Money-Weekly Update

8/20/2019 Money-Weekly Update

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Money Weekly 04 September 2015

Aditya Birla Money LimitedCello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | off W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800

Page No: 1

PageNo.

PageNo.

Corporate News 2 Industrial Production 7

Macro-Economic News 3 Consumer Durables 7 Global Sector Performance 4 Capital Goods 7

Nifty Index Forward Multiples 4 Outlook 8

Global Indices 5 Event Calendar 8

Government Bond 6

HDFC Bank slashes base rate by 35 bps to 9.35%

8522 8533 8565 8519

8300

8002

7655

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

(150000)

(100000)

(50000)

0

50000

100000

150000

24-Jul 31-Jul 07-Aug 14-A ug 21-A ug 28-Aug 04-Sep

(` Mn)

FII (LHS) MF (LHS) Nifty (RHS) Source: NSE

Tech Mahindra2.5%

AmbujaCements

2.4%

Cairn India0.8%

NA

NA NA NA NA

BHEL(12.1%)

M&M(10%)

SBI (9.6%)

Hindalco(9.5%)

Icici Bank(9.1%)

PNB (8.7%)

Power Grid(8.5%)

Axis Bank(7.9%)

Source: NSE

Developed Equity Markets

WTD YTD

U.S. (S&P)* 1,951 (1.9) (5.2)

UK (FTSE)* 6,094 (2.5) (7.2)

Japan (Nikkei 225) 17,792 (7.0) 2.0

Germany (DAX)* 10,130 (1.6) 3.3

France (CAC)* 4,571 (2.2) 7.0

Italy (FTSEMIB)* 21,738 (1.2) 14.3

Spain (IBEX)* 9,885 (4.5) (3.8)

BRIC Equity Markets

India (Sensex) 25,199 (4.5) (8.4)

India (Nifty) 7,655 (4.3) (7.6)

China (Shanghai) 3,160 (2.2) (2.3)

Russia (Micex)* 1,710 (0.6) 22.4

Brazil (Ibov)* 47,366 0.4 (5.3)

Asian Equity Markets

Hong Kong(HSI) 20,841 (3.6) (11.7)

Korea (Kospi) 1,886 (2.7) (1.5)

BSE Sector

WTD YTD

BSE Mid Cap 10,369 (3.6) (0.0)

BSE Small Cap 10,611 (3.5) (4.3)

Auto 16,983 (5.7) (8.8)

Bankex 18,443 (6.4) (14.1)

Capital Goods 15,440 (5.4) (0.0)

Power 1,733 (7.0) (17.2)

Realty 1,241 (2.9) (20.2)

Technology 5,989 (2.0) 2.5

FMCG 7,599 (2.8) (2.2)

Metal 7,117 (3.8) (33.8)

Institutional Activity

WTD MTD YTD

FII (Rs bn) (31.9) (26.4) (29.0)

MF (Rs bn) 28.8 24.0 451.0

Commodities Update

Unit Close WTD YTD

Crude Oil(Brent)** $/Bbl 50 0.5 (12.2)

Gold(OTC)** $/Oz 1,125 (0.8) (5.1)

Silver(OTC)** $/Oz 15 0.7 (6.3)

Copper(LME)** $/MT 5,264 2.3 (17.3)

Aluminum(LME)** $/MT 1,610 1.4 (11.8)

Sugar(LIFFE)** $/MT 351 2.7 (10.4)

ZINC(LME)** $/MT 1,811 0.1 (16.9)

Currency

Close WTD YTD

INR/USD** 66.5 (0.5) (5.2)USD/EURO** 1.1 (0.4) (7.9)USD/JPY** 119.1 2.2 0.6

% Change

% Change

Last Close

% Change

Last Close

Spot market

% Change

** As per Friday 16:30 hrs ISTSource: Bloomberg

Major Event of the Week

Top Nifty Movers Shakers

Index

Nifty & Institutional Flow





Page No: 2

HDFC Bank slashes base rate by 35 bps to 9.35%- Negative mainly for PSU banks as their market share or NIM gets adverselyimpactedIndia's second largest private sector lender, HDFC Bank has reduced its base rate or the minimum lending rate by 35 bps to 9.35%effective from Tuesday. The new base rate will be the lowest lending rate in the banking industry prompting its peers to go f or similaractions. The PSU banks are the most adversely impacted as their profitability is under severe pressure. If they lower their base rates, theirNII and profitability shall be impacted. If they do not lower their rates, they tend to lose their market share and their NII gets adverselyimpacted. Thus, we believe the rising competition is most negative for PSU banks who are struggling to maintain their profitability and tier 1ratios. Negative for PSU banks including SBI, BOI, BOB, PNB, Canara Bank, etc.

Cipla set to buy American business of Hetero Drugs for $550 million – Positive from medium to long term perspective As per media reports, Cipla is set to buy the American business of Hyderabad-based Hetero Drugs as it seeks to expand its fledglingpresence in the world's biggest pharma market. Cipla to acquire Invagen and Camber, Hetero's wholly owned subsidiary, for about $550million, a multiple of the company's total revenues of $150-200 million. Cipla will also get access to a manufacturing facility and approvalsto treat a variety of illnesses — from HIV, hypertension and heart diseases to depression drugs such as acyclovir, amlodipine,escitalopram. Hetero received a boost recently when it secured the approval to make aripiprazole, a blockbuster drug used to treatschizophrenia and bipolar disorder. Positive for CIpla from medium to long term perspective.

Domestic International

India’s manufacturing PMI eases to 52.3 in AugustIndia's manufacturing growth eased slightly in August from thesix-month high recorded a month ago, following softer growth innew orders, a private survey showed. The Nikkei IndiaManufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined to52.3 in August from 52.7 in July, according to data released onTuesday. A reading of over 50 on this survey-based indexindicates expansion. The softer manufacturing data comes aday after the government's official statistics showed thecountry's economic growth slowed to 7 per cent in April-Junequarter from 7.5 per cent in the previous quarter. The coresector growth slumped to a three month low of 1.1 per cent inJuly, indicating a soft start to the second quarter of FY16.

China Manufacturing PMI Slips To Six-Year LowThe manufacturing sector in China contracted at a faster rate in

August, the latest surveyrevealed on Tuesday, as its PMI hit a six-year low reading of 47.3.That's higher than last month's flashestimate of 47.1, but it's down sharply from 47.8 in July. It also

moves further beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separatesexpansion from contraction.

U.K. Service Sector Logs Weakest Growth Since 2013The services Purchasing Managers' Index dropped to 55.6, whichwas the weakest score since May 2013, survey results fromMarket Economics and the Chartered Institute of Procurement &Supply showed. That was in contrast to economists' expectationfor a modest improvement in the reading to 57.7 from 57.4 in July.The growth slowed for second straight month. A PMI score above50 indicates expansion in the sector and the latest readingremained above the long-run survey average of 55.2. Further,activity has now grown for 32 consecutive months, which was thesecond-longest sequence of growth since the survey started inJuly 1996. The economy looks set to grow by 0.5% in the thirdquarter, down from 0.7 % in the three months to June, with theongoing upturn almost entirely dependent on the service sector.

Source: Economic Times, Business Line, Business Standard, Times of India, DNA Money, Mint, Financial Express, Bloomberg

Macro Economy & Other News

Top Corporate News during the week





Page No: 3

Global Sectoral Performance

DevelopedIndexvalue

IndexReturn

TechnologyBasic

MaterialsFinancials Telecom Industrials Utilities

Oil &Gas

HealthCare

ConsumerGoods

% % % % % % % % %

US DOW 16375 -1.61 -0.98 -2.81 -2.52 -1.02 -1.59 ---- -0.7 -3.85 -1.28UK FTSE 6091 -2.51 2.19 -0.91 -1.53 0.66 0.97 0.3 0.85 1.41 0.55GERMANY DAX 10120 -1.73 -0.26 -0.1 0.05 1.46 -1.21 -3.97 ---- -0.04 -1.77FRANCE CAC 4566 -2.34 -0.73 0.14 -0.77 -0.74 0.44 -3.57 3.14 1.06 -0.98JAPAN NIKKEI 17792 -7.02 0.39 -2.29 -2.52 -1.03 -1.05 -5.41 -0.17 -1.86 -0.17

BRIC

BRAZIL BOVESPA 47366 0.45 ---- 9.06 -4.23 -1.14 -0.09 -1.69 -0.34 ---- 2.52RUSSIA MICEX 1710 -0.55 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----INDIA NIFTY 7655 -4.34 2.12 -1.75 -3.73 -0.58 -1.83 -2.1 -0.59 -1.13 -1.83CHINA SANGHAI 3160 -2.23 -2.39 8.67 16.84 11.9 13.45 14.13 3.74 4.62 5.19

Asian

HONG KONG H S I 20841 -3.57 -0.9 -2.46 -1.66 1.54 -1.19 -1.55 -1.12 ---- -1.15KOREA KOSPI 1886 -2.66 1.8 0.21 -1.46 2.17 2.2 -3.08 0.69 -0.38 1.35SINGAPORE STRAITS 2864 -3.12 ---- ---- -2.26 -3.55 2.22 ---- -1.92 ---- -1.79TAIWAN TWSE 8001 -0.23 4.87 3.9 1.17 1.54 6.17 1.98 8.58 6.31 2.97 Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research Note: As per Friday 16:30 hrs IST

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

24.0

26.0

28.0

Mar-07 Jan-08 Nov-08 Sep-09 Jul-10 May-11 Feb-12 Dec-12 Oct-13 Aug-14 Jun-15

1Yr Forw ard P/E (x)

+2 SD

+1 SD

Me an: 15.8

-1 SD

-2 SD

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Mar-07 Jan-08 Nov-08 Sep-09 Jul-10 May-11 Feb-12 Dec-12 Oct-13 Aug-14 Jun-15

1Yr Forw ard P/B (x)

+2 SD

+1 SD

Mean : 2.5

-1 SD

-2 SD

Source: NSE, ABML Research

Nifty Relative Valuation Metrics (1 Year Forward)

Global Equity Indices & Sectoral Performance





Page No: 4

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0.02.04.06.08.0

10.0

12.014.016.018.0

BrazilBOVESPA

RussiaMicex

IndiaNifty*

ChinaSHCOMP

USDowJ

Germany DAX

FranceCAC

UKFTSE

JapanNIKKEI*

Hong KongHis-

KoreaKospi

SingaporeStraits

TaiwanTWSE

PE CY14 PE CY15 EPS %C han ge

PE FY14* PE FY15*

Source: Bloomberg, ABML ResearchNote: As per Friday 16:30 hrs IST

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

BrazilBOVESPA

RussiaMicex

IndiaNifty*

ChinaSHCOMP

USDowJ

Germany DAX

FranceCAC

UKFTSE

JapanNIKKEI*

Hong KongHis-

KoreaKospi

SingaporeStraits

TaiwanTWSE

( % )

P/BV CY14 P/BV CY15 Divide nd Yie ld CY13

PE FY14* PE FY15* Source: Bloomberg, ABML ResearchNote: As per Friday 16:30 hrs IST

5%7%9%

11%13%15%17%19%21%

BrazilBOVESPA

RussiaMicex

IndiaNifty*

ChinaSHCOMP

USDowJ

Germany DAX

FranceCAC

UKFTSE

JapanNIKKEI*

Hong KongHis-

KoreaKospi

SingaporeStraits

TaiwanTWSE

RoE

CY14 CY15 FY14* FY15*

Source: Bloomberg, ABML ResearchNote: As per Friday 16:30 hrs IST

Global Indices Forward P/BV

Global Indices RoE

Global Indices Forward P/E





Page No: 5

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.09.5

10.0

M a y - 0 9

O c t - 0 9

M a r - 1 0

A u g - 1 0

D e c - 1 0

J u n - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

M a r - 1 2

A u g - 1 2

J a n - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

N o v - 1 3

A p r - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

F e b - 1

5

J u l - 1 5

( % )

Government Bond Yields

GIND5YR Index GIND10YR Index

7.717.68

7.71

7.95

7.82

7.79 7.78

7.97

7.6

7.7

7.7

7.8

7.8

7.9

7.9

8.0

8.0

3m 6m 1Yr 5Yr

( % )

Mon thly changed in Govt. Bond Yield Curve

3-Sep-15 3-Aug-15 Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

J a n - 0

9

J u l - 0 9

J a n - 1

0

J u l - 1 0

J a n - 1

1

J u l - 1 1

J a n - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

D e c - 1 2

J u n - 1

3

D e c - 1 3

J u n - 1

4

D e c - 1 4

J u n - 1

5

( % )

10 Year Cor p Bond Spread

10 Yr AAA Corporate Bond Yield 10 Yr G ovt Bond Yield

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

J a n - 0

9

J u l - 0 9

J a n - 1

0

J u l - 1 0

J a n - 1

1

J u l - 1 1

J a n - 1

2

J u l - 1 2

J a n - 1

3

J u l - 1 3

J a n - 1

4

J u l - 1 4

J a n - 1

5

J u l - 1 5

( % )

5 Yr Corp Bond Spre ad

5 Yr AA A Co rpo rat e B ond Y ie ld 5 Yr Go vt B on d Y ie ld

Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research

1.53.55.57.59.5

11.513.5

J a n / 0 9

J u l / 0 9

J a n / 1 0

J u l / 1 0

J a n / 1 1

J u l / 1 1

J a n / 1 2

J u l / 1 2

J a n / 1 3

J u l / 1 3

J a n / 1 4

J u l / 1 4

J a n / 1 5

J u l / 1 5

( % )

Cer tificate of Dep osit Rate s

CD 3month CD 6month CD 12month

3579

111315

F e b / 0 9

A u g / 0 9

M a r / 1 0

S e p / 1 0

A p r / 1 1

O c t / 1 1

A p r / 1 2

N o v / 1 2

M a y / 1 3

D e c / 1 3

J u n / 1 4

J a n / 1 5

J u l / 1 5

( % )

Com mercial Paper Rates

CP 3month CP 6month CP 12 month


CD & CP Rates Movement

G-sec – AAA Corporate Bond — Spread (India)

Government Bond Yield (India)





Page No: 6

1 7 2

1 7 3

1 6 6

1 7 2

1 6 5

1 7 2

1 8 6

1 8 9

1 8 1

1 9 8

1 7 9

1 8 0

1 7 9

050

100150200250

J u n - 1

4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1

5

F e b - 1

5

M a r - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

M a y - 1 5

J u n - 1

5

Index of Indu strial Production

(2)1

(4)

3(4)

48

2

(4)

10

(10)

1 (1)

4

1 0

3

-3

54 3

5

3

3 3 4

(6) (3) -

3 6

(15) (10)

(5) - 5

10 15

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

F e b - 1 5

M a r - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

M a y - 1 5

J u n - 1 5

MoM (%) (LHS) YoY (%) (RHS)

% in Industrial Production


2 1 2

2 2 1

2 1 9 2

4 2

1 9 2

2 0 2

2 0 8 2

4 7

2 5 1

2 6 1

2 5 9

2 5 3

2 4 6

100

200

300

400

J u n - 1

4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1

5

F e b - 1

5

M a r - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

M a y - 1 5

J u n - 1

5

Consumer Durables Index

(19)

4(1)

10

(21)

5 3

19

2 4(1)

(2) (3)-23

-20-15 -11

-35

-15-9-6

-4 -51 -4

16

-45-35-25-15-551525

(25)(20)(15)(10)

(5)-5

10152025

J u n - 1

4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c

t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1

5

F e b - 1

5

M a r - 1

5

A p r - 1

5

M a y - 1

5

J u n - 1

5


% in Consumer Durables Index


1 4 9

1 5 2

1 3 8

1 4 5

1 3 2 1 5

1 1 8 6

1 8 5

1 7 9

1 8 0

1 5 9

1 5 1

1 5 1

0

50

100

150

200

J u n - 1

4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1

5

F e b - 1

5

M a r - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

M a y - 1 5

J u n - 1

5

Consumer Non Durables Index

(1)2

(9)

5

(9)

14

24

(1) (3)

1

(12)(5)

0

2

5

0

1

(4)

76

0

11

24

(0) 1

(6) (3) - 3 6 9 12

(20) (10)

- 10 20 30

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

F e b - 1

5

M a r - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

M a y - 1 5

J u n - 1 5


% in Consumer Non Durables Index


2 7 1

2 6 3

2 2 1 2

6 1

2 3 9

2 5 2

2 7 0

2 7 1

2 5 5 3

3 0

2 5 1

2 3 2 2

6 1

050

100150200250300350

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

F e b - 1 5

M a r - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

M a y - 1 5

J u n - 1 5

Capital Goods Index

19

(3)(16)

18

(8)5 7

0(6)

30

(24) (7)

1223

(3)

(10)

12

(3)

7 612

8

9

7 2

(4)-20-100102030

(30) (15)

- 15 30 45

J u n - 1

4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1

5

F e b - 1

5

M a r - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

M a y - 1 5

J u n - 1

5


% in Capital Goods Index


Capital Goods

Consumer Non Durables

Consumer Durables

Index of Industrial Production





Page No: 7

Indian equity markets witnessed severe carnage during the week with Sensex falling by 4.5% WTD. Fear of moderation in China and

global economic growth, redemption pressure in emerging funds have led to huge FII outflows (~Rs 200 bn in past 1 month) from our

markets. Government has issued circular to exempt FII from MAT but its positive impact was absorbed by FIIs to offload shares. The

banking sector was the major culprit as Bankex declined by 6.4% WTD. The banking stocks were under pressure as i) HDFC Bank slashed

its Base rate by 35 bps to 9.35% which has intensified competition, ii) RBI may soon issue guidelines for banks to calculate base rate by

marginal cost of funding and iii) expectation of interest rate hike by Fed.

Going ahead, we believe the non-farm payroll data will be a very crucial factor which shall set the direction of equity markets. Depending

on this data which shall be announced today, the market may built in expectations related to Fed interest rate hike accordingly. Fed policy

is scheduled on September 16 and 17th. Progress of monsoon and updates on special session of Parliament for passage of GST bill will

be key monitorables. We believe Indian economy is well-placed with falling crude & other commodity prices, low inflation, low twin deficit

and reasonably good GDP growth. Overall, fragile global economy and pressure of FII outflow shall keep Indian markets volatile in short

term. However, we remain bullish on the medium term outlook of Indian stock markets and recommend investors shall accumulate the

quality stocks on this correction. Companies delivering steady PAT growth trajectory shall be most preferred.

Economy Monday 7 th Sep Tues 8 Th sep Wed 9 Th sep Thurs 10 th Sep Friday 11 Th sep

Domestic: Industrial Production YoYJuly ( Prior 3.80%)

Global: UK:

Industrial Production YoYPrior (1.30% , Actual1.50%)

US:

Initial Jobless ClaimsJune (Prior282 K)Continuing ClaimsJune (Prior2257K)

ChinaCPI YOY Aug (exp 1.60%, prior 1.90%)PPI YOY Aug (Exp -5.60%, Prior -.5.40%)

France

Industrial Production YoYJul ( Prior 0.60%)

Germany

CPI MoM Aug ( Exp0.00% , Prior 0.00%)CPI YoY Aug (Exp 0.20%, prior 0.20%)

Source: Bloomberg

Event Calendar

Outlook





Page No: 8

Research Team Vivek Mahajan Hemant Thukral

Head of Research Head – Derivatives Desk022-61802820 022-61802870

[email protected] [email protected]

Fundamental Team Sunny Agrawal FMCG/Cement/Mid Caps 022-61802831 [email protected]

Shreyans Mehta Construction/Real Estate 022-61802829 [email protected]

Jaymin Trivedi Banking & Finance 022-61802833 [email protected]

Naveen Baid IT 022-61325250 [email protected]

Quantitative Team Sudeep Shah Sr.Technical Analyst 022-61802837 [email protected]

Rahil Vora Technical Analyst 022-61802834 [email protected]

Ammolh Paatil Sr. Derivative Analyst 022-61325226 [email protected]

Soni Patnaik Derivative Analyst 022-61802832 [email protected]

Advisory Support Avinash Nahata Head - Advisory Desk 022-61802824 [email protected]

Suresh Gardas Advisory Desk 022-61207619 [email protected]

Salim Hajiani Advisory Desk 022-61207618 [email protected]

Pradeep Parkar Advisory Desk 022-61207625 [email protected] Jaiswal Sr. Exec.-Research Support 022-61802838 [email protected]

ABML research is also accessible in Bloomberg at ABMR

mailto:[email protected]








Page No: 9

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The information, opinion, views contained in this document are as per prevailing conditions and are of the date ofappearing on this material only and are subject to change. No reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever onthe information contained in this document or on its completeness. Neither Aditya Birla Money Limited (ABML) nor anyperson connected with it accepts any liability or loss arising from the use of this document. The views and opinionsexpressed herein by the author in the document are his own and do not reflect the views of Aditya Birla Money Limitedor any of its associate or group companies. The information set out herein may be subject to updating, completion,revision, verification and amendment and such information may change materially. Past performance is no guaranteeand does not indicate or guide to future performance.

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Money-Weekly Update