Market Outlook 11-11-2013

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    Market OutlookNovember 11, 2013

    Dealers DiaryIndian markets are likely to open flat to positive tracking a flat opening in SGX

    Nifty while most of the Asian markets trading in the positive territory.

    US markets after ending the previous session sharply lower showed a substantial

    rebound during trading on Friday. The markets benefited from a positive reaction

    to much better than expected monthly jobs data. The major averages saw further

    upside going into the close, with the Dow reaching a new record closing high. The

    majority of the European markets ended Friday's session in negative territory, after

    S&P downgraded France's credit ratings. The stronger than expected growth in U.S.

    employment for October was another source of concern which made investors

    worried that the Federal Reserve will begin to reduce its stimulus measures sooner,

    rather than later

    Meanwhile Indian markets extended losses for the fourth day on Friday, tracking

    weak global cues as fresh worries that the Federal Reserve might cut back its $85

    billion monthly bond purchase program sooner rather than later overshadowedpositive trade data out of China.

    Markets Today

    The trend deciding level for the day is 20,696 / 6,149 levels. If NIFTY trades

    above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further

    rally up to 20,791 20,916 / 6,177 6,213 levels. However, if NIFTY trades

    below 20,696 / 6,149 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct

    up to 20,571 20,476 / 6,113 6,085 levels.

    Indices S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2SENSEX 20,476 20,571 20,696 20,791 20,916

    NIFTY 6,085 6,113 6,149 6,177 6,213

    News Analysis

    JSW Steel reported crude steel production numbers for October 2013 Result Review: Tata Motors, United Spirits, PNB, Sun TV, Crompton Greaves,

    J&K Bank, UCO Bank, Indian Bank, ITNL, Dena Bank, United Bank, VesuviusIndia, Subros

    Result Preview: Central Bank, Vijaya Bank, Corporation Bank, GodrejConsumer, SAIL, Glaxo Pharmaceutical, Britannia, Nalco, Hexaware, ApollotyresRefer detailed news analysis on the following page

    Net Inflows (November 07, 2013)cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTD

    FII 2,059 1,576 484 1,177 91,020

    MFs 330 470 (140) (610) (20,852)

    FII Derivatives (November 08, 2013)cr Purch Sales Net Open Interest

    Index Futures 1,653 2,740 (1,087) 15,205

    Stock Futures 2,014 2,348 (334) 28,353

    Gainers / LosersGainers Losers

    Company Price () chg ( ) Company Price () chg ( )Aurobindo Phar 260 9.3 Prestige Estates 138 (6.8)

    Indiabulls Real Est 67 8.8 Sun TV Network 413 (5.6)

    Tech Mahindra 1,674 5.9 United Brew 783 (4.7)

    Uco Bank 75 5.3 Axis Bank 1,118 (4.5)

    HDIL 46 5.0 PNB 522 (4.2)

    Domestic Indices Chg ( ) (Pts) (Close)BSE Sensex (0.8) (157) 20,666

    Nifty (0.8) (46) 6,141

    MID CAP (0.2) (10) 6,211

    SMALL CAP (0.3) (17) 6,013

    BSE HC 0.3 30 9,668

    BSE PSU (0.7) (40) 5,768

    BANKEX (1.3) (160) 12,459

    AUTO (0.5) (55) 12,029

    METAL 0.4 33 9,318

    OIL & GAS (1.2) (104) 8,612

    BSE IT (0.1) (6) 8,562

    Global Indices Chg ( ) (Pts) (Close)Dow Jones 1.1 168 15,762NASDAQ 1.6 62 3,919

    FTSE 0.2 11 6,708

    Nikkei (1.0) (142) 14,087

    Hang Sang (0.6) (137) 22,744

    Straits Times (0.8) (25) 3,177

    Shanghai Com (1.1) (23) 2,106

    Indian AD Chg ( ) (Pts) (Close)INFY 0.0 0.0 $53.7

    WIT 0.4 0.0 $11.2IBN (0.8) (0.3) $34.5

    HDB (1.5) (0.5) $33.3

    Advances / Declines BSE NSEAdvances 1,096 552

    Declines 1,350 801

    Unchanged 149 94

    Volumes ( cr)BSE 2,002

    NSE 11,421

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    Market OutlookNovember 11, 2013

    JSW Steel reported crude steel production numbers for October 2013

    JSW Steel reported crude steel production numbers for October 2013 from all the

    three plants namely Vijayanagar, Salem and Dolvi. The crude steel production for

    October stood at 1.06mn tonnes and the rolled flat and rolled long production

    stood at 0.87mn tonnes and 0.15mn tonnes respectively. The production numbersare however, not comparable to the October 2012 numbers since these numbers

    comprises of the production from the erstwhile JSW Ispats Dolvi plant which is

    now merged with JSW Steel. We maintain our Neutral view on the JSW Steel stock.Result Review

    Tata Motors (CMP:`385/ TP:`422/ Upside: 9%)Tata Motors (TTMT) reported strong results for 2QFY2014 driven yet again by

    robust Jaguar and Land Rover (JLR) performance. JLR reported record EBITDA

    margins of 17.8%, up 120bp sequentially (460bp yoy); however, adjusted for

    79mn of local incentives (36mn in 2QFY2013) which is exceptional in nature,margins stood at 16.1%, broadly in-line with our estimates of 16%. The standalone

    operations reported a net loss of `522cr (adjusted basis), which was in-line with

    our estimates of`520cr.

    The consolidated top-line registered a strong growth of 31.1% yoy (21.6% qoq) to

    `56,882cr, in-line with our estimates of `56,466cr, driven by an impressive top-

    line growth of 55.9% yoy (29.5% qoq) at JLR. The JLR performance was driven by

    a robust volume growth of 31.6% yoy (12.5% qoq) and aided further by the

    translation gains on account of the INR depreciation against the USD.

    Consolidated EBITDA margin surprised positively and came in at 15.2% (up 290bp

    yoy and 190bp qoq), substantially ahead of our estimates of 13.6%. The operatingperformance was led by JLR which reported EBITDA margins of 17.8% on the back

    of the favorable product-mix (higher share of Range Roverand Range Rover Sport)

    and richer geography mix (higher share of China). Led by a strong operating

    performance, consolidated operating profit surged 61.9% yoy (38.8% qoq) to

    `8,635cr. Consequently adjusted net profit increased 83% yoy (100.3% qoq) to

    `3,816cr (reported net profit stood at `3,542cr). The tax rate during the quarter

    stood lower at 25.1% (as against 39.8% in 1QFY2014) which aided the bottom-

    line to some extent.

    On the standalone front, top-line posted a significant decline of 28.9% yoy to

    `8,868cr following a 31.5% yoy decline in volumes. Standalone EBITDA marginscollapsed to 0.9% (down 432bp yoy and 24bp qoq) due to higher discounts and

    promotional expenses and also due to lower utilization levels. As a result,

    standalone operations recorded an adjusted botto-line loss of`522cr, in-line with

    our estimates of`520cr.

    Going ahead, we expect headwinds in the standalone business to continue in

    FY2014 due to weak macro-economic environment which is expected to continue

    impacting the domestic volumes. However, we expect JLR to sustain its strong

    performance driven by continued momentum in the global luxury vehicle market

    and aided further by the strong product launch pipeline and the success of the

    newly launched models. We retain our positive view on the stock and maintain ourAccumulate rating with an SOTP target price of 422.

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    Market OutlookNovember 11, 2013

    Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch ( cr) ( ) ( cr) () ( ) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 228,397 14.6 13,551 42.1 30.6 9.1 2.4 4.2 0.6

    FY2015E 263,300 15.0 16,802 52.2 28.5 7.4 1.9 3.4 0.5

    United Spirits (CMP:`2,394/TP:-/Upside:-)

    For 2QFY2014, United Spirits posted a 8.2% yoy de-growth in its stand-alone net

    sales to `2,039cr, which was below estimates. The company indicated that

    effective net sales growth was 7%, considering that the corresponding quarter of

    previous year had one-off sale of bulk malt spirit. Volumes remained flat at 28.1

    million cases. However, the volumes of the prestige and above segments grew by

    21%, with a value growth of 27%. The share of these brands in the overall sales

    volume stood at 28% for the quarter (vs. 26% in 2QFY2013).

    OPM fell by 133bp yoy to 10.1% due to higher employee, selling and advertising

    expenditure as a proportion of sales. The company also indicated that the prices ofExtra Neutral Alcohol (ENA) has gone up by ~`20/case on a yoy basis during

    2QFY2014 due to an attempt by sugarcane manufacturers to raise ENA prices due

    to a increase in demand from Oil Marketing Companies. EBITDA came in below

    estimates at`205cr. Bottom-line rose by 116% yoy to`94cr aided by higher other

    income which stood at`82cr (vs 29cr in 2QFY2013) and lower interest costs due

    to repayment of debt. We maintain a neutral rating on the stock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch ( cr) ( ) ( cr) () ( ) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 12,294 12.0 612 42.1 9.1 56.8 4.0 26.5 3.2

    FY2015E 14,162 12.0 983 67.7 10.7 35.4 3.6 22.8 2.7

    Note: Consolidated financials are furnished in the table

    PNB (CMP:`522 / TP:`579 / Upside : 11%)Punjab National Bank witnessed continued asset quality pain, while operating

    performance was expectedly subdued. Stressed assets additions (slippages and

    incremental restructuring) remained elevated during the quarter, higher than what

    was built-in the estimates.

    Business growth remains subdued; Asset quality pain persists: During the quarter, thebank continued its balance sheet consolidation strategy adopted a year back andgrew its loan book at a moderate pace of 6.5% yoy. After consolidating its balance

    sheet for a year, the management targets credit growth of 14-15% by year end,

    which implies incremental credit disbursement of roughly`40,000cr in 2HFY2014.

    Meanwhile, growth in CASA deposits was also moderate at 9.0% yoy, however as it

    was higher than overall deposits growth of 1.2% yoy, reported CASA ratio

    improved 400bp yoy to 40.7%. The bank continued its conscious strategy of

    shedding bulk deposits, which reached a level of 6.3% of total deposits (compared

    to 8.8% of total deposits as of previous quarter). Reported NIMs declined 5bp qoq,

    primarily as the bank lowered the interest rates on some products/select better

    rated accounts.During 2QFY2014, the non-interest income (excl. treasury) grew at

    10.3% yoy, aided by healthy performance on the recoveries & forex income front,

    even as fee income grew at moderate 11.8% yoy. During the quarter, the bank

    witnessed continued asset quality weakness, as both gross addition to NPAs and

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    Market OutlookNovember 11, 2013

    incremental restructuring remained elevated. Gross addition to NPAs came in at

    around `3,000cr (were expected to moderate significantly from one-off highs of

    around `3,600cr in last quarter). Recoveries/upgrades performance improved to

    `1,540cr, as compared to`1,170cr in last quarter. Elevated slippages resulted in

    10% sequential deterioration in Gross NPA levels. Provisioning expenses for the

    bank increased 77% yoy to around `1,900cr, but a large chunk of it (almost`900cr) was towards restructured advances and investment provisioning and as a

    result, PCR increased marginally by 60bp qoq to 55.3%. Restructuring during the

    quarter remained elevated at `2,769cr, almost flat sequentially. As per the

    management, the restructuring book for the bank, even include those accounts

    where the CDR package is yet to be approved and implemented.

    Outlook and valuation:The bank has witnessed severe asset quality pain over the lastseveral quarters. However, the banks management (which until now were reasonably

    cautious on its asset quality), now expect the asset quality pressures for the bank to

    moderate hereon, given the structural changes taking place in the economy and its

    consequent positive impact on sectors like Textiles, Construction, Roads and others.Moreover, its capital adequacy remains strong (CAR at 11.6% and CET 1 at 8.6%,

    as per Basel III), so do its core profitability (FY2015E RoE at 15.2%). Valuations at

    0.5x FY2015E ABV are moderate compared to peers, hence , we recommend aAccumulate rating on the stock, with a target price of 579.Y/E Op. Inc NIM PAT EPS ABV ROA ROE P/E P/ABVMarch ( cr) ( ) ( cr) () ( ) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 20,622 3.3 4,384 124.0 884.1 0.9 13.3 4.5 0.6

    FY2015E 23,258 3.3 5,616 158.91,048.8 1.0 15.2 3.5 0.5

    SUN TV (CMP:`413/TP: /Upside : )

    For 2QFY2014, Sun TVs top-line and bottom-line performance was lower than

    our estimates as well as street estimates. Top-line grew by only 7.6% yoy to `466cr

    compared to our estimate of`493cr, primarily on account of 4.5% yoy decline in

    advertising revenue to`234cr. Advertising revenue was hit due to transition to new

    TRAI dispensation which limits ad time to 12 minutes/hour. However, the

    management has assured revival in advertising revenue in Q3FY2014 and

    maintained its yearly guidance of 12% growth in advertising revenue for FY14.

    On the operating front, OPM contracted by 352bp yoy to 72.4%. Consequently,

    Net Profit grew by only 11.5% yoy to`169cr compared to our estimate of`179cr.

    We maintain Neutral on the stock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch ( cr) ( ) ( cr) () ( ) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 2,287 69.7 788 20.0 26.4 20.6 5.1 9.5 6.7

    FY2015E 2,551 71.1 938 23.8 27.8 17.3 4.4 8.1 5.8

    Crompton Greaves (CMP:`106/ TP: Under review/ Upside:)

    For 2QFY2014, Crompton Greaves top-line and bottom-line performance was in-

    line with our estimates. Top-line grew by 9.6% yoy to `3,205cr (in-line with our

    estimate of 10.1% yoy growth to`3,220cr). Power system segment grew by 13.7%

    yoy to `2,026cr as execution is picking up pace at Hungary plant. Consumer

    products also reported healthy growth of 12.8% yoy to`659cr as fans and lighting

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    Market OutlookNovember 11, 2013

    products are witnessing good demand. However, industrial system segment

    declined by 9.0% yoy to`438cr.

    On the EBITDA front, the company's margin expanded by 36bp yoy to 5.0%.

    Although international power system segment and domestic consumer products

    segment posted improvement in margins, 496bp yoy contraction in domesticindustrial segment margin weighed down consolidated margin. Consequently, the

    company's PAT grew by 38.8% yoy to `58cr (our estimate of `60cr). Werecommend Buy on the stock with the target price under review.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch ( cr) ( ) ( cr) () ( ) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 13,272 5.7 360 5.6 9.8 19.1 1.8 11.1 0.3

    FY2015E 14,982 6.7 514 8.0 12.8 13.4 1.6 8.6 0.3

    JK Bank(CMP:`1,297/ TP: -/ Upside: -)J&KBank reported healthy operating performance, while asset quality remainedlargely stable. NII came in line with 23.4% growth yoy on back of 20.0% increase

    in advances yoy. The operating expenses grew by 28.9% to `285 (has been

    growing 25% and upwards for last few quarters) which was in line with our

    expectations. Operating profit grew by 17.5% yoy to`496cr. On the asset quality

    front, the Gross NPA ratio increased marginally by 2bp qoq to 1.7%, while net

    NPA ratio increased by 5bp qoq to 0.19%, which appears to a modest increase,

    given the prevailing weak macro environment and low base of NPLs for bank. PCR

    for the bank dropped by 195bp qoq, but even then at 92.1%, it remains one of

    the highest in the industry. Overall net profit for the bank grew by 12.3% yoy to

    `303cr. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 1.0x FY2015E ABV, at a higher end

    compared to peers, which factors in its better asset quality performance vis--vis

    peers even in a challenging macro environment. Hence, we maintain our Neutralrecommendation on the stock.Y/E Op. Inc NIM PAT EPS ABV ROA ROE P/E P/ABVMarch ( cr) ( ) ( cr) () ( ) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 3,062 3.8 1,094 225.61,167.5 1.5 20.7 5.7 1.1

    FY2015E 3,397 3.9 997 205.51,319.0 1.3 16.4 6.3 1.0

    UCO Bank (CMP:`

    75 / TP:`

    84 / Upside: 12%)UCO Bank reported strong operating numbers, while asset quality performance

    was reasonably moderate as compared with peers. Over last few quarters, the

    bank has witnessed strong NII growth of around 30% yoy, primarily aided by

    higher CASA ratio (which in turn is buoyed by substantial CA floats made available

    on Indo-Iran trade payments being routed through the bank). During 2QFY2014,

    the bank witnessed NII growth of 54.9% yoy to`1,569cr. Higher NII growth aided

    operating income and operating profits to grow strongly by 45.1% and 63.4% yoy,

    respectively to `1,779cr and `1,166cr. After witnessing severe asset quality pain

    over last two years until 4QFY2013, when both Gross and Net NPAs, on an

    absolute basis for the bank more than doubled and Gross NPA ratio reached ahigh of 5.4%. During 1HFY2014, the asset quality performance for the bank was

    reasonably moderate as compared with peers. However, aided by higher

    operating performance, the bank provided much higher (provisioning expenses

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    Market OutlookNovember 11, 2013

    have grown by around 50% yoy during 1HFY2014 and PCR improved 228bp to

    54.4%). Overall, the bank reported 286% yoy growth in earnings to `400cr (on a

    low base of 2QFY2013, where the bank had reported 55% yoy earnings decline).

    Though UCO Bank is trading at 0.7x FY2015E ABV, much higher than peers,

    substantial CA float made available on Indo-Iran trade payments, stable to

    improving outlook on asset quality (as indicated by the management) and lowtreasury income volatility have resulted in healthy earnings visibility and significant

    improvement in return ratios for the bank. Hence, we now recommend an

    Accumulate rating on the stock, with a price target of`84.

    Y/E Op. Inc NIM PAT EPS ABV ROA ROE P/E P/ABVMarch ( cr) ( ) ( cr) () ( ) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 7,367 3.0 1,590 18.9 89.8 0.8 18.0 3.9 0.8

    FY2015E 8,210 3.1 1,740 20.9 113.2 0.7 17.3 3.5 0.7

    Indian Bank(CMP:`96/ TP: / Downside: )Indian Bank reported moderate operating performance though on expected lines,

    while asset quality witnessed continued pressures. NII remained largely flat as

    expected (probably on back of interest reversals) in spite of 15.1% increase in

    advances yoy. Operating profit came in-line with 22.2% yoy decline at `706cr, on

    back of 15.4% yoy higher operating expenses. On the asset quality front, the bank

    witnessed continued pressure, as absolute gross and net NPAs have both more

    than doubled over last one year, while on a sequential basis they rose by ~13%

    each. Provisioning expenses un-expectedly reduced by 38.9% qoq at `225cr (of

    which`89cr was for investment depreciation) thereby reducing PCR by 263bp qoq

    to 58.6%. Overall net profit for the bank declined (for fourth consecutive quarter)

    by 38.3% yoy to `306cr. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.4x FY2015E ABV.We maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock.Y/E Op. Inc NIM PAT EPS ABV ROA ROE P/E P/ABVMarch ( cr) ( ) ( cr) () ( ) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2013E 5,919 2.7 1,241 27.8 235.4 0.7 11.4 3.7 0.4

    FY2014E 6,374 2.7 1,447 32.6 264.3 0.7 12.2 3.2 0.4

    ITNL (CMP:`120 / TP:`156/Upside: 30%)

    For 2QFY2014, IL&FS Transportation Networks (ITNL) reported a mixed set of

    numbers which were above our estimates on the profitability front. ITNL reportedpoor performance on the top-line front owing to slow execution in its under

    construction projects; however due to better-than-expected operational

    performance and lower tax rate earnings were ahead our estimate. The company

    reported consolidated revenue of`1,341cr (`1,370cr) in 2QFY2014, registering a

    decline of 2.2% yoy, which was below our estimate of `1,485cr. EBITDA margins

    increase by 419bp/136bp on yoy/qoq basis to 37.2% in 2QFY2014, against our

    estimate of 32.0%. This was mainly on account of higher revenue contribution

    from fee income and increase in BOT toll/annuity revenue due to operation of

    some BOT toll/annuity projects during the quarter. Interest cost came in at`363cr

    a jump of 29.3% yoy in 2QFY2014 and was higher than our estimate of Rs324cr.

    On the earnings front, ITNL reported PAT of`111cr (our estimate was`107cr) in

    2QFY2014. This was mainly on account of better-than-expected operational

    performance and lower effectively tax rate (16.2%) during the quarter. We

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    Market OutlookNovember 11, 2013

    continue to maintain Buy rating on the stock with our target price of 156,indicating an upside of 30 from current levels.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BVEV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch ( cr) ( ) ( cr) () ( ) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 7,423 29.2 585 30.1 14.9 4.0 0.6 8.3 2.4FY2015E 7,970 30.4 628 32.3 14.2 3.7 0.5 8.1 2.5

    Dena Bank- (CMP:`60/ TP: -/ Upside: -)Dena Bank reported weak operating performance, while asset quality witnessed

    continued pressures. NII came in-line, registering a subdued 5.2% yoy growth, on

    back of 10.1% yoy increase in advances. Operating expenses grew 39.5% yoy to

    `406cr, much higher than expectations. Operating profit for the bank declined

    15.5% yoy to `369cr. On the asset quality front, the bank witnessed continued

    pressures, as its annualised slippage ratio increased to 2.9% from 2.5% in

    1QFY2014 and 2.0% in 2QFY2013. Gross and net NPA ratios increasedsequentially by 12.0% and 17.5% respectively. PCR for the bank dropped 208bp

    qoq to 64.1%. PBT level profit decreased by 89.7% to`34cr, however tax reversals

    of`73cr aided the bank to limit PAT de-growth to 55.2% at `107cr. At the CMP,

    the stock trades at valuations of 0.4x FY2015E ABV. We maintain our Neutralrecommendation on the stock.Y/E Op. Inc NIM PAT EPS ABV ROA ROE P/E P/ABVMarch ( cr) ( ) ( cr) () ( ) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 3,299 2.2 595 17.0 141.1 0.5 11.5 3.7 0.4

    FY2015E 3,515 2.3 738 21.1 159.9 0.6 12.9 3.0 0.4

    United Bank(CMP:`38/ TP: -/ Upside :-)United Bank reported weak operating numbers, while asset quality witnessed

    substantial deterioration. NII unexpectedly de-grew 14.7% yoy to `517cr, while

    other income grew 11.1% yoy to `269cr, thereby leading to operating profit de-

    growth of 21.8% yoy to `373cr. Over the last five quarters until 1QFY2014, the

    bank had already witnessed significant asset quality pain, as Gross NPA levels had

    nearly doubled, while Net NPA levels had become 1.5 times. In 2QFY2014, gross

    and Net NPA levels for the bank further grew substantially by 57% and 67% qoq,

    respectively (on an already high base). Gross and Net NPA ratio have nowreached alarmingly high levels of 7.3% and 5.4%, respectively (as against levels of

    3.4% and 1.7% six quarters back). Provisioning expense for the bank nearly

    quadrupled to`987cr and the bank reported loss for the quarter at`489cr. Given

    the prevailing weak macros, we remain cautious of the asset quality performance

    for the bank going ahead. Hence, we maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.Y/E Op. Inc NIM PAT EPS ABV ROA ROE P/E P/ABVMarch ( cr) ( ) ( cr) () ( ) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 3,407 2.1 318 6.4 92.0 0.3 5.3 6.3 0.4

    FY2015E 3,704 2.3 536 12.2 100.2 0.4 9.5 3.3 0.4

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    Market OutlookNovember 11, 2013

    Vesuvius India (CMP:`387/ TP:`439/ Upside: 13%)

    For 3QCY2013, Vesuvius reported mixed set of numbers. Top-line grew by 13.7%

    yoy to`150cr, 2.1% higher than our estimate of`147cr. On operational front, the

    EBITDA grew by 11.2% yoy to `27cr but it was 7.9% lower than our estimate of

    `30cr. The EBITDA margins came in at 18.1%, 196bp lower than our estimate

    owing to higher than estimated raw material cost as a percentage of total income.

    Consequently, PAT came 8.6% lower than the estimate to `16cr; however it was

    16.3% higher than the PAT in same quarter previous year. Currently stock is

    trading at 10.6x CY2014E earnings and we maintain our Accumulate rating on

    the stock with a target price of`439 based on a target PE of 12x for CY2014E.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesDec ( cr) ( ) ( cr) () ( ) (x) (x) (x) (x)CY2013E 600 20 72 36 40.910.8 1.9 5.5 1.1

    CY2014E 638 19 74 37 39.410.6 1.7 5.0 1.0

    Subros (CMP:`25/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

    Subros posted weak results for 2QFY2014 as sluggish demand environment

    impacted EBITDA margins. Top-line posted a muted growth of 2.1% qoq to`286cr

    due to a modest volume growth of 1.1%. EBITDA margins contracted 87bp

    sequentially to 9.6% leading to a 6.4% qoq decline in operating profit to `27cr.

    Adjusted PAT however, grew by 6.5% qoq to`3cr as company availed higher tax

    credits during the quarter. We believe that the downturn in the passenger car

    demand will continue in 2HFY2014 as well which is expected to result in a sluggish

    operating performance going ahead. At`25, the stock is trading at 6.7x FY2015

    earnings. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch ( cr) ( ) ( cr) () ( ) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 1,230 10.5 14 2.3 4.8 10.9 0.5 3.5 0.3

    FY2015E 1,398 10.5 23 3.8 7.6 6.7 0.5 3.1 0.3

    Result Preview

    Central Bank(CMP:`59/ TP: -/ Upside: -)Central Bank is scheduled to announce its 2QFY2014 results today. We expect the

    bank to report a moderate NII growth of 10.9% yoy to `1,570cr. Non-interest

    income is expected to de-grow by 4.3% yoy to `337cr. Operating expenses are

    expected to increase higher by 20.1% yoy to `1,143cr which would result in

    operating profit decline of 6.5% on a yoy basis at `763cr. Provisioning expenses

    are expected to increase by 47.0% yoy, and thus earnings are expected to de-

    growth by 62.2% yoy to`125cr. At the CMP, the stock trades at valuations of 0.7x

    FY2015E ABV. We maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock.Y/E Op. Inc NIM PAT EPS ABV ROA ROE P/E P/ABVMarch ( cr) ( ) ( cr) () ( ) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 8,224 2.3 749 5.7 82.0 0.2 5.0 11.0 0.8

    FY2015E 9,221 2.4 1,671 14.6 96.8 0.5 11.8 4.3 0.7

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    Market OutlookNovember 11, 2013

    Vijaya Bank(CMP:`42/ TP: / Upside: )Vijaya Bank is scheduled to announce its 2QFY2014 results today. We expect the

    bank to report a moderate 8.9% yoy growth in Net Interest Income (NII) to `490cr.

    Non-interest income is expected to grow by 46.7% yoy ( on back of low base in

    2QFY13) to`123cr. Operating expenses are expected to increase by 11.9% yoy to

    `357cr. Provisioning expenses are expected to increase by 14.8% yoy to `123cr,

    which would enable PBT level increase of 23.8% to `133cr. Net profit is expected

    to decline by 24.8% yoy to `93cr on back of Tax expense at `40cr against Tax

    reversal of `16cr in 2QFY13. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.5x FY2015E

    ABV. We maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock.Y/E Op. Inc NIM PAT EPS ABV ROA ROE P/E P/ABVMarch ( cr) ( ) ( cr) () ( ) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2013E 2,691 1.8 438 6.5 82.5 0.3 7.6 6.7 0.5

    FY2014E 2,921 1.8 533 8.4 89.1 0.3 9.2 5.2 0.5

    Corporation Bank(CMP:`300/ TP: / Upside: )Corporation Bank is scheduled to announce its 2QFY2014 results today. We

    expect the bank to report a healthy 18.5% yoy increase in the NII to `951cr on

    back of 16% advances growth. Non-interest income is expected to de-grow by

    4.1% to`313cr. Continuing the trend for last two quarters operating expenses are

    expected to rise higher by 24.2% yoy to`551cr, leading to a weak 4.0% increase

    in pre-provisioning profit to`713cr. Provisioning expenses are expected to increase

    by 67.1% yoy but flat sequentially. Tax expenses are expected to be at`79cr, which

    would result in the decline in net profit by 54.4% yoy. At the CMP, the stock is

    trading at 0.4x FY2015E ABV. We recommend Neutral rating on the stock.Y/E Op. Inc NIM PAT EPS ABV ROA ROE P/E P/ABVMarch ( cr) ( ) ( cr) () ( ) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 5,598 2.0 1,143 74.7 627.4 0.6 11.4 4.2 0.5

    FY2015E 6,036 2.0 1,387 90.7 707.2 0.6 12.6 3.4 0.4

    Godrej Consumer (CMP:`854/TP:-/Upside:-)

    Godrej Consumer is expected to declare its 2QFY2014 results today. We expectthe top-line to grow by 22.2% yoy to `1,950cr. OPM is expected to decline by

    100bp yoy to 14.3%. Bottom-line is expected to increase by 14.4% yoy to`182cr.

    We maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/salesMarch ( cr) ( ) ( cr) () ( ) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 7,801 14.9 778 22.9 23.0 37.3 7.5 26.0 3.9

    FY2015E 9,017 15.9 1,010 29.7 24.7 28.8 6.2 20.8 3.3

    SAIL (CMP:`66/ TP:-/ Upside :-)

    SAIL is expected to announce its 2QFY2014 results today. We expect the

    companys top line to increase by 11.4% yoy to `11,880cr due to increase in

    volumes. We expect EBITDA margin to expand by 107bp yoy to 11.5% in line with

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    Market OutlookNovember 11, 2013

    increase in sales. The bottom line is expected to increase by 38.7% yoy to `695cr.

    We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch ( cr) ( ) ( cr) () ( ) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 47,609 10.6 2,410 5.4 5.411.7 0.6 10.1 1.1FY2015E 52,743 9.6 2,324 4.6 4.414.4 0.6 11.5 1.1

    Glaxo Pharmaceutical (CMP:`2481/TP: - /Upside: -)Glaxo Pharmaceutical is expected to post a 4.7% yoy decline in sales to `2,437cr

    during 3QCY2013. Its OPM is expected at 18.7% a dip of 950bps in 3QCY2012.

    The net profit is likely to come in at`119cr, a dip of 27.4% yoy. We maintain ourneutral stance on the stock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesDec ( cr) ( ) ( cr) () ( ) (x) (x) (x) (x)CY2013E 2,744 22.0 501 59.2 24.941.9 10.4 31.1 6.8

    CY2014E 2,964 23.4 565 66.6 27.537.2 10.1 26.7 6.3

    Britannia (CMP:`918/TP:-/Upside:-)

    Britannia Industries is expected to declare its 2QFY2014 results today. We expect

    the top-line to grow by 13.9% yoy to `1,598cr. OPM is expected to increase by

    417bp yoy to 8.4%. Bottom-line is expected to increase by 97.5% yoy to`89cr. Wemaintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch ( cr) ( ) ( cr) () ( ) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 6,470 7.2 313 26.2 42.2 35.1 13.0 23.4 1.7

    FY2015E 7,481 7.3 374 31.2 38.4 29.4 9.9 19.8 1.4

    Nalco (CMP:`39/TP:-/ Upside :-)

    Nalco is slated to report its 2QFY2014 results today. We expect net sales to

    decrease by 1.2% yoy to`1,567cr. The EBITDA margin is expected to come in at

    9.1% and the net profit is expected to increase by 2119.1% yoy to`106cr due to

    lower base of 2QFY2013. We recommend Neutral on the stock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch ( cr) ( ) ( cr) () ( ) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 6,818 8.7 437 1.7 3.7 23.0 0.8 9.2 0.8

    FY2015E 7,530 10.8 593 2.3 4.9 16.9 0.8 6.9 0.7

    Hexaware (CMP:`134/ TP: -/Upside: -)

    Hexaware is slated to announce its 3QCY2013 results today. We expect the

    company to post revenue growth of 5% qoq to US$99mn. In rupee terms,

    revenues are expected to come in at`

    627cr, up 17% qoq. EBITDA margin isexpected to increase by 40bp qoq to 24.1%, as majority of the gains due to INR

    depreciation is likely to be absorbed by wage hike impact. PAT is expected to come

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    Market OutlookNovember 11, 2013

    in at `103cr. Owing to recent run up in the stock price, we recommend Neutral

    rating on the stock.

    Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesDec ( cr) ( ) ( cr) () ( ) (x) (x) (x) (x)CY2013E 2,302 22.9 387 12.9 26.5 10.4 2.7 6.7 1.5CY2014E 2,650 21.5 418 13.9 24.5 9.7 2.3 6.1 1.3

    Apollo Tyres (CMP:`72/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

    Apollo Tyres (APTY) is slated to announce its 2QFY2014 results today. On a

    consolidated basis, we expect APTY to register a decline of ~4% yoy (flat qoq) in its

    top-line to `3,234cr, mainly due to an ~3% yoy decline in standalone revenues,

    reflecting a slowdown in the OEM segment, and also due to the sale of the

    Ladysmith plant in South Africa. The European subsidiary, however, is expected to

    post a strong growth of ~10% yoy (up ~20% qoq due to seasonality) aided by the

    favorable forex movement even though the demand in the region remains muted.We expect EBITDA margins to improve ~80bp yoy (down 60bp qoq) to 11.7% led

    by price increases and superior mix leading to an ~4% yoy (down ~5% qoq)

    growth in the bottom-line to `158cr. At `72, the stock is trading at 4.7x its

    FY2015E earnings. Currently, we have a Neutral rating on the stock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch ( cr) ( ) ( cr) () ( ) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 13,107 12.0 670 13.3 18.2 5.4 0.9 3.2 0.4

    FY2015E 14,614 11.6 763 15.1 17.7 4.7 0.8 2.7 0.3

    Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

    Godrej Consumer Products Ltd Consol - November 11, 2013Particulars ( cr) 2QFY14E 2QFY13 y-o-y ( ) 1QFY14 q-o-q ( )Net sales 1,946 1,595 22.0 1,720 13.1

    EBITDA 288 249 15.8 225 27.9

    EBITDA margin (%) 14.8 15.6 13.1

    Net profit 187 159 17.3 133 40.9

    NHPC Ltd - November 11, 2013Particulars ( cr) 2QFY14E 2QFY13 y-o-y ( ) 1QFY14 q-o-q ( )Net sales 1,766 1,701 3.8 1,601 10.3

    EBITDA 1,204 1,206 (0.2) 1,071 12.4

    EBITDA margin (%) 68.2 70.9 66.9

    Net profit 778 783 (0.7) 720 8.0

    Reliance Infrastructure Ltd - November 11, 2013Particulars ( cr) 2QFY14E 2QFY13 y-o-y ( ) 1QFY14 q-o-q ( )Net sales 3,302 3,488 (5.3) 3,265 1.2

    EBITDA 443 454 (2.4) 440 0.5

    EBITDA margin (%) 13.4 13.0 13.5

    Net profit 326 414 (21.3) 374 (12.9)

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    Market OutlookNovember 11, 2013

    Reliance Power Ltd Consol - November 11, 2013Particulars ( cr) 2QFY14E 2QFY13 y-o-y ( ) 1QFY14 q-o-q ( )Net sales 1,268 1,079 17.5 1,123 12.9

    EBITDA 473 393 20.4 449 5.4

    EBITDA margin (%) 37.3 36.4 40.0

    Net profit 245 240 2.0 240 2.1

    Steel Authority of India Ltd - November 11, 2013Particulars ( cr) 2QFY14E 2QFY13 y-o-y ( ) 1QFY14 q-o-q ( )Net sales 12,026 10,663 12.8 10,106 19.0

    EBITDA 1,318 1,109 18.8 967 36.3

    EBITDA margin (%) 11.0 10.4 9.6

    Net profit 592 543 9.0 451 31.2

    Tata Chemicals Ltd Consol - November 11, 2013Particulars ( cr) 2QFY14E 2QFY13 y-o-y ( ) 1QFY14 q-o-q ( )Net sales 4,212 4,166 1.1 3,292 28.0

    EBITDA 576 661 (13.0) 411 39.9

    EBITDA margin (%) 13.7 15.9 12.5

    Net profit 210 257 (18.2) 75 179.4

    Canara Bank - November 12, 2013Particulars ( cr) 2QFY14E 2QFY13 y-o-y ( ) 1QFY14 q-o-q ( )Net profit 480 661 (28.9) 792 (40.7)

    GMR Infrastructure Ltd Consol - November 12, 2013Particulars ( cr) 2QFY14E 2QFY13 y-o-y ( ) 1QFY14 q-o-q ( )Net sales 2,199 2,372 (7.3) 2,615 (15.9)

    EBITDA 637 531 19.9 643 (0.9)

    EBITDA margin (%) 29.0 22.4 24.6

    Net profit (325) (179) 0.0 (326) 0.0

    Hindalco Industries Ltd - November 12, 2013Particulars ( cr) 2QFY14E 2QFY13 y-o-y ( ) 1QFY14 q-o-q ( )Net sales 6,850 6,115 12.0 5,767 18.8

    EBITDA 613 515 19.0 478 28.2

    EBITDA margin (%) 9.0 8.4 8.3

    Net profit 385 359 7.3 474 (18.8)

    Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd - November 12, 2013Particulars ( cr) 2QFY14E 2QFY13 y-o-y ( ) 1QFY14 q-o-q ( )Net sales 55,787 48,464 15.1 50,990 9.4

    EBITDA (1,864) 2,914 0.0 (688) 0.0

    EBITDA margin (%) -3.3 6.0 -1.3

    Net profit (2,424) 2,327 0.0 (1,460) 0.0

    Reliance Capital Ltd Consol - November 12, 2013Particulars ( cr) 2QFY14E 2QFY13 y-o-y ( ) 1QFY14 q-o-q ( )Net profit 138 401 (65.6) 133 3.8

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    Reliance Communications Ltd Consol - November 12, 2013Particulars ( cr) 2QFY14E 2QFY13 y-o-y ( ) 1QFY14 q-o-q ( )Net sales 5,375 4,634 16.0 5,246 2.5

    EBITDA 1,705 1,467 16.2 1,604 6.3

    EBITDA margin (%) 31.7 31.7 30.6

    Net profit 118 102 15.4 108 9.0

    Tata Global Beverages Ltd Consol - November 12, 2013Particulars ( cr) 2QFY14E 2QFY13 y-o-y ( ) 1QFY14 q-o-q ( )Net sales 2,028 1,843 10.1 1,796 12.9

    EBITDA 235 161 45.9 207 13.5

    EBITDA margin (%) 11.6 8.7 11.5

    Net profit 142 128 11.1 112 27.5

    Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd - November 13, 2013Particulars ( cr) 2QFY14E 2QFY13 y-o-y ( ) 1QFY14 q-o-q ( )Net sales 67,075 56,860 18.0 58,705 14.3

    EBITDA (668) 5,388 0.0 937 0.0

    EBITDA margin (%) -1.0 9.5 1.6

    Net profit (1,452) 5,035 0.0 150 0.0

    Cipla Ltd/India - November 13, 2013Particulars ( cr) 2QFY14E 2QFY13 y-o-y ( ) 1QFY14 q-o-q ( )Net sales 2,449 2,146 14.1 2,285 7.2

    EBITDA 592 677 (12.5) 675 (12.3)

    EBITDA margin (%) 24.2 31.5 29.6Net profit 388 500 (22.3) 475 (18.2)

    Coal India Ltd Consol - November 13, 2013Particulars ( cr) 2QFY14E 2QFY13 y-o-y ( ) 1QFY14 q-o-q ( )Net sales 15,935 14,573 9.4 16,472 (3.3)

    EBITDA 3,204 2,862 11.9 3,958 (19.1)

    EBITDA margin (%) 20.1 19.6 24.0

    Net profit 3,334 3,078 8.3 3,731 (10.6)

    Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd - November 13, 2013Particulars ( cr) 2QFY14E 2QFY13 y-o-y ( ) 1QFY14 q-o-q ( )Net sales 8,886 9,659 (8.0) 9,906 (10.3)

    EBITDA 1,111 1,119 (0.7) 1,287 (13.7)

    EBITDA margin (%) 12.5 11.6 13.0

    Net profit 871 902 (3.4) 938 (7.1)

    Oil & Natural Gas Corp Ltd - November 13, 2013Particulars ( cr) 2QFY14E 2QFY13 y-o-y ( ) 1QFY14 q-o-q ( )Net sales 22,427 19,788 13.3 19,218 16.7

    EBITDA 11,952 8,289 44.2 6,920 72.7

    EBITDA margin (%) 53.3 41.9 36.0

    Net profit 5,814 5,897 (1.4) 4,016 44.8

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    Rural Electrification Corp Ltd - November 13, 2013Particulars ( cr) 2QFY14E 2QFY13 y-o-y ( ) 1QFY14 q-o-q ( )Net profit 1,130 954 18.5 1,154 (2.0)

    State Bank of India - November 13, 2013Particulars ( cr) 2QFY14E 2QFY13 y-o-y ( ) 1QFY14 q-o-q ( )Net profit 2,827 3,658 (22.7) 3,241 (12.8)

    Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd Consol - November 13, 2013Particulars ( cr) 2QFY14E 2QFY13 y-o-y ( ) 1QFY14 q-o-q ( )Net sales 3,792 2,657 42.7 3,482 8.9

    EBITDA 1,671 1,175 42.2 1,551 7.7

    EBITDA margin (%) 44.1 44.2 44.5

    Net profit 1,252 903 38.6 1,241 0.9

    Tata Steel Ltd Consol - November 13, 2013Particulars ( cr) 2QFY14E 2QFY13 y-o-y ( ) 1QFY14 q-o-q ( )Net sales 34,636 33,867 2.3 32,550 6.4

    EBITDA 3,209 2,310 38.9 3,688 (13.0)

    EBITDA margin (%) 9.3 6.8 11.3

    Net profit 341 (364) 0.0 1,139 (70.1)

    Economic and Political News

    RBI permits third party payments for export, import transactions Global food prices rise in Oct after falling for 5 months Ask PSUs to ink pacts with Centre for mines: CoalMin to States

    Corporate News

    VA Tech Wabag received`2,000cr order H1 FY14 CCI to hold discussions with stakeholders on Jet-Etihad deal IOC opposes govt stake sale at depressed stock price Hyundai launches automatic version of Grand i10

    Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

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    Date Company

    November 12, 2013Hindalco, Bosch India, Canara Bank, Rcom, HPCL, GMR Infra., Reliance Capital, Tata Global, CESC, Bajaj Electrical,Nagarjuna Const.

    November 13, 2013ONGC, Coal India, St Bk of India, M&M, Sun Pharma, Tata Steel, BPCL, Cipla, Rural Elec.Corp., Andhra Bank, GSPL,BGR Energy

    November 14, 2013 Tata Power Co., Jaiprakash Asso., Unitech, Bhushan Steel, IRB Infra, HDIL, Page Industries, Amara Raja Batteries

    November 22, 2013 Siemens

    December 05, 2013 Mphasis

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    Result Calendar

    Global economic events release calendar

    Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

    Last Reported Estimated

    November 12, 2013 3:00PM UK CPI (YoY) % Change Oct 2.70 2.50

    5:30PM India Industrial Production YoY % Change Sep 0.60 3.50

    November 13, 2013 3:00PM UK Jobless claims change % Change Oct (41.70) (30.00)

    November 14, 2013 7:00PM US Initial Jobless claims Thousands Nov 9 336.00 330.0012:30PM Germany GDP nsa (YoY) % Change 3Q P 0.90 1.00

    3:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) % Change 3Q A 0.30 0.10

    November 15, 2013 12:00PM India Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY% % Change Oct 6.46 6.90

    3:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) % Oct F 0.70 0.70

    7:45PM US Industrial Production % Oct 0.57 0.20

    November 20, 2013 7:00PM US Consumer price index (mom) % Change Oct 0.18 (0.03)

    8:30PM US Existing home sales Million Oct 5.29 5.25

    November 21, 2013 2:00PM Germany PMI Services Value Nov A 52.90 --

    2:00PM Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Nov A 51.70 --

    7:00PM US Producer Price Index (mom) % Change Oct (0.10) (0.10)

    8:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Value Nov A (14.50) --

    November 26, 2013 7:00PM US Housing Starts Thousands Oct 891.00 --

    7:00PM US Building permits Thousands Oct 926.00 --

    8:30PM US Consumer Confidence S.A./ 1985=100 Nov 71.20 --

    November 27, 2013 3:00PM UK GDP (YoY) % Change 3Q P 1.50 --

    November 28, 2013 2:25PM Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Nov 2.00 --

    November 29, 2013 5:30PM India Qtrly GDP YoY% % Change 3Q 4.40 --

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    November 11, 2013

    Market Outlook

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    Market OutlookNovember 11, 2013

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    Macro watch

    Exhibit 1:Q uarterly G DP trends

    Source: CSO, Angel Research

    Exhibit 2:IIP trends

    Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

    Exhibit 3:M onthly WPI inflation trends

    Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

    Exhibit 4:M a nufacturing a nd services PM I

    Source: Ma rket, Angel Research; N ote: Level above 50 ind icates expansion

    Exhibit 5:Exports and imports growth trends

    Source: Bloomberg , Angel Research

    Exhibit 6:Key po licy ra tes

    Source: RBI, Angel Research

    7.7

    11.4

    9.5

    8.69.2

    9.9

    7.5

    6.56.0

    5.1 5.4 5.24.7 4.8 4.4

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    6.0

    7.0

    8.0

    9.0

    10.0

    11.0

    12.0

    3QFY10

    4QFY10

    1QFY11

    2QFY11

    3QFY11

    4QFY11

    1QFY12

    2QFY12

    3QFY12

    4QFY12

    1QFY13

    2QFY13

    3QFY13

    4QFY13

    1QFY14

    (%)

    (0.7)

    8.4

    (1.0) (0.6)

    2.5

    0.6

    3.5

    1.5

    (2.5)(1.8)

    2.8

    0.6

    (4.0)

    (2.0)

    -

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    Sep-1

    2

    Oc-1

    2

    No-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Jan-1

    3

    Feb

    -13

    Mar-13

    Apr-13

    May-1

    3

    Jun-1

    3

    Jul-13

    Aug-1

    3

    (%)

    7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3

    5.7

    4.8 4.65.2

    5.9 6.16.5

    0.0

    1.0

    2.0

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    6.0

    7.0

    8.0

    No-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Jan-1

    3

    Feb

    -13

    Mar-13

    Apr-13

    May-1

    3

    Jun-1

    3

    Jul-13

    Aug-1

    3

    Sep-1

    3

    (%)

    44.0

    46.0

    48.0

    50.0

    52.0

    54.0

    56.0

    58.0

    60.0

    Jul-12

    Aug-1

    2

    Sep-1

    2

    Oc-1

    2

    Nov-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Jan-1

    3

    Feb

    -13

    Mar-13

    Apr-13

    May-1

    3

    Jun-1

    3

    Jul-13

    Aug-1

    3

    Sep-1

    3

    Mfg. PMI Services PMI

    (21.0)(18.0)

    (15.0)(12.0)

    (9.0)(6.0)(3.0)0.0

    3.06.0

    9.012.015.0

    Oc-1

    2

    Nov-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Jan-1

    3

    Feb

    -13

    Mar-13

    Apr-13

    May-1

    3

    Jun-1

    3

    Jul-13

    Aug-1

    3

    Sep-1

    3

    Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)

    3.00

    4.00

    5.00

    6.00

    7.00

    8.00

    9.00

    No-12

    Dec-12

    Dec-12

    Jan-13

    Feb-13

    Mar-13

    Mar-13

    Apr-13

    Apr-13

    Ma-13

    Jun-13

    Jun-13

    Jul-13

    Aug-13

    Aug-13

    Sep-13

    Oc-13

    Oc-13

    Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR(%)

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price () ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Agri / Agri Chemical

    Rallis Neutral 159 - 3,085 1,696 1,983 14.9 14.9 7.7 8.8 20.6 18.0 4.3 3.7 22.4 21.9 2.0 1.7

    United Phosphorus Buy 168 225 7,427 10,091 11,302 16.5 16.5 19.2 22.5 8.7 7.5 1.4 1.2 17.0 17.2 0.9 0.8

    Auto & Auto Ancillary

    Amara Raja Batteries Neutral 305 - 5,203 3,474 3,952 15.5 15.5 19.0 21.0 16.0 14.5 3.9 3.2 27.2 24.2 1.5 1.3

    Apollo Tyres Neutral 72 - 3,609 13,107 14,614 12.0 11.6 13.3 15.1 5.4 4.7 0.9 0.8 18.2 17.7 0.4 0.3

    Ashok Leyland Neutral 17 - 4,523 11,264 13,796 3.8 8.0 (0.8) 1.2 (21.3) 14.8 1.6 1.6 (5.0) 7.4 0.6 0.4

    Automotive Axle# Neutral 256 - 386 700 890 8.7 10.7 11.1 25.8 23.0 9.9 1.4 1.3 6.2 13.9 0.6 0.5

    Bajaj Auto Accumulate 2,068 2,360 59,827 21,710 24,818 20.5 21.0 124.2 146.6 16.7 14.1 6.0 4.7 40.2 37.4 2.4 2.0

    Bharat Forge Accumulate 294 325 6,845 6,214 6,897 16.2 16.8 16.6 21.7 17.7 13.6 2.7 2.4 16.2 18.7 1.3 1.1

    Bosch India* Neutral 8,704 - 27,330 9,015 10,851 16.2 17.6 314.1 407.5 27.7 21.4 4.3 3.7 15.6 17.3 2.7 2.2

    CEAT Neutral 236 - 850 5,260 5,843 12.0 11.7 76.4 83.3 3.1 2.8 0.8 0.7 30.2 25.5 0.3 0.3

    Exide Industries Neutral 123 - 10,425 6,178 6,894 14.7 15.2 6.8 7.8 18.2 15.7 2.7 2.4 15.8 16.1 1.4 1.2

    FAG Bearings* Accumulate 1,358 1,481 2,256 1,409 1,664 13.4 15.4 73.3 98.7 18.5 13.8 2.3 2.0 13.0 15.4 1.5 1.3

    Hero Motocorp Neutral 2,093 - 41,794 25,059 28,156 14.2 14.5 104.7 145.5 20.0 14.4 7.3 5.8 39.1 45.1 1.5 1.3

    JK Tyre Accumulate 134 146 550 7,530 8,294 11.3 11.1 70.2 73.2 1.9 1.8 0.5 0.4 27.7 22.8 0.4 0.4

    Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate 879 996 54,140 41,672 46,910 12.0 12.2 57.6 65.6 15.3 13.4 3.0 2.6 21.3 20.7 1.1 0.9

    Maruti Neutral 1,578 - 47,665 45,053 52,429 11.6 11.3 96.5 111.7 16.4 14.1 2.3 2.0 14.7 14.8 0.9 0.7

    Motherson Sumi Accumulate 276 314 16,196 29,041 32,582 8.8 8.8 14.8 18.5 18.6 14.9 5.1 3.9 31.9 29.7 0.7 0.6

    Subros Neutral 25 - 152 1,230 1,398 10.5 10.5 2.3 3.8 10.9 6.7 0.5 0.5 4.8 7.6 0.4 0.3

    Tata Motors Accumulate 385 422 103,722 228,397 263,300 14.6 15.0 42.1 52.2 9.2 7.4 2.4 1.9 30.6 28.5 0.5 0.4

    TVS Motor Neutral 49 - 2,345 7,844 8,878 6.0 6.2 5.1 6.4 9.8 7.7 1.7 1.4 18.3 20.1 0.2 0.2

    Capital Goods

    ABB* Sell 620 442 13,135 7,802 8,631 5.3 6.3 9.5 13.4 65.5 46.3 5.0 4.8 7.7 10.6 1.7 1.5

    BGR Energy Accumulate 110 124 794 3,541 3,995 12.1 11.0 22.0 24.8 5.0 4.5 0.6 0.6 22.6 20.7 0.5 0.4

    BHEL Neutral 135 - 33,153 41,082 38,590 15.0 14.1 16.5 14.3 8.2 9.4 1.5 1.4 19.2 14.9 0.7 0.8

    Blue Star Buy 151 208 1,360 2,941 3,099 3.4 4.2 6.0 9.3 25.3 16.3 3.1 2.7 12.9 18.0 0.6 0.6

    Crompton Greaves Neutral 107 - 6,851 13,272 14,982 5.7 6.7 5.6 8.0 19.0 13.3 1.8 1.6 9.8 12.8 0.6 0.6

    Jyoti Structures Neutral 25 - 202 3,312 3,555 9.0 9.0 4.9 7.0 5.0 3.5 0.3 0.3 6.1 8.2 0.3 0.3

    KEC International Reduce 41 39 1,049 7,709 8,399 6.2 6.9 5.2 7.7 7.9 5.3 0.8 0.7 16.7 20.7 0.3 0.3

    Thermax Neutral 624 - 7,440 5,832 6,397 9.1 9.6 28.8 32.9 21.7 19.0 3.5 3.1 17.2 17.3 1.2 1.1

    Cement

    ACC Accumulate 1,090 1,225 20,455 11,230 12,715 15.7 17.6 53.0 70.0 20.5 15.6 2.6 2.4 13.0 15.9 1.6 1.3

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    Market Outlook

    Stock Watch

    November 11, 2013

  • 8/14/2019 Market Outlook 11-11-2013

    18/23

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price () ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Cement

    Ambuja Cements Neutral 177 - 27,341 9,369 10,770 20.3 22.6 8.1 9.9 21.9 17.9 2.9 2.7 13.7 15.5 2.4 2.0

    India Cements Neutral 51 - 1,564 4,681 5,252 14.3 14.3 4.8 7.0 10.7 7.3 0.4 0.4 4.2 5.9 0.8 0.7

    J K Lakshmi Cement Accumulate 68 79 801 2,029 2,354 16.5 18.8 9.4 12.4 7.3 5.5 0.6 0.6 8.5 10.3 0.6 1.1

    Ramco Cements Neutral 174 - 4,136 3,878 4,499 22.7 23.0 13.2 17.6 13.2 9.9 1.6 1.4 12.5 14.8 1.8 1.5

    Shree Cement^ Neutral 4,414 - 15,378 6,359 7,075 25.9 24.9 286.8 322.2 15.4 13.7 3.3 2.7 23.4 21.6 1.9 1.6

    UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,922 - 52,703 20,715 23,948 20.7 20.0 85.9 93.5 22.4 20.6 3.1 2.7 14.5 14.1 2.6 2.4

    Construction

    Ashoka Buildcon Accumulate 55 60 869 1,912 2,131 21.0 21.5 5.0 5.5 11.0 10.1 0.8 0.7 8.8 7.6 1.7 1.8

    Consolidated Co Neutral 4 - 82 1,715 1,824 2.4 6.2 (2.9) (0.4) (1.5) (12.4) 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5

    IRB Infra Buy 90 106 2,986 3,805 4,248 45.1 45.3 15.0 15.8 6.0 5.7 0.8 0.8 14.5 13.9 3.0 3.2

    ITNL Buy 120 156 2,336 7,423 7,970 27.5 28.7 30.3 32.0 4.0 3.8 0.6 0.5 15.0 14.0 2.4 2.5

    IVRCL Infra Neutral 14 - 436 5,673 5,892 7.8 7.6 (1.7) (2.0) (8.6) (7.2) 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6

    Jaiprakash Asso. Neutral 48 - 10,541 12,946 14,897 24.7 25.6 1.2 2.7 38.7 17.7 0.8 0.8 2.0 4.3 2.7 2.4

    Larsen & Toubro Neutral 974 - 90,078 66,667 74,669 10.0 10.0 46.9 52.2 20.8 18.7 2.9 2.6 14.2 14.5 1.5 1.3

    Nagarjuna Const. Accumulate 26 30 667 6,167 6,945 8.0 8.2 2.7 3.6 9.7 7.2 0.3 0.3 2.7 3.6 0.5 0.4

    Punj Lloyd Neutral 27 - 912 12,726 14,226 8.2 8.2 0.9 1.0 32.0 26.9 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.6

    Sadbhav Engg. Buy 67 99 1,018 2,462 2,731 10.6 10.6 5.3 6.0 12.8 11.2 1.1 1.0 9.2 9.6 0.7 0.7

    Simplex Infra Neutral 65 - 322 6,237 6,908 9.1 9.0 9.9 13.9 6.6 4.7 0.2 0.2 3.7 5.0 0.5 0.5

    Unity Infra Neutral 25 - 186 2,146 2,339 12.9 13.0 9.3 9.6 2.7 2.6 0.2 0.2 8.0 7.7 0.7 0.7

    Financials

    Allahabad Bank Neutral 91 - 4,560 7,267 7,573 2.5 2.5 25.2 29.7 3.6 3.1 0.6 0.5 11.5 12.3 - -

    Andhra Bank Neutral 64 - 3,573 4,792 5,192 2.4 2.4 11.7 15.7 5.5 4.1 0.5 0.5 7.6 9.5 - -

    Axis Bank Buy 1,118 1,521 52,475 19,329 22,724 3.4 3.4 129.3 157.5 8.7 7.1 1.4 1.2 17.1 18.1 - -

    Bank of Baroda Neutral 601 - 25,322 15,917 17,875 2.1 2.2 105.0 122.7 5.7 4.9 0.8 0.7 13.2 13.9 - -

    Bank of India Neutral 220 - 13,110 14,574 16,010 2.2 2.1 53.0 59.6 4.2 3.7 0.6 0.5 13.2 13.4 - -

    Bank of Maharashtra Neutral 39 - 2,603 4,454 4,728 2.9 2.8 9.1 10.0 4.3 3.9 0.6 0.5 12.5 12.5 - -

    Canara Bank Neutral 254 - 11,246 11,406 12,404 1.9 1.9 48.7 58.8 5.2 4.3 0.5 0.5 9.1 10.2 - -

    Central Bank Neutral 59 - 6,111 8,224 9,221 2.3 2.4 5.7 14.6 10.2 4.0 0.7 0.6 5.0 11.8 - -

    Corporation Bank Neutral 300 - 4,584 5,598 6,036 2.0 2.0 74.7 90.7 4.0 3.3 0.5 0.4 11.4 12.6 - -

    Dena Bank Neutral 60 - 2,085 3,299 3,515 2.2 2.3 17.0 21.1 3.5 2.8 0.4 0.4 11.5 12.9 - -

    Federal Bank Accumulate 78 89 6,664 2,844 3,235 3.0 2.9 8.6 10.2 9.1 7.7 1.0 0.9 11.0 12.0 - -

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    Market Outlook

    Stock Watch

    November 11, 2013

  • 8/14/2019 Market Outlook 11-11-2013

    19/23

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price () ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Financials

    HDFC Neutral 809 - 126,129 8,679 10,350 3.6 3.6 37.5 44.7 21.6 18.1 4.5 4.0 30.1 30.7 - -

    HDFC Bank Accumulate 653 752 156,482 26,708 32,441 4.6 4.7 35.9 45.5 18.2 14.4 3.6 3.0 21.6 23.0 - -

    ICICI Bank Buy 1,050 1,364 121,184 25,965 30,092 3.2 3.2 81.9 96.5 12.8 10.9 1.7 1.5 14.6 15.3 - -

    IDBI Bank Neutral 67 - 8,930 9,286 10,419 1.9 2.0 10.4 19.2 6.5 3.5 0.5 0.4 6.9 11.9 - -

    Indian Bank Neutral 96 - 4,126 5,919 6,374 2.7 2.7 27.8 32.6 3.5 3.0 0.4 0.4 11.4 12.2 - -

    IOB Neutral 52 - 4,810 7,849 8,451 2.3 2.3 6.8 14.7 7.6 3.6 0.5 0.4 5.0 10.2 - -

    J & K Bank Neutral 1,297 - 6,288 3,062 3,397 3.8 3.9 225.6 205.6 5.8 6.3 1.1 1.0 20.7 16.4 - -

    LIC Housing Finance Neutral 212 - 10,711 2,063 2,507 2.3 2.3 24.5 28.9 8.7 7.3 1.5 1.3 17.7 18.2 - -

    Oriental Bank Neutral 181 - 5,294 6,817 7,379 2.6 2.6 44.2 51.2 4.1 3.5 0.5 0.4 10.2 10.9 - -

    Punjab Natl.Bank Neutral 522 - 18,453 20,622 23,258 3.3 3.3 124.0 158.9 4.2 3.3 0.6 0.5 13.3 15.3 - -

    South Ind.Bank Accumulate 22 25 2,950 1,790 2,000 2.8 2.7 3.6 4.2 6.1 5.2 0.9 0.8 15.9 16.3 - -

    St Bk of India Neutral 1,744 - 119,313 65,495 74,415 3.0 3.0 176.2 224.1 9.9 7.8 1.3 1.1 12.0 13.8 - -

    Syndicate Bank Neutral 85 - 5,093 6,831 7,512 2.5 2.5 25.9 22.1 3.3 3.8 0.5 0.4 15.4 11.8 - -

    UCO Bank Accumulate 75 79 5,626 7,367 8,210 3.0 3.1 18.9 20.9 4.0 3.6 0.8 0.7 18.1 17.3 - -

    Union Bank Neutral 128 - 7,636 10,630 11,936 2.4 2.4 26.4 38.5 4.9 3.3 0.5 0.5 9.7 12.9 - -

    United Bank Neutral 38 - 1,415 3,407 3,704 2.1 2.3 6.4 12.2 5.9 3.1 0.4 0.4 5.3 9.5 - -

    Vijaya Bank Neutral 42 - 2,104 2,691 2,921 1.8 1.8 6.5 8.4 6.6 5.1 0.5 0.5 7.6 9.2 - -

    Yes Bank Accumulate 354 393 12,756 4,424 5,261 2.8 2.9 43.1 49.4 8.2 7.2 1.8 1.5 24.0 22.7 - -

    FMCG

    Asian Paints Neutral 557 - 53,379 12,473 14,581 15.8 16.0 13.2 15.7 42.2 35.5 13.0 10.3 33.7 32.4 4.1 3.5

    Britannia Neutral 918 - 11,004 6,470 7,481 7.2 7.3 26.2 31.3 35.1 29.4 13.0 10.0 42.2 38.4 1.7 1.5

    Colgate Neutral 1,236 - 16,810 3,588 4,130 17.4 17.8 38.3 44.9 32.3 27.6 28.4 23.1 96.2 92.5 4.5 3.9

    Dabur India Neutral 163 - 28,468 7,120 8,188 16.8 16.9 5.3 6.3 30.6 26.1 10.7 8.6 39.1 36.6 4.2 3.6

    GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 4,623 - 19,440 3,617 4,259 16.1 16.4 125.0 152.0 37.0 30.4 11.7 9.3 34.8 34.1 5.1 4.2

    Godrej Consumer Neutral 854 - 29,056 7,801 9,017 14.9 15.9 22.9 29.7 37.4 28.8 7.5 6.2 23.0 24.7 3.8 3.2

    HUL Neutral 585 - 126,456 28,415 31,962 13.6 13.7 16.6 18.3 35.2 32.0 33.6 24.3 111.7 88.2 4.3 3.8

    ITC Neutral 320 - 253,290 33,414 38,654 35.8 36.5 11.0 12.8 29.0 24.9 9.4 7.7 35.4 34.0 7.3 6.2

    Marico Neutral 207 - 13,368 4,849 5,578 15.0 15.5 7.3 9.0 28.3 23.1 5.6 4.6 21.5 21.7 2.8 2.4

    Nestle* Neutral 5,752 - 55,463 9,330 10,860 21.8 21.9 122.6 149.2 46.9 38.6 23.0 16.8 56.1 50.3 5.8 5.0

    Tata Global Neutral 160 - 9,901 8,070 8,958 9.8 9.9 7.2 8.3 22.1 19.4 2.5 2.4 8.9 9.5 1.2 1.1

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    Market Outlook

    Stock Watch

    November 11, 2013

  • 8/14/2019 Market Outlook 11-11-2013

    20/23

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price () ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    IT

    HCL Tech^ Accumulate 1,112 1,220 77,645 33,138 36,758 25.2 23.7 81.5 87.0 13.7 12.8 4.1 3.2 30.2 25.5 2.0 1.7

    Hexaware* Neutral 134 - 4,019 2 ,302 2 ,650 22.9 21.5 12.9 13.9 10.4 9.7 2.7 2.3 26.5 24.5 1.6 1.3

    Infosys Accumulate 3,358 3,480 192,800 49,988 55,817 26.7 27.3 179.9 216.2 18.7 15.5 3.9 3.2 21.1 20.9 3.2 2.7

    Infotech Enterprises Neutral 246 - 2,748 2,135 2,344 18.5 18.2 22.8 25.3 10.8 9.7 1.7 1.5 16.2 15.3 0.9 0.8

    KPIT Cummins Neutral 152 - 2,943 2,769 3,134 16.0 16.1 13.4 15.7 11.4 9.7 2.1 1.7 20.0 19.0 1.0 0.8

    Mindtree Accumulate 1,379 1,500 5,735 3,011 3,485 20.3 20.8 112.8 128.2 12.2 10.8 3.2 2.4 26.6 23.2 1.6 1.3

    Mphasis& Accumulate 411 464 8,640 6,938 7,373 18.8 18.3 42.8 46.4 9.6 8.9 1.5 1.3 15.7 14.7 0.8 0.6

    NIIT Neutral 21 - 343 1,023 1,113 6.5 7.1 1.9 3.8 11.2 5.5 0.5 0.5 4.7 9.0 0.1 -

    Persistent Neutral 810 - 3,239 1,671 1,934 25.1 25.8 59.9 72.1 13.5 11.2 2.6 2.1 19.3 19.1 1.6 1.2

    TCS Buy 2,093 2,500 409,923 81,883 95,264 31.4 31.1 97.4 115.8 21.5 18.1 7.3 5.7 34.2 31.6 4.8 4.0

    Tech Mahindra Accumulate 1,674 1,750 38,913 18,565 21,309 22.5 21.7 121.0 129.7 13.8 12.9 4.2 3.2 30.1 24.8 1.7 1.4

    Wipro Buy 481 567 118,640 44,029 49,961 22.8 23.5 31.5 36.5 15.3 13.2 3.5 2.9 22.5 21.6 2.3 1.9

    Media

    D B Corp Accumulate 265 289 4,866 1,797 1,996 25.1 26.5 14.6 17.3 18.2 15.3 4.7 4.0 24.0 24.2 2.6 2.3

    HT Media Buy 82 104 1,927 2,195 2,360 14.5 15.0 7.7 8.4 10.7 9.7 1.2 1.1 10.7 10.7 0.5 0.4

    Jagran Prakashan Buy 87 104 2,871 1,683 1,845 21.0 22.3 6.4 7.2 13.5 12.1 2.7 2.5 20.9 21.5 1.8 1.6

    PVR Neutral 558 - 2,217 1,397 1,717 18.4 18.2 17.1 22.5 32.7 24.8 3.2 3.0 10.2 12.5 2.1 1.7

    Sun TV Network Neutral 413 - 16,276 2,287 2,551 69.7 71.2 20.0 23.8 20.6 17.4 5.1 4.5 26.4 27.8 7.4 6.5

    Metals & Mining

    Bhushan Steel Reduce 496 419 11,229 12,640 15,667 28.5 31.5 25.9 38.6 19.2 12.9 1.1 1.0 6.1 8.5 2.7 2.2

    Coal India Neutral 291 - 183,964 70,161 74,065 30.4 26.1 26.1 26.7 11.2 10.9 2.8 2.4 32.6 30.8 1.8 1.7

    Electrosteel Castings Neutral 14 - 455 1,976 2,017 11.8 12.7 0.1 1.2 218.4 11.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.9 0.7 0.1

    GMDC Buy 103 131 3,287 1,477 1,890 42.2 46.4 13.5 18.7 7.7 5.5 1.2 1.0 16.4 19.9 2.0 1.4

    Hind. Zinc Buy 134 156 56,746 12,882 13,550 53.6 51.9 16.4 17.0 8.2 7.9 1.5 1.3 19.8 17.7 2.3 1.8

    Hindalco Neutral 116 - 24,042 95,465 100,859 8.4 8.9 13.1 15.4 8.9 7.6 0.6 0.6 7.0 7.7 0.7 0.7

    JSW Steel Reduce 866 775 20,932 43,864 47,588 16.8 17.4 70.5 87.8 12.3 9.9 1.3 1.1 10.1 12.0 1.0 0.9

    MOIL Neutral 230 - 3,864 956 982 42.3 44.3 25.3 26.2 9.1 8.8 1.3 1.1 14.6 13.7 1.4 1.5

    Monnet Ispat Neutral 144 - 916 2,199 2,575 21.6 22.8 30.7 38.6 4.7 3.7 0.3 0.3 7.7 8.9 1.5 1.2

    Nalco Neutral 39 - 9,935 7,270 7,521 13.6 13.8 2.8 2.9 13.9 13.3 0.8 0.8 5.9 6.0 0.7 0.7

    NMDC Accumulate 137 151 54,297 11,209 11,948 68.5 66.6 16.5 17.0 8.3 8.1 1.8 1.6 21.7 20.7 3.0 2.7

    SAIL Neutral 66 - 27,279 44,060 54,227 9.2 10.9 5.3 6.8 12.5 9.7 0.7 0.6 5.2 6.5 0.9 0.7

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    Market Outlook

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    November 11, 2013

  • 8/14/2019 Market Outlook 11-11-2013

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price () ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Metals & Mining

    Sesa Sterlite Neutral 200 - 59,249 68,018 73,756 34.6 34.6 27.6 33.2 7.3 6.0 0.6 0.5 10.6 9.2 1.3 1.1

    Tata Steel Buy 356 390 34,536 153,835 165,673 9.0 9.7 34.2 39.6 10.4 9.0 1.0 0.9 9.5 10.2 0.5 0.5

    Sarda Buy 105 138 377 1,096 1,134 16.8 17.3 21.8 23.5 4.8 4.5 0.4 0.4 8.2 8.2 0.4 0.3

    Prakash Industries Neutral 37 - 491 2,486 2,637 15.2 15.0 13.7 14.2 2.7 2.6 0.2 0.2 9.1 8.7 0.4 0.4

    Godawari Power andIspat

    Neutral 90 - 295 2,171 2,317 14.9 15.8 36.4 46.6 2.5 1.9 0.3 0.2 11.6 13.0 0.6 0.5

    Oil & Gas

    Cairn India Buy 311 380 59,373 19,470 19,621 73.0 63.4 63.4 61.9 4.9 5.0 1.0 0.9 23.1 19.0 1.9 1.6GAIL Neutral 340 - 43,128 52,926 57,790 13.1 12.8 31.4 33.3 10.8 10.2 1.6 1.4 15.5 14.7 0.8 0.7

    ONGC Buy 277 350 237,244 164,816 196,050 33.7 36.6 30.0 38.7 9.3 7.2 1.4 1.3 16.0 18.5 1.2 0.9

    Reliance Industries Neutral 876 - 282,872 464,837 495,385 6.9 7.1 72.0 80.1 12.2 10.9 1.3 1.2 11.2 11.3 0.6 0.6

    Gujarat Gas* Neutral 275 - 3,526 3,270 3,414 12.8 12.6 22.6 23.1 12.2 11.9 3.2 2.9 28.2 25.6 1.0 0.9

    Indraprastha Gas Neutral 276 - 3,860 4,488 5,418 17.6 15.5 25.7 27.4 10.7 10.1 2.2 1.9 22.1 20.3 0.9 0.7

    Petronet LNG Neutral 125 - 9,353 37,686 44,414 4.4 4.4 11.4 13.2 10.9 9.5 1.8 1.6 17.8 17.9 0.3 0.3

    Gujarat State PetronetLtd.

    Accumulate 61 67 3,441 1,002 1,021 91.4 91.5 8.2 8.4 7.5 7.3 1.0 0.9 14.3 13.0 3.0 2.8

    Pharmaceuticals

    Alembic Pharma Neutral 205 - 3,859 1,736 2,008 17.1 18.9 10.5 13.8 19.5 14.8 6.0 4.5 34.4 34.7 2.3 1.9

    Aurobindo Pharma Buy 260 362 7,585 6,930 7,970 18.5 18.5 24.9 29.3 10.5 8.9 2.3 1.8 26.1 23.9 1.4 1.2

    Aventis* Neutral 2,566 - 5,910 1,682 1,917 15.6 15.6 91.9 101.7 27.9 25.2 3.9 3.9 15.6 17.1 3.1 2.5

    Cadila Healthcare Buy 715 894 14,644 7,123 8,367 15.5 15.7 37.3 44.7 19.2 16.0 4.0 3.4 22.9 22.9 2.4 2.0

    Cipla Buy 423 504 33,964 9,274 10,796 23.1 23.1 21.0 23.8 20.1 17.8 3.2 2.8 17.2 16.8 3.4 2.9

    Dr Reddy's Buy 2,401 2,949 40,824 13,377 15,350 23.4 23.1 130.3 147.5 18.4 16.3 4.4 3.6 26.8 24.2 3.1 2.7

    Dishman Pharma Buy 87 107 703 1,394 1,534 22.5 22.4 14.8 16.6 5.9 5.3 0.6 0.6 10.8 11.0 1.1 0.9

    GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,481 - 21,015 2,744 2,964 22.0 23.4 59.2 66.6 41.9 37.3 10.4 10.1 24.9 27.5 6.9 6.3

    Indoco Remedies Buy 93 855 747 906 15.3 15.3 5.9 7.6 15.7 12.2 1.9 1.7 12.5 14.4 1.4 1.2

    Ipca labs Buy 696 791 8,781 3,296 4,087 22.3 23.5 40.4 52.7 17.2 13.2 4.4 3.4 28.7 28.8 2.8 2.2

    Lupin Neutral 884 - 39,594 11,576 13,855 22.0 22.0 35.8 43.0 24.7 20.6 6.0 4.8 27.1 25.8 3.4 2.8

    Ranbaxy* Neutral 422 - 17,848 10,400 11,331 6.6 8.4 11.4 15.2 37.0 27.8 3.9 3.4 11.1 13.1 1.8 1.6

    Sun Pharma Neutral 602 - 124,701 13,509 15,846 41.0 41.0 16.5 19.9 36.5 30.3 7.4 6.1 22.0 22.0 8.8 7.3

    Power

    GIPCL Neutral 61 - 915 1,395 1,448 31.9 32.5 11.5 14.2 5.2 4.3 0.5 0.5 10.4 11.7 0.8 0.5

    NTPC Accumulate 153 163 125,826 75,343 81,947 23.5 23.9 12.7 13.7 12.0 11.2 1.4 1.4 12.3 12.4 2.4 2.3

    Real Estate

    DLF Accumulate 153 179 27,169 8,293 9,622 36.5 36.1 5.7 6.7 26.7 22.6 1.0 0.9 3.7 4.1 5.4 4.5

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price () ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Real Estate

    MLIFE Buy 403 483 1,644 888 1,002 27.0 29.9 33.9 42.1 11.9 9.6 1.2 1.1 9.9 11.2 2.5 2.2

    Telecom

    Bharti Airtel Accumulate 344 391 137,511 86,141 94,758 32.3 32.2 8.7 13.4 39.5 25.7 2.5 2.2 6.5 9.2 2.3 2.0

    Idea Cellular Neutral 164 - 54,485 26,157 28,425 31.3 31.3 5.7 6.9 29.1 23.7 3.3 2.9 11.5 12.3 2.5 2.2

    Rcom Neutral 140 - 28,814 22,026 23,613 30.6 30.8 2.9 5.2 47.9 26.7 0.8 0.8 1.8 3.1 3.0 2.7

    Others

    Abbott India* Buy 1,462 1,628 3,106 1,788 1,996 12.5 12.7 71.7 81.4 20.4 18.0 4.1 3.5 21.7 21.2 1.4 1.2

    Bajaj Electricals Accumulate 174 184 1,735 3,885 4,472 4.0 5.8 6.8 15.4 25.8 11.3 2.3 2.0 8.8 17.3 0.4 0.4

    Cera Sanitaryware Buy 565 664 715 647 836 13.5 13.4 40.4 51.1 14.0 11.1 3.2 2.5 25.4 25.6 1.1 0.9

    Cravatex Buy 226 307 58 248 284 6.5 7.3 27.2 38.2 8.3 5.9 1.3 1.1 15.7 18.5 0.4 0.4

    Finolex Cables Accumulate 65 68 998 2,563 2,899 9.8 9.8 10.1 11.3 6.5 5.8 0.9 0.8 14.3 13.8 0.3 0.3

    Force Motors Accumulate 315 349 411 2,046 2,426 3.6 4.3 28.0 43.6 11.3 7.2 0.3 0.3 3.1 4.6 0.2 0.2

    Goodyear India* Buy 342 383 788 1,581 1,724 8.9 8.7 38.8 41.2 8.8 8.3 1.9 1.6 23.0 20.6 0.3 0.2

    Hitachi Buy 107 153 291 1,080 1,199 8.9 9.1 18.3 19.1 5.9 5.6 1.0 0.9 19.2 17.0 0.4 0.3

    Honeywell Automation* Neutral 2,534 - 2,240 1,842 2,131 7.7 7.8 111.1 130.9 22.8 19.4 2.9 2.5 13.3 13.9 1.1 0.9

    IFB Agro Accumulate 143 156 129 491 642 12.3 13.8 35.0 50.9 4.1 2.8 0.7 0.6 18.2 21.6 0.2 0.1

    ITD Cementation Buy 146 189 168 1,313 1,444 10.6 11.2 7.9 26.2 18.5 5.6 0.4 0.4 2.3 7.2 0.6 0.5

    Jyothy Laboratories Accumulate 184 207 3,062 1,244 1,523 13.6 13.9 5.3 9.0 35.0 20.5 3.1 2.7 10.6 14.2 2.7 2.1

    MRF Neutral 16,398 - 6,955 11,799 12,587 14.1 13.5 1,792.0 1,802.0 9.2 9.1 1.9 1.6 23.5 19.2 0.7 0.7

    Page Industries Neutral 4,680 - 5,220 1,059 1,296 19.5 19.8 125.0 155.6 37.5 30.1 18.5 13.6 56.3 52.2 5.2 4.2

    Relaxo Footwears Buy 830 981 996 1,196 1,401 11.9 12.6 55.6 75.4 14.9 11.0 3.6 2.7 27.1 28.1 1.0 0.8

    Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 248 319 232 1,216 1,396 10.8 11.0 65.3 79.8 3.8 3.1 0.6 0.5 18.0 18.7 0.4 0.4

    Styrolution ABS India* Buy 404 492 711 1,007 1,108 8.4 8.7 30.3 35.1 13.3 11.5 1.5 1.3 11.7 12.2 0.7 0.6

    TAJ GVK Buy 59 108 369 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 7.5 6.5 1.0 0.9 13.9 14.4 1.5 1.3

    Tata Sponge Iron Buy 298 371 458 814 849 17.0 17.6 64.6 69.2 4.6 4.3 0.6 0.6 14.5 13.8 0.2 -

    TTK Healthcare Buy 509 614 395 416 475 4.8 6.5 16.3 25.2 31.2 20.2 3.9 3.4 12.6 18.0 0.8 0.7

    Tree House Buy 250 297 899 153 194 53.0 52.8 12.4 15.6 20.2 16.0 2.4 2.1 11.8 13.1 6.1 4.6

    TVS Srichakra Reduce 274 230 210 1,591 1,720 6.1 6.4 30.5 38.3 9.0 7.2 1.2 1.1 13.5 15.5 0.3 0.3

    United Spirits Neutral 2,394 - 34,791 12,294 14,162 12.0 12.0 42.1 67.7 56.9 35.4 4.0 3.6 9.1 10.7 3.3 2.8

    Vesuvius India* Accumulate 387 439 785 600 638 20.1 19.4 35.7 36.6 10.8 10.6 1.9 1.7 19.4 17.1 1.1 1.0

    HSIL Buy 91 117 600 2,042 2,363 14.6 14.8 12.3 16.5 7.4 5.5 0.6 0.5 7.6 9.4 0.8 0.7

    Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on November 08, 2013

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    Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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    Market OutlookNovember 11, 2013