MDM4U Culminating ProjectUnemployment and Divorce in

Ontario

By:

Rachel Wang

Glebe Collegiate Institute

For Mr. Garvin Boyle

Contents

• Introduction• Thesis Question and Hypothesis• Data Preparation• Analysis of Graphs

– Observations

– Interpretations

• Conclusions and Considerations for the next project• Summary

Introduction

• This is the second portion of the culminating project for the MDM4U Data Management course.

• The purpose of this project was to retrieve and investigate possible relationship(s) between variables.

• Five variables were retrieved from the Statistics Canada database:

– Rate of induced abortions per 1,000 females in between the ages of 25 and 29.

– Unemployment rate of population in between the ages of 25 and 44.

– Total number of divorces.

– Rate of crimes of violence per 100,000 individuals.

– Net financial debt, in millions of dollars, of the Ontario provincial government

Thesis and Hypothesis

• Thesis– What correlation exists between the conditions of economy and

the stability of families in Ontario?• Hypothesis

– It was hypothesized that a strong positive correlation exists between the unemployment rate and the rate of divorce. When people become unemployed, the standard of living decreases dramatically, and this may cause psychological issues such as anger and depression. This may result in disagreement and arguments between a couple, and may eventually lead to divorce.

1984 14.1 7.9 21636 684.5 21496 6845825 59.41985 13.2 7.1 20851 723.2 23699 6968408 61.81986 13.2 6.3 27549 769.1 27804 7098868 64.61987 13.6 5.4 39095 842.8 29954 7272385 67.81988 14.0 4.6 32524 867.3 31804 7439335 71.01989 15.2 4.8 31298 907.3 32659 7665021 75.11990 19.5 5.8 28977 968.1 37683 7813412 78.71991 20.4 9.0 27694 1042.6 40966 7913609 82.41992 21.4 10.1 30463 1045.2 51261 8009979 83.21993 22.9 10.4 28903 1051.7 63797 8098533 84.71994 23.5 9.1 30718 1003.9 77052 8196608 84.71995 24.4 8.2 29352 962.4 86045 8297287 86.81996 24.9 8.7 25035 933.8 97016 8395525 88.21997 23.7 7.4 23629 908.6 104163 8518808 89.81998 22.1 6.2 25149 896.4 108137 8635434 90.61999 20.7 5.5 26088 852.8 108761 8761914 92.42000 20.7 4.9 26148 886.7 107409 8918731 95.12001 20.1 5.6 26516 874.4 103140 9103974 98.02002 19.7 6.5 26170 828.7 103510 9298440 100.02003 19.1 6.0 27513 779.5 102611 9467509 102.7

Data Preparation

• Of the five variables that were collected, three variables were measured in rates, which meant that they were unaffected by population and inflation

• However, the total number of divorces contained population-driven data, while the net financial debt contained inflation-driven data.

• To remove the effect of population, the total number of divorces had to be divided by the total population of Ontario, so that the divorce per capita was found.

• To remove the effect of inflation, current year dollars must be converted into constant dollars by dividing a value by its corresponding Consumer Price Index, which measures the changes in consumer prices, and multiplying by 100. In this case, the base year was 2002, which meant that the financial debt in 2002 will stay the same.

Year Rate of Induced Abortions

Unemployment Rate

Number of Divorces per capita

Rate of Crimes of Violence

Net Financial Debt in millions of constant dollars

1984 14.1 7.9 0.0032 684.5 36188.6

1985 13.2 7.1 0.0030 723.2 38347.9

1986 13.2 6.3 0.0039 769.1 43040.2

1987 13.6 5.4 0.0054 842.8 44179.9

1988 14.0 4.6 0.0044 867.3 44794.4

1989 15.2 4.8 0.0041 907.3 43487.4

1990 19.5 5.8 0.0037 968.1 47881.8

1991 20.4 9.0 0.0035 1042.6 49716.0

1992 21.4 10.1 0.0038 1045.2 61611.8

1993 22.9 10.4 0.0036 1051.7 75321.1

1994 23.5 9.1 0.0037 1003.9 90970.5

1995 24.4 8.2 0.0035 962.4 99130.2

1996 24.9 8.7 0.0030 933.8 109995.5

1997 23.7 7.4 0.0028 908.6 115994.4

1998 22.1 6.2 0.0029 896.4 119356.5

1999 20.7 5.5 0.0030 852.8 117706.7

2000 20.7 4.9 0.0029 886.7 112943.2

2001 20.1 5.6 0.0029 874.4 105244.9

2002 19.7 6.5 0.0028 828.7 103510.0

2003 19.1 6.0 0.0029 779.5 99913.3

One-Variable Analysis

The twenty data points of unemployment rates were plotted into five intervals. The graph appeared to be slightly right skewed, with the bin of the lowest interval having the highest frequencies, but generally uniform distribution. This suggests that the Ontario economy is in a stable condition, and the trend is that during majority of the twenty years, the unemployment rates were fairly low.

The data collected during the twenty years form 1984 to 2003 were put into five bins of equal intervals. The graph appeared to be right skewed, in which most number of data points were located in the bin with the lowest values, and least number of data points were located in the bin with the highest values. This suggests that most married couples in Ontario were content with their marriages, and that they were in good relationship with their spouses.

Two-Variable AnalysisThe unemployment rate of population between the ages of 25 and 44 in Ontario from 1984 to 2003 was placed on the x-axis, while the number of divorces per capita in Ontario over the same time interval was placed on the y-axis. A regression line was plotted to show the relationship.

Unemployment Rate vs. Number of Divorce percapita

y = -4E-05x + 0.0037

R2 = 0.0129

0.002

0.003

0.004

0.005

0.006

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Unemployment Rate in Ontario (%)

Div

orce

Rat

e (n

umbe

r of

divo

rces

/per

son)

Observations

• There appeared to be a very weak negative relationship between the two variables, with a coefficient of determination of 0.0129.

– The closer the value is to 1, the stronger the correlation.

Interpretations

• This weak relationship indicates that the financial stability of a family has little effect on the decision of a couple to get divorced, and occasionally, when the unemployment rate increases, the divorce rate actually decreases. It may be possible that during financially difficult times is when couples support each other and stay together. When the standard of living is stable and high, people become unsatisfied, and problems arise which may result in divorce.

Of the other five variables that were collected, other than the two variables that were the interests of the study, correlation graphs of other variables can also be created. The net financial debt of the Ontario provincial government and the rate of induced abortions were graphed using a scatter plot.

Ontario Financial Debt vs. Rate of InducedAbortions

y = 6103.7x - 39956R2 = 0.5838

30000

80000

130000

12 17 22

Rate of Induced Abortions (per 1000 females)

Net

Fin

anci

al D

ebt

($ m

illion

)

Observations

• The coefficient of determination, which indicates the strength of the relationship, was above 0.5, which indicates a moderately strong positive relationship between the two variables.

Interpretations

• When the government is in debt, it indicates a weak economy.

• When the economy is not strong, it may be reflected in elements such as decrease in employment rate and inflation resulting in increase in prices of products, which will decrease the standard of living of individuals.

• When a person is in financial difficulty, he/she may become unable to support a newborn child, so those who find themselves being pregnant may seek induced abortions as a solution.

Conclusions and consideration for a next project

• The hypothesis was that a strong correlation existed between the unemployment rate and number of divorce per capita.

• The observation was that there was no correlation between the two variables.

• The hypothesis was incorrect.

• In the next project, some other aspects of society can be considered, and find factors that have an effect on the rate of divorce.

Summary

• The primary interest of this project was to find possible causes for divorce in Ontario.

• Five variables were retrieved and modified, all of which contained data collected within Ontario:

– Rate of Induced Abortions– Unemployment rate– Number of divorce per capita– Rate of crimes of violence– Net financial debt of Ontario provincial government

• The hypothesis was that an increased unemployment rate would cause an increase in the number of divorce per capita.

• Through analysis of graphs, it was observed that there was no correlation between the two variables, so the hypothesis was proven to be false.

• A strong positive correlation was found to exist between the rate of induced abortions and the net financial debt of the provincial government.