Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
MONITORING SOCIAL DEVELOPMENTS IN INDONESIA
KECUK SUHARIYANTODirector of Statistical Analysis and DevelopmentBPS-STATISTICS INDONESIAemail: [email protected]
BPS-STATISTICS INDONESIA
INTERNATIONAL FORUM ON MONITORING NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT: ISSUES AND CHALLENGES, Beijing, People’s Republic of China, 27 to 29 September, 2011
INDONESIA PROFILEKEY STATISTICS
Administrative Area 33 provinces, 497 districts
Population 2010 (millions) 237,6
Population Growth Rate 2000-2010 (%) 1,49
Economic Growth Semester 1 2011 (%) 6,5
GDP per capita 2010 (US$) 3005
Unemployment Rate Feb 2011 (%) 6,80
Poverty Rate March 2011 (%) 12,49
Income Inequality (Gini Ratio) 2010 0,38
HDI (new method) 0,60 (ranked 108)
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY IN INDONESIA
STRATEGY
TYPE OF DATA PERIODICITY
TIME LAG
PRO-GROWTH
GDP Quarterly 35 days
Business and Consumer Confidence Indices (BCCI)
Quarterly 35 days
Inflation Monthly 1st day of the following month.
Foreign Trade (Export-Import)
Monthly One month
Manufacturing Production Index
Quarterly 30 days
PRO-JOB Unemployment rate Semester Three months
PRO POOR
Poverty Rate Annually Three months
UNEMPLOYMENT DATA:
Unemployment Rate and Development Target 2004-2014
PROBLEMS:Unemployment Rate: 6,80%66% work in informal sector
49,5% elementary school 30,7% under employed
Source of Data: National Labor Force Survey (Sakernas), conducted every Feb and August, number of sampel 68,000 HH
MTDP: Medium Term Development Plan
Scatter Plot between RGDP and Unemplyment Rate (UR) by Districts 2010
RGDP per capita 2010
Unem
plo
ym
ent
Rate
2010
INDICATION:High RGDP, high URHigh RGDP, low URLow RGDP, high URLow RGDP, low UR
POVERTY DATAMACRO POVERTY DATA(since 1976, released 1July)
MICRO POVERTY DATA(2005, 2008, 2011)
1. Methodology: Concept: Basic Needs
Approach Food Poverty Line (2100 kkal
per cap per day) + Non Food Pov Line
1. Methodology: Qualitatitve Approach
(characteristics of poor hoouseholds)
2. Data Source: National Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas), 68,000 HH
2. Data Source: Census
3. The data show ESTIMATION of number and percentage of POOR PEOPLE (national, province, districts)
3. The data show number of targetting HOUSEHOLD (POOR + NEAR POOR) - by name by address
4. Usage: Basis data for planning and
evaluation of poverty alleviation programs (geograpic)
4. Usage: To implement poverty
alleviation programs: Unconditional cash transfer, Subsidized rice, Health security for the poor, Conditional cash transfer, etc.
MACRO POVERTY DATA:
PROBLEMS:Poverty disparities across region63% of the poor live in rural area
58% of the poor work in agriculture
Many households are clustered around poverty line
Source of Data: National Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas), conducted every March, number of sampel 68,000 HH
Poverty Rate and Development Target 2004-2014
EXAMPLE OF POVERTY MAP
Year 2009Total
Poor Near Poor
Not Poor
Year
2008
Poor 46.71 20.28 33.01 100
Near Poor
22.32 21.53 56.15 100
Not Poor
5.37 7.65 86.98 100
.. Many people easily move out from poverty and move in to poverty (TRANSIENT POVERTY)
Between 2008 and 2009: 53,29% poor people move out from poverty. On the other hand, 27,69% move in to poverty.
10
MICRO POVERTY DATA: Source of Data: Census (2005, 2008, 2011)
Targetting Household (HH)
2005 (PSE 05) 2008 (PPLS 2008)
000 HH % 000 HH %
Very Poor 3.894,3 20,4 2.989,9 17,1
Poor 8.237,0 43,1 6.828,8 39,1
NEAR POOR 6.969,6 36,5 7.665,3 43,8
TOTAL 19.100,9 100,0 17.484,0 100,0
Poverty Alleviation Program in Indonesia
Poverty decreases but income inequality tends to increase ....
TREND OF POVERTY AND GINI RATIO 2004-2011
HDI Indonesia, 1996-2010
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX (HDI) DATA:
• Source of Data: National Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas) and Regional GDP, calculated annualy, districts level
• The usage of HDI: one of the General Allocation Fund allocators
Life Expectancy By Province, 2009
IV
III
III
SCATTER PLOT BETWEEN RGDP AND HDI BY DISTRICTS 2010
Regional GDP
Hu
man
Develo
pm
en
t In
dex
PLANS AND PRIORITIES FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT (1)
ISSUES SOURCE OF DATA/SURVEY
PREVIOUS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
1. POVERTY
a. Macro Data: National Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas)
Before 2011: Annual Survey, number of sample 68,000 HH-280,000 HH
Start 2011: quarterly (75,000 HH per quarter).
Methodology improvement
b. Micro Data: Poverty Census
Methodology: scoring, proxi means test (PMT)
Methodology: Povtar (Poverty Targetting) → Pop Census & Susenas
2. UNEM-PLOYMENT
National Labor Force Survey (Sakernas)
Before 2011: conducted every Feb and August, number of sample 68,000 HH
Start 2011: quarterly (75,000 HH per quarter)
PLANS AND PRIORITIES FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT (2) ISSUES SOURCE OF
DATA/NAME OF SURVEY
PREVIOUS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
3. HDI NEW METHOD
National Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas) & GDP
Methodology: Old Method (Life expectancy at birth, Adult literacy rate, MYS, Consumption per capita, Arithmetic Mean)
Methodology: New Method (Life expectancy at birth, Expected years of schooling, MYS, Consumption per capita, Geometric Mean)
4. SOCIAL PROTECTION INDEX
Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas)
Social Insurance Programs Included: Pensions, health insurance, insurance claimed
Social Assistance Programs Included: Unconditional cash transfer, subsidized rice, health insurance for the poor, poverty card, scholarship
Pilot survey to include more variables
CHALLANGESCHALLANGES1. Poverty and HDI:
a. The results obtained from new methodology will not be comparable with the previous results need to do back-casting
b. The results using new method may change significantly compared to the results obtained from current methodology. It may create long debate need to socialize intensively the new poverty and HDI methods to data users.
2. Social Protection Index:
a. The term of social protection is very broad. It is difficult to obtain the data because there is no centralized source for the required information. The information available from published reports is limited.
b. Need socialization of the concept and definition of SP → all stakeholders have to have the same perception of SP.
THANK YOU Terima Kasih
