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FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS ONLY Please read the important information at the back of this material January 2018 Jon Bell / Paul Flood PRE00311 NEWTON MULTI-ASSET INCOME FUND

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Page 1: MULTI-ASSET NEWTON INCOME FUND - StoneShotstoneshot.com/e/JIF/27536/presentations/JIF2018-BNY... · 2018-01-08 · 25.0 30.0 Oct-07 Jun-09 Feb-11 Oct-12 Jun-14 Feb-16 Oct-17 BoA ML

FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS ONLY Please read the important information at the back of this material

January 2018

Jon Bell / Paul Flood

PRE00311

NEWTON MULTI-ASSET INCOME FUND

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1

Investment process Newton Multi-Asset Income Fund

Income focused – flexibility is key

LEARNING POINTS CHALLENGES FACING CLIENTS REQUIRING INCOME Market characteristics that have reduced traditional sources of yield

WHY A SUSTAINABLE INCOME IS IMPORTANT High yield can often imply high-risk

USE OF ALTERNATIVES AS A SOURCE OF INCOME Areas of opportunity that offer sustainable income and low sensitivity to the economic cycle

Fundamental, active & flexible

RISK APPETITE

Core (attractive risk/return attributes)

Safe havens (protective qualities)

Opportunities (higher growth profile)

Example assets

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Newton’s investment philosophy

We believe in …

Our primary objective is delivering results for our clients Note: 1 Environmental, Social and Governance.

Global thematic investing since 1978

Constructing investment portfolios incorporating our highest conviction

ideas

CONVICTION

Conducting rigorous fundamental analysis

incorporating ESG1 considerations

ANALYSIS

Using themes to understand the forces driving global change

THEMES

Thinking globally, evaluating each idea in a

global context

GLOBAL

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3 “You have to make the rules, not follow them” – Sir Isaac Newton

Income diversification has moved on

60% UK Equities

40% UK

Government Bonds

Infrastructure

UK Equities

Overseas Equities

UK Government

Bonds

Overseas Government

Bonds Corporate Bonds

EMD

Alternatives

REITs

TRADITIONAL DISTRIBUTION FUND

NEWTON MULTI-ASSET INCOME FUND

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4 Need to think differently, invest differently

Financial repression…

$8.8trn of global fixed income with negative yields

44.3%

37.9% 35.8%

32.5% 31.2%

29.8% 27.8% 27.0%

23.4%

Japan Germany Finland Ireland Austria Denmark France Nth'lands Belgium

QUARTERLY UPDATE –

MASTER PACK (NICK)

Bond ownership by central banks

$2.47 trn $338 bn

$3.92 trn $2.37 trn

All figures in USD Source: Bank of England, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 31 July 2017 Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Fixed Income Markets Index and Bloomberg, 30 June 2017.

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229.2 221.6

183.3 160.7 158.0

122.1 124.3

80.3 61.6

50.5 40.8 32.4 22.2 32.3 19.5 18.3 15.3 15.6 15.3

11.3 4.4

-28.6

Inflation missing in action?

Total return performance in local currency since January 2009

Wide dispersion between real ‘economy’ & financial asset price inflation Source: Bloomberg, June 2017.

Or hiding in plain sight?

FINANCIAL ASSET PRICES REAL ECONOMY PRICES

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0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

Oct-07 Jun-09 Feb-11 Oct-12 Jun-14 Feb-16 Oct-17

BoA ML European Currency High Yield Constrained Index BoA ML US High Yield Index

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Oct-07 Jun-09 Feb-11 Oct-12 Jun-14 Feb-16 Oct-17

BoA ML Euro Corporates Index BoA ML US Corporate Index

For illustrative purposes only. Source: Bloomberg, 31 October 2017.

Yield to worst at all time lows

HY yielding 2.7% for most levered part of corporates market

Opportunity cost of cash is at all time lows

Policy impacting corporate bond markets

2.4%

0.6%

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Inflation around the world…

US CPI

No protection against the ravages of inflation For illustrative purposes only. Source: Bloomberg, 4 January 2017.

-0.5

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

Mar-11 May-12 Jun-13 Jul-14 Sep-15 Oct-16 Nov-17

US CPI UK CPI German CPI

Bond 10 year yield

US Treasury 2.5%

UK Gilt 1.2%

German Bund 0.4%

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85

90

95

100

105

110

Nov-10 Jan-12 Mar-13 Apr-14 Jun-15 Jul-16 Sep-17

Small Business Optimism Index

Source: Bloomberg, 30 September 2017.

Small business optimism

Nominal wage growth of US individuals

Dislocation between economy and markets?

US consumer business sentiment strong

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Nov-10 Jan-12 Mar-13 Apr-14 Jun-15 Jul-16 Sep-17

Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker

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-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Cycle-adjusted P/E multiple, x

What you pay influences future returns

Observations over 100 years S&P valuation level (cycle-adjusted) vs. 10-year average annual returns

Potential return for taking risk is low Source: Prof Robert Shiller, Yale University, http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/ie_data.xls, Newton, 30 September 2017. Chart depicts 100 years of monthly data points.

Aggregate valuations stretched

Sept 2017 31x

. Financial and economic risks are high

. Probability of sharp drawdowns is elevated

Valuation increases

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-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Sweden US UK Japan Euro Area China 6 Economy Aggregate

Central bank liquidity has been the key support for financial markets

Central Bank Net Asset Purchases1

Liquidity to be withdrawn Note: 1 (3MMA, $Bn), 2009-2019F Source: Bloomberg, Newton, September 2017.

An attempt to reduce the size of central bank balance sheets

COMMODITY BUST 1.0

EUROZONE DEBT

CRISIS

EM & COMMODITY

BUST

FORECASTS

???

Today

Negative areas are Decarate series and on secondary

axis.

Shaded areas are on a Decarate chart behind.

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Alternatives demonstrate strong thematic attributes

Diversifying portfolio income, returns and risk

Stable and growing income

RENEWABLES AVIATION PROPERTY INFRASTRUCTURE

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The securities mentioned are only for illustrating the investment process of Newton Investment Management. These opinions should not be construed as investment or any other advice and are subject to change. This slide is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to invest. P/E = Price/Earnings. For illustrative purposes only. Source: Newton, May 2017. Focused on the best risk/return opportunities

Stock selection… bringing the process to life Greencoat UK Wind

Beneficiary of attractive secular trends

Strong position in growing renewables market

Strong management team with proven track record

Dual income

Electricity exported to grid

ROCS (Renewable Obligation Certificate)

FUNDAMENTALS VALUATION

6% dividend yield (1.8x covered) Retail Price Index (RPI or inflation) –

linked growth Internal Rate of Return (IRR) 7–9%

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-50

0

50

100

150

200

Jul-07 Mar-09 Nov-10 Jul-12 Feb-14 Oct-15 Jun-17

Newton Multi-Asset Diversified Return Fund - Infrastructure holdings FTSE 100 FTSE UK Gilts Over 10yrs

Considering risk and return at the portfolio level – duration risk

Infrastructure performance over 10 years

For illustrative purposes only. Source: Newton, 31 July 2017.

Infrastructure 10 year correlation

With FTSE UK Gilts Over 10yrs 0.11

With FTSE 100 0.41

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-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Feb-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17

Newton Multi-Asset Diversified Return Fund - Renewables holdings FTSE 100 FTSE UK Gilts Over 10yrs

Considering risk and return at the portfolio level – duration risk

Renewables performance since 28 February 2013

For illustrative purposes only. Source: Newton, 31 July 2017.

Renewables correlation

With FTSE UK Gilts Over 10yrs -0.07

With FTSE 100 0.24

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Semiconductors

1 Source: Gartner September 2017 2 Source: Cisco global Cloud Index White paper 2016. 3 Source: Intel Data is the New Oil 8 July 2017. Source (images): Shutterstock, 2017.

Driving Innovation Globally

Semiconductors

~$400 billion1 market and expanding

70 GB/day3 Smart car

Artificial Intelligence

50 PB/day2 Public Safety

1 PB/day2 Smart

Factory

Big Data / Cloud

Offshore Wind Farm

40 TB/day2 Connected

Plane

More and more things…

Generating Data

Processing Data

Storing Data

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Investment process Newton Multi-Asset Income Fund

Income focused – flexibility is key

LEARNING POINTS CHALLENGES FACING CLIENTS REQUIRING INCOME Market characteristics that have reduced traditional sources of yield

WHY A SUSTAINABLE INCOME IS IMPORTANT High yield can often imply high-risk

USE OF ALTERNATIVES AS A SOURCE OF INCOME Areas of opportunity that offer sustainable income and low sensitivity to the economic cycle

Fundamental, active & flexible

RISK APPETITE

Core (attractive risk/return attributes)

Safe havens (protective qualities)

Opportunities (higher growth profile)

Example assets

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Seeking to deliver attractive income and total returns through:

. Strong heritage of managing multi-asset portfolios

. A long-term focused process

. An experienced team committed to a rewarding relationship

Note: 1 Based on performance from inception to 30 September 2017. Sustainable income and attractive total returns1

Newton Multi-Asset Income Fund Aiming to deliver sustainable and growing income

Fundamental, active & flexible

Stable and growing income

Harnessing the power of compounding

The 60% MSCI AC World, 40% hedged BoAML Global Broad Market index is used as an income reference for this fund. The fund does not aim to replicate either the composition or the performance of the index.

Newton Multi-Asset

Income Fund

Aiming to deliver

sustainable and growing income

Income 130% of 60%

equities / 40% bonds reference

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-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Income received¹ Total return² 1 Source: Newton, GBP Inc share class, 31 December 2017. Total income received from holdings smoothed daily for illustrative purposes. 2 Source: Lipper, midday prices, total return, income reinvested, net of 0.63% annual management charge, Inst W Acc share class, in GBP, 31 December 2017. Aiming to deliver robust and stable returns

Performance since inception to 31 December 2017 Newton Multi-Asset Income Fund

From workbook “Total Return &

Income Received Graph.xlsx”.

Provided by Colin Rutter

Current annual yield

Newton Multi-Asset Income Fund 4.0%

Reference yield target 2.7%

Stable and growing income

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Current positioning by industry, as at 31 December 2017 Newton Multi-Asset Income Fund

Source: Newton, 31 December 2017. Active, flexible and directly invested

From workbook “[mmm-yy]

Weighting.xlsx”. Tab “Slide updates”

Row 3-29 Column P-R

Provided by Colin Rutter

MONTHLY UPDATE –

MASTER PACK (NICK)

Fundamental, active & flexible

Oil & Gas 1.9%

Basic Materials 0.0%

Industrials 7.2%

Consumer Goods 9.2%

Health Care 2.6%

Consumer Services 9.4%

Telecommunication 2.9%

Utilities 0.6%

Financials 7.5%

Banks 5.0%

Technology 6.4% Index Linked 0.2%

Convertible Bonds 2.0%

Corporate Bonds 2.5%

Government Bonds 3.0%

Sub Investment Grade Bonds 5.4%

Emerging Market Bonds 2.6%

Renewables 11.5%

Infrastructure 6.5%

Property 6.8%

CLO Equity 1.9% Direct Lending 1.7%

Derivatives 0.0% Cash 3.1%

Currency hedging 0.2%

Weight; 52.7%

Weight; 15.6%

Weight; 28.4%

Weight; 3.3%

Yield; 3.1%

Yield; 5.0%

Yield; 5.5%

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-15

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5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Newton Multi-Asset Income Fund IA Mixed Investment 20%-60% Shares IA Mixed Investment 40%-85% Shares IA Flexible Investment Note: 1 Inception date: 5 February 2015. Source: Lipper, midday prices, total return, income reinvested, net of 0.63% annual management charge, Inst W Acc share class, in GBP, 31 December 2017. Strong relative performance

Total return performance since launch1 vs sector peers Newton Multi-Asset Income Fund

Fundamental, active & flexible

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12 month returns

Dec-16 to Dec-17

%

Dec-15 to Dec-16

%

Dec-14 to Dec-15

%

Dec-13 to Dec-14

%

Dec-12 to Dec-13

%

Fund 12.96 18.64 N/A N/A N/A

Index N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

. There is no guarantee that the Fund will achieve its objective.

. This Fund invests in international markets which means it is exposed to changes in currency rates which could affect the value of the Fund.

. The Fund will use derivatives to generate returns as well as to reduce costs and/or the overall risk of the Fund. Using derivatives can involve a higher level of risk. A small movement in the price of an underlying investment may result in a disproportionately large movement in the price of the derivative investment.

. Investments in bonds are affected by interest rates and inflation trends which may affect the value of the Fund.

. The Fund holds bonds with a low credit rating that have a greater risk of default. These investments may affect the value of the Fund.

. The Fund may invest in emerging markets. These markets have additional risks due to less developed market practices.

. The Fund may invest in investments that are not traded regularly and are therefore subject to greater fluctuations in price.

. The Fund may invest in small companies which may be riskier and less liquid (i.e. harder to sell) than large companies. This means that their share prices may have greater fluctuations.

. The Fund takes its charges from the capital of the Fund. Investors should be aware that there is potential for capital erosion if insufficient capital growth is achieved by the Fund to cover the charges. Capital erosion may have the effect of reducing the level of income generated.

. The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation or one of its affiliates (‘BNYM’) has invested in the Fund. As a result of restrictions under the ‘Volcker Rule’, which has been adopted by US Regulators, BNYM must reduce its shareholding percentage so that it constitutes less than 15% of the Fund within, generally, three years of the Fund's establishment (which starts when the Fund's manager begins making investments for the Fund). Risks may include: BNYM may initially own a proportionately larger percentage of the Fund, and any mandatory reductions may increase Fund portfolio turnover rates, resulting in increased costs, expenses and taxes. Details of BNYM's investment in the Fund are available upon request.

. A complete description of risk factors is set out in the Prospectus in the section entitled ‘Risk Factors’.

Investment performance Key investment risks

Source: Newton, close of business prices, total return, income reinvested, gross of fees, in GBP, 31 December 2017. Key investment risks

Key risks Newton Multi-Asset Income Fund

Calendar year returns

YTD 2017 %

2016 %

2015 %

2014 %

2013 %

Fund 12.96 18.64 N/A N/A N/A

Index N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Your capital may be at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the original amount invested. You should read the Prospectus and the Key Investor Information Document (KIID) for each fund in which you want to invest. The Prospectus and KIID can be found at www.bnymellonim.com. Tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each client and may be subject to change in the future. Newton is not a tax expert and independent tax and/or legal advice should be sought.

Performance is stated gross of management fees. The impact of management fees can be material. A fee schedule providing further detail is available on request.

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Important information For professional investors only

This is a financial promotion. Issued in the UK by Newton Investment Management Limited. Portfolio holdings are subject to change at any time without notice and should not be construed as investment recommendations. Any reference to a specific security, country or sector should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell this security, country or sector. Where an index is used as a comparative index, this strategy does not aim to replicate either the composition or the performance of the comparative index. Where the portfolio has exposure to hedge funds, gold, private equity and property via publicly quoted transferable securities, there are additional risks associated with these sectors. The portfolio may hold derivatives. An investment in derivatives may be volatile, but the volatility of the strategy is not expected to be any greater than that of the underlying stock and fixed income markets. Where the fund is invested in sub-investment grade bonds, which typically have a low credit rating and carry a high degree of default risk, please be aware that this may affect the capital value of your investment. The value of overseas securities will be influenced by fluctuations in exchange rates. A concentrated portfolio does not have the diversity of investment that is generally expected. This means that each stock within the portfolio may have a more significant effect on its performance. Assets under management include assets managed by Newton Investment Management Ltd and Newton Investment Management (North America) Limited. In addition, AUM for Newton may include assets managed by Newton’s officers as employees of The Bank of New York Mellon and assets of

wrap fee account(s) for which Newton Investment Management (North America) Limited provides sub-advisory services to the primary manager of the wrap program. Newton Investment Management (North America) Limited and Newton Investment Management Limited are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK, and Newton Investment Management (North America) Limited is registered as an investment adviser with the SEC. The enclosed material is confidential and may not be reproduced or redistributed without the prior written consent of Newton Investment Management Limited. Nothing herein constitutes an offer to sell, or solicitation of an offer to purchase, any securities. ‘Newton’ refers to the following group of affiliated companies: Newton Investment Management Limited, Newton Investment Management (North America) Limited and Newton Investment Management (North America) LLC. NIMNA LLC personnel are supervised persons of NIMNA Ltd and NIMNA LLC does not provide investment advice, all of which is conducted by NIMNA Ltd. Except for Newton Investment Management (North America) LLC and Newton Investment Management (North America) Limited, none of the other Newton companies offer services in the US. The opinions expressed in this document are those of Newton and should not be construed as investment advice. Newton claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®). To receive a list of composite descriptions of Newton and/or a compliant presentation, contact the RFP Team at [email protected] or write to Newton Investment Management Limited, BNY Mellon Centre, 160 Queen Victoria Street, London EC4V 4LA, Tel: 020 7163 9000.

Registered office: as above. Both firms are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, are members of the IA and are Bank of New York Mellon CompaniesSM

NIM ONLY

Newton Investment Management Limited BNY Mellon Centre 160 Queen Victoria Street London EC4V 4LA Tel: 020 7163 9000 Registered in England No. 01371973 www.newtonim.com

BNY Mellon Fund Managers Limited BNY Mellon Centre 160 Queen Victoria Street London EC4V 4LA Tel: 020 7163 9000 Registered in England No. 01998251

FINANCIAL PROMOTIO

NS