Upload
lsl-land-new-homes
View
220
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
With the focus now turning from demand to supply – the news of planning reforms to support house building is no doubt welcomed across the industry and, in turn, should improve affordability levels for those looking to buy new but what is happening ‘on the ground’ with prices – Shaun Peart, Managing Director of LSL Land & New Homes www.lsllandandnewhomes.co.uk explains.
Citation preview
Powered by
Data sources: LSL New Build House Price Index | ONS, EARN05 – Average weekly gross earnings of full time employees, by region.
LSL New Build IndexThe market indicator for New Builds July 2015
With the focus now turning from demand to supply – the news of planning reforms to support house building is no doubt welcomed across the
industry and, in turn, should improve affordability levels for those looking to buy new but what is happening ‘on the ground’ with prices –
Shaun Peart, Managing Director of LSL Land & New Homes www.lsllandandnewhomes.co.uk explains:
The year on year change in new build prices to the end of June 2015 has fallen
back slightly to 6.8%, from 7.2% in May – although still up on last year’s June
figure of 4.6%.
Splitting the country into The North and The South along the traditional Wash
to the Humber line shows a further level of detail – as the graph shows - with
Greater London also separated out.
The cause of the flat lining of the crude average figure is the slowdown in the
Greater London market which is offsetting the growth in the rest of the country.
A clear ripple effect, which has been evident in previous property cycles,
is now increasingly evident. The regions closest to Greater London are
seeing strong growth rates in the 6-8% range and the South West
is not far behind with a growth rate approaching 5% - all more than
twice the growth rate at achieved last year. Greater London’s growth
rate has, however, now slowed to a similar level to June 2014.
At the other end of the country, while most northern regions are
achieving growth rates similar to those achieved by the South - around
2-3%, Scotland is leading the pack with a growth rate of 4.8%.
Overall, the Southern surrounding regions appear to be moving
into a stronger growth phase and the Northern regional counties
seem, at last, to have returned to a growth phase.
Market movements are to some degree determined by the availability of
house buyers. Overseas money is said to account for a sizeable proportion
of property purchases in Greater London. But as the table below shows,
this has restricted the affordability of property in London to many buyers.
The First Time Buyers HPE Index looks at the average cost of buying
a 70 sq m 2 bed home in each region - compared to the average
earnings of a full time employee in that region. On average a 70
sq m home costs the equivalent of 5 years and 3 month’s gross
earnings. But there is a wide regional variation in this figure.
In fact the East Midlands appear to be the most affordable place
to live at present. It is amongst the highest performers in terms of
regional house price growth (at 5.9%), and simultaneously it has the
lowest first time buyers HPE ratio, at 3.82. So it has both high levels
of affordability and increasingly strong house price growth.
The First Time Buyers HPE index also expresses the affordability of a 70 sq
m property in each region, as a percentage of the average for all regions. A
clear North South divide again emerges with the Southern regions of South
East, South West, East Anglia all having a HPE rate of over 5 which results in
Index figures over 100. However Greater London has a HPE ratio of nearly 11,
which is three times greater than the rate in the most affordable regions.
How the figures will change in the months to come will be interesting to
see but, at the moment, while the supply issue is being addressed we
must not forget that some of the basics still need to be considered – with
the need for more trained and skilled people on the top of the list. Without
these while the headlines sound good, it’s the results that matter.
Powered by
Average New Home Prices
*Size adjusted average price
Period July 2014 to June 2015 and % variation over same period 2013/14.
SCOTLAND £ AVERAGE %+/-
£264,526 7.0% ↑
£138,629 2.3% ↑
£163,979 -0.5% ↓
£182,711 2.6% ↑
NORTH EAST £ AVERAGE %+/-
£259,619 7.2% ↑
£106,435 -0.8% ↓
£156,171 1.0% ↑
£144,072 -1.0% ↓
NORTH WEST £ AVERAGE %+/-
£285,708 3.5% ↑
£126,807 2.6% ↑
£168,114 2.4% ↑
£161,007 2.9% ↑
YORKSHIRE & THE HUMBER £ AVERAGE %+/-
£269,852 5.3% ↑
£118,768 4.2% ↑
£152,391 -0.9% ↓
£149,728 1.1% ↑
WEST MIDLANDS £ AVERAGE %+/-
£310,522 3.8% ↑
£134,806 7.8% ↑
£192,676 4.8% ↑
£186,427 7.8% ↑
EAST MIDLANDS £ AVERAGE %+/-
£278,940 8.0% ↑
£109,094 7.4% ↑
£168,828 2.7% ↑
£160,151 4.6% ↑
-1%
WALES £ AVERAGE %+/-
£241,233 0.8% ↑
£137,403 4.3% ↑
£165,297 3.9% ↑
£162,721 3.4% ↑
EAST ANGLIA £ AVERAGE %+/-
£366,972 8.9% ↑
£198,525 7.5% ↑
£245,575 5.8% ↑
£250,081 9.4% ↑
SOUTH WEST £ AVERAGE %+/-
£338,427 3.1% ↑
£167,481 5.8% ↑
£217,118 5.5% ↑
£212,205 5.0% ↑
GREATER LONDON £ AVERAGE %+/-
£658,033 13.6% ↑
£385,720 11.7% ↑
£463,364 9.5% ↑
£470,751 10.0% ↑
SOUTH EAST £ AVERAGE %+/-
£459,796 8.2% ↑
£201,972 8.3% ↑
£297,265 7.9% ↑
£278,103 6.9% ↑
Detached
Flats
Semis
Terrace
13.6%
LARGEST % DECREASENORTH EAST
GREATER LONDONLARGEST % INCREASE
Powered by
This Index has been prepared by e.surv using anonymised data
based on a proportion of all new build valuations provided for lending
purposes. Figures represent 12 month rolling averages for each
period. The copyright and all other intellectual property rights in the
Index belong to e.surv. Reproduction in whole or part is not permitted
unless an acknowledgement to e.surv as the source is included. No
modification is permitted without e.surv’s prior written consent.
Whilst care is taken in the compilation of the Index no representation
or assurances are made as to its accuracy or completeness. e.surv
reserves the right to vary the methodology and to edit or discontinue
the Index in whole or in part at anytime.
e.surv (www.esurv.co.uk) is the Valuation business of LSL Property
Services plc (www.lslps.co.uk) and is the UK’s largest residential
valuation practice, acting for lenders, developers, Social Housing
organisations and other stakeholders in the residential property
market.
The business employs circa 450 chartered surveyors and covers the
entire UK.
LSL Land & New Homes is a trading style for members of the LSL
Property Services Group Estate Agency Division, one of the leading
residential property services groups in the UK. It’s strategy is to create
partnerships with developers and builders to support their objectives
and add value to their businesses.
It can provide integrated solutions for their benefit drawing on the
expertise of companies who are also under the LSL Group umbrella
including valuation services (e.surv), rental portfolio services, asset
management services and estate agency services fronted by well-
known high street estate agency brands like Your Move and Reeds
Rains. Services can be tailored to suite individual needs from bespoke
site sales and marketing, agency referral to the disposal of part
exchange, assisted schemes and new build stock, land sales and
acquisitions.
Data for the LSL New Build Database is collected is collected off the web sites of over 300 house builders on a rolling quarterly basis so giving a rough timeline of when sites start and finish and how many units have been built.
PLEASE NOTE: The majority of new build market activity data is quite historic, being based on returns made via the NHBC or Local Authority completions data. The LSL New Build Database tracks the new build activity of over 300 leading house builders with data collected from their websites on a rolling quarterly basis so giving a rough time line when sites start and finish and how many units have been built.
Disclaimer: The data is provided by LSL Land & New Homes and is based on data provided as described above. While reasonable skill and care has been taken in the preparation of the data – the copyright and all other intellectual property rights of which belong to e.surv limited - neither e.surv Limited nor LSL Land & New Homes can accept liability for the accuracy or completeness of the data provided.
Reproduction in whole or part is not permitted unless an acknowledgment to e.surv Limited is included. No modification is permitted without e.surv Limited’s prior written consent.
No warranty of the figures is given and no responsibility or liability of any nature to you or any third party for the whole or any part of its content is accepted. It is assumed that you will carry out your own due diligence before proceeding with any proposals or making any financial commitments.
For further information or enquiries regarding the underlying data of the
LSL New Build Index, please contact Richard Sexton via email
[email protected] or by phoning 07968 932118.
For further information about the LSL Property Services Group including
LSL Land & New Homes and e.surv, visit www.lslps.co.uk
Notes