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Major Demographic Changes in Minnesota
Hazel Reinhart
&
Tom Gillaspy
The Rate of Minnesota Population Change Increased in the 90s
14.50%
11.50%
7.10% 7.30%
12.40%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-00
Decade
Per
cent
Cha
nge
We are at the beginning of significant change in Minnesota’s
population Dimensions of this change will affect
Minnesota government budget and programs
Minnesota’s self image
The future shape of Minnesota
Three dimensions of population change
•Aging
•Racial/ethnic diversity
•Geographic distribution of the population
All Else33%
Higher Education11%
K-12 Education32%
Health and Human Services
22%
Family and Early Childhood
2%
2000-01 Biennium--Approximately 2/3rds of the Minnesota State Budget Goes To Expenditures Related
To Age of The Population
Much of Minnesota's state government budget is
directly affected by changes in age of the populationPopulation is aging--the next two decades will seeK-12 enrollments will decline, reflecting lower numbers of births
after 1990. The traditional college age population will increase through this
decade, falling thereafter. Increases in the young old but slower growth in the old old,
implying a shift in the emphasis of health costs. Slower growth in the working age population will further
aggravate the current labor shortage.Maturing of the workforce fueled some of the remarkable growth
in income in the 1990s. This effect will diminish in the future.
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
1000000
1980 1985 1990 1995 1999 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Chi
ldre
n 5
to 1
7School Age Population Is On The Verge Of
Decline
School Age Children Are Increasingly Concentrated in the Twin Cities Metro Area
-1.8%
-11.6%
7.5%
20.8%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Age Group
Per
cent
Cha
nge
1990
-99
11 County TwinCities Metro
Rest of the State
Traditional College Age Will Increase This Decade
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
550000
600000
1980 1985 1990 1995 1999 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1980 1985 1990 1995 1999 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
65+ 85+
Minnesota's Population 65+ Will rise Even More Rapidly After 2010; The 85+ Population Will See
Moderated Increases Through 2025
Older Workforce Is Growing Rapidly While Younger Workers Are Decreasing
28.3%
-0.1%
-7.2%
5.9%4.1%
32.6%
38.5%
-0.9%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
1980-90 1990-99 1999-10 2010-20
25-4445-64
Dependency Ratio is at an Historically Low Level
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Year
Dep
ende
ncy
Rat
io
Dependency ratio is population under 15 and over 64 divided by population 15-64
Minnesota is Approaching A Peak Number of People In Their Peak
Earning Years
•Peak number of people in peak earning years (40s and early 50s) this decade.
•Contribute to increased income
•Contribute to increased purchasing
Minnesota is Becoming More Diverse
•More diverse but still much less than the nation
•More new immigrants and people of minority races and ethnicity
•Changes are related to strong economic growth and tight labor market
•Presents some challenges to government services, such as languages spoken at school
4.7%
2.6%
6.2%
2.6%
7.9%
2.6%
9.7%
4.6%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
US Mn
Per
cen
t F
ore
ign
Bo
rn
1970198019901997
Proportion of Foreign born Population In Minnesota Is Beginning To Increase
6.2%
24.3%
8.8%
28.1%
14.8%
37.6%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
Minnesota U.S.
1990 1999 2025
Minnesota Is Becoming More Diverse But Still Less Than The Nation
Minnesota Projected Population Change 2000-2010
3%
36%31%
17%
57%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
55%
65%
White AfricanAmerican
Asian & PacificIsla
AmericanIndian
Hispanic
Per
cen
t C
han
ge
24.8%
37.9%
5.4%
5.1%
27.7%
20.6%
23.3%
22.2%
15.9%
16.8%
16.5%
17.3%
16.1%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0%
Minneapolis
St. Paul
Other large district
State
Worthington
Madelia
Mountain Lake
Butterfield
Lynd
Sleepy Eye
St. James
Pelican Rapids
Willmar
Percent of Students Speaking Language Other Than English At Home 2000
Non-English Speaking Students; While Minneapolis and St. Paul Have The Largest Numbers, Some
Smaller Districts Also Have Substantial Proportions
Minnesota Is Increasingly An Urban State
•Twin Cities suburban area now includes about 45% of the state’s population
•Most of the growth in the state is occurring in the Twin Cities suburban area
•Growth and congestion will continue to be issues
Population by area of the State
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
1990 1999 2010 2020
Minneapolis & St. Paul11 County Metro ringRest of State
Most of Minnesota’s Population Growth Is In The Suburban Ring Around The Twin Cities
-50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000
1990-99
1999-10
2010-20
Change In Population
Minneapolis & St. Paul 11County Metro Ring Rest of State