MATH 3339 Statistics for the Sciences - Introduction

MATH 3339Statistics for the Sciences

Introduction

Cathy Poliak, [email protected]

Department of MathematicsUniversity of Houston

Lecture 1

Cathy Poliak, Ph.D. [email protected] (Department of Mathematics University of Houston )First Class Lecture 1 1 / 28

Course Information

Instructor: Dr. Cathy Poliak

Webpage: http://www.math.uh.edu/~cathy/

Office: Fleming 11c

Office Hours: Wednesdays noon - 2:00 pm in the office and onlineusing link https://sas.elluminate.com/site/external/launch/meeting.jnlp?sid=2012056&password=M.2674037A83AACD7CDB271EFB939112

Email: [email protected]

Class time: Tuesdays and Thursdays 5:00 pm - 6:30 pm onlineusing previous link.


http://www.math.uh.edu/~cathy/

https://sas.elluminate.com/site/external/launch/meeting.jnlp?sid=2012056&password=M.2674037A83AACD7CDB271EFB939112



Relevance of statistics

Statistics is used to gather and analyze data for any discipline.(This is Statistics: http://thisisstatistics.org)

Statistics is used to analyze surveyshttp://www.gallup.com/home.aspx


http://thisisstatistics.org

http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

What is Statistics?

Statistics is used to make intelligent decisions in a world full ofuncertainty. "A knowledge of statistics provides the necessary toolto differentiate between sound statistical conclusions andquestionable conclusions." (Business Statistics Communicatingwith Numbers, Jaggia and Kelly, 2013, pg 4)

Statistics is the science of collecting, organizing, and interpretingnumerical facts which we call data.


A young fellow from

had committed a grievous crime. Cathy Poliak, Ph.D. [email protected] (Department of Mathematics University of Houston )First Class Lecture 1 5 / 28

He had murdered his

In Texas there is no excuse for murdering a horse. If the jury finds you guilty there is only one punishment. Hanging.


On the day of his hanging the warden talked to the prisoner and said, “I am one of the few wardens that follows the law of 1889, and the law requires that I gather a random sample of 100 Texans.”

The warden dragged the prisoner to the auditorium and sure enough there were 100 Texans sitting there. The warden said, “ The law requires that I now give you an hour to speak to these people.”

The prisoner said, “I have nothing to say.”


Whereupon a professor in the audience stood up and said, “ I don’t think the people of Texas know enough about statistics. If you are not going to use the hour, would you mind if I use it to educate these people about statistics?”

The prisoner said, “ No, go ahead.”

But the prisoner turned to the warden and said,

“BUT HANG ME FIRST!”


What Will Be Taught In This Course?

1. Some tools in statistics requires the "chance" of an eventhappening. Thus we will also study a little bit of probability.

2. Statistical methods can be used to summarize or describe acollection of data; this is called descriptive statistics. This isuseful in research, when communicating the results ofexperiments.

3. In addition, patterns in the data may be modeled in a way thataccounts for randomness and uncertainty in the observations, andare then used to draw inferences about the process or populationbeing studied; this is called inferential statistics. Inference is avital element of scientific advance, since it provides a prediction.

See lecture schedule in the syllabus.


Learning Objectives

The student will be able to:Demonstrate the ability to understand basic theory of probabilityand statistics.

Understand fundamentals of probability, distribution theory andsampling models.

Interpret statistical data.

Understand statistical inference and interpretation.

Apply statistical concepts to actual scientific data.


Assessments

Discussion Board 5%

Online Quizzes 10%

Homework 10%

2 Exams 50%

Final Exam 25%


Exams

Exam Sections Covered DatesExam 1 1.1 - 4.9 & 9.1 - 9.2 June 22 & 24Exam 2 5.1 - 10.5 July 12 & 13Final Exam Comprehensive July 23 & 24


Instructions of Exams

These exams have to be proctored and cannot just be taken athome online.

You can choose to take the exams either on campus through theCASA testing center or off campus at another testing facility. Seethe syllabus for more information.

There is no opt-out for the final exam.

The score on the final exam can replace your lowest test score.


Taking the Exams On Campus

You will have to schedule a time to take the exams by logging intoCourseware.

Make note of where the exam is going to be there are threelocations of the testing center.

The scheduler will be available approximately 1 weeks prior to thestart of the exam cycle.


Taking the Exams Off Campus

You get to pick another procotor.

Fill out a proctoring request form through the Online & SpecialPrograms Office; http://www.uh.edu/online/students/proctoring-exam-form.php.

The Online & Special Programs Office will work with me and yourproctor for coordinating the exams.


http://www.uh.edu/online/students/proctoring-exam-form.php

http://www.uh.edu/online/students/proctoring-exam-form.php

Quizzes

The quizzes are taken through the CourseWare website. Under"online assignments"

The quizzes will close every Saturday at 11:59 pm starting onJune 8.

See your syllabus for the closed dates.

One of the lowest quizzes will be dropped.

You have up to 20 times to take each quiz.

There is a 90 minute time limit for each quiz.

Taking the quizzes until you get it right is essential to helping youdo well on the exams and the homework.


Homework

See CASA website and the syllabus for due dates of homework.

Each homework assignment is worth 15 points.

You will submit the homework in the CASA CourseWare website.See Instructions to upload homework in CASA for how to uploadthe homework on the CASA webpage.

Two of the lowest homework scores will be dropped.


Discussion Board

Since this is an online environment, there are no attendance policies.Regular participation on the course website is expected. This includeswatching the lectures online, attending office hours (online or in person)and participating in discussion forums.

The discussion board is in the CASA CourseWare course website. Justabove the link to the textbook.

This is worth 5 points each week and the assessment is as follows:5 points: For posting a question or responding to a question and readingat least 75% of the posts.4 points: For reading at least 90% of the posts.3 points: For reading at least 50% of the posts.2 points: For reading at least 10% of the posts.1 point: For reading at least one post.

The instructor will look at the discussion board every Tuesday morningsand will grade according to the difference of what your performance wasfrom last week.

Two of the lowest weekly discussion board points will be dropped.


Textbook

The textbook, online quizzes, and additional help materials will bemade available by logging into CourseWare athttp://www.casa.uh.edu.

The first portion of these materials are freely available for the firsttwo weeks of class.

All students must purchase a Course Access Code and enter it onCourseWare no later than Wednesday January 30th to continueaccessing the course learning materials.

A Course Access Code must be purchased for $55 using this linkhttps://www.casa.uh.edu/bnpg.

You have to purchase this once you start the process and thecode will be automatically applied to your CASA account. You willnot have to enter this code into CASA.


http://www.casa.uh.edu

https://www.casa.uh.edu/bnpg

Computer Software

Knowledge of a statistical package is an indispensable part of themodern statistics. The class presentations, some homeworkassignments, and the exams are computer based.

The statistical package R-studio is used in this class for exploringstatistical concepts and demonstrating statistical analysis of actualdata useful for business decisions. No previous knowledge of thissoftware is assumed.

This software is a free package that you can download on to yourpersonal computer. This will be available to you for your exams inCASA.

I You first need to download R:http://cran.cnr.berkeley.edu/, this is the program.

I Then you can download Rstudio: https://www.rstudio.com/,this is the interface we will be using.


http://cran.cnr.berkeley.edu/

https://www.rstudio.com/

Other Information

This is a challenging course. Each student is responsible for his/herlearning. If a section of the textbook and/or homework problem ispuzzling you, it is your responsibility to make an appointment to seethe instructor or a tutor as soon as possible. You are encouraged toask questions during lectures and office hours. The following are therecourses available to you for help in this course.

Instructor: You are always welcome in the instructor’s office forhelp. If the office hours are not convenient for you just email theinstructor to set up an appointment. Allow 24 hours in advance forappointments.Math 3xxx Tutoring Center Fleming 11, times of tutors to beannounced later.


A Data Set: Course Grades From Previous Sessionhttps://www.math.uh.edu/~cathy/Math3339/data/grades.txt

Student Score Grade Tests Quiz HW Opt-out Session1 100.707 A 99.233 87.308 101.270 yes Sp162 81.310 B 75 98.231 64.444 yes Sp163 8.194 F 14.667 12.769 3.175 no Sp164 90.449 A 91.533 77.231 82.222 yes Sp165 68.461 D 65.783 81.769 68.571 no Sp166 103.955 A 103.32 97.923 101.905 yes Sp167 92.889 A 95.6 85.923 75.556 no Sp168 84.805 B 83.2 79.385 75.238 yes Sp169 91.640 A 89.967 91.231 85.079 yes Sp16

10 22.316 F 17.433 40.615 44.444 no Sp1611 98.363 A 94.167 99.231 101.587 yes Sp1612 49.250 F 43.917 73.077 78.095 no Sp1613 16.967 F 15.5 20.077 29.841 no Sp1614 50.747 F 45.533 67.385 57.460 no Sp1615 43.184 F 72.983 47.462 38.413 no Sp1616 100.845 A 98.667 96.231 100.317 yes Sp1617 84.195 B 77.5 87.154 95.556 yes Sp1618 84.400 B 78.733 78.615 82.540 yes Sp1619 67.170 D 74.3 68.538 72.063 no Fal1520 87.413 B 92 82.077 77.778 yes Fal1521 67.899 D 71.8 71.077 84.127 no Fal1522 74.676 C 70.083 83.308 73.016 no Fal1523 40.054 F 44.133 21.308 33.333 no Fal1524 101.014 A 101.08 98.923 95.873 no Fal1525 11.972 F 17.1 10.385 3.810 no Fal1526 79.831 B 86.233 71.923 46.667 no Fal1527 83.301 B 94.6 69.692 60.317 no Fal1528 72.299 C 64.967 67.615 99.394 no Sum1629 83.821 B 77.2 80.923 83.030 yes Sum1630 90.703 A 83.617 87.923 80.000 no Sum16


https://www.math.uh.edu/~cathy/Math3339/data/grades.txt

Types of data

Population Datai s everything or everyone we want informationabout. It is a set of data that consists of all possible valuespertaining to a certain set of observations or an investigation.

Sample Data is a subset of the population that we haveinformation from. It is just a small section of the population takenfor the purpose of investigation.


Examples of Types of Data

Identify the population and the sample for each of the following:University of Houston is interested in how many students buyused books as opposed to new ones. They randomly choose 100students at the student center to interview

I Population -

I Sample -An elementary school is creating a new lunch menu. They sendquestionnaires to students with last names that begin with theletters M through R.

I Population -

I Sample -


Two Types of Variables

Go back to the example of grades. We have several variables, score,grade, tests, quiz, hw, opt-out, & session.

The variables grade, opt-out, & session are categoricalvariables. Categorical variables place a case into one of severalgroups or categories.The variables scores, tests, quiz & hw is a quantitativevariable. Quantitative Variables take numerical values for whicharithmetic operations such as adding and averaging make sense.


Two Types of Quantitative Variables

Quantitative variables can be classified as either discrete orcontinuous.

Discrete quantitative variables - a countable set of values.

Continuous quantitative variables - data that can take on anyvalues within some interval.


Examples of Variables

Classify the following variables as categorical or quantitative. Ifquantitative, state whether the variable is discrete or continuous.

Political preference.

Number of siblings.


Examples of Variables Part 2

Classify the following variables as categorical or quantitative. Ifquantitative, state whether the variable is discrete or continuous.

Blood type.

Height of men on a professional basketball team.

Time it takes to be on hold when calling the IRS at tax time.


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MATH 3339 Statistics for the Sciences - Introduction