h"p://www.c40ci,es.org/

Megacities Carbon Project Overview

9May2012RileyDuren

ChiefSystemsEngineerEarthScience&Technology

JetPropulsionLaboratory,CaliforniaIns,tuteofTechnology

collaboratorsfromJPL,Caltech,ArizonaStateUniversity,PennStateUniversity,NIST,NOAA,UCLA,LawrenceBerkeleyNa,onalLab,HarvardUniversity,CaliforniaAirResourcesBoard,AQMD,LeLaboratoiredesSciencesduClimatetl'Environnement,Scripps,Earth

Networks,ResourcesfortheFuture,NASAGISS,ColumbiaUniversity,Associa,ondesurveillancedelaqualitédel'airenÎle‐de‐France

Allmaterialcontainedhereinispre‐decisional,fordiscussiononly.

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CopyrightCaltech,governmentsponsorshipacknowledged.CL#12‐5384

Outline

•  History•  Mo,va,on•  Projectconcept–  Vision–  Keyelements

–  No,onalarchitecture•  Opportuni,es&Challenges•  Topicsandworkshopapproach

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History•  20081stGreenhouseGasInforma,onSystemworkshop(DOE/NOAA/NASA)

•  20091stGHGIS/ICOSmee,ng(US/Europe)–megaci,esdiscussionsstart•  2010

–  NRCreportongreenhousegasverifica,on–  KISSworkshoponQuan,fyingSourcesandSinksofCO2–  NISTGHGQuan,fica,onandVerifica,onworkshop–  NASACarbonMonitoringSystem(congressionalmandate)

–  CARB/NOAACalnexcampaign

–  ANRMEGAPARISproject

•  2011–  1st&2ndMegaci,esworkshops(LA/JPL&Paris/AIRPARIF)

–  NISTINFLUXexperiment(Indianapolis)

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Also,relatedstudiesbyWofsyetalinBoston,SaltLakeCity,etc

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Relevance:Ci,esma"er75%ofglobalfossil‐fuelCO2

Source:Ci#esandClimateChange:anurgentagenda,WorldBank,2010

Urgency:ci,esareundergoingrapidchange

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•  BothwithStabiliza5on–  GreenLAPlan(2007)

•  35%(vs1990)by2030

–  ParisClimatePlan(2007)•  25%(vs2004)by2020

andGrowth•  Globalurbaniza,onwilldoubleby2050•  Explosivegrowthindevelopingmegaci,es popula#on>4%/year emissions>10%/year

h"p://live.c40ci,es.org/

Hes,a,1km

Right:GriddedannualfossilfuelCO2emissionsfromamedium‐sizecity(Indianapolis)showdis,nctgradientsatdifferentspa,alscales.Right:CDIAC2006emissionsfortheCONUSplo"edona1°(~100km)showavgflux200‐600gC/m2/yr.Middle:Vulcan2002emissionsforthe~10,000km2areacenteredonIndianapolisona10kmgrid.Les:Hes,a2002emissionsfortheurbancoreona1kmgrid.TheVulcanandHes,aplotsuselog‐normalscales(typically>20,000gC/m2/yr).

Pragma,sm:measuringCO2fromci,esismoretractablethancountries

CO2atlocalscalesismoreintensethanatlargerscales

CH4isalsoimportant

HsuetalAtmoEnviron,2010

Seealso:

June1(Bloomberg)‐‐FormerU.S.PresidentBillClintonurgedci,esandtheWorldBanktoworkoncurbingmethaneemissionsfromlandfillsandcharcoal,sayingthosestepsfirstwouldbuy,meinthefightagainstglobalwarming.Poli,ciansmayneedyearstoworkoutawaytolimitthecarbondioxideproducedbyburningfossilfuels,anditwouldcheaperandquickertofocusonothergasesfirst,ClintonsaidattheC40mee,ngofmayorsfromtheworld’slargestci,esinSaoPaulotoday.Methanehas25,mestheglobalwarmingimpactofcarbondioxide…

Peischeletal2010,Calnex,LACH4

Challenges•  Theul,mateimpactsoflocalmi,ga,onac,onscannotyetbeverified

–  InventoriesofGHGsprovidebo"om‐upes,matesbasedonac,vitydata–  Reportedannualuncertain,esrangefrommodest(5%)tolarge(>50%)–  Nodirecta"ribu,onofatmosphericCO2orCH4toagivenen,ty

•  Overthe,me‐spanofemissionpolicies(10+years),theseuncertain,escanexceedtheexpectedtrend(10’sof%)

•  Intheabsenceofbe"ermeasures,wedon’tknowifourac,onsareadequateorcost‐effec,ve

•  Be"erdataandmodelinghavethepoten,altoimprovethemeasuresthattellusifourlocalac,onsaremakingadifference

•  However,weares,llgroundedinexploratorysciencemode–  Methodologicalstudieshavenotyetaddressedcomplexmegaci,es–  Evolvingcapabilityininstrumenta,on(surface,air,andsatellites)–  Perhaps20yearsawayfromtransi,ontoanopera,onalcapabilityatthisrate

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TheU.S.Na,onalResearchCouncilrecognizedtheneedtofocusonurbandomes

(NRC,Pacalaetal2010)

“Recommenda,on.Extendtheinterna,onalatmosphericsamplingnetwork:Toresearchtheatmosphericdomesof

greenhousegasesoverarepresenta,vesampleoflarge

localemiDers,suchasci5esandpowerplants,

Thisresearchini,a,vewouldyielddataneededto

calibratesatellitemeasurementsoflargelocalemiDers,

demonstrateanindependentcapabilitytomonitorlarge

localemiDersfromgroundsta5onsandaircraI,and

documentlong‐termshiIsinfossil‐versusnon‐fossil‐fuel

sourcesinurbanandindustrialregions.Anini5algoal

couldbetodeployinstrumentsatasta5s5calsampleof

largeemiDers(e.g.,5‐10).

9OurconceptstartswithLA,Paris,andTBD3rdcityinSouthAmericaorAsia‐

andisdesignedtobeexpandable

Megaci,esCarbonProject•  AglobalmonitoringsystemforurbanCO2andCH4willofferac,onableinforma,onto

a"ributeandevaluatetheeffectsofclimatepolicies–  IFthemeasurementsandanaly,calmethodscanbeshowntobeaccurateandcost‐effec,ve–  IFtheycanworkreliablyincomplex“emissionsenvironments”(megaci,es)

•  Ul,mately,anopera,onalsystemcouldconsistof:–  Highaccuracysurfacemeasurementsin20+representa,vemegaci,es

–  Densesatelliteobserva,onsofallmajorci,es&otherlocalizedsources

–  Improvedbo"om‐upemissionsmodeling

–  Analysistointegratetop‐down&bo"om‐updataconnec,ngtrendswithac,on

•  Aninterna,onalpilotprojectcanbridgebetweentoday’smethodologicalstudiesandthatfutureopera,onalsystem(ini,ally3ci,es,butexpandable)–  Sustained(5+yr)monitoringtodetecttrendsinemissions

–  Demonstrateconfidenceinmi,ga,onac,onsbyvalida,ngtheireffects

–  Buildtechnicalandscien,ficcapacity(infrastructureandknowledge)

–  Transparentdatasharingandcomparisontopromoteconfidenceandtrust

10Allres5ngonscien5ficprinciplesandcredibility

Vision:towardsanopera,onalmonitoringsystem

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2010 2015 2020

Site1

Site2

Near‐termSatellites

Nextgenera,onsatellites

INFLUX(NIST)

Megaci,esCarbonPilot(2012‐2017) GlobalUrban

MonitoringSystem

Exis,ngsurfacenetworksinLA,

Paris,…

Calnex(CARB/NOAA)

CMS(NASA)

Afewcarefullyselectedmegaci,es

Afirststeptowardforminganinterna,onalpilotprojectto:

•  Expandthesciencebasenecessarytosupportrobust,reliable,andeffec,veGHGdetermina,onsforci,es,

•  Advancethenecessarymeasurementcapabili,esandscien,ficknowledgethroughcontribu,onsfromallpar,cipants,

•  Movetowardinterna,onalrecogni,onofstandardmethodologiestomeasureandcharacterizeurbanGHGdomesandquan,fytheirdynamics,and

•  AssurethosechargedwithformingGHGmi,ga,onpoliciesgloballythatameansisavailabletoquan,fytheperformanceofthosepolicies.

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LosAngeles Paris SaoPaulo(TBD) Beijing/Tianjin(TBD)

Whilebeingwaryofexpandingtooquickly(walkthenrun);Moreonthistomorrow....

WhyLosAngeles?•  Textbookmegacity

–  LAcounty:#1CO2emi"erinUS(,edwithHarrisCounty,TX)–  LAmegacity(SCAB)islargestCO2emi"erinCalifornia(*)

–  Largetransporta,onsec,on–  LargestseaportintheUS–  1/3ofthestate’sCH4emissionsfromlandfills

–  Significantnaturalgasinfrastructure–  Complexmeteorology&geography

•  Establishedobserva,onalnetwork(Caltech,Mt.Wilson,PalosVerdes)

•  Cri,calmassoflocalresearchins,tutes(JPL,Caltech,UCLA,UCI,UCR)

•  Climatepolicyleadership(LAMayor’sOffice,CARB)

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delaRueduCan,etal(2008)

*

***

No,onalLAMegacityObservingNetwork

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NewGHGsta,onsExis,ng/plannedGHGsta,on

100km

MegacityDomain(SouthCoastAirBasin*)OCO‐2groundtrack

Notillustrated:•  Densesurfacemeteorologynetwork•  Boundarylayerprofilers•  Ex‐urbanfluxtowers

*allofOrangeCountyandthenon‐desertpor,onsofLosAngeles,SanBernardino,andRiversideCoun,es

Preliminaryandpre‐decisional

Keyobserva,onalelements

In‐situsensorsandflasksCalnexresults,Pasadena,NewmanetalAPCD2012

Fixedcolumnobserva,ons,Wunchetal,GRL,2009

Scanningpar,alcolumnobserva,onsfromMt.Wilson(CLARS,Sanderetal)

Airborneobserva,ons(Calnex,Wofsyetal2010)

1

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Boundarylayer&surfacemet(aserLuandTurco1995)

Otherkeyelements

•  Nestedtracertransportmodels•  Observa,onsofboundary

condi,ons

•  Space‐,meresolvedCO2andCH4emissiondataproducts(Vulcan/Hes,a,etc)

•  DataQC,calibra,onmeta‐data,uncertaintyquan,fica,on

•  A"ribu,onandtrendanalysis•  Valida,on•  Datasharingandstewardship•  Sustainedengagementwith

stakeholders16

D1:Global‐GEOS‐CHEM2°x2.5°D2:N.America‐GEOS‐CHEM0.5°x0.667°

D3:WesternUS‐WRF12kmx12kmD4:SoCal‐WRF4kmx4km

Gurneyetal,Gridded(2500mX2500m)CO2emissions

Pu~ngitalltogether(no,onalsystemarchitecture)

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Surfacein‐situCO2,CH4,CO,others(?)

SurfaceremotesensedCO2,CH4(CLARS&TCCONFTS)

Intensiveobs(aircrasandsurface

mobile)

Satelliteobs(GOSAT,MOPITT,OCO‐2/‐3,MODIS,

OMI)

NestedMesoscaleModelsWRF/chem‐VRPM

WRF/LPDM‐VPRM/CASAWRF‐STILT

CHIMERE‐ORCHIDEE

High‐resurbanCO2/CH4emissiondataproductsVulcan/Hes,a

FFDAS

Meta‐analysis:A"ribu,onandTrend

assessment

priors

Fluxes,mates&uncertain,es

DataExchangesystem

PBLprofiles&surfacemet(varioussensors)

BoundaryCondi,ons

Fluxes,mates&uncertain,es

Reportedemissions&uncertain,es

DataExchangesystem

GlobalModelsCMS(GEOS‐chem)CarbonTracker

LMDZLETKF

Othermethods(e.g.,tracer‐tracer)

Otherci,es

Urban/regionalInventories

CARBAIRPARIF

Valida,on

Towardswell‐posedques,ons

DetectnettrendsinanthropogenicCO2andCH4

emissionsfrommegaci,es(e.g.,10%over5ys)&linktomajorpolicyac,ons

VerifyCO2emissionsfromlargesta,onarypointsources

DetectCH4leaksfromnaturalgas

SurfaceNetworkofIn‐situtrace‐gas

sensors

SurfaceNetworkofPBL&Metsensors

Remotesensingobserva,ons

High‐accuracy,sustainedmeasurementofCO2,CH4,CO,othermixingra5os

Op5malsiteloca5ondrivenbyreceptor

footprintsIntensive

Campaigns(mobile&airborne)

Modelingsystems(fluxinversion,non‐inversefluxmethods,emissionmodels,&ensembletes,ng)

Periodicmeasurementofspa,algradients

Sustainedmeasurementofsystema,ctrends

Top‐downspa,almaps&net,me‐seriesofCO2&CH43Dfields&fluxes,2km,6

hour,formegacitydomains

Bo"om‐upmapsand,me‐seriesofanthr.CO2&CH4emissions,2km,6hour,formegacitydomains

Analysis:a"ribu,on,trendassessment,and

linkagetoinventoriesand

policies Transparentdatasharingsystem

Precisioncolumnmixingra5osofCO2,CH4,CO

withinmegacitydomainsandboundaries

Objec5ves DeliverableProducts Requiredprojectelements

Differentobjec#vesmayrequiredifferentcapabili#es

Highresolu,onancillaryobserva5onsofsurface

temps,3Durbanstructure,NDVI,LUE,etc

Opportunity/Complexityoverlappinginterestsandcapability

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Forillustra,ononly;figureisnotcomplete;overlapisno,onal

MEGAPARISCALGEM

Commercialventures(e.g.,EN)

NASA(CMS)

NOAA(GMD)

Scrippsnetwork

Megaci5esCarbonProject

NIST(INFLUX)

CARB(mul,pleprojects)

Challenges

•  Relevantandresponsivetostakeholderneeds•  Credibilityinthefaceofrelentlessscru,ny–  Transparent(data,models,meta‐data,UQ,protocols)

–  Traceableandcalibrated–  Validated

•  Sustainedcommitment(mul,‐yeartrends)–  Con,nuityofcri,calobserva,ons–  Guaranteedaccesstodata

Topicsforworkshop•  ProjectObjec,ves•  Needsfortracegasobserva,ons

•  Fixednetwork:Howmany,loca,ons,whichspecies•  Intensivecampaigns(surfacemobileandairborne)•  Satelliteobserva,ons

•  NeedsforABLandsurfacemetobserva,ons•  NeedsfordataQC,calibra,on,&datastewardship•  Needsformodeling•  Analysis(a"ribu,on,trends,linkingtoac,ons)•  Valida,on•  Integra,on:bringingitalltogether•  Programma,cs

•  Projectpolicies:Datasharing,Releasingresults/publica,on•  Capacitybuildingmechanisms•  Interna,onalframeworkforcoordina,on

•  Others?

Foreachtopic,consider:howgoodisgoodenough?Andaretherecity‐uniqueneeds?(quan,ta,vewherepossible)