MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF ... - MIGAS …ca}05.Ir.YunusSaefulhak,M.M.,M.T... · Equipment (SKPP) 2. Certificate of Installation (SKPI) 3. Approval of WPS/PQR and

Kementerian ESDM Republik Indonesia 1

MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF THE REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA

DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF NEW, RENEWABLE ENERGY AND ENERGY CONSERVATION

By:Yunus Saefulhak

Director of Geothermal, DGNREEC, MEMR-RI

Jakarta, 25 Oktober 2016

International Workshop on Geothermal Business and Technology 2016

University of Indonesia


OUTLINE

I. An Overview of Geothermal Development 3

II. Challenges in Geothermal Business 9


I. AN OVERVIEW OF GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT

OPPORTUNITY AND RECENT CONDITION


2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

PLT Arus Laut

PLT Bayu

PLTS

PLTD BBN

PLT Bioenergi

PLTA dan PLTMH

PLTP

KEN

45 GW

169 GW

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

Geothermal 1.438,5 1.653,5 1.908,5 2.133,5 2.493,5 3.109,5 7.241,5 9.300 13.423 17.546

Hydro and Micro Hydro 5.024 5.119 5.236 5.491 7.008 7.889 20.960 25.844 35.611 45.379

Bioenergy 1.740 1.886 2.093 2.359 2.674 3.024 5.532 9.651 17.887 26.123

Solar 79 229 429 679 979 1.379 6.379 14.103 29.551 45.000

Wind 7 57 107 207 307 507 1.807 7.167 17.887 28.607

Other NRE 372 1.860 1.860 1.860 1.861 1.863 3.128 3.779 5.081 6.383

Total 8.660 10.804 11.728 12.939 15.807 18.475 45.044 69.843 119.440 169.038

Satuan: MW

31%

20%25%

24%23%

25%30%

22%5%

46%31%

18%

194

MTOE

412

MTOE

1.031

MTOE

NRE

Oil

Gas

Coal

2015 2025 2050

Total of

Power Plant

51 GW 135 GW 444 GW

NRE Power

Plant

9,6 GW

(19%)

45 GW

(34%)

169 GW

(38%)

Primary Energy Mix According to GR No. 79/2014 on National Energy Policy


GPP SIBAYAK: 12 MW

GPP GUNUNG SALAK: 377 MW

GPP WAYANG WINDU: 227 MW

GPP KAMOJANG: 235 MW

GPP DARAJAT: 270 MW

GPP DIENG: 60 MW

GPP LAHENDONG: 100 MW

Source: Geological Agency MEMR (2015)

GPP ULUBELU: 165 MW

GPP ULUMBU: 10 MW

GPP MATALOKO: 2,5 MW

GPP PATUHA: 55 MW

No Island Num of Location

Energy Potential (Mwe)

TotalInstalledCapacity

Resources Reserve

Speculative Hypothetic Possible Probable Proven1 Sumatera 97 3,191 2,334 6,992 15 380 12,912 177

2 Jawa 73 1,560 1,739 4,023 658 1,815 9,795 1,224

3 Bali 6 70 22 262 - - 354 0

4 Nusa Tenggara 27 225 409 917 - 15 1.566 12.5

5 Kalimantan 14 152.5 30 - - - 182,5 0

6 Sulawesi 77 1,221 318 1,441 108 120 3.208 100

7 Maluku and South Maluku 33 560 91 800 - - 1.451 0

8 Papua 3 75 - - - - 75 0

Total 330 7,054.5 4,943 14,435 781 2,330 29,543,5 1,513.511.997,5 17.546

29.543,5

INDONESIA GEOTHERMAL POTENCY AND INSTALLED CAPACITY


GEOTHERMAL WORKING AREA STATUS

69 GWA(7.241,5 MW)

OPERATION: 9 GWA (1.513,5 MW)

Rencana Pengembangan (778 MW) 1. Sibayak (12 MW)2. Ulubelu (165 MW)3. Cibeureum-Parabakti (377 MW)4. Pangalengan (282 MW)5. Kamojang-Darajat (505 MW)6. Dieng (60 MW)7. Lahendong-Tompaso (80 MW)8. Ulumbu (10 MW)9. Mataloko (2,5 MW)

PRODUCTION: 9 GWA (1.513,5 MW)Development Plans

(778 MW)

EXPLORATION: 15 GWA (1.810 MW)

EXPLOITATION: 8 GWA(1.190 MW)

1. Sibual-Buali (330 MW)2. Sungai Penuh (145 MW)3. Lumut Balai (285 MW)4. Hululais (340 MW)5. Karaha Cakrabuana (50 MW)6. Cibuni (10 MW)7. Tabanan (10 MW)

8. Tulehu (20 MW)

EXPLORATION & EXLOPITATION:

23 GWA ( 3.000 MW)

READY TO ASSIGNMENT / TENDER:

34 GWA (1.640 MW)

PPA/PJBL SIGNATURE PROCESS: Jailolo (40 MW)

LICENSEE PROCESS: 3 GWA (330 MW)

1. Seulawah Agam (165 MW)2. Gn. Lawu (110 MW)3. Way Ratai (55 MW)

PPA/PJBL SIGNATURE14 WKP (1.770 MW)

1. Muaralaboh (220 MW)2. Gn. Rajabasa (220 MW)3. Rantau Dedap (220 MW)4. Blawan-Ijen (110 MW)5. Gn.Ungaran (55 MW)6. Telaga Ngebel (165 MW)7. Baturaden (180 MW)8. Guci (55 MW)9. Kaldera Danau Banten (110 MW) 10. Cisolok Sukarame (45 MW)11. Tangkuban Perahu (110 MW) 12. Sorik Marapi (240 MW)13. Jaboi (10 MW)14. Sokoria (30 MW)


World Geothermal Energy Utilization by Country

NO COUNTRY POTENCY (Mwe) INSTALLED CAPACITY (MW) RATIO

1 USA 30,000 25.15% 3450 29.66% 11.50%

2 PHILLIPINES 4,000 3.35% 1870 16.07% 46.75%

3 INDONESIA 29,543.5 24.77% 1513.5 13.01% 5.12%

4 NEW ZEALAND 3,650 3.06% 1005 8.64% 27.53%

5 MEXICO 4,600 3.86% 1058 9.09% 23.00%

6 ITALY 3,270 2.74% 916 7.87% 28.01%

7 ICELAND 5,800 4.86% 665 5.72% 11.47%

8 KENYA 15,000 12.58% 636 5.47% 4.24%

9 JAPAN 23,400 19.62% 520 4.47% 2.22%

JUMLAH 119,263.5 100 % 11,633.5 100 % 9.75%

CATATAN:

WORLD ONLY UTILIZE ABOUT 9,75% (11,6 GW) FROM TOTAL GEOTHERMAL POTENCY (119,3 GW);

INDONESIA IN A SECOND POSITION ON GEOTHERMAL SOURCE POTENTIAL OR ABOUT 24,77 %;

INDONESIA IN A THIRD PLACE ON GEOTHERMAL UTILIZATION (12,95%);

PHILLIPINES BECOME WORLD OPTIMIZED GEOTHERMAL POTENTIAL (46,75 %) AND MANY OF GPP WITHIN THE NATURAL PRESERVE AREA;

JAPAN USING MORE GEOTHERMAL ENERGY FOR DIRECT USES.

Modified from: Bertani, WGC 2015


Geothermal Potential

Geothermal Working Area

Regulation

69 GWA Existing : 19 GWA

New : 50 GWA

29,5 GWeResources 11.997,5 MW

Reserves 17.546 MW

Geological Agency MEMR, Updated December 2015

Law No. 21/2014

GR No. 59/2007 jo. PP 75/2015

GR No. 28/2016

GR No. 9/2012

GR No. 79/2014

MEMR Regulation, Related Minstry of

Finace & Related Ministry of Environment

and Forestry Regulation

Installed Capacity

1.513,5 MWe 11 GPP on 9 GWA

8.63 % utilization from geothermal source

Main Obstacles

Land Overlapping

Pricing

Funding

Licensing

Social Matters Issues

Electric Production9,964 GWh Electrical realization of 2015

104% achievement from target of 9,594

GWh

September 2016 realization for 7,888

GWh (81%) from target 9,798 GWH

KONDISI SAAT INICurrent Condition

PNBPInvestation

USD 876,5 Millions Investment Realization on 2015

93,5 % achievement from USD 937,2 Million

Target

Realization per September 2016 USD 834

Million (86%) from USD 960 Million

IDR 886 Billion PNBP realization in 2015

153 % achievement from target IDR 580

Billion

per September 2016 Realization 504,58

Billion Rp (80 % from target of 630 Billion Rp )


II. CHALLENGES IN GEOTHERMAL BUSINESS

TARGET, RISK, OBSTACLES and BREAKTROUGHS


0 37110

7.560 35

215 255 225 360

616

450

858

650

1,175

999

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

-

1,000.0

2,000.0

3,000.0

4,000.0

5,000.0

6,000.0

7,000.0

8,000.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Ad

dit

ion

al C

apac

ity

(MW

e)

Cap

acit

y (M

We)

Indonesia become World No.2 surpassingPhilippines

Indonesia become World No.1 Surpassing

United States

Installed Capacity Upadated

Sept. 2016: 1,513.5 MW (Additional Capacity from GPP Ulubelu Unit 3 on July 26th , 2016 for 55 MW and GPP Lahendong Unit 5 on Sept 16th, 2016 for 20 MW)Additional COD Plans for 2016: GPP Sarulla Unit 1 for 110 MW GPP Karaha Unit 1 for 30 MW

*Assumption: Philippines (1.870 MW) and US (3.450 MW) not performing any capacity increasment

TARGET AND MILESTONE OF GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT

Installed Capacity Target Capacity Additional Capacity


Exploration Cost = 8-9% Total Project Cost

Development Cost Structure for 50 110 MW

Investment Estimation US$ 3.0 4.0 M/MW

Exploration Survey 1 - 2%

Exploration Wells

7%

Development Wells

27 - 28%

Production Facilities and SAGS12 - 13%

GPP53 - 55%

Exploration Cost Estimation (3 Wells)

NO ActivityEstimated Cost

(US$) Million

1. Geology, Geochemical and

Geophysics Survey

(Well Pad Determination)

7

2. AMDAL, SIPPA, IPPKH 0,1

3. Land Acquisition 1

4. Well Pad + Road Entrance

(Assumption : 6 km)

5

5. Well Drilling 21

TOTAL 34,1

Source: Modified from PGE, 2013

INVESTMENT COST ESTIMATION


40-50

70-80

80-90100

Drilling Success Ratio

GEOTHERMAL INVESTMENT RISK

Development Risk

Recognisance Survey

of Manifestation AreaDetailed Survey

(Detailed Spacing)

Gradient Thermal

Drilling Exploration Drilling

Wells

Well Status

Source: S.Sudarman


Geothermal Location

Within the Forest Area

Pricing

Geothermal Development Main Obstacles and Sollution

Funding

Licensing

Social Matters Issues


Licensing & Non-Licensing on Geothermal Sector of DGNREEC

PROPOSAL OF DE-REGULATION1. Recommendation for Approval of Amendment of

Investment2. Recommendation for Approval of Amendment

Shareholders3. Recommendation for Approval of Amendment of

Investment and Financing4. Recommendation for Approval of Amendment Articles

of Association5. Recommendations Approval of Amandement of

Directors and Commissioners6. Recommendation of RPTKA (Foreign Workers)7. Recommendation of Competency of Foreign Worker8. Recommendation Purchase and Use of Explosives9. Recommendation of Destruction of Explosives10. Approval of Purchasing Permission of Iron or Steel

DELEGATED TO BKPM

1. PSA2. IPB (Geothermal License)3. Permission to Use

Explosives4. Certification of Registration

of Geothermal

PERMANENT

1. Certificate of Eligibility of Equipment (SKPP)

2. Certificate of Installation (SKPI)

3. Approval of WPS/PQR and Welding Qualification

4. Recommendation of Imported Material

From 21 License & Non Licence 18 Licence & Non

Licence


Assignment on SOE

PSA+ Exploration

Fixed Tariff

Geothermal Development Breaktrough

Simplification of Licensing &

Non-Licensing

Incentive (Fiscal & Non Fiscal)

Geothermal Fund

Optimizing of Potential Development

in the Large Field

Kementerian ESDM Republik Indonesia 16www.ebtke.esdm.go.id

Jalan Pegangsaan Timur No. 1A Menteng, Jakarta Pusat 10320; Telp/Faks : 021-31924540

MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF THE REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA

DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF NEW, RENEWABLE ENERGY AND ENERGY CONSERVATION

Documents

MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF ... - MIGAS …ca}05.Ir.YunusSaefulhak,M.M.,M.T... · Equipment (SKPP) 2. Certificate of Installation (SKPI) 3. Approval of WPS/PQR and