MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS Global COVID-19 Tracker … · 2020. 9. 9. · MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Global COVID-19 Tracker – September 9 by Tom Lake COVID-19 Trends and

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Global COVID-19

Tracker – September 9

by Tom Lake

COVID-19 Trends and Developments

• Argentina’s COVID-19 caseload increased by a record 12,027 on September 9. This

pushed the country’s total number of COVID-19 cases registered so far above the

half million mark. The virus has now spread from the capital Buenos Aires to other

more rural provinces where the health systems are less able to cope with a

widespread outbreak of the disease. Argentina also recorded the highest number of

COVID-19 fatalities per capita worldwide on September 8.

• The UK recorded its third consecutive day of new coronavirus cases in excess of

2,000. This is the first such occurence of three 2k+ cases in a day since May 22. The

rise in cases has sparked the UK government to ban meetings of more than six

people in social settings from September 14 onwards, despite an ongoing drive to

encourage individuals to return to their place of work and support the economy.

• The average number of COVID-19 fatalities per day across the past week in Mexico

stands at its lowest level since June 3, but in the context of deaths from the disease

in Mexico on September 8 remaining in the top 10 most severely hit countries

worldwide. The average number of new cases registered per day has remained

relatively steady around 5,000-5,500 per day since mid-August.

Chart 1. COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)

Source: JHU, MNI. As of 0600BST September 9. N.b. Each dot represents a single day’s figures, data for past three months

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

08-Jun 08-Jul 08-Aug 08-Sep

Global

Total Fatalities (LHS) Total Cases (LHS)

Fatalities, D-t-D % chg (RHS) Cases, D-t-D % chg (RHS)

Table 1. COVID-19 Data Table

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b Data correct as of 1030BST September 9. Recovery numbers for Belgium, Hong Kong, Spain, Sweden

and the UK not available.

Country Confirmed

Cases

New Cases Last

Week

Recovered Deceased Fatalities in Past Week

Mortality Rate (per

100 recorded

cases)

Rate of Increase in Cases

(7-day average)

Global 27,570,742 1,821,100 18,541,133 897,383 34,355 3.3 0.96%

Argentina 500,034 71,795 366,590 10,405 1,287 2.1 2.19%

Australia 26,465 542 22,861 781 103 3.0 0.26%

Belgium 89,141 3,654 N/A 9,912 14 11.1 0.62%

Brazil 4,162,073 211,142 3,572,421 127,464 3,684 3.1 0.67%

Canada 135,757 4,335 119,420 9,203 21 6.8 0.48%

Chile 425,541 12,396 397,730 11,682 338 2.7 0.43%

China 90,087 154 84,932 4,733 6 5.3 0.02%

Colombia 671,533 47,507 541,186 21,611 1,266 3.2 0.98%

France 373,718 49,750 88,876 30,770 78 8.2 2.06%

Germany 254,957 8,942 228,432 9,336 14 3.7 0.50%

Hong Kong 4,895 73 N/A 99 6 2.0 0.22%

India 4,370,128 600,605 3,398,844 73,890 6,514 1.7 2.12%

Iran 391,112 14,218 337,414 22,542 745 5.8 0.54%

Italy 280,153 9,964 210,801 35,563 66 12.7 0.52%

Japan 72,724 3,701 62,936 1,398 71 1.9 0.73%

Mexico 642,860 36,824 535,141 68,484 2,668 10.7 0.85%

Peru 691,575 39,538 529,751 29,976 908 4.3 0.86%

Russia 1,032,354 35,282 854,069 17,939 574 1.7 0.50%

Saudi Arabia 322,237 5,567 298,246 4,137 181 1.3 0.25%

Singapore 57,091 239 56,461 27 0 0.05 0.07%

South Africa 640,441 12,182 567,729 15,086 697 2.4 0.26%

South Korea 21,588 1,139 47,023 344 15 1.6 0.75%

Spain 534,513 63,540 N/A 29,594 400 5.5 1.84%

Sweden 85,707 1,186 N/A 5,838 18 6.8 0.23%

UK 352,560 15,392 N/A 41,586 72 11.8 0.67%

US 6,327,009 253,169 2,359,111 189,653 3,933 3.0 0.57%

Chart Pack: COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)

The chart pack below records the number of COVID-19 cases and fatalities resulting from

COVID-19 recorded in select countries over the past three months in each respective

country. The charts also display the rate of increase in recorded cases and fatalities in each

country. Legend below can be used for all national charts.

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000


Argentina

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000


Australia

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000


Belgium

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000


Brazil

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000


Canada

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000


Chile

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

0.35%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000


China

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000


Colombia

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000


France

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000


Germany

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000


Hong Kong

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000


India

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000


Iran

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000


Italy

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000


Japan

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000


Mexico

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000


Peru

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000


Russia

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Saudi Arabia

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000


Singapore

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000


South Africa

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000


South Korea

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000


Spain

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000


Sweden

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b Global legend applies to all charts. All data correct as of 0600BST September 9, and represents full-

day data submissions, rather than intra-day figures. Each dot indicates the data from a single day.

Chart 2. Countries with 10 Highest Number Of New Cases In Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 8. Countries in descending order of new cases: India, US, Brazil, Argentina, Spain,

France, Mexico, Russia, Iraq, Israel.

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

0.9%

1.0%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000


UK

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000


US

Chart 3. Countries with 10 Highest Number of New Cases Per Capita in Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 8. Countries in descending order of new cases per capita: Israel, Bahrain, Montenegro,

Argentina, Costa Rica, Kuwait, Panama, Spain, Maldives, Belize. Countries with population below 100k excluded.

Chart 4. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Total Recorded Cases Per 100 Head of

State’s Population

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data for Sep 8. Countries in descending order of new cases per capita: Qatar, Bahrain, Panama, Chile,

Kuwait, Peru, Brazil, US, Oman, Maldives. Countries with population below 100k excluded.

Chart 5. Countries with 10 Highest Number Of Fatalities In Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 8. Countries in descending order of fatalities in past 24 hours: India, Mexico, Brazil, US,

Argentina, Peru, Iran, Russia, Indonesia, South Africa.

Chart 6. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Fatalities Per Capita in Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 8. Countries in descending order of fatalities per capita: Argentina, Mexico, Montenegro,

Peru, Costa Rica, North Macedonia, Bolivia, Moldova, Ecuador, Libya. Countries with population below 100k excluded.

Chart 7. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Total Recorded Fatalities Per 100 Head

of State’s Population

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from September 8. Countries in descending order of fatalities per capita: Peru, Belgium, Spain,

UK, Chile, Bolivia, Ecuador, Brazil, Italy, Sweden. Countries with population below 100k excluded.

Documents

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS Global COVID-19 Tracker … · 2020. 9. 9. · MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Global COVID-19 Tracker – September 9 by Tom Lake COVID-19 Trends and