MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS Global COVID-19 Tracker … · 2020. 9. 8. · MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Global COVID-19 Tracker – September 8 by Tom Lake COVID-19 Trends and

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Global COVID-19

Tracker – September 8

by Tom Lake

COVID-19 Trends and Developments

• Brazil’s daily new case total on September 7 of 10,273 was the lowest the country

has recorded since May 17. It also marked the third consecutive day of a decline in

case numbers in Brazil, while the average daily increase across the past week of

34,127 is the lowest 7-day average since July 21.

• France’s average daily increase in cases across the past week (6,884) is the highest

total since April 18 with new infections continuing to spike in major cities. The spike in

cases has not been followed by a delayed increase in fatalities from COVID-19, with

the 7-day average increase not exceeding 21 per day since mid-July.

• The new coronavirus caseload in the United States continues to decline, with the

average increase across the past seven days recorded at 38,576. This is the lowest

average daily increase across a week since June 28. The increase of 24,257 cases

on September 7 is the lowest nationwide since June 16.

• Following data revisions in both countries, Ecuador and Bolivia are now in the top 10

countries for highest number of COVID-19 fatalities per capita, meaning that the

United States and Mexico out of the list of most severely hit countries worldwide with

regards to fatalities as a proportion of the national population.

Chart 1. COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)

Source: JHU, MNI. As of 0600BST September 8. N.b. Each dot represents a single day’s figures, data for past three months

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

07-Jun 07-Jul 07-Aug 07-Sep

Global

Total Fatalities (LHS) Total Cases (LHS)

Fatalities, D-t-D % chg (RHS) Cases, D-t-D % chg (RHS)

Table 1. COVID-19 Data Table

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b As of 1200BST September 8. Recovery numbers for Belgium, Hong Kong, Spain, Sweden and the UK

not available.

Country Confirmed

Cases

New Cases Last

Week

Recovered Deceased Fatalities in Past Week

Mortality Rate (per

100 recorded

cases)

Rate of Increase in Cases

(7-day average)

Global 27,332,433 1,847,666 18,145,299 892,443 35,428 3.3 1.00%

Argentina 488,007 70,272 349,132 10,129 1,210 2.1 2.20%

Australia 26,373 554 22,601 770 107 2.9 0.29%

Belgium 88,769 3,533 N/A 9,909 12 11.2 0.63%

Brazil 4,147,794 239,522 3,522,155 126,960 4,364 3.1 0.81%

Canada 134,295 3,377 118,192 9,196 17 6.8 0.36%

Chile 424,274 12,548 394,399 11,652 331 2.7 0.44%

China 90,078 164 84,873 4,732 8 5.3 0.03%

Colombia 666,521 51,427 518,229 21,412 1,362 3.2 1.11%

France 367,174 48,188 88,088 30,732 66 8.4 2.13%

Germany 253,626 8,824 225,209 9,331 24 3.7 0.51%

Hong Kong 4,889 79 N/A 98 8 2.0 0.23%

India 4,280,422 589,256 3,250,429 72,775 6,442 1.7 2.14%

Iran 388,810 13,598 335,572 22,410 738 5.8 0.52%

Italy 278,784 9,570 210,015 35,553 62 12.8 0.52%

Japan 72,213 3,817 61,730 1,377 64 1.9 0.76%

Mexico 637,509 37,949 524,669 67,781 2,540 10.6 0.85%

Peru 689,977 42,811 506,422 29,838 894 4.3 0.95%

Russia 1,027,334 34,932 840,997 17,818 568 1.7 0.50%

Saudi Arabia 321,456 5,684 296,737 4,107 178 1.3 0.25%

Singapore 57,044 232 56,333 27 0 0.05 0.06%

South Africa 639,362 12,321 563,891 15,004 741 2.3 0.29%

South Korea 21,432 1,250 16,297 341 15 1.6 0.79%

Spain 525,549 62,691 N/A 29,516 364 5.6 1.86%

Sweden 85,558 1,179 N/A 5,837 24 6.8 0.20%

UK 350,100 14,227 N/A 41,554 50 11.9 0.63%

US 6,300,622 270,035 2,315,995 189,208 4,544 3.0 0.61%

Chart Pack: COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)

The chart pack below records the number of COVID-19 cases and fatalities resulting from

COVID-19 recorded in select countries over the past three months in each respective

country. The charts also display the rate of increase in recorded cases and fatalities in each

country. Legend below can be used for all national charts.

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000


Argentina

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000


Australia

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000


Belgium

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000


Brazil

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

0.9%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000


Canada

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000


Chile

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

0.35%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000


China

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000


Colombia

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000


France

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000


Germany

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000


Hong Kong

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000


India

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000


Iran

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000


Italy

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000


Japan

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000


Mexico

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000


Peru

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000


Russia

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Saudi Arabia

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000


Singapore

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000


South Africa

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000


South Korea

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000


Spain

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000


Sweden

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b Global legend applies to all charts. All data correct as of 0600BST September 8, and represents full-

day data submissions, rather than intra-day figures. Each dot indicates the data from a single day.

Chart 2. Countries with 10 Highest Number Of New Cases In Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 7. Countries in descending order of new cases: India, Spain, US, France, Brazil,

Argentina, Peru, Russia, Iraq, Mexico.

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

0.9%

1.0%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000


UK

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000


US

Chart 3. Countries with 10 Highest Number of New Cases Per Capita in Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 7. Countries in descending order of new cases per capita: Spain, Bahrain, Israel, Costa

Rica, France, Belize, Argentina, Peru, Kuwait, Montenegro. Countries with population below 100k excluded.

Chart 4. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Total Recorded Cases Per 100 Head of

State’s Population

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data for Sep 7. Countries in descending order of new cases per capita: Qatar, Bahrain, Panama, Chile,

Kuwait, Peru, Brazil, US, Oman, Maldives. Countries with population below 100k excluded.

Chart 5. Countries with 10 Highest Number Of Fatalities In Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 7. Countries in descending order of fatalities in past 24 hours: Ecuador, Bolivia, India,

Brazil, Argentina, US, Mexico, Peru, Iran, South Africa.

Chart 6. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Fatalities Per Capita in Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 7. Countries in descending order of fatalities per capita: Ecuador, Bolivia, Suriname,

Costa Rica, Argentina, Bahamas, Peru, Chile, Panama, North Macedonia. Countries with population below 100k excluded.

Chart 7. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Total Recorded Fatalities Per 100 Head

of State’s Population

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from September 7. Countries in descending order of fatalities per capita: Peru, Belgium, Spain,

UK, Chile, Bolivia, Ecuador, Brazil, Italy, Sweden. Countries with population below 100k excluded.

Documents

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS Global COVID-19 Tracker … · 2020. 9. 8. · MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Global COVID-19 Tracker – September 8 by Tom Lake COVID-19 Trends and