MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS Global COVID-19 Tracker October 6 · 06-10-2020 · • For the first time the seven-day average increase in new cases across the globe exceeded 300,000

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Global COVID-19

Tracker – October 6

by Tom Lake

COVID-19 Trends and Developments

• A change in methodology saw Mexico register a record number of COVID-19

fatalities and new cases in a 24-hour period on October 5, with 2,789 deaths and

28,115 new cases added to the total. The Ministry of Health has said that some of

the additions date back to cases or fatalities recorded in June. Mexico has struggled

to effectively record many outbreaks of the virus due to limited testing facilities, with

the country’s mortality rate standing at 10.4, with 81,877 fatalities from COVID-19

recorded from 789,780 confirmed cases.

• Across the week up to October 5, France recorded an average of 82 fatalities per

day due to COVID-19, the highest seven-day average since May 23. The sustained

increase in fatalities comes as cases continue to mount amid a second wave, with

the seven-day average increase in cases (12,330 per day on October 5) the highest

on record.

• For the first time the seven-day average increase in new cases across the globe

exceeded 300,000 per day on October 5, with an average of 302,415 new cases

reported per day globally over the past week. It should be noted, though that this

figure is likely to be inflated somewhat by data revisions in hard-hit countries like

Mexico and the UK that has seen total caseloads spike.

Chart 1. COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)

Source: JHU, MNI. As of 0600BST October 6. N.b. Each dot represents a single day’s figures, data for past three months

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

05-Jul 05-Aug 05-Sep 05-Oct

Global

Total Fatalities (LHS) Total Cases (LHS)

Fatalities, D-t-D % chg (RHS) Cases, D-t-D % chg (RHS)

Table 1. COVID-19 Data Table

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b Data correct as of 1035BST October 6. Recovery numbers for Belgium, Hong Kong, Spain, Sweden

and the UK not available. No case or fatality data released in Sweden for Oct 5.

Country Confirmed

Cases

New Cases in Past 24

Hrs

Recovered Deceased Fatalities in Past 24 Hrs

Mortality Rate (per

100 recorded

cases)

Rate of Increase in Cases

(7-day average)

Global 35,475,879 325,411 24,765,669 1,043,945 7,004 2.9 0.88%

Argentina 809,728 11,242 649,017 21,468 450 2.7 1.63%

Australia 27,173 25 24,915 895 1 3.3 0.06%

Belgium 132,203 1,968 N/A 10,078 14 7.6 1.97%

Brazil 4,927,235 11,946 4,397,882 146,675 323 3.0 0.54%

Canada 171,384 2,883 144,653 9,560 27 5.6 1.24%

Chile 471,746 1,567 443,453 13,037 58 2.8 0.37%

China 90,652 23 85,541 4,739 0 5.2 0.02%

Colombia 862,158 7,106 766,300 26,844 132 3.1 0.75%

France 664,289 34,780 100,873 32,317 146 4.9 2.02%

Germany 304,673 3,100 265,624 9,554 21 3.1 0.78%

Hong Kong 5,124 11 N/A 105 0 2.0 0.14%

India 6,685,082 61,267 5,662,490 103,569 884 1.5 1.21%

Iran 475,674 3,902 392,293 27,192 235 5.7 0.80%

Italy 327,586 2,257 232,681 36,002 16 11.0 0.73%

Japan 86,027 281 78,071 1,602 4 1.9 0.60%

Mexico 789,780 28,115 670,034 81,877 2,789 10.4 1.06%

Peru 828,169 6,605 712,888 32,742 133 4.0 0.40%

Russia 1,219,796 10,757 984,767 21,375 115 1.8 0.79%

Saudi Arabia 336,766 379 322,055 4,898 23 1.5 0.13%

Singapore 57,819 7 57,597 27 0 0.05 0.03%

South Africa 682,215 926 615,684 17,016 40 2.5 0.22%

South Korea 24,239 75 22,083 422 0 1.7 0.32%

Spain 813,412 23,480 N/A 32,225 139 4.0 1.21%

Sweden 94,283 0 N/A 5,895 0 6.3 0.52%

UK 515,571 12,593 N/A 42,369 19 8.2 2.33%

US 7,457,402 39,557 2,935,142 210,181 460 2.8 0.60%

Chart Pack: COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)

The chart pack below records the number of COVID-19 cases and fatalities resulting from

COVID-19 recorded in select countries over the past three months in each respective

country. The charts also display the rate of increase in recorded cases and fatalities in each

country. Le gend below can be used for all national charts.

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000


Argentina

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000


Australia

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000


Belgium

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000


Brazil

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000


Canada

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000


Chile

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

0.35%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000


China

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000


Colombia

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000


France

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Germany

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000


Hong Kong

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000


India

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000


Iran

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

0.9%

1.0%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Italy

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000


Japan

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000


Mexico

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000


Peru

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000


Russia

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000


Saudi Arabia

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000


Singapore

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000


South Africa

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000


South Korea

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000


Spain

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000


Sweden

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b Global legend applies to all charts. All data correct as of 0600BST October 6, and represents full-day

data submissions, rather than intra-day figures. Each dot indicates the data from a single day.

Chart 2. Countries with 10 Highest Number Of New Cases In Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, MapChart.net, MNI. N.b. Data from Oct 5. Countries in descending order of new cases: India, US, France,

Mexico, Spain, UK, Brazil, Argentina, Russia, Colombia

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000


UK

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000


US

Chart 3. Countries with 10 Highest Number of New Cases Per Capita in Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, Mapchart.net, MNI. N.b. Data from Oct 5. Countries in descending order of new cases per capita: Israel, France,

Spain, Costa Rica, Montenegro, Luxembourg, Czech Republic, Bahrain, Argentina, Mexico. Countries with population below

100k excluded.

Chart 4. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Total Recorded Cases Per 100 Head of

Population

Source: JHU, Mapchart.net, MNI. N.b. Data for Oct 5. Countries in descending order of new cases per capita: Qatar, Bahrain,

Israel, Panama, Kuwait, Peru, Chile, Brazil, US, Oman. Countries with population below 100k excluded.

Chart 5. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Fatalities in Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, Mapchart.net, MNI. N.b. Data from Oct 5. Countries in descending order of fatalities in past 24 hours: Mexico,

India, US, Argentina, Brazil, Iran, France, Spain, Peru, Colombia.

Chart 6. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Fatalities Per Capita in Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, Mapchart.net, MNI. N.b. Data from Oct 5. Countries in descending order of fatalities per capita: Armenia, Mexico,

Argentina, Costa Rica, Cape Verde, Montenegro, Peru, Guyana, Luxembourg, Chile. Countries with population below 100k

excluded.

Chart 7. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Total Recorded Fatalities Per 100 Head

of State’s Population

Source: JHU, Mapchart.net, MNI. N.b. Data from Oct 5. Countries in descending order of fatalities per capita: Peru, Belgium,

Bolivia, Brazil, Spain, Chile, Ecuador, Mexico, US, UK. Countries with population below 100k excluded.

Documents

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS Global COVID-19 Tracker October 6 · 06-10-2020 · • For the first time the seven-day average increase in new cases across the globe exceeded 300,000