Matt Kures Center for Community & Economic Development University of Wisconsin-Extension January 29, 2015 Economic Overview of Sauk County

Matt Kures

Center for Community & Economic DevelopmentUniversity of Wisconsin-Extension

January 29, 2015

Economic Overview of Sauk County

Using Economic and Demographic Data

Uses:

• Stimulate discussion;

• Affirm or challenge current perceptions;

• Identify local strengths and weaknesses;

• Recognize and prepare for change.

Considerations:

• Looking for patterns, not a single answer;

• More concerned with trends than precision;

• Focus more attention on comparing figures rather than ranking them.

An Emphasis on Economic AssetsHow many of these are available in or influenced by a single community?

• Human Capital - Knowledge and skills of the labor force, community residents, and local institutions;

• Research and Educational Institutions – Create innovation and develop human capital;

• Natural Capital – Assets that are inherent to geographic location such as weather, natural resources, and amenities;

• Industry Clusters and Concentrations - Industries that form the basis for regional competitiveness;

• Infrastructure – Highways, broadband, airports, etc.;

• Social Capital – Networks and connections among people and organizations;

• Quality of Life – Definition of QoL varies, but is an important factor driving where people and enterprises decide to locate;

• Others – Financial capital, political capital; regulatory environment, etc. Partially adapted from Flora and Emery (2006)

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

Population Growth Trends 1970 to 2013Percent Change in Population Since 1970

Sauk County

Dane County

State of Wisconsin

United States

Perc

ent C

hang

e Si

nce

1970

Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Columbia County

Dane County

Sauk County

State of Wisconsin

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0%

2.8%

7.6%

4.3%

4.5%

5.5%

6.8%

8.0%

1.5%

Population Change 2000 to 2010Components of Change

Natural Increase

Net Migration

Data Source: Wisconsin Department of Administration Demographic Services Center

2004 to 2005

2005 to 2006

2006 to 2007

2007 to 2008

2008 to 2009

2009 to 2010

2010 to 2011

2,400

2,500

2,600

2,700

2,800

2,900

3,000

3,100

3,200

Sauk County Migration Trends - 2004 to 2011

In-Migration

Out-Migration

Num

ber o

f Mig

rant

s

Data Source: IRS SOI County-to-County Migration

0 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 14

15 to 19

20 to 24

25 to 29

30 to 34

35 to 39

40 to 44

45 to 49

50 to 54

55 to 59

60 to 64

65 to 69

70 to 74

75 and Over

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50Sauk County Net Migration Rates by Age

2000s

1990s

1980s

1970s

Age Group

Net

Mig

ratio

n pe

r 100

Indi

vidu

als

Source: Age-Specific Net Migration Estimates for US Counties, 1950-2010. Applied Population Laboratory, UW-Madison, 2013

Worker Flow for Sauk County

Place of Residence Count Share

Sauk County, WI 14,756 50.3%

Dane County, WI 2,825 9.6%

Columbia County, WI 1,825 6.2%

Juneau County, WI 1,184 4.0%

Richland County, WI 999 3.4%

Adams County, WI 671 2.3%

Iowa County, WI 625 2.1%

Monroe County, WI 415 1.4%

Grant County, WI 373 1.3%

Vernon County, WI 362 1.2%

All Other Locations 5,290 18.0%

Place of Employment Count Share

Sauk County, WI 14,756 50.8%

Dane County, WI 5,705 19.6%

Columbia County, WI 2,870 9.9%

Milwaukee County, WI 1,005 3.5%

Waukesha County, WI 831 2.9%

Iowa County, WI 557 1.9%

Richland County, WI 358 1.2%

Fond du Lac County, WI 314 1.1%

Rock County, WI 302 1.0%

Juneau County, WI 296 1.0%


Employees Working in Sauk County County of Residence (n = 29,325)

Employees Residing in Sauk County County of Employment (n= 29,055)

Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau OnTheMap LODES Data

Worker Flow for the City of Reedsburg – 2011


City of Reedsburg 1,620 29.7%

City of Baraboo 185 3.4%

Town of Reedsburg 170 3.1%

Town of La Valle 149 2.7%

Town of Excelsior 143 2.6%

Town of Dellona 132 2.4%

Town of Winfield 111 2.0%

Town of Woodland 97 1.8%

City of Madison 75 1.4%

Town of Ironton 67 1.2%



City of Reedsburg 1,620 34.1%



City of Wisconsin Dells 282 5.9%

Town of Reedsburg 251 5.3%

Village of Lake Delton 179 3.8%

City of Dodgeville 105 2.2%

City of Milwaukee 103 2.2%

Town of Delton 58 1.2%

Town of La Valle 36 0.8%


Employees Working in the City of Reedsburg (n = 5,460) – Place of Residence

Employees Residing in the City of Reedsburg (n= 4,756) - Place of Employment


Worker Flow for Sauk City and Prairie du Sac


Village of Prairie du Sac 616 14.1%

Village of Sauk City 589 13.5%



Town of Prairie du Sac 140 3.2%

Town of Roxbury 116 2.7%

City of Lodi 112 2.6%

Town of Honey Creek 104 2.4%

Town of Cross Plains 84 1.9%

Town of Sumpter 78 1.8%




Village of Sauk City 624 14.4%

Village of Prairie du Sac 581 13.4%

Town of Prairie du Sac 247 5.7%


City of Middleton 200 4.6%

City of Milwaukee 100 2.3%

Village of Waunakee 77 1.8%

City of Lodi 58 1.3%

City of Wisconsin Dells 42 1.0%


Employees Working in Sauk City/Prairie du Sac(n = 4,362) – Place of Residence

Employees Residing in Sauk City/Prairie du Sac(n= 4,337) - Place of Employment


Age Distribution – 2010 Census

Age Group Sauk County State of Wisconsin United States

Age 25 to 54 40.9% 40.9% 41.2%

Age 15 to 64 65.4% 67.0% 67.1%

Total Population 61,976 5,686,986 308,745,538

Under 5 6.4% 6.3% 6.5%

5 to 14 13.2% 13.1% 13.3%

15 to 24 11.7% 13.8% 14.1%

25 to 34 12.5% 12.7% 13.3%

35 to 44 13.0% 12.8% 13.3%

45 to 54 15.4% 15.4% 14.6%

55 to 64 12.8% 12.3% 11.8%

65 to 74 7.7% 7.0% 7.0%

75 to 84 4.8% 4.5% 4.2%

85 or More 2.5% 2.1% 1.8%

Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Summary File 1

Sauk County Age Distribution Comparison – 2010 Census to 2030 Projection

Age Group Sauk County 2010 Sauk County 2030

Age 25 to 54 40.9% 36.7%

Age 15 to 64 65.4% 58.8%

Total Population 61,976 75,660

Under 5 6.4% 5.9%5 to 14 13.2% 12.5%15 to 24 11.7% 10.6%25 to 34 12.5% 11.1%35 to 44 13.0% 12.8%45 to 54 15.4% 12.8%55 to 64 12.8% 11.5%65 to 74 7.7% 12.1%75 to 84 4.8% 7.9%85 or More 2.5% 2.8%

Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Wisconsin Department of Administration

15.0% = 22.8% =

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 -

200

400

600

800

1,000

Convergence of the Population Age 18 and Age 65 in Sauk County - 2010 to 2040

Age 18

Age 65

YearData Source: Wisconsin Department of Administration Demographic Services Center

Transportation and Utilities

Public Administration

Education Services

Wholesale

Natural Resources & Mining

Health Care and Social Assistance

Retail

Other Services

Manufacturing

Financial Activities

Information

Total - All Industries

Professional & Business Services

Construction

Leisure & Hospitality

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%

30.4%

28.4%

28.3%

25.0%

25.0%

24.7%

24.0%

22.5%

22.5%

22.0%

21.5%

21.5%

19.3%

19.1%

12.3%

Workers Age 55 or Older by Industry (2012)Share of Industry Employment in Sauk County

Share of Industry EmploymentData Source: U.S. Census Bureau LED

Manufacturing

Retail





Education Services


Wholesale

Construction


Other Services


Information

0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500

Workers Age 55 or Older by Industry (2012)Total Number of Workers by Industry

Number of Workers Age 55 or OlderData Source: U.S. Census Bureau LED

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

2013-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Change in Manufacturing Employment from Prior Year and New Hires in Manufacturing

Change in Manufacturing Employment

New Hires in Manufactur-ing

Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau LED

Building Partnerships among Workforce Development Organizations and Stakeholders

• ED professionals need to develop

partnerships with the network of WD

organizations and understand their

respective roles;

• Economic development professionals

have an opportunity to serve as

intermediaries and entry points to the

WD system;

• Need leadership, a shared vision,

flexibility and common metrics;

• Partners are likely regional – labor force

and firms do not adhere to administrative

boundaries;

Examples of WD Organizations and

Stakeholders

• Community Colleges and Technical Schools

• K-12 System

• Universities

• Community and Faith-Based Organizations

• Social Service Agencies

• Economic Development and Workforce Development Organizations

• Employers

• Labor Organizations

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

160.0%

Change in Wage and Salary Employment 1970 to 2013Percent Change Since 1970

United States

State of Wisconsin

Sauk County

Perc

ent C

hang

e Si

nce

1970


21

Florida

Arizona

Alaska

Nevada

Utah

Montana

Colorado

North Dakota

Georgia

Wyoming

Idaho

Virginia

Texas

Oregon

Louisiana

Wisconsin

-10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0%

Components of Job Growth 15 States with the Greatest Employment Growth Rates (1995 to 2012)

Net Expansions

Net Openings

Net Relocations

Data Source: National Establishment Time Series Database extracted from YourEconomy.org

Green Lake

Marquette

Dodge

Jefferson

Sauk

Columbia

-20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0%

Components of Employment Growth – 1995 to 2012Sauk County and Selected Nearby Counties

Net Openings

Net Expansions

Net Relocations


Business Stages• Self-Employed (1 employee) - Small-scale business activity that can be conducted in homes as

well as sole proprietorships;

• Stage 1 (2-9 employees) – Includes partnerships, lifestyle businesses and startups. Often focused on defining a market, developing a product or service, obtaining capital and finding customers;

• Stage 2 (10-99 employees) – A company typically has a proven product, and survival is less of a daily concern. Companies begin to develop infrastructure and standardize operational systems. Leaders delegate more and wear fewer hats;

• Stage 3 (100-499 employees) - Expansion is a hallmark as companies broaden their geographic reach, add new products and pursue new markets. Stage 3 companies introduce formal processes and procedures, and the founder is less involved in daily operations and more concerned with managing culture and change;

• Stage 4 (500 or more employees) – By Stage 4, an organization is typically dominant in its industry and is focused on maintaining and defending its market position. Key objectives focus on tasks such as controlling expenses, raising productivity, increasing market penetration and managing market niches.

Source: Edward Lowe Foundation/YourEconomy.org

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

20130

50

100

150

200

250

Annual Number of Establishments Moving into South Central Wisconsin Counties - 1995 to 2013

Self-Employed (1)

Stage 1 (2-9)

Stage 2 (10-99)

Stage 3 (100-499)

Stage 4 (500+)

Num

ber o

f Est

ablis

hmen

ts


19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

20130

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

United States Employment 1995 to 2013Total Employment by Establishment Stage

Self-Employed (1) Stage 1 (2-9) Stage 2 (10-99) Stage 3 (100-499) Stage 4 (500+)

Tota

l Em

ploy

men

t


Share of Establishments Share of Employment0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Sauk County Share of Employment and Share of Estab-lishments by Stage (2013)

Self-Employed (1)

Stage 1 (2-9)

Stage 2 (10-99)

Stage 3 (100-499)

Stage 4 (500+)


Traditional and New Models of Economic Development

Traditional Model

Industrial Recruitment

Small Business Startups

Expansion

New Model

Attraction

Entrepreneurship

Retention

Source: Dabson (2003)27

Types of Entrepreneurs

Survival Entrepreneurs

• Subsistence income goals;

• Related to professional skill/knowledge;

• Tied to location not market opportunity.

Lifestyle Entrepreneurs

• Sacrifice business success for personal lifestyle choices;

• Typically service sector enterprises;

• Tied to location not market opportunity;

• Often successful, but limited growth and employment.

High Growth Entrepreneurs

• Profit and growth driven;

• Priority placed on maximizing market opportunities;

• Aggressively seeks our resources to fuel growth;

• Creates jobs, wealth, tax base and reinvests in community.

Intrapreneurs

• Spin-offs of existing firms to address new market opportunity.

Economic Development Organizations as Part of an Entrepreneurial Development System (EDS)

EDOs have many important roles in an entrepreneurial development system:

Help develop the entrepreneurial infrastructure – Broadband, physical locations, business service development (insurance, banking, real estate, etc.);

Identify current entrepreneurs in the region – Serve as a conduit to other service providers;

Workforce development;

EDOs can provide feedback on the effectiveness of entrepreneurial programs in the region;

Develop a “pipeline” of future entrepreneurs – provide entrepreneurial education, recognition, and outreach programs;

Provide potential support for specialized programs targeting a subset of entrepreneurs (e.g. Economic Gardening TM, Scale Up, etc.);

Source: Macke et al (2014), Center for Rural Entrepreneurship


Manufacturing

Retail




Education Services

Construction


Wholesale


Other Services


Information

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

Share of Total Employment by Industry (2013)

State of Wisconsin

Sauk County

Thinking about Niches or Specializations - Industry Categories with Highest Location Quotients in Sauk County

NAICS and Industry Description Sauk County Employment

Sauk County Location Quotient

South Central WI Location

Quotient326 Plastics & Rubber Product Mfg. 1,187 6.91 2.35

331 Primary Metal Mfg. 737 6.89 1.46

721 Accommodations 2,535 6.69 1.10

327 Non-metal Mineral Product Mfg. 664 6.50 1.16

323 Printing & Related Services 721 4.94 2.63

112 Livestock 1,318 4.75 1.94

442 Furniture & Home Furnishings 453 3.36 1.01

332 Fabricated Metal Product Mfg. 1,220 3.27 1.73

113 Forestry & Logging 96 3.08 0.29

454 Non-store Retailers 1,215 2.82 2.49

713 Amusement, Gambling and Recreation 1,357 2.63 1.01

115 Agriculture and Forestry Services 405 2.42 0.84

Dairy products – Cheese, fluid milk, butter, and dry, condensed & evaporated

Dairy products – Cheese, fluid milk, butter, and dry, condensed & evaporated

Sweeteners, flavorings, syrups and starches

Sweeteners, flavorings, syrups and starches

Flour, malt and grainsFlour, malt and grains

NutsNuts

EggsEggs

Unprocessed, processed and rendered animal products from cattle, poultry, pork

and seafood

Unprocessed, processed and rendered animal products from cattle, poultry, pork

and seafood

Seasonings and dressingsSeasonings and dressings

Oilseed products – Soy, oils, shortening and

margarine

Oilseed products – Soy, oils, shortening and

margarine

Vegetables and fruits – fresh and preserved

Vegetables and fruits – fresh and preserved

Fruit and Vegetable Preserving & Specialty Food Manufacturing

Fruit and Vegetable Preserving & Specialty Food Manufacturing

Animal Food Manufacturing

Animal Food Manufacturing Grain and Oilseed MillingGrain and Oilseed Milling

Sugar and Confectionery Product

Sugar and Confectionery Product

Dairy Product Manufacturing

Dairy Product Manufacturing

Other Food ManufacturingOther Food Manufacturing Animal Slaughtering and Processing

Animal Slaughtering and Processing

Seafood Product Preparation and Packaging

Seafood Product Preparation and Packaging

Bakeries and Tortilla Manufacturing

Bakeries and Tortilla Manufacturing

Plastic and Stainless Steel Fixtures, Repair & Service

Plastic and Stainless Steel Fixtures, Repair & Service

Legal, Accounting and Financial Services

Legal, Accounting and Financial Services

Engineering and Design Services

Engineering and Design Services

Industrial Machinery Leasing and Repair

Industrial Machinery Leasing and Repair

Industrial Process Instruments

Industrial Process Instruments

Soaps, Cleaning Compounds and Lubricants

Soaps, Cleaning Compounds and Lubricants

Plastic, Metal, Glass and Paperboard Packaging

Plastic, Metal, Glass and Paperboard Packaging

Transportation ServicesTransportation Services

WholesaleWholesale

PrintingPrinting

Sauk County as a Part of Regional Supply ChainsComputer Design and Programming Services

Computer Design and Programming Services

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

$-

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000 Annual Average Wage per Job 1970 to 2013 (in $2013)

Sauk County

United States

State of Wisconsin

Dane County

Ann

ual A

vera

ge W

age

per J

ob


1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

$-

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000 Per Capita Personal Income Trends 1970 to 2013 (in $2013)

Sauk County

Dane County

State of Wisconsin

United States

Per C

apit

a Pe

rson

al In

com

e


Examples of Regional Economic Development Activities

• Targeted Industry Development

• Government Affairs

• Marketing/Information Dissemination

• Supply Chain Development

• Export Assistance

• Infrastructure Development

• Workforce Development

• Entrepreneurial Development

• Networking/Social Capital Development

For More Information on Today’s Presentation

Matt KuresUniversity of Wisconsin-Extension

Center for Community & Economic Development

cced.ces.uwex.edutwitter.com/uwexcced

610 Langdon Street, Room 328, Madison, WI 53703Phone 608-265-8258 [email protected]

Documents

Matt Kures Center for Community & Economic Development University of Wisconsin-Extension January 29, 2015 Economic Overview of Sauk County