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Measuring Migrant Stock in the Russian Federation (and selected CIS countries)
Olga ChudinovskikhMoscow State Lomonosov University
Overview
UN approach to migrant stock estimation in the CIS countries: do the UN definitions always guarantee a correct result?
Evolution in tradition of migrants’ identification in RF and USSR
What data valid for migrants stock estimation do the national censuses (Round 2000) in the CIS countries present?
Data sources (related to migrants stock) in the Russian Federation
Conclusions
UN DESA Population Division: Trends In Total Migrant Stock: The 2005 Revision
The United States is the largest recipient of international migrants, with 38 migrants in 2005. It is followed by the Russian Federation (12 million), Germany (10 million), Ukraine, France and Saudi Arabia (with over 6million international migrants each).
(International) migrant definition in the USSR and the RF statistics and science
Before 1990- main problems: to decrease migration from ruarl areas and to stimulate migration to the regions of rapid industrial development. No experience of international migration estimation (no special methodology, no special definitions)
Demographic encyclopedia published in 1985 defined only “a migrant” as “a person who migrates, i.e.
crosses the administrative borders of territories and changes place of residence for more or less long period”.
Criteria for statistical observation both of internal and international migrants in the USSR and Russia :
neither citizenship, nor place of birth criterion is used. Since 2002- citizenship is one of migrant’s characteristics.- 1992-1993 – refugees and forced migrants definitions,- 2002 – foreign citizens and stateless persons definition- No concrete definiton of an international migrant (Inertia or heritage of the past)
Possible sources of data for migrant stock estimation in the CIS countries:
Census
Administrative records (residents with permits, foreign workers, foreign students, refugees, etc.)
Place of birth Citizenship Had lived in the place of residence since birth / not since birth If not – since what year – Previous place of residence (RF – for those who moved after1989) In some countries- place of residence at the census moment (Moldova), - If was
temporary absent – (period of absence ) (Azerbaijan ), Refugees or deported (Ukraine, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan)
+ Languages, ethnicity
In the RF census program place of previous residence was mentioned only by those who arrivedin 1989-2002 and related to the date of the previous census: Where lived in 1989(Region, Rural or Urban area)
Census :the main source of data for migrants stock
estimation. Questions related to migration in the CIS Censuses (Round 2000) programmes
Foreign and foreign born population in selected CIS countries
Born out of the rep.
Foreign citizens
% of population:Born out of the rep.
% Foreign citizens
Armenia 285695 27546 8,90% 0,90%
Ukraine 5156240 169122 10,70% 0,40%
Belarus 1158815 107756 11,50% 1,10%
Kazakhstan 2113173 85205 14,10% 0,60%
Russian Federation 11976822 1025413 8,30% 1,00%
Foreign and foreign born population in selected CIS countries
8,90%10,70% 11,50%
14,10%
8,30%
0,90% 0,40% 1,10% 0,60% 1,00%
0%2%
4%6%
8%10%
12%14%
16%
Born out of the rep.
Foreign citizens
Foreign and foreign born population in selected CIS countries
Population (pers.)
Born in the republic
Born out of the rep. Nationals
Citizens of the other countries and stateless pers.
Armenia
Abs. 3213001 2927306 285695 3185455 27546
% 100,0% 91,1% 8,9% 99,1% 0,9%
Ukraine
Abs. 48240902 43084662 5156240 47950004 169122
% 100,0% 89,3% 10,7% 99,4% 0,4%
Belarus
Abs. 10045237 8886422 1158815 9934539 107756
% 100% 88,5% 11,5% 98,9% 1,1%
Kazakhstan
Abs. 14953126 12839761 2113173 14867921 85205
% 100,0% 85,9% 14,1% 99,4% 0,6%
Russian Federation
Abs. 145166731 131608720 11976822 142442404 1025413
% 100% 90,7% 8,3% 98,1% 1,0%
Period of residence criteria Distribution of life-time migrants (born abroad) by period of residence in selected CIS countries Source: National censuses data (Round 2000)
Period of residence (years)
After the break out of the USSR
Before the break out of the USSR
5 and < 6 -- 9
10 and more total
Ukraine Abs.351123 423451 4377354 5.156.240 778.886
4.377.354
% 6,8% 8,2% 84,9% 100% 15% 85%
Belarus Abs.198883 199738 864402 1.263.023 398.621 864.402
%15,7% 15,8% 68,4% 100,0% 32% 68%
Ethnicity as a criterion for migrants stock estimation
One must be very careful using this criterion
RF population – 190 ethnic groups,
Ukraine, Belarus population - more
than 130 ethnic groups Partially can be applied to
some categories of migrants to monitor their presence in the country.
Self-identification – reliability can not be proven
Thousand 1989 2002
2002/ 1989 (%)
Armeinan 532 1130 212,4
Azerbaijani 336 622 185,1
Russian 119866 115889 97,6%
Percentage and dynamics of titular population in selected CIS countries.(Source - National censuses (Round 2000) data, Statistics yearbook “CIS countries in 2002”)
% of titular population
Dynamics of titular population since the last USSR census (1989/ 2002 )
% of non-titular population
Azerbaijan 90,6% 1,24 9,4%
Armenia 99,1% 0,98 0,9%
Belarus 81,2% 1,03 18,8%
Kazakhstan 53,4% 1,23 46,6%
Kyrgyzstan 64,9% 1,40 35,1%
Russia79,8% 0,97 20,2%
Ukraine 77,8% 1,003 22,2%
Foreigners, foreign born and non-titular population in selected CIS countries- what criteria is the best?
0,9%
18,8%
46,6%
22,2%
8,9%
11,5%
14,1%
10,7%
0,9%
1,1%
0,6%
0,4%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
Armenia
Belarus
Kazakhstan
Ukraine
Non-titular population Foreign born Foreigners
Administrative records as a source for migrant stock estimation
Foreign workers Refugees and asylum seekers Data based on registration of foreigners Data on residence permits…
Refugees (forced migrants)in the RF
Stock of forced migrants total
2002 2003 2004 2005
20504 4726 4 291 8 914
Variables :•Previous place of residence•New place of residence (RF regions)•Number of applications•Age and sex composition•Level of education•Ethnicity•Etc.
Foreign labour force- uncertainty of definitions
Total foreign labore force in 2005
Data on 01.01
2005Arrivals
2005
Departures 2005
Data on 31.12.
2005
Foreign workers in the RF 702500 256336 446164 258599 443901
Duration of foreign workers employment in the RF (Arrived in 2005)
0,5% 7,8%4,0%
87,7%
< 3 months
3 - 6 months
6-9 months
9-12 months
Problem of estimation of long-term visa holders
Categories of visa in the RF (each includes subcategories)
Private (short term < or = 3 months) Business (most of subcategories of this visa holders
could be long-term migrants: 3 m., then - up to 12 months, and could be extended)
Tourist (short-term < or = 1 month ) Student (many of visa holders are long-term extended up
to 12 months and more) Job (most of subcategories could be long term) Humanitarian (could be long-term) Asylum (long term) Transit – up to 10 days
Stock of foreigners with residence permits in the RF (Migration service data)
420710
552991
321944
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
2003 2004 2005
Stock of foreigners withtemporary residencepermits
Stock of foreigners withpermanent residencepermits
Residents with permitstotal
Presidence permits issued in 2003-2005, RF
246332
170268
253096
13131 15995
73160
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2003 2004 2005
Issued temporaryresidence permits
Issued permanentresidence permits
RF Citizenship acquisition
38117
333117
508457
0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000
2003
2004
2005
RF Census 2010 migration related questions for residents Place of birth Citizenship: RF, other, How did you get the RF citizenship – by birth of as the USSR passport holder? Or –By naturalization ? Previous citizenshipWhen – did you get the RF citizenship? Your ethnicity Have you ever lived abroad for more than 1 year? Where did you arrived in the RF? etc
Foreign population central data bankPlanned to be created by January 2007), responsible authority – Federal Migration service
Stage 1 (Ministry of home affairs data)1. Migration cards information on arrivals and departures of foreigners2. Data on refugees and asylum seekers3. Foreign workers dataStage 2 (Ministry of home affairs data)4. Residence permits, temporary residence permits and stay permits5. Information on crimes committed against foreigners and by foreignersStage 3 (other ministries data)6. Federal border service data 7. Visas and invitations statistics 8. Customs Committee data 9. Ministry of taxes data 10. Other ministries and authorities data on foreignersStage 4 Information exchange and distribution (rules are not defined)
Why data on migrants stock are considered to be important?
They are supposed to create a background for the estimation of economic, political and cultural consequences of foreign migrants’ presence in the country, their interaction with local population, etc.
Concerns of immigrants integration
Migrants who moved before the break out of the USSR (and partially – after) needed adaptation rather than integration:
Majority of them spoke the same language, had common cultural origin,
were born in the same country and were nationals of the same state
Experts’ point of view: Who is an international migrant?(Experts – statisticians, migration service officers, researchers.)
Whom do you consider to be a long-term international migrant? ( RF – 12 experts, other CIS count. – 6 experts) Yes No
1. Foreign born residents of your country (citizenship in not considered)
6 (CIS-4)
12 (CIS-2)
2. Citizens of the other countries (place of birth in not considered) 15 3
3. Nationals of your country who returned after a long stay abroad 8 10
4. Non- titular population in your country (having titular states abroad) 1 17
5. Children of foreigners who live in your country and were born in you country 7 11
6. Those who arrived in your republic:6.1. before the collapse of the USSR from the other Soviet republics
5(CIS-3)
13(CIS-3)
6.2. after the decay18
(CIS-6) 0
CIS COUNTRIES: Question 6 .1 Ukraine,
Kazakhstan 3Moldova, Belarus,
Azerbaijan 3
Question 6. 2 6 0
Concluding remarks No concrete or uniform definition of long-term
international migrant in the CIS countries Censuses based data - prevalence of citizenship criterion Preferable source of data - administrative records –
stocks of foreigners of different categories , as they are in focus of migration policy
Ethnicity can not be (the main) criterion for migrant identification in the CIS countries
Practical use of migrant stock estimation (foreign born definition) is not applicable everywhere.
Historical background of population should be taken into account.