TBHA Aff and Neg - Michigan7 2013 ACHM

8/12/2019 TBHA Aff and Neg - Michigan7 2013 ACHM

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Mexican Relations


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1ac mexican relations

Transboundary agreement is critical to guarantee a new era of Mexican relations

Martin* and Wood**, 13 *director of the Energy Program at the Institute of the Americas atthe University of California, San Diego AND **director of the Meico Institute at the !oodro"!ilson International Center for Scholars# $e "or%ed as a &rofessor for '( years in Meico and&reviously "as director of the International )elations Program at the Instituto ecnol+gico

Aut+nomo de Mico -.eremy Martin, , /010'1, 2U#S# Should Act 3uic%ly on rans4oundary$ydrocar4on Agreement !ith Meico5,htt&600"""#"orld&oliticsrevie"#com0articles0&rint0'7871900EM:esterday, U#S# President ;arac% oint &ress conference, s visit to Meico City offered a varied menu of issues such

as trade, education, innovation, North American com&etitiveness and energy# s 4ilateral meeting, the agreement is again under discussion as legislatorsrevive the dormant ratification &rocess, "hich is good ne"s for those eager to see its a&&roval in the U#S# Indeed, according to the!hite $ouse, s national oil com&any, Peme, to e&loit dee&?"ater oil resourcesin the Fulf of Meicoalong the countries maritime 4oundaries# his could &rovide im&ortant o&&ortunities for U#S# com&anies, including eciting ointventure o&&ortunities "ith Peme long thought im&ossi4le# inally, the agreement is relevant and "orthy of attention in 4oth theU#S# and Meico 4ecause of the im&ortant role of Meican oil in the U#S# energy security e=uation, and the im&ortance of the U#S#mar%et for Meican oil e&orts and revenue# During her remar%s at the signing ceremony, Clinton called the agreement &art of acommitment to im&rove energy security for 4oth countries and to ensure safe, efficient, res&onsi4le e&loration of the oil and gas


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reservoirs in the Fulf of Meico# his last &oint has echoed throughout the congressional hearings on the to&ic, "hile mem4ers ofCongress from 4oth &arties and from across the country have focused on the im&ortance of colla4oration "ith our neigh4ors, sharedtechnology and the o&&ortunity to 4oost energy security on 4oth sides of the 4order# he &resident>s visit to Meico and theaccom&anying surge in interest in the agreement &rovide the necessary momentum to facilitate &assage of the 4ill and ta%e the

critical first ste&s to"ard im&lementation#!aiting any longer to do so merely delays the many 4enefitstheagreement has to offer and sends the "rong signal a4out the need for the U#S# and Meico to "or%togetherin the Fulf of Meico, and on energy issues more generally#

Action now is critical to broader Mexican relations and access to oilsenaro, 13 -Al4erto Esenaro, J0(0'1, 23UICK !$IE $shydrocar4ons sector generally tends to 4e negative and &oliticians could very "ell su4mit to the

"ill of the &o&ulace# )e .eff Duncan -)?S#C#9 s&o%e to he $ill recently after a $ouse oreign )elations committeehearing# S&ea%ing a4out energy deals "ith Meico, he said6 2It>s time for the administration to act# All they have to do is send the

enacting legislation over here and let us act on it, 4ecause "e>re sitting on go#>5 %f action by t$e &'(' governmentis not prompt,as mentioned a4ove, Mexico may cancel t$e deal'Meico, for decades, has 4eentotally closed to foreign investments and therans4oundary $ydrocar4onsAgreement, "hich "as negotiated 4yClinton and Calder+n last A&ril, offers U#S# investors a foot in the door# According to e&erts, if action isn>tta%en 4y.uneor .uly of this year,Americans could very "ell lose the o&&ortunity to invest inMeico>s oil industry foreverif the &ro&osed PEMEL reforms do not go through# s not a4out "hat>s good for Meico#> 5

insert im&act from Meican relations fileQ


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)ac aff solves

TA is critical to increased relations, t$e Mexican economy, and stability

+R, 1) -Senate Committee on oreign )elations, '707'0'7, 2


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immediate &assageG U#S# commitment can 4e demonstrated 4y the


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the region leaves o&en the &ossi4ility that they "ill attem&t to attac% the United States,W said Allen, aveteran CIA analyst# Whe threats in this hemis&here are real# !e cannot ignore them#W Added U#S# Drug EnforcementAdministration o&erations chief Michael ;raun6 WIt is not in our interest to let that &ot&ourri of scum to come together#W

/uclear terrorism results in extinctionAyson 12-)o4ert, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for StrategicStudies O Xictoria University of !ellington, 2After a errorist Nuclear Attac%6 EnvisagingCatalytic Effects5, Studies in Conflict and errorism, 11-(9, .uly, Informa!orld9

!ashington>s early res&onse to a terrorist nuclear attac% on its o"n soil might also raise the&ossi4ility of an un"anted -and nuclear aided9 confrontation "ith )ussia and0or China# oream&le, in the noise and confusion during the immediate aftermath of the terrorist nuclearattac%, the U#S# &resident might 4e e&ected to &lace the country>s armed forces, including itsnuclear arsenal, on a higher stage of alert# In such a tense environment, "hen careful &lanningruns u& against the friction of reality, it is ust &ossi4le that Mosco" and0or China mightmista%enly read this as a sign of U#S# intentions to use force -and &ossi4ly nuclear force9 againstthem# In that situation, the tem&tations to &reem&t such actions might gro", although it must

4e admitted that any &reem&tion "ould &ro4a4ly still meet "ith a devastating res&onse# As &art

of its initial res&onse to the act of nuclear terrorism -as discussed earlier9 !ashington mightdecide to order a significant conventional -or nuclear9 retaliatory or disarming attac% against theleadershi& of the terrorist grou& and0or states seen to su&&ort that grou De&ending on the identity and es&ecially the location ofthese targets, )ussia and0or China might inter&ret such action as 4eing far too close for their comfort, and &otentially as aninfringement on their s&heres of influence and even on their sovereignty#


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0il .ependence


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1ac oil dependence

(tatus !uo Mexican imports are declining due to lac" of capital investment and

cooperation t$e result is increased dependence on t$e middle east4ugar 1) -)ichard Bugar, yeah the congressmen, -good luc% "0&olitics9 A MIN


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reaty on the Continental Shelf, "hich called for the United States and Meico to esta4lish a mechanism that trans4oundary oil andgas reserves "ould 4e shared e=uita4ly, according to a Decem4er 7'7 re&ort &re&ared for the U#S# Senates Committee on oreign)elations# At the time, concern that com&anies "ould drain Meican reserves from the United States side of the 4order "asre&ortedly a hot 4utton &olitical issue in Meico# he United States &laced a moratorium on oil and gas e&loration on the U#S# side

of the maritime 4order u&on conclusion of the 7 reaty# ormer Sen# )ichard Bugar-)?Indiana9 last yearurged the


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T$at fuels regional arms racing specifically results in (audi proliferation4uft )229-Fal Buft, eecutive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Flo4al Security, 2De&endence on Middle East Energy and its Im&acton Flo4al Security,5 Institute for the Analysis of Flo4al Security, most recent cited date O 7(,htt&600"""#iags#org0luftTde&endenceTonTmiddleTeastTenergy#&df,9Des&ite the high visi4ility of the Ara4?Israeli conflict, historically, "ars among Muslim countries in the Middle East have caused far 4igger losses in

terms of 4oth 4lood and treasure# Such conflictshave 4een a desta4ili@ing factor for the glo4al energy mar%et# ;oth the Iran?Ira= !ar and the '88Ira=i invasion of Ku"ait caused energy crises "hich "ere follo"ed 4y recessions#In such a com4usti4le environment

fee4le and insecure regimes flus$ wit$ petrodollars feel the need to arm themselves to the teeth,fueling a regional arms race "hichonly contributes tothe general sense of insecurity' his &ro4lem isno" 4eing eacer4ated 4y the dee&ening rift 4et"een Sunnis and Shiites as it e&resses itself in Ira=# !hileSunnis constitute the lion share of the Muslim "orld as a "hole, in the Persian Fulf, Shiites com&rise a (?&ercent maority# his means that the divide

4et"een Sunnis and Shiites "ill inesca&a4ly affect the oil mar%et# Increasing sectarian violence and ina4ility to reach an acce&ta4le "ealth sharingcom&romise is ta%ing a heavy toll on the Ira=i oil industry "ith &rofound im&lications for the glo4al oil mar%et# our years after the U#S#?led invasion,Ira= has not 4een a4le to match its &re?"ar crude &roduction level of 7#/ million 4arrels &er day# Due to non?sto& sa4otage ta%ing &lace in the north,

Ira= "as 4arely a4le to &roduce 7#' million 4arrels &er day in 7R# Perha&s the 4iggest casualtyof a s&illover of Muslim sectarianism"ould 4e Saudi Ara4ia#he eastern &rovince of Saudi Ara4ia is home to most of the Kingdom>s giant oil fields and e&ort terminals# It isalso the home of the 4itter Saudi Shiite minority# Shiites ma%e u& roughly '/ &ercent of Saudi Ara4ia>s &o&ulation of 7/ million# hey are treated assecond?class citi@ens and they har4or strong antagonism against the Kingdom>s !ahha4i esta4lishment "hich considers them heretics# Should anIranian ins&ired Shiite revolt 4rea% out, the damage to the Saudi oil industry and the "orld economy at large could 4e incalcula4le#

(audi proliferation collapses t$e &'(' (ecurity &mbrella in t$e middle east and

allows for terrorist groups to obtain nuclear weaponsMc.owell 3, Bt, US navy, Novem4er 71 -Steven ,2Is Saudi Ara4ia a Nuclear hreat5 Naval Postgrad hesis,htt&600"""#ccc#n&s#navy#mil0research0theses0McDo"ell1#&df?;)!9

he security umbrella provided by t$e &'(' military $as enabled t$e & nited( tates to maintain a level of influence wit$ (audi Arabia , "hich often eercises &redominantinfluence on the glo4al su&&ly of oil# If the Saudis re&lace their CSS?7 missile system "ith a moremodern, nuclear missile system, the region could spiral into a new arms raceat a time "henone of the region>s &rimary &roliferators Ira=Q has 4een su&&ressed#A new arms race could potentiallydestabili:e t$e global supply of oil ;ust as t$e United States and the glo4al economy arere4ounding from the attac%s of Se&tem4er '', 7'# his U#S#?Saudi relationshi& "ould face tremendous strain if the Saudisac=uired a nuclear ca&a4ility# In the event of a cou&, (audi nuclear capability could potentiallyfall into t$e $ands of a new and unstable leaders$ip# In the event of a failed Saudi state follo"inga 2cou& gone "rong,5 the effects "ould 4e even more catastro&hic for the United States and the Fulf region# he &ur&orted

nuclear "ea&ons could also fall into t$e $ands of Al#


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and tem&ted the US administration to &ursue its o"n agenda "ithout regard to considerations of international la", statesovereignty or international &u4lic o&inion# o give its eercise of 4rute force a sem4lance of legality, it came u& "ith its doctrineof &re?em&tive "ars, li%e the one it launched against Ira=# It is 4ecoming increasingly clear that the onset of a uni&olar "orld

system has made the "orld more dangerous &lace, not the o&&osite# he most critical moment "as the one"hen the SovietUnion colla&sed and fragmented into a num4er of inde&endent re&u4lics# he lac% of a centralauthority in a vast nation "ith massive arsenals of nuclear and other "ea&ons of mass destructionraised the nightmare &ros&ect of those "ea&ons falling into the hands of irres&onsi4le &arties"ho "ould

not hesitate to use them# Des&ite the acute contradiction on "hich it "as 4ased, the 4i&olar "orld order "as aninternational system in "hich nations could 4e in a state of conflict 4ut "here they "ere also mem4ersof the United Nations, related to each other via agreements, accords, treaties, etc## that is, through asystem of mutual o4ligations, "hich restricted, to one etent or another, their freedom of action# he disa&&earance ofthe Soviet Union left the field clear not only to the United States at the summit of the glo4al community 4ut to the forces of

international terrorismat its 4ase# hese forces are "aging a "ar on the international system un4ound 4y anyconstraints# It is a war waged by >irresponsible> groups w$o do not expose t$emselves to t$eaccountability of t$e world system, nor to transparency in any form# T$at is w$yterrorism isso difficult to cast light on and can re&resent a greater danger t$an wars waged by regulararmies# During the Cold !ar, the over%ill ca&a4ilities develo&ed 4y the su&er&o"ers allo"ed them to usedeterrence as a device to &revent nuclear conflagrationG there "as a tacit agreement 4et"een them that "hile theycould, and did, engage in 4rin%manshi& 4y threatening to use their "ea&ons of mass destruction, they "ould desist from actually

doing so# In the a4sence of any %ind of &arity 4et"een the &rotagonists in today]s shado"y "ar onterror, mutual deterrence $as been replaced by a &rocess of pre#emption that incites the

enemy to ta%e antici&atory measures# he devastating attac% of '' Se&tem4er 7', "hich claimed nearly 1,victims, is a case in &oint# !hat &rovo%ed the attac% !hy that &articular ty&e of antici&atory 4lo" Is there an e&lanation forthe se=uence of events that 4egan "ith raids against t"o US em4assies in Africa, follo"ed 4y the attac% on an Americandestroyer close to Aden and climaed "ith 80'' It "as a &ractice run for an even more devastating attac% involving nuclear"ea&ons# ;ut if


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s security if its access to oil is vulnera4le to disru&tion and if oil is necessary for o&erating the state>smilitary forces# Xulnera4le energy su&&lies can leave a state o&en to coercionrecogni@ing that it is more li%ely tolose a "ar, the state has a "ea%er 4argaining &osition and is more li%ely to ma%e concessions# RClosely related, if "ar occurs the state is more li%ely to lose# Conflict that is influenced 4y this mechanism is not fundamentallyover the oilG(rather, "hen states already have incentives for conflict, the oil vulnera4ility influences their assessment of military ca&a4ilities and in turnthe &ath to "ar# )ecogni@ing this ty&e of danger during the Cold !ar, U#S# &lanning to &rotect its sea lanes of communication "ith the Persian Fulf "asmotivated &artly 4y the im&ortance of insuring the steady flo" of oil that "as necessary to ena4le the United States to fight a long "ar against the Soviet

Union in Euro&e# During the Second !orld !ar, .a&an>s vulnera4ility to a U#S# oil em4argo &layed an im&ortant role in destroying .a&an>s a4ility tofight#Hhis ty&e of threat to the U#S# military ca&a4ilities is not a serious danger today 4ecause the United States does not face a maor &o"er ca&a4le ofseverely interru&ting its access to %ey su&&lies of oil# In contrast, China does face this ty&e of danger 4ecause its oil im&orts are vulnera4le to disru&tion

4y the U#S# Navy# Protecting access to oil threatens other statesan access?driven security dilemma he vulnera4ility ofa state>s accessto oilsu&&lies could reduceits security viaa second, more com&licated mechanismif the state>s efforts to &rotect its access to oilthreaten another state>s security, then this reduced security could in turn reduce the state>s o"n security# he danger "ould follo" standard

security?dilemma logic,4ut "ith the defense of oil su&&ly lines re&lacing the standard focus on &rotection of territory# In the most etremecase, a state could try to solve its im&ort vulnera4ility through territorial e&ansion# In less etreme cases,the state could deal "ith its vulnera4ility 4y 4uilding u& military forces re=uired to &rotect itsaccess to oil, "hich has the unintended conse=uence ofdecreasing its adversary>s military ca&a4ility and signalingthatthe state>s motives are malign, "hichdecreases the adversary>s security, "hich leads the adversary to 4uild u&its o"n military forces#8.ust as &rotecting a distant ally can re=uire a state to ado&t an offensive ca&a4ility, &rotecting access to oil canre=uire offensive &o"er?&roection ca&a4ilities# hus, a state>s need to &rotect its access to oil could create a security dilemma that "ould not other"ise

eist# Conflict fueled 4y this security dilemmaneed not 4e over oil or access to oilG 4y damaging &olitical relations the security dilemma

could &reventthe states from resolving &olitical dis&utes and avoiding the escalation of crises#$ereagain, the United States does not currently face this ty&e of dangerG this is largely 4ecause the military status =uo currently favors the United States,

"hich relieves it from having to ta%e &rovocative actions# In contrast, China>s efforts to &rotect its access to oil could 4e more &rovocative and generate

military com&etition "ith the United States# s economy

;or a /ll anal)sis o the hen and ho oil dependence lea!es states !/lnerale to coercion, see

ose7ar) 0. Celanic, 6lac: Gold and 6lac:7ail& The Politics o %nternational @il 'oercion $Ph5dissertation, (ni!ersit) o 'hicago, 2*11+.

?;or i7portant eo. 2 $an/ar) 1E?8+, pp. 1?-214 and 'harles F. Glaser, The ec/rit) 5ile77a e!isited,orld Politics, =ol. *, >o. 1 $@ctoer 1EE?+, pp. 1?1-2*1.

1*%n ter7s o argaining theor), see oert Poell,'argaining in the Shadow o" Power$Princeton&

Princeton (ni!ersit) Press, 1EEE+, 'hp. 3.

11;or a generall) s:eptical anal)sis o the standard reso/rce ar arg/7ents see 5a!id G. =ictor, Ahat

eso/rce Aars, (he )ational !nterest$>o!e7er5ece7er 2**?+.

12;or related points, see haer,#nergy Politics, pp. ?-?*, ho identiies additional e


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todays 7#R m4d given e&ected large declines in KM^' ield decline emp$asi:es t$e urgent needfor Mexico to $ave several new pro;ects in t$e pipeline in order to maintain and

boost production'S%e&ticism of PEMELs a4ility to com&ensate for declining fields has led to some dire forecasts# heU#S# Energy Information Administration has estimated that Meico "ill 4e a net im&orter of oil 4y 77,J thus also raisingconcerns a4out im&acts on its 4alance of trade# !hile not investigated on this StaffDel, that situation highlights the need for more

attention to demand management &olicies and continued reform of fuel su4sidies#/ Mexico needs a diverseportfolio of future oil pro;ects "ith staggered ca&acities over time# 5M? leaders $aveidentified suc$ a set of oil development pro;ects, including dee& offshore and the Chiconto&ecunconventional area, each of "hich are com&le underta%ings"ith high &otential, forming a gro"th strategy tocom&lement conventional shallo" offshore &roects and investment in enhanced recovery at &revious "ells# Some o4servers &oint

out that &rivati@ation of the sector "ould4ring com&etition and &rivate investmentG ho"ever, that &ros&ect is soremote as to 4e non?eistent and not under even s&eculative consideration# herefore, t$e !uestion is w$at 5M?can ac$ieve on its own or in partners$ip wit$ international companies' Most interlocutorsare s%e&tical of PEMEL having the ca&ital or e&ertise necessary to develo& dee& offshore fields, and, &ro4a4ly, the unconventionalreserves at Chiconto&ec# Analysts &oint out that PEMEL too% over '/ years and more than 7 "ells to discover the most recent dee&"ater finds# Moreover, dee& "ater re=uires massive investments over many years, and even the "orlds largest international oil

com&anies -I


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-tcf9 of technically recovera4le reserves, although Meico itself uses estimates as lo" as 'J tcf#Much of that shale gas is thought to 4e contained in an etension of the Eagle ord formation that is already &roducing in eas#PEMEL re&ortedly has drilled ust a handful of e&loratory "ells, and "ith &rices 4eing held do"n 4y the United States gas 4oom, ithas little economic incentive to invest heavily in shale in its o"n right, let alone the o&&ortunity cost of that ca&ital com&ared tomuch more lucrative oil# A4sent natural gas &ricing reform, it is unli%ely that PEMEL "ill choose to invest heavily into shale gas#A"areness of shale gas &otential is gro"ing in MeicoG at the time of the authors visit, for eam&le, the Meican government "ashosting a meeting of shale gas e&erts# Many interlocutors "ere carefully "atching shale develo&ments in the United States 4oth interms of direct o4 creation and in "ider economic o&&ortunities for &o"er generation, chemicals, and manufacturing#

Develo&ment of shale could 4e &articularly hel&ful for economic gro"th in Meicos northern4order region#he authors found that develo&ing Meicos shale gas reserves, as "ith technologicallychallenging ne" oil frontiers, "ill re=uire energy reform to galvani@e &rivate investment,technology, and e&ertise#At the same time, an additional level of government ca&acity 4uilding "ill 4e useful to aidofficial understanding in the geology, economics, and environmental &rotections necessary for shale &roduction# he U#S# StateDe&artments Unconventional Fas echnical Engagement Program is "ell &ositioned to ena4le access to needed information, if the

Meican Fovernment chooses to &artici&ate# Most interlocutors "ere o&timistic that gas reforms to allo" &rivateinvestment "ould come to fruition 4ecause natural gas is generally regarded to 4e less &oliticallysensitive than oil# he most common fear of such a reform e&ressed 4y interlocutors "as that if gas reform &assed se&aratelythan oil reform, it could stunt momentum for the latter# Moreover, it is highly unli%ely that a successful naturalgas reform could 4e com&letely delin%ed from oil# ;ased on the U#S# e&erience, much of the &rofita4ility of shalegas comes from associated high?value li=uids co?&roduced "ith the gas, so it seems unli%ely that significant &rivate ca&ital "ill flo"if li=uids are not dealt "ith in reform#


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)ac plan solves

TA is "ey to relieving oil dependence4ugar, 1) U#S# Senator -)ichard F# Bugar, '707'0'7, 2


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)ac at s$ale solves

.oesn6t solveMallet, 13 Partner in the Arra%is Frou&, a &rivate energy consulting firm, ;#Sc# in ChemicalEngineering from MI and M;A from Stanford University-Xictor Mallet, /0'R0'1, 2Shale Fas _oreign s highest volume chemical, used to ma%eeverything from toys to clothes to car tires9, and even the steel industry is feeling the &ositive im&act# Serious environmentalconcerns such as contamination of ground"ater a=uifers and induced seismic activity -mini earth=ua%es9 still need to 4e =uantifiedand addressed -my colleague Frant McDermott has "ritten a4out some of this here9# rac%ing is far from a &erfect techni=ue for

&rimary energy etraction, and documentaries such as .osh o>s FasBand are immensely im&ortant in dra"ing &u4lic attention tothe &otential dangers and ma%ing sure there are ade=uate safety regulations to &revent "hat seems li%e an early "ild "est era of

shale gas drilling from destroying America>s "ater"ays# Shale gas and tight oil "ill not decou&le America fromthe rest of the "orld# he 4igger story is that "ith ne"found chea& shale gas America may finally have "hat it ta%es to chasea"ay the looming ghosts of an ongoing domestic recession and the s&ecter of lost industrial dominance# hat should 4e enough to=uiet even the most adamant energy ha"%s#
http://theenergycollective.com/victormallet/225651/shale-gas-foreign-oil-how-realistic-us-energy-independence-natural-gashttp://theenergycollective.com/victormallet/225651/shale-gas-foreign-oil-how-realistic-us-energy-independence-natural-gashttp://theenergycollective.com/victormallet/225651/shale-gas-foreign-oil-how-realistic-us-energy-independence-natural-gashttp://theenergycollective.com/victormallet/225651/shale-gas-foreign-oil-how-realistic-us-energy-independence-natural-gas


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nergy .iplomacy


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1ac energy diplomacy

)etirement of Secretary Clinton has &ut an end to efforts at energy di&lomacy ? all current

&roect are li& service7eman 1)- Clinton6 Energy di&lomacy central to US foreign &olicy ;y ;en Feman ? '0'H0'7 86JR AM Ehtt&600thehill#com04logs0e7?"ire0e7?"ire07R7(7(?clinton?energy?central?&art?of?di&lomacy?foreign?&olicy`i@@7aAycRF O;)!9

Secretary of State $illary Clinton "ill ma%e the case hursday that 2energy di&lomacy5 is central to U#S# foreign&olicy# he !all Street .ournal got a loo% at the s&eech that Clinton "ill give hursday afternoon at Feorgeto"n University#2oday, energy cuts across the entirety of U#S# foreign &olicy # It is a matter of national securityand glo4al sta4ility# It is at the heart of the glo4al economy #Its an issue of democracy and human rights,5Clinton intends to say,the &a&er re&orted# 2It has 4een a to& concern of mine as secretary# And it issure to 4e the same for the net secretary of State#5 Clinton is 2e&ected to stress the role that U#S# energy &roduction, cou&led "ith

U#S# di&lomatic efforts, has &layed in ratcheting u& sanctions on Iran,5 the .ournal re&orts# Clinton, "ho has said she "illnot serve a second term even if President


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Ministers together for regular meetings than Secretaries of State# heir staff should 4e e&anded and serious &rogram 4udget

esta4lished to ma%e our coo&eration more than rhetorical# or true reform to 4e achieved, foreign ministers andheads of government "ill have to 4e involved , as this "ill 4e the %ey to integrating energy security intoforeign &olicy# T$e t$ree countries t$at need robust attention at t$is time are Mexico,-ra:il and Bene:uela# Meico is considering maor reforms and "e have much "e can share at a technical level on gasmar%ets, unconventional oil and gas technology, safe regulation of the dee&"ater, and energy efficiency# !e should create a=uiet

4ilateral mechanism for sharing this information "ith Meican ministries, its nascent regulator andPEMEL# Changing glo4al mar%ets also im&act ;ra@il, and "e should ensure that the Strategic Energy Dialogue isreactivated as soon as ne" officials are on 4oard at the De&artment of Energy# Xene@uela is tric%ier 4ecause it is in &oliticaltransition and there is a great deal of rhetorical hostility# ;ut the US had a technical dialogue "ith Xene@uela that lasted over 1years# !e need to %no" the ne" officials at the Ministry and PdXSA and to share our vie" of mar%et realities, even if "e may notagree on them# Sometime in 7'1, after the Xene@uelan elections, this technical dialogue should 4e revived, &erha&s at the AssistantSecretary, or De&uty Assistant Secretary level#

!e have t"o scenarios

irst is the Economy

S&ecifically hydrocar4on engagement acts as a Starting &oint for Energy di&lomacy O this is asta4ili@ing mechanism for transitioning energy 4ased economies 4ecause it acts as a 4ridge fuelOta%es out relations lin%s and solves commodity insta4ility "hich is %ey to 4roader economicgro"thormats 13-!hy Flo4al Energy Di&lomacy Matters ;y )o4ert D# $ormats hursday, A&ril 7/, 7'1 )o4ert D# $ormats"as s"orn in as the U#S# Under Secretary of State on Se&tem4er 71, 78# Mr# $ormats "as formerly vice chairman of FoldmanSachs -International9# ;efore oining Foldman Sachs, he served as Assistant Secretary of State for Economic and ;usiness Affairsfrom '8H' to '8H7, Am4assador and De&uty U#S# rade )e&resentative from '8(8 to '8H', and Senior De&uty Assistant Secretary forEconomic and ;usiness Affairs at the De&artment of State from '8(( to '8(8# Mr# $ormats has 4een a visiting lecturer at PrincetonUniversity and served on the ;oard of Xisitors at ufts Universitys letcher School of Ba" and Di&lomacy and the Deans Council at$arvards Kennedy School of Fovernment# $e is also a mem4er of the Council on oreign )elations# O;)!9

Americas gro"ing energy self?sufficiency raises a num4er of geo?&olitical and geo?economic=uestions, says the State De&artments )o4ert D# $ormats# hese develo&ments &resent enormouso&&ortunitiesnot ust for strengthening the U#S# economy and reducing U#S# financial outflo"s, 4ut also for ena4ling theUnited States to &ursue ne" %inds of energy di&lomacy# he "orlds ne" energy geogra&hy and

increased American self?sufficiency should not 4e seen in the United Statesor a4roadasforeshado"ing, or ustifying, an American &ull4ac% from the rest of the "orld # he "orlds ne" energygeogra&hy and increased American self?sufficiency should not 4e seen in the United Statesor a4roadas foreshado"ing, or

ustifying, an American &ull4ac% from the rest of the "orld# Energy shortages, &rice volatility or disru&tionsany"here can threaten economic gro"th every"here #!e "ant to "or% "ith &artici&ants in this ne" geogra&hyof energy our traditional &artners &lus maor emerging economies to hel&vital goals# he most&rominent ones among them are to ensure sta4ility and trans&arency in energy mar%ets, the develo&mentof alternative fuels , freedom of navigation and good environmental &ractices # he United States hasseenand "ill continue to seeglo4al energy security, mar%et efficiency, sta4ility and coo&eration to 4e in our economic, foreign

&olicy and national security interests# ;ut the United States cannot successfully guarantee glo4al energysecurity, efficiency and mar%et sta4ility on its o"n# his is es&ecially true today, "ith so many ne" or ra&idly gro"ing &layers,"ho account for ever?increasing amounts of the energy consum&tion and &roduction#


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&rice li4erali@ation as "ell as meaningful anti?mono&oly la"s and regulations have led to greater energy security andmore efficient mar%ets#As the U#S# ta%es advantage of o&&ortunities from the glo4al gas revolution, "ecannot sto& strengthening environmental standards# his has hel&ed these mar%ets overcome &ast rigidities, distortions and

&otential &olitical leverage# AsAsian governments"eigh their o&tions, they find that their economies no" havemany com&etitive o&tions#hese include &i&eline gas from Eurasia and BNF im&orts from Australiaand other &arts of Asia, 3atar and North Americato fulfill their gro"ing demand for naturalgas#


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conomic collapse incentivi:es war and conflict t$is inevitably goes nuclearRoyal, 12, director of Coo&erative hreat )eduction at the U#S# De&artment of Defense, 7' -.edediah, Economics of !ar andPeace6 Economic, Begal, and Political Pers&ectives, &g 7'1?7'/, ?;)!9Bess intuitive is ho" &eriods of economic decline may increase the li%elihood of eternal conflict# Political science literature hascontri4uted a moderate degree of attention to the im&act of economic decline and the security and defense 4ehavior of

interde&endent states# )esearch in this vein has 4een considered at systemic, dyadic and national levels# Several nota4lecontri4utions follo"# irst, on the systemic level, Pollins -7H9 advances Models%i and hom&son>s -'88R9 "or% onleadershi& cycle theory, finding that rhythms in the global economy are associated wit$ t$e riseand fall of a pre#eminent power and t$e oftenbloody transition from one pre#eminent leader to t$e next# As such, eogenous shoc%ssuch as economic crises could usher in aredistri4ution of relative &o"er-see also Fil&in, '8H'9 that leads to uncertainty a4out &o"er

4alances, increasing the risk of miscalculation -earon '88/9# Alternatively, even a relatively certainredistri4ution of &o"er could lead to a permissive environment for conflicts as arising power may see" to c$allenge a declining power -!erner, '8889# Se&arately, Pollins -'88R9also sho"s that glo4al economic cycles com4ined "ith &arallel leadershi& cycles im&act the li%elihood of conflict among maor,medium and small &o"ers, although he suggests that the causes and connections 4et"een glo4al economic conditions andsecurity conditions remains un%no"n# Second, on a dyadic level, Co&eland>s -'88R, 79 theory of trade e&ectations suggest

that 2future e&ectation of trade5 is a significant varia4le in understanding economic

conditions and security 4ehavior of states# $e argues that interde&endent states are li%ely to gain &acific 4enefitsfrom trade so long as they have an o&timistic vie" of future trade relations# $o"ever, if the e&ectations of futuretrade decline, particularly for difficult to replace item suc$ as energy resources ,t$e li"eli$ood for conflict increases, as states will be inclined to use force to gainaccess to t$ose resources'Crises could potentially be the trigger for decreased tradeexpectations either on its own or because it triggers protectionist moves by interdependentstates. hird, ot$ers $ave considered t$e lin" between economic decline andexternal armed conflict at a national level' -lomberg and ess C)22)@ find astrong correlation between internal conflict and external conflict, &articularly during&eriods of economic do"nturn# hey "rite, he lin%ages 4et"een internal and eternal conflict and &ros&erity are strong and

mutually reinforcing# Economic conflict tends to s&a"n internal conflict, "hich in turn returns thefavor# Moreover, the &resence of a recession tends to am&lify the etent to "hichinternational and eternal conflicts self?reinforce each other# -;lom4erg and $ess, 77, H89

Economic decline has also 4een lin%ed "ith an increase in t$e li"eli$ood of terrorismC-lomberg, ess and Weerapana, )22=@, w$ic$ $as t$e capacity to spill across

borders and lead to external tensions# urthermore, crises generally reduce the&o&ularity of a sitting government# 2Diversionary theory5 suggests that,w$en facingunpopularity arising from economic decline , sitting governments $aveincreased incentives to fabricate external military conflicts to create a 8rallyaround t$e flagD effect# !ang -'88R9, De)ouen -'88/9 and ;lom4erg, $ess and hac%er -7R9 find su&&ortingevidence sho"ing that economic decline and use of force are at least indirectly correlated# Fel&i -'88(9, Miller -'8889, and

Kisangani and Pic%ering -789 suggest that the tendency to"ards diversionary tactics are greater fordemocratic states than autocratic states due to the fact the democratic leaders are generallymore susce&ti4le to 4eing removed from office due to lac% of domestic su&&ort # De De)ouen-79 has &rovided evidence sho"ing that &eriods of "ea% economic &erformance in the United States and thus "ea%Presidential &o&ularity are statically lin%ed to an increase in the use of force# In summary, recent economic scholarshi&

&ositively correlates economic integration "ith an increase in the fre=uency of economic crises, "hereas &olitical sciencescholarshi& lin%s economic decline "ith eternal conflict at systemic, dyadic and national levels# his im&lied connection4et"een integration, crises and armed conflict has not featured &rominently in economic?security de4ate and deserves moreattention# his o4servation is not contradictory to other &ers&ectives that lin% economic interde&endence "ith a decrease in theli%elihood of eternal conflict, such as those mentioned in the first &aragra&h of this cha&ter# hose studies tend to focus ondyadic interde&endence instead of glo4al interde&endence and do not s&ecifically consider the occurrence of and conditionscreated 4y economic crises# As such the vie" &resented here should 4e considered ancillary to those vie"s#


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Additionally it is reverse causal O increased economic gro"th ma%es "ar o4solete and acts as anim&act filter to your disadvantages

.eudney, E, -A E! :EA)S BAE) $E C$ANFED $IS MIND A;


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tem&orary asylum re=uest su4mitted 4y his la"yer uesday, claimed he faces &ersecution from the U#S# government and could facetorture or death# Andre" Kuchins, director of the )ussia &rogram at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the!hite $ouse>s cancellation threat could 4e effective leverage over Putin, "ho li%ely "ants to avoid an em4arrassment on the "orldstage# 2!hen the s&otlight of the "orld is on him and )ussia, he doesn>t "ant that s&otlight to reveal a lot of negative things "hich

are going to 4e distractions,5 Kuchins said# Pulling the &lug on the U#S#?)ussia tal%s "ould dee&en thetensions 4et"een the t"o leaders#And it would li"ely ma"e it even more difficult for t$etwo countries to find common ground on areas of disagreement t$at plague t$e

relations$ip ' he U#S# accuses )ussia of &roviding military su&&ort to Assad that has allo"ed him to cling to &o"er duringmore than t"o years of clashes "ith re4els see%ing to overthro" his government# he U#S# dee&ly angered )ussia earlier this year"hen it announced sanctions against 'H )ussians as &art of a la" named after Sergei Magnits%y, a )ussian la"yer "ho "as arrestedin 7H for ta evasion after accusing )ussian &olice officials of stealing V71 million in ta re4ates# )ussia also announced last yearthat it "as 4anning U#S# ado&tions of )ussian children, a move seen as a retaliation for the Magnits%y act, &assed last year# re actually losing so much out of the cancellation of thesummit 4ecause "e didn>t e&ect to get much out of it#5 Some U#S# la"ma%ers are calling on s energy e&orts give it international clout, the current develo&ment and e&ort modelhas created a dynamic that has undermined trust and at times created counter&roductiveoutcomes"ith4oth CIS and EU countries#he changing eternal environment and &ressures todevelo& ne" )ussian sources of oil and gas &roduction may force changes# )ussia may 4e&ushed to run its energy sector more efficiently "ith greater foreign investment, closer relations "ithforeign &artners and increased mutual mar%et access# If this ha&&ens, )ussia might develo& a =ualitatively differentenergy?4ased influence across a much "ider area# Energy is a mainstay of )ussia>s foreign &olicy and an essentialsource of its current &olitical &o"er &roection and international &restige# ' !ithout its a4ility to &roduce and su&&ly energy, )ussia"ould not have the status it has today# It "ould not have the same influence as a FH mem4er, it "ould not command the attention ofthe United States as it does, and it "ould not have the same &rivileged relations "ith several leading Euro&ean Union countries,

nota4ly Fermany# It "ould also 4e of less interest to China# )ussia has the "orld>s largest natural gas reserves,the second largest coal reserves and seventh largest oil reserves# It is the largest e&orter of natural gas, andsince 78 has &eriodically overta%en Saudi Ara4ia as the "orld>s largest oil &roducer# It currently su&&lies around 1[ of the oiland 7/[ of the gas that the EU consumes, and is also a signifi cant glo4al force in the nuclear &o"er industry# )ussia>s use of energy

resources as a source of &o"er &roection reflects a change over the &ast 7 years that has seen a significant decline in em&hasis onthe role of nuclear "ea&ons# rom the late '8Rs, "hen the USS) 4ecame an increasingly im&ortant oil and gas su&&lier to "esternEuro&e, and u& to the end of the Soviet &eriod, energy rela tions had a different &lace in Mosco">s foreign &olicy# A sym4ol ofreduced &olitical tensions, they &rovided a source of hard currency for the USS) and an im&ortant tool of commercial engagement,

&articularly "ith !est Fermany# or the USS) to have used them for &olitical &ur&oses in a system of mutual restraint im&osed4y nuclear "ea&ons "ould have desta4ili@ed security relations "ith the !est and damaged the Soviet economy# No"that )ussia>s &o"er derivesfar less from military power than in the days of the USS), energyrelations are a different and much more flei4le tool of influence #In 4road terms, they serve as6 @a source of economic attraction for neigh4ours and &artners, @ a significant factor in 4ilateral relations "ith neigh 4ours that can 4e traded for economic and &olitical 4enefit and sometimes ta%es the form of coercion, and @ a means of
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achieving economic and &olitical influence through non?traditional and sometimes non?trans &arentmechanisms# )ussia>s energy relations can 4e used in different "ays to eert influence atdifferent levels of intensity# heir influ ence is strongest in the Common"ealth of Inde&endentStates -CIS9 4ut it etends far into Euro&e too# here is &ronounced influence in some EUcountries, &articularly Fermany and some ne" mem4er states "hose de&end ence on )ussianenergy su&&lies develo&ed during Soviet times on the 4asis of Soviet?4uilt infrastructure and

favoura4le &ricing arrangements Since coming to &o"er Xladimir Putin has sho"n considera4le s%ill at integrating foreign &olicy and energy &olicy to leverage )ussia>s advantage 4oth asa holder of hydro car4on resources and as a very im&ortant and ca&a4le &roducer in its o"nright# $is understanding of 4oth areas of &olicy and their overla& has made him a difficultnegotiating &artner for Euro&ean leaders# No !estern leader has a level of %no"ledge of theinternational energy 4usiness com&ara4le to Putin>s, 4ased on his strong interest in Fa@&rom#he )ussian understanding of the overla& 4et"een its energy and foreign &olicies "as reflectedin the 71 Energy Strategy, "hich noted that )ussia>s significant energy resources and&o"erful fuel?energy com&le> "as an instrument for conducting domestic and foreign &olicy>and that the role of the country on glo4al energy mar%ets to a great degree deter mines itsgeo&olitical influence># 7 rom 7J )ussia 4enefited from a steady increase in the glo4al oil&rice that transformed its international &osition and fuelled a level of economic gro"th that "as

unimagi na4le in the late '88s# his &rofoundly changed the attitude of )ussia>s leadersto"ards neigh4ours and &artners# !hen Putin 4ecame &rime minister in '888 the &rice of ;rentcrude "as ust under V'H a 4arrel# In .uly 7H it hit V'J(# here "as over?enthusiastic tal% ofFa@&rom 4ecoming a trillion?dollar com&any and the 4iggest cor&oration in the "orld# hiscoincided "ith a &ea% in )ussian foreign &olicy influence, demonstrated 4y Putin>s outs&o%en&erformance at the NA< Summit in ;ucharest in 7H, follo"ed 4y )ussia>s incursion intoFeorgia a fe" months later# In a matter of months this "ildly o&timistic &rognosis a4outFa@&rom came 4ac% to haunt )ussia>s leaders# !ith the glo4al economic crisis, the &rice of oilhad dro&&ed to 4elo" VJ/ 4y Decem4er 7H# his e&osed as hollo" the 4elief of many of)ussia>s economic &olicy?ma%ers that the country "as a safe haven># his a4ru&t change ineconomic fortunes, al4eit"ithout a &rolonged crisis at home, tem&ered )ussia>s a&&roach to itsuse of energy in its foreign relations#No"here is this more visi4le than in the area of gas e&orts,4y far themost &o"erful element of )ussia>s energy influence# Fa@&rom>s cash?flo" situation in 7' "as very far from "hat it "as in 7H#

Am4itions for do"nstream ac=uisitions and gro"th have 4een scaled 4ac% in line "ith investments in ca&ital e&enditure# 1 At thesame time, there have 4een &rofound changes in the structure of the Euro&ean gas mar%et, "hich is the source of roughly t"o?thirdsof Fa@&rom>s revenues from the sales of one?third of its &roduction# Fa@&rom is dis&ro &ortionately de&endent on the Euro&ean gas

mar%et# !ith ur%ey included, it accounts for over 8/[ of Fa@&rom>s non?CIS e&orts# s &artners such as E#oN, )!E and Fasunie have seentheir 4usiness models come under ne" &ressures and have 4een forced to ada&t to the changing realities# In short, Fa@&rom faces amuch more uncertain situation in Euro&e as com&etition from other sources &uts &ressure on &rices# Several maor Euro&ean 4uyersof )ussian gas have negoti ated discounts on their long?term contracts in res&onse to lo"er s&ot &rices# Fa@&rom is understanda4lyconcerned at the erosion of the traditional model in "hich guaranteed demand from Euro&ean customers under&inned u&streaminvestments# he limited diversity of sources to the Euro&ean mar%et effectively gave Fa@&rom and its esta4lished &artners theo&&ortunity to restrict the su&&ly of gas to the Euro&ean mar%et and %ee& &rices high# U& to 7(0H Fa@&rom>s Euro&eancustomers "ere =ueuing u& to etend their longterm contracts amid concerns a4out long?term gas su&&ly to the Euro&ean mar%et#his &eriod may &rove to have 4een a high?"ater mar% of )ussian influence on Euro&ean energy &olicy# According to the )ussian

Energy Strategy to 71 , )ussia "ill devote more effort to increasing mar%et share for itshydrocar4ons -including &i&eline gas and BNF9 in Asia than in Euro&e, 4ecause Euro&e is regarded as a


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mature mar%et for gas# J o maintain its mar%et &osition in Euro&e, Fa@&rom "ill have to com&ete "ith a range of other sources# Atthe same time, it "ill &ursue asset s"a&s "ith Euro&ean com&anies to strengthen its do"nstream &osition to secure demand andetract additional rent# / )ising confidence encourages )ussia>s use of the energy card )ising &rices in the early &art of the lastdecade, coin ciding "ith concerns a4out future energy 4alances, gave )ussia a s&ring4oard to re?esta4lish its &osition as a maor&o"er# E&ort revenues aside, foreign countries 4egan to vie" )ussia differently 4y virtue of its a4undance of oil and gas reservesand its record of su&&ly to glo4al mar%ets# It is fair to say that if )ussia had not 4oosted its oil &roduction from 71, the glo4aleconomy "ould not have 4een a4le to co&e "ith the increased demand from the Asian economies# In this res&ect, )ussia made avery significant contri4ution to glo4al energy security, "hich "as em&hasi@ed 4y its FH chairmanshi& in 7R# his reflected

recognition 4y the )ussian leadershi& that it held an im&ortant card "hich no other country could match# )ussia>s leaders alsosa" that the country"as a4le to use its energy influence to strengthenits &ositions in the CIS and forge a ne"ty&e of relationshi& "ith the EU and the United States # he energy dialogues esta4lished "ith the EU-79 and United States -719 4ore little fruit, 4ut )ussia had discovered that energy coo&eration "ashighly attractive to a num4er ofEuro&ean governments and could 4e used to influence theirrelations "ith )ussia# he EU>s difficulty in finding a single voice> to deal "ith )ussia on energy issues is testimony toMosco">s di&lo matic achievements# It offered !estern governments adeal6 invest in the )ussian energy sectoraccording to our rules and in return allo" )ussian energy com&anies to invest in your countries# he energy consultancy CE)A has

descri4ed this as )ussia>s 4ar4ell strategy>6Euro&ean investment in )ussia>s u&stream "ith )ussian &artici&a tion in theEuro&ean do"nstream connected 4y &i&eline# R It is fair to say that )ussia is still learning to 4alance energy among its foreign &olicyinstruments# )ecent history sho"s that as a source of influence, energy resources can 4e easily overused# As a result, they can re&elas "ell as attract# heir ca&acity to create counter&roductive outcomes for )ussia has 4een &articularly visi4le among EU countriesfollo"ing the gas crises of 7R and 78 4et"een )ussia and U%raine# In terms of foreign investment, )ussia is still trying to4alance its needs "ith its desire for control, as demonstrated 4y the 7H Ba" on oreign Investment in Strategic Sectors, "hich

hardly offers a red car&et to foreign energy com&anies# In the case of China, energy resources have &resented a dilemma for )ussia6to su&&ly or not Des&ite a firm inten tion e&ressed in 7R 4y President Putin to su&&ly ( 4illion cu4ic metres a year of &i&elinegas to the Chinese mar%et 4eginning in 7'', and an a4undance of gas reserves in East Si4eria, )ussia still a&&ears hesitant a4outesta4lishing gas coo&eration "ith China# here are some grounds to 4elieve that Fa@&rom has 4een reluctant to commit gas volumesfrom East Si4eria to China for fear that they might 4e needed to 4ac%fill the gas su&&ly system else"here in )ussia# Nevertheless,over recent years Fa@&rom senior eecu tives have occasionally raised the &ros&ect of diverting the focus of )ussian gas e&orts fromEuro&e to China 4ecause of changing EU regulations# At &resent, the &ros&ects for oil e&orts are much 4etter6 a s&ur from )ussia>sEastern Si4eriaOPacific s interest in e&loiting energy resources to access arange of foreign mar%ets# he &icture is diverse since )ussia>s energy sector remains tightly integrated "ith the CIS and ;altic countries through shared infrastructure from Soviet days# !hile this gives it a significant lever in relations "ith some of these countries,)ussia also relies on ;elarus, U%raine and Estonia for access to its foreign mar%ets# Interest in commercial o&&ortunities "ith)ussian com&anies 4oth inside and outside the country has encour aged a range of leading international energy com&anies to invest

in the )ussian energy sector# Russia $as an interest in attracting "orld?class com&anies to "or% in

&artner shi& "ith it to develo& its resource 4ase and to 4enefit from investment and transfers oftechnology and s%ills# his has already 4rought some significant 4enefits at home# he offshore Sa%halin develo&ments"ould not have 4een &ossi4le "ithout EonMo4il and Shell# !estern com&anies> interests inevita4ly 4ecome &art of theirgovernments> considerations in a&&roaching )ussia# here is no 4etter eam&le than Fermany, "here there has 4een little change insu4stance 4et"een Chancellor Ferhard Schrbder>s handling of )ussia and that of his successor, Angela Mer%el, des&ite their verydifferent &olitical &ositions# ;oth have su&&orted the contentious Nord Stream &i&eline &roect that "ill 4y&ass ;elarus, Poland andU%raine to 4ring )ussian gas directly to Fermany# ;oth have 4ac%ed the e&ansion of coo& eration 4et"een Ferman and )ussianenergy com&anies# ;oth have tried to limit restrictions on asset ac=uisi tions 4y )ussian energy com&anies in EU countries and, todifferent degrees, have soft?&edalled concerns a4out )ussia>s &olitical direction and 4ehaviour in its &eri&hery# At the same time,Fermany>s E#oN )uhrgas and ;AS0 !intershall have dee&ened "hat are the closest relation shi&s "ith Fa@&rom among Euro&eancom&anies, 4uilt u& over decades "ith considera4le s%ill and &ersistence#


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And, sustained &'('#Russian relations are vital to preventing nuclear war and de#escalating global conflict

Allison F -lac"will, 611Fraham, director of the ;elfer Center for Science and International Affairs at $arvard>sKennedy School, former assistant secretary of defense in the Clinton administration, )o4ert D#, $enry A# Kissinger senior fello" forU#S# foreign &olicy ?? Council on oreign )elations, served as U#S# am4assador to India and as de&uty national security adviser forstrategic &lanning in the ;ush administration, 4oth co?chairmen of the as% orce on )ussia and U#S# National Interests, co?

s&onsored 4y the ;elfer Center and the Center for the National Interest, '?1?'' Politico, 2' reasons "hy )ussia still matters,5htt&600dyn#&olitico#com0&rintstory#cfmuuidZ'R'E7H7?(78?JDJH?H;8C?C/;118RCAERQ

hat central &oint is that )ussia matters a great deal to a U#S#government see%ing to defend and advance itsnational interests#Prime Minister Xladimir Putin>s decision to return net year as &resident ma%es it all the more critical for!ashington to manage its relationshi& "ith )ussia through coherent, realistic &olicies# No one denies that )ussia is adangerous, difficult, often disa&&ointing state to do 4usiness "ith# !e should not overloo% its many human rights and legal

failures# Nonetheless, )ussia is a &layer "hose choices affect our vital interests in nuclear security andenergy' %t is "ey to supplying 122,222 &'(' troops fig$ting in Afg$anistan and preventing%ran from ac!uiring nuclear weapons' en realities re=uire U#S# &olicyma%ers to advance our nation>s interests4y engaging and "or%ing "ith Mosco"# irst, )ussia remains t$e only nation t$at can erase t$e & nited( tates from t$e map in 32 minutes 'As every &resident since .ohn # Kennedy has recogni@ed, Russiascooperation is critical to averting nuclear war . Second, )ussia is our most conse!uential partner inpreventing nuclear terrorism' T$roug$ a com4ination of more than V'' 4illion in U#S# aid, &rovided throughthe Nunn?Bugar Coo&erative hreat )eduction &rogram,and im&ressive )ussian &rofessionalism, t"o decades

after the colla&se of the2evil em&ire,5 not one nuclear "ea&on has 4een found loose#hird, Russia playsan essential role in preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons and missile?delivery systems# As

!ashington see%s to sto& Iran>s drive to"ard nuclear "ea&ons, )ussian choices to sell or "ithholdsensitive technologies are the difference 4et"een failure and the &ossi4ility of success# ourth, )ussiansu&&ort in s$aring intelligence and cooperating in operations remains essential to the U.S.war to destroy Al aeda and combat other transnational terrorist groups .ifth, )ussia &rovides a vitalsu&&ly line to ', U#S# troo&s fighting in Afghanistan# As U#S# relations "ith Pa%istan havedeteriorated, the )ussian lifeline has gro"n ever more im&ortant and no" accounts for half all dailydeliveries# Sith, )ussia is the "orld>s largest oil &roducer and second largest gas &roducer# s im&act at our gas&um&s#Seventh, Mosco" is an im&ortant &layer in today>s international system# It is no accident that)ussia is one of the five veto?"ielding, &ermanent mem4ers of the U#N# Security Council, as "ell as a

mem4er of the F?H and F?7# A Moscow more closely aligned wit$ &'(' goals would besignificant in the balance of power to sha&e an environment in "hich China can emerge as a glo4al&o"er wit$out overturning t$e existing order' Eighth, )ussia is the largest country on Earth 4yland area, a4utting China on the East, Poland in the !est and the United States across the Arctic# histerritory &rovides transit corridors for su&&lies to glo4al mar%ets "hose sta4ility is vital to the U#S#economy#Ninth, )ussia>s 4rain&o"er is reflected in the fact that it has "on more No4el Pri@es for science than all of Asia,&laces first in most math com&etitions and dominates the "orld chess masters list# he only "ay U#S# astronauts can no" travelto and from the International S&ace Station is to hitch a ride on )ussian roc%ets# he co?founder of the most advanced digital

com&any in the "orld, Foogle, is )ussian?4orn Sergei ;rin# enth, Russias potential as a spoiler is difficult toexaggerate. Consider "hat a )ussian &resident intent on frustrating U#S# international o4ectivescould do from sto&&ing the su&&ly flo" to Afghanistan to selling S?1 air defense missiles toehran to oining China in &reventing U#N# Security Council resolutions#So net time you hear a&olicyma%er dismissing )ussia "ith rhetoric a4out 2"ho cares5 as% them to identify nations thatmatter more to U#S# success, or failure, in advancing our national interests#


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)ac solves energy diplo

(trengt$ening oil sector development is "ey to development of energy governanceand cooperation

+e"uta 13 -)o4ert # Ce%uta Princi&al De&uty Assistant Secretary, ;ureau of Energy )esources s oldest oilsectors, "ith &roduction stretching 4ac% into the mid?'Hs, it also contains si@a4le undiscovered oil and gas resources and

&roduction &otential, &articularly in the dee& "ater# he o&&ortunities for&otentially massive additional revenuefrom these resources arevery &romising,4ut "e have to recogni@e instances of conflict and human rights a4uses associated"ith the etractive industries ma%e sound energy sector governance and trans&arency a &riority for our4ilateral engagement# In order to hel& sha&e the dee&"ater licensing round no" under"ay, last Decem4er the StateDe&artment, under the aus&ices of our Energy ;ureau>s Energy Fovernance and Ca&acity Initiative -EFCI9 hosted the Ministers ofEnergy and of Mines, as "ell as the Managing Director of the state?o"ned hydrocar4on com&any, M


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o&timi@e this resource# he U#S# government, therefore, is "or%ing "ith the !orld ;an% and the AsianDevelo&ment ;an% to develo& &o"er sector and rural electrification investment &lans , in coordination "iththe UN>s Sustaina4le Energy for All initiative# It is our &rofound ho&e that the gas that your com&anies "ill find and develo& "ill not

only ma%e your investments "orth"hile, 4ut "ill also hel& &o"er a more inclusive and self?sustaining electrical&o"er grid "ithin the country he State De&artment and Em4assy are here to assist and &artner "ith the country in order to actu&on the ne" and eciting o&&ortunities that are 4eing generated through the ongoing &olitical and economic reforms#Fovernments, the &rivate sector, and most im&ortantly the &eo&le "ill 4enefit from sound, sustaina4le develo&ment of the countrys

hydrocar4on resources# In the com&le and ne" environment 4efore us, it is critically im&ortant that "e thin% ho"4est to &artner to ensure sta4ility and hel& achieve &ros&erity in the years to come# U#S#investors, &roducers, su&&ly com&anies come "ith unmatched e&erience, technological %no"?ho", creativity and driveG they come "ith a record of achievement and success in dealing "ith challenges in the energysector around the "orld# hey are interested in 4ringing this e&erience, this e&ertise, this s&irit to hel& Myanmar and its &eo&le

ca&ture the 4enefits of the countrys resources# here are great o&&ortunities for mutual 4enefit, and I %no" theU#S# com&anies here "ill do their due diligence and invest res&onsi4ly for the &ros&erity of all of the &eo&le, restoring the country toits traditional role at the crossroads 4et"een East and South Asia#


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)ac impact filter

nergy .iplomacy is an impact filterGit6s reverse casual and prevents t$e

escalation of conflict+linton 1) former Secretary of State -$illary )odham Clinton, 2 Energy Di&lomacy in the 7'st Century5 s foreign &olicyfor three fundamental reasons# irst, itrests at the core of geo&olitics, 4ecause fundamentally, energy is an issue of "ealth and &o"er, "hichmeans it can 4e 4oth a source of conflict and coo&eration# he United States has an interest inresolving dis&utes over energy, %ee&ingenergy su&&lies and mar%ets sta4lethrough all manner of glo4alcrises, ensuring that countries don>t use their energy resourcesor &roimity to shi&&ing routes to forceothers to 4end to their "illor forgive their 4ad 4ehavior, anda4ove all, ma%ing sure that the American &eo&le>saccess to energy is secure, relia4le, afforda4le, and sustaina4le# Second, energy is essential toho" "e "ill &o"er our economy and manage our environment in the 7'st century# !e therefore havean interest in &romoting ne" technologies and sources of energy O es&ecially including rene"a4les O to reduce &ollution, to diversify

the glo4al energy su&&ly, to create o4s, and to address the very real threat of climate change#And third, energy is %ey to

economic develo&ment and &olitical sta4ility# And "e have an interest in hel&ing the '#1 4illion&eo&le"orld"ide "ho don>t have access to energy# !e 4elieve the more they can access &o"er, the 4etter theirchances of starting 4usinesses, educating their children, increasing their incomes, oining the glo4al economy O all of"hich is good for them and for us# And 4ecause corru&tion is often a factor in energy &overty as "ell as &olitical insta4ility, "ehave an interest in su&&orting leaders "ho invest their nations> energy "ealth 4ac% into theireconomies instead of hoarding it for themselves#
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)ac iran

nergy diplomacy solves %ranian 5roliferation+linton 1) -Energy Di&lomacy in the 7'st Century )emar%s illary Rod$am +lintonSecretary of StateFeorgeto"n University !ashington, DC s oil industry# !hat you may not %no", 4ecause it doesn>t ma%e headlines, is ho"much &ainsta%ing di&lomacy "ent into ma%ing these sanctions first, ado&ted, and then, effective# irst, "e needed to convince

consumers of Iranian oil to sto& or significantly reduce their &urchases# At a time"hen demand for energy is high,many countries understanda4ly "ere "orried that reducing their &urchases "ould &ut them in a very

difficult &osition# So at the same time, "e reached out to other maor oil &roducers to encourage them to increase &roduction

so countries "ould 4e a4le to find alternative sources of oil# hat "as further hel&ed 4y the fact that here in the United States "eincreased oil &roduction 4y nearly (, 4arrels a day# And "e engaged countries on the 4enefits of diversifying their energysu&&ly as a national security matter# he a&&roach has "or%ed# he EU &ut an oil em4argo into &lace in .uly, and "e have certifiedthat every single one of Iran>s oil im&orters have either significantly cut or com&letely ended their &urchases of Iranian oil# !e>ve4een a4le to &ut un&recedented economic &ressure on Iran, "hile minimi@ing the 4urdens on the rest of the "orld# No" this strategyinfluenced our engagement in other &laces too O for eam&le, Sudan and South Sudan, "here the oil had sto&&ed flo"ing andgetting it going again mattered to 4oth of them and to us# ;oth countries> economies de&end on oil# No" most of the oil lies in thene" country of South Sudan# ;ut in order to e&ort that oil, South Sudan needs &i&elines and &orts, "hich Sudan controls# he t"ocountries "ere fighting over ho" much money South Sudan "ould &ay to Sudan to use that infrastructure# hey "ere so far a&art, acom&romise seemed im&ossi4le# So the United States ste&&ed u& our engagement in su&&ort of the African Union and the UnitedNations to avoid a return to "ar 4et"een the t"o countries, to hel& 4oost their economies, and to restart oil &roduction at a criticalmoment for the "orld>s oil su&&ly# his &ast August I fle" to .u4a, the ca&ital of South Sudan, to urge the &arties to recogni@e that a&ercentage of something is 4etter than a &ercentage of nothing# And a month later, they signed a coo&eration agreement, and it "asratified 4y the t"o &arliaments this "ee%# No" the situation is still fragile, and there are many other difficulties that they have to"or% out 4et"een themselves# ;ut this "as a ste& for"ard, and I "ant to commend 4oth sides for their leadershi& and courage#!e>ve also "or%ed intensively to su&&ort Ira=>s energy sector# In 7', Ira= &roduced a4out 7#1 million 4arrels of oil each day#

oday, that num4er is 1#7 million# And Ira= is no" the num4er t"o oil &roducer in s no =uestion that Ira=>s increased&roduction has hel&ed sta4ili@e oil mar%ets at this &ivotal moment, and it &rovides a foundation for a stronger economy to 4enefitthe Ira=i &eo&le# I "ant to mention one additional di&lomatic challenge "e>re focused on6 ho" to manage resources that crossnational 4oundaries# ;oundaries are not al"ays clearly delineated, es&ecially at sea# If oil or gas is discovered in an area t"ocountries share or "here 4oundaries are ineact, ho" "ill they develo& it Earlier this year, after a long negotiation led 4y the State

De&artment, the United States and Meico reached a ground4rea%ing agreement on oil and gasresources in the Fulf of Meico, and "e "ill 4esending it to Congress for action soon# heagreement clearly lays out ho" the United States and Meico "ill manage the resources thattranscend our maritime 4oundary# No", inaddition to these eam&les of energy di&lomacy, "e>re also focusedon our second area of engagement6 energy transformation O hel&ing to &romote ne" energy solutions,includingrene"a4les and energy efficiency, to meet rising demand, diversify the glo4al energy su&&ly, andaddress climate change#he transformation to cleaner energy is central to reducing the "orld>s car4on emissions and it is

the core of a strong 7'st century glo4al economy# ;ut "e %no" very "ell that energy transformation cannot 4e accom&lished 4ygovernments alone# In the net 7/ years, the "orld is going to need u& to V'/ trillion in investment to generate and transmit

electricity# Fovernments can and "ill &rovidesome of it, 4ut most "ill come from the &rivate sector# No", that>s not only ahuge challenge, 4ut a huge o&&ortunity# And I "ant to ma%e sure that American com&anies andAmerican "or%ers arecom&eting for those %inds of &roects# After all, American com&anies are leaders across the field of energy O leadersin rene"a4les, high?tech, smart?grid energy infrastructure, 4ioenergy, energy efficiency# And in thecoming decades, American com&anies should have the chance to do much more 4usiness "orld"ide, and 4y doing so, they"illhel& to create American o4s# No", governments can do several things to &romote energy transformation, li%e educate ourciti@ens a4out the value of energy efficiency and clean technology# ;ut &erha&s the most im&ortant thing "e can do is enact &oliciesthat create an ena4ling environment that attracts investment and &aves the "ay for large?scale infrastructure#
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%ranian 5roliferation is a uni!uely bad instance of proliferation causes /5Tcollapse and terrorist ac!uisition of nu"es

Hantor, 12, ''0107' -Moshe, President of the International Buem4ourg orum on Preventing Nuclear Catastro&he, 2he

!orld !ith A Nuclear Iran5, he !all Street .ournal,htt&600online#"s#com0article0S;''J7J/7(JH(J'J''J/(//HH7788R8/8J#html, MM9


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)ac c$ina

nergy .iplomacy is "ey to solving +$inese energy aggression prevents &'('

+$ina conflict t$roug$ cooperationRumley 12 - Dr Dennis )umley O DI associate ? a%a 2 Dr# Dud )um4les5 is an $onorary Senior )esearch ello" at theUniversity of !estern Australia, ? Australia and the Ne" Feo&olitics of Energy hursday, '7 August 7' ?htt&600"""#futuredirections#org#au0&u4lications0energy?security07H?australia?and?the?ne"?geo&olitics?of?energy#html ?;)!9

Energy di&lomacyon the &art of the "orld>s most energy im&ort?de&endent country, the United States, has ta%en four&rinci&al directions in the ne" international energy order # irst, the United States has4eenaggressively com&eting for energy su&&lies, es&ecially 2hemis&herically5 in the energy?niche states ofCanada, Mexicoand Xene@uela# Second, the United States has used various means of dissuasion to"ards states entering its&erceived s&here of energy influence># Any 2intrusion5 into the 2American Ba%e5, therefore, 4y an Asian energy com&etitor,es&ecially in the form of a 4ilateral agreement, is condemned and o&&osed# hus, the United States &laced considera4le &ressureu&on .a&an "hen it o&ted to develo& the A@adegan oil field in Iran# urthermore, India>s agreement "ith Iran to 4uild a gas &i&elinethrough ;aluchistan -the so?called 2&eace &i&eline59 "as &erceived as a challenge to American authority> in the region and thus,

according to Klare, elicited !ashington>s hysterical reaction># hird, US di&lomacy to"ards energy?nicheeconomiesand those of its allies involving a variety of inter?state agreements is encouraged# , as Klare refers to them, such as the Shanghai Co?o&eration


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constructive direction &ossi4le must therefore 4e a &riority for !ashington and ;eiing#Xirtually no ma;or global c$allenge can be met wit$out &'('#+$inacooperation ' he uncertainty of that future traectory and the Wstrategic mistrustW 4et"een leaders in !ashingtonand ;eiing necessarily concerns many e&erts and &olicyma%ers in 4oth countries# Although some U#S# analysts see Chinaas a strategic com&etitordeli4erately vying "ith the United States for energy resources, military su&eriority, andinternational &olitical influence ali%e analysis 4y the Center for Strategic and International Studies -CSIS9 has generallyfound that China uses its soft &o"er to &ursue its o"n, largely economic, international agenda &rimarily to achieve its

domestic o4ectives of economic gro"th and social sta4ility#' Although ;eiing certainly has an eye on !ashington, not all ofits actions are underta%en as a counter&oint to the United States# In addition, CSIS research suggests that gro"ing Chinesesoft &o"er in develo&ing countries may have influenced recent U#S# decisions to engage more actively and reinvest in soft?&o"er tools that have atro&hied during the &ast decade# o the etent that there eists a com&etition 4et"een the United

States and China, therefore, it may 4e mo4ili@ing 4oth countries to strengthen their a4ility to solve glo4al &ro4lems# o 4esure, U#S# and Chinese &olicy decisions to"ard the res&ective other &o"er "ill 4edetermined in large &art 4y the choices that leaders ma%e a4out their o"n nationsinterests at home and overseas, "hich in turn are sha&ed 4y their res&ective domestic contets# ;oth &artiesmust recogni@eand acce&tthat the other "ill &ursue a foreign &olicy a&&roach that is in its o"n national interest# :et,in a glo4ali@ed "orld, c$allenges are increasingly transnational , and so too must

be t$eir solutions' As demonstrated by the ra&id s&read of SA)S from China in 71, &andemicflucan 4e s&read ra&idly through air and via international travel# Dust &articulates from Asia settle in Ba%e ahoe#Aneconomic downturn in one country can and does trigger an economic

slowdown in anot$er ' T$ese c$allenges can no longer be addressed by eit$ercontainment or isolation' W$at constitutes t$e national interest todaynecessarily encompasses a broader and more complex set of considerationst$an it did in t$e past As a general &rinci&le, the United States see%s to &romote its national interest "hile itsimultaneously &ursues "hat the CSIS Commission on Smart Po"er called in its Novem4er 7( re&ort the Wglo4al good#W1

his a&&roach is not al"ays &ractical or achieva4le, of course# ;ut neither is it &ure 4enevolence# Instead, a strategic&ursuit of the glo4al good accrues concrete 4enefits for the United States -and others9 inthe form of 4uilding confidence, legitimacy, and &olitical influence in %ey countries andregions around the "orldin "ays that ena4le the United States to 4etter confront glo4al and transnationalchallenges# In short, the glo4al good com&rises those things that all &eo&le and governments "ant 4ut have traditionally not4een a4le to attain in the a4sence of U#S# leadershi Des&ite historical, cultural, and &olitical differences 4et"een the UnitedStates and China, ;eiings ne"found a4ility, o"ing to its recent economic successes, to contri4ute to the glo4al good is a

matter for common ground 4et"een the t"o countries# oday there is increasing recognition that no ma!or globalchallenge can be addressed effectively" much less resolved" without the activeengagement of#and cooperation between#the U nited S tates and China#


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)ac scs

nergy diplomacy solves (out$ +$ina (ea conflict

+linton 1) former Secretary of State -$illary )odham Clinton, 2 Energy Di&lomacy in the 7'st Century5 re focused on energy di&lomacy#No" some of our energy di&lomacy is related toissues in theheadlines# :ou may have read a4out heated dis&utes over territorial claims in the South China Sea# !ell,"hy do you thin% that>s ha&&ening here are &otentially significant =uantities of oil and gas resourcesright net door to countries "ith fast?gro"ing energy needs# And you can see "hy at times the situationis 4ecoming =uite tense#!e are su&&orting efforts 4y the &arties themselves to ado&t a clearcode of conduct to manage those &otential resources "ithout conflict#

(out$ +$ina (ea conflict also goes nuclear

Wesley 61) Michael !esley, Non?)esident Senior ello" at the ;roo%ings Institution and an Adunct Professor at FriffithUniversity and he University of Sydney, former Eecutive Director of the Bo"y Institute for International Policy, former Professorof International )elations and Director of the Friffith Asia Institute at Friffith University, and Senior Becturer in International)elations at the University of Ne" South !ales, .uly 7'7, 2!hat>s at sta%e in the South China Sea5htt&600lo"yinstitute#cachefly#net0files0"esleyT"hatsTatTsta%eTsna&shot''#&dfQ

he South China Seais enclosed 4y the "est coast of mainland Southeast Asia, ;orneo and the Phili&&ine archi&elago# )ichin hydrocar4ons and fish stoc%s, it is traversed 4y over one?third of glo4al shi&&ing# Its "aters andsea4ed are su4ect to si o&&osing territorial claimsO 4y China, ai"an, Xietnam, Malaysia, ;runeiand the Phili&&inesO 4ut these confrontations are generally not regarded as seriously as the ai"an Straits and the Korean&eninsula standoffs# ;ut the South China Sea is more un&redicta4le, andcertainly"arrants much closerand more sustained attention4y strategists and &olicy?ma%ers# It is in the South China Sea that thecom&onents of Asia>s changing &o"er dynamics are most concentrated and on dis&lay6 China>sgro"ing strategic heftand &aranoid sense of entitlementG its Southeast Asian neigh4ours>ho&es andmisgivingsa4out China>s regional dominanceG and the United States> com&ulsion to meet China>s strategicchallenge# he South China Sea is a tangle of com&eting and mutually com&licating claims overterritory, resources and navigation rights# Feo&olitically, it is li%e the ;ermuda triangle, reversing e&ectedalignments and sus&ending normal rules of the game# It &its Asia>s t"o most significant Communist countries, China and Xietnam,against each other, unites usually 4itter enemies China and ai"an, and is dra"ing the United States 4ac% to a &artnershi& "ith

Xietnam a generation after the fall of Saigon# he South China Sea is the flash&oint in the Pacific "hereconflict is most li%ely to 4rea% out through miscalculation # It is a cro"ded maritimeenvironment contested 4y some ine&erienced maritime forces "ith underdevelo&ed navaldoctrine, among "hom there are no esta4lished and acce&ted rules for managing maritimeincidents# And the com4ination ofthe claimant states> &o"er asymmetries, overla&&ing &rerogatives,and gro"ing nationalism mean that incidents , once they occur, are li%ely to escalate# here are four reasons"hy finding solutions to the South China Sea dis&utes should 4e given the highest &riority 4y strategic &olicy?ma%ers# '# or China

it>s a4out security O and res&ect he South China Sea sym4olises ;eiing>s larger maritime dilemma# hecountry>s maor &o&ulation and &roductive centres cluster along China>s coastline, and are therefore vulnera4le to maor attac% fromthe sea# Naval strategists see China as hemmed in along its sea coast 4y a chain of states or territories hostile to ;eiing6 .a&an,

Korea, the )yu%u Islands, ai"an, and the Phili&&ines# he overriding goal of Chinese naval strategy is toesta4lish dominance over the "aters "ithin this first island chain ># At the southern end of the first islandchain, the South China Sea is crucial to China>s commercial shi&&ing, energy flo"s, and the access of its$ainan island?4ased su4marines to the Pacific# ;ut the South China Sea>s southern and "estern access &ointsO the Sunda, Bom4o%, Bu@on and Malacca Straits O are controlled 4y allies or &artners of the United States#he 4est "ay to offset this vulnera4ility is to control the South China Sea itself O and there4yloosen the American &osition in Southeast Asia# Influential elites in China vie" the South China Sea as 4lueterritory> O that is, as much a &art of China>s sovereign territory as i4et, Liniang or ai"an# o this line of thin%ing, any surrenderof its claims in the South China Sea "ould signal a "ea%ening of its rights to i4et, Liniang or ai"an O and is thereforeunthin%a4le# China>s '887 erritorial Ba" classified the South China Sea as China>s internal "aters, meaning foreign naval vessels
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and aircraft must first gain ;eiing>s &ermission 4efore transiting, su4marines must surface, and that China retains the right to evictother countries> shi&&ing at any time# ;eiing>s "illingness to enforce this la" has 4een gro"ing a&ace "ith its naval &o"er in the"estern Pacific# In recent "ee%s, ;eiing has &laced the S&ratly and Paracel Islands and the Macclesfield ;an% under &refectural?level administration, esta4lished a J/?mem4er legislature to administer the '' &eo&le "ho live on the islands, and a&&roved the

de&loyment of a Peo&le>s Bi4eration Army garrison to the islands# 7# Southeast Asia O avoiding the 4ad old days Ifunaddressed, the dynamics in the South China Sea could return Southeast Asia to the 4ad olddays of inter?state divisions , domestic insta4ility and com&etitive great?&o"er interventions # reliance onthe &rinci&le of unanimityO "hich meansthat any mem4er>s o4ection can %ee& an issue, no matter ho" &ressing, off the agenda# ;eiing>s refusal to discuss the South ChinaSea in any regional meeting, and its im&licit threat to "ithdra" from any organisation that doesn>t res&ect this "ish, sho"sSoutheast Asia>s confidence that it could socialise> China 4y "elcoming it into regional institutions "as mis&laced# Asian institutionsallo" ;eiing to ma%e a&&arent concessions, such as its 77 agreement "ith ASEAN to a Declaration of Conduct on the SouthChina Sea, "ithout actually surrendering any &art of its &osition# As China and the United States increase the sta%es in the South

China Sea,ASEAN>s cardinal &rinci&le of neutrality is threatened# he Phili&&ines, Xietnam, Malaysia,Singa&ore and Indonesia are tightening their strategic relationshi&s "ith the United States, ust as Cam4odia, Baos and hailanddee&en their lin%s to China# And there are signs that the dis&utes have 4ecome entangled in domestic &olitics in the Phili&&ines andXietnam, ma%ing their stances even more uncom&romising# In Manila, follo"ing allegations that ;eiing used corru&t &ayments to

soften the former Arroyo administration>s stance on the South China Sea, the current A=uino administration and its Parliamentaryo&&osition are vying for the most uncom&romising &olicies on the issue# o counter rumours circulating around $anoi that ;eiinghas 4ought> the Xietnam>s senior leadershi&, the Xietnamese government has &assed a la" claiming sovereignty over the S&ratly andParacel Islands# 1# or the United States it>s a4out Credi4ility O "ithin limits It is in the South China Sea that Southeast Asia>sanieties a4out China overla& "ith American anieties a4out ;eiing>s naval 4uildu s at sta%e in the South China Sea is thevia4ility of its entire &resence in the "estern Pacific# he US Navy>s access to the South ChinaSea is contested 4y ;eiing# China claims it "ill res&ect the freedom of &assage of shi&s and aircraft through the area, onthe condition that they are en route to another destination, and do not conduct military eercises or collect intelligence or militarily

useful data#!ashington is adamant that the South China Sea>s sea lanes are international "aters, andare therefore su4ect to freedom of navigation,"hich in international la" allo"s the conduct of military eercisesand the collection of intelligence and militarily useful data# If !ashington surrenders its a4ility to navigate the

South China Sea on its o"n terms, it "ill lose a maor foothold in the "estern Pacific # he SouthChina Sea in effect &its a Chinese e&ansive claim -sovereignty 4ased on historical usage9 against an American e&ansive claim, thatfreedom of navigation allo"s the collection of intelligence and military data# he American claim is contested in other "aters 4yMalaysia, Indonesia and India, though su&&orted 4y other regional countries# China accuses the US of hy&ing> the freedom ofnavigation =uestion, arguing that it hides an intention to use the issue to 4uild a coalition against China# or the Southeast Asianstates contesting China>s South China Sea claims, the United States> &resence and interest in the issue is a &rere=uisite for their

&osition#!ashingtonis acutely a"are that it needs to 4e seen as a relia4le ally and &artner in the Pacific #It realises that its arms?length res&onse to the Asian inancial Crisis eroded its &osition in Asia and set China on its &ath to"ards4uilding soft &o"er in the region# or Southeast Asians "orried that !ashington>s attention or "ill to stay in the region may erode,

there is virtue in %ee&ing the South China Sea on the agenda# ;ut!ashington can>t give its allies and &artners a4lan% che=ue "hich allo"s them to confront, and even &rovo%e, Chinafrom the comfort of the assum&tion thatthe United States "ill 4ac% them u And some in Southeast Asia are "atching !ashington>s movesveryclosely, sensitive that any concession could signal its acce&tance of China>s claims in the SouthChina Sea#J# Solutions are Part of the Pro4lem Either multilateral mediation or international la" is mostoften used to resolve dis&utes of this sort O4ut in the South China Sea they act to eacer4ate thesituation# ;eiing refuses to discuss the dis&ute in any multilateral contet , fearing that it "ill facilitatethe formation of a front against China# he Southeast Asian claimants, ho"ever, are adamant that they mustdeal "ith China as a coalition, "ith Manila &articularly insistent that ASEAN must negotiate a common &osition 4eforenegotiating "ith China# he result is a stand?off6 the Phili&&ines insists that ASEAN must find a common &osition 4eforenegotiating "ith China, "hile China "ill only negotiate if ASEAN a4andons the search for a common &osition# Internationalla" also intensifies the dis&ute# heUnited Nations Convention on the Ba" of the Sea does not recogniseChina>s historical claims, and therefore cannot serve as the 4asis for an adudication of the dis&ute# !orse,4ecauseinternational la" relies on un4ro%en longevity of claims as the 4asis for adudication, none of


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the &ar

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TBHA Aff and Neg - Michigan7 2013 ACHM