Liberty Shoes Ltd. (LSL)

(Wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of Baroda)

Exhibit 1: Financial summary (Rs mn)

Year end: March FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E

Net sales 3,620 4,839 5,550 6,510 7,635 8,716

Growth (%) 1.29 33.67 14.70 17.29 17.29 14.17

Operating margin (%) 8.3 8.5 8.6 9.1 9.4 9.4

PAT 54 133 148 190 268 331

Adjusted PAT 58 135 148 190 268 331

EPS (Rs) 3.4 7.9 8.7 11.1 15.7 19.4

P/E(x) 24.9 18.7 30.0 23.4 16.6 13.4

ROE (%) 4.3 9.8 10.7 12.9 16.3 17.6

ROCE (%) 8.2 11.1 12.4 12.2 13.8 14.7

Debt/equity (x) 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8

Source: Company, BOBCAPSe

$Com panyName$

Liberty Shoes Ltd. (LSL)

Forefront of Emerging Markets ; initiate with BUY

We initiate coverage on Liberty shoes Ltd. (LSL) with a BUY rating

and a price target of Rs.388 implying 49%upside. LSL, second

largest footwear brand company in India, is turning to strong growth path. It has shown healthy growth in FY14, in spite of having a

slowdown in the economy. We expect that the revenue /Earnings to

grow at ~16% /~26% CAGR over FY14-18E respectively. It is driven by strong volume growth, big portfolio with healthy product mix and

reduction in excise duty burden.

Portfolio of Strong Brands: Liberty is famous as a family footwear brand and has a big portfolio with ten brands (i.e. Coolers, Fortune, Warriors,

Windsor, Senorita, Tiptop, Gliders, Force10, Footfun and Perfect). It caters to

all genders and age groups. LSL is one of most trusted brand in the footwear and have touched the lives of over 6 crore customers with over 5000 styles.

We believe that the company will be able to fulfill the ever increasing demand,

which would have a positive impact on volume growth.

Deep penetration to increase volume growth: The Company is planning

to open about 100 stores each year. 60 new stores would be franchise-owned,

while 40 stores would be company-owned specially in tier II, tier III cities with focus on southern region which includes Kerala, Telangna, Andhra Pradesh,

Kerala and also in Gujarat where the potential for growth is significant. We

expect that the volume would grow at a 15% CAGR over FY14-18E.

Margin expansion led by volume growth and restructuring: We believe

that LSL would grow at CAGR ~16% over FY2014-18E (likewise its previous

year growth over…). Margins would expand on account of strong volume growth, better product mix, reduction in excise duty from (12% to 6% on

leather product >Rs 1000) and less royalty payment due to restructuring of

group companies.

Rising trend of ROE & ROCE: We expect that the ROE and ROCE of the

company is likely to reach at 17.6x from 9.8x and 14.6x from 11.1x

respectively. This indicates the optimum efficiency of operations and would help the company to get better returns going forwards.

Valuation & recommendation: We expect the company’s revenue

/earnings to grow at ~16%/~26% CAGR over FY14-18E respectively. This is due to volume growth, aggressive retail expansion and margins expansion. At

CMP of Rs 261, the stock is trading at around 23x FY15E PE. We value the

Company at P/E of 20x to arrive at our price target of Rs.388 (49% upside).

Akanksha Tripathi | [email protected] | +91 22 6138 9383

Price Price Target Up/Down (%)

Rs. 261 Rs.388

Bloomberg Code Reuters Code

LBS IN LIBS.NS

Share Holding (%) As on 31st Dec. 2014

Promoters 64.92

FII 0.00

DIIs 0.07

Stock Data

Nifty 8,586

Sensex 28,260

52 week high/low 351/148

Maket Cap (Rs. bn) 4.4

Price performance (%) 1M 3M 6M 1Y

Absolute -12.7 -0.8 -14.5 72.4

Relative to Sensex -8.9 -3.5 -20.9 46.5

Relative Performance

49%

50100150200250300

Ap

r-1

4

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-1

4

Dec

-14

Jan-

15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

BSE Sensex Liberty Shoes Ltd.

Source:-Bloomberg

Sector: FOOTWEAR

6th April, 2015

Initiating coverage

BUY

Liberty Shoes Ltd. | 6 April 2015

| Equity research | 2


The Indian Footwear Industry

Emerging Indian footwear industry is a fastest growing market driven by fashion awareness

increase in organized retailing, fast urbanization, and increase in disposable income of the

middle-class, increasing working women and youth population. India is the second largest global

producer of footwear after China, accounting for 13% of global Footwear production of 16 bn

pairs. The Indian Footwear Industry is highly fragmented. There are nearly 4,000 units engaged

in manufacturing footwear in India. The industry is dominated by small scale units contributing

nearly 55% of total production.

There is a shift in trend of unorganized market to organized market with the increase in urban

population, changing lifestyle, rising brand consciousness and transformation in the buying

potential of the Indian customer specifically in the youth. It has transformed from being a highly

unorganized market to an emerging organized retail Industry.

Exhibit 2: Indian footwear Market composition

Unorganized, 55%

Organized, 45%

Source: Industry, BOBCAPSe

Exhibit 3: Indian footwear market segment

Men, 55%

Women, 30%

Kids, 15%

Source: Industry, BOBCAPS

Footwear – Global Scenario and India’s share

The global import of Footwear (both leather footwear as well as non-leather footwear) has

increased from US$ 81.47 bn in 2007 to US$ 103.38 bn in 2011, growing at a CAGR of 6.13%.

Exhibit 4: Growing share of India in total global footwear industry-

(in MN US $) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Global import of Footwear 81477.88 88822.8 78453.08 91614.94 103385.24

India's export of Footwear & Uppers 1489.35 1534.32 1507.59 1758.67 2079.14

% Share of India 1.82% 1.72% 1.92% 1.91% 2.01%





Exhibit 5: Growing Indian market share globally

1.5%

1.6%

1.7%

1.8%

1.9%

2.0%

2.1%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: Industry,BOBCAPS

Footwear exports has increased from US$ 102.37 mn in 1982-83 to US$ 2055.93 mn in 2012-13

Exhibit 6: India’s Footwear Export Growth over the last Four Decades

102

423 625

2,056

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1982-83 1992-93 2002-03 2012-13

USD

Mn





Investment rationale

Changing lifestyle and increasing purchasing power:

Current Indian population is approx. 1.28bn, and the size of domestic footwear industry in India

is approx. Rs.340 mn. Indian footwear market has not even covered half of the population yet

and the footwear Industry has grown at a CAGR of around 15% during 2012-2014. we expect

Indian industry to grow at same pase.

Key driver of volume growth are – 1) Increasing work force, and rising disposable income of the

urban middle-class consumers, 3) increase in the no. of working women and purchasing power,

4) upsurge in middle class population in non-metro cities, 5) change in consumption habits like

separate formal and casual wear, moving towards organized retailing and 6) desire for branded

footwear as the Indian consumer has become more conscious and demanding in their choice and

preference 7) increasing per capita consumption in India (currently the per capita consumption

of footwear is 1 as compared to 4-6 in neighbouring Asian Countries and 6-8 in the developed

European markets.)

Exhibit 7: Revenue contribution from different regions

North, 45%

South, 35%

Others, 20%

Source: Company, BOBCAPS

Deep penetration to fuel growth: Company is planning to open about 100 stores each year.

60 new stores would be franchise-owned, while 40 stores would be company-owned. In FY 14,

northern India had contributed around 45% of the sales while around 35% of the total domestic

sales were contributed by Southern India, sales in southern regions have shown good potential.

They are planning to expand especially in tier II, tier III cities and southern region which includes

Kerala, Telangna, Andhra Pradesh, and Kerala and also in Gujarat where the potential for growth

is significant. We expect that the volume would grow at 15% CAGR over FY14-18E.

Exhibit 8: Volume to grow at 15% CAGR over FY14-18E

0

5

10

15

20

25

FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E

No in

mns





Reduction in royalty payment and reduction in excise duty: Big positive: Liberty has

benefited from reduction in excise duty as 33% of the revenue comes from leather footwear

with MRP above Rs.1,000. (In the current Budget excise duty has been reduced from 12% to

6% for the shoes above Rs.1,000 made out of leather.) Hence, there is a huge saving in

terms of excise duty for the company.

Liberty pays nearly 2% of its revenues as royalty to its group companies for using the Liberty

brand. The company hopes some reduction in royalty payment due to restructuring of two of

its group companies i.e. Liberty Enterprises and Liberty Group Marketing division (restructured

during FY15). We believe that the consolidation will not only help reduce outflow of royalty

fee and improve bottom line but will also smoothen the path for independent growth of

business.

Decreasing raw material prices: The sharp decline in crude oil prices has also added to

the strong leap in Liberty Shoes. A lot of raw materials used to make leather footwear are

derived from crude oil. The price of these raw materials have come down and fall in the raw

material cost has offset the increase in labour cost and led to improvement in margins.

Wide range of product to strengthen brand equity: Liberty has touched the lives of

over 6 cr. customers led by strong brand equity and the wide range of products. Liberty is

famous as a family footwear brand and caters to all age groups with the understanding of

consumer needs and lifestyle. It has over 5000 styles, with new variations every season.

Today, even the youth in smaller towns are gradually turning towards lifestyle and allied

products. We expect that the new designs and wide range of products would help the

company to constantly increase its customer base while meeting the changing lifestyle needs

of its customers.

Exhibit 9: Target Segments

Brand For Price Range (In Rs.)

Coolers, Fortune, Warriors, Windsor

Men

(300-2500) (800-4000) (900-2000)

(1000-2500)

Senorita Tiptop

Women (450-2000)

(300-2000)

Gliders, Force 10

Men/Women (150-2000) (500-2000)

Footfun Perfect

Kids (150-1000) (500-800)


Global presence and new associations: Liberty is the first Indian brand to have a Liberty

retail outlet in Europe way back in 1986. Liberty manufactures under its own name and also

for some leading global brands across the world. This expands its footprint across 75

countries globally.

Recently Liberty has entered with the US-based multinational Disney for launching a new

brand into under the latter's Avenger animation series. With a top brand and the long-term

association with a popular name like Disney. Liberty is likely would penetrate deeper the

global markets.

Exhibit 10: Revenue mix of the company

Export, 9%

Domestic, 91%





Financial performance

Exhibit 11: Revenue is likely to grow at 15.8% CAGR over FY14-18E

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000


Rs

mn


EBITDA to grow at 18.8% CAGR with ~90 bps expansion over FY14-18E: EBITDA grew

at 17.27% CAGR in FY10-14 and we expect it to grow at 18.82% CAGR over FY14-18E. This is

mainly led by increasing volume growth, decreasing in raw materials price, restructuring of group

companies and reduction in excise duty. We believe, EBITDA to reach Rs 817 mn in FY18 with

expansion of ~90 bps over FY14-18E.

Exhibit 12: Improving EBITDA margin

8

8

9

9

10

0

200

400

600

800

1000


%

Rs.

mn

EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%)


Exhibit 13: PAT to grow at 28.3% CAGR over FY14-18E

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

0

100

200

300

400


%

Rs.

mn

PAT PAT Margin (%)


Driven by strong volume growth, aggressive retail expansion and shifting trend from unorganized to organized retailing




We expect that, with the strong volume growth and earnings growth, the company can expand

its retail outlets through internal accruals.

Exhibit 14: Decreasing Debt/Equity Ratio

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2


x


We expect that the ROE and ROCE of the company is likely to reach at 17.6x from 9.8x and

14.6x from 11.1x respectively. This indicates the optimum efficiency of operations and would

help the company to get better returns going forwards.

Exhibit 15: Rising ROE & ROCE

0

5

10

15

20


%

ROE ROCE





Key Risk

Upswing in raw material prices: A lot of raw materials used by the footwear industry are

derived from crude oil. In the case of a surge in crude oil prices, company’s cost-effectiveness

might get vulnerable.

Globally Competitive Business Environment: Company operates in a globally competitive

business environment. With ever increasing competition from the local players as well as global

giants in the Footwear Industry with deep pockets, maintaining the existing market share and

leadership position in organized retail footwear industry is a major challenge.

Labour Price: Footwear industry is a labour intensive industry. If wages go up, the company's

margins are hit. Minimum wages go up by 10-15% per year. Labour costs are around 10% of the

maximum retail selling price.




Valuation

We believe that Liberty Shoes, supported by numerous growth triggers, is a good investment

option. We expect the revenue/EBITDA to grow at 15%/18.8% CAGR over FY14-FY18E

respectively due to significant volume growth and strengthening of the distribution networks, pan

India.

The company is turning towards a strong growth path and we believe that it would be one of the

forefront company in emerging footwear market. LSL gave impressive performance in FY14 as

compared to past years as the revenue grew by 34% and PAT grew by 146%.

At CMP of Rs 261, the stock is trading at around 23x FY15E PE. We value the Company at P/E of

20x to arrive at our price target of Rs.388 (49% upside).

Exhibit 16: Peer Comparison – Key financials & margins

Sales PAT EBITDA Margin EPS

(RS) (Rs mn) FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY16E FY17E

BATA INDIA 22011 1727 15.43 15.63 15.05 34.90 45.03 45.00

LIBERTY SHOES 4839 133 8.59 9.08 9.38 8.70 11.15 15.72

RELAXO FOOTWEARS 12118 656 12.47 12.67 12.97 14.74 19.56 25.93

Source: Bloomberg, BOBCAPSe

Exhibit 17: Peer Comparison – Key valuation matrix

Price Mkt.cap P/E (X) ROE(%)

(RS) (Rs mn) FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY16E FY17E

BATA INDIA 1095 703647 31.38 24.32 24.3 22.4 24.4 25.00

LIBERTY SHOES 261 44474 30.00 23.41 16.60 10.7 12.9 16.3

RELAXO FOOTWEARS 660 39600 44.77 33.74 25.4 24.5 24.8 24.88

Source: Bloomberg, BOBCAPSe

Exhibit 18: PE Chart

0

10

20

30

40

Apr-

11

Jul-11

Oct

-11

Jan-1

2

May-

12

Aug-1

2

Nov-

12

Mar-

13

Jun-

13

Sep

-13

Dec

-13

Apr-

14

Jul-14

Oct

-14

Jan-1

5

x

Forward PE Averageg PE

Avg of last 5 yrs = 20x Current PE = 23x

Source- Bloomberg




Company Profile

Liberty Shoes Ltd (LSL), incorporated in 1986, is the second largest footwear company in India.

Currently manufacturing 50,000 pairs a day. They have 400 exclusive showrooms across India

and have a presence in more than 25 countries, including France, Italy and Germany. Worldwide

it has a distribution network of 150 distributors and more than 6000 multi-brand outlets.

Manufacturing plants are located at Karnal (Haryana), Dehradun and Roorke (Uttarakhand) and

Poanta Sahib (Himachal Pradesh).

Exhibit 19: Journey


Exhibit 20: Share holding pattern

Promoter, 64.9%

FII, 0.0%

DII, 0.1%

Others, 35.0%


1964* Brand Liberty was born.

Got 1st export order

2014* Moving

with a vision to be a Rs.1, 000 Crore Company

1954* A small shop manufacturing 4 pairs a day.

1982* Liberty

brought world class products to domestic

market.

1995* With 10 sub brands

serving all kinds of consumers.

2003* with a

consumer centric strategy,

Liberty started serving customers

2010*

Revolutionized their supply chain for

excellent manufacturing strength.




Exhibit 21: Liberty’s top brands


Exhibit 22: Management details

Adesh Kumar Gupta CEO & Executive Director

Adarsh Gupta Executive Director

Shammi Bansal Executive Director

Sunil Bansal Executive Director

Vivek Bansal Independent Director

Adeesh Kumar Gupta Executive Director

Satish Kumar Goel Non-Executive Director

Raghubar Dayal Independent Director





Exhibit 23: Income Statement

Y/E Mar (Rsmn) FY13 FY14 F Y15E FY16E FY17E FY18E

Net sales 3,620 4,839 5,550 6,510 7,635 8,716

Growth (%) 1.3 33.7 14.7 17.3 17.3 14.2

COGS 1,796 2,532 2,934 3,441 4,036 4,608

Staff Cost 460 580 672 788 924 1,055

R&D Cost (79) 1 2 2 3 3

SG&A Cost 1,142 1,316 1,466 1,687 1,956 2,233

EBITDA 301 410 477 591 716 817

Growth (%) (2.3) 36.2 16.2 24.0 21.2 14.2

Depreciation 104 111 128 150 178 201

EBIT 197 299 348 441 538 616

Other income 2 3 4 4 4 5

Interest paid 143 161 196 207 207 207

Extraordinary/Exceptional items

(4) (2) - - - -

PBT 53 140 156 237 335 414

Tax (1) 8 8 47 67 83

Minority interest - - - - - -

PAT 54 133 148 190 268 331

Non-recurring items 4 2 - - - -

Adjusted PAT 58 135 148 190 268 331

Growth (%) (28) 133 10 28 41 24


Exhibit 24: Balance Sheet

Y/E Mar (Rsmn) FY13 FY14 F Y15E FY16E FY17E FY18E

Cash & Bank balances 147 71 95 64 91 118

Other Current assets 2,263 2,625 2,510 2,918 3,305 3,765

Investments 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04

Net fixed assets 1,004 985 1,007 997 959 898

Goodwill 102 9 9 9 9 9

Other non-current assets - - - - - -

Total assets 3,516 3,690 3,621 3,988 4,364 4,790

Current liabilities 931 1,052 715 833 971 1,111

Borrowings 1,149 1,149 1,361 1,441 1,441 1,441

Other non-current liabilities

68 106 149 170 202 229

Current/Non-current liabilities

2,148 2,308 2,225 2,444 2,613 2,781

Share capital 170 170 170 170 170 170

Reserves & surplus 1,197 1,212 1,226 1,373 1,581 1,838

Shareholders' funds 1,367 1,382 1,397 1,544 1,751 2,009

Minority Interest - - - - - -

Total liabilities 3,516 3,690 3,621 3,988 4,364 4,790





Exhibit 25: Ratio analysis

Y/E Mar FY13 FY14 F Y15E FY16E FY17E FY18E

Per share data (Rs)

EPS 3.4 7.9 8.7 11.1 15.7 19.4

CEPS 9.5 14.4 16.2 19.9 26.2 31.2

DPS - 1.8 2.0 2.5 3.5 4.4

BV 80 81 82 91 103 118

Profitability ratios (%)

Gross margins 37.7 35.7 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0

Operating margins 8.3 8.5 8.6 9.1 9.4 9.4

Net margins 1.6 2.8 2.7 2.9 3.5 3.8

Valuation ratios (x)

PE 24.9 18.7 30.0 23.4 16.6 13.4

P/BV 1.1 1.8 3.2 2.9 2.5 2.2

EV/EBITDA 8.1 8.6 11.4 9.2 7.6 6.7

EV/Sales 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6

RoE 4.3 9.8 10.7 12.9 16.3 17.6

RoCE 8.2 11.1 12.4 12.2 13.8 14.7


Exhibit 26: Cash Flow Statement

Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY13 FY14 F Y15E FY16E FY17E FY18E

Profit after tax 54 133 148 190 268 331

Depreciation 97 93 128 150 178 201

Chg in working capital (16) (198) (180) (268) (219) (291)

Total tax paid 1 (5) - - - -

Net Extra-ordinary income 4 2 - - - -

Cash flow from operations 139 26 96 72 227 241

Capital expenditure (81) (75) (150) (140) (140) (140)

Change in investments - - - - - -

Acquisition of Goodwill (94) 94 - - - -

Cash flow from investments (175) 19 (150) (140) (140) (140)

Free cash flow (36) 44 (54) (68) 87 101

Issue of shares - - - - - -

Net inc/dec in debt 90 0 212 80 - -

Dividend (incl. tax) - (30) (33) (43) (60) (75)

Other financing activities (4) (88) (100) 0 (0) 1

Net Extra-ordinary income (4) (2) - - - -

Cash flow from financing 86 (118) 78 37 (60) (74)

Inc/(Dec) in Cash & Bank bal. 46 (75) 24 (31) 27 27





Disclaimer

BUY. We expect the stock to deliver >15% absolute returns.

HOLD. We expect the stock to deliver 5-15% absolute returns.

SELL. We expect the stock to deliver <5% absolute returns.

Not Rated (NR). We have no investment opinion on the stock.

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Liberty Shoes Ltd. (LSL)