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Real estate and economic data for Phoenix, AZ
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WeallknowtheValley’srealestatemarkethasbeenvolatileoverthelast5+years.Thegoodnewsisthingsarechanging.Distressedhomesaredownapproximately75%fromlastyearandtheactualsupplyofhomesisbelowthatofa“normalmarket”.TheValleyispositionedforacomeback.Notacomebackof2005proportions,butastable,steadycomebackwhichwewillwelcome. Keepinmindrealestateislocal.Whatyouhearnationallymaynotreflectwhatisactuallyhappeninginyourneighborhood.RememberwhenArizonawasreaching47%appreciationinoneyear,mostofthecountrywasnowherenearthatlevel.Thesameconceptisvalidagain.Arizonawas#3lastyearforforeclosuresanddistressedpropertiesbehindFloridaandNevada.Wearenow#27!Wearemovingrapidlyintherightdirection.Pleasestudythisinformationandfeelfreetopassitontoanyoneyouknowwhomayneedhelpdecipheringourcurrentmarket.Weallneedtoknowwhatourpropertyvalueisandwhereitisgoing.Thisisvalidwhetheryouarebuyingorselling.Let’sdiscussyourpersonalsituationandgoalsandcomeupwithaplan. IamveryexcitedaboutthepositivemovementArizonahashadandlookforwardtohelpingyougetthemostvalueoutofyourhome.
Jeannine
JEANNINE BARTNICKICRS,GRI,ABR,SRS,e-PRO,RSPS,CDPE,CLHMS
Certified Luxury Home Property SpecialistCertified Residential Specialist
senior sales & marketing consultant
If your home is currently listed, this is not a solicitation for that listing. ProducedbyDesertLifestylePublishing•480.460.0996•www.DesertLifestyle.net
2011 Sales Statistics By CommunityCommunity Average DaysOn List/Sell # SalesPrice Market PriceRatio Closed
Ancala........................................$1,028,816................. 142..................93%..........................39
Bellasera........................................$441,157................. 139..................95%..........................19
DCRanch......................................$834,211................. 170..................95%.........................124
DesertHighlands.......................$1,283,186................. 277..................90%..........................18
DesertMountain........................$1,273,481................. 429..................88%.........................106
EagleMountain............................$515,914................. 193..................94%..........................27
Estancia......................................$1,973,181................. 294..................88%..........................11
FireRock......................................$1,151,845................. 271..................92%..........................24
GaineyRanch..............................$790,592................. 186..................93%..........................21
Grayhawk.....................................$526,555................. 122..................96%.........................142
HiddenHills....................................$664,171................. 133..................96%..........................32
IronwoodVillage..........................$337,443................. 105..................97%..........................44
LegendTrail...................................$507,262................. 150..................95%..........................51
McCormickRanch.......................$442,812................. 135..................96%..........................24
McDowellMountainRanch........$484,628................. 114..................95%.........................218
Mirabel..........................................$947,815................. 331..................89%..........................52
ScottsdaleMountain...................$639,893................. 157..................95%..........................40
ScottsdaleRanch.........................$431,296................. 112..................96%..........................77
Sincuidados..................................$771,923................. 184..................94%..........................13
Silverleaf.....................................$2,173,735................. 353..................86%..........................46
Stonegate.....................................$475,787................. 171..................94%..........................51
Terravita.........................................$425,710................. 142..................95%..........................76
WhisperRock.............................$1,866,900................. 667..................87%...........................5
Winfield..........................................$468,014................. 196..................96%..........................17
Statistics gathered from ARMLS. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.(Single-Family Residences)
2011 Average Sales Price By City
Statistics gathered from ARMLS. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. (Single-Family Residences)
Glendale
Phoenix
Mesa
Peoria
Tempe
Gilbert
Litchfield Park
Chandler
Cave Creek
Fountain Hills
Scottsdale
Carefree
Paradise Valley
$117,597
$129,482
$139,952
$331,848
$405,408
$479,407
$682,714
$1,316,573
$190,588
$168,879
$194,236
$164,317
$199,320
TherecoveryintheMetroPhoenixhousingmarketstartedquitegentlyinSeptember2011butgraduallygrewinstrength,andbythespringof2012itwasrunningattopspeed.Theimmediatelyobviousimpactwasastrongriseinpricing,infactagreaterpercentagerisethananyothermetropolitanareaintheUSA.Alookbackat2012comparedwith2011showsusthat:•Theannualaveragepricepersq.ft.rosebyover20% from$81.59to$98.24•Theannualaveragesalespriceincreased23%from $156,774to$192,549•Theannualmediansalespricejumped27%from$110,000 to$140,000 Inventorywaslowthroughout2012,causingintensecompetitionamongbuyers.Thiswasparticularlytrueatthelowerendofthemarket.Buyerswithcashheldasubstantialadvantage,sincetheycouldimpresssellerswiththefactthattheirofferdidnotdependonobtainingapprovalforaloanorasatisfactoryappraisal.Forthehigherpriceranges,supplyanddemandweremorebalanced,butpricesincreasedinmostareasasconfidencereturnedtothemarket. Salesvolumeswerelowerin2012than2011,butthiswaslargelyduetoashortageofaffordablehomestobuy,notbecauseoflackofdemand.Atthestartof2011,nearlyhalfofhomespurchasedwerelender-ownedforeclosures,butbytheendof2012thesehaddroppedtolessthan13%ofsales.Meanwhilenormalsalesgrewfromjust29%ofsalesinJanuary2011to61%inDecember2012.Shortsalestookoverfromforeclosuresasthepreferredmeansofresolving
homeloandelinquency.Theyconstituted21%ofsalesatthebeginningof2011,and26%bytheendof2012. Delinquenthomeloanswererunningashighas16.3%inArizonaasrecentlyasFebruary2010.ByOctober2012thishaddroppedto7.7%,accordingtoreportsbyLenderProcessingServices.Thisimprovementisthelargestofanystateinthenation.Arizona’snon-judicialforeclosureprocesshasallowedittoeliminatedelinquentloansatamuchfasterpacethanstateswithajudicialprocess.Thisisbadnewsfortheborrowersinvolved,butgoodnewsforthemarketsincewenolongerhavetheimpendingthreatofsignificantdistressedinventorycomingontothemarket. Manyfamilieswholosttheirhomesthroughforeclosureandshortsalesin2008and2009arenowplanningtostoprentingandgetbackintohomeownership.Thiswilladdtothe2013demandforhomestoown,ratherthantorent. Investorshavebeenaverysignificantpartofthedemandsinceearly2009andthisdidnotchangein2012.Whatdidchangeisthatmorepropertieswerepurchasedbylargemulti-nationalinvestorsinsteadofsmallerlocalplayers.Nowthatpricinghasrespondedtotheexcessdemandoversupply,weexpectdemandfromthelargeinvestorstoslowlydissipatein2013. Thenewhomemarkethassprungbacktolifeafteraprolongedhibernationbetween2008and2011.In2012,demandfornewhomesoutpaceddevelopers’abilitytobuildthem.Ashortageofskilledconstructionworkersandlimitedfinishedlotsinbuilders’ownershipmeantthatthegrowthinnewsaleswassomewhatstifled.Neverthelesswesawnewhomesalesgrowby49%between2011and2012despitesignificant
increasesinprices.Developersarenowbuyingupnewlandandfinishedlotstosetthemselvesuptosupplymorehomesin2013.Withtheexpectedincreaseinpopulationthough,thisisnotexpectedtobeenoughtomeetthecomingdemand. OveralltheMetroPhoenixhousingmarketisinastrongerpositionnowthanithasbeensincelate2005.Manythemesfrom2012willprobablycontinueinto2013asthemarketheadsbacktonormal.Foreclosuresandshortsalesareexpectedtodecline.Newhomeandnormalre-salesarelikelytoincrease,whilelowinventorywillcontinuetobeakeyfactorincausingpricestomovehigher.Withnosignificantsourceofnewsupply,wedon’tseeinventoryrisingbacktonormallevelsforaverylongtime. Inthecurrentmarket,homesareeasytosellbutsometimesbuyingcanbeachallengeduetocompetitionfromotherbuyers.Evenso,owningahomeisfinanciallymuchmoreattractivethanrentingbecauseinterestratesonhomeloansareunusuallylowandhomepricesarestillcheapbyhistoricalstandards,especiallywhencomparedwithrentalrates.Withtheinventoryofhomesforsaleexpectedtostaylowforsomeconsiderabletime,buyersarelikelytohavetheirpatiencerewardedwithcontinuedstrongappreciation.Mostofthosewhoboughthomesin2011havealreadyseenverystronggrowthinthevalueoftheirhome,andbythetimewereach2015wearelikelytobesayingthesameaboutthosewhopurchasedhomesbetween2009and2013.
AuthorandstatisticianMichaelOrristheDirectorofRealEstateStudiesatASU’sW.P.CareySchoolofBusiness,andPrincipalofTheCromfordReport.
IN THE NATIONAL SPOTLIGHT Aswe’veturnedthepageonanotheryear,thenationaleconomycontinuesitsmodestrecovery.Optimismtingedwithuncertaintyseemtobetheprevailingsentiments.Althoughtheworsteffectsofthe“fiscalcliff”havebeenaverted,thereisstillawait-and-seeattitudeamongconsumersandemployersregardingtaxationandfederalspendingpolicies. Corporationsareflushwithcash,butarewarytospendonhiringorotherbusinessexpendituresuntilfurtherclarityontheeconomy’spathisavailable.However,onceCorporateAmericagainsconfidence,thetrillionsofdollarsandrecordprofitsthey’resittingoncanbeinjectedintothemarketplacethroughemployment,manufacturing,andotherbusinessinvestment. ThereisadirectcorrelationbetweenanincreaseinconsumerconfidenceandanincreaseintheGDP.Whenconsumersarecomfortableandconfident,theyspendmoney,pavingthewayforbusinessexpansion.Forconsumerstofeelconfidentin2013,thereneedstobeacontinuedimprovementinthefinancialmarketsandhomevalues,alongwithaprogressiveloweringoftheunemploymentratecoupledwithaveragewageincreases.TheGDPisexpectedtogrowatapproximately2%in2013,aboutthesameaslastyear. Ourfinancialmarketsenjoyedarobust2012withtheS&P500finishingwithjustundera12%growth.Whiletherecentlyenactedtaxlawchangesmaydampensomeoftheenthusiasmininvestingforsome,manymarketforecastersareprojectinga6%-12%growthfortheS&P500thisyear. Thebrightspotintheeconomyin2012wasthehousingmarket,aslowmortgageratesandaffordablehomepricesnationwidekepthomessellingatabriskpace.Fortunatelythattrendisexpectedtocontinuein2013.Infact,someareasareexperiencingsuchahousingshortagethattheconstructionindustryisstrugglingtomeetdemand.ThatisespeciallytrueinourArizonamarket(seetheResidentialRealEstatearticle.) Kiplinger.comforecastsamoderate,butsteadyjobgrowththrough2013withaprojectedannualtotalofanaddedtwomillionjobsbyyearend.Similarly,theunemploymentrateisprojectedtodriftdowntoabout7.5%vs.7.8%attheendof2012. Mosteconomistsareexpectinganoverallimprovementinournation’seconomic
healthin2013.WayneStutzer,SeniorVicePresidentandFinancialConsultantforRBCWealthManagement,explainsthecyclicalnatureoftheeconomy.“Thetopofthemarketwasin2006.Today,2013istheseventhyearofthetypicalseven-yeareconomiccycle.We’realmostoutofthewoods.”Thewildcardmaybehowthenewtaxlawsimpacttheeconomyasthehigh-incomeearnerstargetedwithtaxincreasesalsoaccountforhalfofournation’sconsumerspending.Weareexpectingslowbutencouragingprogressinalloftheseareasin2013.Stutzercontinues,“Ifthingsgowell,then2013willberememberedastheeconomicyearthatsetthestageformuchbetteryearstocome.”
ARIZONA HEATS UP AlongwithNevada,Arizonawasgroundzeroforthehousingmeltdown,plaguedbyhighforeclosuresandhighunemploymentduring2006-2010.However,Arizonastagedastrongeconomiccomebackin2012,boastingthebesthousingmarketinthenation. “AsofSeptember2012,Arizonarankedfifthamongstatesforjobgrowth,andtheMetroPhoenixareawasfourthamonglargemetropolitanareas,”saysLeeMcPheters,ResearchProfessorandDirectoroftheJPMorganChaseEconomicOutlookCenterattheW.P.CareySchoolofBusiness.ThisisanextraordinaryimprovementfromArizona’slowpointin2009whenArizonafellfromanenviablejobgrowthrankingofsecondin2006,toadismal49thofthe50statesin2009.“Arizonaisexpectedtoadd60,000jobsin2013.Weshouldfinallydipbelow8%unemploymentin2013–downto7.6%.” Arizona’seconomicgrowthhashistoricallybeenstokedbyencouragingbusinessesandpeopletomovehere.Arizonaoffersadesirableclimate,affordablehousing,andagrowingbusinessenvironmentwithreasonablestatetaxrates.ArizonastandstobenefitfromCalifornia’srecentlyenactedProposition30whichraisesanalreadyhighstatesalestaxevenhigher,whilesignificantlyraisingincometaxesonindividualsmaking$250,000ormore.TheGreaterPhoenixEconomicCouncilhasdoubledtheireffortstoattractCaliforniabusinessesandtheiremployeestoArizona.ThesenewCaliforniataxlawchangesareexpectedtosignificantlyincreasepopulationflowstoArizona’sadvantage. ElliottD.Pollack,CEOoflocaleconomicconsultingfirmElliottD.PollackandCompany,notestheimportanceofmigration
toourstate.“Intheabsenceofthefiscalcliff,thingsshouldcontinuetoimproveoverthenextseveralyears.By2015,thingsshouldbenormalized.AsIliketosay,we’reonlyonedecentpopulation-flowyearawayfromtheissuebeingresolved.” MetroPhoenixhasrisenfromitshousingmeltdownwithencouragingjobgrowthledbyahousingboomthathasnowcausedaresidentialhousingshortage.Homebuildersaresteadilydustingofftheirequipmentandbuildinghomestomeetdemand.NewhomesalesinjectfreshlifeintotheArizonaeconomyandtaxbase.ThejourneytowardcontinuedeconomicgrowthandprosperityforArizonaseemstoonceagainbeheadingdownthefamiliarpathofbuildingandsellinghomestomeetincreasingdemand.
G E N E R A L E C O N O M I C S NA P S H OT
R E S I D E N T I A L R E A L E S TAT E
2013 ECONOMIC FORECASTS
GDPGROWTH2% growth in ’13,
about the same as last year. . .
INTERESTRATESLittleornoincrease
inshort-termratesin‘13. . .
BUSINESSSPENDINGAbouta4%gainin’13,
halfof‘12’space. . .
HOUSINGSALESUp8%,helpingGDPin’13
. . .TRADEDEFICIT
Wideningby2%in’13,afteraslightdipin’12
. . .UNEMPLOYMENT
Headingtoabout7.5%bytheendof‘13
. . .INFLATION
Slightlyhigherthisyear,2.3%. . .
ENERGYOiltradingat$90-$95/barrel
throughearlyspring. . .
RETAILSALES5%growthin’13
afterstrongholidaysales
Source:TheKiplingerLetter
ByMichaelOrr
ACTIVE LISTING COUNTSGreaterPhoenix-ARMLSResidential
SALES PER MONTHGreaterPhoenix-ARMLSResidential-MeasuredMonthly
MONTHLY AVERAGE SALES PRICE PER SQUARE FOOTGreaterPhoenix-ARMLSResidential
TherecoveryintheMetroPhoenixhousingmarketstartedquitegentlyinSeptember2011butgraduallygrewinstrength,andbythespringof2012itwasrunningattopspeed.Theimmediatelyobviousimpactwasastrongriseinpricing,infactagreaterpercentagerisethananyothermetropolitanareaintheUSA.Alookbackat2012comparedwith2011showsusthat:•Theannualaveragepricepersq.ft.rosebyover20% from$81.59to$98.24•Theannualaveragesalespriceincreased23%from $156,774to$192,549•Theannualmediansalespricejumped27%from$110,000 to$140,000 Inventorywaslowthroughout2012,causingintensecompetitionamongbuyers.Thiswasparticularlytrueatthelowerendofthemarket.Buyerswithcashheldasubstantialadvantage,sincetheycouldimpresssellerswiththefactthattheirofferdidnotdependonobtainingapprovalforaloanorasatisfactoryappraisal.Forthehigherpriceranges,supplyanddemandweremorebalanced,butpricesincreasedinmostareasasconfidencereturnedtothemarket. Salesvolumeswerelowerin2012than2011,butthiswaslargelyduetoashortageofaffordablehomestobuy,notbecauseoflackofdemand.Atthestartof2011,nearlyhalfofhomespurchasedwerelender-ownedforeclosures,butbytheendof2012thesehaddroppedtolessthan13%ofsales.Meanwhilenormalsalesgrewfromjust29%ofsalesinJanuary2011to61%inDecember2012.Shortsalestookoverfromforeclosuresasthepreferredmeansofresolving
homeloandelinquency.Theyconstituted21%ofsalesatthebeginningof2011,and26%bytheendof2012. Delinquenthomeloanswererunningashighas16.3%inArizonaasrecentlyasFebruary2010.ByOctober2012thishaddroppedto7.7%,accordingtoreportsbyLenderProcessingServices.Thisimprovementisthelargestofanystateinthenation.Arizona’snon-judicialforeclosureprocesshasallowedittoeliminatedelinquentloansatamuchfasterpacethanstateswithajudicialprocess.Thisisbadnewsfortheborrowersinvolved,butgoodnewsforthemarketsincewenolongerhavetheimpendingthreatofsignificantdistressedinventorycomingontothemarket. Manyfamilieswholosttheirhomesthroughforeclosureandshortsalesin2008and2009arenowplanningtostoprentingandgetbackintohomeownership.Thiswilladdtothe2013demandforhomestoown,ratherthantorent. Investorshavebeenaverysignificantpartofthedemandsinceearly2009andthisdidnotchangein2012.Whatdidchangeisthatmorepropertieswerepurchasedbylargemulti-nationalinvestorsinsteadofsmallerlocalplayers.Nowthatpricinghasrespondedtotheexcessdemandoversupply,weexpectdemandfromthelargeinvestorstoslowlydissipatein2013. Thenewhomemarkethassprungbacktolifeafteraprolongedhibernationbetween2008and2011.In2012,demandfornewhomesoutpaceddevelopers’abilitytobuildthem.Ashortageofskilledconstructionworkersandlimitedfinishedlotsinbuilders’ownershipmeantthatthegrowthinnewsaleswassomewhatstifled.Neverthelesswesawnewhomesalesgrowby49%between2011and2012despitesignificant
increasesinprices.Developersarenowbuyingupnewlandandfinishedlotstosetthemselvesuptosupplymorehomesin2013.Withtheexpectedincreaseinpopulationthough,thisisnotexpectedtobeenoughtomeetthecomingdemand. OveralltheMetroPhoenixhousingmarketisinastrongerpositionnowthanithasbeensincelate2005.Manythemesfrom2012willprobablycontinueinto2013asthemarketheadsbacktonormal.Foreclosuresandshortsalesareexpectedtodecline.Newhomeandnormalre-salesarelikelytoincrease,whilelowinventorywillcontinuetobeakeyfactorincausingpricestomovehigher.Withnosignificantsourceofnewsupply,wedon’tseeinventoryrisingbacktonormallevelsforaverylongtime. Inthecurrentmarket,homesareeasytosellbutsometimesbuyingcanbeachallengeduetocompetitionfromotherbuyers.Evenso,owningahomeisfinanciallymuchmoreattractivethanrentingbecauseinterestratesonhomeloansareunusuallylowandhomepricesarestillcheapbyhistoricalstandards,especiallywhencomparedwithrentalrates.Withtheinventoryofhomesforsaleexpectedtostaylowforsomeconsiderabletime,buyersarelikelytohavetheirpatiencerewardedwithcontinuedstrongappreciation.Mostofthosewhoboughthomesin2011havealreadyseenverystronggrowthinthevalueoftheirhome,andbythetimewereach2015wearelikelytobesayingthesameaboutthosewhopurchasedhomesbetween2009and2013.
AuthorandstatisticianMichaelOrristheDirectorofRealEstateStudiesatASU’sW.P.CareySchoolofBusiness,andPrincipalofTheCromfordReport.
IN THE NATIONAL SPOTLIGHT Aswe’veturnedthepageonanotheryear,thenationaleconomycontinuesitsmodestrecovery.Optimismtingedwithuncertaintyseemtobetheprevailingsentiments.Althoughtheworsteffectsofthe“fiscalcliff”havebeenaverted,thereisstillawait-and-seeattitudeamongconsumersandemployersregardingtaxationandfederalspendingpolicies. Corporationsareflushwithcash,butarewarytospendonhiringorotherbusinessexpendituresuntilfurtherclarityontheeconomy’spathisavailable.However,onceCorporateAmericagainsconfidence,thetrillionsofdollarsandrecordprofitsthey’resittingoncanbeinjectedintothemarketplacethroughemployment,manufacturing,andotherbusinessinvestment. ThereisadirectcorrelationbetweenanincreaseinconsumerconfidenceandanincreaseintheGDP.Whenconsumersarecomfortableandconfident,theyspendmoney,pavingthewayforbusinessexpansion.Forconsumerstofeelconfidentin2013,thereneedstobeacontinuedimprovementinthefinancialmarketsandhomevalues,alongwithaprogressiveloweringoftheunemploymentratecoupledwithaveragewageincreases.TheGDPisexpectedtogrowatapproximately2%in2013,aboutthesameaslastyear. Ourfinancialmarketsenjoyedarobust2012withtheS&P500finishingwithjustundera12%growth.Whiletherecentlyenactedtaxlawchangesmaydampensomeoftheenthusiasmininvestingforsome,manymarketforecastersareprojectinga6%-12%growthfortheS&P500thisyear. Thebrightspotintheeconomyin2012wasthehousingmarket,aslowmortgageratesandaffordablehomepricesnationwidekepthomessellingatabriskpace.Fortunatelythattrendisexpectedtocontinuein2013.Infact,someareasareexperiencingsuchahousingshortagethattheconstructionindustryisstrugglingtomeetdemand.ThatisespeciallytrueinourArizonamarket(seetheResidentialRealEstatearticle.) Kiplinger.comforecastsamoderate,butsteadyjobgrowththrough2013withaprojectedannualtotalofanaddedtwomillionjobsbyyearend.Similarly,theunemploymentrateisprojectedtodriftdowntoabout7.5%vs.7.8%attheendof2012. Mosteconomistsareexpectinganoverallimprovementinournation’seconomic
healthin2013.WayneStutzer,SeniorVicePresidentandFinancialConsultantforRBCWealthManagement,explainsthecyclicalnatureoftheeconomy.“Thetopofthemarketwasin2006.Today,2013istheseventhyearofthetypicalseven-yeareconomiccycle.We’realmostoutofthewoods.”Thewildcardmaybehowthenewtaxlawsimpacttheeconomyasthehigh-incomeearnerstargetedwithtaxincreasesalsoaccountforhalfofournation’sconsumerspending.Weareexpectingslowbutencouragingprogressinalloftheseareasin2013.Stutzercontinues,“Ifthingsgowell,then2013willberememberedastheeconomicyearthatsetthestageformuchbetteryearstocome.”
ARIZONA HEATS UP AlongwithNevada,Arizonawasgroundzeroforthehousingmeltdown,plaguedbyhighforeclosuresandhighunemploymentduring2006-2010.However,Arizonastagedastrongeconomiccomebackin2012,boastingthebesthousingmarketinthenation. “AsofSeptember2012,Arizonarankedfifthamongstatesforjobgrowth,andtheMetroPhoenixareawasfourthamonglargemetropolitanareas,”saysLeeMcPheters,ResearchProfessorandDirectoroftheJPMorganChaseEconomicOutlookCenterattheW.P.CareySchoolofBusiness.ThisisanextraordinaryimprovementfromArizona’slowpointin2009whenArizonafellfromanenviablejobgrowthrankingofsecondin2006,toadismal49thofthe50statesin2009.“Arizonaisexpectedtoadd60,000jobsin2013.Weshouldfinallydipbelow8%unemploymentin2013–downto7.6%.” Arizona’seconomicgrowthhashistoricallybeenstokedbyencouragingbusinessesandpeopletomovehere.Arizonaoffersadesirableclimate,affordablehousing,andagrowingbusinessenvironmentwithreasonablestatetaxrates.ArizonastandstobenefitfromCalifornia’srecentlyenactedProposition30whichraisesanalreadyhighstatesalestaxevenhigher,whilesignificantlyraisingincometaxesonindividualsmaking$250,000ormore.TheGreaterPhoenixEconomicCouncilhasdoubledtheireffortstoattractCaliforniabusinessesandtheiremployeestoArizona.ThesenewCaliforniataxlawchangesareexpectedtosignificantlyincreasepopulationflowstoArizona’sadvantage. ElliottD.Pollack,CEOoflocaleconomicconsultingfirmElliottD.PollackandCompany,notestheimportanceofmigration
toourstate.“Intheabsenceofthefiscalcliff,thingsshouldcontinuetoimproveoverthenextseveralyears.By2015,thingsshouldbenormalized.AsIliketosay,we’reonlyonedecentpopulation-flowyearawayfromtheissuebeingresolved.” MetroPhoenixhasrisenfromitshousingmeltdownwithencouragingjobgrowthledbyahousingboomthathasnowcausedaresidentialhousingshortage.Homebuildersaresteadilydustingofftheirequipmentandbuildinghomestomeetdemand.NewhomesalesinjectfreshlifeintotheArizonaeconomyandtaxbase.ThejourneytowardcontinuedeconomicgrowthandprosperityforArizonaseemstoonceagainbeheadingdownthefamiliarpathofbuildingandsellinghomestomeetincreasingdemand.
G E N E R A L E C O N O M I C S NA P S H OT
R E S I D E N T I A L R E A L E S TAT E
2013 ECONOMIC FORECASTS
GDPGROWTH2% growth in ’13,
about the same as last year. . .
INTERESTRATESLittleornoincrease
inshort-termratesin‘13. . .
BUSINESSSPENDINGAbouta4%gainin’13,
halfof‘12’space. . .
HOUSINGSALESUp8%,helpingGDPin’13
. . .TRADEDEFICIT
Wideningby2%in’13,afteraslightdipin’12
. . .UNEMPLOYMENT
Headingtoabout7.5%bytheendof‘13
. . .INFLATION
Slightlyhigherthisyear,2.3%. . .
ENERGYOiltradingat$90-$95/barrel
throughearlyspring. . .
RETAILSALES5%growthin’13
afterstrongholidaysales
Source:TheKiplingerLetter
ByMichaelOrr
ACTIVE LISTING COUNTSGreaterPhoenix-ARMLSResidential
SALES PER MONTHGreaterPhoenix-ARMLSResidential-MeasuredMonthly
MONTHLY AVERAGE SALES PRICE PER SQUARE FOOTGreaterPhoenix-ARMLSResidential
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www.azresortlifestyle.com
If your home is currently listed, this is not a solicitation for that listing. Produced by Desert Lifestyle Publishing • 480.460.0996 • www.DesertLifestyle.net
2012 Sales Statistics By CommunityCommunity Average Days On List/Sell #
Sales Price Market Price Ratio Closed
Ancala .......................................$1,184,433 ................ 156 ................. 96% .........................37
Bellasera .......................................$511,496 ................. 76 .................. 97% .........................29
DC Ranch ..................................$1,007,616 ................ 141 ................. 95% ........................118
Desert Highlands .......................$1,643,402 ................ 349 ................. 90% .........................23
Desert Mountain .......................$1,338,941 ................ 413 ................. 89% .........................96
Eagle Mountain ............................$528,672 ................ 115 ................. 97% .........................30
Estancia .....................................$2,499,250 ............... 210 ................. 80% ..........................8
FireRock .....................................$1,208,519 ................ 213 ................. 92% .........................26
Gainey Ranch ..............................$794,150 ................ 220 ................. 92% .........................30
Grayhawk.....................................$572,259 ................. 82 .................. 96% ........................133
Hidden Hills...................................$617,407 ................ 126 ................. 96% .........................28
Ironwood Village .........................$355,185 ................. 85 .................. 97% .........................32
Legend Trail ..................................$567,455 ................ 128 ................. 96% .........................60
McCormick Ranch ......................$421,856 ................. 82 .................. 97% .........................63
McDowell Mountain Ranch ........$513,130 ................. 73 .................. 97% ........................205
Mirabel ......................................$1,144,459 ................ 271 ................. 92% .........................28
Scottsdale Mountain ...................$607,771 ................ 141 ................. 96% .........................52
Scottsdale Ranch.........................$544,665 ................ 109 ................. 95% .........................95
Sincuidados .................................$819,933 ................ 201 ................. 95% .........................15
Silverleaf ....................................$2,031,150 ................ 258 ................. 92% .........................35
Stonegate .....................................$521,957 ................. 95 .................. 97% .........................63
Terravita ........................................$458,572 ................ 147 ................. 96% ........................103
Whisper Rock ............................$1,748,375 ................ 236 ................. 91% ..........................8
Winfield .........................................$557,957 ................ 123 ................. 96% .........................14
Statistics gathered from ARMLS. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. (Single-Family Residences)
2012 Average Sales Price By City
Statistics gathered from ARMLS. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. (Single-Family Residences)
Glendale
Phoenix
Mesa
Peoria
Litchfield Park
Tempe
Gilbert
Chandler
Cave Creek
Fountain Hills
Scottsdale
Carefree
Paradise Valley
$147,050
$169,964
$173,024
$363,245
$421,963
$512,231
$694,947
$1,345,837
$206,811
$213,566
$227,122
$194,483
$231,107
