MP-SOFI-SD MP-SOFI-SD ProjectProject

A Full-Scale Implementation A Full-Scale Implementation of SOFIof SOFI

AC/UNU Millennium Project, Silicon Valley Node

Peter P. Yim <peter.yim@cim3.com>

(v 3.01)

WorldFuture 2003 – the Annual Conference of the World Future Society

San Francisco, CA, USA. (July 19, 2003)

Futures Research Around the Futures Research Around the World - Part 1World - Part 1

OutlineOutline

• The MissionThe Mission• MP-SOFI-SD Project MP-SOFI-SD Project

PhasesPhases• Core Concepts and ValuesCore Concepts and Values• A Look at the SystemA Look at the System• Who are the usersWho are the users• What can one do with itWhat can one do with it• Looking at the Big PictureLooking at the Big Picture

MissionMission

• To build on the previous research of the To build on the previous research of the Millennium Project, including the Millennium Project, including the spreadsheet model, algorithm and spreadsheet model, algorithm and collection of data, and progressively collection of data, and progressively develop it into an Internet based futures develop it into an Internet based futures study and analysis tool supported over study and analysis tool supported over an open knowledge system.an open knowledge system.

MP-SOFI-SD Project MP-SOFI-SD Project PhasesPhases

• Phase 0: Strategizing, planning, staging Phase 0: Strategizing, planning, staging & requirements gathering.& requirements gathering.

• Phase 1: Initial software tool Phase 1: Initial software tool implementation and the launch of a implementation and the launch of a community of practice around SOFI.community of practice around SOFI.

• Subsequent Phases: Continuous Subsequent Phases: Continuous development and improvement of the development and improvement of the SOFI system, content and knowledge SOFI system, content and knowledge through the collaboration of open through the collaboration of open communities that are augmented by the communities that are augmented by the Internet and other technologies.Internet and other technologies.

Core Concepts & ValuesCore Concepts & Values driving this workdriving this work

• The SOFI Methodology The SOFI Methodology • The "Bootstrap" ParadigmThe "Bootstrap" Paradigm• Serving a wide variety of Serving a wide variety of

applicationsapplications• Collaboration among Collaboration among

participants and stakeholders in participants and stakeholders in the form of virtual communitiesthe form of virtual communities

• The notion of "Openness"The notion of "Openness"

The System The System (1/3) (1/3) – Design – Design CriteriaCriteria

• InteroperabilityInteroperability• OpennessOpenness• Standards ComplianceStandards Compliance• Enterprise-class Enterprise-class

RobustnessRobustness• ScalabilityScalability• ReliabilityReliability• SecuritySecurity

ArchitectuArchitecturere

The User InterfaceThe User Interface

The Users The Users (1) (1) – SOFI – SOFI DevelopersDevelopers

• Global, national, regional, NGO Global, national, regional, NGO and corporate policymakersand corporate policymakers

• Professionals, scholars, Professionals, scholars, academics academics

• Economists, political scientists, Economists, political scientists, social scientists, etc., andsocial scientists, etc., and

• The Millennium Project and its The Millennium Project and its NodesNodes

The Classes of The Classes of Users Users (2)(2)

• General publicGeneral public• Researchers, journalists, trend watchersResearchers, journalists, trend watchers• Policy makers (government, NGO, corporate, Policy makers (government, NGO, corporate,

…)…)• SOFI developers, modelers, futures researchersSOFI developers, modelers, futures researchers• Data owners (those who own and maintain Data owners (those who own and maintain

databases whose data is used to construct the databases whose data is used to construct the SOFIs)SOFIs)

• System developers (those who will contribute to System developers (those who will contribute to the software)the software)

• System Administrators (those who administer System Administrators (those who administer the SOFI system)the SOFI system)

What can we do on the What can we do on the System?System?

• Viewing/reading up Viewing/reading up • ComparisonsComparisons• Drill-downs and searches on related informationDrill-downs and searches on related information• Asking what-if questions by “tweaking” the SOFI parameters, or exercising Asking what-if questions by “tweaking” the SOFI parameters, or exercising

alternate Scenariosalternate Scenarios• Developing new SOFI'sDeveloping new SOFI's

o SOFI’s for different Countries, Regions, Municipalities, … etc. (e.g. a SOFI’s for different Countries, Regions, Municipalities, … etc. (e.g. a USA-SOFI, France-SOFI, Russia-SOFI, China-SOFI; or a EU-SOFI, USA-SOFI, France-SOFI, Russia-SOFI, China-SOFI; or a EU-SOFI, Middle-East SOFI, Greater-China SOFI, Latin-America SOFI; … etc.)Middle-East SOFI, Greater-China SOFI, Latin-America SOFI; … etc.)

o SOFIs for different government or industrial sectors (e.g. E-SOFIs for different government or industrial sectors (e.g. E-Government SOFI; Petroleum and Oil industry SOFI; Automotive Government SOFI; Petroleum and Oil industry SOFI; Automotive Industry SOFI; Aerospace industry SOFI; Science & Technology SOFI; Industry SOFI; Aerospace industry SOFI; Science & Technology SOFI; Nanotechnology SOFI; Tertiary Education SOFI; … etc.)Nanotechnology SOFI; Tertiary Education SOFI; … etc.)

o SOFI for Corporations; individual Organizations; Programs, Initiatives SOFI for Corporations; individual Organizations; Programs, Initiatives or Product Lines; …etc.or Product Lines; …etc.

• Collaboration and Collaborative DevelopmentCollaboration and Collaborative Development• Interaction and accessing data, information and knowledgeInteraction and accessing data, information and knowledge

o Human-to-machineHuman-to-machineo Human-to-humanHuman-to-humano Machine-to-machineMachine-to-machine

• Building up the system’s database and knowledgebaseBuilding up the system’s database and knowledgebase

The Big Picture The Big Picture (1)(1)

• this was not simply a software to calculate an index,

• but a framework for people to systematically think together o about what is important to the future, o how to measure it, o what is the best bang for the buck to get the whole

index up,

• alternatives to the approaches systematically vetted,

• generation of an improvement community to make better SOFIs,

• method to keep all this organized, • allowing for group and private use, • on the web and stand alone, … etc.

The Big Picture The Big Picture (2)(2)

• it's not just software, but rather, it is about the co-evolution of tool systems and human systems

• this is not even about technology, but about how people can handle change and ever increasing complexities in the world we live in – improving our ability to systematically measure, analyze, manage, be ready, be responsiveness, and

• be able to make informed decisions and cope with the ever more urgent and complex “challenges”

• We are creating the environment for distributed collaborative development and innovation• We have building an infrastructure to harness collective

intelligence• expecting emergent patterns and behaviors

ReferencesReferences

• The Chapters (Ch. 22 & Ch. 23) on SOFI The Chapters (Ch. 22 & Ch. 23) on SOFI and its Full Implementation on “and its Full Implementation on “Futures Research Methodology v2.0Futures Research Methodology v2.0””

• Copy of this presentation is available at: Copy of this presentation is available at: http://mp.cim3.net/file/project/mp-sofi-sd/presentation/mp-sofi-sd-P3.htm

• [MP-SOFI-SD] Project Documents are [MP-SOFI-SD] Project Documents are accessible from: accessible from: http://mp.cim3.net/file/project/mp-sofi-sd/home.html

Q & A Q & A and and

DiscussionDiscussion