Market Outlook 16-11-12

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Market OutlookNovember 16, 2012

www.angelbroking.com


Dealers Diary

The Indian market is expected to open flat with a negative bias. The SGX Nifty is

currently trading marginally in the red. The Asian markets are showing a mixed

trend with the Hangseng and Nikkei index trading in the positive zone, while

Shanghai is trading in the negative zone.

The US markets ended modestly lower on Thursday as traders reacted to

disappointing employment data that largely reflected distortions due to the major

disruptions caused by Hurricane Sandy. A report from the Labor Department said

jobless claims jumped to 439,000 in the week ended November 10, as against

expectations of 376,000. However, the data was distorted by the impact of

Hurricane Sandy, with several states in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions

reporting large increases due to the storm. The European markets ended

Thursday's session in the negative territory, as the Eurozone slipped into recession

in the third quarter, despite increases in both Germany and France.

The Indian market fell on Thursday, tracking extremely weak global cues arising

from looming US fiscal cliff and the euro zone's poor economic outlook. There

were concerns on the domestic front too as the failure of the 2G spectrum auction,

which lasted just two days and resulted in an income of just about `9,400crore,

cast doubts on the government's ability to keep its revised fiscal deficit target under

control.

Markets TodayThe trend deciding level for the day is 18,491 / 5,629 levels. If NIFTY trades above

this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally

up to 18,574 18,676 / 5,654 5,677 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below18,491 / 5,629 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to

18,389 18,306 / 5,606 5,581 levels.

SENSEX 18,306 18,389 18,491 18,574 18,676NIFTY 5,581 5,606 5,629 5,654 5,677

News Analysis 2G Spectrum Auction TTMTs global sales up by a modest 5.1% in Oct 2012 2QFY2013 Result Review: Monnet Ispat, Madhucon, CCCL

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (November 13, 2012)

FII 1,807 1,830 (23) 3,677 53,000

MFs 207 399 (192) (1,353) (10,579)

FII Derivatives (November 13, 2012)

Index Futures 238 177 61 10,773

Stock Futures 57 39 19 29,701

Gainers / Losers

Jet Air India 409 9.7 United Brew 788 (9.9)

Sun TV Network 369 7.4 Shree Cement 4,075 (5.8)

Unitech 28 6.4 GMR Infra 19 (4.9)

Strides Arco 885 6.2 Hexaware Tech 107 (4.3)

Reliance Comm 63 4.9 NMDC 170 (4.2)

BSE Sensex (0.9) (162.6) 18,684

Nifty (0.6) (36.0) 5,667

MID CAP (1.0) (66.3) 6,661

SMALL CAP (0.7) (49.4) 7,070

BSE HC (0.7) (52.1) 7,753

BSE PSU (1.7) (124.3) 7,168

BANKEX (1.2) (160.7) 13,187

AUTO (0.4) (41.0) 10,718

METAL (1.5) (153.0) 10,134

OIL & GAS (1.3) (110.4) 8,186

BSE IT (0.8) (45.7) 5,756

Dow Jones (0.2) (28.6) 12,542NASDAQ (0.4) (9.9) 2,837

FTSE (0.8) (44.3) 5,678

Nikkei 1.9 165.0 8,830

Hang Seng (1.6) (333.1) 21,109

Straits Times (1.1) (32.1) 2,946

Shanghai Com (1.2) (25.1) 2,030

INFY 0.4 0.2 $41.9

WIT (0.6) (0.0) $8.1IBN (0.5) (0.2) $38.1

HDB (0.4) (0.2) $37.3

Advances 1,197 542

Declines 1,632 981

Unchanged 96 62

BSE 2,526

NSE 13,234

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2G spectrum auction

The auction of 2G telecom spectrum ended on a disappointing note for the

government on Wednesday, just the second day of the process, with the Centre

earning only`9,407cr and more than half the blocks of airwaves on offer

remaining unsold. The revenue collection is far short of the budget estimate of

`40,000cr, a figure that was subsequently revised to`30,000cr. The auction was

also wrapped up in just two days, in stark contrast to the 3G spectrum auctions of

2010 which went on for more than a month and fetched `67,000cr. Low

participation in 2G auctions was widely expected given high reserve prices of 2G

spectrum as well as other liabilities, like one-time spectrum fee and spectrum

reframing, hanging on telecom companies.

Metro cities of Delhi and Mumbai, which accounted for 40% of the base priceof`14,000cr for 5 MHz of 2G spectrum drew no bids.

There we no bids for Karnataka and Rajasthan circles as well. Final winning price did not increase from the reserve price level in any circle

except for Bihar (9% above reserve price).

Operators have an option of paying 1/3rd of the winning price right now withremaining amount to be deferred at a yearly interest rate of 9.75%.

Only 102 slots out of the 236 on offer could be allocated given high reserveprice and only four circles (Gujarat, UP (E), UP (W) and Bihar) witnessed

demand for 8 slots or more as compared to 8-11 slots on offer across all

circles.

Idea Cellular won spectrum in 8 circles 4 slots each in (1.25MHz a slot)Kolkata, Tamil Nadu, Orissa, Assam, North east, J&K, 5 slots in West Bengal

and 1 slot in Bihar. For this, the total consideration comes down to`2,207cr.

Telenor won spectrum in 6 circles 4 slots each in Maharashtra, Gujarat, AP,UP (W), UP (E) and Bihar. The total consideration for this comes to`4,002cr.

Videocon won spectrum in 6 circles 4 slots each in Gujarat, Haryana, UP (E),UP (W), MP, and Bihar. For this, the total consideration to be paid boils down

to`2,206cr.

Vodafone emerged as a positive surprise and won 1-2 slots across 14 circles -Maharashtra, Kerala, Punjab, Haryana, UP (W), UP (E), MP, West Bengal, HP,

Bihar, Orissa, Assam, North East and J&K (total consideration `2,027cr).

This indicated that Vodafone is strengthening its spectrum footprint, showing

its serious intent towards improving service quality and competitiveness across

circles.

Bharti Airtel bid for just 1 slot in Assam which was an indication that thecompany is not boycotting the auction.

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Exhibit 1:2G (1800MHz) auction results

Delhi 693.1 - - 8 -

Mumbai 678.5 - - 8 -Kolkata 113.7 113.7 0 11 4 4

Maharshtra 262.8 262.8 0 11 1 4 5

Gujarat 224.8 224.8 0 11 4 4 8

A.P 286.9 286.9 0 11 4 4

Karnatka 330.1 - - 11 -

Tamil Nadu 306.1 306.1 0 11 4 4

Kerela 65.3 65.3 0 11 1 1

Punjab 67.3 67.3 0 11 1 1

Haryana 46.5 46.5 0 11 2 4 6

U.P (West) 107.4 107.4 0 11 2 4 4 10

U.P (East) 76.2 76.2 0 11 1 4 4 9

Rajasthan 67.1 - - 11 -

M.P 54.0 54.0 0 11 2 4 6

West Bengal 25.8 25.8 0 11 2 5 7

H.P 7.8 7.8 0 11 1 1

Bihar 42.5 46.4 9.2 11 2 1 4 4 11

Orissa 20.3 20.3 0 11 2 4 6

Assam 8.7 8.7 0 11 1 2 4 7

N.E 8.8 8.8 0 11 2 4 6

J&K 6.3 6.3 0 11 2 4 6

Source: Company, Angel Research

We believe an unsuccessful 2G auction shows that there is limited demand for

spectrum at high prices. We believe the government will likely reduce the reserve

price and would now be forced to find an alternate option for price discovery.

Since the winning price of this auction will be linked to renewal spectrum price and

for one-time spectrum charge, we now see downside risks to potential regulatory

payments for incumbents like Bharti Airtel and Idea Cellular.

TTMTs global sales up by a modest 5.1% in Oct 2012

Tata Motors (TTMT) registered a modest growth of 5.1% yoy (down 2.9% mom) in

global wholesale volumes for October 2012 to 100,660 units. The performance

during the month was impacted largely due to 17.3% yoy (down 4.8% mom)

decline in domestic passenger vehicle sales. The global commercial vehicle sales

however, posted a strong 19% yoy (down 6.1% mom) growth backed by

impressive growth in the light commercial vehicle sales.

The wholesale volumes for Jaguar and Land Rover (JLR) posted a slightly better-

than-expected growth of 6.6% yoy (5.4% mom) to 27,897 units in October 2012.

While Jaguar sales declined 36.2% yoy (up 18.2% mom) primarily due to the

impact of the hurricane, Sandy in the USA; Land Rover sales registered a strong

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growth of 17.4% yoy (3.8% mom) backed by strong growth in Evoque, Freelander

and Defender sales. Land Rover sales benefitted from the start of the third shift at

the Halewood plant which eased the production constraints for Evoque (~9,500

units) and Freelander models. The total volumes for the month were negatively

impacted due to the impending launch of the model year 2013 products, new

Range Rover, XF and XJ, which are slated to begin dispatches from December2012. JLR manufactured only 600 units of Range Rover in October 2012 as

compared to ~2,500 units in October 2011.

On the retail front, JLR reported a healthy growth of 10.1% yoy to 25,176 units.

The growth was driven solely by Land Rover which registered a strong growth of

17.1% yoy to 22,166 units driven by 61.1% and 39.4% yoy growth in Evoque and

Freelander sales. In terms of geography, China was the primary driver of growth

as volumes surged 103.2% yoy; however, US sales declined 18.3% yoy due to the

impact of hurricane, Sandy. Jaguar sales posted a decline of 23.6% yoy to 3,010

units as introduction of the 2013 model year products impacted the sales across

geographies.

We retain our positive view on JLR and expect a 12% volume CAGR over FY2012-

14E driven by Evoque, new product launches (Range Rover, Range Rover Sport, XF

and XJ) and continuous ramp-up in China. Further, favorable market and product-

mix and stable commodity prices will help mitigate raw-material cost pressures.

We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with an SOTP based target price of`319.

Result Review

Monnet Ispat & Energy (CMP:`285/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

Monnet Ispat & Energy reported its 2QFY2013 results. Net sales grew by 19.3%yoy to `547cr mainly due to increase in realizations across most product

categories coupled with higher sales volumes. However, EBITDA increased only

16.7% yoy to `139cr, while EBITDA margin contracted by 64bp yoy to 26.1%

mainly due to higher iron ore costs in our view. Interest expenses and depreciation

expenses grew by 156.6% and 18.7% yoy to `30cr and `22cr, respectively, on

account of capitalization of various projects. Consequently, net profit decreased by

7.3% yoy to`71cr.

FY2012E 2,511 23.8 355 53.0 14.1 5.3 0.7 7.5 1.8

FY2013E 3,303 26.0 428 63.9 14.9 4.4 0.6 4.8 1.2

Madhucon Projects (CMP:`34/ TP: Under review)

For 2QFY2013, Madhucon Projects (MPL) reported a poor set of numbers with

lower-than-expected revenue performance along with high interest cost. This led to

a dismal performance on the earnings front.On the top-line front, MPL posted a

disappointing performance with yoy/qoq decline of 23.4%/5.2% to `319cr, way

below our expectations of`425cr. The EBITDAM improved by 414bp/309bp on a

yoy/qoq basis to 17.1% against our expectation of 11.8%. The interest cost

increased by 5.3% yoy to `33cr and was ahead of our estimate of `26cr. On the

earnings front, the company reported a PAT of`5cr, a decline of 18% on a yoy

basis. This was mainly on account of a lower-than-expected revenue growth,

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Market StrategyNovember 16, 2012


Macro watch

Exhibit 1 :Q uarterly G D P trends

3. 5

5. 7

9 .0

7. 5

8. 5

7. 68. 2

9. 2

8. 0

6. 76. 1

5. 3 5. 5

3. 0

4. 0

5. 0

6. 0

7. 0

8. 0

9. 0

10.0

4Q

FY09

1Q

FY10

2Q

FY10

3Q

FY10

4Q

FY10

1Q

FY11

2Q

FY11

3Q

FY11

4Q

FY11

1Q

FY12

2Q

FY12

3Q

FY12

4Q

FY12

1Q

FY13

(%)

Source: CSO, Ang el Research

Exhibit 2 :IIP trends

Source: M O SPI, Ang el Research

Exhibit 3 :M onthly WPI inflation trends

9. 9 9. 5

7. 76. 9

7. 4 7. 7 7. 5 7. 6 7. 6 7. 5 7. 67. 8

0. 0

2. 0

4. 0

6. 0

8. 0

10.0

12.0

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-

12

M

ar-

12

Apr-

12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

(%)

Source: M O SPI, Ang el Research

Exhibit 4 :M a nufacturing a nd services PM I

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

60.0

Sep

-11

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-1

2

M

ar

-12

Apr

-12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

M fg. PM I Services PM I

Source: Ma rket, Angel Research; N ote: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5 :Expo rts an d impo rts growth trends

(30.0)

(15.0)

0. 0

15.0

30.0

45.0

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-1

2

M

ar-

12

Apr-

12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Exp orts yo y growth Im ports yo y growth( %)

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Exhibit 6 :Key policy rates

8.00

7.00

4.25

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-1

2

M

ar-

12

Apr-

12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

O

ct-12

Repo rate Reverse Repo rate C RR(%)

Source: RBI, Angel Research

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Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis Neutral 160 - 3,106 1,466 1,686 14.8 14.8 7.0 8.1 22.8 19.7 4.8 4.1 22.6 22.5 2.2 1.9

United Phosphorus Buy 110 170 5,084 8,421 9,263 16.5 16.5 15.0 17.0 7.4 6.5 1.1 0.9 15.6 15.5 0.8 0.7

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Amara Raja Batteries Neutral 254 - 4,337 2,911 3,321 16.2 16.2 17.3 19.8 14.7 12.8 4.0 3.2 31.1 27.6 1.4 1.2

Apollo Tyres Buy 81 104 4,105 13,713 15,341 11.2 11.2 12.5 14.8 6.5 5.5 1.2 1.0 20.2 19.9 0.5 0.4

Ashok Leyland Buy 28 31 7,503 14,490 16,606 9.5 9.6 2.2 2.9 12.7 9.9 2.4 2.1 13.6 16.1 0.6 0.5

Automotive Axle# Accumulate 368 430 557 993 1,140 11.6 11.5 36.9 43.0 10.0 8.6 2.0 1.7 21.2 21.3 0.6 0.5Bajaj Auto Neutral 1,836 - 53,116 21,121 23,642 18.4 18.5 108.7 122.6 16.9 15.0 7.0 5.6 46.2 41.6 2.2 1.8

Bharat Forge Buy 266 324 6,188 6,754 7,565 15.5 15.7 18.8 23.2 14.2 11.5 2.5 2.1 18.5 19.7 1.1 0.9

Bosch India* Neutral 8,829 - 27,721 8,776 10,276 16.6 18.0 331.9 417.7 26.6 21.1 5.0 4.1 18.7 19.5 2.8 2.4

CEAT Buy 104 163 355 4,989 5,634 8.2 8.5 27.1 40.8 3.8 2.5 0.5 0.4 13.2 17.2 0.3 0.2

Exide Industries Accumulate 137 155 11,675 6,229 7,200 14.8 15.8 7.2 9.0 19.2 15.3 3.3 2.8 18.5 19.9 1.6 1.3

FAG Bearings* Neutral 1,680 - 2,792 1,489 1,750 16.5 17.5 103.3 126.9 16.3 13.2 3.2 2.6 21.3 21.6 1.7 1.3

Hero Motocorp Neutral 1,836 - 36,670 24,743 27,996 14.8 15.2 118.2 130.4 15.5 14.1 6.7 5.3 48.3 41.9 1.2 1.0

JK Tyre Buy 115 165 471 7,517 8,329 6.6 6.6 37.2 41.3 3.1 2.8 0.5 0.5 18.8 17.8 0.3 0.3

Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate 902 986 55,357 40,035 46,272 11.5 11.6 54.7 62.8 16.5 14.4 3.7 3.1 24.3 23.4 1.2 1.0

Maruti Neutral 1,467 - 42,373 42,019 50,246 7.3 8.6 66.1 94.4 22.2 15.5 2.5 2.2 11.9 15.1 0.8 0.7

Motherson Sumi Neutral 162 - 9,503 24,285 27,317 6.7 7.2 8.1 10.6 20.1 15.3 4.2 3.4 22.9 24.7 0.6 0.5

Subros Buy 30 35 182 1,286 1,479 9.4 9.7 2.6 5.1 11.7 6.0 0.7 0.6 5.6 10.3 0.4 0.4

Tata Motors Buy 272 319 72,558 192,330 219,770 12.8 13.1 37.0 44.5 7.4 6.1 2.0 1.6 31.2 28.9 0.4 0.4

TVS Motor Accumulate 38 45 1,827 7,466 8,290 6.2 6.3 4.8 5.6 8.0 6.9 1.4 1.2 18.2 18.7 0.2 0.2

Capital Goods

ABB* Sell 729 573 15,449 7,796 9,907 4.8 7.8 9.2 22.0 79.2 33.1 5.8 5.1 7.5 16.4 1.9 1.5BGR Energy Neutral 269 - 1,942 3,605 4,542 11.8 10.7 25.1 27.9 10.7 9.7 1.6 1.4 31.1 27.1 1.0 0.9

BHEL Neutral 235 - 57,396 47,801 43,757 18.5 18.0 24.6 21.8 9.5 10.8 2.9 2.4 33.5 24.5 1.1 1.2

Blue Star Buy 191 249 1,720 2,763 2,948 3.2 5.6 3.5 9.1 55.4 21.0 4.1 3.6 7.7 18.4 0.7 0.6

Crompton Greaves Buy 111 145 7,088 12,370 14,277 5.2 7.3 4.0 7.8 27.6 14.2 1.9 1.7 6.9 12.6 0.6 0.6

Jyoti Structures Buy 44 53 358 2,794 3,048 10.6 10.6 9.2 11.7 4.7 3.7 0.5 0.4 10.9 12.5 0.4 0.4

KEC International Buy 63 73 1,620 6,858 7,431 7.1 7.5 8.3 9.8 7.6 6.5 1.3 1.1 25.1 24.0 0.4 0.3

LMW Reduce 2,132 1,992 2,401 2,369 2,727 11.7 11.7 143.4 166.0 14.9 12.8 2.5 2.3 17.4 18.4 0.5 0.4

Thermax Neutral 579 - 6,893 5,514 5,813 9.3 10.2 28.1 31.2 20.6 18.5 3.7 3.2 19.2 18.5 1.1 1.0


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

November 16, 2012

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Cement

ACC Neutral 1,404 - 26,367 11,085 12,415 21.6 21.4 79.4 83.1 17.7 16.9 3.4 3.1 20.1 19.2 2.1 1.8

Ambuja Cements Neutral 207 - 31,909 10,272 11,884 26.4 26.1 11.5 12.9 18.1 16.0 4.0 3.5 20.8 21.1 2.8 2.3

India Cements Neutral 86 - 2,646 4,354 4,929 18.6 18.7 9.8 12.3 8.8 7.0 0.7 0.7 8.6 10.2 1.1 0.9

J K Lakshmi Cements Neutral 138 - 1,684 2,082 2,423 22.9 23.1 20.8 22.5 6.6 6.1 1.2 1.0 18.4 17.4 0.9 1.2

Madras Cements Neutral 215 - 5,127 3,608 3,928 27.6 27.0 15.7 18.3 13.7 11.8 2.2 1.9 16.9 17.0 2.1 1.8

Shree Cements^ Neutral 4,110 - 14,319 5,701 6,210 29.7 28.1 240.7 260.7 17.1 15.8 4.1 3.4 27.1 23.6 2.1 1.7

UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,918 - 52,591 21,368 24,043 22.5 23.5 103.5 121.4 18.5 15.8 3.5 2.9 20.2 20.1 2.5 2.3Construction

Ashoka Buildcon Buy 214 304 1,126 2,034 2,315 22.4 22.4 27.1 31.7 7.9 6.7 1.0 0.9 13.1 13.4 1.8 2.1

Consolidated Co Neutral 13 - 244 2,262 2,522 6.7 7.5 1.5 2.7 8.9 5.0 0.4 0.4 4.4 7.5 0.4 0.4

Hind. Const. Neutral 18 - 1,062 4,239 4,522 9.9 11.2 (2.3) (1.0) (7.8) (18.2) 1.0 1.1 (11.4) (5.6) 1.2 1.2

IRB Infra Buy 128 164 4,256 3,843 4,212 43.1 43.6 16.8 17.8 7.6 7.2 1.3 1.2 18.3 17.0 3.2 3.5

ITNL Buy 189 225 3,663 6,564 7,054 27.2 27.4 26.3 29.0 7.2 6.5 1.1 1.0 14.0 11.8 2.7 2.7

IVRCL Infra Buy 42 51 1,283 5,510 6,722 8.8 9.0 2.5 4.6 16.5 9.1 0.6 0.5 3.4 5.8 0.7 0.7

Jaiprakash Asso. Neutral 92 - 19,745 15,259 17,502 25.7 24.7 4.0 4.8 22.8 19.2 1.8 1.7 8.5 9.3 2.6 2.3

Larsen & Toubro Accumulate 1,603 1,748 98,569 60,556 69,167 11.2 11.6 73.8 85.5 21.7 18.7 3.4 3.0 13.5 14.1 1.8 1.6

Madhucon Proj Buy 34 56 252 2,206 2,502 10.7 10.7 4.6 4.7 7.4 7.3 0.4 0.4 5.2 5.0 0.7 0.7

Nagarjuna Const. Neutral 44 - 1,124 5,947 6,569 8.5 8.6 3.1 4.1 14.1 10.7 0.5 0.4 3.3 4.2 0.6 0.6

Patel Engg. Neutral 76 - 533 3,609 3,836 13.1 13.1 14.0 14.6 5.5 5.3 0.3 0.3 6.3 6.1 1.0 1.0

Punj Lloyd Neutral 52 - 1,735 11,892 13,116 9.0 9.0 1.8 3.2 28.9 16.3 0.6 0.6 2.5 3.7 0.6 0.5

Sadbhav Engg. Buy 138 182 2,082 2,506 3,147 10.3 10.7 7.5 10.4 18.4 13.2 2.3 2.0 13.5 16.0 1.0 0.8

Simplex Infra Buy 196 265 970 6,732 7,837 8.1 8.4 23.4 29.4 8.4 6.7 0.7 0.7 9.2 10.6 0.5 0.5

Financials

Allahabad Bank Neutral 141 - 7,053 6,944 7,884 3.0 3.1 35.5 37.0 4.0 3.8 0.6 0.6 17.2 15.7 - -

Andhra Bank Reduce 106 97 5,943 4,929 5,633 3.1 3.1 23.7 24.5 4.5 4.3 0.7 0.7 16.6 15.3 - -

Axis Bank Buy 1,233 1,476 52,609 15,686 18,687 3.1 3.2 116.8 138.0 10.6 8.9 2.0 1.7 20.0 20.2 - -

Bank of Baroda Accumulate 752 817 29,446 15,436 18,208 2.5 2.6 111.8 137.4 6.7 5.5 1.0 0.9 15.8 17.0 - -

Bank of India Neutral 279 - 16,000 12,491 14,883 2.2 2.4 43.8 63.7 6.4 4.4 0.8 0.7 12.1 15.8 - -

Bank of Maharashtra Neutral 54 - 3,196 3,563 3,876 3.1 3.1 9.7 12.0 5.6 4.5 0.8 0.7 14.6 16.1 - -

Canara Bank Neutral 434 - 19,213 10,905 12,783 2.1 2.2 74.9 85.1 5.8 5.1 0.9 0.8 15.1 15.3 - -

Central Bank Neutral 77 - 5,642 7,095 8,102 2.5 2.7 15.6 21.0 4.9 3.6 0.8 0.7 12.2 14.7 - -


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

November 16, 2012

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Financials

Corporation Bank Accumulate 397 447 5,886 4,886 5,669 2.1 2.2 101.3 101.8 3.9 3.9 0.7 0.6 17.0 15.1 - -

Dena Bank Reduce 113 106 3,945 3,147 3,495 2.8 2.9 24.8 24.4 4.5 4.6 0.8 0.7 18.7 15.9 - -

Federal Bank Neutral 462 - 7,899 2,617 2,968 3.3 3.2 45.9 51.7 10.1 8.9 1.3 1.1 13.1 13.3 - -

HDFC Neutral 789 - 121,515 7,336 8,802 3.5 3.5 31.5 37.8 25.0 20.9 5.0 4.5 34.8 32.1 - -

HDFC Bank Neutral 646 - 152,641 21,696 26,811 4.4 4.5 28.7 36.0 22.5 17.9 4.3 3.6 20.7 22.0 - -

ICICI Bank Buy 1,054 1,270 121,213 22,271 26,690 3.0 3.0 69.2 83.1 15.2 12.7 1.9 1.7 14.2 15.7 - -

IDBI Bank Neutral 107 - 13,634 7,684 9,264 1.8 2.1 15.6 22.0 6.9 4.9 0.8 0.7 10.9 13.9 - -Indian Bank Neutral 177 - 7,588 5,874 6,551 3.2 3.2 40.6 41.8 4.4 4.2 0.7 0.6 18.1 16.4 - -

IOB Neutral 76 - 6,093 7,050 8,313 2.3 2.5 12.3 19.9 6.2 3.8 0.6 0.5 8.8 13.1 - -

J & K Bank Reduce 1,395 1,282 6,761 2,762 2,885 3.6 3.6 226.7 193.0 6.2 7.2 1.4 1.2 24.4 17.7 - -

LIC Housing Finance Buy 248 298 12,526 1,799 2,255 2.3 2.4 20.3 27.3 12.2 9.1 1.9 1.7 16.9 19.7 - -

Oriental Bank Neutral 325 - 9,490 6,277 7,090 2.6 2.7 60.5 65.1 5.4 5.0 0.8 0.7 15.0 14.4 - -

Punjab Natl.Bank Accumulate 763 819 25,883 19,652 22,601 3.2 3.3 135.0 164.3 5.7 4.7 1.0 0.8 16.3 17.3 - -

South Ind.Bank Accumulate 23 25 3,098 1,556 1,750 2.8 2.7 3.5 3.9 6.7 6.0 1.1 1.0 19.1 16.9 - -

St Bk of India Accumulate 2,153 2,353 144,503 63,806 73,435 3.5 3.6 225.7 258.4 9.5 8.3 1.6 1.4 17.7 17.8 - -

Syndicate Bank Neutral 123 - 7,416 6,756 7,783 3.0 3.0 26.3 27.1 4.7 4.5 0.8 0.7 18.3 16.6 - -

UCO Bank Neutral 74 - 4,922 5,411 6,124 2.4 2.5 17.0 16.5 4.4 4.5 0.8 0.8 16.7 14.4 - -

Union Bank Neutral 230 - 12,676 9,912 11,536 2.8 2.9 40.4 46.7 5.7 4.9 0.9 0.8 16.1 16.4 - -

United Bank Accumulate 67 74 2,402 3,572 4,041 2.8 2.9 17.2 22.1 3.9 3.0 0.6 0.5 14.2 16.2 - -

Vijaya Bank Neutral 56 - 2,753 2,490 2,881 2.1 2.2 9.2 11.4 6.1 4.9 0.7 0.7 11.5 13.0 - -

Yes Bank Buy 418 492 14,894 3,270 4,240 2.8 3.0 34.5 42.2 12.1 9.9 2.6 2.1 23.5 23.5 - -

FMCG

Asian Paints Neutral 4,014 - 38,504 11,198 13,184 16.2 16.2 123.7 146.4 32.5 27.4 11.1 8.7 38.1 35.4 3.4 2.9

Britannia Buy 468 584 5,593 5,835 6,824 5.7 6.0 20.7 25.4 22.6 18.4 8.9 6.8 43.1 41.9 0.9 0.7

Colgate Neutral 1,325 - 18,014 3,146 3,573 20.6 21.4 36.4 42.5 36.4 31.2 33.7 28.2 102.0 98.5 5.6 4.9

Dabur India Neutral 129 - 22,431 6,124 7,101 17.0 16.8 4.5 5.2 28.8 24.6 11.9 9.4 43.2 41.5 3.6 3.1

GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 3,006 - 12,641 3,124 3,663 17.1 17.6 104.5 123.8 28.8 24.3 9.0 7.2 34.4 32.8 3.7 3.1

Godrej Consumer Neutral 693 - 23,574 6,355 7,548 18.4 18.6 22.8 27.6 30.4 25.1 7.0 5.7 26.4 26.1 3.9 3.2

HUL Neutral 533 - 115,328 25,350 28,974 13.3 13.5 14.7 17.1 36.2 31.3 28.7 20.2 84.5 75.8 4.3 3.7

ITC Neutral 277 - 217,454 29,409 34,060 35.7 36.1 9.3 10.9 29.7 25.3 9.8 8.2 35.8 35.3 7.3 6.2


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FMCG

Marico Neutral 226 - 14,570 4,840 5,643 13.1 13.1 6.2 7.8 36.6 29.0 7.0 5.7 25.4 22.6 3.1 2.6

Nestle* Neutral 4,730 - 45,608 8,610 10,174 20.9 21.2 114.8 139.8 41.2 33.8 24.9 17.3 71.2 60.3 5.4 4.5

Tata Global Neutral 179 - 11,060 7,207 7,927 9.7 10.0 6.6 7.8 27.1 22.9 2.7 2.6 8.6 9.5 1.4 1.2

IT

HCL Tech^ Accumulate 621 648 43,137 24,214 26,772 19.5 18.1 44.0 48.0 14.1 12.9 3.3 2.8 24.0 22.0 1.7 1.5

Hexaware* Buy 107 135 3,161 1,944 2,159 21.8 21.1 11.4 12.2 9.4 8.7 2.4 2.1 26.4 24.1 1.4 1.2

Infosys Accumulate 2,294 2,573 131,735 39,174 41,580 29.5 30.4 159.2 171.6 14.4 13.4 3.5 3.1 24.1 23.1 2.9 2.6Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 190 202 2,121 1,886 2,032 17.9 17.3 18.7 20.2 10.2 9.4 1.5 1.3 14.9 14.0 0.8 0.6

KPIT Cummins Accumulate 125 132 2,229 2,195 2,317 15.5 15.0 10.7 12.1 11.6 10.3 2.5 2.0 21.0 19.8 1.0 0.9

Mahindra Satyam Accumulate 106 115 12,434 7,597 8,141 20.0 18.8 9.7 10.4 11.0 10.2 3.0 2.3 27.5 22.9 1.3 1.1

Mindtree Accumulate 678 747 2,780 2,324 2,437 20.0 17.7 73.3 74.7 9.3 9.1 2.2 1.8 24.1 19.7 1.0 0.8

Mphasis& Neutral 396 - 8,316 5,700 5,993 18.0 16.9 37.0 37.3 10.7 10.6 1.5 1.3 14.3 12.6 1.0 0.8

NIIT Accumulate 33 36 542 1,048 1,161 9.3 10.9 4.2 6.2 7.8 5.3 0.8 0.8 10.5 14.1 0.3 0.3

Persistent Neutral 478 - 1,911 1,261 1,352 26.4 24.7 48.2 54.0 9.9 8.9 1.9 1.6 19.0 17.9 1.2 1.0

TCS Accumulate 1,296 1,410 253,568 61,053 67,313 28.7 29.1 69.7 76.2 18.6 17.0 6.1 5.0 32.6 29.1 4.0 3.6

Tech Mahindra Accumulate 919 1,070 11,739 6,603 7,150 19.8 18.4 92.9 102.0 9.9 9.0 2.3 1.9 23.7 21.0 1.9 1.7

Wipro Accumulate 361 421 88,974 43,219 47,241 20.0 20.0 26.1 28.1 13.8 12.9 2.7 2.3 19.3 17.9 1.8 1.5

Media

D B Corp Buy 209 259 3,836 1,581 1,784 23.3 25.0 11.6 14.4 18.1 14.5 3.5 3.0 21.0 22.3 2.3 2.0

HT Media Buy 99 113 2,317 2,111 2,272 15.0 15.2 7.4 8.3 13.4 11.9 1.4 1.3 11.3 11.4 0.7 0.6

Jagran Prakashan Buy 101 117 3,191 1,503 1,681 23.1 23.1 6.4 7.3 15.8 13.9 3.9 3.5 25.8 26.5 2.3 2.0

PVR Neutral 238 - 687 625 732 17.4 17.1 13.3 15.6 17.9 15.2 1.9 1.7 13.2 13.8 1.5 1.3

Sun TV Network Neutral 369 - 14,554 1,981 2,239 77.0 76.7 18.6 21.3 19.9 17.3 5.0 4.4 27.1 27.5 6.3 5.4Metals & Mining

Bhushan Steel Neutral 493 - 10,467 11,979 14,584 31.6 31.0 49.2 61.4 10.0 8.0 1.3 1.1 14.1 15.2 2.9 2.4

Coal India Accumulate 348 368 219,809 66,666 70,292 25.7 27.3 24.2 26.6 14.4 13.1 4.3 3.4 33.1 29.1 2.3 2.0

Electrosteel Castings Accumulate 26 29 894 1,984 2,074 10.6 11.6 0.8 2.0 30.9 12.8 0.5 0.2 1.7 4.1 0.7 0.6

Hind. Zinc Accumulate 134 145 56,429 12,446 13,538 52.3 52.9 15.0 16.4 8.9 8.2 1.8 1.5 21.4 19.7 2.7 2.1

Hindalco Neutral 111 - 21,300 79,148 89,258 9.4 9.0 15.0 15.6 7.4 7.2 0.6 0.6 8.8 8.4 0.7 0.6

JSW Steel Neutral 738 - 16,464 39,586 41,459 17.6 17.0 78.7 90.1 9.4 8.2 0.9 0.8 10.2 10.7 0.8 0.8

MOIL Accumulate 244 261 4,107 941 1,019 47.3 48.3 25.8 28.1 9.5 8.7 1.5 1.3 16.7 16.2 2.0 1.7

Monnet Ispat Buy 286 379 1,837 2,511 3,303 23.8 26.0 46.3 57.3 6.2 5.0 0.7 0.6 12.4 13.7 1.7 1.2


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Metals & Mining

Nalco Neutral 45 - 11,649 6,898 7,841 9.9 14.7 2.0 3.2 22.8 14.2 1.0 1.0 4.3 6.8 1.2 1.1

NMDC Accumulate 170 198 67,361 11,209 12,525 78.4 78.3 18.5 20.6 9.2 8.3 2.2 1.9 27.0 24.6 4.3 3.7

SAIL Neutral 79 - 32,734 47,252 60,351 14.2 14.8 9.6 11.7 8.3 6.8 0.8 0.7 9.4 10.6 1.2 1.0

Sesa Goa Accumulate 170 183 14,809 4,551 6,640 32.8 34.4 33.7 39.3 5.1 4.3 0.9 0.7 18.3 18.3 4.0 2.7

Sterlite Inds Accumulate 99 110 33,203 43,185 45,442 23.3 23.7 16.8 17.9 5.9 5.5 0.7 0.6 11.6 11.2 0.8 0.7

Tata Steel Buy 376 463 36,493 145,725 154,108 8.3 9.5 22.0 44.5 17.1 8.4 0.8 0.8 4.9 9.3 0.5 0.5

Sarda Accumulate 144 153 516 1,442 1,494 17.6 17.3 27.2 28.7 5.3 5.0 0.6 0.5 11.5 11.0 0.7 0.7Prakash Industries Buy 48 73 645 2,694 2,906 14.6 16.6 16.4 20.8 2.9 2.3 0.3 0.3 11.4 12.8 0.5 0.3

Godawari Power andIspat

Buy 117 143 370 2,342 2,470 13.7 15.3 27.7 33.8 4.2 3.5 0.4 0.4 10.9 11.4 0.6 0.6

Oil & Gas

Cairn India Buy 337 382 64,435 17,567 17,643 76.2 72.3 61.1 56.8 5.5 5.9 1.1 1.0 22.0 17.5 2.8 2.4

GAIL Neutral 353 - 44,803 46,652 54,142 15.7 15.7 34.0 35.3 10.4 10.0 1.8 1.6 18.5 16.8 0.7 0.5

ONGC Buy 254 312 216,882 147,139 154,821 33.9 33.7 30.7 32.3 8.3 7.9 1.4 1.3 18.3 17.2 1.2 1.1

Reliance Industries Neutral 785 - 256,954 362,700 380,031 7.9 8.0 60.0 63.3 13.1 12.4 1.3 1.2 11.1 10.6 0.7 0.7

Gujarat Gas* Neutral 299 - 3,835 3,128 3,707 13.2 11.7 22.8 23.5 13.1 12.7 3.9 3.5 33.2 29.2 1.1 0.9

Indraprastha Gas Neutral 261 - 3,655 3,213 3,643 23.3 23.5 24.3 25.7 10.7 10.2 2.5 2.1 25.0 22.1 1.2 1.1

Petronet LNG Accumulate 160 183 12,019 30,077 33,570 6.6 6.3 15.1 15.3 10.6 10.5 2.7 2.2 28.4 23.1 0.5 0.4

Gujarat State PetronetLtd.

Neutral 73 - 4,082 1,079 1,034 91.8 91.9 8.8 8.4 8.3 8.6 1.4 1.2 17.9 15.0 3.6 3.7

Pharmaceuticals

Alembic Pharma Buy 68 91 1,281 1,624 1,855 14.2 15.6 6.6 9.1 10.3 7.5 2.6 2.0 27.9 29.9 0.9 0.8

Aurobindo Pharma Neutral 174 - 5,054 5,243 5,767 14.6 14.6 11.8 12.6 14.7 13.8 1.8 1.6 17.9 16.4 1.5 1.3

Aventis* Neutral 2,146 - 4,942 1,482 1,682 15.5 15.5 95.1 104.4 22.6 20.6 4.0 3.1 18.6 17.0 3.2 2.7

Cadila Healthcare Accumulate 827 926 16,939 6,148 7,386 18.6 19.6 32.7 44.8 25.3 18.5 5.6 4.5 23.7 26.6 3.2 2.6

Cipla Accumulate 389 419 31,246 8,151 9,130 25.0 24.0 19.5 20.9 20.0 18.6 3.5 3.0 18.8 17.2 3.7 3.2

Dr Reddy's Accumulate 1,726 1,859 29,298 10,696 11,662 20.7 21.0 83.7 92.9 20.6 18.6 4.2 3.6 22.4 20.8 3.1 2.7

Dishman Pharma Buy 118 145 949 1,280 1,536 20.2 20.2 10.4 14.5 11.3 8.1 0.9 0.9 8.7 11.0 1.4 1.2

GSK Pharma* Neutral 1,977 - 16,749 2,651 2,993 31.7 31.2 76.0 82.4 26.0 24.0 7.5 6.7 20.1 26.3 5.6 4.9

Indoco Remedies Buy 70 89 640 685 837 15.2 15.2 7.4 8.9 9.4 7.8 1.4 1.2 16.4 17.0 1.1 0.9

Ipca labs Accumulate 429 485 5,410 2,850 3,474 21.0 21.0 29.9 37.3 14.4 11.5 3.4 2.7 26.7 26.4 2.1 1.7

Lupin Accumulate 577 652 25,814 8,426 10,082 19.7 20.0 26.3 31.3 21.9 18.4 5.1 4.1 26.0 24.7 3.2 2.7

Orchid Chemicals Neutral 101 - 712 1,667 1,835 13.9 13.9 11.4 13.3 8.9 7.6 0.6 0.5 6.6 7.3 0.9 0.8


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Pharmaceuticals

Ranbaxy* Neutral 527 - 22,264 12,046 11,980 18.0 15.8 31.3 29.8 16.8 17.7 5.7 4.6 39.1 28.9 1.9 1.8

Sun Pharma Neutral 683 - 70,642 9,752 12,134 41.6 41.6 26.0 28.2 26.3 24.2 4.9 4.2 20.3 18.8 6.6 5.1

Power

CESC Neutral 278 - 3,468 5,218 5,644 24.2 23.8 44.6 47.6 6.2 5.8 0.7 0.6 11.0 10.6 1.4 1.5

GIPCL Accumulate 68 78 1,032 1,523 1,568 30.3 30.3 5.4 11.5 12.6 5.9 0.7 0.6 5.6 11.3 1.2 1.0

NTPC Neutral 167 - 137,534 74,111 85,789 22.7 23.1 12.1 13.7 13.8 12.1 1.7 1.5 12.6 13.2 2.5 2.3

Real EstateAnant Raj Sell 97 78 2,851 657 875 52.0 56.1 8.4 12.7 11.5 7.6 0.7 0.7 6.3 8.9 5.6 4.2

DLF Neutral 209 - 35,552 9,878 12,033 44.7 46.1 9.6 13.4 21.9 15.6 1.4 1.3 6.4 8.7 6.0 4.9

HDIL Accumulate 106 115 4,454 2,441 3,344 55.1 48.2 22.7 26.6 4.7 4.0 0.4 0.4 8.8 9.4 3.7 2.8

MLIFE Neutral 413 - 1,686 813 901 26.2 26.6 32.0 37.1 12.9 11.2 1.3 1.2 10.4 11.0 2.4 2.1

Telecom

Bharti Airtel Neutral 291 - 110,508 79,842 86,098 31.2 32.0 9.1 12.9 32.0 22.6 2.1 1.9 6.5 8.4 2.0 1.8

Idea Cellular Neutral 95 - 31,471 22,234 24,161 26.9 27.7 3.3 4.9 28.7 19.3 2.2 2.0 7.7 10.3 1.8 1.6

Rcom Neutral 63 - 13,096 20,650 20,935 32.3 33.0 4.2 5.8 15.0 11.0 0.4 0.3 2.3 3.1 2.2 2.1

zOthers

Abbott India Neutral 1,454 - 3,090 1,602 1,833 10.4 11.8 54.7 71.7 26.6 20.3 5.0 4.3 20.0 22.7 1.7 1.5

Bajaj Electricals Accumulate 199 217 1,988 3,497 3,968 6.6 7.6 9.8 15.5 20.3 12.9 2.6 2.2 12.7 17.4 0.6 0.5

Cera Sanitaryware Neutral 393 - 497 427 528 15.7 14.6 30.0 34.0 13.1 11.6 2.9 2.3 24.6 22.5 1.3 1.1

Cravatex Buy 433 545 112 272 308 7.2 7.3 37.5 45.4 11.5 9.5 2.7 2.2 23.7 22.7 0.5 0.5

CRISIL Neutral 923 - 6,481 982 1,136 34.3 34.3 34.3 40.0 26.9 23.1 12.2 9.7 50.9 46.9 6.3 5.3

Finolex Cables Accumulate 51 61 785 2,304 2,552 9.9 9.1 8.2 10.1 6.3 5.1 0.9 0.8 13.7 14.7 0.3 0.3

Force Motors Accumulate 495 537 645 2,318 2,700 5.0 5.7 45.0 67.0 11.0 7.4 0.6 0.5 5.0 7.0 0.2 0.2Goodyear India Neutral 315 - 726 1,543 1,654 6.5 7.3 24.8 31.1 12.7 10.1 2.1 1.8 17.1 19.0 0.3 0.2

Disa India Buy 2,730 3,353 412 176 203 22.7 22.6 182.5 209.6 15.0 13.0 7.8 6.1 51.8 47.1 2.2 1.8

Greenply Industries Accumulate 290 309 699 1,925 2,235 10.6 10.9 29.6 44.1 9.8 6.6 1.6 1.3 16.8 21.0 0.6 0.5

Hitachi Neutral 128 - 294 868 977 3.9 6.6 2.7 10.9 46.6 11.8 1.7 1.5 3.7 13.6 0.4 0.4

Honeywell Automation* Neutral 2,800 - 2,475 1,745 1,993 4.0 5.3 59.5 90.4 47.1 31.0 3.6 3.1 8.1 11.3 1.3 1.1

Styrolution ABS India* Accumulate 650 744 1,143 1,059 1,116 8.5 9.5 36.0 42.0 18.1 15.5 2.6 2.3 15.4 16.0 1.1 1.0

ITD Cementation Neutral 254 - 292 1,323 1,455 12.4 12.4 23.2 27.7 10.9 9.2 0.7 0.7 6.8 7.6 0.7 0.6

Jyothy Laboratories Neutral 178 - 2,869 1,228 1,443 9.0 10.9 3.9 6.4 45.8 27.9 4.5 4.2 10.1 15.6 2.8 2.4

MCX Reduce 1,565 1,440 7,983 553 624 65.3 66.3 62.5 72.0 25.1 21.7 6.9 6.0 27.5 27.4 11.7 9.9

MRF Buy 10,155 12,884 4,307 11,804 12,727 10.4 10.5 1,289.9 1,431.3 7.9 7.1 1.5 1.3 21.3 19.4 0.5 0.4


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zOthers

Page Industries Accumulate 3,321 3,602 3,704 836 1,023 20.2 20.6 105.6 133.4 31.5 24.9 16.0 11.3 59.3 53.2 4.5 3.7

Relaxo Footwears Buy 826 933 991 1,019 1,208 11.0 12.5 47.0 66.7 17.6 12.4 4.4 3.3 28.2 30.1 1.1 0.9

Sintex Industries Buy 67 79 1,829 4,751 5,189 16.3 16.6 13.6 15.8 4.9 4.3 0.7 0.6 12.9 13.2 0.7 0.6

Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 307 366 288 1,043 1,149 12.3 12.9 65.7 73.3 4.7 4.2 0.9 0.8 21.0 19.6 0.5 0.5

S. Kumars Nationwide Neutral 14 - 403 7,134 7,985 19.7 19.4 12.2 14.1 1.1 1.0 0.1 0.1 11.3 11.5 0.6 0.6

SpiceJet Buy 36 43 1,744 5,720 6,599 5.3 6.8 3.6 5.4 10.0 6.7 14.5 4.6 - - 0.4 0.3

TAJ GVK Buy 73 108 457 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 9.2 8.0 1.2 1.1 13.9 14.4 1.8 1.6Tata Sponge Iron Buy 316 384 487 750 803 18.6 18.4 65.4 69.1 4.8 4.6 0.8 0.7 16.5 15.3 0.3 0.2

TVS Srichakra Buy 290 335 222 1,476 1,643 7.0 8.2 32.6 55.9 8.9 5.2 1.4 1.2 16.8 24.8 0.4 0.3

United Spirits Neutral 1,851 - 24,206 10,289 11,421 12.8 12.8 26.0 45.3 71.2 40.9 3.2 3.0 5.8 7.6 2.7 2.4

Vesuvius India Neutral 350 - 710 560 611 16.1 17.0 24.7 28.8 14.2 12.2 2.1 1.9 15.8 16.2 1.1 1.0

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on November 15, 2012


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Documents

Market Outlook 16-11-12