MONTHLY AGRIBUSINESS BRAZILMONTHLY AGRIBUSINESS BRAZIL³cio_Bras… · It also maintained its forecast for Brazil at 100 million tonnes, but increased its estimate for Argentina from

Household and business confidence are beginning to show some signs of stabilization, although they are still extremely low, reflecting concerns over the sustainability of the public accounts and the political uncertainties. There has been no interruption in Brazil’s economic slowdown, which is sustaining the worsening of the job market. Frustration with tax collection and the need to raise revenue and reduce spending have increased the challenges facing the fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the signals coming from the economy remain disappointing and we expect GDP to shrink by 3.5% in 2016, following last year’s reduction of 3.9%, remembering that the IBGE will publish these figures on March 3. The weakening of domestic activity and the difficulty in adjusting the public accounts, as well as the dollar’s global scale upward tendency and the slide in commodity prices, should ensure continuing pressure on the exchange rate, which is out of step with the economic fundamentals and which we believe will close the year at US$/R$4.00. Given the poor performance of the economy, we expect the IPCA consumer price index to move up by 6.9% this year. As a result of this decompression over last year (10.67%), as well as the uncertain global outlook and the Brazilian recession, we expect the Selic benchmark interest rate to close the year at 13.25%.

The increase in global market volatility at the beginning of the year is still ongoing, reflecting the uncertainties over China’s performance and the possible impacts on the commodity production chains and the global economy, especially the emerging nations. As a result, given their concerns with the risks associated with the international scenario, central banks around the world are signaling the possibility of expanding the monetary stimuli if there is any threat to the economic recovery of their countries. This is also the case with the Federal Reserve, which may suspend the continuation of the monetary normalization process begun at the end of last year (or make it even more gradual).

February 2016

Macroeconomic Research Department

Macroeconomic Outlook

MONTHLY AGRIBUSINESS BRAZIL MONTHLY AGRIBUSINESS BRAZIL

Executive Summary Soybeans International prices should remain low in response to high global stocks. The development of La Niña in the

coming months may lead to some price volatility during the planting season in the U.S., between May and June, and in Brazil, between September and October. Domestic prices will remain high, benefiting from the weak real.

Corn International prices should continue at their moderately high level, reflecting reduced production in the USA and

Brazil, although a bigger upturn will be limited by the elevated stocks to use ratio. Domestic prices remain high, favored by the devaluation of the real, but should give way in the coming months with the entry of the 1st crop. This tendency should become more intense in the second half with the entry of the 2nd harvest, which is expected to reach record levels.

Coffee International prices should remain stable at low levels, given the favorable Brazilian harvest estimate. Prices in

reais should remain high, benefiting from the weak real. However, prices are likely to show substantial volatility in line with news on the development of the Brazilian crop and the possible negative effects of El Niño on the Asian harvests.

Cattle Domestic meat demand will continue to flounder in response to the need to adjust household budgets. Supply of

animals ready for slaughter will remain limited by high feed costs during confinement. Although domestic demand will continue to ensure low cattle prices, future BMF prices should continue to be sustained by expectations of export growth.

Sugar and Ethanol Sugar prices should continue to move up moderately in response to the improved adjustment between global

supply and demand. Ethanol prices should remain high, benefiting from robust demand to the detriment of gasoline. However, with the entry of the new harvest in March, prices should begin to fall, reflecting the expected upturn in production this year.


15.39419.419

25.934 26.16031.370 32.345

41.917

52.01849.989

55.02760.018

57.162

68.688

75.324

66.383

81.49986.121

96.228100.933

8.000

17.000

26.000

35.000

44.000

53.000

62.000

71.000

80.000

89.000

98.000

107.000

90/9

1

91/9

2

92/9

3

93/9

4

94/9

5

95/9

6

96/9

7

97/9

8

98/9

9

99/0

0

00/0

1

01/0

2

02/0

3

03/0

4

04/0

5

05/0

6

06/0

7

07/0

8

08/0

9

09/1

0

10/1

1

11/1

2

12/1

3

13/1

4

14/1

5

15/1

6*

2

SO

YB

EA

NS

Soybean – International prices should remain low in response to high global stocks. The development of La Niña in the coming months may lead to some price volatility during the planting season in the U.S., between May and June, and in Brazil, between September and October. Domestic prices will remain high, benefiting from the weak real

Fundamentals

In this month’s report, the USDA maintained its U.S. production estimate for the 2015/16 harvest, which has now been concluded, at 107.0 million tonnes. It also maintained its forecast for Brazil at 100 million tonnes, but increased its estimate for Argentina from 57 to 58.5 million tonnes. As a result, the stocks to use ratio was raised from 25.2% to 25.6%.

Conab’s 5th 2015/16 harvest survey revised estimated soybean production down for the second consecutive month. Output is now estimated at 100.9 million tonnes, versus last month’s forecast of 102.1 million tonnes, primarily due to expectations of lower yields in Mato Grosso, which suffered from very low rainfall during the most important period of plant development.

Nevertheless, soybean is the current season’s best performer, being the only crop to record an increase in planted area in response to healthy profitability as a result of the appreciation of the dollar. This will therefore be the fourth consecutive year of record soybean output, with growth of 6.1% over the previous harvest.

The meteorological services are pointing to the growing likelihood of the formation of La Niña as of July/August, which is the period of crop development in the USA, possibly intensifying as of September/October, the planting period in Brazil. The effects of La Niña are the opposite to those of El Niño, which has affected the current harvest. Drier weather is therefore expected in the South of the country, with more rainfall in the Northeast, as well as dry weather in the United States, leading to a possible reduction in yields in both the U.S. and the South of Brazil.

International prices should remain at their current low levels, reflecting high global stocks and the record harvest in Brazil. Attention will be highly concentrated on the development of La Niña in the coming months, which may lead to some price volatility during the planting season in the U.S., between May and June, and in Brazil, between September and October. On the other hand, domestic prices will remain high, benefiting from the weak real.

Source and Estimate: Conab Production: BRADESCO

National production of soybeans 1991 – 2016 – in ´000 tons


18,04

26,63

19,98

43,93

32,42

48,15

22,57

28,62

27,03

44,37

39,81

30,59

45,68

40,14

73,92

50,53

61,83

53,38

66,10

70,82

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

80,0

jan/

00

jan/

01

jan/

02

jan/

03

jan/

04

jan/

05

jan/

06

jan/

07

jan/

08

jan/

09

jan/

10

jan/

11

jan/

12

jan/

13

jan/

14

jan/

15

jan/

16

dez/

16

3

Source: Deral Production and Estimate:

BRADESCO

Soybean producer price – Paraná

2000 – 2016 in R$ per 60 kg bag

Source: Bloomberg Production: BRADESCO

International soybean prices (US$ cents/bushel) 2000 – 2016

491

546 507

436

632

567

989

526

689

542

757

1.515

908

1.211

1.143

1.674

1.525

1.287

1.486

1.178

965883

400,0

600,0

800,0

1.000,0

1.200,0

1.400,0

1.600,0

1.800,0

jan/

00

jan/

01

jan/

02

jan/

03

jan/

04

jan/

05

jan/

06

jan/

07

jan/

08

jan/

09

jan/

10

jan/

11

jan/

12

jan/

13

jan/

14

jan/

15

jan/

16

dez/

16

Soybean productivity – 1991 – 2016 in kg per hectare

Source and estimate: Conab Production: BRADESCO

1.580

2.027

2.1502.221

2.175

2.2992.367 2.395

2.751

2.567

2.816

2.3392.245

2.419

2.816

2.629

2.927

3.115

2.651

2.9382.854

2.9983.037

1.500

1.700

1.900

2.100

2.300

2.500

2.700

2.900

3.100

3.300

90/9

1

91/9

2

92/9

3

93/9

4

94/9

5

95/9

6

96/9

7

97/9

8

98/9

9

99/0

0

00/0

1

01/0

2

02/0

3

03/0

4

04/0

5

05/0

6

06/0

7

07/0

8

08/0

9

09/1

0

10/1

1

11/1

2

12/1

3

13/1

4

14/1

5

15/1

6*

Macroeconomic Research Department 4

CO

RN

Corn – International prices should continue at their moderately high level, reflecting reduced production in the USA and Brazil, although a bigger upturn will be limited by the elevated stocks to use ratio. Domestic prices remain high, favored by the devaluation of the real, but should give way in the coming months with the entry of the 1st crop. This tendency should become more intense in the second half with the entry of the 2nd harvest, which is expected to reach record levels

Fundamentals This month’s USDA harvest report maintained its estimate of U.S. production, which has already been

concluded, at 345.5 million tonnes, but increased its estimates for Argentina, from 25.6 to 27 million tonnes, and Brazil, from 81.5 to 84 million tonnes. In comparison with the previous month, the stocks to use ratio remained flat at 21.6%, still above the last harvest’s figure, which closed at 19.8%.

Conab’s 5th 2015/16 harvest survey, published this month, raised its production estimate for the 1st corn crop, whose harvesting will begin in March, from the previous month’s 27.7 million tonnes to 28.3 million tonnes. Output from the 2nd crop, whose planting begins as of February, is estimated at 55 million tonnes, giving total production of 83.3 million tonnes, 2.8% down on the previous season.

One important aspect that deserves attention in the coming months is the growing likelihood of the formation of the La Niña weather phenomenon as of July/August, the plant development period in the United States, possibly intensifying as of September/October, the planting period in Brazil. The effects of La Niña are the opposite to those of El Niño, which has affected the current harvest. Drier weather is therefore expected in the South of the country, with more rainfall in the Northeast, as well as dry weather in the United States, leading to a possible reduction in yields in both the U.S. and South of Brazil.

International corn prices should continue at their moderately high level, reflecting reduced production in the USA and Brazil, although a bigger upturn will be limited by the elevated stocks to use ratio. There may be some volatility during the planting periods in the USA, between April and May, and Brazil, between September and November. Domestic prices are still being favored by the devaluation of the real, but are likely to fall back in the coming months with the entry of the new harvest. The downturn may become more accentuated in the second half, with the entry of the 2nd crop, which is expected to reach record levels.

Source and estimates: Conab Production: BRADESCO

Domestic corn production 1991 – 2016 in ´000 tons

24.096

30.77133.174

37.442 35.71632.393

42.290

35.281

47.411

42.129

35.007

42.515

51.370

58.652

51.00456.018

57.407

72.980

81.506 80.05284.673 83.336

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000

70.000

80.000

90.000

90/9

1

91/9

2

92/9

3

93/9

4

94/9

5

95/9

6

96/9

7

97/9

8

98/9

9

99/0

0

00/0

1

01/0

2

02/0

3

03/0

4

04/0

5

05/0

6

06/0

7

07/0

8

08/0

9

09/1

0

10/1

1

11/1

2

12/1

3

13/1

4

14/1

5

15/1

6*


Corn productivity – in kg per hectare 1991 – 2016


Source: Deral Production and Estimate:

BRADESCO

Corn producer price – Paraná

2000 – 2016 in R$ per 60 kg bag


International Corn prices (US$ cents/bushel) 2000 – 2016

217235

267

215

316

237

413

326

493

711

418

322347

546

750

598

766

661

440

502

337367

391

160

260

360

460

560

660

760

860

jan/

00

jan/

01

jan/

02

jan/

03

jan/

04

jan/

05

jan/

06

jan/

07

jan/

08

jan/

09

jan/

10

jan/

11

jan/

12

jan/

13

jan/

14

jan/

15

jan/

16

dez/

1611,95

7,05

11,40

22,28

18,96

16,26

10,44

14,14

24,94

13,07

19,96

26,92

17,26

23,29

17,8419,17

24,34

29,60

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

35,0

jan/

00

jan/

01

jan/

02

jan/

03

jan/

04

jan/

05

jan/

06

jan/

07

jan/

08

jan/

09

jan/

10

jan/

11

jan/

12

jan/

13

jan/

14

jan/

15

jan/

16

dez/

16

1.791

2.1942.3492.344

2.6222.356

2.5882.6502.5892.480

3.260

2.864

3.585

3.296

2.867

3.279

3.655

3.972

3.599

4.3114.158

4.808

5.149 5.057

5.396 5.432

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

5.000

5.500

6.000

90/9

1

91/9

2

92/9

3

93/9

4

94/9

5

95/9

6

96/9

7

97/9

8

98/9

9

99/0

0

00/0

1

01/0

2

02/0

3

03/0

4

04/0

5

05/0

6

06/0

7

07/0

8

08/0

9

09/1

0

10/1

1

11/1

2

12/1

3

13/1

4

14/1

5

15/1

6*


Fundamentals

The USDA’s mid-December report reduced estimated Brazilian output from the 2015/16 harvest, which has already been concluded in Brazil, from 52.4 million bags, estimated in June, to 49.4 million bags in December, reflecting the impact of the drought in the Southeast region last year. In the case of the global crop, the USDA lowered its estimate from 152.7 million to 150.1 million bags between the same two periods, primarily due to the downward revision for Brazil. These revisions have helped sustain coffee prices in recent months. In the case of Vietnam, which produces robusta coffee and which is currently in the harvesting period, the USDA estimated production expansion from 28.6 to 29.3 million bags between the two surveys. However, Vicofa, the local coffee growers’ association, estimated output of just 18 million bags, in response to the low prices received for the previous harvest, which discouraged planting. According to the meteorological services, El Niño should lead to lack of rainfall in the equatorial regions, possibly jeopardizing the crops in such coffee-producing countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia and Colombia. It is worth remembering that the 2015/16 crop is currently in the harvesting phase in Vietnam and Colombia, while in Brazil, harvesting has been concluded (harvesting of Brazil’s 2016/17 crop will begin in April). The USDA’s next six-monthly report will be published in mid-June, when we will have a clearer picture of the harvest estimates for these countries.

In January, Conab published its first survey of Brazil’s 2016/17 crop, the higher of the two-year coffee cycle, which estimated production of 50.5 million 60 kg bags, 16.9% up on the 43.2 million bags produced in the previous harvest. Arabica output is expected to move up by 21.1% over the 32.1 million bags recorded last year, reaching 38.8 million bags. The upturn is due to favorable weather conditions and the increase in planted area in Minas Gerais and São Paulo. Robusta output is estimated at 11.7 million bags, 4.9% more than the 11.2 million bags produced in the previous harvest, fueled by the increase in planted area in Bahia. In Espírito Santo, the state that produces the most robusta, planted area was reduced, due to the difficulties confronting growers due to weather variations last year.

International prices should remain stable at their current low levels, given the favorable Brazilian harvest estimate, but domestic prices in reais should remain high, benefiting from the weak real. However, prices are likely to show substantial volatility in line with news on the development of the Brazilian harvest, which begins in April, and the possible negative effects of El Niño on the Asian harvests.

6

CO

FFE

E

Domestic coffee production – 1994 – 2016 in ´000 60 kg bags


26.000

16.800

27.500

18.860

34.547

27.170

31.10028.137

48.480

28.820

39.272

32.944

42.512

36.070

45.992

39.470

48.095

43.484

50.82649.152

45.34243.235

50.535

11.000

21.000

31.000

41.000

51.000

61.000

94/9

5

95/9

6

96/9

7

97/9

8

98/9

9

99/0

0

00/0

1

01/0

2

02/0

3

03/0

4

04/0

5

05/0

6

06/0

7

07/0

8

08/0

9

09/1

0

10/1

1

11/1

2

12/1

3

13/1

4

14/1

5

15/1

6

16/1

7*

Coffee – International prices should remain stable at low levels, given the favorable Brazilian harvest estimate. Prices in reais should remain high, benefiting from the weak real. However, prices are likely to show substantial volatility in line with news on the development of the Brazilian crop and the possible negative effects of El Niño on the Asian harvests



International Coffee Prices 2000 - 2016 In US$ cents/ Lb

Source: BMF BOVESPA Production: BRADESCO

Arabica coffee – São Paulo 2000 – 2016

in US$ per 60 kg bag

115,06

63,07 65,9567,78

99,48

127,53

96,55

131,18

152,04

108,67

142,45

204,99

272,07

180,03

150,03

117,62

197,02

118,14117,85

25,0

75,0

125,0

175,0

225,0

275,0

325,0

jan/

00

jan/

01

jan/

02

jan/

03

jan/

04

jan/

05

jan/

06

jan/

07

jan/

08

jan/

09

jan/

10

jan/

11

jan/

12

jan/

13

jan/

14

jan/

15

jan/

16

dez/

16

223,6 239,8

337,0

230,4

291,4

245,8

269,8

247,5

328,0

530,8

457,8 408,6

247,7

366,3

480,1

424,0

479,3

523,8528,0

90,0

140,0

190,0

240,0

290,0

340,0

390,0

440,0

490,0

540,0

590,0

jan/

00

jan/

01

jan/

02

jan/

03

jan/

04

jan/

05

jan/

06

jan/

07

jan/

08

jan/

09

jan/

10

jan/

11

jan/

12

jan/

13

jan/

14

jan/

15

jan/

16

dez/

16


Fundamentals Although beef export volume began moving up as of the beginning of the second half of last year in

response to the depreciation of the real, it still fell by 13.3% in 2015 as a whole, reflecting reduced purchases by Russia (-47.9%) and Venezuela (-40.4%), both of which were suffering from the effects of the reduction in oil prices and the devaluation of their respective currencies against the dollar, which made meat imports more expensive.

This year, the depreciation of the real will continue to fuel shipment expansion, as will two other exceptionally important factors: (i) the opening of several markets to Brazilian beef, namely the United States, China, Japan, South Africa, Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia; and (ii) the reduction in Australian exports to Asian countries due to the lower number of animals ready for slaughter. The USDA expects Brazilian beef export volume to increase by 9.2% this year, while Abiec (the meat exporters’ association) estimates an upturn of 21%.

The wholesale meat price trajectory is giving indications that consumers are replacing purchases of lower quality beef cuts with chicken. Between mid-2015 and the beginning of February 2016, the price of lower quality cuts fell by 4% on average while chicken prices increased by 15%. Domestic meat consumption, especially of beef, which is more expensive, will tend to fall off, reflecting the worsening of the job market and lower consumer earnings.

Despite the improved weather, contributing to good pasture maintenance, the supply of animals ready for slaughter should remain extremely limited this year due to the slaughter of females in previous years. In 2015, restricted supply led to an 8.6% reduction in the number of animals slaughtered and these restrictions are likely to remain this year, due to the high cost of corn-based feed limiting confinement expansion.

Domestic beef demand should cool in the coming months, reflecting the continuing deterioration of the job market and the need to adjust household budgets. Despite higher rainfall improving pasture maintenance, supply should remain limited, given that high feed costs will hinder confinement growth. Although the slowing of domestic demand will continue to ensure low cattle prices in the months ahead, future BMF prices should continue to be sustained by expectations of higher exports, favored by the exchange rate and the opening of new markets.

8

BE

EF

Brazilian beef exports (in tons) 2013 – 2015

Source: SECEX Production: BRADESCO

104.974

120.133

80.000

90.000

100.000

110.000

120.000

130.000

140.000

150.000

jan fev mar abr mai jun jul ago set out nov dez

201320142015

Cattle – Domestic meat demand will continue to flounder in response to the need to adjust household budgets. Supply of animals ready for slaughter will remain limited by high feed costs during confinement. Although domestic demand will continue to ensure low cattle prices, future BMF prices should continue to be sustained by expectations of export growth


42,251,7

61,8

93,3

74,5

109,6 106,9

90,897,0

108,4

125,2

150,7 155,2

163,4

20,0

40,0

60,0

80,0

100,0

120,0

140,0

160,0

180,0

jan/

02

jan/

03

jan/

04

jan/

05

jan/

06

jan/

07

jan/

08

jan/

09

jan/

10

jan/

11

jan/

12

jan/

13

jan/

14

jan/

15

jan/

16

dez/

16

Live cattle – producer price – São Paulo – 2002 – 2016 in R$ per arroba

Source: Cepea Production: BRADESCO

Slaughter Cattle in thousand heads

2013 - 2015

Source : MAPA Production : BRADESCO

2.294

2.485

2.2562.208

1.962

1.800

2.000

2.200

2.400

2.600

jan fev mar abr mai jun jul ago set out nov dez

201320142015


222.429 223.460240.944

287.810314.969

257.592

320.650359.316

431.413

474.800

559.432

604.514623.905

560.364588.916

658.822634.767

658.702

150.000

250.000

350.000

450.000

550.000

650.000

90/9

1

91/9

2

92/9

3

93/9

4

94/9

5

95/9

6

96/9

7

97/9

8

98/9

9

99/0

0

00/0

1

01/0

2

02/0

3

03/0

4

04/0

5

05/0

6

06/0

7

07/0

8

08/0

9

09/1

0

10/1

1

11/1

2

12/1

3

13/1

4

14/1

5

15/1

6*

Fundamentals

In its latest report published in December, Conab estimated sugarcane production from the Brazilian 2015/16 harvest at 658.7 million tonnes, 3.8% up on the previous crop and slightly higher than August’s estimate of 655.2 million tonnes due to improved weather conditions. Conab’s next survey will be published in mid-April and will contain the first estimate for the 2016/17 harvest.

The USDA’s November survey indicated an improved adjustment between global supply and demand, with the stocks to use ratio falling from 26%, in the previous harvest, to 22.9%. The USDA’s next six-monthly report will be released in mid-May. Specialist international consulting firms are pointing to a global sugar industry deficit following five consecutive years of surplus.

According to Unica, two months before the end of sugarcane processing from the 2015/16 crop, crushed volume in the Center-South was 4.7% higher than in the same period last year, while production of sugar and anhydrous ethanol (mixed with gasoline) were down by 4.3% and 3.1%, respectively. On the other hand, output of hydrous ethanol, used directly in flex-fuel vehicles, was up by 10.7% in order to meet the strong increase in consumption following the gasoline price hike.

According to the ANP, in 2015 hydrous ethanol sales grew by 37.5% over the year before, while gasoline sales fell by 7.3% in the same period.

International sugar prices should continue to move up moderately in response to the improved adjustment between global supply and demand and reduced production in Brazil. However, global stocks are still high, which, together with the strong dollar, will prevent a bigger upturn in dollar prices. Ethanol prices should remain under pressure, favored by robust demand and the increase in gasoline prices. However, prices should begin to fall back as of March/April, with the entry of the new sugarcane harvest, given expectations of a substantial increase in ethanol production to the detriment of sugar output.

Sugar cane production 1991 - 2016 in ´000 tons


10

SU

GA

R

AN

D

ET

HA

NO

L

Sugar and Ethanol – Sugar prices should continue to move up moderately in response to the improved adjustment between global supply and demand. Ethanol prices should remain high, benefiting from robust demand to the detriment of gasoline. However, with the entry of the new harvest in March, prices should begin to fall, reflecting the expected upturn in production this year


Source: BMF BOVESPA Production: BRADESCO

International sugar prices 2000 – 2016

In US$ Cents/ Lb


Hydrous Ethanol Prices 2012 - 2016 in R$ per cubic meters

5,6

10,79,0 8,8

6,3

9,0

8,4

17,9

8,9

13,1

11,3

28,4

14,6

32,1

21,9

29,5

24,9

17,7

15,4

10,7

14,913,96

3,0

9,0

15,0

21,0

27,0

33,0

jan/

00

jan/

01

jan/

02

jan/

03

jan/

04

jan/

05

jan/

06

jan/

07

jan/

08

jan/

09

jan/

10

jan/

11

jan/

12

jan/

13

jan/

14

jan/

15

jan/

16

dez/

16

Domestic sugar and ethanol production

1993 – 2016

Sugar in ´000 tons Ethanol in ´000 liters


11.700

19.380

16.020

27.500

38.168

35.968

37.878

35.56034.613

12.692

13.07810.518

14.640

23.007

25.763

27.595

23.640

28.660 29.215

8.000

15.000

22.000

29.000

36.000

43.000

93/9

4

94/9

5

95/9

6

96/9

7

97/9

8

98/9

9

99/0

0

00/0

1

01/0

2

02/0

3

03/0

4

04/0

5

05/0

6

06/0

7

07/0

8

08/0

9

09/1

0

10/1

1

11/1

2

12/1

3

13/1

4

14/1

5

15/1

6*

SUGAR

ETHANOL

1.062

1.291

1.025

1.146

1.225

1.354

1.150

1.136

1.076

1.316

1.192 1.148

1.353

1.590

1.708

1.842

1.4551.475

920

1.020

1.120

1.220

1.320

1.420

1.520

1.620

1.720

1.820

1.920

jan/

12fe

v/12

mar

/12

abr/1

2m

ai/1

2ju

n/12

jul/1

2ag

o/12

set/1

2ou

t/12

nov/

12de

z/12

jan/

13fe

v/13

mar

/13

abr/1

3m

ai/1

3ju

n/13

jul/1

3ag

o/13

set/1

3ou

t/13

nov/

13de

z/13

jan/

14fe

v/14

mar

/14

abr/1

4m

ai/1

4ju

n/14

jul/1

4ag

o/14

set/1

4ou

t/14

nov/

14de

z/14

jan/

15fe

v/15

mar

/15

abr/1

5m

ai/1

5ju

n/15

jul/1

5ag

o/15

set/1

5ou

t/15

nov/

15de

z/15

jan/

16fe

v/16

mar

/16

abr/1

6m

ai/1

6ju

n/16

jul/1

6ag

o/16

set/1

6ou

t/16

nov/

16


Harvest follow-up

Non-commercial positions and international soybean prices 2009 - 2015

Non-commercial positions and

international corn prices 2009 - 2015

Non-commercial positions and international coffee prices

2009 - 2015




-27264

192117

-24414

260.845

46.808

168.209

-130.404

-20775

1.613

940,8926

-160.000

-120.000

-80.000

-40.000

0

40.000

80.000

120.000

160.000

200.000

240.000

280.000

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

1.800

2.000

Feb-

10

May

-10

Aug

-10

Nov

-10

Feb-

11

May

-11

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Feb-

12

May

-12

Aug

-12

Nov

-12

Feb-

13

May

-13

Aug

-13

Nov

-13

Feb-

14

May

-14

Aug

-14

Nov

-14

Feb-

15

May

-15

Aug

-15

Nov

-15

Feb-

16

Non-commercial positions

Soybean price

16-ju

n-09

-66.274

385.009

80.111

149.456

-113.383

-15328

746,8789,5

545,3

340,5

351,5

-300000

-200000

-100000

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

150

250

350

450

550

650

750

850

Feb-

10

Oct

-10

Jun-

11

Feb-

12

Oct

-12

Jun-

13

Feb-

14

Oct

-14

Jun-

15

Feb-

16

Non-commercial positionsCorn price

46.478

50.224

38.200

-2147

281,7

208,9

168,3124,25

-30.000

-20.000

-10.000

0

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000

70.000

-20

30

80

130

180

230

280

330

380

Feb-

10A

pr-1

0Ju

n-10

Aug

-10

Oct

-10

Dec

-10

Feb-

11A

pr-1

1Ju

n-11

Aug

-11

Oct

-11

Dec

-11

Feb-

12A

pr-1

2Ju

n-12

Aug

-12

Oct

-12

Dec

-12

Feb-

13A

pr-1

3Ju

n-13

Aug

-13

Oct

-13

Dec

-13

Feb-

14A

pr-1

4Ju

n-14

Aug

-14

Oct

-14

Dec

-14

Feb-

15A

pr-1

5Ju

n-15

Aug

-15

Oct

-15

Dec

-15

Feb-

16

Non-commercial positions

Coffee

16-ju

n-09

US$ c / libra em número de contratos


SO

YB

EA

NS

Soybean Complex Of soybean grain produced in Brazil, 43% is exported and 57% is destined to milling. The milling process

results in 72% bran and 18% oil. The remaining 10% are seeds and losses. Of bran produced, 50% is exported and 20% of oil is exported.

Soybean is an exports culture, since the level of production exceeds consumption by around 40%. This means that any growth of domestic production results in exportable surplus.

In the domestic market, soybean is used in the manufacturing of food, such as salami and sausages and nearly 80% is employed to produce animal’s food. Soybean accounts for 25% to 30% of poultry and hog food.

Countries of destination Grain: 75% China, 25% Europe, 10% other Asian countries.

Bran: 70% Europe, 20% Asian countries.

Oil: 50% China, 20% India. Seasonality Summer crop: planting occurs between October and December and harvest is concentrated between

February and May. Regionalization Mid-west: 49%, south 33%, 8% northeast, 6% southeast Ranking Brazil is the world’s second largest player of production with 30.8%, behind the USA with 31.5%, but it is

the largest exporter with 40.7%, followed by USA with 39.3%.

Snapshot of the market

13


Corn is the basis of animal’s food for main types of breeding. In the animal’s food composition, corn accounts for:

64% in poultry raising

65% in hog raising

23% in dairy cattle

Countries of destination Corn exports account for 28% of volume produced. Main markets of destination are 14% Japan, 13%

South Korea, 8.5% Taiwan. Seasonal factors Corn has two crops: Summer crop: planting occurs between October and December and harvest is concentrated between

February and May. It represents 40% of total harvest. It has the following regional distribution: 45% south, 26% southeast, 10% mid-west, 15% northeast.

Winter crop: planting occurs between February and June and harvest is concentrated between July and November. It accounts for 60% of total crop. It has the following regional distribution: 64.3% mid-west, 23% south (only in Paraná), 6% northeast (only in Bahia), 5% southeast.

Ranking Brazil is the world’s third largest corn producer, with 7% market share and the second largest exporter,

with 18% market share.

CO

RN


14


Brazil exports 67% of coffee produced, 90% green coffee and 10% instant coffee.

Coffee cultivation has high workforce costs, which account for nearly 52% of total costs, since most part of harvest is manual.

Countries of destination Green coffee: 19.3% USA, 18.8% Germany, 10% Japan. Instant coffee: 16.3% USA, 13.5% Russia, 6.4% Ukraine. Regionalization Regional distribution of coffea arabica: 71.5% state of Minas Gerais 10.5% state of São Paulo 9.1% state of Espírito Santo 4.3% state of Paraná 2.8% state of Bahia

Regional distribution of Robusta coffee production: 75.6% state of Espírito Santo 12.5% state of Rondônia 6.7% state of Bahia 2.6% state of Minas Gerais Seasonality Coffee flowerage occurs between September and November in Brazil. Harvest starts in May and extends

until September.

Ranking Brazil is the world’s largest coffee player with 37% market share in production and 27% in exports. Other

players, such as Vietnam and Colombia have low domestic consumption, opposite to Brazil, which accounts for 15% of global consumption.

CO

FFE

E


15


Brazilian cattle is estimated in approximately 200 million heads. The commercial livestock for slaughtering is estimated at 40 million heads, i.e., this is the volume of cattle at age and weight ideal for slaughter. The remaining cattle is divided among dairy cows, male calf and unfinished cattle.

Exports accounts for 20% of beef national production. Countries of destination Russia is the main market of destination of Brazilian beef exports, accounting for 22%. Hong Kong

accounts for 18%. Regionalization Cattle slaughter has the following regional distribution: 36.4% mid-west, 20.4% southeast, 20.1% north,

12.3% south and 10.8% northeast.

Ranking Brazil is the world’s second largest beef producer with 16.9% market share, preceded by the USA, which

holds 19.1%.

Brazil is the world’s largest exporter with 21% market share. Seasonality Cattle raising cycle is long – 2.5 years since when male calf is born until slaughter with approximately 15

arrobas.

Cattle breeding system in Brazil is the extensive cattle raising, i.e., bull is raised released in the pasture and eats grass.

The confinement system, where bull is raised with animal’s food in small areas, accounts for only 5% of total slaughter.

Cattle crop occurs in the first half of the year, during rainfall period, when pasture is plentiful. With a greater cattle supply for slaughter, finished cattle prices during such period are lower.

The cattle intercrop occurs in the second half of the year, during drought period, when cold and white frost dry pasture. Bull lose weight, with lower cattle supply for slaughter. However, cattle prices increase during such period, as supply is higher for confined cattle, whose production cost is higher. During intercrop peak (October) there is greater number of confined male cattle slaughter.

Confinements have two shifts: 1st shift: unfinished cattle is stored between May-June and delivered in August-September.

2nd shift: unfinished cattle is stored between August-September and delivered in November-December.

BE

EF


16


Sugarcane Complex Of sugarcane produced in Brazil, 46% is destined to produce sugar and 54% to produce ethanol.

Sugar has the following destination: 70% exports and 30% domestic market. Ethanol has the following

destination: 10% exports and 90% domestic market.

Out of total ethanol produced, 55% is hydrated (used as fuel in flex fuel vehicles) and 45% is used as anhydrous (mixed to gasoline between 20% and 26%).

Sugar is an exports culture, since level of production exceeds consumption by approximately 70%. This means any growth of national production generates exportable surplus.

Countries of destination Raw sugar (73% of production) : 15% China, 8% Bangladesh;

Refined sugar (27% of production): Arabian and African countries;

Ethanol: 60% USA, South Korea 13%.

Seasonality Cane is a continual culture, since period between cane planting and harvest is 18 months, and from

same plant, it is possible to make until six cuts, on average.

Cane harvest period occurs between April and November. During such period, mills operate 24 hours. Between January and March, plants are disassembled for maintenance.

Brazil is the single large global player with crop in the first half of the year. Other countries are: USA, Europe, India, Thailand and Australia start their crop from the second half of the year.

Regionalization 65% southeast, 16.8% mid-west, 10.3% northeast, 7.3% south.

Ranking Brazil is the world’s largest sugar producer, with 22.2% market share. Other players are: India 15%,

European Union 9.2%, China 8.5%, Thailand 6.2%.

Brazil is the largest exporter, with 46% market share in the global market. Other exporters are: Thailand 15%, Australia 5.4%.

World’s largest ethanol producers are: 57% USA and 27% Brazil.

SU

GA

R

AN

D

ET

HA

NO

L

Snapshot of the Market

17


Octavio de Barros - Macroeconomic Research Director Marcelo Cirne de Toledo

DEPEC - BRADESCO does not accept responsibility for any actions/decisions that may be taken based on the information provided in its publications and projections. All the data and opinions contained in these information bulletins is carefully checked and drawn up by fully qualified professionals, but it should not be used, under any hypothesis, as the basis, support, guidance or norm for any document, valuations, judgments or decision taking, whether of a formal or informal nature. Therefore, we emphasize that all the consequences and responsibility for using any data or analysis contained in this publication is assumed exclusively by the user, exempting BRADESCO from all responsibility for any actions resulting from the usage of this material. We all point out that access to this information implies acceptance in full of this term of responsibility and usage. The reproduction of the content in this report (partially or in full) is strictly forbidden except if authorized by BRADESCO or if the sources (the name of the authors, publication and BRADESCO) are strictly mentioned.

Team

Economia Internacional: Fabiana D’Atri / Felipe Wajskop França / Daniela Cunha de Lima /Thomas Henrique Schreurs Pires

Economia Doméstica: Igor Velecico / Andréa Bastos Damico / Ellen Regina Steter / Myriã Tatiany Neves Bast / Ariana Stephanie Zerbinatti

Análise Setorial: Regina Helena Couto Silva / Priscila Pacheco Trigo / Leandro de Oliveira Almeida Pesquisa Proprietária: Fernando Freitas / Leandro Câmara Negrão/ Ana Maria Bonomi Barufi Estagiários: Davi Sacomani Beganskas / Henrique Neves Plens / Mizael Silva Alves / Gabriel Marcondes dos

Santos / Wesley Paixão Bachuga / Carlos Henrique Gomes de Brito / Gustavo Assis Monteiro

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