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Low-carbon growth in Brazil?
Gilberto Câmara National Institute for Space Research
~230 scenes Landsat/year
Yearly detailed estimates of clear-cut areas
PRODES: Clear-cut deforestation mapping
15-day alerts of newly deforested large areas
DETER: Real -time Deforestation Monitoring
International credibility helps…
TerraAmazon
“Today, Brazil’s monitoring system is the envy of the world. INPE has its own remote sensing satellite, a joint effort with China, that allows it to publish yearly totals of deforested land that scientists regard as reliable.”
Transparency builds governance
Transparency builds governance
500.000 registrations46 million protests
Myth 1: The impact of deforestation
Deforestation is responsible for 20% of global carbon emissions (Sir David King)
How does he know?
Myth 1: The impact of deforestation
Brazil (1990s): 22.000 km2 average - about 8% of CO2 emissions Brazil (2005-2010 est): 12.000 km2 - about 5% of CO2 emissions
Myth 2: High cost of avoiding deforestationAvoided deforestation costs 30 € per tCO2
Does it really?
Myth 2: The high cost of avoiding deforestation
50.000 km2 of avoided deforestation from 2005-2008How much did it cost?
Myth 2: High cost of avoiding deforestation
cost of monitoring and enforcement (US$ 100 M-year)
Brazil grew on 2005-2008 at 3.5% average
Myth 2: High cost of avoiding deforestation
source: Imazon graphics: Mongabay
Avoiding deforestation in Amazonia has a negative cost
Myth 3: REDD is necessary and beneficial
Money to whom?
migrant workers?
big farmers? I need my SUV
REDD may induce leakages: counterproductive
ALAP BR 319Estradas pavimentadas em 2010Estradas não pavimentadasRios principais
0.0 -0.50Less:0.0 0.10More:
Differences:Protection areas
Sustainable areas
Myth 4: Developed countries are willing to do technology transfer
E2V CCD device CBERS-3 satellite
“E2V will no longer sell CCDs to Brazil because we are committed to ITAR regime” (2008)
Achieving targets = good governance + market incentives
Action Item 2: Brazil´s targets for deforestation
Action Item 2: Biofuels need fair markets
Action Item 3: Markets have a positive rôle
Open Globes
OpenForestMap WikiForest
Scientists, Citizens, Markets
National, int´l agencies
Angola
Congo DR
Action Item 4: Global Forest Information System
Data: INPE´s vision for the future
A constellation of satellites and sensors will provide free earth observation data for all countries on Earth
CBERS as a global satellite
CBERS ground stations will cover most of the Earth’s land mass between 300N and 300S
“A few satellites can cover the entire globe, but there needs to be a system in place to ensure their images are readily available to everyone who needs them. Brazil has set an important precedent by making its Earth-observation data available, and the rest of the world should follow suit.”