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More Likely, Less LikelyObjective  Determine whether events are more likely or less likely. 

Use the vocabulary cards to play your  favorite classroom games: Charades, Twenty Questions, and so on. To win points, children supply terms or definitions.

Materials  For the teacher and each group  bowl, large red, blue, green, and yellow  bear counters

Engage and ExploreAsk, Is it likely or unlikely to snow on a summer day? Discuss the terms likely and unlikely and other terms children may use, such as always, maybe, sometimes, never, and certain. Show children a bowl with 1 green and 5 red bear counters. Ask, Am I more or less likely to pull a red bear than a green bear? Explain that an event that is more likely to occur will probably happen more often than an event that is less likely.

Have children take turns placing various numbers of bears of two colors in a bowl and deciding which colors they are more likely and less likely to pull.

Explain• Describe a situation where you are less likely to pull a

yellow bear than a blue bear. if there are fewer yellow than blue bears

• When are you most likely to pull a red bear from a bowl of bears? when there are more red bears 

Elaborate and EvaluatePlace 2 green and 7 yellow bears in a bowl. Have children tell if each is more or less likely to be pulled.

1.  green bear   less likely

2.   yellow bear more likely

Daily Routine

Problem of the DayEmma packs a picnic basket with 4 red apples and 1 green apple. Is she more likely or less likely to pull a red apple from the basket than a green apple? more likely

For a complete solution, see the back of the TE.

Calendar Activity • Spiral ReviewGuide children to see that there are more 2-digit than 1-digit numbers in this month’s calendar. Ask, If I close my eyes and point to a date, am I more

likely or less likely to point to a 1-digit number than a 2-digit number?

SeptemberSunday Monday TueSday WedneSday ThurSday Friday SaTurday

1 2 3 4 5

6 7 8 9 10 11 12

13 14 15 16 17 18 19

20 21 22 23 24 25 26

27 28 29 30

195A Chapter 9

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Lesson Planning

Essential Question  How can you tell if an event is more likely or less likely?

About the Math

•  Have children brainstorm everyday events that are  more likely or less likely to occur. For example, it is  more likely that they will play outside on a sunny day than a rainy day.

•  Explain to children that two events that have the same chance of occurring are equally likely to occur. Neither event is more likely or less likely to happen.

9.4

10–15 minutes

more likely

less likely

NCTM Standards  Data Analysis and Probability   Discuss events related to students’ experiences as likely  or unlikely.

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Objective  Sort by color and  identify more and less likely.

Materials  For partners red and  blue connecting cubes, bag, index cards  labeled “more likely” and “less likely”

Some children may mix up more likely and less likely.

•   Remind children that when there is more of an object, that object is more likely to be chosen. When there is less of an object, it is less likely to be chosen.

•   Have one partner choose different numbers of red and blue cubes and place them randomly in a bag.

•   The other partner takes the cubes out of the bag and sorts them into two groups: red and blue. Partners place the cards “more likely” and “less likely” next to each color group. Partners switch roles and repeat.

For more help, use   Intervention, Strategic Skills S15, S16. For practice, return to page 196.

Lesson 9.4 195B

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Differentiated Instruction

Learn Math Vocabulary

Check Prior Knowledge:  Check to see if children understand more likely and less likely. Tell children that likely means something that can be expected to happen. Have children raise a hand if the statement is true:

1.  More likely means that something has a better chance of happening than it has if it is    less likely. 

2.   A jar has 100 green beads and 1 white bead. Sue is less likely to pull a white bead than a green one. 

Comprehension:  Events can be likely or unlikely. If they are likely, they can be compared to each other to determine which event has more chances of happening.

Josh has 7 containers of clay. Mason has 9 containers of clay. Does Josh have more or less clay than Mason? less Who is less likely to run out of clay first? Mason, he has more clay than Josh.

Sam has 3 jars of paint. Ben has 1 jar of paint. Does Sam have more or less paint than Ben? more Who is more likely to run out of paint first? Ben, he has less paint than Sam.

For Beginning, Intermediate, and Advanced activities, see the ELL Kit.

Objective  Predict more and less  likely events on spinners and use  a tally chart to record spins and  check predictions.

Materials  For partners 8–Section Spinners and  Tally Chart (see Teaching Resource Book)

•   Have partners label 5 sections of an 8–section spinner with the number “1” and 3 sections with “2.” Have them predict which number they are more likely and less likely to land on, then spin the spinner 10 times and record the results in a tally chart to check their predictions.

•   If time allows, have pairs label another spinner with 2 different numbers and repeat the activity. Explain to children that just because they are more likely to spin a number does not mean it will happen.

Visual, Kinesthetic10–15 minutes10–15 minutes

Kinesthetic

10–15 minutes

ELL Math LanguagE 9.4

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More Likely, Less LikelyOBJECTIVE • Determine whether events are more likely or less likely.

Vocabularymore likelyless likely

Mark an X to tell if pulling the bear from the bowl is more likely or less likely.

Pull From More Likely Less Likely

1. X

2.

3.

4.

Why is pulling a more likely than pulling a in Exercise 4? Explain.

Pulling red is more likely than

pulling yellow.

Pulling yellow is less likely than

pulling red.

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one hundred ninety-fi ve 195Chapter 9 • Lesson 4

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There are more green bears than blue bears.

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© Harcourt • Grade 1ReteachRW57

More Likely, Less Likely

There are more black bears. So pulling a black bear is more likely.

There are fewer gray bears. So pulling a gray bear is less likely.

Circle the color you are more likely to pull.

1. 2.

3. 4.

Circle the color you are less likely to pull.

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PW57 Practice © Harcourt • Grade 3

Name Lesson 9.4

Problem Solving

1.

More Likely, Less Likely

Mark an X to tell if pulling the from the is more likely or less likely.

6. Circle the bear that is most likely to be pulled. Cross out the bear that is least likely to be pulled.

2.

3.

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5.

Pull From More Likely Less Likely

CommonT

See Investigate the Lesson Concept, p. 195A.  See ELL Language Support, p. 195B.

Quick Review  Circle possible or impossible. 

1.  pull a green bear

  possible impossible 

Explore  Use these questions to build understanding. 

Math Conversation Reasoning

• How is less likely different than impossible? Impossible cannot happen. Less likely won’t happen often.

• Describe a time when you are equally likely to pull a red or a yellow bear from a bowl. when there are the same number of red and yellow bears

Connect  Discuss Exercises 1–2.

Check for Understanding • Use Exercises 3 and 4 as every-child response.

Lesson 9.4

Lesson OrganizerVocabulary Power, p. 195A more likely,  less likely

Lesson Resources  ELL Kit Teacher Guide

Interventiona child misses  3 and  4

…Intervene with

• Reteach Activity, TE p. 195B• Reteach 9.4•   Intervention, On-Level Skill L41

Summarize  Use Talk Math to focus on children’s understanding of the Essential Question.

Practice/hOmewOrk 9.4reteach 9.4

195 Chapter 9

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Mark an X to tell if pulling the bear from the bowl is more likely or less likely.

Pull From More Likely Less Likely

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6. Circle the bear that is most likely to be pulled. Mark an X on the bear that is least likely to be pulled.

Explain why yellow is more likely to be pulled than green and red together.

TAKE HOME ACTIVITY • Put 5 pennies and 3 nickels in a bowl. Ask your child if pulling a penny is more likely or less likely than pulling a nickel. Have your child explain the answer.

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Possible answer: there are 5 yellow bears. There are three green and red bears.

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EnrichEW57© Harcourt • Grade 1

Lesson 9.4

Look at the objects in the bowl.Write more or less.

1. is likely than

2. is — likely than

3. is — likely than

Stretch Your Thinking Draw so

that and are equally likely.

Look at the numbers on the spinner to solve.

Draw to solve.

4. Which number is most likely to be spun? —

5. Which number is least likely to be spun? —

6. Draw so that

is less likely than to be pulled.

More or Less, Most and Least

lessmore

less

2

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Check children’s drawings.Children must draw at least one ball but fewer than 5 balls.

Check children’s drawings. Children must draw equal numbers of each object.

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Problem SolvingPS57© Harcourt • Grade 1

Lesson 9.4

More Likely, Less Likely

Jana puts 10 marbles in a box.4 marbles are red and 6 are blue.Is she more likely to pull a red marble or a blue marble?

1. Color the marbles to show the problem.

2. Are there more red or blue marbles?

3. Which color is Jana more likely to pull?

Color to show the problem.Tell which is less likely.

4. Sam puts 9 blocks in a box. 2 are green and 7 are orange. Which color is he less likely to pull?

5. Challenge There are blue and green presents on the table. Color the presents so that it is more likely to choose a green present.

blue

Lesson 9.4

blue

green

4 marbles should be red and 6 should be blue.

7 blocks should be orange and 2 should be green.

Check that children color more presents green than

blue.

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REMEMBER!

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Practice  Have children model each exercise with bear counters and a bowl, if necessary.

Problem Solving Reasoning

Explain that the color that is most likely to be pulled is the color of the greatest number of bears and that the color that is least likely to be pulled is the color of the fewest number of bears.

For the advanced learner, see Advanced Learners activity, p. 195B.

Closure Today we learned whether events are more likely or less likely to happen.

Assess  Show a bowl with 5 blue circles and 2 yellow circles. Are you more likely to pull a blue circle or a yellow circle? blue circle

Add.

1.  4 + 4 =   8    2.  5 + 4 =   9  

3.  6 + 5 =   11    4.  7 + 3 =   10  

5.   Jake is standing sixth in line for lunch. How many children are in front of him in the line?

A 1 child C 6 children

B 5 children D 7 children

Mixed Review and Test Prep

9.4

worksheet on page 195B

Practice Workbook p. SR14

PrObLem SOLving 9.4enrich 9.4

9.4

Lesson 9.4 196

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