Iraq Weekly Update

DEPARTMENT

OF

STATE

4 August 2004

PUBLIC VERSIONIraq Status

forNSC

DEPARTMENT

OF

STATE

2

4 August 2004WORKING PAPERS

HighlightsUNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIEDN/P

National Conference Postponed• The IIG, at the request of the United Nations, postponed for two weeks the

National Conference in an effort to secure broader representation from varying Iraqi political groups.

NATO Participation Agreement Reached • NATO announced an agreement on establishing a Training Implementation

Mission in Iraq. NATO will begin to coordinate training for Iraqi security forces including selected Iraqi headquarters personnel inside Iraq and help identify personnel for training outside Iraq.

Powell Visit to Baghdad• Secretary of State Powell traveled to Baghdad this past week visiting with IIG

leaders and US Mission personnel.Iraqi National Guard and Police Service• The Iraqi National Guard (ING) and Iraqi Police Service conducted a number of

successful operations last week including the discovery of large insurgent weapons caches and a sophisticated terrorist safe house.

DEPARTMENT

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STATE

3


Governance - Developments

N/P

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

National Conference:• The IIG, at the request of the United Nations, postponed for two weeks the

National Conference in an effort to secure broader representation from varying Iraqi political groups.

International Cooperation:• NATO announced an agreement on establishing a Training Implementation

Mission in Iraq. The mission will be working closely with the Iraqi authorities to help them develop their security structures, in particular in the Ministry of Defense and military headquarters. NATO will also begin training selected Iraqi headquarters personnel inside Iraq and help identify personnel for training outside Iraq.

• Secretary of State Colin Powell and Saudi leaders discussed the Saudi proposal for a contribution of Islamic troops to Iraq stabilization efforts.

• Prime Minister Allawi concluded his visit with leaders of several Arab countries thisweek. Areas of discussions included security cooperation and assistance.

DEPARTMENT

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Governance - Developments (Cont)

N/P

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

Capacity Building:• The State Department is promoting capacity building and democracy through a

US-based program for Iraqis.− Civil Society and Civic Education (July 24-August 14): Exploring how civic

education provides the the underpinnings for successful participation in a democratic form of government by developing an informed, effective and responsible citizenry. Participants include mayors, governors and civil society leaders.

• USAID continues capacity building activities for local government:− Management training seminars for local government officials are improving

the delivery of essential services.• USAID continues Democracy Dialogue Activities (DDA) across Iraq

– Promotes civic participation and increases Iraqis’ understanding of democratic principles and the political process.

Polling Data:• Latest USG poll (mid July) indicates that the IIG is still popular with the Iraqi

people, that security is the number one priority, and that the IIG’s actions get more positive than negative remarks.

DEPARTMENT

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5


Essential Services - Water and Sanitation

N/P

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

• Rehabilitation of a water treatment plant in a poor area of Baghdad governorate is complete.– Nearly 1 million residents are now benefiting from the potable water.– Before rehabilitation, the plant was operating at 55-60% of capacity of its 3000

m3/day, but now operates at full capacity.

• Japan is funding an $11 million UN project to help restore the marshlands of southern Iraq, which were deliberately drained by Saddam Hussein.– Will support sustainable development through environmentally sound

technologies, providing drinking water, sanitation and pilot wetland restoration for the Marsh Arabs.

– $3.68 million of the Japanese aid package will be used to buy 26 water trucks and 304 water tanks for the al-Muthanna province’s water department.

DEPARTMENT

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• Total number of telephone subscribers in Iraq is now over 1,345,863 (including 523,966 cell phone subscribers) - 61.6% above pre-war levels.

• As of 18 Jul, there were 75,000 internet subscribers in Baghdad.– Pre-war, there was limited service, with 3,000 internet and 8,000 e-mail only

accounts in 2002.

Essential Services - Telecommunications

N/P

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

(As of 18 Jul)

Telephone Subscribers (Fixed and Cell)

0200,000400,000600,000800,000

1,000,0001,200,0001,400,0001,600,000

Mar_

03 (P

re-War) Dec

_03

Jan_0

4

Feb_

04

Mar_04

Apr_0

4

May_04

Jun_0

4

July_

04

Cell PhonesFixed Phones

DEPARTMENT

OF

STATE

7


Essential Services - Food Security

N/P

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

• Chart below shows percentage of estimated requirements for Public Distribution System (PDS) goods from transition on 28 Jun 04 forward.

• The goal of the Ministry of Trade is to provide sufficient ration stocks for the current month plus a three-month buffer.

Public Distribution System Status

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

National

Wheat

Foreign Wheat RicePulses

Ghee/Oil Sugar Tea Milk Salt

Infant F

ormula

Weaning

Cereals

Soap

Detergent Total

Opening Stocks Scheduled Arrivals Under Existing Contracts (OFF)New Procurements MOT New Procurements WFPOFF Unconfirmed Contracts

DEPARTMENT

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STATE

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Essential Services - Food Security (Cont)

N/P

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

• The WFP pipeline indicates possible shortfalls in the following commodities over the course of the next three months. – National wheat (national harvest figures are not yet available), pulses, ghee,

milk, infant formula, soap and detergent.• MOT has issued tenders for commodities such as infant formula, cheese, and

tomato paste into the food ration basket; cheese and tomato paste have been introduced to reduce and offset the individual ration of pulses.

• WFP will stop all food shipments to Iraq in August. The pipeline will be reliant on Ministry of Trade procurement thereafter.

• For the period of Jul through Sep, WFP projects 35,632 metric tons (mt) of Oil for Food commodity arrivals, which could be augmented by 35,000 mt of Indian wheat.

DEPARTMENT

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Essential Services - Health Care

N/P UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

• USAID provided $1 million worth of equipment and supplies for Iraqis to better detect, treat, and control disease nationwide.– 408,000 people will benefit annually.– Equipment and supplies, which replaced those looted after the recent conflict,

include microscopes, freezers and refrigerators, centrifuges, lab sinks, tissue processors, slides, petri dishes, specialized testing agents, and an Amino Acid Analyzer – the first of its kind in Iraq.

• Over 5 million children between the ages of six and 12 have been immunized for Measles, Mumps, and Rubella.

• Over 3 million children under five years of age have been vaccinated since Jun 03.

DEPARTMENT

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STATE


• More than 67,000 Iraqi school children at 90 schools in Ninawa’ Governorate will now have clean drinking water and functioning toilets when they return to school in September 04.– In cooperation with the Ninawa’ Directorate of Education, the project supplied

water tanks, installed water coolers, repainted bathrooms and toilets, installed new sanitary fittings and wash basins, replaced damaged and broken doors, fixed broken windows and tiled floors.

• Over 32,000 secondary school teachers and 3,000 supervisors have been trained as part of effort to upgrade the quality of education.

• Nearly 2,500 schools have been rehabilitated to date and an additional 1,200 are expected to be complete by the end of the year.– In Basrah governorate, USAID is working with the MOE to inventory the

number of schools and assess immediate rehabilitation needs.

Essential Services - Education

N/P UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

DEPARTMENT

OF

STATE

11


Project and Contracting Office (PCO) Developments

N/P

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

• To date, the PCO has issued 201 task orders, out of a total of 250 (83%)

– These task orders cover 2,083 projects nationwide, out of a total 2,300 (90%)

– Nearly 37% of the $18.4 billion supplemental is contractually obligated

– Over 61% of apportioned funds is contractually obligated

• The AIRP is meeting urgent local needs across Iraq:

– Projects cover: water and sanitation, health, education, building, roads, power, telecommunications, and various other

– 196 projects are underway out of 369

– Over 16,300 Iraqis have been directly employed on AIRP projects

– Sadr City projects continue to employ over 3,000 Iraqi workers

DEPARTMENT

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STATE

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Project and Contracting Office (PCO)UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIEDN/P Data as of 27 Jul

6,804 309

2,1614,3346,804

60*47

632180376124118309386

975 1,8961,701

Obligated

$M

596

59639*16 5 4 0 1

1413 23

25184272

Expenditure$M

10,29011,12018,439Total

420451451DEMOCRACY

4,0554,8545,582NON-CONSTRUCTION5,8155,81512,406CONSTRUCTION

10,29011,12018,439TOTAL63*29213Admin Expense (USAID, CPA Successor)100135183Private Sector Development

8428924,247Water Resources and Sanitation418 467500Transportation and Telecommunications560577786Health Care

255270368Roads, Bridges, and Construction238 259259Education, Refugees, Human Rights, Governance

420451451Democracy

714 8251,033Justice, Public Safety, and Civil Society (less Democracy)

1,5981,7011,701Oil Infrastructure

2,4462,5385,465Electricity Sector

2,6362,9763,235Security and Law Enforcement

Committed$M

Apportioned$M

2207 Report

Sector

DEPARTMENT

OF

STATE

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Economy

N/P

• On 21 Jul, estimated crude oil export revenue was approximately $9.2 billion for 2004.

• At the New Iraqi Dinar (NID) auction on July 29, the settlement price was 1,460 dinars per dollar, the same as the previous day and unchanged since June 16.

• The Ministry of Finance offered ID 50 billion (about USD 34 million) in government securities in their second bond auction on Sunday, August 1.

• The ISX retreated during the past two sessions by roughly 16%, however, the overall market’s value has increased by 51% since trading commenced a month ago.

• Nearly 3,000 micro-credit loans totaling over $6 million have been made to Iraqi businesses.– Provides credit to financially viable micro and small businesses.

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

DEPARTMENT

OF

STATE

14


Economy (Cont)

N/P

• Since the Iraq Stock Exchange opened on 24 Jun, trading volume has grown significantly.– The exchange is open two days a week for two hours per day.– There are now 27 listed companies traded and officials are hoping this

number will grow to 120 in the next 45 days.• USAID is assisting the Iraqi Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs (MOLSA) to

develop a vocational training program that will help the Iraqi government address Iraq’s high unemployment rate.

• USAID is currently supporting the development of business skills among Iraq’s small and medium sized businesses.– By Fall 04, USAID will expand outreach and the number of existing Iraqi

Business Centers, which provide training, consulting, and business entrepreneurship services.

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

DEPARTMENT

OF

STATE

15


Mega Watt Hour Production

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000

01-Mar

11-Mar

21-Mar

31-Mar

10-Apr

20-Apr

30-Apr

10-May

20-May

30-May

09-Jun

19-Jun

29-Jun 09-

Jul19

-Jul

June Goal MWHMW Hrs ActualMW Hrs 7 Day Av.

• Summer maintenance program continues resulting in about 465 MW of generation capacity currently offline for scheduled and 603 MW for unscheduled maintenance

Electricity Overview

N/P Data as of 29 Jul 04

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

DEPARTMENT

OF

STATE

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Power Production

Data as of 29 Jul 04

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIEDN/P

Generation By Region

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

10/01/2003

10/15/2003

10/29/2003

11/12/2003

11/26/2003

12/10/2003

12/24/2003

01/07/2004

01/21/2004

02/04/2004

02/18/2004

03/03/2004

03/17/2004

03/31/2004

04/14/2004

04/28/2004

05/12/2004

05/26/2004

06/09/2004

06/23/2004

07/07/2004

07/21/2004

MW

Pea

k

North South Central Off Grid Gen Syria Turkey

• Record Production: 13 Jul reached Peak Generation of 5,063 MW or 109,177 MWH

DEPARTMENT

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STATE

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Hours of Power

Data as of 29 Jul 04

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIEDN/P

DEPARTMENT

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STATE

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Crude Oil Production

N/P

• Weekly Average of 2.303 MBPD Is Below Target of 2.5 MBPD• Long Term Ministry of Oil (MOO) Target (Dec 04): 2.8 - 3.0 MBPD (Pre-War Capacity)• Pre-War Peak: 2.5 MBPD in Mar 03• Post-War Peak: 2.595 MBPD on 16 Apr 04

MOO Goal: 2.5 MBPD

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

4-10 June 11-17 June 18-24 June 25 June - 1 July 2-8 July 9-15 July 16-22 July 23-29 July

Mill

ions

of B

arre

ls P

er D

ay

Production Target

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Monthly Export: Volume & Revenue

N/P

• Current Monthly Average: 1.403 MBPD• Current Monthly Revenue: $1.13B

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

$0.20$0.36 $0.44

$0.73$0.89

$1.21 $1.26 $1.26$1.10

$1.61$1.50

$1.36 $1.28$1.13

0.200

0.322

0.646

0.983

1.149

1.524 1.541 1.537

1.825 1.804

1.380 1.403

1.382

1.148

0.000

0.200

0.400

0.600

0.800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

1.800

2.000

Jun-03 Jul-03 Aug-03 Sep-03 Oct-03 Nov-03 Dec-03 Jan-04 Feb-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 May-04 Jun-04 Jul-04

Mill

ions

of B

arre

ls P

er D

ay

$0.00

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

$1.40

$1.60

$1.80

$2.00

Reve

nue

($Bi

llion

s)

Revenue ($B) Iraqi Export (MBPD)

DEPARTMENT

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0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0


Mill

ions

of L

iters

Per

Day

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Days

of S

tock

s (N

atio

nal)

Production Import Target Stocks

Diesel Production & Imports

• This week’s average production and imports are 110% of goal• National diesel stock is 18 days

N/P

Ministry of Oil (MOO) Goal: 18.0 M Liters

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

DEPARTMENT

OF

STATE

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0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0


Mill

ions

of L

iters

Per

Day

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Days

of S

tock

(Nat

iona

l)


Kerosene Production & Imports

• This week’s average production and imports are 168% of goal• National kerosene stock is 33 days

N/P


UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

DEPARTMENT

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STATE

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0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0


Mill

ions

of L

iters

Per

Day

0

5

10

15

20

25

Days

of S

tock

(Nat

iona

l)


Gasoline / Benzene Production & Imports

• This week’s average production and imports are 111% of goal• National benzene stock is 15 days

N/P


UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

DEPARTMENT

OF

STATE

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0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000


Tons

Per

Day

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Days

of S

tock

(Nat

iona

l)


Liquefied Petroleum Gas Production & Imports

• This week’s average production and imports are 117% of goal• National LPG stock is 35 days

N/P

Ministry of Oil (MOO) Goal: 4,000 Tons

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

DEPARTMENT

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STATE

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Security - Developments

N/P

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

• The Iraqi National Guard (ING) and Iraqi Police Service conducted a number of successful operations last week including the discovery of large insurgent weapons caches and a sophisticated terrorist safe house.

– One haul included MIG-21 engines, 120mm BM-21 rockets, 60mm mortar rounds, land mines, 120mm artillery shells, mortar charges, a truck and 5,000 boxes of 14.55mm rounds.

– Another other haul yielded 10 type-63 107mm rockets, two 120mm mortar rounds, a rocket propelled grenade launcher, two rocket propelled grenades, various fuses and 26 improvised explosive devise switches.

• The Iraqi Intervention Forces’ 4th Battalion deployed to a southern Baghdad base this week for stability and support operations as part of the Iraqi government’s continued effort to provide security to the nation.

– This is one of three Iraqi battalions being employed in the Baghdad area of operations.

• Lead elements of the Iraqi army’s 5th Battalion deployed to a base in Western Baghdad this week for force protection operations at the base as part of the Iraqi government’s continued effort to provide security to the nation.

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Security - Developments (Cont.)

N/P

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

• Chart below shows significant insurgent activities in Iraq to 24 July 2004.

• Includes attacks using improvised explosive devices (IED), vehicle-borne IED, mortars, rocket propelled grenades (RPG), and improvised rockets.

Significant Acts

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

10/18

/2003

11/1/2

003

11/15

/2003

11/29

/2003

12/13

/2003

12/27

/2003

1/10/2

004

1/24/2

004

2/7/20

04

2/21/2

004

3/6/20

04

3/20/2

004

4/3/20

04

4/17/2

004

5/1/20

04

5/15/2

004

5/29/2

004

6/12/2

004

6/26/2

004

7/10/2

004

7/24/2

004

Date

Tota

l SIG

ACTS

Operation Iron Hammer

Announced

Anniversary of Invasion

Fallujah and al-Sadr

Sedition

Transition to Interim

Government

Interim Government Announced

DEPARTMENT

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31 CountriesPotentially Supporting

Iraqi Stability and Humanitarian Relief

1

Countries with forces in Iraq Countries committed to provide forces for Iraq

30 TOTAL ~23K

P

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIEDData as of 30 Jul 04

Stability Contributors - OIF

AlbaniaAustraliaAzerbaijanBulgariaCzech RepDenmarkEl SalvadorEstoniaGeorgiaHungaryItalyJapanKazakhstanKoreaLatvia

LithuaniaMacedoniaMongoliaNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaSingaporeSlovakiaThailandTongaUkraineUK

DEPARTMENT

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Iraq Weekly Status – General Information

• Development, coordination and distribution responsibilities for the Iraq Weekly Status Report have been transferred from the Department of Defense to the Department of State.

• This brief draws from multiple sources. References are often cited in the “Notes Page” section (View Notes Page) of this brief.

• Please forward all inquiries to [email protected]

UNCLASSIFIED

Technology

Iraq Weekly Update