Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Migration and the economic crisis: response of Brits at home and abroad Sheffield University23rd September 2013
The relationship between economic conditions and British
emigration from the UK
Home Office Research report, Emigration from the UK,published in 2012, sets outs key aspects of the scale and nature of long term emigration from the UK over the last 20 years.
This presentation sets out the key findings from the research focusing on the relationship between economic conditions, in the UK and receiving countries, and British emigration from the UK.
www.gov.uk/government/publications/emigration-from-the-uk
Overview
Outline
Net migration and levels of emigration
Why do British citizens leave the UK
Where do British citizens go
UK Economic conditions
The Emigration decision
Unemployment rates
GDP growth
Exchange rates
Differential impacts
Emigration increased in the last decade, falling since 2009
Net migration: all nationalities
British emigration fell to a low of 128,000 in 2010
Net migration: British citizens
Around half of all British citizens leaving the UK do so for work related reasons
‘Professional and managerial’ is the largest previous occupation group for British emigrants
Australia is the top British emigration destination
UK in period of limited economic growth
The UK experienced a sustained recession between spring 2008 and Summer 2009, and economic growth has been limited since then.
There are a number of variables that may indicate an ‘economic crisis’, including:
- Rising unemployment- Negative GDP growth- Low/Weak exchange rates
Home Office research explored whether British emigration from the UK is influenced by these 3 variables. The slides that follow attempt to explore these relationships. It should be seen as descriptive analysis only (as data quality did not permit full statistical analysis).
Economic conditions affect the decision to emigrate in different ways.
Emigration Decision
Capacity Incentive
Economic conditions
UK unemployment inversely associated with British emigration
19751977
19791981
19831985
19871989
19911993
19951997
19992001
20032005
20072009
2011
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Unemployment rates (ONS) Emigration (British Citizens)
Em
igra
tion
('0
00
s)
Un
em
plo
yme
nt r
ate
(%
)
Spain and UK unemployment inversely associated with British emigration to the EU15
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
British emigration to EU15 Spain unemployment UK unemployment
Germany unemployment France unemployment
Em
igra
tion
(0
00
s)
Un
em
plo
yme
nt r
ate
%
UK unemployment inversely related to British emigration to Australia
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
British emigration to Australia Australia unemployment UK unemployment
Em
igra
tion
(0
00
s)
Un
em
plo
yme
nt r
ate
(%
)
US and UK unemployment not related to British Emigration to the US
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
2010
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Brit Emigration to USA US Unemployment UK unemployment
Em
igra
tion
(0
00
s)
Un
em
plo
yme
nt r
ate
(%
)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
British emigration to EU15 Spain growth UK growth
France growth
Em
igra
tio
n (
00
0s
)
GD
P g
row
th r
ate
%
GDP growth related to British Emigration to EU15
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Brit Emigration to AUS GDP growth AUS GDP growth UK
Em
igra
tio
n (
00
0s
)
GD
P g
row
th r
ate
(%
)
GDP growth not related to British Emigration to Australia
GDP growth and British Emigration to the US
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
2010
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
British emigration to US GDP growth US GDP growth UK
Em
igra
tio
n (
00
0s
)
GD
P g
row
th r
ate
(%
)
Relative exchange rates associated with British emigration from the UK.
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q42000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
75
95
115
135
155
175
195
215
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
British Emigration GBP/EUR GBP/USD GBP/AUS
Em
igra
tion
(0
00
s)
Exc
ha
ng
e r
ate
This presentations sets out the findings relating to British Citizens, however different nationalities are likely to be influenced by economic conditions in different ways:
EU15 return emigration: inverse relationship UK/EURO exchange rate in recent years.
EU8 emigration from UK: strong relationship UK/EU8 unemployment and GDP/Zloty exchange rate
Non-EU emigration from the UK: flows not as responsive to short run changes in economic conditions.
Different economic conditions will effect different groups of migrants in different ways
Economic conditions will influence different groups of emigrants in different ways
Flows of those leaving the UK for work related reasons may be expected to fall during an economic downturn due to the impact on capacity to emigrate. Additionally if unemployment levels in destination countries high, incentive may also be reduced.
The incentive for Students to emigrate may increase during an economic downturn, whilst capacity may be limited.
Those retiring abroad, may lack capacity during an economic downturn. Relative exchange rates may also negatively impact upon the value of savings and therefore reduce incentive
Those emigrating to accompany/join family members, are less likely to be driven by national economic conditions.
Economic conditions will influence different groups of emigrants in different ways
– Unemployment rates:• UK unemployment appears to be associated with emigration levels
for British citizens, particularly to Spain and other EU15 countries. – GDP growth
• The general strength of the receiving economies might be of limited importance and other drivers such as family networks or migration policy may have a stronger influence on emigration, at least within the EU.
• For outflows of British nationals to Australia and the US there appears to be no clear relationship between GDP growth and emigration
– Exchange rates • Data from 2000 to 2010 suggest that sustained falls in British
emigration since 2007 have been mirrored by the depreciation of the pound against the Australian dollar, the Euro and the US dollar.
• Difficult to explore further due to IPS sample sizes.
Key points
