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FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS ONLY Please read the important information at the back of this material
January 2018
Jon Bell / Paul Flood
PRE00311
NEWTON MULTI-ASSET INCOME FUND
1
Investment process Newton Multi-Asset Income Fund
Income focused – flexibility is key
LEARNING POINTS CHALLENGES FACING CLIENTS REQUIRING INCOME Market characteristics that have reduced traditional sources of yield
WHY A SUSTAINABLE INCOME IS IMPORTANT High yield can often imply high-risk
USE OF ALTERNATIVES AS A SOURCE OF INCOME Areas of opportunity that offer sustainable income and low sensitivity to the economic cycle
Fundamental, active & flexible
RISK APPETITE
Core (attractive risk/return attributes)
Safe havens (protective qualities)
Opportunities (higher growth profile)
Example assets
2
Newton’s investment philosophy
We believe in …
Our primary objective is delivering results for our clients Note: 1 Environmental, Social and Governance.
Global thematic investing since 1978
Constructing investment portfolios incorporating our highest conviction
ideas
CONVICTION
Conducting rigorous fundamental analysis
incorporating ESG1 considerations
ANALYSIS
Using themes to understand the forces driving global change
THEMES
Thinking globally, evaluating each idea in a
global context
GLOBAL
3 “You have to make the rules, not follow them” – Sir Isaac Newton
Income diversification has moved on
60% UK Equities
40% UK
Government Bonds
Infrastructure
UK Equities
Overseas Equities
UK Government
Bonds
Overseas Government
Bonds Corporate Bonds
EMD
Alternatives
REITs
TRADITIONAL DISTRIBUTION FUND
NEWTON MULTI-ASSET INCOME FUND
4 Need to think differently, invest differently
Financial repression…
$8.8trn of global fixed income with negative yields
44.3%
37.9% 35.8%
32.5% 31.2%
29.8% 27.8% 27.0%
23.4%
Japan Germany Finland Ireland Austria Denmark France Nth'lands Belgium
QUARTERLY UPDATE –
MASTER PACK (NICK)
Bond ownership by central banks
$2.47 trn $338 bn
$3.92 trn $2.37 trn
All figures in USD Source: Bank of England, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 31 July 2017 Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Fixed Income Markets Index and Bloomberg, 30 June 2017.
5
229.2 221.6
183.3 160.7 158.0
122.1 124.3
80.3 61.6
50.5 40.8 32.4 22.2 32.3 19.5 18.3 15.3 15.6 15.3
11.3 4.4
-28.6
Inflation missing in action?
Total return performance in local currency since January 2009
Wide dispersion between real ‘economy’ & financial asset price inflation Source: Bloomberg, June 2017.
Or hiding in plain sight?
FINANCIAL ASSET PRICES REAL ECONOMY PRICES
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0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Oct-07 Jun-09 Feb-11 Oct-12 Jun-14 Feb-16 Oct-17
BoA ML European Currency High Yield Constrained Index BoA ML US High Yield Index
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Oct-07 Jun-09 Feb-11 Oct-12 Jun-14 Feb-16 Oct-17
BoA ML Euro Corporates Index BoA ML US Corporate Index
For illustrative purposes only. Source: Bloomberg, 31 October 2017.
Yield to worst at all time lows
HY yielding 2.7% for most levered part of corporates market
Opportunity cost of cash is at all time lows
Policy impacting corporate bond markets
2.4%
0.6%
7
Inflation around the world…
US CPI
No protection against the ravages of inflation For illustrative purposes only. Source: Bloomberg, 4 January 2017.
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
Mar-11 May-12 Jun-13 Jul-14 Sep-15 Oct-16 Nov-17
US CPI UK CPI German CPI
Bond 10 year yield
US Treasury 2.5%
UK Gilt 1.2%
German Bund 0.4%
8
85
90
95
100
105
110
Nov-10 Jan-12 Mar-13 Apr-14 Jun-15 Jul-16 Sep-17
Small Business Optimism Index
Source: Bloomberg, 30 September 2017.
Small business optimism
Nominal wage growth of US individuals
Dislocation between economy and markets?
US consumer business sentiment strong
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Nov-10 Jan-12 Mar-13 Apr-14 Jun-15 Jul-16 Sep-17
Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker
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-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Cycle-adjusted P/E multiple, x
What you pay influences future returns
Observations over 100 years S&P valuation level (cycle-adjusted) vs. 10-year average annual returns
Potential return for taking risk is low Source: Prof Robert Shiller, Yale University, http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/ie_data.xls, Newton, 30 September 2017. Chart depicts 100 years of monthly data points.
Aggregate valuations stretched
Sept 2017 31x
. Financial and economic risks are high
. Probability of sharp drawdowns is elevated
Valuation increases
10
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Sweden US UK Japan Euro Area China 6 Economy Aggregate
Central bank liquidity has been the key support for financial markets
Central Bank Net Asset Purchases1
Liquidity to be withdrawn Note: 1 (3MMA, $Bn), 2009-2019F Source: Bloomberg, Newton, September 2017.
An attempt to reduce the size of central bank balance sheets
COMMODITY BUST 1.0
EUROZONE DEBT
CRISIS
EM & COMMODITY
BUST
FORECASTS
???
Today
Negative areas are Decarate series and on secondary
axis.
Shaded areas are on a Decarate chart behind.
11
Alternatives demonstrate strong thematic attributes
Diversifying portfolio income, returns and risk
Stable and growing income
RENEWABLES AVIATION PROPERTY INFRASTRUCTURE
12
The securities mentioned are only for illustrating the investment process of Newton Investment Management. These opinions should not be construed as investment or any other advice and are subject to change. This slide is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to invest. P/E = Price/Earnings. For illustrative purposes only. Source: Newton, May 2017. Focused on the best risk/return opportunities
Stock selection… bringing the process to life Greencoat UK Wind
Beneficiary of attractive secular trends
Strong position in growing renewables market
Strong management team with proven track record
Dual income
Electricity exported to grid
ROCS (Renewable Obligation Certificate)
FUNDAMENTALS VALUATION
6% dividend yield (1.8x covered) Retail Price Index (RPI or inflation) –
linked growth Internal Rate of Return (IRR) 7–9%
13
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Jul-07 Mar-09 Nov-10 Jul-12 Feb-14 Oct-15 Jun-17
Newton Multi-Asset Diversified Return Fund - Infrastructure holdings FTSE 100 FTSE UK Gilts Over 10yrs
Considering risk and return at the portfolio level – duration risk
Infrastructure performance over 10 years
For illustrative purposes only. Source: Newton, 31 July 2017.
Infrastructure 10 year correlation
With FTSE UK Gilts Over 10yrs 0.11
With FTSE 100 0.41
14
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Feb-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17
Newton Multi-Asset Diversified Return Fund - Renewables holdings FTSE 100 FTSE UK Gilts Over 10yrs
Considering risk and return at the portfolio level – duration risk
Renewables performance since 28 February 2013
For illustrative purposes only. Source: Newton, 31 July 2017.
Renewables correlation
With FTSE UK Gilts Over 10yrs -0.07
With FTSE 100 0.24
15
Semiconductors
1 Source: Gartner September 2017 2 Source: Cisco global Cloud Index White paper 2016. 3 Source: Intel Data is the New Oil 8 July 2017. Source (images): Shutterstock, 2017.
Driving Innovation Globally
Semiconductors
~$400 billion1 market and expanding
70 GB/day3 Smart car
Artificial Intelligence
50 PB/day2 Public Safety
1 PB/day2 Smart
Factory
Big Data / Cloud
Offshore Wind Farm
40 TB/day2 Connected
Plane
More and more things…
Generating Data
Processing Data
Storing Data
16
Investment process Newton Multi-Asset Income Fund
Income focused – flexibility is key
LEARNING POINTS CHALLENGES FACING CLIENTS REQUIRING INCOME Market characteristics that have reduced traditional sources of yield
WHY A SUSTAINABLE INCOME IS IMPORTANT High yield can often imply high-risk
USE OF ALTERNATIVES AS A SOURCE OF INCOME Areas of opportunity that offer sustainable income and low sensitivity to the economic cycle
Fundamental, active & flexible
RISK APPETITE
Core (attractive risk/return attributes)
Safe havens (protective qualities)
Opportunities (higher growth profile)
Example assets
17
Seeking to deliver attractive income and total returns through:
. Strong heritage of managing multi-asset portfolios
. A long-term focused process
. An experienced team committed to a rewarding relationship
Note: 1 Based on performance from inception to 30 September 2017. Sustainable income and attractive total returns1
Newton Multi-Asset Income Fund Aiming to deliver sustainable and growing income
Fundamental, active & flexible
Stable and growing income
Harnessing the power of compounding
The 60% MSCI AC World, 40% hedged BoAML Global Broad Market index is used as an income reference for this fund. The fund does not aim to replicate either the composition or the performance of the index.
Newton Multi-Asset
Income Fund
Aiming to deliver
sustainable and growing income
Income 130% of 60%
equities / 40% bonds reference
18
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Income received¹ Total return² 1 Source: Newton, GBP Inc share class, 31 December 2017. Total income received from holdings smoothed daily for illustrative purposes. 2 Source: Lipper, midday prices, total return, income reinvested, net of 0.63% annual management charge, Inst W Acc share class, in GBP, 31 December 2017. Aiming to deliver robust and stable returns
Performance since inception to 31 December 2017 Newton Multi-Asset Income Fund
From workbook “Total Return &
Income Received Graph.xlsx”.
Provided by Colin Rutter
Current annual yield
Newton Multi-Asset Income Fund 4.0%
Reference yield target 2.7%
Stable and growing income
19
Current positioning by industry, as at 31 December 2017 Newton Multi-Asset Income Fund
Source: Newton, 31 December 2017. Active, flexible and directly invested
From workbook “[mmm-yy]
Weighting.xlsx”. Tab “Slide updates”
Row 3-29 Column P-R
Provided by Colin Rutter
MONTHLY UPDATE –
MASTER PACK (NICK)
Fundamental, active & flexible
Oil & Gas 1.9%
Basic Materials 0.0%
Industrials 7.2%
Consumer Goods 9.2%
Health Care 2.6%
Consumer Services 9.4%
Telecommunication 2.9%
Utilities 0.6%
Financials 7.5%
Banks 5.0%
Technology 6.4% Index Linked 0.2%
Convertible Bonds 2.0%
Corporate Bonds 2.5%
Government Bonds 3.0%
Sub Investment Grade Bonds 5.4%
Emerging Market Bonds 2.6%
Renewables 11.5%
Infrastructure 6.5%
Property 6.8%
CLO Equity 1.9% Direct Lending 1.7%
Derivatives 0.0% Cash 3.1%
Currency hedging 0.2%
Weight; 52.7%
Weight; 15.6%
Weight; 28.4%
Weight; 3.3%
Yield; 3.1%
Yield; 5.0%
Yield; 5.5%
20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Newton Multi-Asset Income Fund IA Mixed Investment 20%-60% Shares IA Mixed Investment 40%-85% Shares IA Flexible Investment Note: 1 Inception date: 5 February 2015. Source: Lipper, midday prices, total return, income reinvested, net of 0.63% annual management charge, Inst W Acc share class, in GBP, 31 December 2017. Strong relative performance
Total return performance since launch1 vs sector peers Newton Multi-Asset Income Fund
Fundamental, active & flexible
21
12 month returns
Dec-16 to Dec-17
%
Dec-15 to Dec-16
%
Dec-14 to Dec-15
%
Dec-13 to Dec-14
%
Dec-12 to Dec-13
%
Fund 12.96 18.64 N/A N/A N/A
Index N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
. There is no guarantee that the Fund will achieve its objective.
. This Fund invests in international markets which means it is exposed to changes in currency rates which could affect the value of the Fund.
. The Fund will use derivatives to generate returns as well as to reduce costs and/or the overall risk of the Fund. Using derivatives can involve a higher level of risk. A small movement in the price of an underlying investment may result in a disproportionately large movement in the price of the derivative investment.
. Investments in bonds are affected by interest rates and inflation trends which may affect the value of the Fund.
. The Fund holds bonds with a low credit rating that have a greater risk of default. These investments may affect the value of the Fund.
. The Fund may invest in emerging markets. These markets have additional risks due to less developed market practices.
. The Fund may invest in investments that are not traded regularly and are therefore subject to greater fluctuations in price.
. The Fund may invest in small companies which may be riskier and less liquid (i.e. harder to sell) than large companies. This means that their share prices may have greater fluctuations.
. The Fund takes its charges from the capital of the Fund. Investors should be aware that there is potential for capital erosion if insufficient capital growth is achieved by the Fund to cover the charges. Capital erosion may have the effect of reducing the level of income generated.
. The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation or one of its affiliates (‘BNYM’) has invested in the Fund. As a result of restrictions under the ‘Volcker Rule’, which has been adopted by US Regulators, BNYM must reduce its shareholding percentage so that it constitutes less than 15% of the Fund within, generally, three years of the Fund's establishment (which starts when the Fund's manager begins making investments for the Fund). Risks may include: BNYM may initially own a proportionately larger percentage of the Fund, and any mandatory reductions may increase Fund portfolio turnover rates, resulting in increased costs, expenses and taxes. Details of BNYM's investment in the Fund are available upon request.
. A complete description of risk factors is set out in the Prospectus in the section entitled ‘Risk Factors’.
Investment performance Key investment risks
Source: Newton, close of business prices, total return, income reinvested, gross of fees, in GBP, 31 December 2017. Key investment risks
Key risks Newton Multi-Asset Income Fund
Calendar year returns
YTD 2017 %
2016 %
2015 %
2014 %
2013 %
Fund 12.96 18.64 N/A N/A N/A
Index N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Your capital may be at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the original amount invested. You should read the Prospectus and the Key Investor Information Document (KIID) for each fund in which you want to invest. The Prospectus and KIID can be found at www.bnymellonim.com. Tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each client and may be subject to change in the future. Newton is not a tax expert and independent tax and/or legal advice should be sought.
Performance is stated gross of management fees. The impact of management fees can be material. A fee schedule providing further detail is available on request.
22
Important information For professional investors only
This is a financial promotion. Issued in the UK by Newton Investment Management Limited. Portfolio holdings are subject to change at any time without notice and should not be construed as investment recommendations. Any reference to a specific security, country or sector should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell this security, country or sector. Where an index is used as a comparative index, this strategy does not aim to replicate either the composition or the performance of the comparative index. Where the portfolio has exposure to hedge funds, gold, private equity and property via publicly quoted transferable securities, there are additional risks associated with these sectors. The portfolio may hold derivatives. An investment in derivatives may be volatile, but the volatility of the strategy is not expected to be any greater than that of the underlying stock and fixed income markets. Where the fund is invested in sub-investment grade bonds, which typically have a low credit rating and carry a high degree of default risk, please be aware that this may affect the capital value of your investment. The value of overseas securities will be influenced by fluctuations in exchange rates. A concentrated portfolio does not have the diversity of investment that is generally expected. This means that each stock within the portfolio may have a more significant effect on its performance. Assets under management include assets managed by Newton Investment Management Ltd and Newton Investment Management (North America) Limited. In addition, AUM for Newton may include assets managed by Newton’s officers as employees of The Bank of New York Mellon and assets of
wrap fee account(s) for which Newton Investment Management (North America) Limited provides sub-advisory services to the primary manager of the wrap program. Newton Investment Management (North America) Limited and Newton Investment Management Limited are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK, and Newton Investment Management (North America) Limited is registered as an investment adviser with the SEC. The enclosed material is confidential and may not be reproduced or redistributed without the prior written consent of Newton Investment Management Limited. Nothing herein constitutes an offer to sell, or solicitation of an offer to purchase, any securities. ‘Newton’ refers to the following group of affiliated companies: Newton Investment Management Limited, Newton Investment Management (North America) Limited and Newton Investment Management (North America) LLC. NIMNA LLC personnel are supervised persons of NIMNA Ltd and NIMNA LLC does not provide investment advice, all of which is conducted by NIMNA Ltd. Except for Newton Investment Management (North America) LLC and Newton Investment Management (North America) Limited, none of the other Newton companies offer services in the US. The opinions expressed in this document are those of Newton and should not be construed as investment advice. Newton claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®). To receive a list of composite descriptions of Newton and/or a compliant presentation, contact the RFP Team at [email protected] or write to Newton Investment Management Limited, BNY Mellon Centre, 160 Queen Victoria Street, London EC4V 4LA, Tel: 020 7163 9000.
Registered office: as above. Both firms are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, are members of the IA and are Bank of New York Mellon CompaniesSM
NIM ONLY
Newton Investment Management Limited BNY Mellon Centre 160 Queen Victoria Street London EC4V 4LA Tel: 020 7163 9000 Registered in England No. 01371973 www.newtonim.com
BNY Mellon Fund Managers Limited BNY Mellon Centre 160 Queen Victoria Street London EC4V 4LA Tel: 020 7163 9000 Registered in England No. 01998251
FINANCIAL PROMOTIO
NS