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National Blend of Global Models
An Overview
Jeff WaldstreicherNOAA/NWS Eastern Region HQ
Bohemia, NY
15th Northeast Regional Operational WorkshopNovember 12-13, 2014 – Albany, NY
REASONING
FUNDING
Origins of the National Model Blend
2
Sandy Supplemental JPSS Gap Mitigation: projects that make better use of existing model data
Local / Regional Model Blend Initiatives
WRN Roadmap NAPA Report
Early Roots in Regional Blends
• Improvements in verification and consistency scores for the NWS National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)
• Operational Efficiencies
BUT…• Sustainability of the regional solution?• Consistency between regional approaches and
national centers?• Model data dissemination limitations?
Early Roots in Regional Blends
Need a national system: – Harness full capabilities of NWP systems and national
computing power– Full suite of ensembles– Employ state of the art statistical post processing
techniques• Downscaling• Bias Correction
– Enable enhanced consistency within NWS forecast information
National Blend of Models
National Model Blender Project
5
Develop a set of next-generation foundational
gridded guidance products for NDFD weather
elements based on NWS and non-NWS model
information.GFS
GFS ENSEMBLES
ECWMFCMC
CMC ENSEMBLES
ECWMF E
NSEMBLES
FNMOC
NDFD
National Model Blender Project Objective
Improve quality and consistency of the NWS National Digital Forecast Database
Improve operational efficiency
6
Current NWS Forecaster
6-8 hrs. of manual grid manipulation
Leverage skill of guidance to assist with freeing up time to focus on DSS and hazardous weather operations
7
NDFD ElementsNDFD Elements No. of Grids Projections 12-hour Probability of Precipitation (PoP12) 13-15 Every 12 hours, out to 168 hoursApparent Temperature 33-41 Every 3 hours out to 72 hours;
every 6 hours out to 168 hoursDew Point 33-41 Every 3 hours out to 72 hours;
every 6 hours out to 168 hoursHazards 59-82 Every hour, out to 72 hours;
every 6 hours out to 120 hoursMaximum Temperature 7-8 Every 24 hours, out to 168 hoursMinimum Temperature 6-7 Every 24 hours, out to 168 hoursQuantitative Precipitation Amount 9-13 Every 6 hours out to 72 hoursRelative Humidity 33-41 Every 3 hours out to 72 hours;
every 6 hours out to 168 hours
Significant Wave Height 17-21 Every 6 hours out to 120 hoursSky Cover 33-41 Every 3 hours out to 72 hours;
every 6 hours out to 168 hoursSnow Amount 5-9 Every 6 hours out to 48 hoursTemperature 33-41 Every 3 hours out to 72 hours;
every 6 hours out to 168 hoursWeather 33-41 Every 3 hours out to 72 hours;
every 6 hours out to 168 hoursWind Direction 33-41 Every 3 hours out to 72 hours;
every 6 hours out to 168 hoursWind Gust 17-25 Every 3 hours out to 72 hoursWind Speed 33-41 Every 3 hours out to 72 hours;
every 6 hours out to 168 hours
The National Blend Project
8
GFS
NAEFSECWMF
CMC
ECW
MF
ENSE
MBL
ES
Create a NWS methodology for a national blend (“best”) product, beginning with the Day 3 - 8 time frame (Phase I)
Extensible to a full set of NWS deterministic and probabilistic products covering days 1-10 (Phase II).
National Blend Project – Phase I
9
•Max/Min Temperature•3-hr Temp and Dewpoint•Wind speed and direction•Sky Cover•PoP•Precipitation Type•QPF
Gridded Guidance Products:
Focus on Days 3- 8, so initial development efforts are concentrated on global deterministic and ensemble systems
National Blend Project – Phase II
Additional Elements:•Snowfall Amount•Wind Gusts•Predominant Weather•Others as needed**Derive where it makes sense to ensure consistency, efficiency: i.e. Relative Humidity, Apparent Temperature
Expansion to Days 1-10•Non-global NWP systems (e.g., NAM, SREF)
Development of a suite of probabilistic guidance 10
11
The National Blend Plan
WPC
WeatherForecastOffices
The National Blend will be distributed twice daily.
WPC will provide oversight of the National Blend for Days 3-8 to maintain meteorological and spatial consistency.
WFO’s will receive both objective and WPC (edited) grids.
8 Sub-Projects Funded from Sandy Supplemental ~$2.2 million
• Lead efforts of post-processing team, contribute GEFS Reforecast data sets, contribute to PoP/QPF development and new blending approaches, participate in evaluation (Hamill; OAR/ESRL/PSD)
• Advanced MOS statistical post-processing techniques for calibration of NDFD variables and blending of model output (Gilbert; OST/MDL)
• Expand NAEFS post-processing (Zhu; NCEP/EMC)
12
Sub-Projects Funded from Sandy Supplemental ~$2.2 million
• Accelerate URMA/RTMA improvements for use as “Analysis of Record” in model blender (DiMego/Pondeca; NCEP/EMC)
• Perform grid-to-grid and grid-to-point verifications (Ruth; OST/MDL)
• Data management and visualization tools to improve collaboration (Gilbert; OST/MDL)
• Transition NCEP’s WPC blending and ensemble visualization capability to AWIPS II for the NCEP Perspective (Mainelli; NCEP/NCO)
• Training (Mostek/Bua; COMET)
13
14
Consistency - NWS Standard TerrainDifferent terrain used in downscaling systems
(AWIPS D2D display, GFE, RTMA) GFE - RTMA Terrain
All shaded areas represent differences greater than 100m
Example: Gridded MOS 2-m T @ 12 hours, diff > 10oF
15
Consistency - NWS Standard Terrain
• Development groups, including those responsible for post-processing and those responsible for the analysis will downscale to the same terrain in use by the WFOs in GFE.
Develop methodology with schedule to merge local edits into a national terrain file
Develop procedures to create a gridded land/water mask for MDL and EMC downscaling applications consistent with the AWIPS terrain file and marine polygons
Scheduled for AWIPS 14.4.1, baselined by June 2015Remaining Question: How do local terrain edits get back
to a national file?
Plenary Group (Regions, NWSEO, NCEP, OST, OCWWS,
SPPO, OAR)
Project Manager
Kathy Gilbert
Project Advisor
Steve Lord
Project Management
Analysis and Verification
(Ruth)
Dissemination(Settelmaier and Gilbert
Post Processing
(Hamill)
Testing and Training
(Novak and Craven)
Working level Teams
Outreach(Sieveking and
Gagan)
Multi-Panel Graphical Interface created by MDL:
17
National Blend – Analysis & Verification
http://www.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/~blend/blender.prototype.php
• Initial evaluations of individual components of the blend• Prototype National Blend grids• Provide feedback to RTMA developers• Provide feedback to Blend developers• Show verification of experimental blends
Coming Soon:• Ability to overlay surface observations • Grid-based and point-based verification statistics for
prototype blends
RTMA/URMA Evaluation
Blend Evaluation
National Blend Project - Evaluation
20
• Internal Evaluation through Summer 2015 (Testing and Evaluation Team)
• Formal Evaluation Sept 2015 – Mar 2016• Analysis of Accuracy, Consistency, and
Workload (focused on NDFD, WPC, and National Blend)
WFO input will be key component of evaluation.
National Blend Project - Training
21
• Overview of the National Blend• Components of the National Blend• Statistical Techniques & Procedures• National Blend Verification• National Blend Reliability• WPC Procedures
Questions?
…or time for some liquid blends…