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***Mapping Aff***


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Advantage (_)Methane Release

1. Risk of drilling accident will only increase with expanded deep-sea drilling

mapping ocean floor key to detect potential hydrate deposits

Hovland & Gudmestad 01Professor emeritus at the University of Bergen, and Professor of

Marine technology at the University of Stavanger. [Potential influences of gas hydrates on seabeadinstallations, Natural gas hydrates: occurrence, distribution, and detection (2001), pp 307-308] // AG

Extensive petroleum exploration and development efforts are presently occurring in deep waters

where gas hydrates can form. The chances of encountering gas hydrates at the sea floor and within

the upper sedimentary layers will only increase as the petroleum industry moves further into

deeper waters: off Brasil, in the Gulf of Mexico, off NE Europe, West Africa, and Japan. Petroleumexploration and production involves operations that significantly alter ambient sub-surface

conditions. Of particular concern in relation to the occurrence of gas hydrates are disruptions

caused by vibrations and pressure gradients as well as temperature increases. Because of this, the

presence of gas hydrates may be considered to represent a geohazard for offshore hydrocarbon

exploration and exploitation. Also the concern for initiating the development of gas hydrates on or

around wellheads and other structures is a major concern.

Although the offshore hydrocarbon industry has experienced numerous setbacks and mishaps because ofgas hydrates forming inside production wells and flowlines and topside piping (Gjertsen et al., 1997;Austvik et al., 1997), hydrates. Even so, this paper aims at providing a review of the current knowledgeand particularly focusing the aspects of concern to the petroleum industry concerning in-situ gas hydrates.

At water depths and sediment depths within the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ), gas hydrates formwhen light hydrocarbons (methane, ethane, propane, butane), or other non-hydrocarbon gases (includingC02 and H2S) common in hydrocarbon-bearing regions are present in adequate concentrations. Ofconcern to the industry is that gas hydrates may form rapidly when appropriate gases leak into the

sediments or water column from below. Furthermore, gas hydrates may dissociate rapidly when

disturbed by heating or de-pressurization

The ideal assessment of a potential drilling site or deepwater construction site, including potential

pipeline routes, therefore, has to include an evaluation of the possible presence and formation of gas

hydrates.However, as many oil companies and academic institutions have already experienced, such anassessment is very difficult to perform, even after having employed dedicated drilling and sediment

sampling(Hovland et al., 1999). In such an assessment it is clear that all the available indicators ofgas hydrate formation and dissociation in the environment needs to be used, including indirect

means. These include interpretation of seismic, sonar, and topographic features, as well as direct

ground-truthing means, such as visual observation and seabed sampling (MacDonald et al., 1994;Borowski and Paull, 1997; Paull, 1997; Hovland et al., 1997; Dillon et al., 1998; Bouriak et al., 1999;

Clennell et al., 1999; Orange et al., 1999; Prior and Hooper, 1999; Suess et al., 1999; Torres et al., 1999;Vogt et al., 1999; Xu and Ruppel, 1999). An assessment of potential gas hydrates should also go hand-in-hand with laboratory work and a theoretical consideration and analysis (Clennell et al., 1999; Austvik etal., 2000).


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2. Mapping hydrates key to prevent well blow outs and methane release

Weitemeyer et al 11Ph.D. in Earth Science from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC SanDiego. [A marine electromagnetic survey to detect gas hydrate at Hydrate Ridge, Oregon, K. A.Weitemeyer, S. Constable, and A. M. Trehu, GeophysicsJournal International, Volume 187, 2011, pp45-62, accessed from Emory] // AG

Natural gas hydrate, a type of clathrate, is an ice-like solid that consists of a gas molecule, typicallymethane, encaged by a water lattice (Sloan 1990). Methane hydrates are found worldwide in marine andpermafrost regions where the correct thermobaric conditions exist and sufficient water and gas molecules

are available (Sloan 1990; Kvenvolden 2003). The quantity and distribution of gas hydrate in

sediments is important because of its potential as an energy resource (Moridis & Sloan 2007) and asa trigger for slope instability(Mienert et al. 2005; Nixon & Grozic 2007; Paull et al. 2007; Sultan et al.2004; Smith et al. 2004; Field & Barber 1993), which may threaten seafloor infrastructure(Kvenvolden 2000; Hovland & Gudmestad 2001). As more deep drilling and production operations arecarried out within the thermodynamic stability conditions for hydrate (Dawe & Thomas 2007) theconsequences of drilling into hydrate sediments will become a bigger threat, since drilling and

production fluids can cause hydrate to dissociate and cause wells to blow out (Ostergaard et al.2000).

Seismic data alone are often insufficient for accurately resolving the amount of gas hydrate in

sediments. One seismic signature often associated with gas hydrate occurrence is a bottom

simulating reflector (BSR), which typically marks the phase change of solid hydrate above and free

gas below the BSR (Shipley et al. 1979). However, the BSR may not indicate the existence of

hydrate , as was observed on DSDP Leg 84 site 496 and site 596 (Sloan 1990, p. 424; Sloan & Koh

2007, p. 575). In fact, it requires very little gas to form a strong seismic reflector (Domenico 1977). Othertypes of seismic signatures have been noted at Blake Ridge by Hornback et al. (2003) and Gorman et al.(2002), such as a fossil BSR, seismic blanking and seismic bright spots. While seismic methods are often

able to detect the lower stratigraphic bound of hydrate, the diffuse upper bound is not well imaged andthere is often no seismic reflectivity signature from within the hydrate region.

Hydrate is electrically resistive compared to the surrounding water saturated sediments(Collett&Ladd 2000), which provides a target for marine electromagnetic (EM) methods. MarineEM methods can be used to image the bulk resistivity structure of the subsurface and are able to

augment seismic data to provide valuable information about gas hydrate distribution in the marine

environment(Edwards 1997; Yuan & Edwards 2000).

3. Rapid methane release causes extinctiondistinct from slow release which is

oxidizedRyskin 03Department of Chemical Engineering at Northwestern University. [Methane-drivenoceanic eruptions and mass extinctions, Gregory Ryskin, Geology, Volume 31, Number 9, September2003, p742, accessed from Emory] // AG

OCEANIC ERUPTION AS A CAUSE OF MASS EXTINCTION

The consequences of a methane-driven oceanic eruption for marine and terrestrial life are likely to

be catastrophic. Figuratively speaking, the erupting region boils over, ejecting a large amount of


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methane and other gases(e.g., CO2, H2S) into the atmosphere, and flooding large areas of land.Whereas pure methane is lighter than air, methane loaded with water droplets is much heavier, and thusspreads over the land, mixing with air in the process (and losing water as rain). The airmethane mixture isexplosive at methane concentrations between 5% and 15%; as such mixtures form in different locationsnear the ground and are ignited by lightning, explosions2 and conflagrations destroy most of the

terrestrial life, and also produce great amounts of smoke and of carbon dioxide.Firestorms carrysmoke and dust into the upper atmosphere, where they may remain for several years(Turco et al.,

1991); the resulting darkness and global cooling may provide an additional kill mechanism.Conversely, carbon dioxide and the remaining methane create the greenhouse effect, which may lead toglobal warming. The outcome of the competition between the cooling and the warming tendencies isdifficult to predict (Turco et al., 1991; Pierrehumbert, 2002).

Upon release of a significant portion of the dissolved methane, the ocean settles down, and the

entire sequence of events (i.e., development of anoxia, accumulation of dissolved methane, the

metastable state, eruption) begins anew. No external cause is required to bring about a methane-driveneruptionits mechanism is self-contained, and implies that eruptions are likely to occur repeatedly at thesame location.

Because methane is isotopically light, its fast release must result in a negative carbon isotopeexcursion in the geological record. Knowing the magnitude of the excursion, one can estimate theamount of methane that could have produced it. Such calculations (prompted by the methane-hydrate-dissociation model, but equally applicable here) have been performed for several global events in thegeological record; the results range from ;1018 to 1019 g of released methane (e.g., Katz et al., 1999;Kennedy et al., 2001; de Wit et al., 2002). These are very large amounts: the total carbon content oftodays terrestrial biomass is ;2 3 1018 g. Nevertheless, relatively small regions of the deep ocean couldcontain such amounts of dissolved methane; e.g., the Black Sea alone (volume ;0.4 3 1023 of the oceantotal; maximum depth only 2.2 km) could hold, at saturation, ;0.5 3 1018 g. A similar region of the deepocean could contain much more (the amount grows quadratically with depth3). Released in a geologicalinstant(weeks, perhaps), 1018 to 1019 g of methane could destroy the terrestrial life almost entirely.Combustion and explosion of0.75 3 1019 g of methane would liberate energy equivalent to 108 Mtof TNT, ;10,000 times greater than the worlds stockpile of nuclear weapons , implicated in the

nuclearwinter scenario (Turco et al., 1991).

4. Extinction is empirically proven from hydratesthe Permian extinction

Benton & Twitchett 03Department of Earth Sciences at the University of Bristol. [How to kill(almost) all life: the end-Permian extinction event, Michael J. Benton and Richard J. Twitchett, Trendsin Ecology and Evolution, Volume 13, Number 7, July 2003, pp 362, accessed through Emory] // AG

Not only must this new source of 12C be identified, but that source must also be capable of overwhelmingnormal atmospheric feedback systems. The only option so far identified is the methane released fromgas hydrates (Box 3), an idea that has been accepted with alacrity[21,23,24,31].

The assumption is that initial global warmingat the PTr boundary, triggered by the huge Siberianeruptions, melted frozen gas hydrate bodies, and massive volumes of methane rich in 12C rose to

the surface of the oceans in huge bubbles. This vast input of methane into the atmosphere caused

more warming, which could have melted further gas hydrate reservoirs. The process continued in apositive feedback spiral that has been termed the runaway greenhouse phenomenon. Somesort of


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threshold wasprobably reached, which was beyond where the natural systems that normally reducecarbon dioxide levels could operate effectively. The system spiralled out of control, leading to the

biggest crash in the history of life.

5. US federal commitment key to mapping and developmentneed to overcome fearfrom Deepwater spill

Boswell 11PhD in Geology from West Virginia University and Technology Manger for MethaneHydrates at the National Energy Technology Laboratory for the DOE. [Paper #1-11 METHANEHYDRATES, Ray Boswell, Prepared for the Resource and Supply Task Group, Working Document ofthe North American Resource Development Study, 2011, pp 19-20, accessed through Emory] // AG

V Conclusions and Summary

Though significant challenges remain in realizing commercial production from gas hydrate-bearingformations, recent gas hydrate research accomplishments have been significant. We know much moreabout the geophysical response, petrophysical properties, and potential productivity of gas hydrate

reservoirs than we did just a few years ago. The 2007/2008 Mallik test results, while not yet public in fulldetail, clearly indicate technically-viable productivity and were sufficient to enable Japan to move aheadwith plans for production testing in the marine environment. In the U.S., there is astrong industry, state,and federal interest in pursuing the needed long-term production tests in Alaska, with separate testsof depressurization and CO2-CH4 exchange poised for execution. For the Gulf of Mexico, we have thefirst estimates of the potentially recoverable portion of the total in-place resource, and drilling

conducted in 2009 confirmed the expected existence of high-concentration gas hydrate at two of

three sites drilled. The Alaska and Gulf of Mexico drilling results also appear to validate current

approaches to gas hydrate exploration, indicating that existing concepts and approaches can beeffectively employed. The maturation of numerical simulators, their ability to now more rigorouslyinclude natural variation in reservoir properties, and the incorporation of field data into production

scenarios has yielded increasingly rigorous and encouraging production predictions. Spurred byinternational expeditions, there is also a new appreciation of the potential abundance of concentrated gashydrate in fractured mud occurrences and initial efforts to assess these accumulations are underway.Lastly, the first steps toward integrating gas hydrate science into numerical models of global

carbon cycling and the global climate are in progress.

With respect to U.S. gas hydrate resources, it is possible that repercussions of the April 2010

Deepwater Horizon tragedy will impact the presently anticipated pace of research and development

due to increased costs and complexity of permitting and conductance of deepwater operations, aswell as other factors. Setting those possibilities aside, a near-term focus for domestic marine gashydrate R&D will be the further characterization of recently confirmed Gulf of Mexico reservoirs

and associated seals through pressure-coring operations.These sites will also likely be the focus ofexpanded geochemical and geophysical investigations to further refine the tools applicable to pre-drillassessment and characterization of gas hydrate prospects. A program of marine production testing willultimately be required. Marine geophysical programs to identify high potential regions within the USOCS outside the Gulf of Mexico will also be needed. The most promising areas will then requireevaluation via multi-well drilling, logging, and coring expeditions.

Additional long-term testing programs, building upon the findings of the initial tests, extending

findings to other geologic settings, and/or refining stimulation methods and well design, will likely


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be needed. A final multi-well pilot test will also likely be needed, and could occur in Alaska before 2020.Assuming success of near-term efforts in Alaska, a production test program could be envisioned for

the Gulf of Mexico within the decade, with a second test required shortly after, resulting in

improved assessment of the possible scale of marine hydrate technical and commercial

recoverability by 2025. Such marine testing programs will require a strong national commitment.


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Advantage (_)Peak Oil

1. Natural gas reserves will soon be depleted1% of US hydrate reserves will meet

our energy demands for the next eight decades.

Naidoo et al. 11[Amir H. Mohammadi, Dominique Richon - MINES ParisTech, CEP/TEPCentre nergtique et Procds;Paramespri Naidoo, Deresh Ramjugernath - Thermodynamics Research Unit, School of Chemical Engineering, University of KwaZulu-Natal;Application of gas hydrate formation in separation processes: A review of experimental studies, 10/14/11, Elsevier]

Natural reserves of gas hydrates in the earth can be used as a gas/natural gas supply by providing

the increasing amounts of energy needed by the world economy. The estimated amount of methane

in situ gas reserves is approximately 10^16 cubic meters [36,37]. Furthermore, there are estimations

showing that there are more organic carbon reserves present globally as methane hydrates than all

other forms of fossil fuels [38]. It is currently believed that if only about 1% of the estimated

reserves of methane from methane hydrate reserves are recovered, it may be enough for the United

States to satisfy its energy demands for the next eight decades [39]. There are generally three

methods of methane production form these hydrate reserves: 1. Pressure reduction in the reservoirs

to conditions below the gas hydrate equilibrium pressure; 2. Increasing the temperature of thereservoir by heating up to a temperature above that needed for equilibrium(or hydrate dissociationtemperature); 3. Addition of alternate gases or inhibitors such as CO2 or methanol which wouldreplace methane within the hydrate structures or change the stability conditions of the

corresponding hydrates [40]. Although methane/natural gas has not yet been produced from gas hydratereserves on a commercial scale and also interestingly it has not been included in the EPPA model inMITEIs Future of Natural Gas report, it is still considered as a promising approach which shouldbegin to be exploited within the next 15 years, mainlydue to the fact that conventional natural gasreservoirs are being depleted very rapidly [41]. Detailed experimental and theoretical studies(e.g.thermodynamic and kinetic models, effects of the physical parameters on the gas hydrate reservoirs,exploitation of the reserves, methods of gas recovery, economical study of the process of extraction of

methane/natural gas from gas hydrate reserves) have been well-established in the literature[3886].

2. Mapping the ocean floor advances hydrate energy development

Consortium for Ocean Leadership 14a Washington, DC-based nonprofit organization thatrepresents more than 100 of the leading public and private ocean research and education institutions,aquaria and industry with the mission to advance research, education and sound ocean policy.[Development of a Scientific Plan for a Methane Hydrate-Focused Marine Drilling, Logging and CoringProgram, Office of Fossil Energy, Prepared for the US DOE, February 2014, pp 14,http://www.netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/Oil-Gas/methane%20hydrates/fe0010195-final-report.pdf ] // AG

Of the scientific drilling programs considered in this Science Plan, the community concluded that the first priority would be

an expedition targeting the methane hydrate reservoirs in the Gulf of Mexico. The second priority would be a

drilling program along the U.S. Atlantic margin. It was also concluded that critical new developments in drilling and measurement

technologies are needed to advancethe goals and contributions of methane hydrate related scienti fic drilling opportunities. The use ofspecialty drilling systems and technologies, such as pressure core systems, downhole measurement tools, borehole instrumentation, advanced wireline logging, and

loggingwhiledrilling, should be continued and expanded. In the end, the appreciation of the contributions scientific drilling makes to our understanding

of methane hydrates in nature and as potential energy resource, geohazard, or contributor to global climate change

depends on the ability of the research communityto communicate the knowledge to the public.


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3. Peak oil has been briefly placed on the backburner. However, if we do not use

this time wisely we will face a supply crunch and social collapse

Foss 12 - Co-editor of The Automatic Earth [Nicole Foss,The Guardian Is Ignoring The Critical

Paradox Of Peak Oil,The Automatic Earth | Jul. 9, 2012, 1:56 PM pg:http://theautomaticearth.org/Energy/peak-oil-a-dialogue-with-george-monbiot.html#ixzz20HZlJfhx

I sent George a short response to his article, by way of opening a dialogue:

What we are facing is a demand and price collapse that will render unconventional supplies

uneconomic. Natural gas is leading the way over the next few years . The high cost and low EROEI are fatal flaws.

And received this reply:

If there's a collapse in demand, peak oil is not an issue, right? If there's a resurgence of demand, unconventionals become economic again. As forEROEI being a constraint, try telling that to the tar sands producers in Alberta.

With best wishes,

George

The debate continues. Here is my next installment:

A demand collapse will certainly put peak oil on the backburnerfor a number of years. The next few years will beremembered forfinancial crisis as we move into what will be at least as bad as the Great Depression (and very likely worse, since the bubble was

much larger this time). Peak oil will not have gone away, however.

We have used the cheap and accessible oil(and other fossil fuels) and what remains will be exceptionally,

and increasingly, expensive in both financial and energy terms. Predictable consequences will

follow from this, but in a complex interaction with many other factors, notably the context of the huge credit bubble

bursting . This amounts to crashing the operating system. For a while, resource constraints will be

relieved due to economic seizure(i.e. the collapse of both the money supply and the velocity of

money).

During the period of financial crisis, deflation and deleveraging, weak demand will buy us some time, but at the cost of

setting us up for a supply crunch later . The period of sharply falling prices will kill investment in

the energy sector, because the cost of production will fall less quickly than prices, meaning margins

will be squeezed. Both physical and financial risks will be much higher. A lack of economic visibility will be

anathema to what are inherently long term projects.

In addition, trade collapsesduring periods of economic depression, as for instance letters of credit become impossible to

obtain, and the lack offundsfor maintenance compromises the integrity ofdistribution infrastructure.

Infrastructure mayalso be deliberately targeted during the inevitable upheaval .All of these factorsact

to reduce supply, and would be difficult, or impossible, to reverse quicklyif demand were to rise.

When supply and demand become tight, what transpires is not a simple price spike, but an exaggerated

boom and bust dynamic.This has been underway since 2005/06. The first full cycle unfolded from 2005/06 to 2008. The secondbegan in 2008/09 and will probably end with a price bottom relatively early in this depression with a resurgence of military demand, given thatoil is liquid hegemonic power.

That should feed intothe third cycle, which should send prices sharply higher in real terms, if not to a new high in nominal terms. Thisprice volatility, against a backdrop of severe economic contraction, upheaval and fear is leading towards a profound societal change, most likely

a significant period of involuntary loss of socioeconomic complexity .
http://www.businessinsider.com/author/nicole-fosshttp://www.businessinsider.com/author/nicole-fosshttp://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/http://theautomaticearth.org/Energy/peak-oil-a-dialogue-with-george-monbiot.html#ixzz20HZlJfhxhttp://www.businessinsider.com/a-coming-demand-collapse-will-destroy-the-shale-energy-bull-case-2012-7http://www.businessinsider.com/a-coming-demand-collapse-will-destroy-the-shale-energy-bull-case-2012-7http://www.businessinsider.com/a-coming-demand-collapse-will-destroy-the-shale-energy-bull-case-2012-7http://www.businessinsider.com/a-coming-demand-collapse-will-destroy-the-shale-energy-bull-case-2012-7http://www.businessinsider.com/a-coming-demand-collapse-will-destroy-the-shale-energy-bull-case-2012-7http://www.businessinsider.com/a-coming-demand-collapse-will-destroy-the-shale-energy-bull-case-2012-7http://theautomaticearth.org/Energy/peak-oil-a-dialogue-with-george-monbiot.html#ixzz20HZlJfhxhttp://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/http://www.businessinsider.com/author/nicole-foss


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You mention the tar sands, and they are indeed an interesting case - an arbitrage between cheap natural gas and expensive syncrude that cancontinue while the price disparity is maintained. They are able to make money, even though they are not producing much net energy.Unfortunately for the tar sands producers, the price disparity is set to reverse.

The hype surrounding shale gas has crashed the price to the point where it is on the verge of putting producers out of business. Natural gas inNorth America appears to have bottomed, while the perception of glut in unconventional oil, combined with weak demand and a lack ofappropriate infrastructure for internal North American sources, is set to undermine oil prices considerably.

Tar sands projects will be under acute threat under those circumstances - not imminently, but over the next five years or so. Once one cannotmake money from some combination of artificial input/output price disparity, public subsidy and the ability to socialize externalties, then EROEI

becomes the defining factor, and the EROEI for tar sands is pathetic.

While I agree that oil men do not base decisions on EROEI, ultimately EROEI will determine their ability to make money, and that is theirdriving motivation. Finance can only temporarily allow people to ignore thermodynamics.

EROEI effectively determines what is and is not an energy source for a given society (ie to maintain a given level of socioeconomic

complexity). Unconventional fossil fuels are caught in a paradox - that their EROEI is too low for them

to sustain a society complex enough to produced them.

They can only be produced for the relatively short period of time that the complex society built on conventional sources cont inues to maintain its

current capacities, but as the conventional sources disappear, and that society can no longer support itself, the ability to

undertake all the activities required for unconventional production will be lost . The hype has no

foundation.

We have been living in a major departure from reality in many ways, as always occurs during bubble

times, but those times are coming to an end. Instead of overshoot, we are headed for undershoot,

and we are not going to like it.

Note the critical paradox of unconventional supplies. That is where the cornucopian view of energy, where Monbiot now seems to have landed,breaks down.

The same argument applies to renewable power as it is currently practiced. Without affordable conventional fossil fuels, the

increasingly complex alternatives cannot be developed and exploited.

We find ourselves in a world of receding horizons.

Unconventional supplies are always priced at conventional energy plus a premium, thanks to their crucial dependency on conventional supplies.

What highEnergy Return OnEnergy Investmentmakes possible, low EROEI will eventually take away,

following a brief boom that constitutes the last gasp of our modern energy bubble era.

4. Credit crunch makes all of their DA impacts inevitable

Tverberg 09Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society & Member of the American Academy ofActuaries [Gail E. Tverberg (MS in Mathematics from the University of Illinois), Where Is OilProduction Headed?: An Adverse Scenario , The Oil Drum, 4mar2009, pg.http://www.mindfully.org/Energy/2009/Oil-Production-Scenario4mar09.htm

With all of the debt defaults, and the inability to settle all of the debts equitably, some sort of debt jubilee may be necessary. This may start with

some small countries, like Iceland and perhaps the Ukraine defaulting on their debts. Gradually more and more countries will

default, and their currencies will sinklower and lower.

After a certain point, it may become clear that virtually every economy in the world is in this mess together. There will be no way that

more debt can be issued as "stimulus" to get the world out of this problem. The only thing that can be done isto start canceling debt, in some sort of debt jubilee, and to start over.
http://www.businessinsider.com/a-coming-demand-collapse-will-destroy-the-shale-energy-bull-case-2012-7http://www.businessinsider.com/a-coming-demand-collapse-will-destroy-the-shale-energy-bull-case-2012-7http://www.businessinsider.com/a-coming-demand-collapse-will-destroy-the-shale-energy-bull-case-2012-7http://www.businessinsider.com/a-coming-demand-collapse-will-destroy-the-shale-energy-bull-case-2012-7


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The problem with a debt jubilee is that there would be many too many claimants for many of the world's assets. If a wind turbine owner's debt iscancelled through a debt jubilee, who then "owns" the turbinethe original owner, or the lender whose debt was cancelled? If the debt of afactory making replacement parts for a wind turbine is cancelled, who runs the factorythe original owner of the factory, or the investor whosedebt was cancelled?

The debts that are cancelled are likely tocross country borders, making for international disputes . Furthermore,

countries maywant to

retaliate for a loss of one of their overseas investments by grabbing a businesslocated in its own country that has overseas owners. In not very long, relationshipsamong countries are likely

tosink to deteriorate, and international trade will beatmuch lowerlevels than in the past. War may even

break out, or border disputes.

"Demand" will be at new low levels, because there is likely to be very little cross-border trade, except

with a few trusted partners. Withoutthis trade, it will not be possible to manufacture goods, other than those using onlylocal products. In this kind of scenario, prices (to the extent the monetary system continues to function) would continue to be very low, becauseof the low demand. (A factory that is not operating doesn't need raw materials!)

The credit market would be close to non-existent , because creditors will expect that any debt that is

issued could easily be cancelled. New investment would be limitedto what can be financed by cash flow. With low

prices, this cash flow would be very low, further limiting investment.

It is possible that in some parts of the world, the monetary system will cease to function all together, and barter wouldbecome necessary. Because barter is so cumbersome, this is likely to have a further limiting impact on trade.

In such a scenario, I would expect that oil production would be significantly lower than the physical resource available. If

nothing else, it will be difficult for the wholechain from local production to pipeline to refinery to distribution pipeline

to consumer to functionproperly. Countries that previously exported oil overseas will see that their chances of

getting paid are less than 100%, and may reduce their production to match what they can sell through arrangements with trustedparties.

Production of many other goods may decline as well, as the lack of an adequately functioning monetary system

limits the ability of long supply lines to functionproperly. Natural gas and coal production may decline, as well as oilproduction. Food through mechanized farming may decline, as Liebig's Law of the Minimum makes itself known.

On Figure 2, I show only a slight decline in production in 2009, but then large decreases in 2010, 2011, and 2012 to a level not much above 20

million barrels a day. If it reaches such a low level, due to a widespread failure of the financial system, I would expect electricity to

be affected in many locations, and because of electricity, water and sewer systems. Some large cities

may become uninhabitable .

Under such a scenario, I expect all of this would take a while to get sorted out. If there is a widespread failure of the monetary system, it is

possible that many governments would be replaced. Some countries may fall to pieces, in the manner of

the SovietUnion after its collapsein 1991. Governments may not have much faith in other governmentsexcept perhaps with a few

trusted trade /strategic partners. New monetary systems willlikelybe put in place, but many will not be any

betterthan the previous ones,so bubbles and further collapses may occur .

In such an environment, international businesses will find itvirtually impossible to survive. Businesses are likely

become much smaller and more local. As I have shown on Figure 2, it may be many years beforeoil production begins to rise again. In

fact, itmay never rise again, if international trade stays at a low level.

I would expect that the renaissance, when it comes, would begin with basic human needs, in local communities and local agriculture. People willgrow their own food, and trade with others in their community. There will be small shops that make shoes and clothing and cooking utensils.People may begin to raise animals for transportation.


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People will still need energyfor heating their homes and for cooking. The initial impulse will be to cut down trees

for these purposes, but with the world's large population, this willtend to produce deforestation . Neo-

environmentalists may urge people to use other products for this purposesuch as coal or oil, if these can be obtained. There may be some localelectricity produced, particularly water generated, if transmission systems can be kept in good enough repair.

If this scenario happens, it is difficult for me to see much of a futureforlarge complex systems that require specialized parts

from around the world. Thus, I would expect large wind turbinesto fall into disrepair in a few years, and solar PV panelsto bevery difficult to obtain,aftersuch a crash scenario. Smaller windmills, similar to what a person sees on old farms, may come

back into popular use, as may coal operated steam engines (at least in the US, where coal isstill plentiful).

If you have been following the interconnected threads of what is occurring in our system, you are aware that theabove scenario isat least a

possibility. Due to the complexities involved, it is impossible to estimate a percentage likelihood of this particular trajectory, but the

odds are increasing of something like it.

5. We transform the debate about energy security. Technot warwill be seen as

the solutionSovacool 07Research Fellow for the Energy Governance Program @ National University ofSingapore [Benjamin K. Sovacool (Professor of International Affairs @ Virginia Tech University),Solving the oil independence problem: Is it possible?,Energy PolicyVolume 35, Issue 11,November2007, Pages 5505-5514//ScienceDirect]

The point, however, is that achieving oil independence for the US ispossible, and foreign policy is not the only pathway.

The US can accomplish oil independence throughrobust and coordinated domestic energy policy. To insulate the

American economy from the vagaries of the world oil market,policymakers need not focus only on geopolitical power structures in oil

producing states. Instead, attemptsto change the behavior of the country'sautomobile drivers, industrial

leaders, and homeowners could greatly minimize reliance on foreign supplies of oil. To battle the

oil problem policymakersneed not talkonly about sending more troopsto Iraq or Saudi Arabia nor drafting new

contracts with Nigeria and Russia. Theycouldalso focus on curbing American demand for oil and expanding

domesticconventional and alternative supplies.

The debate over whether oil independence can be achieved for the US continues only because those making the

policy continue to believeit cannot be achieved. The key to implementing a strategy of oil

independence is more a matter of managing the interdependenceof technologies available to reduce oil

demandand increase supply, rather than trying to establish the independenceof the United States from foreign supplies of oil (Grumet, 2006).

Once such interdependence is recognizedand synergistically pursued, the country can achieve oil

independence. The only remaining questions are how and whether the benefits outweigh the costs.

6. The end result is extinctionManteau-Rao 08 - Master of Engineering from Ecole Centrale de Paris [Marguerite Manteau-Rao,(MBA from the University of Chicago) David Holmgrens Energy Future Scenarios, La Marguerite,May 27, 2008, pg. http://lamarguerite.wordpress.com/2008/05/27/david-holmgrens-energy-future-scenarios/]

Collapse suggests a failure of the whole range ofinterlocked systems thatmaintainand support industrial

society as high quality fossil fuels are depletedand/or climate change radically damages the ecological support systems.
http://www.sciencedirect.com.proxy.library.emory.edu/science/journal/03014215http://www.sciencedirect.com.proxy.library.emory.edu/science/journal/03014215http://www.sciencedirect.com.proxy.library.emory.edu/science?_ob=PublicationURL&_tockey=%23TOC%235713%232007%23999649988%23669309%23FLA%23&_cdi=5713&_pubType=J&view=c&_auth=y&_acct=C000034138&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=655046&md5=bb46814fec93576c271b4e8d17d993fbhttp://www.sciencedirect.com.proxy.library.emory.edu/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V2W-4P83D8S-2&_user=655046&_coverDate=11%2F30%2F2007&_rdoc=1&_fmt=high&_orig=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_acct=C000034138&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=655046&md5=cec19a37447986a80122d016f0a2eec3#bib25http://www.sciencedirect.com.proxy.library.emory.edu/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V2W-4P83D8S-2&_user=655046&_coverDate=11%2F30%2F2007&_rdoc=1&_fmt=high&_orig=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_acct=C000034138&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=655046&md5=cec19a37447986a80122d016f0a2eec3#bib25http://www.sciencedirect.com.proxy.library.emory.edu/science?_ob=PublicationURL&_tockey=%23TOC%235713%232007%23999649988%23669309%23FLA%23&_cdi=5713&_pubType=J&view=c&_auth=y&_acct=C000034138&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=655046&md5=bb46814fec93576c271b4e8d17d993fbhttp://www.sciencedirect.com.proxy.library.emory.edu/science/journal/03014215


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This collapse would be fast and more or less continuous withoutthe restabilisations possible in Energy Descent.

It would inevitably involve a major die-off of human population and a loss of the knowledge and

infrastructure necessary for industrial civilization if notmore severe scenarios including human

extinction along with much of the planets biodiversity.

7. Plan solvesmapping hydrates overcomes current drilling impediments allowing

for safe drilling

Weitemeyer 08Ph.D. in Earth Science from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC SanDiego. [Marine Electromagnetic Methods for Gas Hydrate Characterization, Weitemeyer, Karen A,Scripps Institution of Oceanography, 11/24/2008, pp 6-8] // AG

The large stores of concentrated methane found in hydrate(1 volume of hydrate contains 164volumes of methane gas at STP) has led many countries to view hydrate as a potential energyresource, especially countries without conventional hydrocarbon resources and countries which import

energy, such as Japan, China, India, and the USA (Koh and Sloan, 2007; Milkov and Sassen, 2002; Maxet al., 2006; Dawe and Thomas, 2007). Concentrated accumulations of hydrate may be the target formineral resource exploitation; however finding and locating subsurface structures of this type may

be difficult or even impossible with conventional seismic methods(Kleinberg, 2006).Electromagnetic methods maybe preferable to seismic methods because the resistivity contrast is

highly sensitive to the concentration as well as the geometric distribution of hydrate.

High abundances of hydrate have significant implications for the global carbon cycle(Dickens,2003). Perturbations of the stability conditions of hydrate could cause the catastrophic release ofmethane(a significant greenhouse gas), which may have contributed to past climate change(Kennettet al., 2003; Kvenvolden, 1993b). However, it is the chronic release of hydrate, currently taking placein Arctic regions, that is more likely to be a significant contributor to future climate changeand has

been associated with past climate change. For example, the carbon isotopic excursion at the end of thePaleocene is possibly from hydrate (Archer, 2007; Archer and Buffett, 2005; Dickens, 2001). Somestudies also suggest that climate change will, in turn, affect hydrate deposits worldwide (Fyke andWeaver, 2006).

Immediate interest in gas hydrate arises from the potential geohazard posed by drilling into and

through hydrate, and slope instability(Mienert et al., 2005; Nixon and Grozic, 2007), which maythreaten seafloor infrastructure(Kven7 volden, 2000; Hovland and Gudmestad, 2001). As deep seaexploration becomes more common, the threat of drilling into hydrate sediments will become a

more significant problem, because more drilling and production operations will be within the

thermodynamic stability conditions for hydrate(Dawe and Thomas, 2007). Warm drilling fluids cancause pre-existing hydrate to dissociate; this can cause gas to build up and cause blow-outs of wells.Melted hydrate may also cause sediments to become loose slurries and provide little or no

structural support, leading to tubing collapse or seafloor instability. Additional hazards while drillingmay result from the formation of gas hydrate in the event of a kickwhen hydrocarbon flows into thewell bore from the reservoircausing serious well safety, operational, and control problems (Ostergaardet al., 2000).

Slope failure due to hydrate dissociation has been implicated in the Storrega slide offshore Norway(Paull et al., 2007; Sultan et al., 2004) and may have released enough sediment to generate a tsunami


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(Smith et al., 2004). Similarly, hydrates are implicated as one of many possible factors for the Humboldtslide off the coast of California, where decaying gas hydrate released methane gas in the bubble phase,increasing the pore water pressure and decreasing the effective strength of the sediment, and therebyreducing the stability of the slope (Field and Barber, 1993).

A developing interest in hydrate is to use carbon dioxide (CO2) hydrate as an aid to carbon sequestration

in the deep oceans (Lee et al., 2003). Carbon dioxide would be injected into the sediments and theformation of CO2 hydrate would create a natural barrier to the release of carbon dioxide stored beneaththe hydrate (Lee et al., 2003). It will be necessary to develop long-term non-invasive monitoringtechniques of hydrate formation during ocean carbon sequestration. The economic and

environmental uses for hydrate, and the geohazards posed by it, all make mapping the extent and

distribution of hydrate important.

8. Burning hydrates better than release from the oceanemits less carbon than

fossil fuels

Dpke & Requate 14Lena-Katharina, and Till Requate, 2014, [The economics of exploiting gashydrates] Energy Economics, Volume 42, March 2014, Pages 355364http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988313002430

Due to slow response times of deep ocean temperatures to surface temperatures (1001000 years), CH4 is mostly released

chronically from deeper ocean deposits. Accordingly, CH4 does not reach the atmosphere as methane but oxidizes in the ocean

to CO2 (Archer, 2007). Only in the case of catastrophic blowouts CH4 is capable of reaching the atmosphere. By contrast, methane hydrate

deposits on the shallow arctic shelf and hydrates widespread in the permafrost regions are more vulnerable to temperature change. Hence, in these

areas there have been observations of CH4 being released in to the atmosphere. For this reason, (Max, 2003) propose cautious preventive

exploitation of dissolving methane hydrates to mitigate the escape of CH4 into the atmosphere and its impact on climate.

Currently, geoscientists and engineers all over the world are engaging in research activities geared

to extracting methane from gas hydrates in a cost-efficient way and avoiding too much methane

leakageduring this process. This research interest is further motivated by the tremendous amounts of

CH4 stored in the hydrates and by its geographically widespread distribution. For example, Kvenvolden

(1988) estimates that there are 10,000 gigatonnes(Gt) ofcarbon stored in methane hydrate deposits. This

corresponds to twice the amount of currently recoverable worldwide fossil fuels (Sloan and Koh, 2008) andhas been the most-widely cited consensus value over the last few decades. However, (Milkov, 2004) has updated the global estimate ofhydrate-bound gas to a value of ~ 5002500 Gt of methane carbon in a calculation that best reflects current knowledge on submarine gas

hydrates. Even if only a small fraction of these energy resources was technically and economically

exploitable, methane from sea-floor gas hydrates could play an important role in the world's energy

mix, as already onepromilleof the estimated global methane hydrates inventory would cover current

annual global energy needs(Walsh et al., 2009).

In terms of the final product, gas extracted from gas hydrates is a close substitute for natural gas. One majordifference is that natural gas contains up to 20% other hydrocarbons and inert gases, while gas extracted from methane hydrates is almost pure

CH4, the chemically most stringently reduced form of carbon. Of all hydrocarbons, CH4 is the least carbon-intensive, so

energy from CH4 produces the lowest quantity of CO2 per unit of output.

To the best of our knowledge, (Walsh et al., 2009) were the first to mention gas hydrates in an economic journal. In their paper, they sum uprecent research on the resource potential of gas hydrates and estimate the gas prices at which the exploitation of gas hydrates would become

profitable. They find that gas prices of around 712 $US/Mscf (US dollars per thousand standard cubic feet) would be necessary to cover thecosts involved in exploiting terrestrial hydrate deposits. For marine hydrates, the costs of extraction would be 3.54 $US/Mscf higher than for a


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comparable offshore deposit of conventional natural gas. In the context of offshore extraction, the authors also mention another level of riskswhich cannot yet be quantified (p.821), which we interpret as the geological risk associated with extraction of offshore hydrates.

Economically, the discovery of gas hydrates may be beneficial for the world economy, as a) it may

reduce the scarcity of fossil fuels,in particular of natural gas, and b) as a low-carbon source of energy it can

serve as a transition to zero-emission energies . Countries with access to sea-floor resources according to Art. 77(1)

UNCLOS, such as Norway, Russia, India, USA, China, Japan, New Zealand, Chile, and possibly others, will benefit from exporting methane, but

importers will also benefit from lower gas prices on the world market. On the other hand, the prospect has its drawbacks, since exploitation of gas

hydrates may give rise to two kinds of externalities. First, even preventive methane exploitation from gas hydrates contributes to global

warming in two different ways, a) by combustion and hence generation of CO2, and b) by methane leakage during the mining process. Second,

mining of the hydrates, i.e. removal of the cement, may also lead to the destabilization of continental margins, and this m ay increase the risk of

marine geohazards.


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Advantage (_)Vents

1. Further modeling of sea floor key to vents research

GEOMAR 14Abbreviation for the Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel. [Hydrothermalvents: How productive are the ore factories in the deep sea? Science Daily, 24 April 2014,www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/04/140424102605.htm]// AG

In general, it is well known that seawater penetrates into Earth's interior through cracks and crevicesalong the plate boundaries. The seawater is heated by the magma; the hot water rises again, leachesmetals and other elements from the ground and is released as a black colored solution. "However, indetail it is somewhat unclear whether the water enters the ocean floor in the immediate vicinity of

the vents and flows upward immediately, or whether it travels long distances underground before

venting," explains Dr. Jrg Hasenclever from GEOMAR.

This question is not only important for the fundamental understanding of processes on our planet.

It also has very practical implications.Some of the materials leached from the underground are

deposited on the seabed and form ore deposits that may be of economically interest . There is a

major debate, however, how large the resource potential of these deposits might be. "When we knowwhich paths the water travels underground, we can better estimate the quantities of materials

releasedby black smokers over thousands of years," says Hasenclever.

Hasenclever and his colleagues have used for the first time a high-resolution computer model of theseafloor to simulate a six kilometer long and deep, and 16 kilometer wide section of a mid-ocean ridge inthe Pacific. Among the data used by the model was the heat distribution in the oceanic crust, which isknown from seismic studies. In addition, the model also considered the permeability of the rock and thespecial physical properties of water.

The simulation required several weeks of computing time. The result: "There are actually two differentflow paths -- about half the water seeps in near the vents, where the ground is very warm. The other half

seeps in at greater distances and migrates for kilometers through the seafloor before exiting years later."Thus, the current study partially confirmed results from a computer model, which were published in2008 in the scientific journal Science. "However, the colleagues back then were able to simulate only

a much smaller region of the ocean floor and therefore identified only the short paths near the

black smokers," says Hasenclever.

The current study is based on fundamental work on the modeling of the seafloor , which was

conducted in the group of Professor Lars Rpke within the framework of the Kiel Cluster of Excellence

"The Future Ocean." It provides scientists worldwide with the basis for further investigations to see

how much ore is actually on and in the seabed, and whether or not deep-sea mining on a large scalecould ever become worthwhile. "So far, we only know the surface of the ore deposits at hydrothermal

vents. Nobody knows exactly how much metal is really deposited there. All the discussions about thepros and cons of deep-sea ore mining are based on a very thin database," says co-author Prof. Dr.

Colin Devey from GEOMAR. "We need to collect a lot more data on hydrothermal systems before

we can make reliable statements."
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2. Vents biotech improves agriculture, biotech, and pharmaceutics

Thornburg et al 09Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Oregon State University...[Deep-SeaHydrothermal Vents: Potential Hot Spots for Natural Products Discovery? Christopher C. Thornburg, T.Mark Zabriskie, and Kerry L. McPhail,Journal of Natural Products, American Chemical Society andAmerican Society of Pharmacognosy, 20 October 2009, accessed from Emory] // AG

Cultivation of microorganisms was central to methods used in early studies of microbial communities todetermine community diversity, biomass, and production rates.105 However, most hydrothermal ventmicroorganisms are extremely resistant to cultivation, which might be expected considering the

extreme environments they inhabit.64 Cultivation strategies utilizing various in situ colonizationdevices including vent cap chambers,106 pumice-filled stainless-steel pipes,107 titanium-meshcatheters,108 and titaniumsheathed thermocouple arrays109 showed moderate success in culturing someof these microbes in their natural environment for the study of in situ physiological expression (see Figure2 for example studies).110 Advances in laboratory cultivation have allowed fairly accurate replications oftemperature, nutrient composition, and pressure, which have greatly increased the diversity of culturedmicrobes from previously uncultivated microorganisms. 63,111,112 Considerable effort has beenapplied to the largescale cultivation of hyperthermophilic anaerobes to investigate their potential

biotechnological applications .113 Numerous biotechnology companies are actively involved in

product development from thermophilic vent organisms. These biotechnological interests havefocused mainly on the use of whole cells, forexample, sulfatereducing bacteria in waste managementprocesses,114 andalso the development of new enzymes20 and exopolysaccharides115 to improveagriculture, biotechnology, cosmetics, pharmaceutics, and even bone healing.116,117 In contrast,there are few reported culture efforts of likely small molecule natural product-producing microbes (e.g.,Actinobacteria). Researchers in the Marine Drug Discovery Program at HBOI have isolated and culturedover 11 000 marine heterotrophic bacteria and fungi, both free-living and from invertebrate filter feeders.The Harbor Branch Marine Microbe Database118 provides public access to detailed descriptions ofmicroorganisms associated with deeper water (>35 m) marine invertebrates, including rRNA-basedtaxonomy, geographic source, depth, Gen-Bankaccessionnumber,images,andcultureandcellcharacteristics.119,120 There is also a focus onlaboratory cultivation of deep vent microbes at the Center for Marine Biotechnology at RutgersUniversity, where they have developed laboratory techniques to culture tubeworms together with theirsymbiotic bacteria.121 Other successes in laboratory culture of potential natural product-producingmicroorganisms include the isolation of 38 actinomycetes from the Mariana Trench sediments (usingmarine agar and culture media selective for actinomycetes).122 These bacteria were assigned to theDermacoccus, Kocuria, Micromonospora, Streptomyces, Tsukamurella, and Williamsia genera based on16S rRNA analysis. Furthermore, nonribosomal peptide synthetase (NRPS) genes were detected in morethan half of the isolates, and type I polyketide synthases (PKS-I) were identified in five of the 38 strains.

3. Marine organisms hold significant promise for necessary drug development

Montaser and Luesch 11[Rana & HendrikUniversity of Florida College of Pharmacy, Marinenatural products: a new wave of drugs?, September,Future Medicinal Chemistry, Vol. 3, No. 12, Pages1475-1489 \\NL]

Over half of all drugs are based on terrestrial natural products scaffolds. Despite thisfact, naturalproducts have been neglected for drug discovery with the advent of high-throughput screening

technology. However, since assaying large synthetic libraries that are irrelevant to our chiral world


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has not lived up to the initial promise of delivering drug candidates, there has been a renaissance of

natural products as leads for drug discovery, particularly if novel sources/organisms can be uncovered.The largely unexplored marine world that presumably harbors the most biodiversity may be the

vastest resource to discover novel validated structures with novel modes of action that cover

biologically relevant chemical space.Several challenges, including the supply problem and targetidentification, need to be met for successful drug development of these oftentimes complex structures.Canthe hurdles associated with developing these molecules be overcome? The answer is yes, becausethe first marine natural products have entered the drug market and several hopeful candidates are

already in advanced stages. Can the oceans provide a robust pipeline of marine drugs? Advances intechnologies such as sampling strategies, nanoscale NMR for structure determination, total

chemical synthesis, biosynthesis and genetic engineering are all crucial to the success of marine

natural products as drug leads. Whole-genome sequencing will become a routine method to predictbiosynthetic and drug potential.In our view, the high degree of innovation in the field of marine

natural products will lead to successful marine drug discovery and development (Figure 6), and

provides grounds for our optimism that marine natural products will form a new wave of drugs

that flow into the market and pharmacies in the future.

4. Deep-sea organisms advance biotech research

Orcutt et al 11Center for Geomicrobiology at Aarhus University. [Microbial Ecology of the DarkOcean above, at, and below the Seafloor, Beth N. Orcutt, Jason B Sylvan, NinaJ. Knab, and Katrina J.Edwards,Microbiology and Molecular Biology Reviews, Volume 75, Number 2, 2011, pp 361-422,Accessed from Emory] // AG

In microbial ecology, we consider that fewer than 1% of the species in an environmental microbialcommunity have been cultivated(14, 237). This percentage may be even lower for some dark oceanhabitats that have yielded few environmental isolates, such as deep sediments and oceanic crust.

Despite the low proportional representation of prokaryotic isolates from dark ocean habitats, the fewrepresentatives available are highly valuable for discovering information about unusual types ofmetabolism, pressure and temperature adaptations, and growth under extreme conditions(extreme compared to human-experienced conditions, although not extreme in the sense that such

conditions are common on Earth). Biochemical investigations of dark ocean-derived isolates can be

rewarding for biotechnology research as well, especially since research on piezophilic and

thermophilic microorganisms may lead to the development of new enzymes for pressure- and heat-tolerant applications. For example, lipid-degrading enzymes found in microorganisms that colonize whalefalls have been explored for commercial use as low-temperature detergent agents. Here we present anddiscuss some of the recently cultivated microorganisms from the dark ocean(Table 7). This summaryis not meant to be comprehensive but rather to illustrate the breadth of different organisms and

lifestyles present in the dark ocean as well as to highlight areas requiring focused culturing effortsin the future.


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5. Pandemics and bioterrorism will cause extinctioncontinuously develop new

treatments is key

Riedel 05MD, PhD, Department of Pathology at Baylor University. [:lague: from natural disease tobioterrorism, Stefan Ridel,Proceedings Baylor University Medical Center, Volume 18, Number 2, pp116, accessed from Emory] // AG

In the past centuries, plague has caused social and economic devastation on a scale unmatched byany other infectious agent except for smallpox. Although at the present time the organism is not amajor health concern, still approximately 2000 cases annually are reported worldwide. It is evidentthat plague has not been eradicated and will not be eradicated soon. The WHO recently categorizedplague as a reemerging infectious disease. Despite the major advances in the knowledge of the disease, inpublic health, and in diagnosis and treatment that were made since the discovery of the causative agent Y.pestis, the main reasons for the persistence of the disease are found in its epidemiology: plague isessentially a disease of wild rodents that is transmitted by fleas. The control of this wild animal

population is inherently difficult, since the burrows are most often located in inaccessible areas. Andeven if at some point the infected animal reservoir could be completely destroyed, this would notguarantee the extinction of the disease: Y. pestis can survive in animal carcasses and litter for severalyears, thus being a source of reinfection of other rodents. With the new evidence of the reemergence of

plague in Africa and India, the possibility of a fourth pandemic has to be considered.Furthermore,

the recent emergence of variant strains and the possibility of resistance to current treatment

regimens should lead to continuous research on Y. pestis and identification of possible new treatment

modalities.

In the era of bioterrorism, several other issues have to be addressed. The medical community as wellas the public should be educated about the basic infectious disease epidemiology and control measures toincrease the possibility of a calm and reasoned response if an outbreak should occur. Furthermore,improved culture methods, biosafety facilities, and methods for susceptibility testing are necessary

to allow for a more rapid identification of diseases such as plague. Continuous efforts should bemade to seek new treatment modalities. This last concern is of great importance, since concerns

about bioengineered organisms have been raised. It is in fact highly feasible to construct extremely

virulent organisms resistant to standard antibiotics used for treatment and prophylaxis. A defense

plan built on prophylactic antibiotics is highly vulnerable , given the fact that multidrug-resistant

plague bacilli have recently occurred naturally. Vaccines have been used in the prevention of diseases formany decades and play a central role in the biodefense against a smallpox attack (51,52). It seems logical

that our current national biodefense strategy must include the development of vaccines against

multidrug-resistant strains of anthrax and plague to effectively protect the population.

A threat that is less likely but must be taken very seriously is the creation of genetic constructs throughrecombination technology. Such organismscalled chimeraswould combine the traits of severalpathogens to create a highly virulent, transmissible, and multidrug-resistant organism. Alibek andHandelman described work on chimeras being conducted by Soviet military scientists (40). Theseorganisms would challenge our ability to respond effectively to a public health threat with

bioweapons.Most recent epidemics like HIV and severe acute respiratory syndrome have taught us thatwe can indeed respond quickly to global public health emergencies and develop diagnostic methods,therapies, and, hopefully, vaccines. However, proper education of the medical community as well as the


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public remains an essential cornerstone to ensure an effective safeguard for tragedies such as bioweaponsattacks. Let us hope that we will not have to face such a challenge that is caused by the constructionof a deadly pathogenic microorganism developed for the sole purpose of killing humans.

6. And extinctionagents are easy to acquire and disperseMatheny 7Research associate with theFuture of Humanity Institute @Oxford University [Jason G.Matheny (PhD candidate in Applied Economics and Masters in Public Health atJohns HopkinsUniversity), Reducing the Risk of Human Extinction,Risk Analysis. Volume 27, Number 5, 2007, pg.http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/website/resources/publications/2007_orig-articles/2007-10-15-reducingrisk.html]

Of current extinctionrisks, the most severemay be bioterrorism. The knowledge needed to engineer avirus is modest compared to that needed to build a nuclear weapon; the necessary equipment andmaterials are increasingly accessibleand because biological agents are self replicating, a weapon canhave an exponential effecton a population (Warrick, 2006; Williams, 2006).5Current U.S. biodefenseefforts are funded at $5 billion per year to develop and stockpile new drugs and vaccines, monitorbiological agents and emerging diseases, and strengthen the capacities of local health systems to respondto pandemics (Lam, Franco, & Shuler, 2006).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_of_Humanity_Institutehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxford_Universityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johns_Hopkins_Universityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johns_Hopkins_Universityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johns_Hopkins_Universityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johns_Hopkins_Universityhttp://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00960.xhttp://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00960.xhttp://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/website/resources/publications/2007_orig-articles/2007-10-15-reducingrisk.htmlhttp://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/website/resources/publications/2007_orig-articles/2007-10-15-reducingrisk.htmlhttp://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/website/resources/publications/2007_orig-articles/2007-10-15-reducingrisk.htmlhttp://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/website/resources/publications/2007_orig-articles/2007-10-15-reducingrisk.htmlhttp://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00960.xhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johns_Hopkins_Universityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johns_Hopkins_Universityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxford_Universityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_of_Humanity_Institute


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Plan

The United States federal government should substantially increase its exploration

of the Earths oceans by mapping the ocean floor.


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Solvency

1. Government key to MH exploration and development

Ruppel 11Ph.D. in Solid Earth geophysics from MIT, Chief of the USGS Gas Hydrates Project.[Methane Hydrates and the Future of Natural Gas, Carolyn Ruppel, U.S. Geological Survey,Supplementary Paper 4, accessed from Emory] // AG

Despite the relative immaturity of gas hydrates R&D compared to that for other unconventional

gas resources, the accomplishments of the past decade, summarizedin detail by Collett et al. (2009),have advanced gas hydrates along the path towards eventual commercial production.The U.S.Department of Energy (DOE), as directed by the Methane Hydrates R&D Act of 2000 and the

subsequent Energy Act of 2005, has partnered with other government agencies, academe, and

industry in field, modeling, and laboratory programs that have produced numerous successes(Doyle et al., 2004; Paull et al., 2010). These accomplishments have included the refinement of methodsfor pre-drill estimation of hydrate saturations and safe completion of logging and coring programs in gashydrate-bearing sediments in both deepwater marine and permafrost environments. Within the next 4years, US federal-industry partnerships are scheduled to oversee advanced logging and direct

sampling of resource-grade (high saturation) gas hydrates in sand deposits in the deepwater Gulf ofMexicoand completion of a long-term test of production methods on the Alaskan North Slope. In Japan,the government-supported methane hydrates program (now called MH21; Tsuji et al., 2009) has alsorelied on cooperation among the private, public, and academic sectors over past decade and plans toconduct an initial production testing of resource-grade gas hydrates in the deepwater Nankai Trough in2012. The current MH21 effort has grown out of earlier advanced borehole logging and deep coring in1999-2000 (MITI) and in 2004 (METI), as described by Tsuji et al. (2004, 2009) and Fujii et al. (2009).Canada has also worked with a consortium of partners to complete three major drilling programs in thepermafrost of the Mackenzie Delta (e.g., Dallimore et al., 1999; Dallimore and Collett, 2005; Dallimore etal., 2008). Canada was the first country to ever produce small volumes of gas from hydrates during shortduration (up to a few days) production tests at these wells. Since 2005, India (e.g., Collett et al., 2008; M.

Lee and Collett, 2009; Yun et al., 2010), Korea (Park et al., 2008; Ryu et al., 2009), China (Zhang et al.,2007; Wu et al., 2008), and private sector interests operating offshore Malaysia (Hadley et al., 2008) havealso launched major, successful deepwater hydrate drilling expeditions, and Korea drilled the UlleungBasin again in the second half of 2010 (S.R. Lee et al., 2011).

As befits costly exploration projects with uncertain short-term payoffs, the global effort to

investigate the potential of gas hydrates as a resource has often been carried out with significant

cooperation among countries, substantial support from governments, and major leadership from

both the government and academic research sectors. Even after more research, key challenges are

likely to remain in locating gas hydrates, assessing the size of the resource, developing viable

production strategies, and understanding the economics of eventual gas production from gas

hydrates within the context of natural gas supply as a whole.

2. AUVs hold promise as future exploration systems and devices

McNutt 13 [MarciaAmerican geophysicist who is editor-in-chief of the journal Science.McNuttholds a visiting appointment at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and she is the chair of theGeoengineering Climate committee of the National Academy of Sciences. McNutt was director of theUnited States Geological Survey (USGS) and science adviser to the United States Secretary of the


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Interior. Prior to working for USGS, McNutt was president and chief executive officer of the MontereyBay Aquarium Research Institute, an oceanographic research center in the United States, professor ofmarine geophysics at the Stanford University School of Earth Sciences and professor of marinegeophysics at University of California, Santa Cruz; Accelerating Ocean Exploration, 8/30/13,Science,http://www.sciencemag.org/content/341/6149/937 \\NL]

As a first step, future exploration should make better use of autonomous platforms that areequipped with a broader array of in situ sensors, for lower-cost data gathering. Fortunately, new,more nimble, and easily deployed platforms are available, ranging from $200 kits for build-your-ownremotely operated vehicles to longrange autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs), solar-poweredautonomous platforms, autonomous boats,AUVs that operate cooperatively in swarming behaviorthrough the use of artificial intelligence, and gliders that can cross entire oceans. New in situchemical and biological sensors allow the probing of ocean processes in real time in ways not

possible if samples are processed later in laboratories.

Exploration also would greatly benefit from improvements in telepresence. For expeditions thatrequire ships(very distant from shore and requiring the return of complex samples), experts on shorecan now join through satellite links, enlarging the pool of talent available to comment on the

importance of discoveriesas they happen and to participate in real-time decisions that affect expeditionplanning. This type of communication can enrich the critical human interactions that guide thediscovery process on such expeditions.

3. US agencies key to mapping and development

Boswell 11PhD in Geology from West Virginia University and Technology Manger for MethaneHydrates at the National Energy Technology Laboratory for the DOE. [Paper #1-11 METHANEHYDRATES, Ray Boswell, Prepared for the Resource and Supply Task Group, Working Document ofthe North American Resource Development Study, 2011, accessed through Emory] // AG

Within the United States, industry gas hydrate R&D is focused on those issues that impact ongoingoperations: primarily flow assurance and shallow drilling hazard assessment and mitigation.

Domestic research into gas hydrate as a resource and as a constituent of global carbon cycling is

primarily conducted by federal agenciesand academia, with industry collaboration primarilyenabledby a U.S. National R&D Program lead by the DOE in coordination with the USGS, the Bureau of

Ocean Energy Management , Regulation, and Enforcement (BOEMRE), the Bureau of Land

Management (BLM), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Naval

Research Laboratory (NRL), and the National Science Foundation (NSF).Although each federalagency participating in this coordinated effort independently prioritizes and conducts its own efforts asthey pursue their individual organizational missions, two interagency coordination committees work toensure that these efforts are planned and conducted in a manner that reduces redundancies and

maximizes synergies. The advances in gas hydrates R&D in recent years, particularly the success offield programs in Alaska (in 2007) and in the Gulf of Mexico (in 2005 and in 2009) have thus far keptthe U.S. National Program on track to achieve the long-term goals and priorities of the program(NRC, 2010).


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4. 3-D mapping tech feasible

Goto et al 08Associate Professor in the Department of Civil and Earth Resources Engineering, PhDin Engineering from Kyoto University. [A marine deep-towed DC resistivity survey in a methanehydrate area, Japan Sea,Exploration Geophysics, Volume 39, 2008, pp 57-58, Csiro Publishing,accessed from Emory] // AG

Conclusions

In order to detect MH distributions, especially the top boundary, we have developed a new marineDC resistivity survey system (MANTA),consisting of a deep-towed system, a transmitter and a 160 mlong tail with source electrodes and a receiver dipole. The MANTA system can dive down to 6000 mwater depth, and can be towed at 5 m clearance above the seafloor. The feasibility of the MANTA

system has been discussed on the basis of numerical studies.

We have carried out field tests off Joetsu, in the Japan Sea, over recently recognised MH-exposed areas.Apparent resistivity is estimated with high accuracy, and indicates relatively high values, implying

the existence of resistive material below the seafloor. Around the areas with methane hydrate exposure,anomalously high apparent resistivity is observed with short source-receiver separations, so that weinterpret these high apparent resistivities to be due to the MH zone below the seafloor. On the basis of apseudosection, we infer a heterogeneous distribution of the depth to the top of the MH layer. Althoughqualitative imaging has been achieved, inversion codes that take into account the MANTAs electrodelocations and the bathymetry are necessary for further discussion and estimation of the precise depth andresistivity estimation of the MH zone.

As a result of the field test of the MANTA system, we can image the sub-seafloor structure

continuously with horizontal resolution of several tens of metres. The maximum sounding depth is

100 m. The towed speed was 1 kn normally, so that we can scan the resistivity structure along atotal profile length of40 km/day. Therefore, we propose that our MANTA system will be useful fortwo-dimensional or three-dimensional imaging with parallel profiles, to detect MH zones in a wide

area.


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Topicality


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DefOcean Exploration

Ocean exploration is establishing new lines of knowledge

Malik et al. 13[Malik, M. A.NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration and Research; Valette-Silver, N.J. - NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration and Research; Lobecker, E.; Skarke, A. D. - NOAA Office of

Ocean Exploration and Research; Elliott, K. - NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration and Research;McDonough, J. -NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration and Research, To Explore or to Research: Trendsin modern age ocean studies, American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2013, NASA Data System\\accessed 6/14/14\\NL]

The recommendations of President's Panel Report on Ocean Exploration gave r ise to NOAA's Office of Ocean Exploration in 2001, and helped establish NOAA as t he lead agency for a federal

ocean exploration program. The panel defined exploration as discovery through disciplined, diverse observations

and recordings of findings including rigorous, systematic observations and documentation of

biological, chemical, physical, geological, and archaeological aspects of the ocean in the three

dimensions of space and in time . Here we ask the question about the fine line that separates ';Exploration' and ';Research'. We contend that successful

exploration aims to establish new lines of knowledge or give rise to new hypothesis as compared to

research where primary goal is to prove or disprove an existing hypothesis.However, there can be considerable time lagbefore a hypothesis can be established after an initial observation. This creates interesting challenges for ocean exploration because instant ';return on investment' can not be readily shown.

Strong media and public interest is garnered by far and apart exciting discoveries about new biological species or processes. However, most of the ocean exploration work goes to systematicallyextract basic information about a previously unknown area. We refer to this activity as baseline characterization in providing information a bout an area which can support hypothesis g enerationand further research to prove or disprove t his hypothesis. Examples of such successful characterization include OE R endeavors in the Gulf o f Mexico that spanned over 10 years and it provided

baseline characterization in terms of biological diversity and distribution on basin-wide scale. This baseline characterization was also

conveniently used by scientists to conduct researchon benthic communities to st udy effects of deep water horizon incident. More recently similarcharacterization has been attempted by NOAA Ship O keanos Explorer from 2011 - 2013 field seaso n in NE Atlantic canyon. This has been one of the first ever campaigns to systematically mapthe NE canyons from US-Canada border to Cape Hatteras. After the 3D mapping of the canyons that included multibeam sonar derived bathymetry and backscatter, OER provided the first evercomprehensive maps of the seafloor and water column which have become the basis for further exploration and research in this region. NOAA Ship Okeanos Explorer currently remains t he onlyfederal vessel dedicated solely to Ocean Exploratio n. Examples of some of the recent discoveries of t he ship will be provided t o explain as how Exploration and Research are merging together inmodern era of ocean sciences.

Exploration is disciplined observations of five aspects of the ocean-Hard brightline and most predictable

NOAA 13[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - The National Oceanic andAtmospheric Administration is a scientific agency within the United States Department of Commercefocused on the conditions of the oceans and the atmosphere, January 7th, 2013, What Is OceanExploration and Why Is It Important?,http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/backmatter/whatisexploration.html\\accessed 6/15/14\\NL]

Ocean exploration is about making new discoveries, searching for things that are unusual and unexpected. Although it

involves the search for things yet unknown, ocean exploration is disciplined and systematic. It includes rigorous

observations and documentation of biological, chemical, physical, geological, and archaeological

aspects of the ocean. Findings made through ocean exploration expand our fundamental scientific

knowledge and understanding, helping to lay the foundation for more detailed, hypothesis-based

scientific investigations.
http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/backmatter/whatisexploration.htmlhttp://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/backmatter/whatisexploration.htmlhttp://accessed/http://accessed/http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/backmatter/whatisexploration.html


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PredictabilityNOAA Most Predictable

NOAA is the most predictablelead agency in charge of exploration

Malik et al. 13[Malik, M. A.NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration and Research; Valette-Silver, N.J. - NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration and Research; Lobecker, E.; Skarke, A. D. - NOAA Office ofOcean Exploration and Research; Elliott, K. - NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration and Research;McDonough, J. -NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration and Research, To Explore or to Research: Trendsin modern age ocean studies, American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2013, NASA Data System\\accessed 6/14/14\\NL]

The recommendations of President's Panel Report on Ocean Exploration gave rise to NOAA's

Office of Ocean Explorationin 2001, and helped establish NOAA as the lead agency for a federal

ocean exploration program. The panel defined exploration as discovery through disciplined, diverse observations

and recordings of findings including rigorous, systematic observations and documentation of

biological, chemical, physical, geological, and archaeological aspects of the ocean in the three

dimensions of space and in time . Here we ask the question about the fine line that separates ';Exploration' and ';Research'. We contend thatsuccessful exploration aims to establish new lines of knowledge or give rise to new hypothesis as compared to research where primary goal is to prove or disprove an

existing hypothesis. However, there can be considerable time lag before a hypothesis can be established after an initial observation. This creates interesting challengesfor ocean exploration because instant ';return on investment' can not be readily shown. Strong media and public interest is g arnered by far and apart excitingdiscoveries about new biological species or processes. However, most of the ocean exploration work goes to systematically extract basic information about apreviously unknown area. We refer to this activity as baseline characterization in providing information about an area which can support hypothesis generation andfurther research to prove or disprove this hypothesis. Examples of such successful characterization include OER endeavors in the Gulf of Mexico that spanned over 10years and it provided baseline characterization in ter ms of biological diversity and distribution on basin -wide scale. This baseline characterization was alsoconveniently used by scientists to conduct research on benthic communities to study effects of deep water horizon incident. More recently similar characterization hasbeen attempted by NOAA Ship Okeanos Explorer from 2011 - 2013 field season in NE Atlantic canyon. This has been one of the first ever campaigns tosystematically map the NE canyons from US-Canada border to Cape Hatteras. After the 3D mapping of the canyons that included multibeam sonar derivedbathymetry and backscatter, OER provided the first ever comprehensive maps of the seafloor and water column which have become the basis for further explorationand research in this region. NOAA Ship Okeanos Explorer currently remains the only federal vessel dedicated solely to Ocean Exploration. Examples of some of therecent discoveries of the ship will be provided to explain as how Exploration and Research are merging together in modern era of ocean sciences.


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Exploration Knowledge K2 Real Life Skills

Exploration is important because it develops real life skills

NOAA 13[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, January 7th, 2013, What Is OceanExploration and Why Is It Important?,http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/backmatter/whatisexploration.html\\accessed 6/15/14\\NL]

While new discoveries are always exciting to scientists, information from ocean exploration is

important to everyone. Unlocking the mysteries of deep-sea ecosystems can reveal new sources for medical drugs, food, energy resources, and otherproducts. Information from deep-ocean exploration can help predict earthquakes and tsunamis and help us understand how we are affecting and being affected by

changes in Earths climate and atmosphere. Expeditions to the unexplored ocean can help focus research into critical

geographic and subject areas that are likely to produce tangible benefits.Ocean exploration can

improve ocean literacy and inspire new generations of youth to seek careers in science, technology,

engineering, and mathematics . The challenges of exploring the deep ocean can provide the basis for

problem-solving instruction in technology and engineering that can be applied in other situations .

Exploration leaves a legacy of new knowledge that can be used by those not yet born to answer

questions not yet posed at the time of exploration.
http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/backmatter/whatisexploration.htmlhttp://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/backmatter/whatisexploration.htmlhttp://accessed/http://accessed/http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/backmatter/whatisexploration.html


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Inherency


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2ACNo Modeling/Mapping of Ocean Now

We know nothing about our oceanswe must expand exploration

Helvarg 4/1BA in History from Goddard College in Vermont and journalist. [Op-Ed It's no surprisewe can't find Flight 370,LATimes, 4/1/2014, David Helvarg,http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-

oe-0401-helvarg-flight-370-ocean-exploration-20140401-story.html]// AGEven accounting for more than 70 years of classified military hydrographic surveys, we've still

mapped less than 10% of the ocean with the resolution we've used to map all of the moon,Mars oreven several moons of Jupiter.

Obviously, our ability to search for a missing aircraft at sea has come a long way since Amelia Earhartdisappeared while trying to cross the Pacific in 1937. But the patched-together satellite data andelectronic-signals processingthat has so far pointed the Flight 370 search to an area 1,800 miles fromPerth, Australia, is no more than a crisis-mode, jury-rigged, extraordinary effort.Consider this: Ifyou're a drug smuggler and you enter U.S. coastal waters in a speedboat at night, and then go dead in thewater during the day, with a blue tarp thrown over your vessel, odds are that you'll successfully deliver

your contraband.Our investment in ocean exploration, monitoring and law enforcement efforts is at a 20-year low in

the United States and not much better elsewhere. Our chances of quickly finding the missingMalaysian flight would have been improved if we had invested more money and effort on our planet'slast great commons, with observational tools such as in-situ labs and wired benthic observatories,

remote and autonomous underwater vehicles and gliders, forward-looking infrared cameras and

multi-beam shipboard, airborne (and space-deploy

Documents

Mapping Aff & Neg - EnDI 14