 23 3087 2801 1678 1221 1212 460 2017 453 153 57 48 02

Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 01 00 00 00

Dec 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 74 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Ontario CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 252 121 40 11 03 02

Feb 13 02 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 03 02 01 00 00 00

May 13 09 05 01 00 00 00

Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jul 13 10319 2982 976 359 75 12

Aug 13 8851 3834 1446 517 85 12

Sep 13 11 02 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 10 06 02 01 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 8279 4839 2027 673 238 154

Feb 23 312 122 25 03 00 00

Mar 23 02 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 272 219 161 91 37 10

May 23 1103 756 334 93 16 06

Jun 23 36 11 02 00 00 00

Jul 23 84551 53152 33941 21124 8344 3101

Aug 23 69062 49778 31530 18895 6344 2266

Sep 23 1940 1081 386 107 18 01

Oct 23 512 348 158 49 12 04

Nov 23 391 336 264 169 92 49

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 52 Final Report

Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1965 1965 1965 1965

Non-Spinning Reserves 1310 1310 1310 1310 Spinning Reserves 655 655 655 655 Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 491 597 491 597 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load Voltage Reductions 410 516 410 516 Public Appeals 81 81 81 81 Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0073008 0031946 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000700 0000268

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 155567 153898 Total Internal Demand (MW) 32629 32339 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 6 + 6 Net Internal Demand (MW) 31759 31469 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 39419 38558 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 36628 35786 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0073 0032 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0001 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 241 225 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 153 137

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 60708462 4997912227 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0191308 7445002

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 53 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 166111 180493 Total Internal Demand (MW) 34905 37928 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 6 + 6 Net Internal Demand (MW) 34035 37057 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 38558 38558 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 35786 35786 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 60708 4997912 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0365 27690 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0191 7445 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 133 41 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 51 -34

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 54 Final Report

Appendix D Demand and Capacity ndash Ontario

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 133033 132435

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 21315 22085 21163 22098 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 20129 19936 19985 19948 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 22239 24472 22080 24486

Other Demand Factors 0 0 0 0 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 0 0 0 0 Total Available

Net Internal Demand 21315 22085 21163 22098

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 29836 27509 28010 26631

Coal Petroleum 2107 2107 2107 2107 Gas 8031 7267 8031 7267 Nuclear 11289 11235 9381 10357 Hydro 6300 5888 6322 5888 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 300 300 300 300 Wind 1809 673 1807 673 Solar 0 39 0 39 Other

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 55 Final Report

Unknown

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 28228 25954 26533 25134 Coal 0 0 0 0 Petroleum 2107 2107 2107 2107 Gas 7223 6510 7223 6510 Nuclear 10496 10444 8719 9624 Hydro 6300 5888 6322 5888 Pumped Storage 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 293 293 293 293 Wind 1809 673 1870 673 Solar 0 39 0 39 Other 0 0 0 0 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 246 1041 0 0 Scheduled Outages 246 1041 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal Petroleum Gas 101 104 101 104 Nuclear 70 70 71 71 Hydro 00 00 00 00 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 23 23 23 23 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 28228 25954 26533 25134

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 0 0 0 0 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 56 Final Report

Firm 0 500 0 500 Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1418 1418 1418 1418

Non-Spinning Reserves 1418 1418 1418 1418 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 1498 1262 1493 1262 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 795 533 795 533 Voltage Reductions 490 508 487 508 Public Appeals 213 221 212 221 Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 133033 132435 Total Internal Demand (MW) 22085 22098 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 11 + 11 Net Internal Demand (MW) 22085 22098 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 25968 26131 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 24413 24634 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 176 182 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 105 115

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 2556963 559120090

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 57 Final Report

Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0008545 1150387

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 141238 151328 Total Internal Demand (MW) 23567 25251 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 11 + 11 Net Internal Demand (MW) 23567 25251 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 26131 26131 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 24634 24634 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 2557 559120 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0018 3695 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0009 1150 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 109 204 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 45 -24

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 58 Final Report

Appendix E Demand and Capacity - Quebec

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 192928 189157

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 39057 21227 39737 21556 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 35659 19953 36001 20133 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 42733 22641 43778 23134

Other Demand Factors 0 0 0 0 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 1460 0 1544 0 Total Available 1460 1544

Net Internal Demand 37597 21227 38193 21556

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 42101 34901 42443 35197

Coal Petroleum 436 272 436 272 Gas Nuclear Hydro 40173 34233 40458 34519 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 352 397 403 406 Wind 1140 0 1146 0 Solar Other Unknown

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 59 Final Report

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 41400 34321 41733 34607

Coal 0 0 0 0 Petroleum 408 255 408 254 Gas 0 0 0 0 Nuclear 0 0 0 0 Hydro 39522 33695 39803 33973 Pumped Storage 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 330 371 377 380 Wind 1140 0 1146 0 Solar 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 0 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal Petroleum 64 64 65 65 Gas Nuclear Hydro 16 16 16 16 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 64 64 65 65 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 41400 34321 41733 34607

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 500 0 500 0 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports Firm 716 2036 1316 1110

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 60 Final Report

Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1250 1250 1250 1250

Non-Spinning Reserves 1250 1250 1250 1250 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 250 250 250 250 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 0 0 0 0 Voltage Reductions 250 250 250 250 Public Appeals Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 192928 189157 Total Internal Demand (MW) 39057 39737 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 9 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 37597 38193 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41885 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 41184 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 114 90 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 95 71

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004482 1079363992 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0071871 1368365

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 61 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 196519 204518 Total Internal Demand (MW) 41283 42964 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 10 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 39739 41420 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41627 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 40917 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004 1079364 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0081 5278 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0072 1368 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 48 05 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 30 -12

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 62 Final Report

Appendix F Definitions

Net Energy for Load (GWh) Energy Modeled (Input) Total Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load (Input)

Demand-Side Management ndash Available Sum of DCLM Interruptible Load CPP Load as Cap (from Form A) (Not probabilistic data)

Net Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load - Demand-Side Management ndash Available Capacity Expected on Peak Sum of capacity by type modeled in probabilistic (Input) Net Firm ImportExports Input Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) Capacity Expected on Peak + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Weighted average forced outage Input based on weighted EFOR by Area Operable Capacity Resources Sum of capacity expected on peak weighted average forced outage rate by type Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) Operable Capacity Resources + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) Result (Input) Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) Result (Input) Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () Forecast Capacity ResourcesNet Internal Demand ndash 1 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () Forecast Operable Capacity Resources Net Internal Demand ndash 1

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 63 Final Report

Appendix G Monthly Results

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0281 0011 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0011 0003 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0022 0006 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0062 0020 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 1184 0066 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0093 0038 0002 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0013 0005 0001 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0014 0004 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 64 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0020 0008 0004 0004 0001 0016 0007 0001 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0126 0061 0036 0035 0008 0177 0081 0011 0004 0003 0000 Aug 20 0000 0170 0100 0066 0066 0018 0084 0039 0009 0004 0003 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0039 0017 0009 0009 0001 0099 0046 0008 0002 0001 0000 Jul 22 0000 0053 0015 0006 0006 0001 0191 0066 0010 0002 0001 0000 Aug 22 0000 0109 0053 0029 0029 0005 0143 0042 0008 0002 0001 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 65 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0017 0009 0002 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0094 0013 0001 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0033 0004 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0154 0026 0003 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0133 0025 0004 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 66 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 534 01 00 00 00 00 00 04 01 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 02 00 00 00 Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 26 08 00 00 00

Jan 22 5150 143 07 01 00 00 00 58 20 01 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 04 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 06 02 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 67 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 20 00 131 45 22 22 03

47 14 03 01 00 00

Jul 20 00 1003 397 208 207 34

695 176 28 07 05 00

Aug 20 00 1640 796 459 458 89

366 119 35 11 09 00

Sep 20 00 02 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 22 00 292 100 47 46 05

356 111 21 05 03 00

Jul 22 00 360 75 29 29 03

819 166 22 04 03 00

Aug 22 00 933 361 174 170 19

736 135 24 05 03 00

Sep 22 00 01 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 68 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 20 02 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 412 60 04 00 00 00 Aug 20 168 22 01 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 03 01 00 00 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 810 143 12 01 00 00 Aug 22 872 151 17 01 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 69 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 6800 1193 0659 0419 0082 0072 2452 1384 0608 0093 0004 0004 Feb 13 0276 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0425 0307 0162 0025 0002 0002 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0027 0027 0012 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0198 0198 0077 0004 0000 0000

Jan 23 25577 8034 5143 3763 1417 1367 20970 1390 8337 3131 0373 0370 Feb 23 2206 0401 0188 0098 0001 0001 8255 7122 4599 1179 0125 0125 Mar 23 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0455 0455 0209 0019 0001 0001 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0004 0004 0001 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0145 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 2410 2383 1206 0146 0013 0013

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 70 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0480 0366 0192 0136 0134 0066 1794 1086 0550 0257 0223 0059 Jul 13 1090 0595 0295 0211 0206 0087 3470 1914 0866 0382 0329 0081 Aug 13 1414 1042 0592 0405 0393 0183 2520 1246 0583 0279 0244 0051 Sep 13 0022 0020 0007 0003 0003 0000 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 2158 1914 1449 1232 1223 0686 11327 8482 6147 4024 3772 1983 Jul 23 4880 4228 2975 2345 2232 1011 22882 1640 1132 7462 6937 3328 Aug 23 5764 4995 3535 2966 2831 1607 16530 1132 7842 5252 4936 2134 Sep 23 0326 0226 0119 0091 0090 0052 0321 0075 0029 0013 0012 0001 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 71 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc Jan 13 0184 0078 0031 0014 0004 0003

Feb 13 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 13 0009 0007 0005 0002 0000 0000

May 13 0002 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jul 13 1084 0317 0107 0048 0014 0003

Aug 13 1034 0513 0204 0084 0020 0003

Sep 13 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Oct 13 0009 0006 0004 0002 0000 0000

Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 3359 1851 0990 0513 0222 0162

Feb 23 0173 0066 0015 0003 0000 0000

Mar 23 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 23 0427 0369 0295 0217 0133 0051

May 23 0202 0143 0067 0020 0003 0001

Jun 23 0009 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jul 23 5457 3647 2468 1735 0984 0425

Aug 23 5383 3908 2596 1843 0882 0363

Sep 23 0311 0172 0059 0018 0004 0000

Oct 23 0239 0195 0137 0082 0034 0016

Nov 23 0498 0460 0401 0306 0198 0132

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 72 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 49199 8644 3784 2030 188 160 3125 2058 611 86 02 02 Feb 13 533 01 00 00 00 00 371 245 120 15 01 01 Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 14 14 05 00 00 00 Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 102 102 39 02 00 00

Jan 23 27107 8184 4667 3224 11215 1079 47773 3730 1673 5636 373 363 Feb 23 14134 2090 637 228 03 02 11992 9750 5283 1208 82 81 Mar 23 01 00 00 00 00 00 281 281 122 09 00 00 Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Aug 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 03 03 00 00 00 00 Sep 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Dec 23 216 00 00 00 00 00 1680 1660 809 99 08 08

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 73 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

New England New York CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 13 4808 4409 2517 1799 1786 698 12568 6175 2756 1181 1011 187

Jul 13 10074 7005 3657 2415 2356 701 25985 1037 4083 1629 1362 229

Aug 13 15213 1354 7682 5342 5265 2122 21464 8156 3465 1601 1398 191

Sep 13 124 118 37 16 16 02 14 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 00 00 00 00

Feb 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 23 38630 3769 2652 2079 20729 9602 142999 8982 5704 35408 32707 1305

Jul 23 75805 6813 4354 3217 31753 1353 292936 16983 10283 62175 56818 2079

Aug 23 10065 9661 6862 5405 53336 2715 237645 13435 8290 52673 48853 16148

Sep 23 3087 2801 1678 1221 1212 460 2017 453 153 57 48 02

Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 01 00 00 00

Dec 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 74 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Ontario CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 252 121 40 11 03 02

Feb 13 02 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 03 02 01 00 00 00

May 13 09 05 01 00 00 00

Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jul 13 10319 2982 976 359 75 12

Aug 13 8851 3834 1446 517 85 12

Sep 13 11 02 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 10 06 02 01 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 8279 4839 2027 673 238 154

Feb 23 312 122 25 03 00 00

Mar 23 02 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 272 219 161 91 37 10

May 23 1103 756 334 93 16 06

Jun 23 36 11 02 00 00 00

Jul 23 84551 53152 33941 21124 8344 3101

Aug 23 69062 49778 31530 18895 6344 2266

Sep 23 1940 1081 386 107 18 01

Oct 23 512 348 158 49 12 04

Nov 23 391 336 264 169 92 49

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 53 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 166111 180493 Total Internal Demand (MW) 34905 37928 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 6 + 6 Net Internal Demand (MW) 34035 37057 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 38558 38558 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 35786 35786 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 60708 4997912 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0365 27690 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0191 7445 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 133 41 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 51 -34

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 54 Final Report

Appendix D Demand and Capacity ndash Ontario

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 133033 132435

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 21315 22085 21163 22098 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 20129 19936 19985 19948 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 22239 24472 22080 24486

Other Demand Factors 0 0 0 0 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 0 0 0 0 Total Available

Net Internal Demand 21315 22085 21163 22098

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 29836 27509 28010 26631

Coal Petroleum 2107 2107 2107 2107 Gas 8031 7267 8031 7267 Nuclear 11289 11235 9381 10357 Hydro 6300 5888 6322 5888 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 300 300 300 300 Wind 1809 673 1807 673 Solar 0 39 0 39 Other

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 55 Final Report

Unknown

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 28228 25954 26533 25134 Coal 0 0 0 0 Petroleum 2107 2107 2107 2107 Gas 7223 6510 7223 6510 Nuclear 10496 10444 8719 9624 Hydro 6300 5888 6322 5888 Pumped Storage 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 293 293 293 293 Wind 1809 673 1870 673 Solar 0 39 0 39 Other 0 0 0 0 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 246 1041 0 0 Scheduled Outages 246 1041 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal Petroleum Gas 101 104 101 104 Nuclear 70 70 71 71 Hydro 00 00 00 00 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 23 23 23 23 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 28228 25954 26533 25134

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 0 0 0 0 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 56 Final Report

Firm 0 500 0 500 Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1418 1418 1418 1418

Non-Spinning Reserves 1418 1418 1418 1418 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 1498 1262 1493 1262 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 795 533 795 533 Voltage Reductions 490 508 487 508 Public Appeals 213 221 212 221 Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 133033 132435 Total Internal Demand (MW) 22085 22098 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 11 + 11 Net Internal Demand (MW) 22085 22098 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 25968 26131 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 24413 24634 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 176 182 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 105 115

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 2556963 559120090

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 57 Final Report

Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0008545 1150387

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 141238 151328 Total Internal Demand (MW) 23567 25251 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 11 + 11 Net Internal Demand (MW) 23567 25251 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 26131 26131 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 24634 24634 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 2557 559120 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0018 3695 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0009 1150 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 109 204 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 45 -24

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 58 Final Report

Appendix E Demand and Capacity - Quebec

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 192928 189157

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 39057 21227 39737 21556 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 35659 19953 36001 20133 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 42733 22641 43778 23134

Other Demand Factors 0 0 0 0 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 1460 0 1544 0 Total Available 1460 1544

Net Internal Demand 37597 21227 38193 21556

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 42101 34901 42443 35197

Coal Petroleum 436 272 436 272 Gas Nuclear Hydro 40173 34233 40458 34519 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 352 397 403 406 Wind 1140 0 1146 0 Solar Other Unknown

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 59 Final Report

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 41400 34321 41733 34607

Coal 0 0 0 0 Petroleum 408 255 408 254 Gas 0 0 0 0 Nuclear 0 0 0 0 Hydro 39522 33695 39803 33973 Pumped Storage 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 330 371 377 380 Wind 1140 0 1146 0 Solar 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 0 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal Petroleum 64 64 65 65 Gas Nuclear Hydro 16 16 16 16 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 64 64 65 65 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 41400 34321 41733 34607

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 500 0 500 0 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports Firm 716 2036 1316 1110

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 60 Final Report

Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1250 1250 1250 1250

Non-Spinning Reserves 1250 1250 1250 1250 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 250 250 250 250 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 0 0 0 0 Voltage Reductions 250 250 250 250 Public Appeals Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 192928 189157 Total Internal Demand (MW) 39057 39737 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 9 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 37597 38193 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41885 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 41184 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 114 90 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 95 71

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004482 1079363992 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0071871 1368365

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 61 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 196519 204518 Total Internal Demand (MW) 41283 42964 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 10 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 39739 41420 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41627 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 40917 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004 1079364 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0081 5278 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0072 1368 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 48 05 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 30 -12

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 62 Final Report

Appendix F Definitions

Net Energy for Load (GWh) Energy Modeled (Input) Total Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load (Input)

Demand-Side Management ndash Available Sum of DCLM Interruptible Load CPP Load as Cap (from Form A) (Not probabilistic data)

Net Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load - Demand-Side Management ndash Available Capacity Expected on Peak Sum of capacity by type modeled in probabilistic (Input) Net Firm ImportExports Input Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) Capacity Expected on Peak + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Weighted average forced outage Input based on weighted EFOR by Area Operable Capacity Resources Sum of capacity expected on peak weighted average forced outage rate by type Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) Operable Capacity Resources + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) Result (Input) Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) Result (Input) Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () Forecast Capacity ResourcesNet Internal Demand ndash 1 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () Forecast Operable Capacity Resources Net Internal Demand ndash 1

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 63 Final Report

Appendix G Monthly Results

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0281 0011 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0011 0003 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0022 0006 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0062 0020 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 1184 0066 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0093 0038 0002 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0013 0005 0001 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0014 0004 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 64 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0020 0008 0004 0004 0001 0016 0007 0001 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0126 0061 0036 0035 0008 0177 0081 0011 0004 0003 0000 Aug 20 0000 0170 0100 0066 0066 0018 0084 0039 0009 0004 0003 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0039 0017 0009 0009 0001 0099 0046 0008 0002 0001 0000 Jul 22 0000 0053 0015 0006 0006 0001 0191 0066 0010 0002 0001 0000 Aug 22 0000 0109 0053 0029 0029 0005 0143 0042 0008 0002 0001 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 65 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0017 0009 0002 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0094 0013 0001 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0033 0004 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0154 0026 0003 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0133 0025 0004 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 66 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 534 01 00 00 00 00 00 04 01 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 02 00 00 00 Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 26 08 00 00 00

Jan 22 5150 143 07 01 00 00 00 58 20 01 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 04 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 06 02 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 67 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 20 00 131 45 22 22 03

47 14 03 01 00 00

Jul 20 00 1003 397 208 207 34

695 176 28 07 05 00

Aug 20 00 1640 796 459 458 89

366 119 35 11 09 00

Sep 20 00 02 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 22 00 292 100 47 46 05

356 111 21 05 03 00

Jul 22 00 360 75 29 29 03

819 166 22 04 03 00

Aug 22 00 933 361 174 170 19

736 135 24 05 03 00

Sep 22 00 01 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 68 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 20 02 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 412 60 04 00 00 00 Aug 20 168 22 01 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 03 01 00 00 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 810 143 12 01 00 00 Aug 22 872 151 17 01 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 69 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 6800 1193 0659 0419 0082 0072 2452 1384 0608 0093 0004 0004 Feb 13 0276 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0425 0307 0162 0025 0002 0002 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0027 0027 0012 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0198 0198 0077 0004 0000 0000

Jan 23 25577 8034 5143 3763 1417 1367 20970 1390 8337 3131 0373 0370 Feb 23 2206 0401 0188 0098 0001 0001 8255 7122 4599 1179 0125 0125 Mar 23 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0455 0455 0209 0019 0001 0001 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0004 0004 0001 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0145 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 2410 2383 1206 0146 0013 0013

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 70 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0480 0366 0192 0136 0134 0066 1794 1086 0550 0257 0223 0059 Jul 13 1090 0595 0295 0211 0206 0087 3470 1914 0866 0382 0329 0081 Aug 13 1414 1042 0592 0405 0393 0183 2520 1246 0583 0279 0244 0051 Sep 13 0022 0020 0007 0003 0003 0000 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 2158 1914 1449 1232 1223 0686 11327 8482 6147 4024 3772 1983 Jul 23 4880 4228 2975 2345 2232 1011 22882 1640 1132 7462 6937 3328 Aug 23 5764 4995 3535 2966 2831 1607 16530 1132 7842 5252 4936 2134 Sep 23 0326 0226 0119 0091 0090 0052 0321 0075 0029 0013 0012 0001 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 71 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc Jan 13 0184 0078 0031 0014 0004 0003

Feb 13 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 13 0009 0007 0005 0002 0000 0000

May 13 0002 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jul 13 1084 0317 0107 0048 0014 0003

Aug 13 1034 0513 0204 0084 0020 0003

Sep 13 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Oct 13 0009 0006 0004 0002 0000 0000

Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 3359 1851 0990 0513 0222 0162

Feb 23 0173 0066 0015 0003 0000 0000

Mar 23 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 23 0427 0369 0295 0217 0133 0051

May 23 0202 0143 0067 0020 0003 0001

Jun 23 0009 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jul 23 5457 3647 2468 1735 0984 0425

Aug 23 5383 3908 2596 1843 0882 0363

Sep 23 0311 0172 0059 0018 0004 0000

Oct 23 0239 0195 0137 0082 0034 0016

Nov 23 0498 0460 0401 0306 0198 0132

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 72 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 49199 8644 3784 2030 188 160 3125 2058 611 86 02 02 Feb 13 533 01 00 00 00 00 371 245 120 15 01 01 Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 14 14 05 00 00 00 Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 102 102 39 02 00 00

Jan 23 27107 8184 4667 3224 11215 1079 47773 3730 1673 5636 373 363 Feb 23 14134 2090 637 228 03 02 11992 9750 5283 1208 82 81 Mar 23 01 00 00 00 00 00 281 281 122 09 00 00 Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Aug 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 03 03 00 00 00 00 Sep 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Dec 23 216 00 00 00 00 00 1680 1660 809 99 08 08

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 73 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

New England New York CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 13 4808 4409 2517 1799 1786 698 12568 6175 2756 1181 1011 187

Jul 13 10074 7005 3657 2415 2356 701 25985 1037 4083 1629 1362 229

Aug 13 15213 1354 7682 5342 5265 2122 21464 8156 3465 1601 1398 191

Sep 13 124 118 37 16 16 02 14 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 00 00 00 00

Feb 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 23 38630 3769 2652 2079 20729 9602 142999 8982 5704 35408 32707 1305

Jul 23 75805 6813 4354 3217 31753 1353 292936 16983 10283 62175 56818 2079

Aug 23 10065 9661 6862 5405 53336 2715 237645 13435 8290 52673 48853 16148

Sep 23 3087 2801 1678 1221 1212 460 2017 453 153 57 48 02

Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 01 00 00 00

Dec 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 74 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Ontario CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 252 121 40 11 03 02

Feb 13 02 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 03 02 01 00 00 00

May 13 09 05 01 00 00 00

Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jul 13 10319 2982 976 359 75 12

Aug 13 8851 3834 1446 517 85 12

Sep 13 11 02 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 10 06 02 01 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 8279 4839 2027 673 238 154

Feb 23 312 122 25 03 00 00

Mar 23 02 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 272 219 161 91 37 10

May 23 1103 756 334 93 16 06

Jun 23 36 11 02 00 00 00

Jul 23 84551 53152 33941 21124 8344 3101

Aug 23 69062 49778 31530 18895 6344 2266

Sep 23 1940 1081 386 107 18 01

Oct 23 512 348 158 49 12 04

Nov 23 391 336 264 169 92 49

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 54 Final Report

Appendix D Demand and Capacity ndash Ontario

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 133033 132435

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 21315 22085 21163 22098 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 20129 19936 19985 19948 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 22239 24472 22080 24486

Other Demand Factors 0 0 0 0 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 0 0 0 0 Total Available

Net Internal Demand 21315 22085 21163 22098

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 29836 27509 28010 26631

Coal Petroleum 2107 2107 2107 2107 Gas 8031 7267 8031 7267 Nuclear 11289 11235 9381 10357 Hydro 6300 5888 6322 5888 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 300 300 300 300 Wind 1809 673 1807 673 Solar 0 39 0 39 Other

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 55 Final Report

Unknown

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 28228 25954 26533 25134 Coal 0 0 0 0 Petroleum 2107 2107 2107 2107 Gas 7223 6510 7223 6510 Nuclear 10496 10444 8719 9624 Hydro 6300 5888 6322 5888 Pumped Storage 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 293 293 293 293 Wind 1809 673 1870 673 Solar 0 39 0 39 Other 0 0 0 0 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 246 1041 0 0 Scheduled Outages 246 1041 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal Petroleum Gas 101 104 101 104 Nuclear 70 70 71 71 Hydro 00 00 00 00 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 23 23 23 23 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 28228 25954 26533 25134

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 0 0 0 0 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 56 Final Report

Firm 0 500 0 500 Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1418 1418 1418 1418

Non-Spinning Reserves 1418 1418 1418 1418 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 1498 1262 1493 1262 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 795 533 795 533 Voltage Reductions 490 508 487 508 Public Appeals 213 221 212 221 Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 133033 132435 Total Internal Demand (MW) 22085 22098 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 11 + 11 Net Internal Demand (MW) 22085 22098 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 25968 26131 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 24413 24634 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 176 182 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 105 115

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 2556963 559120090

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 57 Final Report

Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0008545 1150387

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 141238 151328 Total Internal Demand (MW) 23567 25251 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 11 + 11 Net Internal Demand (MW) 23567 25251 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 26131 26131 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 24634 24634 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 2557 559120 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0018 3695 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0009 1150 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 109 204 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 45 -24

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 58 Final Report

Appendix E Demand and Capacity - Quebec

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 192928 189157

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 39057 21227 39737 21556 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 35659 19953 36001 20133 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 42733 22641 43778 23134

Other Demand Factors 0 0 0 0 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 1460 0 1544 0 Total Available 1460 1544

Net Internal Demand 37597 21227 38193 21556

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 42101 34901 42443 35197

Coal Petroleum 436 272 436 272 Gas Nuclear Hydro 40173 34233 40458 34519 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 352 397 403 406 Wind 1140 0 1146 0 Solar Other Unknown

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 59 Final Report

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 41400 34321 41733 34607

Coal 0 0 0 0 Petroleum 408 255 408 254 Gas 0 0 0 0 Nuclear 0 0 0 0 Hydro 39522 33695 39803 33973 Pumped Storage 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 330 371 377 380 Wind 1140 0 1146 0 Solar 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 0 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal Petroleum 64 64 65 65 Gas Nuclear Hydro 16 16 16 16 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 64 64 65 65 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 41400 34321 41733 34607

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 500 0 500 0 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports Firm 716 2036 1316 1110

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 60 Final Report

Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1250 1250 1250 1250

Non-Spinning Reserves 1250 1250 1250 1250 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 250 250 250 250 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 0 0 0 0 Voltage Reductions 250 250 250 250 Public Appeals Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 192928 189157 Total Internal Demand (MW) 39057 39737 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 9 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 37597 38193 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41885 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 41184 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 114 90 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 95 71

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004482 1079363992 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0071871 1368365

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 61 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 196519 204518 Total Internal Demand (MW) 41283 42964 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 10 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 39739 41420 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41627 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 40917 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004 1079364 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0081 5278 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0072 1368 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 48 05 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 30 -12

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 62 Final Report

Appendix F Definitions

Net Energy for Load (GWh) Energy Modeled (Input) Total Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load (Input)

Demand-Side Management ndash Available Sum of DCLM Interruptible Load CPP Load as Cap (from Form A) (Not probabilistic data)

Net Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load - Demand-Side Management ndash Available Capacity Expected on Peak Sum of capacity by type modeled in probabilistic (Input) Net Firm ImportExports Input Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) Capacity Expected on Peak + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Weighted average forced outage Input based on weighted EFOR by Area Operable Capacity Resources Sum of capacity expected on peak weighted average forced outage rate by type Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) Operable Capacity Resources + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) Result (Input) Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) Result (Input) Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () Forecast Capacity ResourcesNet Internal Demand ndash 1 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () Forecast Operable Capacity Resources Net Internal Demand ndash 1

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 63 Final Report

Appendix G Monthly Results

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0281 0011 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0011 0003 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0022 0006 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0062 0020 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 1184 0066 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0093 0038 0002 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0013 0005 0001 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0014 0004 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 64 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0020 0008 0004 0004 0001 0016 0007 0001 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0126 0061 0036 0035 0008 0177 0081 0011 0004 0003 0000 Aug 20 0000 0170 0100 0066 0066 0018 0084 0039 0009 0004 0003 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0039 0017 0009 0009 0001 0099 0046 0008 0002 0001 0000 Jul 22 0000 0053 0015 0006 0006 0001 0191 0066 0010 0002 0001 0000 Aug 22 0000 0109 0053 0029 0029 0005 0143 0042 0008 0002 0001 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 65 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0017 0009 0002 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0094 0013 0001 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0033 0004 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0154 0026 0003 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0133 0025 0004 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 66 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 534 01 00 00 00 00 00 04 01 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 02 00 00 00 Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 26 08 00 00 00

Jan 22 5150 143 07 01 00 00 00 58 20 01 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 04 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 06 02 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 67 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 20 00 131 45 22 22 03

47 14 03 01 00 00

Jul 20 00 1003 397 208 207 34

695 176 28 07 05 00

Aug 20 00 1640 796 459 458 89

366 119 35 11 09 00

Sep 20 00 02 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 22 00 292 100 47 46 05

356 111 21 05 03 00

Jul 22 00 360 75 29 29 03

819 166 22 04 03 00

Aug 22 00 933 361 174 170 19

736 135 24 05 03 00

Sep 22 00 01 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 68 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 20 02 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 412 60 04 00 00 00 Aug 20 168 22 01 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 03 01 00 00 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 810 143 12 01 00 00 Aug 22 872 151 17 01 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 69 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 6800 1193 0659 0419 0082 0072 2452 1384 0608 0093 0004 0004 Feb 13 0276 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0425 0307 0162 0025 0002 0002 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0027 0027 0012 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0198 0198 0077 0004 0000 0000

Jan 23 25577 8034 5143 3763 1417 1367 20970 1390 8337 3131 0373 0370 Feb 23 2206 0401 0188 0098 0001 0001 8255 7122 4599 1179 0125 0125 Mar 23 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0455 0455 0209 0019 0001 0001 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0004 0004 0001 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0145 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 2410 2383 1206 0146 0013 0013

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 70 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0480 0366 0192 0136 0134 0066 1794 1086 0550 0257 0223 0059 Jul 13 1090 0595 0295 0211 0206 0087 3470 1914 0866 0382 0329 0081 Aug 13 1414 1042 0592 0405 0393 0183 2520 1246 0583 0279 0244 0051 Sep 13 0022 0020 0007 0003 0003 0000 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 2158 1914 1449 1232 1223 0686 11327 8482 6147 4024 3772 1983 Jul 23 4880 4228 2975 2345 2232 1011 22882 1640 1132 7462 6937 3328 Aug 23 5764 4995 3535 2966 2831 1607 16530 1132 7842 5252 4936 2134 Sep 23 0326 0226 0119 0091 0090 0052 0321 0075 0029 0013 0012 0001 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 71 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc Jan 13 0184 0078 0031 0014 0004 0003

Feb 13 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 13 0009 0007 0005 0002 0000 0000

May 13 0002 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jul 13 1084 0317 0107 0048 0014 0003

Aug 13 1034 0513 0204 0084 0020 0003

Sep 13 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Oct 13 0009 0006 0004 0002 0000 0000

Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 3359 1851 0990 0513 0222 0162

Feb 23 0173 0066 0015 0003 0000 0000

Mar 23 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 23 0427 0369 0295 0217 0133 0051

May 23 0202 0143 0067 0020 0003 0001

Jun 23 0009 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jul 23 5457 3647 2468 1735 0984 0425

Aug 23 5383 3908 2596 1843 0882 0363

Sep 23 0311 0172 0059 0018 0004 0000

Oct 23 0239 0195 0137 0082 0034 0016

Nov 23 0498 0460 0401 0306 0198 0132

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 72 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 49199 8644 3784 2030 188 160 3125 2058 611 86 02 02 Feb 13 533 01 00 00 00 00 371 245 120 15 01 01 Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 14 14 05 00 00 00 Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 102 102 39 02 00 00

Jan 23 27107 8184 4667 3224 11215 1079 47773 3730 1673 5636 373 363 Feb 23 14134 2090 637 228 03 02 11992 9750 5283 1208 82 81 Mar 23 01 00 00 00 00 00 281 281 122 09 00 00 Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Aug 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 03 03 00 00 00 00 Sep 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Dec 23 216 00 00 00 00 00 1680 1660 809 99 08 08

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 73 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

New England New York CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 13 4808 4409 2517 1799 1786 698 12568 6175 2756 1181 1011 187

Jul 13 10074 7005 3657 2415 2356 701 25985 1037 4083 1629 1362 229

Aug 13 15213 1354 7682 5342 5265 2122 21464 8156 3465 1601 1398 191

Sep 13 124 118 37 16 16 02 14 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 00 00 00 00

Feb 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 23 38630 3769 2652 2079 20729 9602 142999 8982 5704 35408 32707 1305

Jul 23 75805 6813 4354 3217 31753 1353 292936 16983 10283 62175 56818 2079

Aug 23 10065 9661 6862 5405 53336 2715 237645 13435 8290 52673 48853 16148

Sep 23 3087 2801 1678 1221 1212 460 2017 453 153 57 48 02

Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 01 00 00 00

Dec 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 74 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Ontario CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 252 121 40 11 03 02

Feb 13 02 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 03 02 01 00 00 00

May 13 09 05 01 00 00 00

Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jul 13 10319 2982 976 359 75 12

Aug 13 8851 3834 1446 517 85 12

Sep 13 11 02 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 10 06 02 01 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 8279 4839 2027 673 238 154

Feb 23 312 122 25 03 00 00

Mar 23 02 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 272 219 161 91 37 10

May 23 1103 756 334 93 16 06

Jun 23 36 11 02 00 00 00

Jul 23 84551 53152 33941 21124 8344 3101

Aug 23 69062 49778 31530 18895 6344 2266

Sep 23 1940 1081 386 107 18 01

Oct 23 512 348 158 49 12 04

Nov 23 391 336 264 169 92 49

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 55 Final Report

Unknown

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 28228 25954 26533 25134 Coal 0 0 0 0 Petroleum 2107 2107 2107 2107 Gas 7223 6510 7223 6510 Nuclear 10496 10444 8719 9624 Hydro 6300 5888 6322 5888 Pumped Storage 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 293 293 293 293 Wind 1809 673 1870 673 Solar 0 39 0 39 Other 0 0 0 0 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 246 1041 0 0 Scheduled Outages 246 1041 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal Petroleum Gas 101 104 101 104 Nuclear 70 70 71 71 Hydro 00 00 00 00 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 23 23 23 23 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 28228 25954 26533 25134

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 0 0 0 0 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 56 Final Report

Firm 0 500 0 500 Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1418 1418 1418 1418

Non-Spinning Reserves 1418 1418 1418 1418 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 1498 1262 1493 1262 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 795 533 795 533 Voltage Reductions 490 508 487 508 Public Appeals 213 221 212 221 Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 133033 132435 Total Internal Demand (MW) 22085 22098 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 11 + 11 Net Internal Demand (MW) 22085 22098 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 25968 26131 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 24413 24634 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 176 182 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 105 115

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 2556963 559120090

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 57 Final Report

Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0008545 1150387

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 141238 151328 Total Internal Demand (MW) 23567 25251 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 11 + 11 Net Internal Demand (MW) 23567 25251 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 26131 26131 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 24634 24634 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 2557 559120 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0018 3695 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0009 1150 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 109 204 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 45 -24

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 58 Final Report

Appendix E Demand and Capacity - Quebec

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 192928 189157

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 39057 21227 39737 21556 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 35659 19953 36001 20133 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 42733 22641 43778 23134

Other Demand Factors 0 0 0 0 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 1460 0 1544 0 Total Available 1460 1544

Net Internal Demand 37597 21227 38193 21556

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 42101 34901 42443 35197

Coal Petroleum 436 272 436 272 Gas Nuclear Hydro 40173 34233 40458 34519 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 352 397 403 406 Wind 1140 0 1146 0 Solar Other Unknown

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 59 Final Report

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 41400 34321 41733 34607

Coal 0 0 0 0 Petroleum 408 255 408 254 Gas 0 0 0 0 Nuclear 0 0 0 0 Hydro 39522 33695 39803 33973 Pumped Storage 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 330 371 377 380 Wind 1140 0 1146 0 Solar 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 0 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal Petroleum 64 64 65 65 Gas Nuclear Hydro 16 16 16 16 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 64 64 65 65 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 41400 34321 41733 34607

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 500 0 500 0 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports Firm 716 2036 1316 1110

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 60 Final Report

Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1250 1250 1250 1250

Non-Spinning Reserves 1250 1250 1250 1250 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 250 250 250 250 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 0 0 0 0 Voltage Reductions 250 250 250 250 Public Appeals Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 192928 189157 Total Internal Demand (MW) 39057 39737 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 9 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 37597 38193 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41885 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 41184 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 114 90 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 95 71

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004482 1079363992 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0071871 1368365

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 61 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 196519 204518 Total Internal Demand (MW) 41283 42964 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 10 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 39739 41420 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41627 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 40917 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004 1079364 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0081 5278 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0072 1368 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 48 05 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 30 -12

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 62 Final Report

Appendix F Definitions

Net Energy for Load (GWh) Energy Modeled (Input) Total Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load (Input)

Demand-Side Management ndash Available Sum of DCLM Interruptible Load CPP Load as Cap (from Form A) (Not probabilistic data)

Net Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load - Demand-Side Management ndash Available Capacity Expected on Peak Sum of capacity by type modeled in probabilistic (Input) Net Firm ImportExports Input Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) Capacity Expected on Peak + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Weighted average forced outage Input based on weighted EFOR by Area Operable Capacity Resources Sum of capacity expected on peak weighted average forced outage rate by type Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) Operable Capacity Resources + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) Result (Input) Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) Result (Input) Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () Forecast Capacity ResourcesNet Internal Demand ndash 1 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () Forecast Operable Capacity Resources Net Internal Demand ndash 1

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 63 Final Report

Appendix G Monthly Results

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0281 0011 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0011 0003 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0022 0006 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0062 0020 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 1184 0066 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0093 0038 0002 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0013 0005 0001 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0014 0004 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 64 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0020 0008 0004 0004 0001 0016 0007 0001 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0126 0061 0036 0035 0008 0177 0081 0011 0004 0003 0000 Aug 20 0000 0170 0100 0066 0066 0018 0084 0039 0009 0004 0003 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0039 0017 0009 0009 0001 0099 0046 0008 0002 0001 0000 Jul 22 0000 0053 0015 0006 0006 0001 0191 0066 0010 0002 0001 0000 Aug 22 0000 0109 0053 0029 0029 0005 0143 0042 0008 0002 0001 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 65 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0017 0009 0002 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0094 0013 0001 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0033 0004 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0154 0026 0003 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0133 0025 0004 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 66 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 534 01 00 00 00 00 00 04 01 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 02 00 00 00 Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 26 08 00 00 00

Jan 22 5150 143 07 01 00 00 00 58 20 01 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 04 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 06 02 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 67 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 20 00 131 45 22 22 03

47 14 03 01 00 00

Jul 20 00 1003 397 208 207 34

695 176 28 07 05 00

Aug 20 00 1640 796 459 458 89

366 119 35 11 09 00

Sep 20 00 02 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 22 00 292 100 47 46 05

356 111 21 05 03 00

Jul 22 00 360 75 29 29 03

819 166 22 04 03 00

Aug 22 00 933 361 174 170 19

736 135 24 05 03 00

Sep 22 00 01 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 68 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 20 02 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 412 60 04 00 00 00 Aug 20 168 22 01 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 03 01 00 00 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 810 143 12 01 00 00 Aug 22 872 151 17 01 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 69 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 6800 1193 0659 0419 0082 0072 2452 1384 0608 0093 0004 0004 Feb 13 0276 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0425 0307 0162 0025 0002 0002 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0027 0027 0012 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0198 0198 0077 0004 0000 0000

Jan 23 25577 8034 5143 3763 1417 1367 20970 1390 8337 3131 0373 0370 Feb 23 2206 0401 0188 0098 0001 0001 8255 7122 4599 1179 0125 0125 Mar 23 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0455 0455 0209 0019 0001 0001 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0004 0004 0001 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0145 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 2410 2383 1206 0146 0013 0013

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 70 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0480 0366 0192 0136 0134 0066 1794 1086 0550 0257 0223 0059 Jul 13 1090 0595 0295 0211 0206 0087 3470 1914 0866 0382 0329 0081 Aug 13 1414 1042 0592 0405 0393 0183 2520 1246 0583 0279 0244 0051 Sep 13 0022 0020 0007 0003 0003 0000 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 2158 1914 1449 1232 1223 0686 11327 8482 6147 4024 3772 1983 Jul 23 4880 4228 2975 2345 2232 1011 22882 1640 1132 7462 6937 3328 Aug 23 5764 4995 3535 2966 2831 1607 16530 1132 7842 5252 4936 2134 Sep 23 0326 0226 0119 0091 0090 0052 0321 0075 0029 0013 0012 0001 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 71 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc Jan 13 0184 0078 0031 0014 0004 0003

Feb 13 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 13 0009 0007 0005 0002 0000 0000

May 13 0002 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jul 13 1084 0317 0107 0048 0014 0003

Aug 13 1034 0513 0204 0084 0020 0003

Sep 13 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Oct 13 0009 0006 0004 0002 0000 0000

Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 3359 1851 0990 0513 0222 0162

Feb 23 0173 0066 0015 0003 0000 0000

Mar 23 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 23 0427 0369 0295 0217 0133 0051

May 23 0202 0143 0067 0020 0003 0001

Jun 23 0009 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jul 23 5457 3647 2468 1735 0984 0425

Aug 23 5383 3908 2596 1843 0882 0363

Sep 23 0311 0172 0059 0018 0004 0000

Oct 23 0239 0195 0137 0082 0034 0016

Nov 23 0498 0460 0401 0306 0198 0132

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 72 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 49199 8644 3784 2030 188 160 3125 2058 611 86 02 02 Feb 13 533 01 00 00 00 00 371 245 120 15 01 01 Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 14 14 05 00 00 00 Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 102 102 39 02 00 00

Jan 23 27107 8184 4667 3224 11215 1079 47773 3730 1673 5636 373 363 Feb 23 14134 2090 637 228 03 02 11992 9750 5283 1208 82 81 Mar 23 01 00 00 00 00 00 281 281 122 09 00 00 Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Aug 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 03 03 00 00 00 00 Sep 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Dec 23 216 00 00 00 00 00 1680 1660 809 99 08 08

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 73 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

New England New York CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 13 4808 4409 2517 1799 1786 698 12568 6175 2756 1181 1011 187

Jul 13 10074 7005 3657 2415 2356 701 25985 1037 4083 1629 1362 229

Aug 13 15213 1354 7682 5342 5265 2122 21464 8156 3465 1601 1398 191

Sep 13 124 118 37 16 16 02 14 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 00 00 00 00

Feb 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 23 38630 3769 2652 2079 20729 9602 142999 8982 5704 35408 32707 1305

Jul 23 75805 6813 4354 3217 31753 1353 292936 16983 10283 62175 56818 2079

Aug 23 10065 9661 6862 5405 53336 2715 237645 13435 8290 52673 48853 16148

Sep 23 3087 2801 1678 1221 1212 460 2017 453 153 57 48 02

Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 01 00 00 00

Dec 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 74 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Ontario CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 252 121 40 11 03 02

Feb 13 02 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 03 02 01 00 00 00

May 13 09 05 01 00 00 00

Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jul 13 10319 2982 976 359 75 12

Aug 13 8851 3834 1446 517 85 12

Sep 13 11 02 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 10 06 02 01 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 8279 4839 2027 673 238 154

Feb 23 312 122 25 03 00 00

Mar 23 02 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 272 219 161 91 37 10

May 23 1103 756 334 93 16 06

Jun 23 36 11 02 00 00 00

Jul 23 84551 53152 33941 21124 8344 3101

Aug 23 69062 49778 31530 18895 6344 2266

Sep 23 1940 1081 386 107 18 01

Oct 23 512 348 158 49 12 04

Nov 23 391 336 264 169 92 49

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 56 Final Report

Firm 0 500 0 500 Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1418 1418 1418 1418

Non-Spinning Reserves 1418 1418 1418 1418 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 1498 1262 1493 1262 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 795 533 795 533 Voltage Reductions 490 508 487 508 Public Appeals 213 221 212 221 Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 133033 132435 Total Internal Demand (MW) 22085 22098 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 11 + 11 Net Internal Demand (MW) 22085 22098 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 25968 26131 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 24413 24634 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 176 182 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 105 115

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 2556963 559120090

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 57 Final Report

Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0008545 1150387

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 141238 151328 Total Internal Demand (MW) 23567 25251 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 11 + 11 Net Internal Demand (MW) 23567 25251 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 26131 26131 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 24634 24634 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 2557 559120 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0018 3695 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0009 1150 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 109 204 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 45 -24

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 58 Final Report

Appendix E Demand and Capacity - Quebec

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 192928 189157

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 39057 21227 39737 21556 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 35659 19953 36001 20133 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 42733 22641 43778 23134

Other Demand Factors 0 0 0 0 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 1460 0 1544 0 Total Available 1460 1544

Net Internal Demand 37597 21227 38193 21556

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 42101 34901 42443 35197

Coal Petroleum 436 272 436 272 Gas Nuclear Hydro 40173 34233 40458 34519 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 352 397 403 406 Wind 1140 0 1146 0 Solar Other Unknown

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 59 Final Report

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 41400 34321 41733 34607

Coal 0 0 0 0 Petroleum 408 255 408 254 Gas 0 0 0 0 Nuclear 0 0 0 0 Hydro 39522 33695 39803 33973 Pumped Storage 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 330 371 377 380 Wind 1140 0 1146 0 Solar 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 0 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal Petroleum 64 64 65 65 Gas Nuclear Hydro 16 16 16 16 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 64 64 65 65 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 41400 34321 41733 34607

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 500 0 500 0 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports Firm 716 2036 1316 1110

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 60 Final Report

Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1250 1250 1250 1250

Non-Spinning Reserves 1250 1250 1250 1250 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 250 250 250 250 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 0 0 0 0 Voltage Reductions 250 250 250 250 Public Appeals Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 192928 189157 Total Internal Demand (MW) 39057 39737 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 9 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 37597 38193 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41885 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 41184 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 114 90 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 95 71

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004482 1079363992 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0071871 1368365

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 61 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 196519 204518 Total Internal Demand (MW) 41283 42964 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 10 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 39739 41420 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41627 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 40917 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004 1079364 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0081 5278 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0072 1368 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 48 05 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 30 -12

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 62 Final Report

Appendix F Definitions

Net Energy for Load (GWh) Energy Modeled (Input) Total Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load (Input)

Demand-Side Management ndash Available Sum of DCLM Interruptible Load CPP Load as Cap (from Form A) (Not probabilistic data)

Net Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load - Demand-Side Management ndash Available Capacity Expected on Peak Sum of capacity by type modeled in probabilistic (Input) Net Firm ImportExports Input Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) Capacity Expected on Peak + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Weighted average forced outage Input based on weighted EFOR by Area Operable Capacity Resources Sum of capacity expected on peak weighted average forced outage rate by type Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) Operable Capacity Resources + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) Result (Input) Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) Result (Input) Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () Forecast Capacity ResourcesNet Internal Demand ndash 1 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () Forecast Operable Capacity Resources Net Internal Demand ndash 1

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 63 Final Report

Appendix G Monthly Results

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0281 0011 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0011 0003 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0022 0006 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0062 0020 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 1184 0066 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0093 0038 0002 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0013 0005 0001 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0014 0004 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 64 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0020 0008 0004 0004 0001 0016 0007 0001 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0126 0061 0036 0035 0008 0177 0081 0011 0004 0003 0000 Aug 20 0000 0170 0100 0066 0066 0018 0084 0039 0009 0004 0003 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0039 0017 0009 0009 0001 0099 0046 0008 0002 0001 0000 Jul 22 0000 0053 0015 0006 0006 0001 0191 0066 0010 0002 0001 0000 Aug 22 0000 0109 0053 0029 0029 0005 0143 0042 0008 0002 0001 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 65 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0017 0009 0002 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0094 0013 0001 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0033 0004 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0154 0026 0003 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0133 0025 0004 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 66 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 534 01 00 00 00 00 00 04 01 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 02 00 00 00 Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 26 08 00 00 00

Jan 22 5150 143 07 01 00 00 00 58 20 01 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 04 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 06 02 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 67 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 20 00 131 45 22 22 03

47 14 03 01 00 00

Jul 20 00 1003 397 208 207 34

695 176 28 07 05 00

Aug 20 00 1640 796 459 458 89

366 119 35 11 09 00

Sep 20 00 02 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 22 00 292 100 47 46 05

356 111 21 05 03 00

Jul 22 00 360 75 29 29 03

819 166 22 04 03 00

Aug 22 00 933 361 174 170 19

736 135 24 05 03 00

Sep 22 00 01 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 68 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 20 02 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 412 60 04 00 00 00 Aug 20 168 22 01 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 03 01 00 00 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 810 143 12 01 00 00 Aug 22 872 151 17 01 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 69 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 6800 1193 0659 0419 0082 0072 2452 1384 0608 0093 0004 0004 Feb 13 0276 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0425 0307 0162 0025 0002 0002 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0027 0027 0012 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0198 0198 0077 0004 0000 0000

Jan 23 25577 8034 5143 3763 1417 1367 20970 1390 8337 3131 0373 0370 Feb 23 2206 0401 0188 0098 0001 0001 8255 7122 4599 1179 0125 0125 Mar 23 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0455 0455 0209 0019 0001 0001 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0004 0004 0001 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0145 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 2410 2383 1206 0146 0013 0013

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 70 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0480 0366 0192 0136 0134 0066 1794 1086 0550 0257 0223 0059 Jul 13 1090 0595 0295 0211 0206 0087 3470 1914 0866 0382 0329 0081 Aug 13 1414 1042 0592 0405 0393 0183 2520 1246 0583 0279 0244 0051 Sep 13 0022 0020 0007 0003 0003 0000 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 2158 1914 1449 1232 1223 0686 11327 8482 6147 4024 3772 1983 Jul 23 4880 4228 2975 2345 2232 1011 22882 1640 1132 7462 6937 3328 Aug 23 5764 4995 3535 2966 2831 1607 16530 1132 7842 5252 4936 2134 Sep 23 0326 0226 0119 0091 0090 0052 0321 0075 0029 0013 0012 0001 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 71 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc Jan 13 0184 0078 0031 0014 0004 0003

Feb 13 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 13 0009 0007 0005 0002 0000 0000

May 13 0002 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jul 13 1084 0317 0107 0048 0014 0003

Aug 13 1034 0513 0204 0084 0020 0003

Sep 13 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Oct 13 0009 0006 0004 0002 0000 0000

Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 3359 1851 0990 0513 0222 0162

Feb 23 0173 0066 0015 0003 0000 0000

Mar 23 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 23 0427 0369 0295 0217 0133 0051

May 23 0202 0143 0067 0020 0003 0001

Jun 23 0009 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jul 23 5457 3647 2468 1735 0984 0425

Aug 23 5383 3908 2596 1843 0882 0363

Sep 23 0311 0172 0059 0018 0004 0000

Oct 23 0239 0195 0137 0082 0034 0016

Nov 23 0498 0460 0401 0306 0198 0132

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 72 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 49199 8644 3784 2030 188 160 3125 2058 611 86 02 02 Feb 13 533 01 00 00 00 00 371 245 120 15 01 01 Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 14 14 05 00 00 00 Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 102 102 39 02 00 00

Jan 23 27107 8184 4667 3224 11215 1079 47773 3730 1673 5636 373 363 Feb 23 14134 2090 637 228 03 02 11992 9750 5283 1208 82 81 Mar 23 01 00 00 00 00 00 281 281 122 09 00 00 Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Aug 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 03 03 00 00 00 00 Sep 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Dec 23 216 00 00 00 00 00 1680 1660 809 99 08 08

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 73 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

New England New York CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 13 4808 4409 2517 1799 1786 698 12568 6175 2756 1181 1011 187

Jul 13 10074 7005 3657 2415 2356 701 25985 1037 4083 1629 1362 229

Aug 13 15213 1354 7682 5342 5265 2122 21464 8156 3465 1601 1398 191

Sep 13 124 118 37 16 16 02 14 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 00 00 00 00

Feb 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 23 38630 3769 2652 2079 20729 9602 142999 8982 5704 35408 32707 1305

Jul 23 75805 6813 4354 3217 31753 1353 292936 16983 10283 62175 56818 2079

Aug 23 10065 9661 6862 5405 53336 2715 237645 13435 8290 52673 48853 16148

Sep 23 3087 2801 1678 1221 1212 460 2017 453 153 57 48 02

Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 01 00 00 00

Dec 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 74 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Ontario CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 252 121 40 11 03 02

Feb 13 02 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 03 02 01 00 00 00

May 13 09 05 01 00 00 00

Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jul 13 10319 2982 976 359 75 12

Aug 13 8851 3834 1446 517 85 12

Sep 13 11 02 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 10 06 02 01 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 8279 4839 2027 673 238 154

Feb 23 312 122 25 03 00 00

Mar 23 02 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 272 219 161 91 37 10

May 23 1103 756 334 93 16 06

Jun 23 36 11 02 00 00 00

Jul 23 84551 53152 33941 21124 8344 3101

Aug 23 69062 49778 31530 18895 6344 2266

Sep 23 1940 1081 386 107 18 01

Oct 23 512 348 158 49 12 04

Nov 23 391 336 264 169 92 49

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 57 Final Report

Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0008545 1150387

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 141238 151328 Total Internal Demand (MW) 23567 25251 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 11 + 11 Net Internal Demand (MW) 23567 25251 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 26131 26131 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 24634 24634 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 2557 559120 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0018 3695 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0009 1150 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 109 204 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 45 -24

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 58 Final Report

Appendix E Demand and Capacity - Quebec

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 192928 189157

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 39057 21227 39737 21556 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 35659 19953 36001 20133 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 42733 22641 43778 23134

Other Demand Factors 0 0 0 0 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 1460 0 1544 0 Total Available 1460 1544

Net Internal Demand 37597 21227 38193 21556

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 42101 34901 42443 35197

Coal Petroleum 436 272 436 272 Gas Nuclear Hydro 40173 34233 40458 34519 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 352 397 403 406 Wind 1140 0 1146 0 Solar Other Unknown

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 59 Final Report

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 41400 34321 41733 34607

Coal 0 0 0 0 Petroleum 408 255 408 254 Gas 0 0 0 0 Nuclear 0 0 0 0 Hydro 39522 33695 39803 33973 Pumped Storage 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 330 371 377 380 Wind 1140 0 1146 0 Solar 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 0 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal Petroleum 64 64 65 65 Gas Nuclear Hydro 16 16 16 16 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 64 64 65 65 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 41400 34321 41733 34607

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 500 0 500 0 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports Firm 716 2036 1316 1110

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 60 Final Report

Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1250 1250 1250 1250

Non-Spinning Reserves 1250 1250 1250 1250 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 250 250 250 250 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 0 0 0 0 Voltage Reductions 250 250 250 250 Public Appeals Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 192928 189157 Total Internal Demand (MW) 39057 39737 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 9 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 37597 38193 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41885 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 41184 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 114 90 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 95 71

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004482 1079363992 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0071871 1368365

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 61 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 196519 204518 Total Internal Demand (MW) 41283 42964 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 10 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 39739 41420 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41627 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 40917 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004 1079364 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0081 5278 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0072 1368 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 48 05 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 30 -12

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 62 Final Report

Appendix F Definitions

Net Energy for Load (GWh) Energy Modeled (Input) Total Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load (Input)

Demand-Side Management ndash Available Sum of DCLM Interruptible Load CPP Load as Cap (from Form A) (Not probabilistic data)

Net Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load - Demand-Side Management ndash Available Capacity Expected on Peak Sum of capacity by type modeled in probabilistic (Input) Net Firm ImportExports Input Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) Capacity Expected on Peak + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Weighted average forced outage Input based on weighted EFOR by Area Operable Capacity Resources Sum of capacity expected on peak weighted average forced outage rate by type Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) Operable Capacity Resources + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) Result (Input) Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) Result (Input) Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () Forecast Capacity ResourcesNet Internal Demand ndash 1 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () Forecast Operable Capacity Resources Net Internal Demand ndash 1

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 63 Final Report

Appendix G Monthly Results

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0281 0011 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0011 0003 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0022 0006 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0062 0020 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 1184 0066 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0093 0038 0002 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0013 0005 0001 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0014 0004 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 64 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0020 0008 0004 0004 0001 0016 0007 0001 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0126 0061 0036 0035 0008 0177 0081 0011 0004 0003 0000 Aug 20 0000 0170 0100 0066 0066 0018 0084 0039 0009 0004 0003 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0039 0017 0009 0009 0001 0099 0046 0008 0002 0001 0000 Jul 22 0000 0053 0015 0006 0006 0001 0191 0066 0010 0002 0001 0000 Aug 22 0000 0109 0053 0029 0029 0005 0143 0042 0008 0002 0001 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 65 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0017 0009 0002 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0094 0013 0001 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0033 0004 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0154 0026 0003 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0133 0025 0004 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 66 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 534 01 00 00 00 00 00 04 01 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 02 00 00 00 Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 26 08 00 00 00

Jan 22 5150 143 07 01 00 00 00 58 20 01 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 04 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 06 02 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 67 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 20 00 131 45 22 22 03

47 14 03 01 00 00

Jul 20 00 1003 397 208 207 34

695 176 28 07 05 00

Aug 20 00 1640 796 459 458 89

366 119 35 11 09 00

Sep 20 00 02 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 22 00 292 100 47 46 05

356 111 21 05 03 00

Jul 22 00 360 75 29 29 03

819 166 22 04 03 00

Aug 22 00 933 361 174 170 19

736 135 24 05 03 00

Sep 22 00 01 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 68 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 20 02 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 412 60 04 00 00 00 Aug 20 168 22 01 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 03 01 00 00 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 810 143 12 01 00 00 Aug 22 872 151 17 01 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 69 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 6800 1193 0659 0419 0082 0072 2452 1384 0608 0093 0004 0004 Feb 13 0276 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0425 0307 0162 0025 0002 0002 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0027 0027 0012 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0198 0198 0077 0004 0000 0000

Jan 23 25577 8034 5143 3763 1417 1367 20970 1390 8337 3131 0373 0370 Feb 23 2206 0401 0188 0098 0001 0001 8255 7122 4599 1179 0125 0125 Mar 23 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0455 0455 0209 0019 0001 0001 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0004 0004 0001 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0145 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 2410 2383 1206 0146 0013 0013

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 70 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0480 0366 0192 0136 0134 0066 1794 1086 0550 0257 0223 0059 Jul 13 1090 0595 0295 0211 0206 0087 3470 1914 0866 0382 0329 0081 Aug 13 1414 1042 0592 0405 0393 0183 2520 1246 0583 0279 0244 0051 Sep 13 0022 0020 0007 0003 0003 0000 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 2158 1914 1449 1232 1223 0686 11327 8482 6147 4024 3772 1983 Jul 23 4880 4228 2975 2345 2232 1011 22882 1640 1132 7462 6937 3328 Aug 23 5764 4995 3535 2966 2831 1607 16530 1132 7842 5252 4936 2134 Sep 23 0326 0226 0119 0091 0090 0052 0321 0075 0029 0013 0012 0001 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 71 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc Jan 13 0184 0078 0031 0014 0004 0003

Feb 13 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 13 0009 0007 0005 0002 0000 0000

May 13 0002 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jul 13 1084 0317 0107 0048 0014 0003

Aug 13 1034 0513 0204 0084 0020 0003

Sep 13 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Oct 13 0009 0006 0004 0002 0000 0000

Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 3359 1851 0990 0513 0222 0162

Feb 23 0173 0066 0015 0003 0000 0000

Mar 23 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 23 0427 0369 0295 0217 0133 0051

May 23 0202 0143 0067 0020 0003 0001

Jun 23 0009 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jul 23 5457 3647 2468 1735 0984 0425

Aug 23 5383 3908 2596 1843 0882 0363

Sep 23 0311 0172 0059 0018 0004 0000

Oct 23 0239 0195 0137 0082 0034 0016

Nov 23 0498 0460 0401 0306 0198 0132

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 72 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 49199 8644 3784 2030 188 160 3125 2058 611 86 02 02 Feb 13 533 01 00 00 00 00 371 245 120 15 01 01 Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 14 14 05 00 00 00 Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 102 102 39 02 00 00

Jan 23 27107 8184 4667 3224 11215 1079 47773 3730 1673 5636 373 363 Feb 23 14134 2090 637 228 03 02 11992 9750 5283 1208 82 81 Mar 23 01 00 00 00 00 00 281 281 122 09 00 00 Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Aug 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 03 03 00 00 00 00 Sep 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Dec 23 216 00 00 00 00 00 1680 1660 809 99 08 08

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 73 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

New England New York CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 13 4808 4409 2517 1799 1786 698 12568 6175 2756 1181 1011 187

Jul 13 10074 7005 3657 2415 2356 701 25985 1037 4083 1629 1362 229

Aug 13 15213 1354 7682 5342 5265 2122 21464 8156 3465 1601 1398 191

Sep 13 124 118 37 16 16 02 14 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 00 00 00 00

Feb 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 23 38630 3769 2652 2079 20729 9602 142999 8982 5704 35408 32707 1305

Jul 23 75805 6813 4354 3217 31753 1353 292936 16983 10283 62175 56818 2079

Aug 23 10065 9661 6862 5405 53336 2715 237645 13435 8290 52673 48853 16148

Sep 23 3087 2801 1678 1221 1212 460 2017 453 153 57 48 02

Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 01 00 00 00

Dec 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 74 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Ontario CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 252 121 40 11 03 02

Feb 13 02 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 03 02 01 00 00 00

May 13 09 05 01 00 00 00

Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jul 13 10319 2982 976 359 75 12

Aug 13 8851 3834 1446 517 85 12

Sep 13 11 02 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 10 06 02 01 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 8279 4839 2027 673 238 154

Feb 23 312 122 25 03 00 00

Mar 23 02 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 272 219 161 91 37 10

May 23 1103 756 334 93 16 06

Jun 23 36 11 02 00 00 00

Jul 23 84551 53152 33941 21124 8344 3101

Aug 23 69062 49778 31530 18895 6344 2266

Sep 23 1940 1081 386 107 18 01

Oct 23 512 348 158 49 12 04

Nov 23 391 336 264 169 92 49

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 58 Final Report

Appendix E Demand and Capacity - Quebec

2020 2022 ENERGY Annual Annual Net Energy for Load - Annual (GWh) 192928 189157

2020 2022 DEMAND Winter Summer Winter Summer Total Internal Demand

Expected Demand (5050) 39057 21227 39737 21556 Low Forecast Cumulative Probability 10 10 10 10 Low Forecast Demand 35659 19953 36001 20133 High Forecast Cumulative Probability 90 90 90 90 High Forecast Demand 42733 22641 43778 23134

Other Demand Factors 0 0 0 0 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Behind the Meter Generation Distributed Generation Standby Load Under Contract

Controllable and Dispatchable Demand Response 1460 0 1544 0 Total Available 1460 1544

Net Internal Demand 37597 21227 38193 21556

2020 2022 CAPACITY Winter Summer Winter Summer Capacity Installed (Nameplate) 42101 34901 42443 35197

Coal Petroleum 436 272 436 272 Gas Nuclear Hydro 40173 34233 40458 34519 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 352 397 403 406 Wind 1140 0 1146 0 Solar Other Unknown

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 59 Final Report

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 41400 34321 41733 34607

Coal 0 0 0 0 Petroleum 408 255 408 254 Gas 0 0 0 0 Nuclear 0 0 0 0 Hydro 39522 33695 39803 33973 Pumped Storage 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 330 371 377 380 Wind 1140 0 1146 0 Solar 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 0 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal Petroleum 64 64 65 65 Gas Nuclear Hydro 16 16 16 16 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 64 64 65 65 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 41400 34321 41733 34607

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 500 0 500 0 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports Firm 716 2036 1316 1110

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 60 Final Report

Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1250 1250 1250 1250

Non-Spinning Reserves 1250 1250 1250 1250 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 250 250 250 250 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 0 0 0 0 Voltage Reductions 250 250 250 250 Public Appeals Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 192928 189157 Total Internal Demand (MW) 39057 39737 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 9 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 37597 38193 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41885 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 41184 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 114 90 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 95 71

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004482 1079363992 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0071871 1368365

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 61 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 196519 204518 Total Internal Demand (MW) 41283 42964 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 10 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 39739 41420 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41627 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 40917 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004 1079364 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0081 5278 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0072 1368 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 48 05 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 30 -12

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 62 Final Report

Appendix F Definitions

Net Energy for Load (GWh) Energy Modeled (Input) Total Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load (Input)

Demand-Side Management ndash Available Sum of DCLM Interruptible Load CPP Load as Cap (from Form A) (Not probabilistic data)

Net Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load - Demand-Side Management ndash Available Capacity Expected on Peak Sum of capacity by type modeled in probabilistic (Input) Net Firm ImportExports Input Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) Capacity Expected on Peak + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Weighted average forced outage Input based on weighted EFOR by Area Operable Capacity Resources Sum of capacity expected on peak weighted average forced outage rate by type Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) Operable Capacity Resources + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) Result (Input) Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) Result (Input) Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () Forecast Capacity ResourcesNet Internal Demand ndash 1 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () Forecast Operable Capacity Resources Net Internal Demand ndash 1

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 63 Final Report

Appendix G Monthly Results

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0281 0011 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0011 0003 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0022 0006 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0062 0020 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 1184 0066 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0093 0038 0002 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0013 0005 0001 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0014 0004 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 64 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0020 0008 0004 0004 0001 0016 0007 0001 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0126 0061 0036 0035 0008 0177 0081 0011 0004 0003 0000 Aug 20 0000 0170 0100 0066 0066 0018 0084 0039 0009 0004 0003 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0039 0017 0009 0009 0001 0099 0046 0008 0002 0001 0000 Jul 22 0000 0053 0015 0006 0006 0001 0191 0066 0010 0002 0001 0000 Aug 22 0000 0109 0053 0029 0029 0005 0143 0042 0008 0002 0001 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 65 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0017 0009 0002 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0094 0013 0001 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0033 0004 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0154 0026 0003 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0133 0025 0004 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 66 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 534 01 00 00 00 00 00 04 01 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 02 00 00 00 Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 26 08 00 00 00

Jan 22 5150 143 07 01 00 00 00 58 20 01 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 04 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 06 02 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 67 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 20 00 131 45 22 22 03

47 14 03 01 00 00

Jul 20 00 1003 397 208 207 34

695 176 28 07 05 00

Aug 20 00 1640 796 459 458 89

366 119 35 11 09 00

Sep 20 00 02 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 22 00 292 100 47 46 05

356 111 21 05 03 00

Jul 22 00 360 75 29 29 03

819 166 22 04 03 00

Aug 22 00 933 361 174 170 19

736 135 24 05 03 00

Sep 22 00 01 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 68 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 20 02 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 412 60 04 00 00 00 Aug 20 168 22 01 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 03 01 00 00 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 810 143 12 01 00 00 Aug 22 872 151 17 01 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 69 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 6800 1193 0659 0419 0082 0072 2452 1384 0608 0093 0004 0004 Feb 13 0276 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0425 0307 0162 0025 0002 0002 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0027 0027 0012 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0198 0198 0077 0004 0000 0000

Jan 23 25577 8034 5143 3763 1417 1367 20970 1390 8337 3131 0373 0370 Feb 23 2206 0401 0188 0098 0001 0001 8255 7122 4599 1179 0125 0125 Mar 23 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0455 0455 0209 0019 0001 0001 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0004 0004 0001 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0145 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 2410 2383 1206 0146 0013 0013

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 70 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0480 0366 0192 0136 0134 0066 1794 1086 0550 0257 0223 0059 Jul 13 1090 0595 0295 0211 0206 0087 3470 1914 0866 0382 0329 0081 Aug 13 1414 1042 0592 0405 0393 0183 2520 1246 0583 0279 0244 0051 Sep 13 0022 0020 0007 0003 0003 0000 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 2158 1914 1449 1232 1223 0686 11327 8482 6147 4024 3772 1983 Jul 23 4880 4228 2975 2345 2232 1011 22882 1640 1132 7462 6937 3328 Aug 23 5764 4995 3535 2966 2831 1607 16530 1132 7842 5252 4936 2134 Sep 23 0326 0226 0119 0091 0090 0052 0321 0075 0029 0013 0012 0001 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 71 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc Jan 13 0184 0078 0031 0014 0004 0003

Feb 13 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 13 0009 0007 0005 0002 0000 0000

May 13 0002 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jul 13 1084 0317 0107 0048 0014 0003

Aug 13 1034 0513 0204 0084 0020 0003

Sep 13 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Oct 13 0009 0006 0004 0002 0000 0000

Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 3359 1851 0990 0513 0222 0162

Feb 23 0173 0066 0015 0003 0000 0000

Mar 23 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 23 0427 0369 0295 0217 0133 0051

May 23 0202 0143 0067 0020 0003 0001

Jun 23 0009 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jul 23 5457 3647 2468 1735 0984 0425

Aug 23 5383 3908 2596 1843 0882 0363

Sep 23 0311 0172 0059 0018 0004 0000

Oct 23 0239 0195 0137 0082 0034 0016

Nov 23 0498 0460 0401 0306 0198 0132

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 72 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 49199 8644 3784 2030 188 160 3125 2058 611 86 02 02 Feb 13 533 01 00 00 00 00 371 245 120 15 01 01 Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 14 14 05 00 00 00 Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 102 102 39 02 00 00

Jan 23 27107 8184 4667 3224 11215 1079 47773 3730 1673 5636 373 363 Feb 23 14134 2090 637 228 03 02 11992 9750 5283 1208 82 81 Mar 23 01 00 00 00 00 00 281 281 122 09 00 00 Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Aug 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 03 03 00 00 00 00 Sep 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Dec 23 216 00 00 00 00 00 1680 1660 809 99 08 08

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 73 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

New England New York CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 13 4808 4409 2517 1799 1786 698 12568 6175 2756 1181 1011 187

Jul 13 10074 7005 3657 2415 2356 701 25985 1037 4083 1629 1362 229

Aug 13 15213 1354 7682 5342 5265 2122 21464 8156 3465 1601 1398 191

Sep 13 124 118 37 16 16 02 14 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 00 00 00 00

Feb 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 23 38630 3769 2652 2079 20729 9602 142999 8982 5704 35408 32707 1305

Jul 23 75805 6813 4354 3217 31753 1353 292936 16983 10283 62175 56818 2079

Aug 23 10065 9661 6862 5405 53336 2715 237645 13435 8290 52673 48853 16148

Sep 23 3087 2801 1678 1221 1212 460 2017 453 153 57 48 02

Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 01 00 00 00

Dec 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 74 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Ontario CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 252 121 40 11 03 02

Feb 13 02 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 03 02 01 00 00 00

May 13 09 05 01 00 00 00

Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jul 13 10319 2982 976 359 75 12

Aug 13 8851 3834 1446 517 85 12

Sep 13 11 02 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 10 06 02 01 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 8279 4839 2027 673 238 154

Feb 23 312 122 25 03 00 00

Mar 23 02 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 272 219 161 91 37 10

May 23 1103 756 334 93 16 06

Jun 23 36 11 02 00 00 00

Jul 23 84551 53152 33941 21124 8344 3101

Aug 23 69062 49778 31530 18895 6344 2266

Sep 23 1940 1081 386 107 18 01

Oct 23 512 348 158 49 12 04

Nov 23 391 336 264 169 92 49

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 59 Final Report

Capacity Expected On-Peak (Existing Certain + Tier 1) 41400 34321 41733 34607

Coal 0 0 0 0 Petroleum 408 255 408 254 Gas 0 0 0 0 Nuclear 0 0 0 0 Hydro 39522 33695 39803 33973 Pumped Storage 0 0 0 0 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 Biomass 330 371 377 380 Wind 1140 0 1146 0 Solar 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 Unknown 0 0 0 0

Capacity Adjustments On-Peak 0 0 0 0 Scheduled Outages 0 0 0 0 Transmission Limitations 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0

Weighted Average Forced Outage Rate On-Peak Coal Petroleum 64 64 65 65 Gas Nuclear Hydro 16 16 16 16 Pumped Storage Geothermal Biomass 64 64 65 65 Wind 00 00 00 00 Solar Other Unknown

Operable Capacity Resources 41400 34321 41733 34607

2020 2022 CAPACITY TRANSFERS Winter Summer Winter Summer Imports

Firm 500 0 500 0 Expected 0 0 0 0

Exports Firm 716 2036 1316 1110

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 60 Final Report

Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1250 1250 1250 1250

Non-Spinning Reserves 1250 1250 1250 1250 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 250 250 250 250 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 0 0 0 0 Voltage Reductions 250 250 250 250 Public Appeals Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 192928 189157 Total Internal Demand (MW) 39057 39737 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 9 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 37597 38193 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41885 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 41184 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 114 90 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 95 71

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004482 1079363992 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0071871 1368365

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 61 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 196519 204518 Total Internal Demand (MW) 41283 42964 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 10 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 39739 41420 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41627 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 40917 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004 1079364 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0081 5278 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0072 1368 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 48 05 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 30 -12

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 62 Final Report

Appendix F Definitions

Net Energy for Load (GWh) Energy Modeled (Input) Total Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load (Input)

Demand-Side Management ndash Available Sum of DCLM Interruptible Load CPP Load as Cap (from Form A) (Not probabilistic data)

Net Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load - Demand-Side Management ndash Available Capacity Expected on Peak Sum of capacity by type modeled in probabilistic (Input) Net Firm ImportExports Input Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) Capacity Expected on Peak + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Weighted average forced outage Input based on weighted EFOR by Area Operable Capacity Resources Sum of capacity expected on peak weighted average forced outage rate by type Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) Operable Capacity Resources + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) Result (Input) Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) Result (Input) Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () Forecast Capacity ResourcesNet Internal Demand ndash 1 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () Forecast Operable Capacity Resources Net Internal Demand ndash 1

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 63 Final Report

Appendix G Monthly Results

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0281 0011 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0011 0003 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0022 0006 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0062 0020 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 1184 0066 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0093 0038 0002 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0013 0005 0001 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0014 0004 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 64 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0020 0008 0004 0004 0001 0016 0007 0001 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0126 0061 0036 0035 0008 0177 0081 0011 0004 0003 0000 Aug 20 0000 0170 0100 0066 0066 0018 0084 0039 0009 0004 0003 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0039 0017 0009 0009 0001 0099 0046 0008 0002 0001 0000 Jul 22 0000 0053 0015 0006 0006 0001 0191 0066 0010 0002 0001 0000 Aug 22 0000 0109 0053 0029 0029 0005 0143 0042 0008 0002 0001 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 65 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0017 0009 0002 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0094 0013 0001 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0033 0004 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0154 0026 0003 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0133 0025 0004 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 66 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 534 01 00 00 00 00 00 04 01 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 02 00 00 00 Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 26 08 00 00 00

Jan 22 5150 143 07 01 00 00 00 58 20 01 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 04 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 06 02 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 67 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 20 00 131 45 22 22 03

47 14 03 01 00 00

Jul 20 00 1003 397 208 207 34

695 176 28 07 05 00

Aug 20 00 1640 796 459 458 89

366 119 35 11 09 00

Sep 20 00 02 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 22 00 292 100 47 46 05

356 111 21 05 03 00

Jul 22 00 360 75 29 29 03

819 166 22 04 03 00

Aug 22 00 933 361 174 170 19

736 135 24 05 03 00

Sep 22 00 01 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 68 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 20 02 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 412 60 04 00 00 00 Aug 20 168 22 01 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 03 01 00 00 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 810 143 12 01 00 00 Aug 22 872 151 17 01 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 69 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 6800 1193 0659 0419 0082 0072 2452 1384 0608 0093 0004 0004 Feb 13 0276 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0425 0307 0162 0025 0002 0002 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0027 0027 0012 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0198 0198 0077 0004 0000 0000

Jan 23 25577 8034 5143 3763 1417 1367 20970 1390 8337 3131 0373 0370 Feb 23 2206 0401 0188 0098 0001 0001 8255 7122 4599 1179 0125 0125 Mar 23 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0455 0455 0209 0019 0001 0001 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0004 0004 0001 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0145 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 2410 2383 1206 0146 0013 0013

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 70 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0480 0366 0192 0136 0134 0066 1794 1086 0550 0257 0223 0059 Jul 13 1090 0595 0295 0211 0206 0087 3470 1914 0866 0382 0329 0081 Aug 13 1414 1042 0592 0405 0393 0183 2520 1246 0583 0279 0244 0051 Sep 13 0022 0020 0007 0003 0003 0000 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 2158 1914 1449 1232 1223 0686 11327 8482 6147 4024 3772 1983 Jul 23 4880 4228 2975 2345 2232 1011 22882 1640 1132 7462 6937 3328 Aug 23 5764 4995 3535 2966 2831 1607 16530 1132 7842 5252 4936 2134 Sep 23 0326 0226 0119 0091 0090 0052 0321 0075 0029 0013 0012 0001 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 71 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc Jan 13 0184 0078 0031 0014 0004 0003

Feb 13 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 13 0009 0007 0005 0002 0000 0000

May 13 0002 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jul 13 1084 0317 0107 0048 0014 0003

Aug 13 1034 0513 0204 0084 0020 0003

Sep 13 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Oct 13 0009 0006 0004 0002 0000 0000

Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 3359 1851 0990 0513 0222 0162

Feb 23 0173 0066 0015 0003 0000 0000

Mar 23 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 23 0427 0369 0295 0217 0133 0051

May 23 0202 0143 0067 0020 0003 0001

Jun 23 0009 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jul 23 5457 3647 2468 1735 0984 0425

Aug 23 5383 3908 2596 1843 0882 0363

Sep 23 0311 0172 0059 0018 0004 0000

Oct 23 0239 0195 0137 0082 0034 0016

Nov 23 0498 0460 0401 0306 0198 0132

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 72 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 49199 8644 3784 2030 188 160 3125 2058 611 86 02 02 Feb 13 533 01 00 00 00 00 371 245 120 15 01 01 Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 14 14 05 00 00 00 Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 102 102 39 02 00 00

Jan 23 27107 8184 4667 3224 11215 1079 47773 3730 1673 5636 373 363 Feb 23 14134 2090 637 228 03 02 11992 9750 5283 1208 82 81 Mar 23 01 00 00 00 00 00 281 281 122 09 00 00 Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Aug 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 03 03 00 00 00 00 Sep 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Dec 23 216 00 00 00 00 00 1680 1660 809 99 08 08

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 73 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

New England New York CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 13 4808 4409 2517 1799 1786 698 12568 6175 2756 1181 1011 187

Jul 13 10074 7005 3657 2415 2356 701 25985 1037 4083 1629 1362 229

Aug 13 15213 1354 7682 5342 5265 2122 21464 8156 3465 1601 1398 191

Sep 13 124 118 37 16 16 02 14 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 00 00 00 00

Feb 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 23 38630 3769 2652 2079 20729 9602 142999 8982 5704 35408 32707 1305

Jul 23 75805 6813 4354 3217 31753 1353 292936 16983 10283 62175 56818 2079

Aug 23 10065 9661 6862 5405 53336 2715 237645 13435 8290 52673 48853 16148

Sep 23 3087 2801 1678 1221 1212 460 2017 453 153 57 48 02

Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 01 00 00 00

Dec 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 74 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Ontario CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 252 121 40 11 03 02

Feb 13 02 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 03 02 01 00 00 00

May 13 09 05 01 00 00 00

Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jul 13 10319 2982 976 359 75 12

Aug 13 8851 3834 1446 517 85 12

Sep 13 11 02 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 10 06 02 01 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 8279 4839 2027 673 238 154

Feb 23 312 122 25 03 00 00

Mar 23 02 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 272 219 161 91 37 10

May 23 1103 756 334 93 16 06

Jun 23 36 11 02 00 00 00

Jul 23 84551 53152 33941 21124 8344 3101

Aug 23 69062 49778 31530 18895 6344 2266

Sep 23 1940 1081 386 107 18 01

Oct 23 512 348 158 49 12 04

Nov 23 391 336 264 169 92 49

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 60 Final Report

Expected 0 0 0 0

2020 2022 CAPACITY OBLIGATIONS amp OPERATING PROCEDURES Winter Summer Winter Summer Other Obligations from Resources 1250 1250 1250 1250

Non-Spinning Reserves 1250 1250 1250 1250 Spinning Reserves Other Obligations

Operating Procedures (Before Loss-of-Load) 250 250 250 250 Additional Demand Response Non-Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Spinning Reserves (Forgone) Other Obligations (Forgone) Interruptible Load 0 0 0 0 Voltage Reductions 250 250 250 250 Public Appeals Other

Base Case 2020 2022 PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000000 0000000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000000 0000000

2020 2022 SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 192928 189157 Total Internal Demand (MW) 39057 39737 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 9 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 37597 38193 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41885 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 41184 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 0000 0000 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0000 0000 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0000 0000 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 114 90 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 95 71

Sensitivity Case 2022 (13) 2022 (23) PROBABILISTIC STATISTICS Annual Annual

Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004482 1079363992 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0071871 1368365

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 61 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 196519 204518 Total Internal Demand (MW) 41283 42964 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 10 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 39739 41420 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41627 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 40917 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004 1079364 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0081 5278 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0072 1368 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 48 05 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 30 -12

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 62 Final Report

Appendix F Definitions

Net Energy for Load (GWh) Energy Modeled (Input) Total Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load (Input)

Demand-Side Management ndash Available Sum of DCLM Interruptible Load CPP Load as Cap (from Form A) (Not probabilistic data)

Net Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load - Demand-Side Management ndash Available Capacity Expected on Peak Sum of capacity by type modeled in probabilistic (Input) Net Firm ImportExports Input Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) Capacity Expected on Peak + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Weighted average forced outage Input based on weighted EFOR by Area Operable Capacity Resources Sum of capacity expected on peak weighted average forced outage rate by type Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) Operable Capacity Resources + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) Result (Input) Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) Result (Input) Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () Forecast Capacity ResourcesNet Internal Demand ndash 1 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () Forecast Operable Capacity Resources Net Internal Demand ndash 1

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 63 Final Report

Appendix G Monthly Results

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0281 0011 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0011 0003 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0022 0006 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0062 0020 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 1184 0066 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0093 0038 0002 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0013 0005 0001 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0014 0004 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 64 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0020 0008 0004 0004 0001 0016 0007 0001 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0126 0061 0036 0035 0008 0177 0081 0011 0004 0003 0000 Aug 20 0000 0170 0100 0066 0066 0018 0084 0039 0009 0004 0003 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0039 0017 0009 0009 0001 0099 0046 0008 0002 0001 0000 Jul 22 0000 0053 0015 0006 0006 0001 0191 0066 0010 0002 0001 0000 Aug 22 0000 0109 0053 0029 0029 0005 0143 0042 0008 0002 0001 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 65 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0017 0009 0002 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0094 0013 0001 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0033 0004 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0154 0026 0003 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0133 0025 0004 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 66 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 534 01 00 00 00 00 00 04 01 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 02 00 00 00 Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 26 08 00 00 00

Jan 22 5150 143 07 01 00 00 00 58 20 01 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 04 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 06 02 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 67 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 20 00 131 45 22 22 03

47 14 03 01 00 00

Jul 20 00 1003 397 208 207 34

695 176 28 07 05 00

Aug 20 00 1640 796 459 458 89

366 119 35 11 09 00

Sep 20 00 02 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 22 00 292 100 47 46 05

356 111 21 05 03 00

Jul 22 00 360 75 29 29 03

819 166 22 04 03 00

Aug 22 00 933 361 174 170 19

736 135 24 05 03 00

Sep 22 00 01 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 68 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 20 02 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 412 60 04 00 00 00 Aug 20 168 22 01 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 03 01 00 00 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 810 143 12 01 00 00 Aug 22 872 151 17 01 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 69 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 6800 1193 0659 0419 0082 0072 2452 1384 0608 0093 0004 0004 Feb 13 0276 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0425 0307 0162 0025 0002 0002 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0027 0027 0012 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0198 0198 0077 0004 0000 0000

Jan 23 25577 8034 5143 3763 1417 1367 20970 1390 8337 3131 0373 0370 Feb 23 2206 0401 0188 0098 0001 0001 8255 7122 4599 1179 0125 0125 Mar 23 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0455 0455 0209 0019 0001 0001 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0004 0004 0001 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0145 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 2410 2383 1206 0146 0013 0013

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 70 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0480 0366 0192 0136 0134 0066 1794 1086 0550 0257 0223 0059 Jul 13 1090 0595 0295 0211 0206 0087 3470 1914 0866 0382 0329 0081 Aug 13 1414 1042 0592 0405 0393 0183 2520 1246 0583 0279 0244 0051 Sep 13 0022 0020 0007 0003 0003 0000 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 2158 1914 1449 1232 1223 0686 11327 8482 6147 4024 3772 1983 Jul 23 4880 4228 2975 2345 2232 1011 22882 1640 1132 7462 6937 3328 Aug 23 5764 4995 3535 2966 2831 1607 16530 1132 7842 5252 4936 2134 Sep 23 0326 0226 0119 0091 0090 0052 0321 0075 0029 0013 0012 0001 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 71 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc Jan 13 0184 0078 0031 0014 0004 0003

Feb 13 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 13 0009 0007 0005 0002 0000 0000

May 13 0002 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jul 13 1084 0317 0107 0048 0014 0003

Aug 13 1034 0513 0204 0084 0020 0003

Sep 13 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Oct 13 0009 0006 0004 0002 0000 0000

Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 3359 1851 0990 0513 0222 0162

Feb 23 0173 0066 0015 0003 0000 0000

Mar 23 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 23 0427 0369 0295 0217 0133 0051

May 23 0202 0143 0067 0020 0003 0001

Jun 23 0009 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jul 23 5457 3647 2468 1735 0984 0425

Aug 23 5383 3908 2596 1843 0882 0363

Sep 23 0311 0172 0059 0018 0004 0000

Oct 23 0239 0195 0137 0082 0034 0016

Nov 23 0498 0460 0401 0306 0198 0132

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 72 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 49199 8644 3784 2030 188 160 3125 2058 611 86 02 02 Feb 13 533 01 00 00 00 00 371 245 120 15 01 01 Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 14 14 05 00 00 00 Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 102 102 39 02 00 00

Jan 23 27107 8184 4667 3224 11215 1079 47773 3730 1673 5636 373 363 Feb 23 14134 2090 637 228 03 02 11992 9750 5283 1208 82 81 Mar 23 01 00 00 00 00 00 281 281 122 09 00 00 Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Aug 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 03 03 00 00 00 00 Sep 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Dec 23 216 00 00 00 00 00 1680 1660 809 99 08 08

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 73 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

New England New York CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 13 4808 4409 2517 1799 1786 698 12568 6175 2756 1181 1011 187

Jul 13 10074 7005 3657 2415 2356 701 25985 1037 4083 1629 1362 229

Aug 13 15213 1354 7682 5342 5265 2122 21464 8156 3465 1601 1398 191

Sep 13 124 118 37 16 16 02 14 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 00 00 00 00

Feb 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 23 38630 3769 2652 2079 20729 9602 142999 8982 5704 35408 32707 1305

Jul 23 75805 6813 4354 3217 31753 1353 292936 16983 10283 62175 56818 2079

Aug 23 10065 9661 6862 5405 53336 2715 237645 13435 8290 52673 48853 16148

Sep 23 3087 2801 1678 1221 1212 460 2017 453 153 57 48 02

Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 01 00 00 00

Dec 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 74 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Ontario CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 252 121 40 11 03 02

Feb 13 02 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 03 02 01 00 00 00

May 13 09 05 01 00 00 00

Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jul 13 10319 2982 976 359 75 12

Aug 13 8851 3834 1446 517 85 12

Sep 13 11 02 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 10 06 02 01 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 8279 4839 2027 673 238 154

Feb 23 312 122 25 03 00 00

Mar 23 02 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 272 219 161 91 37 10

May 23 1103 756 334 93 16 06

Jun 23 36 11 02 00 00 00

Jul 23 84551 53152 33941 21124 8344 3101

Aug 23 69062 49778 31530 18895 6344 2266

Sep 23 1940 1081 386 107 18 01

Oct 23 512 348 158 49 12 04

Nov 23 391 336 264 169 92 49

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 61 Final Report

2022 (13) 2022 (23) SUMMARY TABLE Annual Annual

Net Energy for Load (GWh) 196519 204518 Total Internal Demand (MW) 41283 42964 90th Percentile ( above 5050 forecast) + 10 + 10 Net Internal Demand (MW) 39739 41420 Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) 41627 41627 Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) 40917 40917 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) 16004 1079364 Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (ppm) 0081 5278 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) 0072 1368 Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () 48 05 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () 30 -12

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 62 Final Report

Appendix F Definitions

Net Energy for Load (GWh) Energy Modeled (Input) Total Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load (Input)

Demand-Side Management ndash Available Sum of DCLM Interruptible Load CPP Load as Cap (from Form A) (Not probabilistic data)

Net Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load - Demand-Side Management ndash Available Capacity Expected on Peak Sum of capacity by type modeled in probabilistic (Input) Net Firm ImportExports Input Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) Capacity Expected on Peak + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Weighted average forced outage Input based on weighted EFOR by Area Operable Capacity Resources Sum of capacity expected on peak weighted average forced outage rate by type Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) Operable Capacity Resources + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) Result (Input) Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) Result (Input) Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () Forecast Capacity ResourcesNet Internal Demand ndash 1 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () Forecast Operable Capacity Resources Net Internal Demand ndash 1

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 63 Final Report

Appendix G Monthly Results

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0281 0011 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0011 0003 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0022 0006 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0062 0020 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 1184 0066 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0093 0038 0002 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0013 0005 0001 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0014 0004 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 64 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0020 0008 0004 0004 0001 0016 0007 0001 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0126 0061 0036 0035 0008 0177 0081 0011 0004 0003 0000 Aug 20 0000 0170 0100 0066 0066 0018 0084 0039 0009 0004 0003 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0039 0017 0009 0009 0001 0099 0046 0008 0002 0001 0000 Jul 22 0000 0053 0015 0006 0006 0001 0191 0066 0010 0002 0001 0000 Aug 22 0000 0109 0053 0029 0029 0005 0143 0042 0008 0002 0001 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 65 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0017 0009 0002 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0094 0013 0001 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0033 0004 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0154 0026 0003 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0133 0025 0004 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 66 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 534 01 00 00 00 00 00 04 01 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 02 00 00 00 Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 26 08 00 00 00

Jan 22 5150 143 07 01 00 00 00 58 20 01 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 04 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 06 02 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 67 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 20 00 131 45 22 22 03

47 14 03 01 00 00

Jul 20 00 1003 397 208 207 34

695 176 28 07 05 00

Aug 20 00 1640 796 459 458 89

366 119 35 11 09 00

Sep 20 00 02 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 22 00 292 100 47 46 05

356 111 21 05 03 00

Jul 22 00 360 75 29 29 03

819 166 22 04 03 00

Aug 22 00 933 361 174 170 19

736 135 24 05 03 00

Sep 22 00 01 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 68 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 20 02 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 412 60 04 00 00 00 Aug 20 168 22 01 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 03 01 00 00 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 810 143 12 01 00 00 Aug 22 872 151 17 01 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 69 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 6800 1193 0659 0419 0082 0072 2452 1384 0608 0093 0004 0004 Feb 13 0276 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0425 0307 0162 0025 0002 0002 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0027 0027 0012 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0198 0198 0077 0004 0000 0000

Jan 23 25577 8034 5143 3763 1417 1367 20970 1390 8337 3131 0373 0370 Feb 23 2206 0401 0188 0098 0001 0001 8255 7122 4599 1179 0125 0125 Mar 23 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0455 0455 0209 0019 0001 0001 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0004 0004 0001 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0145 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 2410 2383 1206 0146 0013 0013

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 70 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0480 0366 0192 0136 0134 0066 1794 1086 0550 0257 0223 0059 Jul 13 1090 0595 0295 0211 0206 0087 3470 1914 0866 0382 0329 0081 Aug 13 1414 1042 0592 0405 0393 0183 2520 1246 0583 0279 0244 0051 Sep 13 0022 0020 0007 0003 0003 0000 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 2158 1914 1449 1232 1223 0686 11327 8482 6147 4024 3772 1983 Jul 23 4880 4228 2975 2345 2232 1011 22882 1640 1132 7462 6937 3328 Aug 23 5764 4995 3535 2966 2831 1607 16530 1132 7842 5252 4936 2134 Sep 23 0326 0226 0119 0091 0090 0052 0321 0075 0029 0013 0012 0001 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 71 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc Jan 13 0184 0078 0031 0014 0004 0003

Feb 13 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 13 0009 0007 0005 0002 0000 0000

May 13 0002 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jul 13 1084 0317 0107 0048 0014 0003

Aug 13 1034 0513 0204 0084 0020 0003

Sep 13 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Oct 13 0009 0006 0004 0002 0000 0000

Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 3359 1851 0990 0513 0222 0162

Feb 23 0173 0066 0015 0003 0000 0000

Mar 23 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 23 0427 0369 0295 0217 0133 0051

May 23 0202 0143 0067 0020 0003 0001

Jun 23 0009 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jul 23 5457 3647 2468 1735 0984 0425

Aug 23 5383 3908 2596 1843 0882 0363

Sep 23 0311 0172 0059 0018 0004 0000

Oct 23 0239 0195 0137 0082 0034 0016

Nov 23 0498 0460 0401 0306 0198 0132

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 72 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 49199 8644 3784 2030 188 160 3125 2058 611 86 02 02 Feb 13 533 01 00 00 00 00 371 245 120 15 01 01 Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 14 14 05 00 00 00 Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 102 102 39 02 00 00

Jan 23 27107 8184 4667 3224 11215 1079 47773 3730 1673 5636 373 363 Feb 23 14134 2090 637 228 03 02 11992 9750 5283 1208 82 81 Mar 23 01 00 00 00 00 00 281 281 122 09 00 00 Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Aug 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 03 03 00 00 00 00 Sep 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Dec 23 216 00 00 00 00 00 1680 1660 809 99 08 08

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 73 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

New England New York CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 13 4808 4409 2517 1799 1786 698 12568 6175 2756 1181 1011 187

Jul 13 10074 7005 3657 2415 2356 701 25985 1037 4083 1629 1362 229

Aug 13 15213 1354 7682 5342 5265 2122 21464 8156 3465 1601 1398 191

Sep 13 124 118 37 16 16 02 14 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 00 00 00 00

Feb 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 23 38630 3769 2652 2079 20729 9602 142999 8982 5704 35408 32707 1305

Jul 23 75805 6813 4354 3217 31753 1353 292936 16983 10283 62175 56818 2079

Aug 23 10065 9661 6862 5405 53336 2715 237645 13435 8290 52673 48853 16148

Sep 23 3087 2801 1678 1221 1212 460 2017 453 153 57 48 02

Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 01 00 00 00

Dec 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 74 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Ontario CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 252 121 40 11 03 02

Feb 13 02 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 03 02 01 00 00 00

May 13 09 05 01 00 00 00

Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jul 13 10319 2982 976 359 75 12

Aug 13 8851 3834 1446 517 85 12

Sep 13 11 02 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 10 06 02 01 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 8279 4839 2027 673 238 154

Feb 23 312 122 25 03 00 00

Mar 23 02 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 272 219 161 91 37 10

May 23 1103 756 334 93 16 06

Jun 23 36 11 02 00 00 00

Jul 23 84551 53152 33941 21124 8344 3101

Aug 23 69062 49778 31530 18895 6344 2266

Sep 23 1940 1081 386 107 18 01

Oct 23 512 348 158 49 12 04

Nov 23 391 336 264 169 92 49

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 62 Final Report

Appendix F Definitions

Net Energy for Load (GWh) Energy Modeled (Input) Total Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load (Input)

Demand-Side Management ndash Available Sum of DCLM Interruptible Load CPP Load as Cap (from Form A) (Not probabilistic data)

Net Internal Demand (MW) Peak Load - Demand-Side Management ndash Available Capacity Expected on Peak Sum of capacity by type modeled in probabilistic (Input) Net Firm ImportExports Input Forecast Capacity Resources (MW) Capacity Expected on Peak + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Weighted average forced outage Input based on weighted EFOR by Area Operable Capacity Resources Sum of capacity expected on peak weighted average forced outage rate by type Forecast Operable Capacity Resources (MW) Operable Capacity Resources + Net Firm ImportExports - Capacity Adjustments Expected Unsupplied Energy (EUE) (MWh) Result (Input) Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) (hoursyear) Result (Input) Forecast Planning Reserve Margin () Forecast Capacity ResourcesNet Internal Demand ndash 1 Forecast Operable Reserve Margin () Forecast Operable Capacity Resources Net Internal Demand ndash 1

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 63 Final Report

Appendix G Monthly Results

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0281 0011 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0011 0003 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0022 0006 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0062 0020 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 1184 0066 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0093 0038 0002 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0013 0005 0001 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0014 0004 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 64 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0020 0008 0004 0004 0001 0016 0007 0001 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0126 0061 0036 0035 0008 0177 0081 0011 0004 0003 0000 Aug 20 0000 0170 0100 0066 0066 0018 0084 0039 0009 0004 0003 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0039 0017 0009 0009 0001 0099 0046 0008 0002 0001 0000 Jul 22 0000 0053 0015 0006 0006 0001 0191 0066 0010 0002 0001 0000 Aug 22 0000 0109 0053 0029 0029 0005 0143 0042 0008 0002 0001 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 65 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0017 0009 0002 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0094 0013 0001 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0033 0004 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0154 0026 0003 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0133 0025 0004 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 66 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 534 01 00 00 00 00 00 04 01 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 02 00 00 00 Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 26 08 00 00 00

Jan 22 5150 143 07 01 00 00 00 58 20 01 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 04 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 06 02 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 67 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 20 00 131 45 22 22 03

47 14 03 01 00 00

Jul 20 00 1003 397 208 207 34

695 176 28 07 05 00

Aug 20 00 1640 796 459 458 89

366 119 35 11 09 00

Sep 20 00 02 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 22 00 292 100 47 46 05

356 111 21 05 03 00

Jul 22 00 360 75 29 29 03

819 166 22 04 03 00

Aug 22 00 933 361 174 170 19

736 135 24 05 03 00

Sep 22 00 01 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 68 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 20 02 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 412 60 04 00 00 00 Aug 20 168 22 01 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 03 01 00 00 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 810 143 12 01 00 00 Aug 22 872 151 17 01 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 69 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 6800 1193 0659 0419 0082 0072 2452 1384 0608 0093 0004 0004 Feb 13 0276 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0425 0307 0162 0025 0002 0002 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0027 0027 0012 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0198 0198 0077 0004 0000 0000

Jan 23 25577 8034 5143 3763 1417 1367 20970 1390 8337 3131 0373 0370 Feb 23 2206 0401 0188 0098 0001 0001 8255 7122 4599 1179 0125 0125 Mar 23 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0455 0455 0209 0019 0001 0001 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0004 0004 0001 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0145 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 2410 2383 1206 0146 0013 0013

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 70 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0480 0366 0192 0136 0134 0066 1794 1086 0550 0257 0223 0059 Jul 13 1090 0595 0295 0211 0206 0087 3470 1914 0866 0382 0329 0081 Aug 13 1414 1042 0592 0405 0393 0183 2520 1246 0583 0279 0244 0051 Sep 13 0022 0020 0007 0003 0003 0000 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 2158 1914 1449 1232 1223 0686 11327 8482 6147 4024 3772 1983 Jul 23 4880 4228 2975 2345 2232 1011 22882 1640 1132 7462 6937 3328 Aug 23 5764 4995 3535 2966 2831 1607 16530 1132 7842 5252 4936 2134 Sep 23 0326 0226 0119 0091 0090 0052 0321 0075 0029 0013 0012 0001 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 71 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc Jan 13 0184 0078 0031 0014 0004 0003

Feb 13 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 13 0009 0007 0005 0002 0000 0000

May 13 0002 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jul 13 1084 0317 0107 0048 0014 0003

Aug 13 1034 0513 0204 0084 0020 0003

Sep 13 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Oct 13 0009 0006 0004 0002 0000 0000

Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 3359 1851 0990 0513 0222 0162

Feb 23 0173 0066 0015 0003 0000 0000

Mar 23 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 23 0427 0369 0295 0217 0133 0051

May 23 0202 0143 0067 0020 0003 0001

Jun 23 0009 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jul 23 5457 3647 2468 1735 0984 0425

Aug 23 5383 3908 2596 1843 0882 0363

Sep 23 0311 0172 0059 0018 0004 0000

Oct 23 0239 0195 0137 0082 0034 0016

Nov 23 0498 0460 0401 0306 0198 0132

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 72 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 49199 8644 3784 2030 188 160 3125 2058 611 86 02 02 Feb 13 533 01 00 00 00 00 371 245 120 15 01 01 Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 14 14 05 00 00 00 Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 102 102 39 02 00 00

Jan 23 27107 8184 4667 3224 11215 1079 47773 3730 1673 5636 373 363 Feb 23 14134 2090 637 228 03 02 11992 9750 5283 1208 82 81 Mar 23 01 00 00 00 00 00 281 281 122 09 00 00 Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Aug 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 03 03 00 00 00 00 Sep 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Dec 23 216 00 00 00 00 00 1680 1660 809 99 08 08

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 73 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

New England New York CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 13 4808 4409 2517 1799 1786 698 12568 6175 2756 1181 1011 187

Jul 13 10074 7005 3657 2415 2356 701 25985 1037 4083 1629 1362 229

Aug 13 15213 1354 7682 5342 5265 2122 21464 8156 3465 1601 1398 191

Sep 13 124 118 37 16 16 02 14 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 00 00 00 00

Feb 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 23 38630 3769 2652 2079 20729 9602 142999 8982 5704 35408 32707 1305

Jul 23 75805 6813 4354 3217 31753 1353 292936 16983 10283 62175 56818 2079

Aug 23 10065 9661 6862 5405 53336 2715 237645 13435 8290 52673 48853 16148

Sep 23 3087 2801 1678 1221 1212 460 2017 453 153 57 48 02

Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 01 00 00 00

Dec 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 74 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Ontario CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 252 121 40 11 03 02

Feb 13 02 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 03 02 01 00 00 00

May 13 09 05 01 00 00 00

Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jul 13 10319 2982 976 359 75 12

Aug 13 8851 3834 1446 517 85 12

Sep 13 11 02 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 10 06 02 01 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 8279 4839 2027 673 238 154

Feb 23 312 122 25 03 00 00

Mar 23 02 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 272 219 161 91 37 10

May 23 1103 756 334 93 16 06

Jun 23 36 11 02 00 00 00

Jul 23 84551 53152 33941 21124 8344 3101

Aug 23 69062 49778 31530 18895 6344 2266

Sep 23 1940 1081 386 107 18 01

Oct 23 512 348 158 49 12 04

Nov 23 391 336 264 169 92 49

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 63 Final Report

Appendix G Monthly Results

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0281 0011 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0011 0003 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0022 0006 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0062 0020 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 1184 0066 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0093 0038 0002 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0013 0005 0001 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0014 0004 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 64 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0020 0008 0004 0004 0001 0016 0007 0001 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0126 0061 0036 0035 0008 0177 0081 0011 0004 0003 0000 Aug 20 0000 0170 0100 0066 0066 0018 0084 0039 0009 0004 0003 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0039 0017 0009 0009 0001 0099 0046 0008 0002 0001 0000 Jul 22 0000 0053 0015 0006 0006 0001 0191 0066 0010 0002 0001 0000 Aug 22 0000 0109 0053 0029 0029 0005 0143 0042 0008 0002 0001 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 65 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0017 0009 0002 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0094 0013 0001 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0033 0004 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0154 0026 0003 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0133 0025 0004 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 66 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 534 01 00 00 00 00 00 04 01 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 02 00 00 00 Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 26 08 00 00 00

Jan 22 5150 143 07 01 00 00 00 58 20 01 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 04 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 06 02 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 67 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 20 00 131 45 22 22 03

47 14 03 01 00 00

Jul 20 00 1003 397 208 207 34

695 176 28 07 05 00

Aug 20 00 1640 796 459 458 89

366 119 35 11 09 00

Sep 20 00 02 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 22 00 292 100 47 46 05

356 111 21 05 03 00

Jul 22 00 360 75 29 29 03

819 166 22 04 03 00

Aug 22 00 933 361 174 170 19

736 135 24 05 03 00

Sep 22 00 01 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 68 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 20 02 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 412 60 04 00 00 00 Aug 20 168 22 01 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 03 01 00 00 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 810 143 12 01 00 00 Aug 22 872 151 17 01 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 69 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 6800 1193 0659 0419 0082 0072 2452 1384 0608 0093 0004 0004 Feb 13 0276 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0425 0307 0162 0025 0002 0002 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0027 0027 0012 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0198 0198 0077 0004 0000 0000

Jan 23 25577 8034 5143 3763 1417 1367 20970 1390 8337 3131 0373 0370 Feb 23 2206 0401 0188 0098 0001 0001 8255 7122 4599 1179 0125 0125 Mar 23 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0455 0455 0209 0019 0001 0001 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0004 0004 0001 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0145 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 2410 2383 1206 0146 0013 0013

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 70 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0480 0366 0192 0136 0134 0066 1794 1086 0550 0257 0223 0059 Jul 13 1090 0595 0295 0211 0206 0087 3470 1914 0866 0382 0329 0081 Aug 13 1414 1042 0592 0405 0393 0183 2520 1246 0583 0279 0244 0051 Sep 13 0022 0020 0007 0003 0003 0000 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 2158 1914 1449 1232 1223 0686 11327 8482 6147 4024 3772 1983 Jul 23 4880 4228 2975 2345 2232 1011 22882 1640 1132 7462 6937 3328 Aug 23 5764 4995 3535 2966 2831 1607 16530 1132 7842 5252 4936 2134 Sep 23 0326 0226 0119 0091 0090 0052 0321 0075 0029 0013 0012 0001 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 71 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc Jan 13 0184 0078 0031 0014 0004 0003

Feb 13 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 13 0009 0007 0005 0002 0000 0000

May 13 0002 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jul 13 1084 0317 0107 0048 0014 0003

Aug 13 1034 0513 0204 0084 0020 0003

Sep 13 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Oct 13 0009 0006 0004 0002 0000 0000

Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 3359 1851 0990 0513 0222 0162

Feb 23 0173 0066 0015 0003 0000 0000

Mar 23 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 23 0427 0369 0295 0217 0133 0051

May 23 0202 0143 0067 0020 0003 0001

Jun 23 0009 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jul 23 5457 3647 2468 1735 0984 0425

Aug 23 5383 3908 2596 1843 0882 0363

Sep 23 0311 0172 0059 0018 0004 0000

Oct 23 0239 0195 0137 0082 0034 0016

Nov 23 0498 0460 0401 0306 0198 0132

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 72 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 49199 8644 3784 2030 188 160 3125 2058 611 86 02 02 Feb 13 533 01 00 00 00 00 371 245 120 15 01 01 Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 14 14 05 00 00 00 Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 102 102 39 02 00 00

Jan 23 27107 8184 4667 3224 11215 1079 47773 3730 1673 5636 373 363 Feb 23 14134 2090 637 228 03 02 11992 9750 5283 1208 82 81 Mar 23 01 00 00 00 00 00 281 281 122 09 00 00 Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Aug 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 03 03 00 00 00 00 Sep 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Dec 23 216 00 00 00 00 00 1680 1660 809 99 08 08

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 73 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

New England New York CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 13 4808 4409 2517 1799 1786 698 12568 6175 2756 1181 1011 187

Jul 13 10074 7005 3657 2415 2356 701 25985 1037 4083 1629 1362 229

Aug 13 15213 1354 7682 5342 5265 2122 21464 8156 3465 1601 1398 191

Sep 13 124 118 37 16 16 02 14 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 00 00 00 00

Feb 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 23 38630 3769 2652 2079 20729 9602 142999 8982 5704 35408 32707 1305

Jul 23 75805 6813 4354 3217 31753 1353 292936 16983 10283 62175 56818 2079

Aug 23 10065 9661 6862 5405 53336 2715 237645 13435 8290 52673 48853 16148

Sep 23 3087 2801 1678 1221 1212 460 2017 453 153 57 48 02

Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 01 00 00 00

Dec 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 74 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Ontario CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 252 121 40 11 03 02

Feb 13 02 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 03 02 01 00 00 00

May 13 09 05 01 00 00 00

Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jul 13 10319 2982 976 359 75 12

Aug 13 8851 3834 1446 517 85 12

Sep 13 11 02 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 10 06 02 01 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 8279 4839 2027 673 238 154

Feb 23 312 122 25 03 00 00

Mar 23 02 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 272 219 161 91 37 10

May 23 1103 756 334 93 16 06

Jun 23 36 11 02 00 00 00

Jul 23 84551 53152 33941 21124 8344 3101

Aug 23 69062 49778 31530 18895 6344 2266

Sep 23 1940 1081 386 107 18 01

Oct 23 512 348 158 49 12 04

Nov 23 391 336 264 169 92 49

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 64 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0020 0008 0004 0004 0001 0016 0007 0001 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0000 0126 0061 0036 0035 0008 0177 0081 0011 0004 0003 0000 Aug 20 0000 0170 0100 0066 0066 0018 0084 0039 0009 0004 0003 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0039 0017 0009 0009 0001 0099 0046 0008 0002 0001 0000 Jul 22 0000 0053 0015 0006 0006 0001 0191 0066 0010 0002 0001 0000 Aug 22 0000 0109 0053 0029 0029 0005 0143 0042 0008 0002 0001 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 65 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0017 0009 0002 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0094 0013 0001 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0033 0004 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0154 0026 0003 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0133 0025 0004 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 66 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 534 01 00 00 00 00 00 04 01 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 02 00 00 00 Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 26 08 00 00 00

Jan 22 5150 143 07 01 00 00 00 58 20 01 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 04 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 06 02 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 67 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 20 00 131 45 22 22 03

47 14 03 01 00 00

Jul 20 00 1003 397 208 207 34

695 176 28 07 05 00

Aug 20 00 1640 796 459 458 89

366 119 35 11 09 00

Sep 20 00 02 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 22 00 292 100 47 46 05

356 111 21 05 03 00

Jul 22 00 360 75 29 29 03

819 166 22 04 03 00

Aug 22 00 933 361 174 170 19

736 135 24 05 03 00

Sep 22 00 01 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 68 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 20 02 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 412 60 04 00 00 00 Aug 20 168 22 01 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 03 01 00 00 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 810 143 12 01 00 00 Aug 22 872 151 17 01 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 69 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 6800 1193 0659 0419 0082 0072 2452 1384 0608 0093 0004 0004 Feb 13 0276 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0425 0307 0162 0025 0002 0002 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0027 0027 0012 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0198 0198 0077 0004 0000 0000

Jan 23 25577 8034 5143 3763 1417 1367 20970 1390 8337 3131 0373 0370 Feb 23 2206 0401 0188 0098 0001 0001 8255 7122 4599 1179 0125 0125 Mar 23 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0455 0455 0209 0019 0001 0001 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0004 0004 0001 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0145 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 2410 2383 1206 0146 0013 0013

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 70 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0480 0366 0192 0136 0134 0066 1794 1086 0550 0257 0223 0059 Jul 13 1090 0595 0295 0211 0206 0087 3470 1914 0866 0382 0329 0081 Aug 13 1414 1042 0592 0405 0393 0183 2520 1246 0583 0279 0244 0051 Sep 13 0022 0020 0007 0003 0003 0000 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 2158 1914 1449 1232 1223 0686 11327 8482 6147 4024 3772 1983 Jul 23 4880 4228 2975 2345 2232 1011 22882 1640 1132 7462 6937 3328 Aug 23 5764 4995 3535 2966 2831 1607 16530 1132 7842 5252 4936 2134 Sep 23 0326 0226 0119 0091 0090 0052 0321 0075 0029 0013 0012 0001 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 71 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc Jan 13 0184 0078 0031 0014 0004 0003

Feb 13 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 13 0009 0007 0005 0002 0000 0000

May 13 0002 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jul 13 1084 0317 0107 0048 0014 0003

Aug 13 1034 0513 0204 0084 0020 0003

Sep 13 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Oct 13 0009 0006 0004 0002 0000 0000

Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 3359 1851 0990 0513 0222 0162

Feb 23 0173 0066 0015 0003 0000 0000

Mar 23 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 23 0427 0369 0295 0217 0133 0051

May 23 0202 0143 0067 0020 0003 0001

Jun 23 0009 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jul 23 5457 3647 2468 1735 0984 0425

Aug 23 5383 3908 2596 1843 0882 0363

Sep 23 0311 0172 0059 0018 0004 0000

Oct 23 0239 0195 0137 0082 0034 0016

Nov 23 0498 0460 0401 0306 0198 0132

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 72 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 49199 8644 3784 2030 188 160 3125 2058 611 86 02 02 Feb 13 533 01 00 00 00 00 371 245 120 15 01 01 Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 14 14 05 00 00 00 Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 102 102 39 02 00 00

Jan 23 27107 8184 4667 3224 11215 1079 47773 3730 1673 5636 373 363 Feb 23 14134 2090 637 228 03 02 11992 9750 5283 1208 82 81 Mar 23 01 00 00 00 00 00 281 281 122 09 00 00 Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Aug 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 03 03 00 00 00 00 Sep 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Dec 23 216 00 00 00 00 00 1680 1660 809 99 08 08

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 73 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

New England New York CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 13 4808 4409 2517 1799 1786 698 12568 6175 2756 1181 1011 187

Jul 13 10074 7005 3657 2415 2356 701 25985 1037 4083 1629 1362 229

Aug 13 15213 1354 7682 5342 5265 2122 21464 8156 3465 1601 1398 191

Sep 13 124 118 37 16 16 02 14 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 00 00 00 00

Feb 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 23 38630 3769 2652 2079 20729 9602 142999 8982 5704 35408 32707 1305

Jul 23 75805 6813 4354 3217 31753 1353 292936 16983 10283 62175 56818 2079

Aug 23 10065 9661 6862 5405 53336 2715 237645 13435 8290 52673 48853 16148

Sep 23 3087 2801 1678 1221 1212 460 2017 453 153 57 48 02

Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 01 00 00 00

Dec 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 74 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Ontario CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 252 121 40 11 03 02

Feb 13 02 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 03 02 01 00 00 00

May 13 09 05 01 00 00 00

Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jul 13 10319 2982 976 359 75 12

Aug 13 8851 3834 1446 517 85 12

Sep 13 11 02 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 10 06 02 01 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 8279 4839 2027 673 238 154

Feb 23 312 122 25 03 00 00

Mar 23 02 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 272 219 161 91 37 10

May 23 1103 756 334 93 16 06

Jun 23 36 11 02 00 00 00

Jul 23 84551 53152 33941 21124 8344 3101

Aug 23 69062 49778 31530 18895 6344 2266

Sep 23 1940 1081 386 107 18 01

Oct 23 512 348 158 49 12 04

Nov 23 391 336 264 169 92 49

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 65 Final Report

Base Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 20 0017 0009 0002 0000 0000 0000 May 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 20 0094 0013 0001 0000 0000 0000 Aug 20 0033 0004 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 20 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 20 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 22 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 22 0154 0026 0003 0000 0000 0000 Aug 22 0133 0025 0004 0000 0000 0000 Sep 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 22 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 66 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 534 01 00 00 00 00 00 04 01 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 02 00 00 00 Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 26 08 00 00 00

Jan 22 5150 143 07 01 00 00 00 58 20 01 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 04 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 06 02 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 67 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 20 00 131 45 22 22 03

47 14 03 01 00 00

Jul 20 00 1003 397 208 207 34

695 176 28 07 05 00

Aug 20 00 1640 796 459 458 89

366 119 35 11 09 00

Sep 20 00 02 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 22 00 292 100 47 46 05

356 111 21 05 03 00

Jul 22 00 360 75 29 29 03

819 166 22 04 03 00

Aug 22 00 933 361 174 170 19

736 135 24 05 03 00

Sep 22 00 01 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 68 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 20 02 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 412 60 04 00 00 00 Aug 20 168 22 01 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 03 01 00 00 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 810 143 12 01 00 00 Aug 22 872 151 17 01 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 69 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 6800 1193 0659 0419 0082 0072 2452 1384 0608 0093 0004 0004 Feb 13 0276 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0425 0307 0162 0025 0002 0002 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0027 0027 0012 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0198 0198 0077 0004 0000 0000

Jan 23 25577 8034 5143 3763 1417 1367 20970 1390 8337 3131 0373 0370 Feb 23 2206 0401 0188 0098 0001 0001 8255 7122 4599 1179 0125 0125 Mar 23 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0455 0455 0209 0019 0001 0001 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0004 0004 0001 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0145 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 2410 2383 1206 0146 0013 0013

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 70 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0480 0366 0192 0136 0134 0066 1794 1086 0550 0257 0223 0059 Jul 13 1090 0595 0295 0211 0206 0087 3470 1914 0866 0382 0329 0081 Aug 13 1414 1042 0592 0405 0393 0183 2520 1246 0583 0279 0244 0051 Sep 13 0022 0020 0007 0003 0003 0000 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 2158 1914 1449 1232 1223 0686 11327 8482 6147 4024 3772 1983 Jul 23 4880 4228 2975 2345 2232 1011 22882 1640 1132 7462 6937 3328 Aug 23 5764 4995 3535 2966 2831 1607 16530 1132 7842 5252 4936 2134 Sep 23 0326 0226 0119 0091 0090 0052 0321 0075 0029 0013 0012 0001 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 71 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc Jan 13 0184 0078 0031 0014 0004 0003

Feb 13 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 13 0009 0007 0005 0002 0000 0000

May 13 0002 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jul 13 1084 0317 0107 0048 0014 0003

Aug 13 1034 0513 0204 0084 0020 0003

Sep 13 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Oct 13 0009 0006 0004 0002 0000 0000

Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 3359 1851 0990 0513 0222 0162

Feb 23 0173 0066 0015 0003 0000 0000

Mar 23 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 23 0427 0369 0295 0217 0133 0051

May 23 0202 0143 0067 0020 0003 0001

Jun 23 0009 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jul 23 5457 3647 2468 1735 0984 0425

Aug 23 5383 3908 2596 1843 0882 0363

Sep 23 0311 0172 0059 0018 0004 0000

Oct 23 0239 0195 0137 0082 0034 0016

Nov 23 0498 0460 0401 0306 0198 0132

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 72 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 49199 8644 3784 2030 188 160 3125 2058 611 86 02 02 Feb 13 533 01 00 00 00 00 371 245 120 15 01 01 Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 14 14 05 00 00 00 Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 102 102 39 02 00 00

Jan 23 27107 8184 4667 3224 11215 1079 47773 3730 1673 5636 373 363 Feb 23 14134 2090 637 228 03 02 11992 9750 5283 1208 82 81 Mar 23 01 00 00 00 00 00 281 281 122 09 00 00 Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Aug 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 03 03 00 00 00 00 Sep 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Dec 23 216 00 00 00 00 00 1680 1660 809 99 08 08

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 73 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

New England New York CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 13 4808 4409 2517 1799 1786 698 12568 6175 2756 1181 1011 187

Jul 13 10074 7005 3657 2415 2356 701 25985 1037 4083 1629 1362 229

Aug 13 15213 1354 7682 5342 5265 2122 21464 8156 3465 1601 1398 191

Sep 13 124 118 37 16 16 02 14 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 00 00 00 00

Feb 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 23 38630 3769 2652 2079 20729 9602 142999 8982 5704 35408 32707 1305

Jul 23 75805 6813 4354 3217 31753 1353 292936 16983 10283 62175 56818 2079

Aug 23 10065 9661 6862 5405 53336 2715 237645 13435 8290 52673 48853 16148

Sep 23 3087 2801 1678 1221 1212 460 2017 453 153 57 48 02

Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 01 00 00 00

Dec 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 74 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Ontario CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 252 121 40 11 03 02

Feb 13 02 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 03 02 01 00 00 00

May 13 09 05 01 00 00 00

Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jul 13 10319 2982 976 359 75 12

Aug 13 8851 3834 1446 517 85 12

Sep 13 11 02 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 10 06 02 01 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 8279 4839 2027 673 238 154

Feb 23 312 122 25 03 00 00

Mar 23 02 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 272 219 161 91 37 10

May 23 1103 756 334 93 16 06

Jun 23 36 11 02 00 00 00

Jul 23 84551 53152 33941 21124 8344 3101

Aug 23 69062 49778 31530 18895 6344 2266

Sep 23 1940 1081 386 107 18 01

Oct 23 512 348 158 49 12 04

Nov 23 391 336 264 169 92 49

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 66 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 534 01 00 00 00 00 00 04 01 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 02 00 00 00 Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 26 08 00 00 00

Jan 22 5150 143 07 01 00 00 00 58 20 01 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 04 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 06 02 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 67 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 20 00 131 45 22 22 03

47 14 03 01 00 00

Jul 20 00 1003 397 208 207 34

695 176 28 07 05 00

Aug 20 00 1640 796 459 458 89

366 119 35 11 09 00

Sep 20 00 02 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 22 00 292 100 47 46 05

356 111 21 05 03 00

Jul 22 00 360 75 29 29 03

819 166 22 04 03 00

Aug 22 00 933 361 174 170 19

736 135 24 05 03 00

Sep 22 00 01 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 68 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 20 02 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 412 60 04 00 00 00 Aug 20 168 22 01 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 03 01 00 00 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 810 143 12 01 00 00 Aug 22 872 151 17 01 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 69 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 6800 1193 0659 0419 0082 0072 2452 1384 0608 0093 0004 0004 Feb 13 0276 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0425 0307 0162 0025 0002 0002 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0027 0027 0012 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0198 0198 0077 0004 0000 0000

Jan 23 25577 8034 5143 3763 1417 1367 20970 1390 8337 3131 0373 0370 Feb 23 2206 0401 0188 0098 0001 0001 8255 7122 4599 1179 0125 0125 Mar 23 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0455 0455 0209 0019 0001 0001 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0004 0004 0001 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0145 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 2410 2383 1206 0146 0013 0013

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 70 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0480 0366 0192 0136 0134 0066 1794 1086 0550 0257 0223 0059 Jul 13 1090 0595 0295 0211 0206 0087 3470 1914 0866 0382 0329 0081 Aug 13 1414 1042 0592 0405 0393 0183 2520 1246 0583 0279 0244 0051 Sep 13 0022 0020 0007 0003 0003 0000 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 2158 1914 1449 1232 1223 0686 11327 8482 6147 4024 3772 1983 Jul 23 4880 4228 2975 2345 2232 1011 22882 1640 1132 7462 6937 3328 Aug 23 5764 4995 3535 2966 2831 1607 16530 1132 7842 5252 4936 2134 Sep 23 0326 0226 0119 0091 0090 0052 0321 0075 0029 0013 0012 0001 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 71 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc Jan 13 0184 0078 0031 0014 0004 0003

Feb 13 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 13 0009 0007 0005 0002 0000 0000

May 13 0002 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jul 13 1084 0317 0107 0048 0014 0003

Aug 13 1034 0513 0204 0084 0020 0003

Sep 13 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Oct 13 0009 0006 0004 0002 0000 0000

Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 3359 1851 0990 0513 0222 0162

Feb 23 0173 0066 0015 0003 0000 0000

Mar 23 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 23 0427 0369 0295 0217 0133 0051

May 23 0202 0143 0067 0020 0003 0001

Jun 23 0009 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jul 23 5457 3647 2468 1735 0984 0425

Aug 23 5383 3908 2596 1843 0882 0363

Sep 23 0311 0172 0059 0018 0004 0000

Oct 23 0239 0195 0137 0082 0034 0016

Nov 23 0498 0460 0401 0306 0198 0132

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 72 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 49199 8644 3784 2030 188 160 3125 2058 611 86 02 02 Feb 13 533 01 00 00 00 00 371 245 120 15 01 01 Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 14 14 05 00 00 00 Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 102 102 39 02 00 00

Jan 23 27107 8184 4667 3224 11215 1079 47773 3730 1673 5636 373 363 Feb 23 14134 2090 637 228 03 02 11992 9750 5283 1208 82 81 Mar 23 01 00 00 00 00 00 281 281 122 09 00 00 Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Aug 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 03 03 00 00 00 00 Sep 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Dec 23 216 00 00 00 00 00 1680 1660 809 99 08 08

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 73 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

New England New York CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 13 4808 4409 2517 1799 1786 698 12568 6175 2756 1181 1011 187

Jul 13 10074 7005 3657 2415 2356 701 25985 1037 4083 1629 1362 229

Aug 13 15213 1354 7682 5342 5265 2122 21464 8156 3465 1601 1398 191

Sep 13 124 118 37 16 16 02 14 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 00 00 00 00

Feb 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 23 38630 3769 2652 2079 20729 9602 142999 8982 5704 35408 32707 1305

Jul 23 75805 6813 4354 3217 31753 1353 292936 16983 10283 62175 56818 2079

Aug 23 10065 9661 6862 5405 53336 2715 237645 13435 8290 52673 48853 16148

Sep 23 3087 2801 1678 1221 1212 460 2017 453 153 57 48 02

Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 01 00 00 00

Dec 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 74 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Ontario CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 252 121 40 11 03 02

Feb 13 02 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 03 02 01 00 00 00

May 13 09 05 01 00 00 00

Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jul 13 10319 2982 976 359 75 12

Aug 13 8851 3834 1446 517 85 12

Sep 13 11 02 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 10 06 02 01 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 8279 4839 2027 673 238 154

Feb 23 312 122 25 03 00 00

Mar 23 02 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 272 219 161 91 37 10

May 23 1103 756 334 93 16 06

Jun 23 36 11 02 00 00 00

Jul 23 84551 53152 33941 21124 8344 3101

Aug 23 69062 49778 31530 18895 6344 2266

Sep 23 1940 1081 386 107 18 01

Oct 23 512 348 158 49 12 04

Nov 23 391 336 264 169 92 49

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 67 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 20 00 131 45 22 22 03

47 14 03 01 00 00

Jul 20 00 1003 397 208 207 34

695 176 28 07 05 00

Aug 20 00 1640 796 459 458 89

366 119 35 11 09 00

Sep 20 00 02 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 22 00 292 100 47 46 05

356 111 21 05 03 00

Jul 22 00 360 75 29 29 03

819 166 22 04 03 00

Aug 22 00 933 361 174 170 19

736 135 24 05 03 00

Sep 22 00 01 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 68 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 20 02 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 412 60 04 00 00 00 Aug 20 168 22 01 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 03 01 00 00 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 810 143 12 01 00 00 Aug 22 872 151 17 01 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 69 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 6800 1193 0659 0419 0082 0072 2452 1384 0608 0093 0004 0004 Feb 13 0276 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0425 0307 0162 0025 0002 0002 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0027 0027 0012 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0198 0198 0077 0004 0000 0000

Jan 23 25577 8034 5143 3763 1417 1367 20970 1390 8337 3131 0373 0370 Feb 23 2206 0401 0188 0098 0001 0001 8255 7122 4599 1179 0125 0125 Mar 23 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0455 0455 0209 0019 0001 0001 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0004 0004 0001 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0145 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 2410 2383 1206 0146 0013 0013

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 70 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0480 0366 0192 0136 0134 0066 1794 1086 0550 0257 0223 0059 Jul 13 1090 0595 0295 0211 0206 0087 3470 1914 0866 0382 0329 0081 Aug 13 1414 1042 0592 0405 0393 0183 2520 1246 0583 0279 0244 0051 Sep 13 0022 0020 0007 0003 0003 0000 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 2158 1914 1449 1232 1223 0686 11327 8482 6147 4024 3772 1983 Jul 23 4880 4228 2975 2345 2232 1011 22882 1640 1132 7462 6937 3328 Aug 23 5764 4995 3535 2966 2831 1607 16530 1132 7842 5252 4936 2134 Sep 23 0326 0226 0119 0091 0090 0052 0321 0075 0029 0013 0012 0001 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 71 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc Jan 13 0184 0078 0031 0014 0004 0003

Feb 13 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 13 0009 0007 0005 0002 0000 0000

May 13 0002 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jul 13 1084 0317 0107 0048 0014 0003

Aug 13 1034 0513 0204 0084 0020 0003

Sep 13 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Oct 13 0009 0006 0004 0002 0000 0000

Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 3359 1851 0990 0513 0222 0162

Feb 23 0173 0066 0015 0003 0000 0000

Mar 23 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 23 0427 0369 0295 0217 0133 0051

May 23 0202 0143 0067 0020 0003 0001

Jun 23 0009 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jul 23 5457 3647 2468 1735 0984 0425

Aug 23 5383 3908 2596 1843 0882 0363

Sep 23 0311 0172 0059 0018 0004 0000

Oct 23 0239 0195 0137 0082 0034 0016

Nov 23 0498 0460 0401 0306 0198 0132

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 72 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 49199 8644 3784 2030 188 160 3125 2058 611 86 02 02 Feb 13 533 01 00 00 00 00 371 245 120 15 01 01 Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 14 14 05 00 00 00 Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 102 102 39 02 00 00

Jan 23 27107 8184 4667 3224 11215 1079 47773 3730 1673 5636 373 363 Feb 23 14134 2090 637 228 03 02 11992 9750 5283 1208 82 81 Mar 23 01 00 00 00 00 00 281 281 122 09 00 00 Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Aug 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 03 03 00 00 00 00 Sep 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Dec 23 216 00 00 00 00 00 1680 1660 809 99 08 08

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 73 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

New England New York CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 13 4808 4409 2517 1799 1786 698 12568 6175 2756 1181 1011 187

Jul 13 10074 7005 3657 2415 2356 701 25985 1037 4083 1629 1362 229

Aug 13 15213 1354 7682 5342 5265 2122 21464 8156 3465 1601 1398 191

Sep 13 124 118 37 16 16 02 14 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 00 00 00 00

Feb 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 23 38630 3769 2652 2079 20729 9602 142999 8982 5704 35408 32707 1305

Jul 23 75805 6813 4354 3217 31753 1353 292936 16983 10283 62175 56818 2079

Aug 23 10065 9661 6862 5405 53336 2715 237645 13435 8290 52673 48853 16148

Sep 23 3087 2801 1678 1221 1212 460 2017 453 153 57 48 02

Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 01 00 00 00

Dec 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 74 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Ontario CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 252 121 40 11 03 02

Feb 13 02 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 03 02 01 00 00 00

May 13 09 05 01 00 00 00

Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jul 13 10319 2982 976 359 75 12

Aug 13 8851 3834 1446 517 85 12

Sep 13 11 02 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 10 06 02 01 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 8279 4839 2027 673 238 154

Feb 23 312 122 25 03 00 00

Mar 23 02 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 272 219 161 91 37 10

May 23 1103 756 334 93 16 06

Jun 23 36 11 02 00 00 00

Jul 23 84551 53152 33941 21124 8344 3101

Aug 23 69062 49778 31530 18895 6344 2266

Sep 23 1940 1081 386 107 18 01

Oct 23 512 348 158 49 12 04

Nov 23 391 336 264 169 92 49

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 68 Final Report

Base Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth) Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Feb 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 20 02 01 00 00 00 00 May 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 20 412 60 04 00 00 00 Aug 20 168 22 01 00 00 00 Sep 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 20 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 22 03 01 00 00 00 00 Feb 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Mar 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Apr 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 22 810 143 12 01 00 00 Aug 22 872 151 17 01 00 00 Sep 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 22 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 22 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 69 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 6800 1193 0659 0419 0082 0072 2452 1384 0608 0093 0004 0004 Feb 13 0276 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0425 0307 0162 0025 0002 0002 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0027 0027 0012 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0198 0198 0077 0004 0000 0000

Jan 23 25577 8034 5143 3763 1417 1367 20970 1390 8337 3131 0373 0370 Feb 23 2206 0401 0188 0098 0001 0001 8255 7122 4599 1179 0125 0125 Mar 23 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0455 0455 0209 0019 0001 0001 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0004 0004 0001 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0145 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 2410 2383 1206 0146 0013 0013

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 70 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0480 0366 0192 0136 0134 0066 1794 1086 0550 0257 0223 0059 Jul 13 1090 0595 0295 0211 0206 0087 3470 1914 0866 0382 0329 0081 Aug 13 1414 1042 0592 0405 0393 0183 2520 1246 0583 0279 0244 0051 Sep 13 0022 0020 0007 0003 0003 0000 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 2158 1914 1449 1232 1223 0686 11327 8482 6147 4024 3772 1983 Jul 23 4880 4228 2975 2345 2232 1011 22882 1640 1132 7462 6937 3328 Aug 23 5764 4995 3535 2966 2831 1607 16530 1132 7842 5252 4936 2134 Sep 23 0326 0226 0119 0091 0090 0052 0321 0075 0029 0013 0012 0001 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 71 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc Jan 13 0184 0078 0031 0014 0004 0003

Feb 13 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 13 0009 0007 0005 0002 0000 0000

May 13 0002 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jul 13 1084 0317 0107 0048 0014 0003

Aug 13 1034 0513 0204 0084 0020 0003

Sep 13 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Oct 13 0009 0006 0004 0002 0000 0000

Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 3359 1851 0990 0513 0222 0162

Feb 23 0173 0066 0015 0003 0000 0000

Mar 23 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 23 0427 0369 0295 0217 0133 0051

May 23 0202 0143 0067 0020 0003 0001

Jun 23 0009 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jul 23 5457 3647 2468 1735 0984 0425

Aug 23 5383 3908 2596 1843 0882 0363

Sep 23 0311 0172 0059 0018 0004 0000

Oct 23 0239 0195 0137 0082 0034 0016

Nov 23 0498 0460 0401 0306 0198 0132

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 72 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 49199 8644 3784 2030 188 160 3125 2058 611 86 02 02 Feb 13 533 01 00 00 00 00 371 245 120 15 01 01 Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 14 14 05 00 00 00 Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 102 102 39 02 00 00

Jan 23 27107 8184 4667 3224 11215 1079 47773 3730 1673 5636 373 363 Feb 23 14134 2090 637 228 03 02 11992 9750 5283 1208 82 81 Mar 23 01 00 00 00 00 00 281 281 122 09 00 00 Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Aug 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 03 03 00 00 00 00 Sep 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Dec 23 216 00 00 00 00 00 1680 1660 809 99 08 08

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 73 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

New England New York CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 13 4808 4409 2517 1799 1786 698 12568 6175 2756 1181 1011 187

Jul 13 10074 7005 3657 2415 2356 701 25985 1037 4083 1629 1362 229

Aug 13 15213 1354 7682 5342 5265 2122 21464 8156 3465 1601 1398 191

Sep 13 124 118 37 16 16 02 14 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 00 00 00 00

Feb 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 23 38630 3769 2652 2079 20729 9602 142999 8982 5704 35408 32707 1305

Jul 23 75805 6813 4354 3217 31753 1353 292936 16983 10283 62175 56818 2079

Aug 23 10065 9661 6862 5405 53336 2715 237645 13435 8290 52673 48853 16148

Sep 23 3087 2801 1678 1221 1212 460 2017 453 153 57 48 02

Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 01 00 00 00

Dec 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 74 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Ontario CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 252 121 40 11 03 02

Feb 13 02 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 03 02 01 00 00 00

May 13 09 05 01 00 00 00

Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jul 13 10319 2982 976 359 75 12

Aug 13 8851 3834 1446 517 85 12

Sep 13 11 02 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 10 06 02 01 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 8279 4839 2027 673 238 154

Feb 23 312 122 25 03 00 00

Mar 23 02 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 272 219 161 91 37 10

May 23 1103 756 334 93 16 06

Jun 23 36 11 02 00 00 00

Jul 23 84551 53152 33941 21124 8344 3101

Aug 23 69062 49778 31530 18895 6344 2266

Sep 23 1940 1081 386 107 18 01

Oct 23 512 348 158 49 12 04

Nov 23 391 336 264 169 92 49

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 69 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Quebec Maritimes

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 6800 1193 0659 0419 0082 0072 2452 1384 0608 0093 0004 0004 Feb 13 0276 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0425 0307 0162 0025 0002 0002 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0027 0027 0012 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0198 0198 0077 0004 0000 0000

Jan 23 25577 8034 5143 3763 1417 1367 20970 1390 8337 3131 0373 0370 Feb 23 2206 0401 0188 0098 0001 0001 8255 7122 4599 1179 0125 0125 Mar 23 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0455 0455 0209 0019 0001 0001 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jul 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Aug 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0002 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 Sep 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0004 0004 0001 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0145 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 2410 2383 1206 0146 0013 0013

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 70 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0480 0366 0192 0136 0134 0066 1794 1086 0550 0257 0223 0059 Jul 13 1090 0595 0295 0211 0206 0087 3470 1914 0866 0382 0329 0081 Aug 13 1414 1042 0592 0405 0393 0183 2520 1246 0583 0279 0244 0051 Sep 13 0022 0020 0007 0003 0003 0000 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 2158 1914 1449 1232 1223 0686 11327 8482 6147 4024 3772 1983 Jul 23 4880 4228 2975 2345 2232 1011 22882 1640 1132 7462 6937 3328 Aug 23 5764 4995 3535 2966 2831 1607 16530 1132 7842 5252 4936 2134 Sep 23 0326 0226 0119 0091 0090 0052 0321 0075 0029 0013 0012 0001 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 71 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc Jan 13 0184 0078 0031 0014 0004 0003

Feb 13 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 13 0009 0007 0005 0002 0000 0000

May 13 0002 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jul 13 1084 0317 0107 0048 0014 0003

Aug 13 1034 0513 0204 0084 0020 0003

Sep 13 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Oct 13 0009 0006 0004 0002 0000 0000

Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 3359 1851 0990 0513 0222 0162

Feb 23 0173 0066 0015 0003 0000 0000

Mar 23 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 23 0427 0369 0295 0217 0133 0051

May 23 0202 0143 0067 0020 0003 0001

Jun 23 0009 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jul 23 5457 3647 2468 1735 0984 0425

Aug 23 5383 3908 2596 1843 0882 0363

Sep 23 0311 0172 0059 0018 0004 0000

Oct 23 0239 0195 0137 0082 0034 0016

Nov 23 0498 0460 0401 0306 0198 0132

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 72 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 49199 8644 3784 2030 188 160 3125 2058 611 86 02 02 Feb 13 533 01 00 00 00 00 371 245 120 15 01 01 Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 14 14 05 00 00 00 Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 102 102 39 02 00 00

Jan 23 27107 8184 4667 3224 11215 1079 47773 3730 1673 5636 373 363 Feb 23 14134 2090 637 228 03 02 11992 9750 5283 1208 82 81 Mar 23 01 00 00 00 00 00 281 281 122 09 00 00 Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Aug 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 03 03 00 00 00 00 Sep 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Dec 23 216 00 00 00 00 00 1680 1660 809 99 08 08

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 73 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

New England New York CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 13 4808 4409 2517 1799 1786 698 12568 6175 2756 1181 1011 187

Jul 13 10074 7005 3657 2415 2356 701 25985 1037 4083 1629 1362 229

Aug 13 15213 1354 7682 5342 5265 2122 21464 8156 3465 1601 1398 191

Sep 13 124 118 37 16 16 02 14 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 00 00 00 00

Feb 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 23 38630 3769 2652 2079 20729 9602 142999 8982 5704 35408 32707 1305

Jul 23 75805 6813 4354 3217 31753 1353 292936 16983 10283 62175 56818 2079

Aug 23 10065 9661 6862 5405 53336 2715 237645 13435 8290 52673 48853 16148

Sep 23 3087 2801 1678 1221 1212 460 2017 453 153 57 48 02

Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 01 00 00 00

Dec 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 74 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Ontario CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 252 121 40 11 03 02

Feb 13 02 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 03 02 01 00 00 00

May 13 09 05 01 00 00 00

Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jul 13 10319 2982 976 359 75 12

Aug 13 8851 3834 1446 517 85 12

Sep 13 11 02 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 10 06 02 01 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 8279 4839 2027 673 238 154

Feb 23 312 122 25 03 00 00

Mar 23 02 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 272 219 161 91 37 10

May 23 1103 756 334 93 16 06

Jun 23 36 11 02 00 00 00

Jul 23 84551 53152 33941 21124 8344 3101

Aug 23 69062 49778 31530 18895 6344 2266

Sep 23 1940 1081 386 107 18 01

Oct 23 512 348 158 49 12 04

Nov 23 391 336 264 169 92 49

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 70 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

New England New York

CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-min VR 10-

min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 13 0480 0366 0192 0136 0134 0066 1794 1086 0550 0257 0223 0059 Jul 13 1090 0595 0295 0211 0206 0087 3470 1914 0866 0382 0329 0081 Aug 13 1414 1042 0592 0405 0393 0183 2520 1246 0583 0279 0244 0051 Sep 13 0022 0020 0007 0003 0003 0000 0005 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Oct 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Feb 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Mar 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Apr 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 May 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Jun 23 2158 1914 1449 1232 1223 0686 11327 8482 6147 4024 3772 1983 Jul 23 4880 4228 2975 2345 2232 1011 22882 1640 1132 7462 6937 3328 Aug 23 5764 4995 3535 2966 2831 1607 16530 1132 7842 5252 4936 2134 Sep 23 0326 0226 0119 0091 0090 0052 0321 0075 0029 0013 0012 0001 Oct 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Nov 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 Dec 23 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 71 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc Jan 13 0184 0078 0031 0014 0004 0003

Feb 13 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 13 0009 0007 0005 0002 0000 0000

May 13 0002 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jul 13 1084 0317 0107 0048 0014 0003

Aug 13 1034 0513 0204 0084 0020 0003

Sep 13 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Oct 13 0009 0006 0004 0002 0000 0000

Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 3359 1851 0990 0513 0222 0162

Feb 23 0173 0066 0015 0003 0000 0000

Mar 23 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 23 0427 0369 0295 0217 0133 0051

May 23 0202 0143 0067 0020 0003 0001

Jun 23 0009 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jul 23 5457 3647 2468 1735 0984 0425

Aug 23 5383 3908 2596 1843 0882 0363

Sep 23 0311 0172 0059 0018 0004 0000

Oct 23 0239 0195 0137 0082 0034 0016

Nov 23 0498 0460 0401 0306 0198 0132

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 72 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 49199 8644 3784 2030 188 160 3125 2058 611 86 02 02 Feb 13 533 01 00 00 00 00 371 245 120 15 01 01 Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 14 14 05 00 00 00 Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 102 102 39 02 00 00

Jan 23 27107 8184 4667 3224 11215 1079 47773 3730 1673 5636 373 363 Feb 23 14134 2090 637 228 03 02 11992 9750 5283 1208 82 81 Mar 23 01 00 00 00 00 00 281 281 122 09 00 00 Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Aug 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 03 03 00 00 00 00 Sep 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Dec 23 216 00 00 00 00 00 1680 1660 809 99 08 08

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 73 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

New England New York CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 13 4808 4409 2517 1799 1786 698 12568 6175 2756 1181 1011 187

Jul 13 10074 7005 3657 2415 2356 701 25985 1037 4083 1629 1362 229

Aug 13 15213 1354 7682 5342 5265 2122 21464 8156 3465 1601 1398 191

Sep 13 124 118 37 16 16 02 14 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 00 00 00 00

Feb 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 23 38630 3769 2652 2079 20729 9602 142999 8982 5704 35408 32707 1305

Jul 23 75805 6813 4354 3217 31753 1353 292936 16983 10283 62175 56818 2079

Aug 23 10065 9661 6862 5405 53336 2715 237645 13435 8290 52673 48853 16148

Sep 23 3087 2801 1678 1221 1212 460 2017 453 153 57 48 02

Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 01 00 00 00

Dec 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 74 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Ontario CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 252 121 40 11 03 02

Feb 13 02 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 03 02 01 00 00 00

May 13 09 05 01 00 00 00

Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jul 13 10319 2982 976 359 75 12

Aug 13 8851 3834 1446 517 85 12

Sep 13 11 02 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 10 06 02 01 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 8279 4839 2027 673 238 154

Feb 23 312 122 25 03 00 00

Mar 23 02 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 272 219 161 91 37 10

May 23 1103 756 334 93 16 06

Jun 23 36 11 02 00 00 00

Jul 23 84551 53152 33941 21124 8344 3101

Aug 23 69062 49778 31530 18895 6344 2266

Sep 23 1940 1081 386 107 18 01

Oct 23 512 348 158 49 12 04

Nov 23 391 336 264 169 92 49

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 71 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly LOLH

Expected Need for EOPs (hoursmonth)

Ontario

CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc Jan 13 0184 0078 0031 0014 0004 0003

Feb 13 0002 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Mar 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 13 0009 0007 0005 0002 0000 0000

May 13 0002 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jun 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jul 13 1084 0317 0107 0048 0014 0003

Aug 13 1034 0513 0204 0084 0020 0003

Sep 13 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Oct 13 0009 0006 0004 0002 0000 0000

Nov 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Dec 13 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

Jan 23 3359 1851 0990 0513 0222 0162

Feb 23 0173 0066 0015 0003 0000 0000

Mar 23 0001 0001 0000 0000 0000 0000

Apr 23 0427 0369 0295 0217 0133 0051

May 23 0202 0143 0067 0020 0003 0001

Jun 23 0009 0003 0001 0000 0000 0000

Jul 23 5457 3647 2468 1735 0984 0425

Aug 23 5383 3908 2596 1843 0882 0363

Sep 23 0311 0172 0059 0018 0004 0000

Oct 23 0239 0195 0137 0082 0034 0016

Nov 23 0498 0460 0401 0306 0198 0132

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 72 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 49199 8644 3784 2030 188 160 3125 2058 611 86 02 02 Feb 13 533 01 00 00 00 00 371 245 120 15 01 01 Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 14 14 05 00 00 00 Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 102 102 39 02 00 00

Jan 23 27107 8184 4667 3224 11215 1079 47773 3730 1673 5636 373 363 Feb 23 14134 2090 637 228 03 02 11992 9750 5283 1208 82 81 Mar 23 01 00 00 00 00 00 281 281 122 09 00 00 Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Aug 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 03 03 00 00 00 00 Sep 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Dec 23 216 00 00 00 00 00 1680 1660 809 99 08 08

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 73 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

New England New York CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 13 4808 4409 2517 1799 1786 698 12568 6175 2756 1181 1011 187

Jul 13 10074 7005 3657 2415 2356 701 25985 1037 4083 1629 1362 229

Aug 13 15213 1354 7682 5342 5265 2122 21464 8156 3465 1601 1398 191

Sep 13 124 118 37 16 16 02 14 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 00 00 00 00

Feb 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 23 38630 3769 2652 2079 20729 9602 142999 8982 5704 35408 32707 1305

Jul 23 75805 6813 4354 3217 31753 1353 292936 16983 10283 62175 56818 2079

Aug 23 10065 9661 6862 5405 53336 2715 237645 13435 8290 52673 48853 16148

Sep 23 3087 2801 1678 1221 1212 460 2017 453 153 57 48 02

Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 01 00 00 00

Dec 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 74 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Ontario CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 252 121 40 11 03 02

Feb 13 02 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 03 02 01 00 00 00

May 13 09 05 01 00 00 00

Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jul 13 10319 2982 976 359 75 12

Aug 13 8851 3834 1446 517 85 12

Sep 13 11 02 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 10 06 02 01 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 8279 4839 2027 673 238 154

Feb 23 312 122 25 03 00 00

Mar 23 02 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 272 219 161 91 37 10

May 23 1103 756 334 93 16 06

Jun 23 36 11 02 00 00 00

Jul 23 84551 53152 33941 21124 8344 3101

Aug 23 69062 49778 31530 18895 6344 2266

Sep 23 1940 1081 386 107 18 01

Oct 23 512 348 158 49 12 04

Nov 23 391 336 264 169 92 49

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 72 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Quebec Maritimes CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 49199 8644 3784 2030 188 160 3125 2058 611 86 02 02 Feb 13 533 01 00 00 00 00 371 245 120 15 01 01 Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 14 14 05 00 00 00 Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Aug 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Sep 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 102 102 39 02 00 00

Jan 23 27107 8184 4667 3224 11215 1079 47773 3730 1673 5636 373 363 Feb 23 14134 2090 637 228 03 02 11992 9750 5283 1208 82 81 Mar 23 01 00 00 00 00 00 281 281 122 09 00 00 Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jun 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Jul 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Aug 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 03 03 00 00 00 00 Sep 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 00 00 Dec 23 216 00 00 00 00 00 1680 1660 809 99 08 08

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 73 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

New England New York CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 13 4808 4409 2517 1799 1786 698 12568 6175 2756 1181 1011 187

Jul 13 10074 7005 3657 2415 2356 701 25985 1037 4083 1629 1362 229

Aug 13 15213 1354 7682 5342 5265 2122 21464 8156 3465 1601 1398 191

Sep 13 124 118 37 16 16 02 14 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 00 00 00 00

Feb 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 23 38630 3769 2652 2079 20729 9602 142999 8982 5704 35408 32707 1305

Jul 23 75805 6813 4354 3217 31753 1353 292936 16983 10283 62175 56818 2079

Aug 23 10065 9661 6862 5405 53336 2715 237645 13435 8290 52673 48853 16148

Sep 23 3087 2801 1678 1221 1212 460 2017 453 153 57 48 02

Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 01 00 00 00

Dec 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 74 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Ontario CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 252 121 40 11 03 02

Feb 13 02 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 03 02 01 00 00 00

May 13 09 05 01 00 00 00

Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jul 13 10319 2982 976 359 75 12

Aug 13 8851 3834 1446 517 85 12

Sep 13 11 02 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 10 06 02 01 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 8279 4839 2027 673 238 154

Feb 23 312 122 25 03 00 00

Mar 23 02 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 272 219 161 91 37 10

May 23 1103 756 334 93 16 06

Jun 23 36 11 02 00 00 00

Jul 23 84551 53152 33941 21124 8344 3101

Aug 23 69062 49778 31530 18895 6344 2266

Sep 23 1940 1081 386 107 18 01

Oct 23 512 348 158 49 12 04

Nov 23 391 336 264 169 92 49

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 73 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

New England New York CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc CurLd 30-

min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Feb 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 13 4808 4409 2517 1799 1786 698 12568 6175 2756 1181 1011 187

Jul 13 10074 7005 3657 2415 2356 701 25985 1037 4083 1629 1362 229

Aug 13 15213 1354 7682 5342 5265 2122 21464 8156 3465 1601 1398 191

Sep 13 124 118 37 16 16 02 14 00 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 00 00 00 00

Feb 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

May 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jun 23 38630 3769 2652 2079 20729 9602 142999 8982 5704 35408 32707 1305

Jul 23 75805 6813 4354 3217 31753 1353 292936 16983 10283 62175 56818 2079

Aug 23 10065 9661 6862 5405 53336 2715 237645 13435 8290 52673 48853 16148

Sep 23 3087 2801 1678 1221 1212 460 2017 453 153 57 48 02

Oct 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Nov 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 01 01 00 00 00

Dec 23 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 74 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Ontario CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 252 121 40 11 03 02

Feb 13 02 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 03 02 01 00 00 00

May 13 09 05 01 00 00 00

Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jul 13 10319 2982 976 359 75 12

Aug 13 8851 3834 1446 517 85 12

Sep 13 11 02 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 10 06 02 01 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 8279 4839 2027 673 238 154

Feb 23 312 122 25 03 00 00

Mar 23 02 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 272 219 161 91 37 10

May 23 1103 756 334 93 16 06

Jun 23 36 11 02 00 00 00

Jul 23 84551 53152 33941 21124 8344 3101

Aug 23 69062 49778 31530 18895 6344 2266

Sep 23 1940 1081 386 107 18 01

Oct 23 512 348 158 49 12 04

Nov 23 391 336 264 169 92 49

NERC Probabilistic Assessment ndash NPCC Region

NPCC ndash December 4 2018 (rev) 74 Final Report

Sensitivity Case Monthly EUE

Expected Need for EOPs (MWhmonth)

Ontario CurLd 30-min VR 10-min Appeal Disc

Jan 13 252 121 40 11 03 02

Feb 13 02 00 00 00 00 00

Mar 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 13 03 02 01 00 00 00

May 13 09 05 01 00 00 00

Jun 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jul 13 10319 2982 976 359 75 12

Aug 13 8851 3834 1446 517 85 12

Sep 13 11 02 00 00 00 00

Oct 13 10 06 02 01 00 00

Nov 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Dec 13 00 00 00 00 00 00

Jan 23 8279 4839 2027 673 238 154

Feb 23 312 122 25 03 00 00

Mar 23 02 00 00 00 00 00

Apr 23 272 219 161 91 37 10

May 23 1103 756 334 93 16 06

Jun 23 36 11 02 00 00 00

Jul 23 84551 53152 33941 21124 8344 3101

Aug 23 69062 49778 31530 18895 6344 2266

Sep 23 1940 1081 386 107 18 01

Oct 23 512 348 158 49 12 04

Nov 23 391 336 264 169 92 49