SOFI Czech Republic:

Tentative outcomes

Pavel NováčekPavel NováčekPetr KladivoPetr Kladivo

Jan MacháčekJan MacháčekJiří TeichmannJiří Teichmann

Millennium Project, Central European Node

Department of Development StudiesFaculty of SciencePalacky University Olomouc17. listopadu 12, 771 46 Olomouc, Czech Republic

Aims:

Calculation of simple regional SOFI (14 regions in the Czech Republic)

Calculation of complex baseline SOFI as well as partial SOFIs for the Czech Republic (demography, social, economy, environmental)

Analysis of regional differences - period 2001 - 2010

Classification of regions according to selected criteria

Methods:

Calculation of „simple“ SOFI (2001-2010), all variables have equal weight (1)všechny proměnné mají stejnou váhu, SOFI calculated also for each of 14 regions within Czech Republic, Real Time Delphi will be done later (probably autumn 2012)

Variables:

First results:

thematic SOFI CR 2001-2010

Future Oriented Thinking Index (FOTI)

Why are the poor poor and the rich are rich?

The answer might lie somewhere else other than in the known theories of development.

There are three basic guidelines that seek explanation:

a) dependence theory, b) the influence of geographical and environmental factorsc) culturological approach

Future Oriented Thinking Index (FOTI)

Maybe every development theory has some truth in itself, but what we need is to create some inventive synthesis.

Perhaps future-oriented thinking it the principal key to prosperity and success.

If future oriented thinking is important factor to prosperity and success, then we need instrument how to measure it – the Future Oriented Thinking Index (FOTI).

Future Oriented Thinking Index (FOTI)

Max Weber pointed to the Protestant ethic and its influence on the development of capitalism in Europe and North America.

The postponement of current consumption, savings, investment, hard work, all with the vision of God´s salvation after this life; that is a typical example of future-oriented thinking which determines our current behavior and actions.

Therefore it is desirable to formulate a Future Oriented Thinking Index (FOTI), which would complement such indexes as GDP, HDI, SOFI and others.

Future Oriented Thinking Index (FOTI)

FOTI is by methodological approach close to the SOFI developed by Theodore J. Gordon and the Millennium Project.

But FOTI should focus more on identyfying how people are able to take into account future challenges and behave according to them, less on „state of the future“ (measuring whether situation will improve or deteriorate).

Tentatively 23 indicators are proposed to calculate FOTI.

FOTI – tentative proposal of indicators

Education

1. Public expenditures on higher education

2. Percentage of households connected to internet

3. Research expenditures

FOTI – tentative proposal of indicators

Health

1. Public expenditures for health prevention

2. Consumption of alcohol, cigarettes and drugs

3. Percentage of overweight people in society

FOTI – tentative proposal of indicators

Economy

1. Income distribution – GINI Index2. Households savings3. Values of external debt4. Values of inherent debt5. Total debt service6. Internal debt of country expresssed as degree of neglected infrastructure (roads,

buildings,…)7. Official development assistance (ODA) expenditures

FOTI – tentative proposal of indicators

Environment

1. Expenditures to renewable energy resources and into energy savings2. Expenditures of households to buy ecological food3. Recycling (% of recycled paper, alluminium etc.)4. Ratio of total number of cars and bicycles in country5. CO2 emissions6. Percentage of nationally protected areas

FOTI – tentative proposal of indicators

Other

1. People voting in elections2. Percentage of religious people actively practicing their religion3. Ratio of households expenditures for food and for culture4. Number of accepted patents in one year

FOTI – tentative proposal of indicators

Additional indicators were proposed by two MP members as first feedback:

1. Per capita cell phone2. Per capita number of servers3. Price of high speed connection4. Doctors per 100 000 people5. Scientists per capita6. Futures courses per capita7. Think tanks per capita8. Percent government budget for long-range planning9. Subscriptions per capita to futurists magazines10. Number of hits on Google in search of the country and the term „future country x“11. Websites with the name future in it per capita

FOTI – next steps

Next step should be to select final list of indicators.

All data should be publicly accessible sources.

The overall index then should be calculated for individual countries as an arithmetical average of all selected variables (individual indicators)

Polish Subnode

Translation of SOF 2011 Executive Summary into Polish

Spreading the word: Distribution of the Polish translation of SOF 2011 Executive Summary among Polish entrepreneurs, government officials and scientists

Introducing SOFI methodology to the Polish Club of Rome and Polish Academy of Sciences

Cooperation with Economic University of Cracow in the area of futures studies and technology foresight

Cooperation with University of Warsaw – the first ever Polish course in humanities through futures studies will be taught starting October 2012

Polish Subnode

Launching www.ptsp.pl – a futurology and foresight oriented Web portal created in a cooperation with the Polish Futures Studies Society. It is quickly rising in popularity in Poland and becoming an important reference for Polish internet users. Its development is threefold:

1. News section, presenting current, punctual information2. Weekly topics – reviews, comments, reports3. A growing volume of general futures´resources, translated by authors´courtesy from

original languages

Slovak Subnode

International Colloquium Designing the Future in Europe 2011 (October, Prague) – Civic Futurological Society

Conference Global Existencial Risks 2011 (30. November – 1. December 2012, Bratislava) – Slovak Society for Environment

International Conference 40 Years of Limits to Growth (March 2012, Bratislava) – Slovak Association for the Club of Rome

Seminar: Gunter Pauli – Blue Economy (May 2012, Bratislava) – Slovak Association for the Club of Rome

Seminar: Conscious Evolution and Creative Design of Syntropic Economic Theory (March 2012, Prague) – Civic Futurological Society

Seminar: From Limits to Growth to Blue Economy – Forty Years of Publishing Reports to the Club of Rome (June 2012, Prague) – Civic Futurological Society

Slovak Subnode – scheduled activities

Conference Global Existencial Risks 2012 (November, Bratislava) – Slovak Society for Environment

International Colloquium Designing Future in Europe 2013 (Prague) – Civic Futurological Society

International Conference Global Problems, Local Solutions 2013 (Bratislava) – Slovak Association for the Club of Rome

Thank you for your attention

Pavel Nováček

Central European Node

pavel.novacek@upol.cz