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N N ational ational T T ransfer ransfer A A ccounts ccounts National Transfer National Transfer Accounts: Goals, Accounts: Goals, Accomplishments, Accomplishments, Challenges Challenges Andrew Mason Andrew Mason January 2007 January 2007 Berkeley Berkeley

National Transfer Accounts: Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

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National Transfer Accounts: Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges. Andrew Mason January 2007 Berkeley. Outline of Talk. Brief overview of the project and National Transfer Accounts (NTA) Early results, issues, and difficulties Economic Lifecycle Reallocation Systems Bequests - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

NNational ational TTransfer ransfer

AAccountsccounts

National Transfer National Transfer Accounts: Goals, Accounts: Goals, Accomplishments, Accomplishments, ChallengesChallenges

Andrew MasonAndrew Mason

January 2007January 2007

BerkeleyBerkeley

Page 2: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

Outline of TalkOutline of Talk

►Brief overview of the project and Brief overview of the project and National Transfer Accounts (NTA)National Transfer Accounts (NTA)

►Early results, issues, and difficulties Early results, issues, and difficulties Economic LifecycleEconomic Lifecycle Reallocation SystemsReallocation Systems BequestsBequests Projecting or Simulating NTAProjecting or Simulating NTA Other IssuesOther Issues AccomplishmentsAccomplishments

Page 3: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

The Economic Lifecycle

0

100

200

300

400

500

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Age

Per

Cap

ita C

on

su

mp

tio

n a

nd

P

rod

ucti

on

Consumption

Labor Production

Surplus

Deficits

I. Overview of NTAI. Overview of NTA

Page 4: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

Project is Motivated by 3 Project is Motivated by 3 PointsPoints► Economic lifecycle is a pervasive feature of all Economic lifecycle is a pervasive feature of all

economies; it leads to the shift of large amounts of economies; it leads to the shift of large amounts of resources from the working ages to the dependent resources from the working ages to the dependent ages. ages.

► Reallocation systems are varied involving:Reallocation systems are varied involving: Public and private sectorsPublic and private sectors Investment, credit, and transfersInvestment, credit, and transfers

► Changes in population age structure interact with the Changes in population age structure interact with the economic lifecycle, the reallocation system, and economic lifecycle, the reallocation system, and public policy to influence:public policy to influence: economic growth,economic growth, intergenerational equity,intergenerational equity, saving, wealth, and other important features of the saving, wealth, and other important features of the

macroeconomy.macroeconomy.

Page 5: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

Goals of the NTA ProjectGoals of the NTA Project

► Develop a system of economic accounts that Develop a system of economic accounts that can be used to study the macroeconomic can be used to study the macroeconomic implications of aging.implications of aging.

► Estimate the accounts with historical depth Estimate the accounts with historical depth for economies with different cultures, levels for economies with different cultures, levels of development, economic systems and of development, economic systems and policies. policies.

► Analyze and explainAnalyze and explain variation in the economic lifecycle and the variation in the economic lifecycle and the

reallocation systems,reallocation systems, macroeconomic effects of population aging,macroeconomic effects of population aging, economic implications of pension, health care, economic implications of pension, health care,

education, child subsidies, and other policy.education, child subsidies, and other policy.

Page 6: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

Important Features of Important Features of National Transfer AccountsNational Transfer Accounts►Comprehensive approach:Comprehensive approach:

All mechanisms for shifting resources All mechanisms for shifting resources from one age group to another are from one age group to another are incorporated into the accounts. incorporated into the accounts.

Both public and private institutions are Both public and private institutions are incorporated. The role of the family is incorporated. The role of the family is emphasized. emphasized.

►NTA is consistent with and NTA is consistent with and complementary to NIPA and GA.complementary to NIPA and GA.

Page 7: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

Important Features of NTAImportant Features of NTA

► NTA consists of 3 accountsNTA consists of 3 accounts Flow AccountFlow Account measures the economic flows to measures the economic flows to

and from each age group during a calendar or and from each age group during a calendar or fiscal year.fiscal year.

Wealth AccountWealth Account measures the wealth associated measures the wealth associated with each flow – assets and transfer wealth.with each flow – assets and transfer wealth.

Wealth Revaluation AccountWealth Revaluation Account measures the measures the changes in wealth due to changes in asset changes in wealth due to changes in asset prices, interest rates, and public policy.prices, interest rates, and public policy.

► Emphasis to date and in this presentation is Emphasis to date and in this presentation is on the flow account. on the flow account.

Page 8: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

The Flow Account IdentityThe Flow Account Identity

► InflowsInflows Labor IncomeLabor Income Asset IncomeAsset Income Transfer InflowsTransfer Inflows

► OutflowsOutflows ConsumptionConsumption SavingSaving Transfer OutflowsTransfer Outflows

Inflows Outflows

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )l aY a Y a a C a S a a

Lifecycle Deficit Asset-based Reallocations Net Transfers

Age Reallocations

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )l aC a Y a Y a S a a a

Page 9: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

Table 1. A Classification of NTA Reallocations.Table 1. A Classification of NTA Reallocations.

Asset-based ReallocationsAsset-based Reallocations

TransfersTransfers

Capital and Other Capital and Other Non-Financial Non-Financial

AssetsAssets CreditCredit

PublicPublicPublic infrastructurePublic infrastructurePublic land and sub-Public land and sub-soil mineralssoil minerals

Public debtPublic debtStudent loansStudent loans

MoneyMoney

Public educationPublic educationPublic health carePublic health careUnfunded pension Unfunded pension

plansplans

PrivatePrivate

HousingHousingConsumer durablesConsumer durables

Factories, FarmsFactories, FarmsPrivate land and Private land and sub-soil mineralssub-soil minerals

InventoriesInventories

Consumer creditConsumer credit

Familial support of Familial support of children and parentschildren and parents

BequestsBequestsCharitable Charitable

contributionscontributions

Source: Adapted from Lee 1994.Source: Adapted from Lee 1994.

Page 10: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

Figure 1. Economic Lifecycle, Developing World Profile.

0.000

0.200

0.400

0.600

0.800

1.000

1.200

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

Age

Co

nsu

mp

tion

an

d L

ab

or

Inco

me

, P

er

Ca

pita Consumption

Labor Income

Note. Values normalized on per capita labor income of persons 30-49.

II. The Economic Lifecycle.II. The Economic Lifecycle.

Note: Mean of values for Costa Rica 2004, Indonesia 1996, Taiwan 1977, and Thailand 1996. Source: Lee and Mason 2007.

Page 11: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

CountryCountry YearYear Early AgeEarly Age Later AgeLater Age DurationDuration

IndonesiaIndonesia 1996 1996 29 29 58 58 2929

ThailandThailand 1996 1996 26 26 61 61 3535

TaiwanTaiwan 1998 1998 24 24 56 56 3232

JapanJapan 1999 1999 29 29 61 61 3232

United StatesUnited States 2000 2000 27 27 59 59 3232

Costa RicaCosta Rica 2004 2004 24 24 57 57 3333

Lifecycle Deficit and Surplus Lifecycle Deficit and Surplus AgesAges

Span of surplus ages is about 3 decades.

No apparent relationship to development.

Page 12: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

Consumption

Developing Consumption Profile: Mean, Minimum, and Maximum. Based on Taiwan 1977, Thailand 1996, Costa Rica 2004, and Indonesia 1996.

Note. Normalized on mean of labor income for 30-49-year-olds. Source: Lee and Mason 2007.

Consumption profiles are relatively flatin developing countries.

Page 13: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

0.000

0.200

0.400

0.600

0.800

1.000

1.200

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

C(a

)/Y

l(30

-49)

Range for developing countries

US

Japan

More on education

More on elderly (health care)

Consumption Profiles: Consumption Profiles: Industrialized vs Developing Industrialized vs Developing Countries.Countries.

Page 14: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

Developing Labor Income Profile: Mean, Minimum, and Maximum. Based on Taiwan 1977, Thailand 1996, Costa Rica 2004, and Indonesia 1996.

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

Yl(a)/Y

l(30-4

9)

Page 15: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

Labor Income: Industrialized vs Labor Income: Industrialized vs Developing Countries.Developing Countries.

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

Developing

Japan

US

Higher Yl in the 50-59 age group

Page 16: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

Challenges and Issues: Challenges and Issues: MethodologicalMethodological►ConsumptionConsumption

What are the best methods for estimating What are the best methods for estimating private health expenditure age profiles?private health expenditure age profiles?

Should cost of childbearing be allocated to Should cost of childbearing be allocated to the mother or to the child? the mother or to the child?

►Labor IncomeLabor Income How do we estimate and incorporate How do we estimate and incorporate

deferred compensation?deferred compensation? Should we worry about seniority-based Should we worry about seniority-based

wage systems, w(a) .ne. vmp(a)?wage systems, w(a) .ne. vmp(a)?

Page 17: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

Challenges and Issues: Challenges and Issues: SubstantiveSubstantive►How does tax force influence labor How does tax force influence labor

income profiles? (Refer to Gruber and income profiles? (Refer to Gruber and Wise)Wise)

►How do we model consumption How do we model consumption profiles?profiles? Life-cycle model (Lee, Mason, and Miller Life-cycle model (Lee, Mason, and Miller

SJE)SJE) Altruism model (Mason and Lee, NUPRI)Altruism model (Mason and Lee, NUPRI) Social planner model (work underway)Social planner model (work underway)

Page 18: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

Tax Force and Labor IncomeTax Force and Labor Income

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0 2 4 6 8 10

Tax Force (55-69)

Un

use

d C

apac

ity

Gruber& Wise

NTA

Japan US

France

Note: NTA measure is 1 – Yl(55-64)/Yl(30-49).

Page 19: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

Consumption by 3 generations in Consumption by 3 generations in Taiwan: Birth cohorts of 1915, 1945, & Taiwan: Birth cohorts of 1915, 1945, & 19751975

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Age

C(a

)/Y

l(30

-49)

1975

1945 1915

Note that generation length in Taiwan is 30 years; hence, this approximates C by children, parents,

and grandparents.

Children Parents Grandparents

Page 20: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

Consumption Superimposed: Consumption Superimposed: Birth cohorts of 1915, 1945, & Birth cohorts of 1915, 1945, & 19751975

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Age of 1945 cohort

C(a

)/Y

l(30

-49)

1975

1945

1915

Rapid growth in C by children (until age 20)

Matched by decline in C by parents and

grandparents

After age 21 consumption of 3 generations are virtually

identical

Page 21: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

Consumption Superimposed: Consumption Superimposed: Birth cohorts of 1915 & 1945Birth cohorts of 1915 & 1945

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Age of 1945 cohort

C(a

)/Y

l(30

-49)

1945

1915

Simple correlation between parent and grandparent

consumption is 0.95

Conclusion: Consumption by grandparents explained almost entirely by current labor income of parents and by

factors common to the parent and grandparent generations. Suggests a high degree of altruism.

Note that during this period Taiwan introduced both National Health Insurance and public pension programs.

Page 22: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

NT Flow Account, Aggregate. TaiwanNT Flow Account, Aggregate. Taiwan, 1998 (NT$ billion), , 1998 (NT$ billion), nominalnominal

AgeAge

   TotalTotal 0-190-19 20-2920-29 30-4930-49 50-6450-64 65+65+

Age ReallocationsAge Reallocations 525525 16711671 -13-13 -1500-1500 -25-25 391391

Asset-based Asset-based reallocationsreallocations 554554 -21-21 -213-213 362362 265265 160160

Asset IncomeAsset Income 21492149 44 180180 12591259 492492 212212

Less: SavingLess: Saving 1,5951,595 2525 393393 898898 227227 5252

TransfersTransfers -29-29 16921692 200200 -1862-1862 -290-290 231231

PublicPublic 22 436436 -15-15 -463-463 -77-77 121121

Private,Private, Intervivos Intervivos -31-31 12561256 146146 -1489-1489 -129-129 185185

BequestsBequests 00 00 6969 9090 -84-84 -75-75Source: Mason, Lee, Tung, Lai, and Miller, forthcoming.

III. The Age-Reallocation III. The Age-Reallocation SystemSystem

Page 23: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

Financing the Consumption of Financing the Consumption of ChildrenChildren

Figure 7. Finance of Consumption, Young DependentsAge 0-19

37.7

-1.20.0

25.1

56.671.7

3.85.8

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

USA (2000) Taiwan (1998)

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

Co

ns

um

pti

on

.

Public Transfers

Inter Vivos Transfers

Work

Asset Reallocations

Source: Mason, Lee, Tung, Lai, and Miller (forthcoming).

Reallocations to children dominated by transfers.Familial transfers moreimportant in Taiwan

than in the US.

Page 24: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

Old-Age Reallocation SystemsOld-Age Reallocation Systems

Saving

Public Transfers

FamilialTransfers

Traditional society?

Capital-based transformation

Social welfare transformation

Page 25: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

Old-Age Reallocation SystemsOld-Age Reallocation Systems

Saving

Public Transfers

FamilialTransfers

Mixed Strategies

50-50 familial and saving

50-50 familial and public

50-50 saving and public

Page 26: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

Old-age Reallocation System, Selected Countries.

0

50

75

100

75

75

50

50

25

25

0

0

25

100

100

Asset-based

(%)

Public

transfers (%)

Family Transfers (%)

US

US elderly rely on asset-based reallocations

and public transfers.

Page 27: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

Old-age Reallocation System, Selected Countries.

0

50

75

100

75

75

50

50

25

25

0

0

25

100

100

Asset-based

(%)

Public

transfers (%)

Family Transfers (%)

Thailand

Thai elderly rely on asset-based

reallocations and on familial transfers.

Page 28: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

Old-age Reallocation System, Selected Countries.

0

50

75

100

75

75

50

50

25

25

0

0

25

100

100

Asset-based

(%)

Public

transfers (%)

Family Transfers (%)

US Thailand

Costa Rica

Japan

Taiwan

Costa Rica and Japan rely

heavily on public

transfers; no familial

transfers.

Taiwan has a relatively balanced support system.

Page 29: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

Challenges and IssuesChallenges and Issues

► The methods for constructing detailed asset-based The methods for constructing detailed asset-based reallocations have not been adequately tested: reallocations have not been adequately tested: Public versus private asset-based reallocations.Public versus private asset-based reallocations. Capital- versus credit-based reallocations.Capital- versus credit-based reallocations.

► The methods for estimating bequests are The methods for estimating bequests are underdeveloped:underdeveloped: Estimates of the co-variance between mortality and wealth Estimates of the co-variance between mortality and wealth

are needed.are needed. Estimates should include bequests of public capital and debt. Estimates should include bequests of public capital and debt.

► How can our estimates of asset-based reallocations How can our estimates of asset-based reallocations

and bequests contribute to research on saving and bequests contribute to research on saving motives, e.g., lifecycle model, bequest motive, etc.? motives, e.g., lifecycle model, bequest motive, etc.?

Page 30: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

Figure 5a. Component of Age Reallocations Aggregate Values, Taiwan 1998

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Age

Reall

ocati

on

s (

$N

T B

illi

on

)

Bequest InterVivos Transfers Public Transfers Asset Reallocation

Total Inflows

Total Outflows

Source: Mason, Lee, Tung, Lai, and Miller forthcoming.

Active saving only by young adults.

Prime age adults are saving much less than their asset

income.

Page 31: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

Figure 6b. Components of Age Reallocations, Per Capita Values, US, 2000

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

Age

Re

allo

ca

tio

ns

($

US

T

ho

us

an

ds

) .

Bequests Inter Vivos Transfers Public Transfers Asset Reallocation

Total Inflows

Total Outflows

Source: Mason, Lee, Tung, Lai, and Miller forthcoming.

Saving < asset income at all

ages.

Asset income important; not

dis-saving.

Page 32: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

IV. BequestsIV. Bequests

► In the NTA system bequests refer to the transfer of In the NTA system bequests refer to the transfer of assets that arise as the older generation is assets that arise as the older generation is succeeded by the younger generation. In some succeeded by the younger generation. In some societies (the US?) this may coincide roughly with societies (the US?) this may coincide roughly with death, but even in the US assets may be death, but even in the US assets may be transferred in advance of death. transferred in advance of death.

► The legacy of current generations is not limited to The legacy of current generations is not limited to private wealth. In addition, we bequeath public private wealth. In addition, we bequeath public assets and public debt to future generations. assets and public debt to future generations.

► Estimating the amount of bequests bequeathed by Estimating the amount of bequests bequeathed by each age group and the age group to which the each age group and the age group to which the resources flow must rely on rough approximations resources flow must rely on rough approximations which can be refined over time. which can be refined over time.

Page 33: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

Public BequestsPublic Bequests

► Important issue: Who owns public assets Important issue: Who owns public assets and debt?and debt? Everyone?Everyone? Adults?Adults? Beneficiaries (students own schools)?Beneficiaries (students own schools)? Taxpayers? Taxpayers?

► Simplest approach with some intuitive Simplest approach with some intuitive appeal is to assume that taxpayers own appeal is to assume that taxpayers own public assets and debt (say in proportion to public assets and debt (say in proportion to the taxes they paid in the previous year). the taxes they paid in the previous year).

► Modeling public bequests is relatively easy. Modeling public bequests is relatively easy.

Page 34: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

Private BequestsPrivate Bequests

► Private assets are by assumption owned by the Private assets are by assumption owned by the household head. An issue of some importance is how household head. An issue of some importance is how the head is defined which varies from survey to the head is defined which varies from survey to survey. survey.

► Private bequests occur under the following Private bequests occur under the following conditions: conditions: the household head dies and transfers his resources to a the household head dies and transfers his resources to a

household headed by a person of a different age;household headed by a person of a different age; the household headship status is transferred from a person the household headship status is transferred from a person

in one age group to a person in another age group;in one age group to a person in another age group; two households with different aged heads merge. two households with different aged heads merge.

► As a practical matter measuring these events in the As a practical matter measuring these events in the aggregate will capture only the transmission of aggregate will capture only the transmission of assets across generations.assets across generations.

Page 35: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

Complexities of Modeling Private Complexities of Modeling Private BequestsBequests►Map from mortality of individuals to Map from mortality of individuals to

“mortality of heads” “mortality of heads” ►Estimate the covariance between Estimate the covariance between

survival and wealth. Given positive survival and wealth. Given positive covariance, bequests (measured in $) covariance, bequests (measured in $) occur at a later age than deaths.occur at a later age than deaths.

►Estimate the age of the recipients. Do Estimate the age of the recipients. Do older children receive a larger share of older children receive a larger share of bequests? bequests?

Page 36: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

V. Projecting or simulating NTAV. Projecting or simulating NTA

► Projecting flow accounts required forProjecting flow accounts required for calculation of transfer wealth,calculation of transfer wealth, construction of Generational Accounts,construction of Generational Accounts, policy analysis.policy analysis.

► MethodsMethods Analysis often depends on simple assumptions Analysis often depends on simple assumptions

about key economic variables. about key economic variables. ► US Social Security Administration.US Social Security Administration.► Generational Accounts.Generational Accounts.► Bommier, Lee, et al. calculations of NPV.Bommier, Lee, et al. calculations of NPV.► Mason estimates of 1Mason estimates of 1stst and 2 and 2ndnd dividend for UNPD. dividend for UNPD.

General Equilibrium modelsGeneral Equilibrium models

Page 37: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

General Equilibrium ModelGeneral Equilibrium Model

► Alternative models discussed by RonAlternative models discussed by Ron► Importance to projection of NT Flow AccountImportance to projection of NT Flow Account

Demography Demography capital capital labor income. labor income. Demography Demography consumption. consumption.

► Dividend period C may grow more rapidly than Yl.Dividend period C may grow more rapidly than Yl.► As support ratio declines, C will grow more slowly than Yl.As support ratio declines, C will grow more slowly than Yl.

Demography Demography interest rates. interest rates.

► Conclusion: Major elements of the NT Flow Conclusion: Major elements of the NT Flow Account must change as population age Account must change as population age structure changes. structure changes.

Page 38: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

Generic Demographic Transition Generic Demographic Transition over a 250-Year Period.over a 250-Year Period.

Annual rates of growth (%)

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250Source: Lee and Mason 2007 World Economic and Social Survey Background Paper.

Growth rate of income per

effective consumer.

Growth rate of consumption per

effective consumer.

Growth rate of economic

support ratio.

Page 39: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

Modeling Issues to ResolveModeling Issues to Resolve

►How do we model consumption How do we model consumption behavior?behavior?

►How do we model international capital How do we model international capital flows? flows?

►How do we model public policy? How do we model public policy? Familial policy?Familial policy?

►Other?Other?

Page 40: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

VI. Some Other Issues (from the VI. Some Other Issues (from the website)website)► The incidence of consumption taxes.The incidence of consumption taxes.► Remittance income and what population Remittance income and what population

counts should be used. counts should be used. ► Smoothing. Smoothing. ► Confidence intervals for our estimates.Confidence intervals for our estimates.► Definition of household heads. Definition of household heads. ► Defining savings as a residual category. Defining savings as a residual category. ► Impact of assigning benefits to specific Impact of assigning benefits to specific

individuals (children vs. parents)individuals (children vs. parents)

Page 41: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

VII. AccomplishmentsVII. Accomplishments

ASIAASIAChinaChina

IndiaIndia

IndonesiaIndonesia

JapanJapan

Korea, S.Korea, S.

PhilippinesPhilippines

TaiwanTaiwan

ThailandThailand

EUROPEEUROPEAustriaAustria

FranceFrance

SloveniaSlovenia

SwedenSweden

NORTH AMERICANORTH AMERICAUnited StatesUnited States

LATIN LATIN AMERICAAMERICABrazilBrazil

ChileChile

Costa RicaCosta Rica

MexicoMexico

UruguayUruguay

OCEANIAOCEANIAAustraliaAustralia

Participating CountriesParticipating Countries

Page 42: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

FundingFunding

National Institute on AgingNational Institute on Aging Core support to CEDA and EWCCore support to CEDA and EWC

United Nations Population United Nations Population FundFund

Asia regional project supported by Asia regional project supported by NUPRI; Uruguay NTA.NUPRI; Uruguay NTA.

Austria NTAAustria NTA

Swedish Research CouncilSwedish Research Council Sweden NTASweden NTA

NHMRC/ARC NHMRC/ARC Australia NTAAustralia NTA

Korea Development Korea Development InstituteInstitute

Korea NTAKorea NTA

IDRC (requested)IDRC (requested) Latin America regional project.Latin America regional project.

MacArthur FoundationMacArthur Foundation EWC Summer Seminars 2007 & EWC Summer Seminars 2007 & 2008.2008.

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National Transfer Accounts

Dissertation ResearchDissertation Research

►CompletedCompleted MalikiMaliki Nicole Mun-Sim LaiNicole Mun-Sim Lai Gim Eul-SikGim Eul-Sik

► In ProcessIn Process Chawla AmonthepChawla Amonthep Joze SambtJoze Sambt Others?Others?

Page 44: National Transfer Accounts:  Goals, Accomplishments, Challenges

National Transfer Accounts

DisseminationDissemination

► NTA and NBER working papers. A few NTA and NBER working papers. A few published papers.published papers.

► Papers in Arabic, English, French, Japanese, Papers in Arabic, English, French, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian, and Spanish.Korean, Portuguese, Russian, and Spanish.

► IMF Finance & Development article.IMF Finance & Development article.► Background papers for the UN General Background papers for the UN General

Assembly and the UN World Economic and Assembly and the UN World Economic and Social Survey.Social Survey.

► Numerous academic and policy seminars.Numerous academic and policy seminars.► Media coverage (Asahi Shimbum, Die Presse, Media coverage (Asahi Shimbum, Die Presse,

Sao Paulo).Sao Paulo).

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National Transfer Accounts

The National Transfer Accounts project is a collaborative effort of East-West Center, Honolulu

and Center for the Economics and

Demography of Aging, University of California - Berkeley

Lee, Ronald (ronlee), Co-DirectorMason, Andrew (amason), Co-Director Auerbach, Alan (auerbach) Miller, Tim (tmiller) Lee, Sang-Hyop (leesang) Donehower, Gretchen (gstockma) Ebenstein, Avi (ebenstei) Wongkaren, Turro (turro)

Takayesu, Ann (takayesa) Boe, Carl (cboe) Comelatto, Pablo (pabloc) Sumida, Comfort (comfort) Schiff, Eric (eric) Stojanovic, Diana (diana) Langer, Ellen (erlanger)Chawla, Amonthep (beet)Pajaron, Marjorie Cinco (pajaron)

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Taiwan Key Institution: The Institute of Economics,

Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan. Tung, An-Chi(actung), Country Leader

Lai, Mun Sim (Nicole)(munsim) Liu, Paul K.C.(kliu)

Andrew Mason Japan

Key Institutions: Nihon University Population Research Institute and the Statistics Bureau of Japan, Tokyo, Japan.

Ogawa, Naohiro(ogawa), Country LeaderMatsukura, Rikiya(matukura)

Fukui, Takehiro(jstat) Kondo, Makoto(kondo)

Akasaka, Katsuya(akasaka) Nemoto, Kazuro(nemoto) Makabe, Naomi(makabe)

Sato, Ryoko(rsato) Ogawa, Maki(mogawa) Murai, Minako(murai)

Obayashi, Senichi(obayashi) Suzuki, Kosuke(Suzuki)

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National Transfer Accounts

AustraliaKey Institution: Australia National University

Jeromey Temple, Country LeaderBrazil

Turra, Cassio(cturra), Country Leader Lanza Queiroz, Bernardo(lanza)

Renteria, Elisenda Perez(elisenda) Chile

Key Institution: United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Carribean, Santiago, Chile

Bravo, Jorge(jbravo2), Country LeaderChina

Key Institution: China Center for Economic Research, Beijing, China.

Ling, Li(Lingli), Country Leader Chen, Quilin(Chen)

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National Transfer Accounts

France Wolff, Francois-Charles(wolff), Country Leader

Bommier, Antoine(bommier) Thailand

Key Institution: Economics Department, Thammasat University. Phananiramai, Mathana(Mathana), Country Leader

Chawla, Amonthep (Beet)(amonthep) Inthornon, Suntichai(Suntichai)

India Key Institution: Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore

Narayana, M.R.(narayana), Country Leader Nanak Kakwani(kakwani) Ladusingh, L.(ladusingh)

MexicoKey Institution: Consejo Nacional de Población

Partida, Virgilio (virgilio), Country Leader Mejía-Guevara, Iván(ivan)

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National Transfer Accounts

Indonesia Key Institution: Lembaga Demografi, University of Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia.

Maliki(maliki), Country Leader Wiyono, Nur Hadi(nhwiyono)

Nazara, Suahasil(nazara) Chotib(chotib) Philippines

Key Institution: Philippine Institute for Development Studies. Racelis, Rachel H.(Rachel), Country Leader

Salas, John Michael Ian S.(Salas) Sweden

Key Institution: Institute for Future Studies, Stockholm, Sweden. Lindh, Thomas(lindh), Country Leader

Johansson, Mats(Mats) Forsell, Charlotte (charlotte)

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Uruguay Bucheli, Marisa(marisa), Country Leader

Furtado, Magdalena(furtado) South Korea

An, Chong-Bum (cban), Country LeaderChun, Young-Jun (yjchun) Lim, Byung-In (billforest) Kim, Cheol-Hee (Kimch)

Jeon, Seung-Hoon (jsh1105) Gim, Eul-Sik (kuspia)

Seok, Sang-Hun (good) Kim, Jae-Ho (ksud)

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National Transfer Accounts

Austria Key Institution: Vienna Institute of Demography

Fuernkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia (alexia), Country LeaderSambt, Joze(joze)

Costa Rica Key Institution: CCP, Universidad de Costa Rica

Rosero-Bixby, Luis(lrosero), Country Leader Slovenia

Sambt, Joze(joze), Country Leader

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National Transfer Accounts

United States Key Institution: Center for the Economics and Demography of Aging

Lee, Ronald(ronlee), Country LeaderMiller, Tim(tmiller)

Ebenstein, Avi(ebenstei) Boe, Carl(cboe)

Comelatto, Pablo(pabloc) Donehower, Gretchen(gstockma)

Schiff, Eric(eric) Langer, Ellen(erlanger)

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NNational ational TTransfer ransfer

AAccountsccounts

Support: Support:

National Institutes of HealthNational Institutes of Health

NIA, R01-AG025488NIA, R01-AG025488

NIA, R01-AG025247 NIA, R01-AG025247

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NNational ational TTransfer ransfer

AAccountsccounts

The EndThe End