Megacities on the Move (Toolkit Full Report)

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megacitieson the moveyour guide to the future of

sustainable urban mobility in 2040


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about

Megacities on the Move has been led byForum for the Future in partnership withEMBARQ and was funded by Vodafoneand the FIA Foundation for the Automobileand Society.

Date of publication:November 2010

Registered office:Overseas House1923 Ironmonger RowLondon EC1V 3QN

Company No. 2959712VAT Reg. No. 6777475 70Charity No. 1040519

Design:www.thomasmatthews.com

Forum for the Future is the UKs leading sustainabledevelopment NGO. We work internationally withgovernment, business and public service providers,helping them to develop strategies to achievesuccess through sustainability, to deliver productsand services which enhance peoples lives and are

better for the environment, and to lead the way to

a better world.

www.forumforthefuture.org

Download

All the Megacities on the Moveresources at:www.forumforthefuture.org/projects/

megacities-on-the-move

Forum for the Future Authors:Ivana Gazibara, James Goodman andPeter Madden.

Forum for the Future support team:Chris Dewey, Stephanie Draper, Rupert

Fausset, Joy Green, Joe Hall, RuthHarwood, Clare Jenkinson, David Mason,Gustavo Montes de Oca, Nathalie Nathe,Will Nitch-Smith, Kate OHagan, HannaPlant, Francesca Rutherford, Ulrike Stein,Claire Wyatt.

Special thanks to our partners:Sheila Watson, Director of Environment,The FIA Foundation; Nicola Woodhead,Group Environment Manager, Vodafone;Chris Burgess, Corporate ResponsibilityDirector, Vodafone; Caroline Dewing,Senior Manager, Communications Strategy,Vodafone; Samaresh Parida, Director,Strategy, Vodafone Essar; Prema Shrikrishna,Manager Corporate Responsibility,Vodafone Essar; Tugba Unal, Corporate

Affairs, Vodafone Turkey; Prajna Rao,Urban Planner, EMBARQ (CST India);Madhav Pai, Director, EMBARQ India;

Ahmet Birsel, Programme Manager,EMBARQ (SUM Turkey); Sibel Bulay,

Director, EMBARQ Turkey; Nancy Kete,former Director, EMBARQ; Clayton Lane,

Acting Director, EMBARQ.

Special thanks also to the many peoplewho contributed to the project through

interviews, workshops and peer reviews.

For a full list please refer to the Appendix.

FIA FoundationThe FIA Foundation is an independentUK registered charity which managesand supports an international programmeof activities promoting road safety,environmental protection and sustainablemobility, as well as funding specialistmotor sport safety research.www.fiafoundation.org

VodafoneVodafone is one of the worlds largest mobilecommunications companies by revenuewith approximately 347 million proportionatecustomers as at 30 June 2010. Vodafonecurrently has equity interests in over 30countries across five continents and over40 partner networks worldwide. For moreinformation, please visit www.vodafone.com

EMBARQThe EMBARQ global network catalysesenvironmentally and financially sustainabletransport solutions to improve quality oflife in cities. Since 2002, the network hasgrown to include five Centres for Sustainable

Transport, located in Mexico, Brazil, India,Turkey and the Andean Region, that worktogether with local transport authorities toreduce pollution, improve public health,and create safe, accessible and attractiveurban public spaces. www.embarq.org

Return to contents

For more information on Megacities onthe Move or to organise a workshopplease email Ivana Gazibara at:[email protected], or call +44 (0)20 7324 3673.

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Foreword p5

How can you use this toolkit? p7

Whats ahead?Factors shaping the future p8

What can you do?Six solutions for sustainableurban mobility p11

Scenario summaries p12

Perspectives from our partners p16

contents

contents

What are scenarios? p18

How were the scenarios created? p18

Key variables: energy sourcesand global governance p19

The scenarios:Planned-opolis p20Sprawl-ville p24Renew-abad p28

Communi-city p32

1. Integrate, integrate, integrate p38

2. Make the poor a priority p40

3. Go beyond the car p41

4. Switch on to IT networks p43

5. Refuel our vehicles p45

6. Change peoples behaviour p47

Sample workshop agendaand exercises p50

Case study: Istanbul p56

Case study: Mumbai p60

Appendix: Thank yous p64

1.overview p4

2.whats your destination?four scenarios for urbanmobility in 2040 p17

3.what can you do? sixsolutions for sustainableurban mobility p36

4.plan the future nowhow to run a workshopusing the scenarios p49

planned-opolisp20 sprawl-villep24 renew-abadp28 communi-cityp32

scenarios:

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1. overviewmegacities on the move


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Tokyo skyline What is mobility?

In this toolkit, mobility means morethan just transport. Our definitionof mobility is a means of access to goods, services, people andinformation. This includes physicalmovement, but also other solutionssuch as ICT-based platforms, moreeffective public service deliveryprovision, and urban design thatimproves accessibility. To plan forpeoples needs in the megacitiesof the future, we need to look at allof these aspects together.

What are megacities?

Megacities are urban areas with apopulation in excess of 10 millionpeople. For more information, see:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megacity

Megacities on the Move, a collaborationbetween Forum for the Future, the FIAFoundation, Vodafone and EMBARQ, canhelp you find answers to these questions.It is a toolkit designed to help governments,companies and civil society organisationsunderstand the challenges of the future andstart planning for sustainable city living.

Humankind recently reached a historic

tipping point: for the first time more peoplelive in cities than outside them. This trendis set to intensify. By 2040 two in threepeople on the planet will be city-dwellers.1There will be many more of us, as worldpopulation grows by two billion, and farmore megacities, primarily in Asia, Africaand Latin America.

The social, environmental and economicimplications of this will be enormous.

All over the globe, cities need to startplanning now to radically re-engineer their

infrastructures to cope with much largerpopulations than they currently support.

But cities do not exist in isolation. Theywill need to succeed in a world wherekey resources are in short supply: fromoil scarcity and rising energy prices tocompetition between biofuels and foodproduction, there are major challengesahead that face us all. There will becritical questions about how we managethese resources, who controls them, andwho can afford them.

Overlaying and intensifying all of thesepressures is climate change. Cities will haveto deal with both the policy responses, suchas more expensive carbon, and the physical

1United Nations Department of Economic and

Social Affairs, World Urbanization Prospects:The 2009 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/index.htm (accessed on 24 September, 2010).

foreword the futureof the world is urbanHow will people travel in the cities of the future?How will billions of city-dwellers access whatthey need without putting intolerable strains

on the planet? How can we plan now for moresustainable ways of life in a radically different world?

1. overview > foreword

impacts of changing weather patterns.Throughout human history we have built ourmajor settlements on rivers, estuaries andcoasts. Sea level rise and more frequent andintense storms and floods are just some ofthe impacts cities will have to contend with.

It is clear that people must find sustainableways to live and travel in cities. We wontsurvive without new thinking and more

creative approaches. We will needcompletely new ways to produce anddeliver goods and services, consumeand move about. Cities are in many waysplaces of opportunity hot-houses foreconomic, social and cultural innovation so they are likely to be the places wherewe find new solutions to mobility.

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ULTra PRT, w ww.ultraprt.com

1. overview > foreword

Megacities on the Move

Read on to find out more aboutthe challenges and solutions of thefuture. Download all the Megacitieson the Move resources at: www.forumforthefuture.org/projects/megacities-on-the-move

Peter Madden,CEO, Forum for the Future

Clayton Lane,Acting Director, EMBARQ

Sibel Bulay,Director, EMBARQ Turkey

Madhav Pai,Director, EMBARQ India

Sheila Watson,Director of Environment, The FIA Foundation

Nicola Woodhead,Group Environment Manager, Vodafone

Megacities on the Moveoffers six sustainablemobility solutions that we can all beginacting on today, from integrated planning,to looking beyond the car, to improved useof technology. But more than anything,we want you to take this toolkit and applyit to your own context. Through research,interviews, and workshops in Istanbul andMumbai, we have collected the most excitingthinking about sustainable mobility. We have

used this to create four scenarios that paintchallenging but realistic pictures of what thefuture could hold. They enable you to exploreyour future, whoever you are, wherever youare and shape your own response.

The future of the world is urban. Because ofthe rapid modernisation of countries such asBrazil, China, India and Turkey, we are seeingthe largest rural-urban migration in history.How that urban development happens willlock-in behaviour for decades to come, so itneeds to be sustainable. It is no exaggeration

to say that the global race for sustainabilitywill be won or lost in our cities.

Return to contents

The goal is not transport, but accessibility

more productivity, more mobility, more

beauty in one day.

> Sue Zielinski, MD, Sustainable Mobility& Accessibility Research & Transformation,University of Michigan

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1. Overview

You can use this section to introduce yourcolleagues, business partners and clientsto the issues.

2. Whats your destination? Fourscenarios for urban mobility in 2040

Want to explore what the future may hold

and test your strategy? Our scenarios Planned-opolis, Sprawl-ville, Renew-abad,and Communi-city - are four possible visionsof urban mobility in the world of 2040. Theycan be a very effective tool for understandinghow complex factors may play out andshape very different futures, challengingand inspiring organisations to plan for moreeffective solutions. They are designed tostrengthen strategy and policy, advocatelong-term thinking and build collaborativevisions for a sustainable future.

3. What can you do? Six solutionsfor sustainable urban mobility

If you are motivated to bring innovation intoyour strategic planning, these are actionsyou can take now to help create thesustainable urban mobility systems ofthe future. This section includes practicalexamples of how these solutions are alreadybeing put into practice around the world;from integrated cities to intelligent trafficsystems, automotive technology, car-freedays and virtual meetings.

how can youuse this toolkit?Megacities on the Moveis designed to be a practicaltoolkit which can help public bodies, companies andcivil society organisations develop strategies which

will enable people to live and travel more sustainablyin the major cities of the 21st century. It aims to helpyou understand the key long-term issues better, applythem to your own thinking, and inspire innovativesolutions. The toolkit contains four sections and a setof scenario animations.

1. overview > how can you use this toolkit?

4. Plan the future now: How to runa workshop using the scenarios

One of the best ways to get engaged inthe challenges you face is to organisea workshop. This section gives specificguidance on how to plan a workshop onthe future of urban mobility, using the fourscenarios as a starting point to exploreissues relevant to you and develop a strategy

and action plan. In May and June 2010Forum for the Future ran similar workshopsin Mumbai and Istanbul you can seethe highlights from this process which maygive you ideas for your own workshop.

Scenario animations:Bringing the future to life

We have brought the scenarios to life infour short, vivid and compelling animationsexamining mobility challenges and solutionsas we follow a day in the life of an ordinary

woman in each of the four worlds.Animations give a snapshot of each scenarioand can be a very effective way of engagingyour audience in the subject.



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So Paulo

whats ahead? factors shapingthe future of urban mobilityWhat does the future hold for large cities of the 21stcentury? We can be more or less certain about howcertain factors will play out. What we arecertain of

is that the responses to these factors will be criticalin determining the nature of mobility in our cities.

what can we be morecertain about?

Climate change

The scientific consensus is that climatechange is a reality and that it is extremelylikely to be the result of human activity. Weare already seeing the effects: we continue to

break temperature records; extreme weatherevents are increasingly common; and themelting of Arctic ice may now be irreversible.Even if we manage to take early global actionto decarbonise our economies, the pollutionwe emit now will stay in the atmosphere unless deliberately removed by humanaction for decades.2

Climate change will affect key aspects ofour lives and will have profound impactson our cities in particular. Heatwaves orflash flooding, for example, will impact the

comfort, cost and reliability of daily urban life.But climate change will also affect the vastareas, both near and far, that cities rely onfor supplies such as water, food or energy.Ultimately, climate change could affect citiesbasic ability to function.

Climate change will change the game,

bringing forward the first predictable

industrial revolution.

> Paul Dickinson, Executive Chairman,Carbon Disclosure Project

Demographic trends

We can be reasonably certain aboutpopulation increases over the next 30years: from 6.8 billion people in 2010 toapproximately 8.8 billion in 2040.3 Thisgrowth wont be evenly distributed: mostof it will occur in the cities of Africa, China,India and Latin America. China will also bedealing with an ageing population, as will

most of Europe and North America.These changes will put increasing pressureon mobility in cities, and make it moredifficult to ensure a growing and ageingurban population can access affordablemobility solutions such as public transportand other essential services.

In an optimistic scenario, cities will have

planned to create an urban environment

for people. They will make their planningand infrastructure investments based on

accessibility for people.

> Nancy Kete, former Director, EMBARQ

Resource constraints

This growing global population also hasan increasing taste for resource-intensivegoods such as meat and cars. The resultis exploding global demand for water andland for crops, livestock, domestic useand biofuels; fossil fuels to power transport

or production; and minerals, metals andforests for manufacturing.

All of these resources are already heavilyexploited, and many face the possibility ofsevere depletion or even exhaustion in thefirst half of the century. Scarcity will lead tocompetition and high, volatile resource prices it seems likely that the age of cheap oiland cheap energy is over, for example. Thiswill have a knock-on effect on the cost andavailability of transport and other goods andservices essential to everyday needs in cities.Urban societies can respond in different

ways: through technological innovation,behaviour change, economic development,migration patterns and more.2

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, http://www.ipcc.ch/, The Royal Society, http://royalsociety.org/climate-change/.3

UN Department of Social and Economic Affairs,World Population Prospects, 2008 revision: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp2008/index.htm(accessed on 24September 2010).

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Energy supply and demand

It is highly uncertain how societies willrespond to the exploding demand yetstagnating supply of energy, especially oil.But it is clear the energy mix thats in place

in 2040 will determine what types of mobilitysystems we have in our cities. For example,if there is a large-scale shift to renewableenergy, this could favour electric, solar orhydrogen-powered vehicles. Or if energyis expensive and inaccessible to most, thiscould favour mass transit over personalmotorised transport. Peoples lifestylechoices, such as opting for virtual servicesinstead of travel, could directly affect energydemand levels in cities too.

By 2040, the grid will be different: we

will be burning electrons rather thanhydrocarbons. Those electrons will

be greener, so there will be a lot more

renewable energy generation.

> Gordon Feller, Director of UrbanInnovations at Cisco Systems

Resource use

Mobility is essentially about the abilityto access goods, services, people andinformation. Therefore the future responseto resource scarcity will have a hugeimpact on urban mobility and quality of life.

If there is strategic investment in energy,food and water supply infrastructure,for example, cities will be better able toensure their citizens can access essentialgoods and services. If there are inadequateresponses to resource scarcity, life inmegacities of the future will be tough,with rapid population growth but too fewresources to meet peoples demands.

Global economy

Economic growth creates a spiral of greaterdemand for mobility, and greater demandfor goods and services. Providing moregoods and services requires more transport,

support and staff; increased wealth allowspeople to travel more and encourages moreexpensive modes of transport such as thecar; and growth in property prices leads tolonger commutes.

We have come to take growth for granted,but could resource limitations or climatechange bring the seemingly endlessexpansion cycle to an end? Or, might lifestylechanges alter how we think about growthand wellbeing, affecting everything fromconsumption patterns to modal choices?

In places like Istanbul and Mumbai, with

large populations with rapid economic

growth, it is absolutely key that they

focus on restraining growth in vehicle

use. Its arguably the hardest and the

most important challenge confronting

these cities.

> Dan Sperling, author of Two Billion Cars:Driving Towards Sustainability

Climate change responses

The response to climate change is likely todeeply affect how cities of the future look,feel and operate. The Megacities on theMove scenarios all show a different balance

of measures to adapt to climate change andreduce further emissions. For example, in thecarefully planned and centralised world ofPlanned-opolis, streets are lined with carbonscrubbers that suck carbon dioxide out ofthe atmosphere, and neighbourhoods aredesigned from scratch to maximise naturalcooling. In contrast, the cities of Sprawl-ville are designed by the rich for the rich,who effectively live in a city within the city,protected from the floods and heat to whichthe poor are exposed.

GovernanceThere are big gaps in global governancesystems on major issues including energy,food, water and climate change. If these arenot improved, or if governance deteriorates,our countries and cities will be morevulnerable to external shocks. City-levelgovernance is also critical, particularly whenit comes to mobility for example, to developwell-designed public transport systems,maintain order and support the integrationof various mobility networks.

It is highly uncertain how the quality,effectiveness and structure of governancesystems will unfold. Different approachesto governance could profoundly affectmobility in cities from tightly controlledand networked mobility systems on one endof the spectrum, to a chaotic proliferationof mobility solutions in a world with poorgovernance on the other.

Governments make a lot of money on

fuel duty, and this would be displaced

by electrons if electric vehicles were

mainstreamed so there will have to

be a profound shift in terms of howgovernments generate income, and

structure tax and incentives.

> Tom Briggs, Vice President, Policy andCommunications, BP Alternative Energy

Social structures

Traditionally, most societies have favouredthe family as the core unit, often withstrong communities surrounding the family.These communities were typically moreself-sufficient and had lower levels of

mobility. Today, many cities are becomingmore atomised spaces, with a huge influxof diverse groups and more emphasis onindividuals. This could spell the declineof traditional community structures andan emergence of new types of communityfor the urban age more networked,flexible, and mobile, but also moretemporary. Equally, there is a possibilitythat we might see a reassertion of traditionalcommunity and family structures in thecities of the future, whether as a backlashagainst too much individualism and socialfragmentation, or as a result of resource and

climate constraints.

1. overview > whats ahead?

what are we less certain about?



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High speed train

what can you do?six solutions forsustainable urban mobilityLooking 30 years into the future, the challenges and the solutions can seem a long way off.But everyone involved in urban mobility can takeaction today, whether you are a government, cityauthority, urban planner, transport provider, in

business or the public sector.

Want to see how this is happeningin the real world?

Please see section 3 for more detailsand practical examples of howthese six solutions are already beingdesigned, put into practice, or scaledup around the world: from integratedcities to intelligent traffic systems,biofuels to battery technology,car-free days to travel-free virtualmeetings. Download it from:www.forumforthefuture.org/projects/megacities-on-the-move

4Daniel Sperling and Deborah Gordon, Two Billion

Cars, Oxford University Press, New York, 2009.

1. Integrate, integrate, integrate

Transport, urban planning, business, public

services, energy and food supply can nolonger be considered in isolation. Together,we need to create integrated mobilitysystems that will provide people with choice,flexibility and seamless connectivity whetherthey are travelling from one place to anotheror accessing the things they need virtually.

2. Make the poor a priority

Mobility systems must work for rich andpoor alike, to ensure everyone has access togoods, services and job opportunities. Citiesalready have many people on lower incomes

and this trend will only increase. Tailoredmobility solutions must be designed to meettheir needs.

1. overview > what can you do?

3. Go beyond the car

Current growth rates in car ownership are

simply unsustainable: there are already onebillion cars in the world, projected to growto two billion within a few decades.4 Weneed alternative ways of getting around,and we need to design for people, not cars.We will need urban neighbourhoods withthe infrastructure to serve local communitiesand dense developments that prevent furthersprawl, are easy to walk around, and provideaccess to key goods and services.

4. Switch on to IT networks

There is enormous potential for information

technology to reduce the need for physicalmovement by enabling urban dwellers toaccess more and more services online. UsingIT networks to connect and coordinate carsand public transport can also help reducetraffic congestion and accident risks.

5. Refuel our vehicles

As oil becomes more scarce, expensive and

a security risk, we will need to implementgreater energy efficiency measures, aswell as shift to powering our vehicles withrenewable, low-carbon fuel sources. We willneed significant investment in battery andfuel technology to seize this opportunity andtake alternative energy-powered vehiclesto scale over the next few decades. Mostvehicle technology experts agree thatadvanced technologies also have enormouspotential to improve fuel efficiency.

6. Change peoples behaviour

Many of our future challenges are shaped bypeoples values, behaviour and preferences.We need to think about ways to influencemass behaviour and social norms in positiveways to promote low-carbon, healthier urbanlifestyles. Future leading cities will plan todayto influence lifestyles rather than simplyrelying on additional road infrastructure andmodes of transport.



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Energy > Centralised grids rely on gas-fired power stations and carbon captureand storage.

Resources > Strict planning and rationingensure resources are used as efficientlyas possible.

Economy > A strong, regulated economyinvests in technology and infrastructure.

Climate change > Cities are replannedas extreme measures are taken todecarbonise the world.

Governance > One-size-fits-allgovernance is effective, but reducesfreedom.

Social structures > Society is fairerbut less individualistic.

Values > It is a hard-working but high-

trust world.

Business > Big business is everywhere,and even governs some cities.

Technology > We live in a hi-tech worldof integrated systems and virtualisation.

mobility

Mobility choices are constrained. Peoplehave allowed ICT and the advent of virtualcity spaces to replace a large portionof physical travel. Many cities ban carsin central areas to meet carbon targets.Personal vehicles are available only tothe wealthy, so the average citizen movesaround the city using tightly controlled andnetworked public transport systems, and

by walking or cycling through strictly non-motorised zones.

urban form

Because energy is very expensive, citiesare highly managed, with limited personalmobility and efficient public transportnetworks. In some cases, cities aredownsized or even designed and builtfrom scratch. Floating cities are alsotaking off in coastal areas as a key climateadaptation strategy.

scenario summary:

planned-opolisIn a world of fossil fuels and expensiveenergy, the only solution is tightly

planned and controlled urban transport.

1. overview > scenario 1: planned-opolis

highlights

Feeling hot? > People keep cool under theten million trees the city has planted.

Whats on the menu? > The Global FoodCouncil can tell you it decides what food isgrown in which region.

Need to get away? > Millions of people

now live in floating cities and millions moreescape daily to virtual cities like London 2.0.



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Energy > Oil production peaked around2030 but transport still uses fossil fuel particularly gas and focuses onefficiency.

Resources > Resource scarcity haslowered the quality of life for the urbanmasses in this elite-controlled world.

Economy > The global economy is

stagnant, susceptible to protectionismand shrinking supply chains.

Climate change > Short-term thinkingrules as people focus on adapting andprotecting their property.

Governance > Cities are governed by andfor the elites they maintain just enoughof the basic infrastructure to minimisepublic disorder.

Social structures > Its a less equal world

where the informal economy prospers.

Values > Tension is growing as peoplelose faith in consumerism and the worldis increasingly polarised into religious andethnic extremes.

Business > Business is powerful withan expanded role in society as a result ofless public service provision but it is lessaccountable.

Technology > There are efficiency gainsbut few major breakthroughs.

mobility

In urban areas, the car-dominant modelpersists, although the average personalvehicle is now an ultra-efficient hybrid ordiesel car. As the poor are increasinglyunable to afford the daily car commute,urban ghetto areas spread in the city core

and informal paratransit5

services springup to serve community needs. People beginto alter their commute to address dailyneeds: nomad businessmen sit in traffic inarmoured vehicles, working while movingslowly from meeting to meeting; many ofthe cars bought by the emerging globalmiddle classes become driveway trophiesrather than a practical means of transport,as people return to buses and bicycles.

urban form

The city is a great fragmented sprawl.There are huge, low-density suburbs,freeways to connect them, and commuter

jams. In the periphery of the city thereare numerous failed developments,built too far from public transport andtherefore unaffordable to urban commutersnow that oil prices are high. They either

become ghetto areas for poorer peopleor are reborn as local communities tryingto provide their own services.

highlights

Wheres my car? > Everywhere! Cars arestillin favour and still the ultimate status symbol.

Dont like the jam? > Its a 24-hour city of never-ending congestion.

Fill up the tank? > Businessmen getaround in tank-like armoured cars toprotect themselves.

scenario summary:

sprawl-villeThe city is dominated by fossil fuel-powered cars.The elite still gets around, but most urbandwellers face poor transport infrastructure.

5An alternative mode of flexible passenger

transportation that does not follow fixed routesor schedules. Typically mini-buses are used toprovide paratransit service, but share taxis and

jitneys are also important providers. For moreinformation, see the Wikipedia entry on paratransit:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paratransit

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mobility

On city streets, many more personalvehicles are electric or hybrid, and electricrail and buses are the top choice for publictransport. Energy continues to be relativelyexpensive, so people often switch betweenpersonal vehicles, public transport, walkingand cycling. The infrastructure has beenmassively upgraded in many cities to

encourage this. Sophisticated augmentedreality services reduce the need for physicaltravel, and almost every aspect of transportis guided by technology.

urban form

The age of urban sprawl is over: cities arebecoming more densely populated asthey set boundaries for growth. City stateshave re-emerged as powerful forces tobe reckoned with. Neighbourhoods areorganised around hubs providing integratedservices from in-house energy generationto vehicle charging points to community

centres and flexible offices.

highlights

Waiting for the train? > There are ultra-high-speed rail links connecting every suburb.

Drive off into the sunset? > Solar scootersare one of the popular ways to get around.

Whos in charge? > The city council controlsour lives to keep us safe and comfortable and we like it.

scenario summary 3

renew-abadThe world has turned to alternative energy,and high-tech, clean, well-planned transporthelps everyone get around.

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mobility

Personal and individualised mobility isimportant. Modes of transport proliferateand people move about in a range of smallelectric vehicles souped-up bikes, coveredscooters, pod-cars and so on. Customisationis rife. Some people even build their vehicleslocally from kits, using open-source designs,local materials and home-brewed biofuels.The roads look chaotic with so many vehicle

types and so much personalised transport but somehow it all works, through smartuse of information technology to avoidcollisions and optimise routes.

urban form

Power has devolved to individuals andcommunities; cities have become moreinformal and sometimes chaotic centresof creativity. For example, community-organised vertical and small-scalehorticulture has flourished, with balconies,roofs and the sides of buildings givenover to growing food.

highlights

Plant-powered public transport? >Biobuses are one of the most popularcheap ways to get around the city.

DIY everything? > 3D printers allowanyone to be a homegrown manufacturer

from furniture to fashion.

Where did our centre go? > There is nocity centre any more, everyone has theirown very different neighbourhood.

scenario summary 4

communi-cityThe world has turned to alternative energy, andtransport is highly personalised with a huge varietyof transport modes competing for road space.

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perspectives from our partners

Imagination in energy

It is our conviction that mobility is central

to the delivery of wider human benefits ofeconomic development, social interactionand freedom to explore our surroundings.However, we believe also that these positivebenefits are entirely dependent on theextent to which mobility is both safe andsustainable. The FIA Foundations work from promoting fuel efficiency in the worldscars to working for the greatest possiblesafety on our roads aims to ensure that it is.

The specific challenges in addressing anincreasingly urban and intensively populated

planet are complex. However, they centrearound our ability to be efficient in our useof energy and imaginative in how we sourceit. Of equal importance will be our capacityto work together across the globe to findcommon and coordinated solutions. Ourglobal response has not been impressiveso far. To the extent that this is due to a lackof information and shared understanding,our hope is that this study will cast someuseful light into that darkness.

Sheila WatsonDirector of Environment, FIA Foundation

Transformation through technology

Given the rate of change, our world will be

a very different place by 2040. Engineeringand technological innovations will transformurban living in particular the way wecommunicate and share information, asthe convergence of internet and mobiletechnology becomes a reality. Expectmobile networks to extend beyond humancommunication; everything that could benefitfrom a wireless network is likely to have one;and connectivity will combine with energy,water management, transport and healthas more services are delivered online.

Vodafone has participated in Megacitieson the Move because we believe we havea role to play in shaping solutions for thefuture. This project builds upon the issuesidentified in our Future Agenda project(www.futureagenda.org) and supportsthe work we have already done in otherareas where we believe our productsand services can help others make adifference, for example Carbon Connections(www.vodafone.com/carbonconnections).

Although cities themselves have aremarkable ability to innovate, it is difficult

for urban planners to keep up with thepace of change. This project is a valuableresource for city authorities, businessesand policy makers, to allow them to thinkbeyond traditional solutions and considerdifferent approaches.

Nicola WoodheadGroup Environment Manager, Vodafone

A vision for Istanbul, Mumbai and megacities around the world

Both Mumbai and Istanbul have grownphenomenally in the past two decades,both geographically and in population.With this growth as a given, the scenariosfor both cities presented an elaborateimagination of our world 30 years fromnow, charted on the two crucial elementsof our future in this world: fuel dominanceand governance structure.

The future scenarios approach providesa unique opportunity to plan for the long-term and bring it into the present. EMBARQ

partnered with Forum for the Future onworkshops in Istanbul and Mumbai (readmore about these in section 4 Plan thefuture now).We believe it is urgent to abandon manyof the current planning practices andmove to less energy intensive options inpreparation for 2040. Our hope is thatthe scenarios exercise will catalyse notonly a discussion of transport and urbandevelopment in Istanbul and Mumbai, butalso contribute to the discussion of energypolicies nationally and around the world.

Sibel BulayDirector, EMBARQ Turkey

Madhav PaiDirector, EMBARQ India

Clayton LaneActing Director, EMBARQ

Want to plan your own workshop?

Get a how-to guide for organising a

sustainable urban mobility workshopand find out more about Istanbuland Mumbai in section 4: Planyour future now. Download it from:www.forumforthefuture.org/projects/megacities-on-the-move

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four scenarios forurban mobility in 2040The future is likely to be dramatically different fromtoday. To get the future we want, we need to be betterat understanding what it might look like, what will

shape it, and what is already happening today thatcould affect it.

Scenarios are explorations of alternativefutures. They are a tool to challenge, inspireand support individuals and organisationsto plan ahead. Scenarios are designed tostrengthen strategy and policy, advocatelong-term thinking and build a collaborativevision for a sustainable future.

Scenarios are not predictions. We do notthink that any one scenario is more likelythan the other, nor is our intention toprescribe one scenario as best case orworst case. All scenarios should presentelements of a possible future, and presenta realistic combination of positive andnegative developments.

The Megacities on the Move scenariosare intended to present plausible futuredevelopments, describing the challengesand opportunities of personal mobility in

large cities in 2040. Each scenario coversa range of issues and addresses a numberof critical questions, including:

In order to create the scenarios, we wentthrough a number of key phases:

Why 2040?

We chose to examine the future of mobility in2040 because urban infrastructure has a long

life, so setting a 30 year timeline providesenough time to plan for and deliver a newgeneration of sustainable mobility solutions.

Horizon-scanning research

As part of this phase we undertook deskresearch as well as structured interviews withmore than 40 experts involved in differentaspects of urban mobility from around theworld including stakeholders in the twocities we had chosen to test the scenarios,Istanbul and Mumbai. Our aim was to identifycurrent forces and uncertainties around

urban mobility, as well as get intervieweesperspectives on key factors and trendsshaping the future of mobility.

How might our mobility needs andaspirations change?

How might sustainability challengessuch as resource constraints, climatechange impacts and social (in)equalityimpact personal mobility in cities?

What might be the modal mix of

transport solutions? Which of our mobility needs mightbe met in ways other than transport(e.g. through virtual services or urbanplanning solutions)?

Scenario planning

Based on the key factors and trends wethen developed scenarios showing differentpossible outcomes for mobility in cities in theyear 2040. Using these scenarios, we alsocreated outlines of city-specific scenarios for

Istanbul and Mumbai, suggesting what mighthappen locally in each city within the contextof the global-level scenarios.

City workshops

We conducted 2-day workshops in Istanbuland Mumbai to validate the scenarios,identify relevant challenges and opportunitiesfor the local context, as well as short,medium and long-term solutions that couldbe implemented. In particular we askedpeople to critique the scenarios, and tell uswhat they thought were the most plausible

outcomes and trends.

Partner workshops

We also conducted workshops for theproject partners in an effort to explorethe implications of the scenarios for theirorganisations, and identify options forfuture strategy responses.

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what are scenarios? how were the scenarios created?



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Fossil fuels dominant

Alternative energy dominant

Topdown

Bottomup

planned-opolis sprawl-ville

renew-abad communi-city

key variables:energy sources andglobal governance

Amongst the uncertainties, we identified two as the most critical ininfluencing future mobility solutions: energy supply and demand,

and governance systems. Our research indicated that these are themost uncertain trends and have the greatest potential impact on thefuture of urban mobility. We identified two very different outcomes foreach, and used this to construct the axes: the overall framework forthe scenarios that defines the key differences between the scenarios.

Axis 1: what kind of energy mix will be dominant?

Fossil fuels dominant:The world is still running on fossil fuels.Although there are significant constraints in supply, a mix of mitigatingfactors including efficiency gains, clean-up mechanisms, andsupply augmentation through different sources such as shale gas

or tar sands help maintain fossil fuel dominance.Alternative energy dominant: Alternative energy sources havebeen scaled up and are much more affordable. Conventional oilsupply has peaked. Simultaneously, a mix of cost and technologybreakthroughs in alternative energy generation spurs innovationthat changes the energy mix.

Axis 2: what kind of global governance frameworkwill we have?

Top down:Global governance frameworks are strong and wellcoordinated. A convergence of opinion on key issues such as

climate change has led to the develop-ment of stronger institutionsand binding frameworks, and a more collaborative world order.

Bottom up:Decentralised governance solutions are preferredto global-level action. Trade relations are more regionalised, andinnovation happens in local power hubs. The world is focused onself-sufficiency, resilience and localised solutions.

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scenario 1

planned-opolisIn a world of fossil fuels and expensive energy,the only solution is tightly planned and controlledurban transport.

2015A global climate deal is reached.A framework of global cuts for 50%(to 1990 levels) by 2050 is agreed,with interim targets.

2018Most new coal and gas power stations haveCCS, with funds supporting this technologyin developing countries.

2020Globetech, a major multinational company,bans flying for business meetings andsees share prices rise sharply in thefollowing years.

2023A high profile nuclear storage shelter leakdue to a rushed project further delaysnuclear large scale generation.

2025City Corp takes over the managementof Laos after a governance failure.

2027Plans for new floating cities approvedin Bangladesh and the Netherlands.

2035Global Food Council gets newpowers to control farming.

timeline

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Energy supply

Centralised grids rely on gas-firedpower stations and carbon captureand storage.

A high carbon price makes energy veryexpensive, but a lack of viable alternativesmeans fossil fuels in par ticular shale gasand methane hydrates still dominate.Investment has been focused on reducingenergy demand and increasing efficiency.Nuclear energy has not scaled as expected,held back by technical delays, escalatingcosts and a shortage of skills. Veryefficient carbon capture and storage (CCS)technology is necessary to keep carbonemissions down.

Resource use

Strict planning and rationing ensureresources are used as efficientlyas possible.

There is strong reliance on technologicalsolutions and centralised planning toovercome resource shortages. Water iscommonly rationed. To maximise efficiencythe Global Food Council dictates whatcrops can be grown where in the world.Consumption of energy-intensive meatis restricted. Tight monitoring of rawmaterials such as metals, wood or paper,ensures that resources are reusedand recycled. Biotechnology andnanotechnology have helped engineersand scientists develop new materialswith exceptional physical properties.

The economy

A strong, regulated economyinvests in technology andinfrastructure.

The economy in 2040 is quite strong, andglobal trade continues to grow, although itis tightly regulated and sky-high oil pricesrestrict the sort of goods that can betraded. Import tariffs and subsidies havebeen reduced. The US, China and Russiadominate the latter due to its land, oil,coal and forest resources. Spending ontechnology and R&D, especially on energyefficiency measures, is very high. Growthhas allowed significant investment in newinfrastructure, including large urban projects.


Cities are replanned as extrememeasures are taken to decarbonisethe world.

The world relies on geo-engineering. Carbonscrubbers that take CO2 directly out ofthe air are a common sight on city streets.Many cities with high food risk have beendeliberately downsized and populationsmoved to new cities designed from scratch.Floating city technologies pioneered by theDutch have spread to other rich city areassuch as Hong Kong. Cities are re-engineeredfor natural cooling tree-planting, greenroofs and natural ventilation are common.

Governance

One-size-fits-all governance iseffective but reduces freedoms.

Global governance is well-coordinated andeffective. There are agreements on climatechange, displaced people and globalagriculture. Global agreements are quicklyimplemented at a national level. Technologyplays a significant role in supportinggovernance. Cities are often run byspecialist, city-governing companies. Thesecompanies bid for very lucrative long-termcontracts and may run dozens of major cities

worldwide. This means that ef fective policiesdeveloped in one city can quickly spreadaround the world, but it also means that verydifferent cities tend to be run in the sameway, despite local differences. This leads tocomplaints about loss of national sovereigntyand individual freedoms.

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factors shaping mobility



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Social trends

A fairer but lessindividualistic society.

Inequality between countries has decreased

as the global economy has rebalanced.Inequality within countries has alsodecreased, though in most societies thereis still a persistent underclass and elite.Individual freedoms have been eroded.Societies tend to be less diverse than inthe past. Civil society is less vibrant andthere is less protest and political violence.

The business landscape

Big business is everywhere,and even governs some cities.

Big business is thriving in the globalised

economy, operating global brands, withlocalised distribution and supply chainsdue to the high price of oil. Business playsa major role in government and in peopleslives. For example, City Corp is a globalfirm that specialises in governing cities(transport, energy, healthcare and so on)as efficiently as possible. It uses computermodels to design integrated systems thatcan be adjusted and applied to any largecity in the world. More and more servicesare delivered virtually.

Human values

A hard-working buthigh-trust world.

People rely on new technology to solve

problems. They are also, in general, veryaccepting of government or businessintervention in their lives, and look to largeinstitutions to provide security and stabilityin an unpredictable world. There is a strongfeeling of international solidarity.

The car is no longer seen as a status symbolby many. Right across the world, peopleare very willing to participate in coordinatedmass transit systems. The 9-to-5 no longerexists since we are always logged on,although we also work more. In somemegacities, alienation and depression isa big issue due to much virtualisation,work fatigue, and the fragmentation oftraditional social units. Special interestgroups are popular among older people,calling for a renaissance of low-tech,face-to-face connectivity in cities.

The role of technology

A hi-tech world of integratedsystems and virtualisation.

Technology penetrates every aspect of life.

The natural environment is continuouslymonitored. Many people, especially theyoung, live much of their lives throughavatars online personas working andforming relationships, learning, seekingadvice and spending leisure time. Thismeans there is less need to travel. Smarttechnology is everywhere and helps tointegrate diverse systems, such as energy,food and waste. Most vehicles communicatewith each other, can drive themselves,and use augmented reality technology.

continued



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mobilityDemand for mobility is down, carownership has reduced and transportsystems are highly integrated.

Transport in most cities is highly regulated.Some cities have become completelycar-free, others only allow electric cars

and the majority have strict standards onfuel economy for any internal combustionengine or hybrid vehicles. Car parks havedisappeared from many urban areas,replaced by houses or urban farms.Commuters apply for a 15-minute travel slotif they need to travel to work.

People are told when to travel and bywhat mode. Small vehicles are likely to beelectric, using energy from centralised grids,while larger vehicles such as coaches andtrucks are more likely to use liquid fuel. Carownership is low, though the rich are stilldriving cars and paying the high price.Transport systems have evolved to be highlyintegrated across the different modes,including walking and cycling, inter-city traveland consequently also transport systems innearby cities. Any delays or breakdowns candisrupt transport over huge areas. Peoplehave calorie cards that can be topped upand spent on anything, including differentmodes of transport, with a high-energy modeusing more calories than a low-energy mode.

Smart cars ensure that driving behaviour is

smooth and safe and keeps traffic movingas much as possible. In the most advancedcities, mass transit and individual transitbecome blurred: an individual can drive a carto a mass transit route and join a computer-controlled convoy, effectively becoming apart of the mass transit and surrenderingcontrol of the vehicle, then leave the convoyagain when convenient.

Transport is treated by city governments asone part of a functioning urban system thatincludes energy systems, water, waste, food,distribution and so on. City governmentslook for solutions that can integrate thedifferent subsystems most efficiently, forexample combining public transport withfreight transport or energy storage.

The high prices of oil and carbon meanthat all transport modes are expensive,

except for walking and cycling. Alongwith the tight regulation of transport andadvances in ICT this means that manypeople, particularly younger people, livetheir lives online working, shopping,consuming and socialising. As a result,personal mobility is reduced but freightmobility (delivering products that wereordered online) has increased.

urban formHuge urban regions are transformedby system-planning, virtualisationand a generational divide.

Megacity regions in some parts of the worldhouse more than a hundred million people.Cities are tightly regulated and carefully

planned. Many new cities have been createdand slum-dwellers forcibly resettled. Newsuburbs have often been designed aroundthe electric bike, not the car, with narrowstreets that blend walking space with bikespace. Cities are more formalised placesthan they used to be. Informal activity, suchas unplanned building or unlicensed markets,is not tolerated.

City form is heavily influenced byvirtualisation, with a greater blending ofsocial classes and more people living urbanlifestyles far away from the city. People canlive in one city but be resident in anotherlocation of their choice, some of which onlyexist in the virtual world, such as London 2.Cities are governed increasingly as complexsystems (integrating energy, transport, water,waste and so on), to maximise efficient useof resources. Activity movement of trafficand people in particular is continuallytracked.

There is a significant generational gapbetween younger and older people, as theyoung adapt more quickly to living their lives

in virtual spaces. The over-60s dominatethe physical city, while younger peopledominate the virtual city. This means that thewhole urban physical environment, including

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2015Global climate change deal fails.

2017Oil prices spike to US $200.

2020Three month traffic jam in Indiaends in tradegy.

2027Wealth gap reaches historic high.

2031Global oil supplies peak.

2035Beijing and Singapore ban non-electriccars in city centres.

203638Global food production falls under thecombined pressures of a biofuels rush.

A 2 year global level famine occurs.

scenario 2

sprawl-villeThe city is dominated by fossil fuel-powered cars.The elite still gets around, but most urban dwellersface poor transport infrastructure.

timeline

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Energy supply

Oil production peaked around 2030but transport still uses fossil fuel particularly gas and focuseson efficiency.

Electricity grids rely on fossil fuels primarilycoal and natural gas for over half of theirenergy, with nuclear and renewable energyproviding the rest. With demand downdue to energy efficiency and a shrinkingeconomy, supply is generally more reliablethan it has been in recent decades. Rapidadvances in engine efficiency (forced byregulation in developed countries) meanthat most vehicles still use oil-based fuels,despite the fact that in 2040 there are somany more cars in the world than in 2010.Fuel comes from unconventional sourcessuch as tar sands and gas-to-liquids, butan increasing proportion comes frombiofuels. Vehicle use is expensive andexcludes poorer people from using theircars regularly. Growth in electric vehicleshas been limited due to high costs ofdeveloping the necessary new infrastructure.

Resource use

Resource shortages and theensuing scramble have a directimpact on human development.

The market is only now starting to realisethat oil supply has peaked. Biofuel cropsare big business, resulting in uncontrolledencroachment on both forest and croplands.

As well as causing high food prices, this hasled to serious deforestation, in turn affectingecosystems and livelihoods of poor people.

Add in the fact that water is in short supply,and it is not surprising that there has been asignificant increase in deaths from famine inthe last few decades. Home-grown food isbooming across the world, in cities as wellas rural areas and transport of water by roadand rail across vast distances to megacities(for example from Cambodia to south China)is commonplace.

The economy

Global stagnation, protectionismand shrinking supply chains.

After a period of moderate growth up to theearly 2030s, the global economy, dominatedby China and the US, is now flat at best,with some major economies including Chinateetering on the edge of recession. The main

cause of this is the decline in oil supplies andprice shocks, but other resource constraintshave taken their toll. The economy is rapidlybecoming more protectionist, with bilateralagreements and export bans proliferating.The transport supply chain is still global butreduced, with air travel shrunk by high fuelprices, and increased shipping costs drivingshorter supply chains.


A focus on adaptation and protectingassets in the short term.

Climate impacts are occurring roughly in

line with predictions, but the elites (nationsor groups) prefer to protect themselvesrather than taking global action. Adaptationmeasures tend to be local and reactive, forexample building new sea walls after floodingor abandoning dust-bowl agricultural regions.Land and assets are exploited for short-termprofits and then abandoned when exhausted.This tendency is amplified by the ability ofthe rich to shield themselves from climatechange impacts inside air-conditioneddomes, malls and vehicles. Corporate actionis significant, trying to protect supply chainsand markets. A new sector of the economyhas emerged whose business is globalclimate change response strategy.

2. whats your destination? > sprawlville


Governance

A global shift towards moreauthoritarian power.

Short-termism is the rule. There is little

international collaboration on energy orclimate concerns. Emissions reductiontargets exist in developed countries but areincreasingly circumvented. Nation-statesare becoming more authoritarian in theface of fuel and food shocks, spawning anumber of violent changes of government.The European Union is intact but has notexpanded further. Cities are governed byand for elites, but this includes avoidingunrest and keeping the wheels of businessturning, so basic transport infrastructure ismaintained. Corruption has increased, withthe potential for profiteering from energy andfood issues.



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Social structures

A less equal world, where the informaleconomy prospers.

This is an oligarchs and black marketeers

world. Global middle class prosperity in the2020s proved a false dawn and inequalityis up. Democratic institutions are on theback foot and power goes to those whograb resources and political influence. Oilcompanies retain their influence, muchas bankers did after the financial crisis ofthe 2010s, with the industry dominatingimportant cities such as Washington DC.The informal economy flourishes in theface of high unemployment, taxes andimport costs, with local and home-grownproduce and even organic waste (as abiofuels feedstock) traded both on thestreets and the internet.

Human values

Polarisation of ideology and aloss of faith in consumerism.

The economic difficulties of the past decade

have contributed to two notable trends. Firstis the polarisation of political attitudes, withsome sectors of society calling for predatoryenergy policies or draconian austeritymeasures to allow a return to business asusual, while others seize on the new crisis asa chance to reform capitalism and reverseglobalisation. The polarisation is particularlycritical in the USA, where some statesthreaten secession. Revolutionary Marxismhas returned as a major political force.The second trend is a resurgence in ethnictension and a return to religion and traditionalvalues as people lose faith in consumerism.

continued


Business is powerful with anexpanded role in society as a resultof less public service provision but it is also less accountable.

Business plays a central role in thisworld, stepping in when government orcommunities fail, or even usurping power.Most of the largest and most powerfulbusinesses in the world are privately owned.This makes them less accountable, whichthey often counter with major philanthropyand civic investment programmes. Thereare huge opportunities for entrepreneurs.Expanding areas of business include: coal,coal-to-liquids and gas-to-liquids, biofuels,urban gardening, warehousing (as just-in-time is rolled back), domestic service,grid renewables, nuclear, military, security,and the scrapping or modifying of vehicles.On the other hand, airlines, internationaltourism, hotels, cars and luxury goods(except for top-end billionaire yachts, whichremain popular with the biofuel barons)are all in decline.


Efficiency gains but fewmajor breakthroughs.

Technological developments have focused

on efficiency gains. This is most notable withthe internal combustion engine, but canalso be seen with solar energy and a hostof others. For a long time there have beenno major breakthrough technologies thathave changed the world in the way theinternet did. Technology development tendsto be driven most by corporate R&D and thepublic, especially those with few resources,struggle to access much of it.



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mobilityCities are locked into car-use thoughcongestion is rife, leading to a spateof innovative solutions.

Car ownership has grown hugely, especiallyin middle-income countries such as Indiaand China. Local politicians have responded

to the rise of new middle class car ownerswith road-building trophy projects. However,the latent demand before 2030 was suchthat new roads became congestedimmediately, and many of the new vehiclesare only used sporadically. Vehicles aredesigned for occasional use, and build inalternative functions while they are stationary,such as storage or energy generation.Some are designed to attach to buildingsand act as extra living or storage space.

Rush hours spread as people move theircommute to escape the congestion. Anew phenomenon is the nomadbusinessman, who may spend much ofthe day working online in a secure vehiclewhile his driver takes him slowly throughthe jams to meetings. Vehicles providingmany of the services an office mightprovide, such as IT help, refreshments,toilets and meeting facilities, can be foundusing location software. Some vehiclesare fitted with solar roofs to drive systemswhen stationary, though the impactof smog on the performance of theseproducts can be severe.

Car parks have proliferated. Delhi boaststhe highest sky-park in the world, at45 storeys, serviced by car-lifts. Otherresponses to congestion, from helicoptersto straddling buses to underground freightsolutions, are common.

The developed world has been at carsaturation since the early 2010s. Travel hasincreased modestly but only where thereis room, which means via cycling, walkingand public transport expansion, all of whichsaw significantly increased investment inthe 201030 period. Traffic growth hasbeen constrained as area-congestion andother road charging schemes have spread,as have car clubs and bike hire. Electricvehicles are a common sight in city centres

but have not hit the mainstream. Somecities, for example Shanghai, Beijing andSingapore, have mandated them in thecity centres, mainly to control air quality.

With power often concentrated with elites,schemes to free up the roads and evenelevated walkways for the wealthy arewidespread, particularly congestion charging

urban formLow density sprawl and fragmentedsuburbs are the norm.

The car-dominant urban model persists,resulting in the growth of huge, low-densitysuburbs, freeways to connect them andcommuter jams. In the periphery of the city

there are numerous failed developments,built too far from public transport andtherefore unaffordable to urban commutersnow that oil prices are high. Since 2030, thevalue of many of these new developmentshas crashed, with too many residentsunemployed or unable to afford the carcommute to their jobs. They either becomeghetto areas for poorer people, and informalparatransit services spring up to servicelong commutes for those who were stillemployed, or are reborn as localcommunities try to provide their ownservices. Many large cities have gone backto being fractured towns with either derelictor farm areas in between. For example,Detroit no longer exists, replaced by fivesmaller cities. There is a lot of decaying,underused car infrastructure beingscavenged and repurposed. Successfulpost-oil cities such as Amsterdam andSingapore are doing very well.


and toll roads. Many cities have built privatemember-only roads. In an economicallyconstrained world, new infrastructureprojects are rare, and those that do existfind new ways of full price recovery.



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Energy supply

A rapid transition to renewableenergy brings the world to theedge of a new energy paradigm.

A high carbon price has pushed fossil fuelprices up and stimulates investment inrenewables, including concentrated solarpower, wind and wave. Because of the sharptransition to low carbon solutions, energyis still relatively expensive. Innovationsin advanced thin film solar cells makedecentralised generation easier, and somecountries set micro-generation targets forhouseholds in an effort to reduce costs.

Nuclear energy and biofuels areuncompetitive. The next wave of energyinnovation is happening with ubiquitousgeneration through vibration-basedtechnology and mainstreaming of hydrogenfuel cell technology. Thanks to breakthroughsin solar-powered electrolysis, several regionsin North Africa and Asia have transitionedentirely to a hydrogen economy.

Personal mobility continues to be accessible,but several countries have recently hadelectricity outages as a result of electriccars overloading the grid.

Resource use

Resource use is strictly regulatedin a world short of food and land.

The shift to alternative energy in the 2030s

caused resource grabs and land-use shifts,affecting food production as a result. Food isparticularly scarce in Central Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Agrichemical companiesare tightly regulated in these regions andfocus on biotech innovation to build yield andclimate resilience.

Many governments impose biodiversityrestrictions such as natural resource quotas,offset obligations, and restrictions on theuse of virgin resources. In some countries,for example, the lack of bees now meansthat vehicles driving between cities are fittedwith technology to artificially pollinate thefields surrounding highways. Micro-foodproduction in urban areas is flourishingas people utilise locally abundant foodsources to address resource needs.

The economy

Economic power has shifted.

The cost of decarbonisation has causedglobal disruption, and disposable incomes

are lower than in 2010. The global balanceof power has shifted radically. Chinas earlypush on clean-tech brought huge growthdividends. India is also strong, particularlyin terms of the hydrogen economy andIT. Brazil and Mexico compete over theleadership of a powerful Latin American bloc.US and Russian influence is waning. SomeEuropean states with shrinking populationshave developed steady-state economies.

Nimble emerging players in Asia, LatinAmerica and Africa leapfrog to low-carbonsolutions. This includes hydrogen generation,which gives these economies an edge whenit comes to emerging mobility technology,and is beginning to disadvantage those whomade early investments in electrification.


An early global deal on climatechange means crisis can be averted.

Climate action emphasises mitigation the

community of states believes that the worstclimate impacts can still be averted. The priceof carbon is very high, and there are personalcarbon quotas in place in many countries.

A climate change adaptation fund for low-income countries has existed for decades.Some countries used it to pursue aggressivelow-carbon growth instead, sparking tensionand resentment from the West. But othersare forced to be more reactive, includingparts of South and Central Asia as well asSub-Saharan Africa, where low lying citiesand drought prone regions have to investmassively in sea barriers, resilient cropsand cooling urban green top.

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Governance

Strict governance holds sway innation-states and city-states alike.

Governance systems are unified and strong.

Benign autocracies in a number of emergingmarkets have often been more successfulthan traditional Western democracies.The global balance of power is concentratedbetween China and a handful of key allies,including Mexico, Turkey and somecity states.

Governments impose stricter rules, and useincreasingly sophisticated technology formonitoring and enforcement. They oftenmandate where you live within the city, howyou travel, and how much energy you use.Chips embedded in everyday objects ensurecompliance. Crime rates have droppedand traffic regulation has improved, butcivil society organisations argue that thedemocratic process is dead.

City-states again hold sway over widerterritories, as they did in medieval andearly modern Europe. The C8 powerfulconurbations Cairo, Lagos, Los Angeles,Mumbai, Sao Paulo, Seoul, Shanghai andTokyo hold an annual summit, and havedeveloped their own defence forces.

Social structures

The rich-poor gap has narrowed buta generational gap has opened up.

This is a world of greater social order and

more equity within societies. Governmentsredistribute wealth. People seek to re-identify with their local communities, despitestrong global governance and ubiquitousweb connectivity. Pockets of poverty andsimmering resentment are growing inregions left behind in the low-carbon race.The ageing populations of China and Latin

America cause intergenerational strife.

Human values

People value simplicityand authenticity.

Lifestyles have become more sustainableand people define themselves throughlow-carbon, green identities. Consumptionis oriented towards experience services,slower living and simplicity, which is justas well because there is less disposableincome to spend on acquiring goods.

Quality of life means superior connectivityvia integrated smart personal devices,access to nature, and access to efficient,low-carbon lifestyle enablers, such as

integrated work-travel-entertainmentservices.

The desire to drive has diminished andprevious generations obsession with themotor car seems strange and old-fashioned.


Business provides low-impactservices in collaboration withgovernments.

The low carbon economy has created loserssuch as big oil companies and winners,such as renewable energy firms. Businessesoperating in cities are forced by law to investin infrastructure and services. Those able topartner with governments in delivering low-carbon, resource efficient infrastructure arebest placed.

New industry clusters have emergedto cater to the sustainable consumersincreasing demand for integrated, low-carbon access to goods, services andinformation. Former food retailers havepartnered with construction companies anddesigners to provide integrated domesticasset management, delivering living spacesbundled with nutrition and water systems.Transport providers vie to offer the bestexperience service, such as providing thebest food on the daily train or bus commute,the best ICT solutions for virtual working,and superior onboard entertainment.


Innovation is driven and regulated bythe public sector, with an importantbreakthrough in battery technology.

Technological progress has been rapid anddominated by the public sector. Networkingtechnology has been a great enablerof development, but has also allowedgovernments to monitor citizens movementsand behaviour patterns more closely.

Technology investment is channelled towardsachieving national goals and improvingcivic life. Countries invest in smart-gridsystems that optimise energy use. Therehave been breakthroughs in batterytechnology allowing electric vehicles toscale up, with Asia as the key centre ofinnovation. Mobility efficiency is a priority,and all modes of transport are equippedwith data storing and sharing capabilities.

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urban formCities are consolidating andmoving towards polycentricmodels.

The age of urban sprawl is over. Citiesare redensifying and setting growthboundaries in an effort to create more

efficient, polycentric forms. Former suburbshave emerged as new cities, smallerin size but well-connected to megacitiesthrough ultra high-speed rail links.Megacities continue to be importantengines of growth and in the new citystates this is matched by political power.

Neighbourhood-centric planning is thenorm and people tend to live, play and workin the same locality. Neighbourhoods areorganised around key mobility and energynodes. These provide integrated services,from in-house energy generation to vehiclecharging points, to community centres andsmart working hubs.

There are strict targets around wastedisposal and energy generation in buildings all monitored by smart meters. In shrinking,post-industrial cities, unused inner-city landis converted into intensive farmland. Inner-city slums have become urbanised withaffordable eco-housing and greater accessto transport and other infrastructure.

In megacities where overcrowding has

become an issue, governments areincentivising large-scale populationshifts to second- and third-tier cities,which are experiencing rapid social andeconomic growth.

mobilityA shift to mass transit reducescongestion while alternativefuels reduce the impact of travel.

There has been a sharp change in thetransport fuel mix: electric, hybrid and increasingly hydrogen motors dominate.

Filling stations have been converted intoenergy stations, integrated service stopsthat offer a multiplicity of fuels.

Personal vehicles are attainable, but nolonger as desirable. Car ownership isstigmatised in many places much likesmoking was in the 2000s. Personalvehicles are ultra-small, stackable electricpods and solar scooters that can beprogrammed to drive themselves via anonboard journey planner, leaving the driverto have a meal or chat with friends. Theyare frequently interchanged with publictransport modes as well as cycling andwalking, because urban centres are oftennon-motorised.

People feel civic pride in using effectivepublic transport systems. In order tomaintain a degree of personal space,personal rapid transit (PRT) is a popularmode of choice: people can work or surfthe net while travelling in individualrail pods. The less privileged pile onhydrogen-powered buses, although with apowerful range, dedicated corridors, and

sophisticated ICT services, these are a farcry from the buses their parents used.

Almost every aspect of transport is guidedby e-technology (e.g. sensing technologiesand interactive services deployed to enableinformation access, manage demand, etc.).Daily commutes are optimised by alwaysknowing what and who is around, through

location-based applications that conveytailored information to users.

All this, combined with the proliferation oflocal food production and sophisticatedunderground freight pipelines, meanscongestion is an issue of the past inmost cities. The daily commute is tightlycontrolled by government. There are oftenset times when you can commute to workand back; and some cities even mandatea residence radius within a certain distancefrom work, impose commuter taxes, orsubsidise low carbon mobility patterns(e.g. online shopping, cycling, non-motorised

delivery services).

Key urban zones are now connectedby ultra high-speed trains, so mobilitybetween regions remains high despitethe fact that flying is no longer availableto the masses. Chinese railway systemsencircle the globe, taking people vastdistances on 300mph trains.

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2015

Global climate change deal fails.

2020The UN is disbanded, and the G20 isput on hold as people vote for the nextpresident via facebook.

2022

South Korea ranks highestin terms of GDP per capita.

2025An escape of bio engineeredalgae carpets the mediterranean,devastating marine life and tourism.

2027

Bangladesh and Netherlands hit byworst ever floods. New internationalalliance of L20 low-lying countriesto deal with threats.

2031The first hands free neuro-sensingscooters go on sale.

2035

Alternatives now mainstream: renewablesoutproduce fossil fuels.

timeline

scenario 4

communi-cityThe world has turned to alternative energy, andtransport is highly personalised, with a huge varietyof transport modes competing for road space.

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Energy supply

Local renewable energy generationand decentralised grids havesuperceded coal, gas and oil.

Fossil fuel use is a thing of the past.Oil supplies have peaked and coal sitsin the ground un-mined because thealternatives are so much cheaper and workbetter. The full spectrum of renewablesis being deployed at a local scale: solar,wind, wave and biomass, depending onlocal circumstances. Small-scale, local,decentralised grids proliferate and manybusinesses and individuals around the worldhave gone completely off-grid. Micro-nuclearhas proliferated too, with thousands of smallreactors dotted across the world. These havepassive cooling systems, which continue towork even if power goes down, and operatefor up to 30 years without refuelling. Nuclearproliferation has now eclipsed climatechange as the number one security worry.

Resource use

Cities have transformed to producemore of their own food and deallocally with waste and water.

Food is expensive and demand for landis high. Large, privately owned and poorlyregulated plankton and algae farmsdot coastlines in populated zones, allbioengineered. Community-organisedvertical and small-scale horticulture hasflourished in cities, with balconies, roofs andthe sides of buildings given over to growingfood. Cities look and feel very different asa result, though they are still reliant on theirhinterland and imports to feed themselves.Urban aquaculture, using various bio-engineered species, helps dispose of wasteand provide food. Cheap energy means citiescan afford desalination. Technologies forwater capture and saving are booming. Mosthouses and apartment blocks have their ownharvesting, recycling and purification plants.

The economy

Grassroots business and newtechnology compensate forprotectionist trade and slowglobal growth.

The world is a more fragmented place.The lack of a global framework for climatechange has led to protectionism, smallermarkets and lower overall growth. On theother hand, energy is more accessible,cheaper and cleaner. Rapid, bottom-uptechnology development has boostedproductivity. Winner countries are those withlarge internal markets to drive growth, bigcities and a highly educated knowledge-based workforce. Brain enhancementbreakthroughs in Korea have pushed thatcountry to the top of the economic league,but others are now copying and catching up.


People and communities adapt toclimate change and reduce carbondespite weak global policy.

There is no global climate change deal but,spurred on by climate disasters, individualgovernments and companies proactivelyput money into technological developmentwithout waiting for a cap-and-trade system.

As a result, low carbon solutions have comeon stream quickly and overall emissionsare quite low. In this do-it-yourself world,people are adapting to climate changethemselves, leading to some interesting newideas. Floating farms and flood-resistantconstruction are now routine technologiesfor resisting climate shocks. The rich worldis better able to afford these technologiesfor low-carbon adaptation. When poorcountries experience natural disasters, thereis no global relief effort. This has lead to anincrease in violent outbursts against what isperceived to be the rich worlds climate debtand monopoly on life-saving technology.

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Governance

Central coordination is weakand more power resides at thecommunity level using computer-based collaborative tools.

Multilateralism has disintegrated, becauseGlobal agreements and governance grewincreasingly complex, expensive andunworkable. Politicians failed to realise thatinternational machinery could only go sofar without cultural integration. Eventually,much of it fell apart to be replaced by anetwork of bilateral, regional and peer-to-peer alliances. Some nations remain strong,but many have weakened or fragmented,replaced by regional and local governance.People are less willing to be told what to do.Online crowd-sourcing is common in city

development and in deciding what publicservices should be provided. Many citiesadopt a collaborative model of governancewith local participatory budgets. This hasworked very well in many areas, but in othersit has been hijacked and corrupted.

continued

Social structures

A more unequal world, but fullof opportunity.

Inequality within and between societies

is on the rise, and the process of reverseglobalisation has led to distinct winners andlosers. There are few mechanisms for wealthredistribution, though social mobility is highand entrepreneurialism is strong. If youvegot a good idea you can build a successfulbusiness locally, but it is difficult to take it toscale.

Human values

People are less consumerist andstatus-driven and look more toreligion and community.

Religious and cultural norms have becomemore entrenched in many places. Elsewhere,people value the local and blend thetraditional with ultra-modern. In the US,for example, anti-consumerist evangelicalChristianity holds sway. With Islam on therise in Africa and Asia, as well as vocalnationalism in countries like China, manyconsumers have turned to local trendsinspired by religious and cultural ideals,and reject Western style. It is a moreindividualist world, with people wanting to

do things on their terms. Sometimes thatmeans collaborating with others throughcommunities and sometimes it means goingit alone.


Business is more decentralised andglobal businesses are less common.

The model for the economy and commerce

is the internet: distributed, and bottom up;with not too much power held in one place.The physical economy primary, secondaryand tertiary is very localised. Manufacturingtoo is very local, often using nanotech,and made viable by very cheap renewableenergy. Goods and services have becomemore regionalised and culturally specific.Products are made for local markets and,because of a lack of international standardsare difficult to trade internationally. One areawhere the world is still relatively globalised isin information technology. It is a networkedworld, with lots of virtualisation. However,

even here a series of catastrophic viruseshave focused people on IT security ratherthan speed of interaction, and increasingdistrust between nations means that somethirty governments have blocked access tothe global internet.


Rapid breakthroughs maketechnology an exciting area ofchange, and many people areinvolved through grassroots

innovation and research.Innovation has flourished all over the globe.Bottom-up, multiple approaches haveled to rapid breakthroughs, and not justin low-carbon technology. Bio and nanotechnologies have also developed rapidly.Some of the biggest breakthroughs arehappening where technologies suchas b

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Megacities on the Move (Toolkit Full Report)