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Long-term trends of precipitation verification results for GME, COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE. Ulrich Damrath. Overview. Verification using „Fuzzy“ methods Example for the FSS and he upscaling HSS for January and July Time series for special thresholds and window sizes - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Deutscher Wetterdienst
Long-term trends of precipitation verification results for GME, COSMO-EU and
COSMO-DE Ulrich Damrath
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Overview
Verification using „Fuzzy“ methods
Example for the FSS and he upscaling HSS for January and July
Time series for special thresholds and window sizes
Consisency of precipitation forecasts using the CRA method (update)
current state
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Fuzzy verification January 2008: Accumulated frequency distribution of precipitation, observation and GME
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Fuzzy verification January 2008: Accumulated frequency distribution of precipitation, observation and CEU
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Fuzzy verification January 2008: Accumulated frequency distribution of precipitation, observation and CDE
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Fuzzy verification January 2008: FSS
Monthly average of precipitation: 68 mm
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Fuzzy verification January 2009: FSS
Monthly average of precipitation: 30 mm
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Fuzzy verification January 2010:Frequency distribution of precipitationObservation, GME, CEU and CDE
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Fuzzy verification January 2010: FSS
Monthly average of precipitation: 44 mm
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Accumulated frequency distribution of precipitation
July 2007 (Observation and GME)
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Accumulated frequency distribution of precipitation
July 2007 (Observation and CEU)
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Accumulated frequency distribution of precipitation
July 2007 (Observation and CDE)
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Fuzzy verification July 2007: FSS
Monthly average of precipitation: 120 mm
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Fuzzy verification July 2008: FSS
Monthly average of precipitation: 88 mm
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Fuzzy verification July 2009: FSS
Monthly average of precipitation: 108 mm
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Fuzzy verification July 2010:Frequency distribution of precipitationObservation, GME, CEU and CDE
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Fuzzy verification July 2010: FSS
Monthly average of precipitation: 78 mm
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Fuzzy verification January 2008: HSS(UPS)
Monthly average of precipitation: 68 mm
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Fuzzy verification January 2009: HSS(UPS)
Monthly average of precipitation: 30 mm
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Fuzzy verification January 2010:Frequency distribution of precipitationObservation, GME, CEU and CDE
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Fuzzy verification January 2010: HSS(UPS)
Monthly average of precipitation: 44 mm
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Fuzzy verification July 2007: HSS(UPS)
Monthly average of precipitation: 120 mm
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Fuzzy verification July 2008: HSS(UPS)
Monthly average of precipitation: 88 mm
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Fuzzy verification July 2009: HSS(UPS)
Monthly average of precipitation: 108 mm
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Fuzzy verification July 2010:Frequency distribution of precipitationObservation, GME, CEU and CDE
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Fuzzy verification July 2010: HSS(UPS)
Monthly average of precipitation: 78 mm
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Fuzzy verification: Time series, choice of windows and thresholds
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Fuzzy verification: Time series, ETS UPS GME VV:06-30
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Fuzzy verification: Time series, ETS UPS CEU VV:06-30
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Fuzzy verification: Time series, ETS UPS GME VV:06-18
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Fuzzy verification: Time series, ETS UPS CEU VV:06-18
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Fuzzy verification: Time series, ETS UPS CDE VV:06-18
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Fuzzy verification: Time series, FSS GME VV:06-30
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Fuzzy verification: Time series, FSS CEU VV:06-30
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Fuzzy verification: Time series, FSS GME VV:06-18
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Fuzzy verification: Time series, FSS CEU VV:06-18
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Fuzzy verification: Time series, FSS CDE VV:06-18
Entity-based QPF verification (rain “blobs”) by E. Ebert (BOM Melbourne)Verify the properties of the forecast rain system against the properties of
the observed rain system:
• location• rain area• rain intensity
(mean, maximum)
Observed Forecast
CRA error decompositionThe total mean squared error (MSE) can be written as:
MSEtotal = MSEdisplacement + MSEvolume + MSEpattern
Configuration for the current study:
- “Observations”: forecasts: 06-30 hours
- Forecasts : forecasts: 30-54 hours and
forecasts: 54-78 hours
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Consistency of precipitation forecasts: Parts of error decomposition Autumn 2009
Dark :forecasts 30-54 hLight:forecasts 54-78 h
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Consistency of precipitation forecasts: Parts of error decomposition Winter 2009/10
Dark :forecasts 30-54 hLight:forecasts 54-78 h
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Consistency of precipitation forecasts: Parts of error decomposition Spring 2010
Dark :forecasts 30-54 hLight:forecasts 54-78 h
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Consistency of precipitation forecasts: Parts of error decomposition Summer 2010
Dark :forecasts 30-54 hLight:forecasts 54-78 h
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Consistency of precipitation forecasts: Parts of error decomposition Summer 2010
Dark :forecasts 30-54 hLight:forecasts 54-78 h
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
Summary
Fraction skill score and upscaling ETS are considered. Both scores are relatively high correlated.
Fuzzy verification in general shows best results for low precipitation values and large window sizes
For some months best results can be seen for precipitation amounts around 2 mm (12 h)-1
CEU and CDE models have nearly the same quality and are better than GME especially during summer times.
A positive long term trend of precipitation quality can be seen for low precipitation values and large window sizes. No clear trend is visible for high precipitation values for any window size.
Results for the check of consistency of precipitation forecasts lead to the expected (but proved) results that for high thresholds the inconsistency is most obvious. During winter time pattern errors are dominant. During summer times displacement errors are prevailing.
Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM 2010 @ Moscow
One conclusion
Forecasters sometimes really like CDE.
But the future is CDE-EPS!