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www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
March 17, 2016
Market Cues
Indian market is expected to open in green tracking SGX Nifty & other global peers.
U.S. markets moved up on Wednesday, with S&P 500 and Dow reaching new highs
of 2016, after Fed kept its key interest rates unchanged and downgraded its forecast
for number of rate increases to 2 in 2016 from the earlier projected 4. Also, U.S.
inflation increased more than expected in Feb as rents and medical costs maintained
their upward trend. Further, housing market continued its strength last month and
manufacturing stabilized. Rise in energy shares, as oil futures climbed up on hopes
of output freeze, lifted up the S&P 500.
FTSE 100 moved upwards, helped by upward movement seen across oil giants, BP
and Royal Dutch Shell. Movement in the Energy companies was owing to run-up in
the oil prices.
Indian markets bounced back in the last hour of trade with Nifty reclaiming 7,500
intraday mark on Wednesday, ahead of the outcome of Fed's meeting. Private sector
banks, FMCG and select technology stocks helped the market re-bound.
News & Result Analysis
M-Life wins arbitrage case relating to acquisition of property
OVL, IOC consortium to buy Russian oil fields for $4.2bn
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Refer Pg5 onwards
Top Picks
Company Sector Rating CMP
(`) Target
(`) Upside
(%)
Amara Raja Batteries Auto & Auto Ancillary Buy 901 1,040 15.4
HCL Tech IT Buy 815 1,038 27.4
LIC Housing Finance Financials Buy 446 592 32.7
Bharat Electronics Capital Goods Buy 1,065 1,414 32.8
Navkar Corporation Others Buy 168 265 58.1
More Top Picks on Pg4
Key Upcoming Events
Date Region Event Description
Previous
Reading
Consensus
Expectations
Mar 17 EUR Core CPI (YoY) (Feb) 0.7% 0.7%
Mar 17 GBP Interest Rate Decision (Mar) 0.50% 0.50%
Mar 17 USD Initial Jobless Claims 259k 268k
Mar 17 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar) -2.8 -1.7
6.(
Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
BSE Sensex 0.5 131 24,682
Nifty 0.5 38 7,499
Mid Cap (0.4) (42) 10,180
Small Cap (0.2) (17) 10,239
Bankex 0.9 154 17,603
Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
Dow Jones 0.4 74 17,326
Nasdaq 0.7 35 4,764
FTSE 0.6 36 6,175
Nikkei (0.8) (143) 16,974
Hang Seng (0.2) (31) 20,258
Shanghai Com 0.2 6 2,870
Advances / Declines BSE NSE
Advances 1,150 506
Declines 1,435 1,037
Unchanged 161 79
Volumes (` Cr)
BSE 2,369
NSE 14,528
Net Inflows (` Cr) Net Mtd Ytd
FII (27) 11,238 (22,610)
MFs (275) (3,364) 77,282
Top Gainers Price (`) Chg (%)
Aloktext 5 20.0
Den 96 15.2
Persistent 663 8.3
Hathway 40 6.9
Alstomt&D 420 6.0
Top Losers Price (`) Chg (%)
Rajeshexpo 573 (11.7)
Eichermot 18,703 (4.3)
Punjlloyd 22 (3.7)
Wabag 508 (3.5)
Finolexind 357 (3.3)
As on March 16, 2016
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook March 17, 2016
M-Life wins arbitrage case relating to acquisition of property
M-Lifespace (M-Life) has informed that it has won favourable arbitrage ruling with regards to the acquisition of South Mumbai property. Since 2011, M-Life is pursuing arbitration proceedings with Orbit Corp., Rishi Gagan Trust & others (‘vendors”), with regards to this property acquisition.
Earlier M-Life had acquired the redevelopment rights to this property on closing the deal which was valued at `270cr. Of the total transaction, already `100cr of the payment has been made.
With such favourable ruling, M-Life can go ahead with the acquisition of this 13,000 sq ft. property. The company is waiting to start the re-development activity before obligations are completed by the vendors.
Also, in another development, M-Life is planning to build 300 acres industrial park near Ahmedabad, Gujarat. All the approvals with regard to this project are in place. Currently this project is in advanced stages and is in the land pooling phase. This project would be majorly manufacturing hub, with homes for medium and junior management workers.
This would be company’s fourth industrial park project, after their flagship Chennai SEZ project, North Chennai project (work is yet to start) and Jaipur SEZ project.
Also, M-Life signed memorandum of understanding with Gujarat government in 2011 for another 3,000acre industrial project in Dholera and is still awaiting land from state government. The plan is to set up integrated business city at Dholera special investment region with investment of ~`2,000cr.
Acquisition of Mumbai re-development project and Ahmedabad Industrial park in our view would take few more quarters to materialise. We do not expect any material impact from these projects in the near term, except for payments with regards to completion of the acquisition.
We maintain our BUY rating on the stock with price target of `554.
OVL, IOC consortium to buy Russian oil fields for $4.2bn
ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL) and Indian Oil Corp (IOCL) led consortium today signed agreement to buy stake in 2 Russian oilfields in Siberia for an estimated $4.2bn (over `28,253cr).
In Sep-2015, OVL had bought 15% stake in Vankor for $1.26bn. The MoU had envisaged stake going-up in Siberian oilfield to 26% by paying an additional $925 mn.
IOC, Oil India (OIL) and a unit of Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd (BPCL) signed the purchase agreement for 29.9% stake in Tass-Yuriakh oilfield from Russia's Rosneft for $1.28bn. These 3 firms would equally split 29.9% the Rosneft’s stake in Taas-Yuriah oilfield. The consortium also signed Heads of Agreement (HoA) with Rosneft for taking 23.9% stake in Vankor oilfield for just over $2bn. IOC-led consortium also signed another MoU with Rosneft for exploring taking stake in development of Vankor cluster fields of Suzunskoye, Tagulskoye and Lodochnoye.
3
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
March 17, 2016
The IOC-OIL-BPCL deal for 29.9% stake in Tass-Yuriakh oilfield is concluded
agreement, consortium's Vankor deal is initial pact and sale purchase agreement
is yet to be concluded. Similarly, OVL's increase in stake in Vankor too is yet to be
concluded.
Taas-Yuriah oilfield, holds recoverable reserves of 137mn tons, currently produces
20,000 bpd (barrels per day). The output is slated to rise to 100,000 bpd in 2
years, with IOC-OIL-BPCL expected to pay another $180mn as its share of future
capex.
We currently have BUY rating on IOCL with price target of `455.
Economic and Political News
Land Bill panel granted 6th extension
I-T dept eases rules to woo offshore fund managers
Gas-based power plants forego subsidy in reverse auction
Corporate News
Blackstone emerges as strong contender to acquire Mphasis
Idea completes deployment of 4G services in 10 of the 22 license areas
CTU separation from Power Grid under cloud
VST Tillers signs MoU with Karnataka govt.
Financial Technologies exits its 13% stake in DGCX
4
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
March 17, 2016
Top Picks
Large Cap
Company Market Cap
(` Cr)
CMP
(`) Target
(`) Upside
(%) Rationale
Amara Raja Batteries 15,397 901 1,040 15.4
To outpace battery industry growth due to better technological
products leading to market share gains in both the automotive
OEM and replacement segments.
Ashok Leyland 27,335 96 111 15.6
Earnings to grow strongly given the MHCV cyclical upturn.
Focus on exports and LCV's provides additional growth
avenue.
Bharat Electronics 25,562 1,065 1,414 32.8
Uptick in defense capex by government when coupled with
BELs strong market positioning, indicate that good times are
ahead for BEL.
HCL Tech 114,848 815 1,038 27.4 The stock is trading at attractive valuations and is factoring all
the bad news.
HDFC Bank 260,533 1,031 1,262 22.5
Strong visibility for a robust 20% earnings trajectory, coupled
with high quality of earnings on account of high quality retail
business and strategic focus on highly rated corporates.
Infosys 265,472 1,152 1,347 16.9 Back on the growth trend, expect a long term growth of 14%
to be a US$20bn in FY2020.
LIC Housing Finance 22,503 446 592 32.7
LICHF continues to grow its retail loan book at a healthy pace
with improvement in asset quality. We expect the company to
post a healthy loan book which is likely to reflect in a strong
earnings growth.
NBCC 11,497 958 1,089 13.7
Huge bid pipeline of re-development works at Delhi and other
State Governments and opportunity from Smart City, positions
NBCC to report strong growth, going forward.
TVS Motors 13,488 284 330 16.2 New launches to enable outpace industry growth; margins
expansion to boost earnings.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Mid Cap
Company Market Cap
(` Cr)
CMP
(`) Target
(`) Upside
(%) Rationale
Blue Star 3,199 356 439 23.4
Favourable outlook for the AC industry to augur well for
Cooling products business which is out pacing the market
growth. EMPPAC division's profitability to improve once
operating environment turns around.
IL&FS Transport 2,327 71 93 31.4 Commencement of new projects, downtrend in the interest rate
cycle, to lead to stock re-rating
Jagran Prakashan 4,783 146 189 29.2
Economic recovery to have favourable impact on advertising &
circulation revenue growth. Further, the acquisition of a radio
business (Radio City) would also boost the company's revenue
growth.
Mahindra Lifespace 1,770 431 554 28.4 Speedier execution and speedier sales, strong revenue visibilty
in short-to-long run, attractive valuations
Navkar Corporation 2,391 168 265 58.1 Massive capacity expansion along with rail advantage at ICD
as well CFS augurs well for the company
Radico Khaitan 1,291 97 156 60.7
Earnings boost on back of stable material prices and
favourable pricing environment. Valuation discount to peers
provides additional comfort
Siyaram Silk Mills 919 980 1,354 38.2
Strong brands and distribution network would boost growth
going ahead. Stock currently trades at an inexpensive
valuation.
Source: Company, Angel Research
h
1
Market Outlook
March 17, 2016
www.angelbroking.com www.angelbroking.com
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
Source: RBI, Angel Research
4.5
6.7
7.8
6.4
5.8
7.5
8.3
6.6 6.7
7.6 7.7 7.3
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
4Q
FY13
1Q
FY14
2Q
FY14
3Q
FY14
4Q
FY14
1Q
FY15
2Q
FY15
3Q
FY15
4Q
FY15
1Q
FY16
2Q
FY16
3Q
FY16
(%)
4.8
2.5 3.0 2.5 4.2 4.3
6.3
3.7
9.9
(3.4)
(1.3)
(6.0)
(4.0)
(2.0)
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Feb-1
5
Mar-
15
Apr-
15
May-
15
Jun-1
5
Jul-15
Aug
-15
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
Nov-
15
Dec-
15
(%)
5.4 5.3 4.9 5.0
5.4
3.7 3.7
4.4
5.0 5.4 5.6 5.7
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Feb-1
5
Mar-
15
Apr-
15
May-
15
Jun-1
5
Jul-15
Aug-1
5
Sep-1
5
Oct
-15
Nov-
15
Dec-
15
Jan-1
6
(%)
44.0
46.0
48.0
50.0
52.0
54.0
56.0 Ja
n-1
5
Feb-1
5
Mar-
15
Apr-
15
May-
15
Jun-1
5
Jul-15
Aug-1
5
Sep-1
5
Oct
-15
Nov-
15
Dec-
15
Jan-1
6
Feb-1
6
Mfg. PMI Services PMI
(35.0)
(30.0)
(25.0)
(20.0)
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
0.0
Feb
-15
Mar-
15
Apr-
15
May-
15
Jun-1
5
Jul-15
Aug
-15
Sep-1
5
Oct
-15
Nov-
15
Dec-
15
Jan-1
6
Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
8.00
Mar-
15
Apr-
15
May-
15
Jun-1
5
Jun-1
5
Jul-15
Aug
-15
Aug
-15
Sep-1
5
Oct
-15
Oct
-15
Nov-
15
Dec-
15
Dec-
15
Jan-1
6
Feb-1
6Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR (%)
h
2
Market Outlook
March 17, 2016
www.angelbroking.com www.angelbroking.com
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2015 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
Source: IMF, Angel Research
(5.9)
(4.1)
5.3
6.8
0.6
5.0 4.5
2.8 1.9 1.9 2.1
1.4 0.7
(8.0)
(6.0)
(4.0)
(2.0)
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Bra
zil
Russ
ia
India
Chin
a
South
Afr
ica
Indonesi
a
Mala
ysia
Thailand
UK
USA
Germ
any
Fra
nce
Japan
(%)
(3.0)(3.8)
7.3 6.8
1.4
4.7 4.7
2.5 2.5 2.6
1.5 1.2 0.6
(6.0)
(4.0)
(2.0)
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Bra
zil
Russ
ia
India
Chin
a
South
Afr
ica
Indonesi
a
Mala
ysia
Thaila
nd
UK
USA
Germ
any
Fra
nce
Japan
(%)
12.2
5.8
17.7
12.2
19.0
17.7
15.3
14.0
15.3
15.8
12.0
13.3
13.8
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
Bra
zil
Russia
Ind
ia
Ch
ina
So
uth
A
fric
a
Ind
onesi
a
Mala
ysia
Th
ailand
UK
US
A
Germ
an
y
Fra
nce
Jap
an
(x)
h
3
Market Outlook
March 17, 2016
www.angelbroking.com www.angelbroking.com
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country Name of index Closing price 1M 3M 1YR
Brazil Bovespa 47,763 19.1 7.5 (2.9)
Russia Micex 1,871 9.3 8.0 16.2
India Nifty 7,499 7.4 (2.0) (14.6)
China Shanghai Composite 2,870 1.5 (16.7) (12.4)
South Africa Top 40 46,826 5.5 7.9 1.2
Mexico Mexbol 44,751 3.6 6.8 0.9
Indonesia LQ45 849 3.0 11.6 (10.9)
Malaysia KLCI 1,693 2.6 1.4 (5.4)
Thailand SET 50 883 9.8 8.9 (14.5)
USA Dow Jones 17,326 8.5 0.4 (4.2)
UK FTSE 6,175 6.0 5.1 (11.3)
Japan Nikkei 16,974 5.9 (10.9) (9.7)
Germany DAX 9,983 8.4 (3.4) (16.1)
France CAC 4,463 8.5 (3.3) (12.3)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( ₹cr ) OPM(%) EPS (₹) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)
( ₹ ) Price ( ₹) ( ₹ cr ) FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E
Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis Neutral 165 - 3,205 2,097 2,415 14.4 14.4 9.5 11.0 17.4 15.0 3.5 3.0 21.1 21.3 1.5 1.3
United Phosphorus Accumulate 431 480 18,462 12,500 14,375 18.3 18.3 29.8 35.9 14.5 12.0 2.7 2.2 20.0 20.3 1.6 1.3
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Ashok Leyland Accumulate 96 111 27,335 17,995 21,544 11.4 11.6 3.4 4.7 28.3 20.4 5.0 4.6 17.7 22.2 1.5 1.2
Bajaj Auto Accumulate 2,250 2,585 65,097 22,709 25,860 20.9 20.1 129.0 143.6 17.4 15.7 5.4 4.6 30.7 29.4 2.5 2.2
Bharat Forge Accumulate 809 875 18,833 7,351 8,318 19.9 19.7 31.2 36.5 25.9 22.2 4.6 3.9 19.3 19.2 2.7 2.4
Eicher Motors Neutral 18,693 - 50,774 15,556 16,747 15.5 17.3 464.8 597.5 40.2 31.3 14.7 10.8 36.2 34.3 3.4 3.1
Gabriel India Buy 85 101 1,223 1,415 1,544 8.7 9.0 4.6 5.4 18.5 15.8 3.4 3.0 18.1 18.9 0.9 0.8
Hero Motocorp Neutral 2,798 - 55,872 28,244 30,532 15.5 15.9 156.7 168.5 17.9 16.6 7.1 6.1 39.9 36.4 1.8 1.7
Jamna Auto Industries Buy 129 160 1,032 1,281 1,473 11.2 11.5 7.6 9.2 17.0 14.0 4.3 3.5 25.4 25.2 0.9 0.8
L G Balakrishnan & Bros Neutral 425 - 668 1,254 1,394 11.6 11.8 35.9 41.7 11.9 10.2 1.6 1.4 13.5 13.8 0.6 0.6
Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate 1,212 1,364 75,298 38,416 42,904 13.7 13.9 54.8 63.4 22.1 19.1 3.4 3.0 15.4 15.8 1.6 1.4
Maruti Neutral 3,666 - 110,753 57,865 68,104 16.4 16.7 176.3 225.5 20.8 16.3 4.0 3.4 19.4 21.2 1.7 1.4
Minda Industries Accumulate 936 1,047 1,484 2,523 2,890 8.7 9.0 55.0 65.4 17.0 14.3 3.3 2.7 19.3 18.7 0.7 0.6
Motherson Sumi Buy 242 313 31,950 39,343 45,100 8.8 9.1 10.1 12.5 23.9 19.3 7.6 5.9 35.3 34.4 0.9 0.8
Rane Brake Lining Buy 367 465 291 454 511 11.5 12.0 25.2 31.0 14.6 11.9 2.2 2.0 14.9 16.6 0.8 0.7
Setco Automotive Neutral 33 - 434 594 741 12.7 13.7 1.7 3.2 19.1 10.2 2.0 1.7 10.4 16.9 1.1 0.9
Tata Motors Neutral 360 - 103,896 259,686 273,957 13.0 13.4 25.9 29.5 13.9 12.2 1.8 1.6 8.0 9.0 0.6 0.6
TVS Motor Accumulate 284 330 13,488 11,263 13,122 6.9 8.5 9.2 15.0 30.9 18.9 7.0 5.6 22.7 29.6 1.2 1.0
Amara Raja Batteries Buy 901 1,040 15,397 4,892 5,871 17.4 17.6 28.8 37.1 31.3 24.3 7.3 5.9 23.4 24.1 3.1 2.5
Exide Industries Buy 135 162 11,437 6,950 7,784 14.4 14.8 6.6 7.3 20.4 18.4 2.6 2.3 12.6 12.8 1.3 1.2
Apollo Tyres Accumulate 168 183 8,572 12,056 12,714 17.2 16.4 23.0 20.3 7.3 8.3 1.3 1.1 17.7 13.6 0.8 0.8
Ceat Accumulate 1,079 1,119 4,363 6,041 6,597 14.1 13.7 99.5 111.9 10.8 9.6 2.1 1.8 19.6 18.5 0.9 0.7
JK Tyres Neutral 79 - 1,795 7,446 7,669 15.2 14.0 19.6 18.4 4.0 4.3 1.0 0.8 25.2 19.5 0.6 0.6
Swaraj Engines Accumulate 845 919 1,049 552 630 14.2 14.7 44.6 54.1 18.9 15.6 4.4 4.0 23.2 25.6 1.8 1.5
Subros Neutral 84 - 506 1,293 1,527 11.8 11.9 4.2 6.7 20.1 12.6 1.5 1.4 7.7 11.5 0.7 0.6
Indag Rubber Neutral 168 - 441 283 329 17.0 17.2 13.0 15.4 13.0 10.9 2.8 2.4 21.8 21.6 1.3 1.1
Capital Goods
ACE Neutral 37 - 364 660 839 4.7 8.2 1.0 3.9 36.8 9.4 1.2 1.0 3.2 11.3 0.7 0.6
BEML Accumulate 1,032 1,157 4,299 3,277 4,006 6.0 8.9 36.2 64.3 28.5 16.1 2.0 1.8 5.7 11.7 1.4 1.1
Bharat Electronics Buy 1,065 1,414 25,562 7,737 8,634 16.8 17.2 54.0 61.5 19.7 17.3 2.8 2.5 39.3 45.6 2.5 2.1
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March 17, 2016
Stock Watch
Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( ₹cr ) OPM(%) EPS (₹) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)
( ₹ ) Price ( ₹) ( ₹ cr ) FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E
Capital Goods
Voltas Buy 247 353 8,184 5,363 5,963 8.0 9.1 11.0 13.8 22.5 17.9 3.5 3.0 16.2 17.9 1.5 1.3
BGR Energy Neutral 102 - 736 3,615 3,181 9.5 9.4 16.7 12.4 6.1 8.2 0.6 0.6 10.0 7.0 0.6 0.8
BHEL Neutral 106 - 26,030 33,722 35,272 10.8 11.7 10.5 14.2 10.1 7.5 0.8 0.7 7.0 9.0 0.8 0.8
Blue Star Buy 356 439 3,199 3,548 3,977 6.3 6.9 13.7 17.2 26.0 20.7 6.5 4.2 26.1 25.4 0.9 0.8
Crompton Greaves Neutral 47 - 2,933 13,484 14,687 4.9 6.2 4.5 7.1 10.4 6.6 0.7 0.7 7.2 10.8 0.8 0.7
Greaves Cotton Neutral 123 - 3,010 1,655 1,755 16.6 16.8 7.4 7.8 16.7 15.8 3.3 3.2 21.1 20.6 1.8 1.7
Inox Wind Buy 266 458 5,902 4,980 5,943 17.0 17.5 26.6 31.6 10.0 8.4 3.0 2.2 35.0 30.0 1.3 1.0
KEC International Neutral 118 - 3,039 8,791 9,716 6.1 6.8 5.4 8.2 21.9 14.4 2.2 2.0 10.0 14.0 0.6 0.5
Thermax Neutral 761 - 9,071 6,413 7,525 7.4 8.5 30.5 39.3 25.0 19.4 3.8 3.3 15.0 17.0 1.4 1.1
Cement
ACC Neutral 1,238 - 23,234 13,151 14,757 16.4 18.3 63.9 83.4 19.4 14.8 2.5 2.3 13.3 16.1 1.6 1.3
Ambuja Cements Neutral 206 - 31,938 11,564 12,556 19.4 20.7 8.9 10.1 23.1 20.4 2.9 2.7 12.8 13.8 2.3 2.1
HeidelbergCement Neutral 73 - 1,657 1,772 1,926 13.3 15.4 1.0 3.0 73.1 24.4 1.9 1.7 2.6 7.9 1.5 1.3
India Cements Neutral 77 - 2,365 4,216 4,840 18.0 19.5 4.0 9.9 19.3 7.8 0.8 0.7 4.0 9.5 0.9 0.7
JK Cement Neutral 598 - 4,182 3,661 4,742 10.1 15.8 7.5 28.5 79.8 21.0 2.4 2.1 7.5 22.9 1.6 1.2
J K Lakshmi Cement Neutral 305 - 3,591 2,947 3,616 16.7 19.9 11.5 27.2 26.5 11.2 2.5 2.2 9.8 20.8 1.6 1.3
Mangalam Cements Neutral 192 - 512 1,053 1,347 10.5 13.3 8.4 26.0 22.8 7.4 1.0 0.9 4.3 12.5 0.8 0.6
Orient Cement Neutral 137 - 2,803 1,854 2,524 21.2 22.2 7.7 11.1 17.8 12.3 2.6 2.2 13.3 15.7 2.3 1.6
Ramco Cements Neutral 390 - 9,287 4,036 4,545 20.8 21.3 15.1 18.8 25.8 20.8 3.2 2.8 12.9 14.3 2.8 2.4
Shree Cement^ Neutral 11,448 - 39,883 7,150 8,742 26.7 28.6 228.0 345.5 50.2 33.1 7.4 6.2 15.7 20.3 5.2 4.2
UltraTech Cement Neutral 2,974 - 81,625 24,669 29,265 18.2 20.6 82.0 120.0 36.3 24.8 3.9 3.4 11.3 14.7 3.4 2.9
Construction
ITNL Buy 71 93 2,327 7,360 8,825 34.0 35.9 7.0 9.0 10.1 7.9 0.3 0.3 3.2 3.7 3.7 3.6
KNR Constructions Buy 499 603 1,402 937 1,470 14.3 14.0 44.2 38.6 11.3 12.9 2.3 2.0 15.4 15.4 1.6 1.1
Larsen & Toubro Accumulate 1,183 1,310 110,180 58,870 65,708 8.3 10.3 42.0 53.0 28.2 22.3 2.0 1.8 8.8 11.2 2.1 1.9
Gujarat Pipavav Port Neutral 159 - 7,694 629 684 51.0 52.2 6.4 5.9 24.9 27.0 3.3 3.0 15.9 12.7 11.8 10.7
MBL Infrastructures Buy 132 285 548 2,313 2,797 12.2 14.6 19.0 20.0 7.0 6.6 0.7 0.7 11.3 10.6 1.0 0.9
Nagarjuna Const. Neutral 72 - 3,980 7,892 8,842 8.8 9.1 3.0 5.3 23.9 13.5 1.2 1.1 5.0 8.5 0.7 0.6
PNC Infratech Accumulate 488 558 2,503 1,873 2,288 13.2 13.5 24.0 32.0 20.3 15.2 2.0 1.8 12.1 12.3 1.5 1.2
Simplex Infra Neutral 215 - 1,065 5,955 6,829 10.3 10.5 16.0 31.0 13.5 7.0 0.7 0.7 5.3 9.9 0.7 0.6
Power Mech Projects Neutral 565 - 832 1,539 1,801 12.8 12.7 59.0 72.1 9.6 7.8 1.4 1.2 18.6 16.8 0.6 0.5
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Stock Watch
Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( ₹cr ) OPM(%) EPS (₹) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)
( ₹ ) Price ( ₹) ( ₹ cr ) FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E
Construction
Sadbhav Engineering Buy 263 289 4,505 3,481 4,219 10.7 10.8 8.2 11.7 32.0 22.5 3.1 2.7 10.3 13.5 1.5 1.2
NBCC Buy 958 1,089 11,497 5,816 7,382 6.9 7.7 29.6 39.8 32.4 24.1 5.8 4.6 24.1 26.7 1.7 1.3
MEP Infra Neutral 39 - 631 1,956 1,876 28.1 30.5 1.3 3.0 29.9 12.9 6.3 4.2 21.2 32.8 1.7 1.7
SIPL Neutral 87 - 3,054 675 1,042 62.4 64.7 - - 3.3 3.7 - - 16.4 11.0
Financials
Allahabad Bank Neutral 52 - 3,120 8,569 9,392 2.8 2.9 16.3 27.5 3.2 1.9 0.3 0.2 7.6 11.9 - -
Axis Bank Buy 424 494 101,044 26,473 31,527 3.5 3.6 35.7 43.5 11.9 9.8 2.0 1.7 17.9 18.9 - -
Bank of Baroda Neutral 143 - 32,961 18,485 21,025 1.9 2.0 13.5 21.1 10.6 6.8 0.8 0.7 7.3 10.6 - -
Bank of India Neutral 96 - 7,766 15,972 17,271 1.9 2.0 15.3 33.4 6.3 2.9 0.3 0.2 3.6 7.6 - -
Canara Bank Neutral 188 - 10,197 15,441 16,945 2.0 2.1 46.6 70.4 4.0 2.7 0.4 0.3 8.0 11.2 - -
Dena Bank Neutral 29 - 1,849 3,440 3,840 2.1 2.3 7.3 10.0 4.0 2.9 0.3 0.2 6.1 7.9 - -
Federal Bank Neutral 48 - 8,306 3,477 3,999 3.0 3.0 5.0 6.2 9.6 7.8 1.0 0.9 10.6 11.9 - -
HDFC Neutral 1,126 - 177,825 10,358 11,852 3.3 3.3 41.1 47.0 27.4 23.9 5.2 4.7 24.7 24.9 - -
HDFC Bank Buy 1,031 1,262 260,533 38,309 47,302 4.3 4.3 49.3 61.1 20.9 16.9 3.6 3.1 18.5 19.7 - -
ICICI Bank Buy 226 254 131,651 34,279 39,262 3.3 3.3 21.0 24.4 10.8 9.3 1.8 1.5 14.4 14.7 - -
IDBI Bank Neutral 66 - 12,464 9,625 10,455 1.8 1.8 8.5 14.2 7.7 4.6 0.5 0.4 5.9 9.3 - -
Indian Bank Neutral 99 - 4,748 6,160 6,858 2.5 2.5 24.5 29.8 4.0 3.3 0.3 0.3 7.7 8.6 - -
LIC Housing Finance Buy 446 592 22,503 3,101 3,745 2.5 2.5 33.0 40.2 13.5 11.1 2.5 2.2 19.7 20.5 - -
Oriental Bank Neutral 90 - 2,684 7,643 8,373 2.4 2.4 37.2 45.4 2.4 2.0 0.2 0.2 8.2 9.4 - -
Punjab Natl.Bank Neutral 83 - 16,268 23,638 26,557 2.8 2.8 17.9 27.2 4.6 3.0 0.5 0.4 8.5 12.0 - -
South Ind.Bank Neutral 17 - 2,329 1,965 2,185 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.3 6.9 5.2 0.7 0.6 9.5 11.7 - -
St Bk of India Neutral 185 - 143,689 79,958 86,061 2.6 2.6 13.4 20.7 13.8 9.0 1.1 1.1 11.5 12.8 - -
Union Bank Neutral 126 - 8,682 12,646 14,129 2.3 2.4 31.0 39.1 4.1 3.2 0.4 0.4 9.8 11.4 - -
Vijaya Bank Neutral 31 - 2,698 3,536 3,827 1.9 1.9 5.5 6.7 5.7 4.7 0.5 0.4 7.8 8.8 - -
Yes Bank Neutral 804 - 33,812 7,190 9,011 3.2 3.3 58.2 69.7 13.8 11.6 2.5 2.1 19.2 19.6 - -
FMCG
Asian Paints Neutral 867 - 83,148 16,553 19,160 16.0 16.2 17.7 21.5 49.0 40.3 13.0 11.7 29.4 31.2 5.0 4.3
Britannia Neutral 2,719 - 32,621 8,481 9,795 14.0 14.1 65.5 78.3 41.5 34.7 19.7 16.1 38.3 41.2 3.9 3.3
Colgate Neutral 835 - 22,723 4,836 5,490 19.5 19.7 48.5 53.2 17.2 15.7 12.6 11.0 99.8 97.5 4.5 3.9
Dabur India Accumulate 247 267 43,398 9,370 10,265 17.1 17.2 7.3 8.1 33.6 30.5 10.2 8.3 33.7 30.6 4.6 4.2
GlaxoSmith Con* Accumulate 5,727 6,118 24,084 4,919 5,742 17.2 17.4 168.3 191.2 34.0 30.0 9.7 8.2 28.8 28.9 4.4 3.8
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March 17, 2016
Stock Watch
Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( ₹cr ) OPM(%) EPS (₹) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)
( ₹ ) Price ( ₹) ( ₹ cr ) FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E
FMCG
Godrej Consumer Neutral 1,281 - 43,626 10,168 12,886 16.1 16.1 32.1 38.4 39.9 33.4 8.1 7.5 19.7 21.0 4.5 3.5
HUL Neutral 844 - 182,544 34,940 38,957 17.5 17.7 20.8 24.7 40.6 34.2 45.1 36.1 110.5 114.2 5.1 4.5
ITC Accumulate 322 359 258,912 36,804 38,776 37.9 37.9 12.2 12.9 26.4 25.0 7.3 6.5 27.7 25.8 6.6 6.2
Marico Neutral 240 - 30,990 6,551 7,766 15.7 16.0 10.4 12.5 23.1 19.2 6.7 5.6 33.2 32.4 4.8 4.0
Nestle* Buy 5,026 6,646 48,462 11,291 12,847 22.2 22.3 158.9 184.6 31.6 27.2 16.5 14.9 55.0 57.3 4.3 3.7
Tata Global Buy 115 144 7,264 8,635 9,072 9.8 9.9 6.5 7.6 17.7 15.1 1.8 1.7 6.8 7.4 0.8 0.7
IT
HCL Tech^ Buy 815 1,038 114,848 42,038 47,503 21.2 21.5 51.5 57.7 15.8 14.1 3.4 2.6 21.5 18.8 2.4 1.9
Infosys Buy 1,152 1,347 265,472 61,850 69,981 27.5 27.5 59.4 65.7 19.4 17.5 4.1 3.5 21.2 20.1 3.5 3.0
TCS Buy 2,327 2,854 458,588 108,487 122,590 28.3 28.5 122.8 138.4 19.0 16.8 7.2 6.5 38.0 38.9 3.9 3.4
Tech Mahindra Buy 466 530 45,085 26,524 29,177 16.2 17.0 28.8 33.6 16.2 13.9 3.1 2.7 19.3 19.1 1.4 1.2
Wipro Buy 539 680 133,154 50,808 56,189 23.7 23.8 37.3 40.7 14.5 13.2 2.8 2.5 19.2 17.7 2.1 1.7
Media
D B Corp Accumulate 312 356 5,735 2,241 2,495 27.8 27.9 21.8 25.6 14.3 12.2 3.7 3.3 26.7 28.5 2.6 2.3
HT Media Neutral 80 - 1,853 2,495 2,603 11.2 11.2 7.3 8.6 10.9 9.3 0.9 0.8 7.4 8.1 0.3 0.2
Jagran Prakashan Buy 146 189 4,783 2,170 2,355 27.2 26.2 8.9 9.9 16.4 14.8 3.5 3.0 20.9 20.5 2.2 2.0
Sun TV Network Neutral 363 - 14,286 2,779 3,196 70.2 70.5 22.8 27.3 15.9 13.3 3.9 3.5 26.7 28.3 4.6 4.0Hindustan Media Ventures Neutral 253 - 1,858 920 1,031 20.0 20.0 19.2 20.9 13.2 12.1 2.2 1.9 16.4 15.3 1.6 1.4
Metals & Mining
Coal India Buy 296 380 186,712 76,167 84,130 19.9 22.3 22.4 25.8 13.2 11.5 4.8 4.6 35.5 41.0 2.0 1.8
Hind. Zinc Neutral 169 - 71,323 14,641 14,026 50.4 50.4 17.7 16.0 9.6 10.6 1.5 1.3 16.2 13.2 2.5 2.4
Hindalco Neutral 81 - 16,819 104,356 111,186 8.7 9.5 6.7 11.1 12.1 7.4 0.4 0.4 3.5 5.9 0.7 0.6
JSW Steel Neutral 1,198 - 28,956 42,308 45,147 16.4 20.7 (10.3) 49.5 24.2 1.3 1.3 (1.0) 5.6 1.7 1.6
NMDC Neutral 93 - 36,912 8,237 10,893 46.6 44.5 10.0 11.7 9.4 8.0 1.0 0.9 12.5 13.0 4.3 3.3
SAIL Neutral 43 - 17,553 45,915 53,954 7.2 10.5 1.5 4.4 28.2 9.7 0.4 0.4 2.3 4.1 1.0 0.9
Vedanta Neutral 86 - 25,585 71,445 81,910 26.2 26.3 12.9 19.2 6.7 4.5 0.5 0.4 7.2 8.9 0.8 0.6
Tata Steel Neutral 299 - 29,059 126,760 137,307 8.9 11.3 6.4 23.1 47.0 13.0 0.9 0.9 2.0 7.1 0.8 0.8
Oil & Gas
Cairn India Neutral 148 - 27,814 11,323 12,490 49.4 51.0 20.7 20.7 7.2 7.2 0.5 0.4 6.4 6.1 1.5 0.9
GAIL Neutral 339 - 43,052 64,856 70,933 9.1 9.6 24.0 28.9 14.2 11.8 1.2 1.1 8.8 9.6 0.9 0.8
ONGC Neutral 206 - 176,628 154,564 167,321 36.8 37.4 28.6 32.5 7.2 6.4 0.9 0.8 12.7 13.5 1.3 1.3
Petronet LNG Neutral 248 - 18,600 29,691 31,188 5.8 6.2 12.8 13.4 19.4 18.5 2.9 2.6 15.8 14.8 0.7 0.7
Indian Oil Corp Buy 389 455 94,350 359,607 402,760 5.9 6.1 42.5 48.7 9.2 8.0 1.2 1.1 14.1 14.4 0.4 0.3
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March 17, 2016
Stock Watch
Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( ₹cr ) OPM(%) EPS (₹) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)
( ₹ ) Price ( ₹) ( ₹ cr ) FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E
Oil & Gas
Reliance Industries Accumulate 1,022 1,150 331,059 304,775 344,392 12.6 13.4 91.3 102.6 11.2 10.0 1.3 1.1 11.8 12.0 1.0 0.8
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma Neutral 622 - 11,734 3,274 3,802 26.9 19.4 35.0 28.7 17.8 21.7 7.9 5.9 55.6 31.2 3.5 3.0
Aurobindo Pharma Buy 727 856 42,513 14,923 17,162 22.0 23.0 35.7 42.8 20.4 17.0 6.0 4.5 34.0 30.2 3.2 2.8
Aventis* Neutral 4,294 - 9,890 2,082 2,371 17.4 20.8 118.2 151.5 36.3 28.3 5.3 4.3 19.9 25.5 4.5 3.8
Cadila Healthcare Neutral 338 - 34,628 10,224 11,840 21.0 22.0 14.6 17.6 23.2 19.2 6.4 5.0 30.8 29.0 3.5 2.9
Cipla Accumulate 533 605 42,792 13,979 16,447 20.2 18.6 25.7 27.5 20.7 19.4 3.4 2.9 17.6 16.1 3.1 2.5
Dr Reddy's Buy 3,155 3,933 53,811 16,838 19,575 25.0 23.1 167.5 178.8 18.8 17.7 4.0 3.3 23.1 20.4 3.2 2.7
Dishman Pharma Neutral 338 - 2,727 1,733 1,906 21.5 21.5 17.0 19.9 19.9 17.0 2.0 1.8 10.5 11.2 2.2 1.9
GSK Pharma* Neutral 3,319 - 28,111 2,870 3,158 20.0 22.1 59.5 68.3 55.8 48.6 16.5 16.9 28.5 34.3 9.1 8.3
Indoco Remedies Neutral 274 - 2,527 1,033 1,199 15.9 18.2 9.4 13.6 29.2 20.2 4.3 3.7 15.7 19.7 2.6 2.2
Ipca labs Buy 532 900 6,710 3,363 3,909 12.9 18.6 13.4 28.0 39.7 19.0 2.8 2.5 7.4 14.0 2.3 2.0
Lupin Neutral 1,749 - 78,780 13,092 16,561 25.0 27.0 50.4 68.3 34.7 25.6 7.2 5.7 22.8 24.7 6.1 4.7
Sun Pharma Accumulate 837 950 201,354 28,163 32,610 25.8 30.7 17.4 26.9 48.1 31.1 4.6 4.0 13.0 16.6 6.9 5.7
Power
Tata Power Neutral 59 - 15,917 35,923 37,402 22.6 22.8 4.1 5.2 14.5 11.4 1.1 1.0 7.5 9.3 1.4 1.3
NTPC Buy 128 146 105,130 87,271 99,297 23.5 23.5 11.8 13.3 10.9 9.6 1.2 1.1 11.5 12.2 2.2 2.0
Power Grid Buy 139 170 72,536 20,702 23,361 86.7 86.4 12.1 13.2 11.5 10.5 1.7 1.5 15.6 15.1 8.4 7.8
Real Estate
MLIFE Buy 431 554 1,770 697 1,011 14.9 19.3 13.8 20.1 31.3 21.5 1.2 1.1 3.8 5.3 3.8 2.6
Telecom
Bharti Airtel Neutral 340 - 135,772 101,748 109,191 32.1 31.7 12.0 12.5 28.3 27.2 1.9 1.8 6.9 6.7 2.0 1.8
Idea Cellular Neutral 98 - 35,411 34,282 36,941 32.0 31.5 5.9 6.2 16.7 15.9 1.5 1.4 9.9 9.3 1.6 1.6
zOthers
Abbott India Neutral 4,809 - 10,219 2,715 3,153 14.5 14.1 134.3 152.2 35.8 31.6 8.9 7.4 27.4 25.6 3.5 3.0
Bajaj Electricals Buy 188 237 1,895 4,719 5,287 5.2 5.8 8.6 12.7 21.9 14.8 2.5 2.2 11.4 14.8 0.4 0.4
Finolex Cables Neutral 244 - 3,730 2,520 2,883 12.2 12.0 12.7 14.2 19.3 17.2 2.6 2.3 13.6 13.5 1.1 1.0
Goodyear India* Buy 472 582 1,089 1,800 1,600 11.7 11.5 58.7 52.9 8.0 8.9 1.8 1.6 24.6 18.7 0.4 0.4
Hitachi Neutral 1,148 - 3,122 1,779 2,081 7.8 8.8 21.8 33.4 52.7 34.4 8.5 6.9 17.4 22.1 1.8 1.5
Jyothy Laboratories Neutral 286 - 5,171 1,620 1,847 11.5 11.5 7.3 8.5 39.2 33.7 5.1 4.7 13.3 14.4 3.1 2.6
MRF Buy 33,428 45,575 14,177 20,316 14,488 21.4 21.1 5,488.0 3,798.0 6.1 8.8 2.1 1.7 41.1 21.2 0.7 0.9
Page Industries Neutral 11,146 - 12,432 1,929 2,450 19.8 20.1 229.9 299.0 48.5 37.3 21.4 14.9 52.1 47.1 6.6 5.2
Relaxo Footwears Neutral 379 - 4,545 1,767 2,152 12.3 12.5 19.3 25.1 19.7 15.1 4.8 3.7 27.7 27.8 2.7 2.2
Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 980 1,354 919 1,636 1,815 11.5 11.5 89.9 104.1 10.9 9.4 1.8 1.6 17.9 17.8 0.7 0.7
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March 17, 2016
Stock Watch
Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( ₹cr ) OPM(%) EPS (₹) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)
( ₹ ) Price ( ₹) ( ₹ cr ) FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E
zOthers
Styrolution ABS India* Neutral 544 - 957 1,271 1,440 8.6 9.2 32.0 41.1 17.0 13.3 1.7 1.6 10.7 12.4 0.7 0.6
TVS Srichakra Buy 2,438 3,217 1,867 2,035 2,252 15.9 15.3 248.6 268.1 9.8 9.1 4.3 3.1 43.6 33.9 0.9 0.8
HSIL Accumulate 281 302 2,029 2,123 2,384 16.1 16.5 15.0 18.9 18.7 14.9 1.5 1.4 8.0 9.4 1.3 1.1Kirloskar Engines India Ltd Neutral 210 - 3,030 2,403 2,554 8.6 9.9 9.2 10.5 22.8 20.0 2.2 2.1 9.7 10.7 0.9 0.8
M M Forgings Buy 425 614 513 511 615 21.7 21.6 43.1 55.8 9.9 7.6 1.8 1.5 19.9 21.2 1.2 0.9
Banco Products (India) Neutral 99 - 705 1,208 1,353 11.0 12.3 10.8 14.5 9.2 6.8 1.1 0.9 11.9 14.5 0.6 0.5
Competent Automobiles Neutral 128 - 79 1,040 1,137 3.2 3.1 25.7 28.0 5.0 4.6 0.7 0.7 15.0 14.3 0.1 0.1
Nilkamal Neutral 1,108 - 1,653 1,871 2,031 10.7 10.5 63.2 69.8 17.5 15.9 2.9 2.5 17.6 16.6 0.9 0.8
Visaka Industries Buy 107 144 170 1,086 1,197 9.9 10.3 21.5 28.8 5.0 3.7 0.5 0.4 9.6 11.6 0.4 0.3Transport Corporation of India Neutral 273 - 2,078 2,830 3,350 8.8 9.0 14.4 18.3 19.0 14.9 2.9 2.6 15.4 17.1 0.9 0.7
Elecon Engineering Neutral 57 - 619 1,359 1,482 10.3 13.7 0.8 3.9 70.7 14.6 1.2 1.1 1.6 7.8 0.8 0.8
Surya Roshni Buy 133 201 585 2,992 3,223 8.1 8.4 14.7 18.3 9.1 7.3 0.9 0.8 9.7 11.0 0.5 0.4
MT Educare Neutral 157 - 623 286 366 18.3 17.7 7.7 9.4 20.3 16.7 4.3 3.7 20.2 21.1 2.1 1.6
Radico Khaitan Buy 97 156 1,291 1,517 1,635 12.7 13.4 5.8 7.1 16.7 13.7 1.4 1.3 8.6 9.6 1.4 1.2
Garware Wall Ropes Buy 320 473 700 862 974 11.2 11.2 24.9 29.6 12.9 10.8 1.9 1.7 15.1 15.4 0.8 0.6
Wonderla Holidays Neutral 362 - 2,043 206 308 44.0 43.6 9.0 12.9 40.2 28.0 5.5 5.0 13.7 17.8 10.0 6.6
Linc Pen & Plastics Neutral 182 - 270 340 371 8.3 8.9 10.8 13.2 16.9 13.8 2.7 2.4 16.0 17.1 0.8 0.8
The Byke Hospitality Neutral 152 - 611 222 287 20.5 20.5 5.6 7.6 27.0 20.2 5.1 4.2 18.9 20.8 2.8 2.2
Interglobe Aviation Neutral 802 - 28,895 17,022 21,122 20.7 14.5 63.9 53.7 12.6 14.9 18.8 15.4 149.9 103.2 1.8 1.4Coffee Day Enterprises Ltd Neutral 225 - 4,636 2,692 2,964 17.0 18.6 - 4.7 - 47.5 2.8 2.6 0.2 5.5 2.1 2.0
Navneet Education Neutral 82 - 1,959 998 1,062 24.1 24.0 5.8 6.1 14.3 13.5 3.2 2.8 22.0 20.6 2.0 1.9
Navkar Corporation Buy 168 265 2,391 365 436 38.3 37.5 5.6 5.9 29.7 28.5 1.9 1.8 6.3 6.1 7.2 6.2
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on March 16, 2016
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March 17, 2016
Stock Watch
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Market OutlookMarch 17, 2016