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1
Combating Natural Hazards
Along The China-Pakistan
Economic Corridor (CPEC)
Dr. Muhammad Jawed Iqbal HoD Transportation Engineering
School of Civil & Environmental Engineering (SCEE) National University of Sciences & Technology (NUST)
SEQUENCE
• Introduction / Background
• Revitalization of Silk Route
• Stages of Development for
CPEC Corridors
• Hazards Along CPEC
• Critical Sections
• Suggested Mitigation Strategy
2
3
Ancient Silk Route
Jamu & Kashmir
Disputed Territory
FLOW OF TRADING GOODS ON ANCIENT SILK ROUTE
To China
• Woolen Goods
• Carpets
• Curtains
• Blankets
• Rugs
• Horses
• Seeds of Lucerne and Grapes
From China
• Silk
• China – snow white vases
• Bowls
• Glasses
• Bronze Ornaments
• Ceramic
• Umbrellas
• Tea
• Rice
Existing Trade of China With Europe
Existing Distance from Central China 17820 Miles Existing Distance from Western China 19132 Miles Long Distance and High Cost 5
6
4
1
2
5
3
6
7
8
10
9
Top 20 Container Terminals and their Throughput (TEUs)
Revitalization of Silk Route Through Pakistan
• From Central China 6910 Miles distance is reduced
• From Western China 9535 Miles distance is reduced (Reduction by 1/2)
• 8 - 10 days Lead time is reduced
Existing GT Road
7
8
Eastern
China
Straights
of Makala
Western
Europe
Suez
Canal Pacific
Ocean
Atlantic
Ocean
Central
China
Immediate Zone of Influence - CPEC
• From Western China 9535 Miles distance is
reduced (Reduction by 1/2)
• 8 - 10 days Lead time is reduced
Western
China
9
Ultimate Zone of Influence - CPEC
Central China to New York City, Reduce Distance By
by 906 Km and lead time by 3-4 days as compared
to traditional Panama Canal Route
CHINA-PAKISTAN
ECONOMIC CORRIDOR
(CPEC)
10
11
12
Stages of Transformation from Transport Corridors to
Economic Corridors
13
Stages of Development for CPEC Corridors
14
15
16
17
SEISMIC ZONES OF PAKISTAN
BATURA GLACIER
PASU GLACIER
19
• Earthquake • Slope Instability (rock fall,Landslides) • Floods • Flash Floods • Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF)
NATURAL HAZARDS ALONG CPEC
20
Earthquake
21
SEISMIC ZONES OF PAKISTAN
22
Landslides
DAMAGES - KKH
Pattan
(257)
Barseen
(307)
Dasu
(297)
Keru
(275)
Kayal
Br(266)
Sazin
(352)
Looter
(326)
Abutment of Baily Br near Kayal
(RD-266) severely damaged
100 M portion washed away 300 m
ahead of Kayal Br
100 M portion of KKH washed away
at RD 275 ahead of Keru on 6 Apr 16
300 M portion of KKH washed away at
same loc on 7 Apr 16 (active slide)
KKH
Damaged Abutment
(RD 266) 100 m Rd Washed Away
(300 m ahead of Kayal Br)
300 m
80 m
Active Slide
30 M portion washed away at RD 298
near Dassu on 4 Apr 16
Thakot
(190)
Pattan
(257)
Batgram
(160)
Barseen
(307)
Raikot
(471)
Danyore
(545)
Sust
(720)
Khunjerab
(806)
To Hassan Abdal (0) Mansehra (94)
Tattap
ani
(468)
Besham
(218)
KKH
141
Dassu
(298)
Ganish
(633)
Jaglot
(501)
Passu
(683)
Looter
(326)
ACTIVE SLIDE AREAS - KKH
Sazin
(352)
Gilgit
(540)
Hasaabad
(624)
Alam Br (1)
Skardu (170)
Dambudas (106)
Shangus (52)
Spr Shaheed
Br (145)
Chilas
(417)
Slides
Slides
Slides
Most
Damaged Portion
1 x Slide per 1 Kms
Dih
(755)
Slides
Slides
Slides Slides
Slides
Slides Slides
Slides
Slides
Slides
Slides
Slides
BOULDERS ON KKH
Near Bunji (RD 485)
Near Shatial (RD 356+500)
26
130 m
200 m
Vol of slide mass over 50 Million cum (1.85 Billion cft)
KKH
Spread of the slide along the river - 1.50 to 2.0 km
20 - 30 m
26
River bed
350 - 400 m
ATTABAD LANDSLIDE Jan 6, 2010
Scar
N
LAKE TAPPING AT ATTABAD LANDSLIDE
DAM
Gulmat
Shishkat
Aniabad Attabad
FORMATION OF LAKE
Hussaini
August
2010
29
WORK DONE WITH CHINESE ASSISTANCE
30
Floods
31
32
Flash Floods
Flash Flood in Balochistan Area
33
34
CRITICAL SECTIONS
35
LANDSLIDE & EARTH QUAKE PRONE AREA
FLOOD PRONE AREA
FLASH FLOOD HAZARD
MAJOR HAZARDS ALONG CPEC
36
BOTTLE NECKS AT CPEC
CRITICAL BEING NO ALTERNATIVES
37
COUNTER MEASURE
STRATEGY
Need for Hazard Analysis • Following aspects need in-depth exploration:
– Seismic Hazards/Vulnerability Analysis
– Flood Hazard Analysis
– Landslide Hazard Analysis
– Forestation and Reforestation Analysis
– Snow and Debris Hazard Analysis
– Environmental Aspects Analysis
– Land Erosion Analysis
– Climate Change Impact on Glaciers - GLOF
38
Establishment of Centre of Excellence in Earth Sciences and Environment
Following type of data would be required:
– Environment Degradation
– Traffic volume & capacity and traffic flow within and across the international border
– Geotechnical aspects and Geological changes (e.g., landslides, avalanches, etc.)
– Seismic activity profiles
– Satellite Imaging of the area
39
– Meteorological/Weather Conditions (Precipitation and rates, climate change, glacier/snow related aspects, etc.)
– Water level, inflow, and outflow of rivers and reservoirs
– Security Concerns
– Disaster Risk Reduction, Mitigation and Management related aspects
– Miscellaneous related aspects, e.g. socio-economic aspects etc.
40
• Establishment of Inventory
– There is need to establish an inventory of the data centers located/already available all over Pakistan along the CPEC routes from Khunjerab all the way down to Gwadar.
– It is proposed that a center of excellence should manage this inventory as well as establish an efficient and rapid access to all the data depositories along the path of CPEC.
41
• Data Management
– The center may act as a liaison and a source to all the updated data.
– It is suggested that preferably the center of excellence owns a department which keeps all the data up to date, regulates and maintains it.
– A link to all the data depositories and a rapid accessibility to them are suggested to be established at this center.
– At later stage, arrangements could be made to establish a central data depository at the center for quickest access to data.
42
• Expertise Requirements for the Center of Excellence
– Meteorologists
– Geological experts
– Civil Engineers (Transportation, Geotechnical, Hydrological, Structural Engineers, etc.)
– GIS experts
– Environmental Engineers
– Disaster Management experts
– Miscellaneous related fields experts
43
GLIMPSES OF STUDIES CARRIED OUT AT SCEE, NUST
44
Landslide Susceptibility Mapping of Rawalakot
Using Remote Sensing and GIS
Zara Hassan and Javed Iqbal
Objectives:
The aim of the study was to produce
landslide susceptibility maps based on GIS
modeling and to conduct field surveys to get
the local community’s point of view about the
landslides.
Findings: The results showed 63% of the total
area of Rawalakot lies in the highly
susceptible zone.
Study Area
Debris flow and Rock fall Mitigation Measures
• The RAMMS model assist practitioners and researchers to simulate these gravitationally-driven natural hazards within one single software environment.
• The software includes four different process modules to predict
• (1) snow avalanches, (2) debris flows,
• (3) hillslope debris flows and (4) falling rocks.
MODELING AND SIMULATION OF GLACIER
AVALANCHE: A CASE STUDY OF GAYARI SECTOR
GLACIERS HAZARDS ASSESSMENT
AHSAN MAHBOOB AND JAVED IQBAL
PARAMETER MODEL OUTPUT VLAUES
Height (max) 45 (m)
Volume (Cal) 3814486(m3)
Velocity (max) 74(m/s)
Pressure (max) 5074(kPa)
Objectives:
1.Model and simulate the Gayari sector
glacier avalanche incident in terms of height,
extent, velocity, pressure and momentum,
2.Generate hazard risk assessment of
possible other glacier avalanches in the
Saltoro Valley through modeling & simulation
and
3.Suitability analysis of current military camp
sites and recommendation of new safe
camps sites locations in the Saltoro valley
Velocity (m/s) Pressure (kPa)
Momentum (m2/s) Debris Height (m)
50
THANK YOU
NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCES & TECHNOLOGY
51
Stages of Transformation from Transport Corridors to Economic Corridors
53
54
58
DAMAGES / REHAB & RESTORATION WORKS
KHH
60
300 M RD WASHED AWAY NEAR DASSU
Active Slide
62
GLOF ALONG KKH
64
GLOF
BATURA GLACIER
PASU GLACIER
Thakot
(190)
Pattan
(257)
Batgram
(160)
Barseen
(307)
Raikot
(471)
Danyore
(545)
Sust
(720)
Khunjerab
(806)
To Hassan Abdal (0) Mansehra (94)
Tattap
ani
(468)
Besham
(218)
KKH
141
Dassu
(298)
Ganish
(633)
Jaglot
(501)
Passu
(683)
Looter
(326)
KKH
Sazin
(352)
Gilgit
(540)
Sikandarabad
(593)
Alam Br (1)
Skardu (170)
Dambudas (106)
Shangus (52)
Spr Shaheed
Br (145)
Chilas
(417)
Ansar Camp (40)
67
Thakot
(190)
Pattan
(257)
Batgram
(160)
Barseen
(307)
Raikot
(471)
Danyore
(545)
Sust
(720)
Khunjerab
(806)
To Hassan Abdal (0) Mansehra (94)
Tattap
ani
(468)
Besham
(218)
KKH
141
Dassu
(298)
Ganish
(633)
Jaglot
(501)
Passu
(683)
Looter
(326)
ACTIVE SLIDE AREAS - KKH
Sazin
(352)
Gilgit
(540)
Hasaabad
(624)
Alam Br (1)
Skardu (170)
Dambudas (106)
Shangus (52)
Spr Shaheed
Br (145)
Chilas
(417)
Slides
Slides
Slides
Most
Damaged Portion
1 x Slide per 1 Kms
Dih
(755)
Slides
Slides
Slides Slides
Slides
Slides Slides
Slides
Slides
Slides
Slides
Slides