Lilla texten med outlines newS newS newS newS newSs3.amazonaws.com/zanran_storage/ · Lilla texten med outlines ... marriage. Two individuals - in this case our companies - agreed

Lilla texten med outlines

Lilla texten som med typsnitt. (ITC AvantGard Gothic)

RiskSpectrum Magazine ispublished by RELCON AB

MAY 2006

R e lT R e e where it all started page 7

Safer Buildings for the Future

newS newS newS newS newSwww.scandpower.com www.relconscandpower.com www.riskspectrum.com

RiskSpectrum Magazine is published by

Relcon Scandpower apRil 2007

Great plans for nuclear in india pages 14-15

natural disasters

A Union made in Risk World!

+RelconScandpower

Read all about the merger on pages 4-6

=




johan Sörman Chief Editor, Relcon Scandpower AB

[email protected]

RiskspectRum magazine apRil 2007

This year, 2007, started with major change for our company. After several years of cooperation, RelcOn and Scandpower joined forces. In nuclear terms, we could use the word fusion to describe our union. Fusion means when two lighter particles get together to form a heavier one and release a lot of energy. I prefer to use the word marriage. Two individuals - in this case our companies - agreed to create a pair, thereby combining the strengths of both parties, leading to greater reward and prosperity for all involved. The two companies comple-mented each other very well, with regard to the know-how, presence on market sectors and company culture. All together contri-butes to making this venture a success.

Climate change and its consequences are on the top agenda for many countries, top politicians and political organisations. Recently a UN-led committee established that recent climate change is mainly caused by human actions, particularly emissions of green house gases.

in October 2006 i visited Australia and New Zealand. My wife and I had this jour-ney in mind for several years and finally we decided to just go for it!

We visited exotic places and saw many animals, several for the first time. During our stay, two news stories dominated the media coverage in Australia: The up and coming World Cricket Series and the

weather, particularly climate change and its influence on daily life. Australia has been suffering from the worst drought that has occurred for hundreds of years. Over large parts of the continent, there has not been any rain for many years. Large rivers have completely dried out and recently forest fires were burning out of control. In Australia it is felt that climate change, accelerated by mankind, is causing these natural disasters.

when we returned from our holidays, we were confronted with an unusually ‘green’ winter in Sweden; the average temperature was several degrees warmer than normal. There was shortage of snow in the north, whilst Western parts of the country suffered from severe floods. Trees were blossoming; and the population was warned about pollen potentially causing allergic reactions. In other words the weather was up-side-down!

I’m sure that we will have many reasons to come back to this subject over the coming years.

Finally, I would like to welcome you to Relcon Scandpower and wish you a prosperous 2007! c

welcome to Relcon Scandpower!

jerzy Grynblat, President

[email protected]

Ph

oto

: thER

ESiA k

öh

lin

Gunilla von Feilitzen Editor and Project leader, GvF Publishing.

Consultant. [email protected]

Riskspectrum magazine is published by Relcon scandpower and distributed to approx. 2500 subscribers in 67 countries world-wide.

For free subscription, contact Relcon Scandpower.

Address Relcon scandpower, Box 1288, se-172 25 sundbyberg, sweden

visiting address englundavägen 9, solna

Tel +46 8 445 21 00 Fax +46 8 445 21 01

e-mail [email protected]

website www.riskspectrum.com

Responsible Publisher Jerzy grynblat, president, Relcon scandpower, [email protected]

chief editor Johan sörman, software sales manager, Relcon scandpower, [email protected]

consultant editor and Project leader gunilla von Feilitzen, gvF publishing,[email protected]

uK consultant editors corporate Risk associates limited, [email protected] swedtranslate, [email protected]

design lotta Westberg layout, [email protected]

Printed in stockholm by alfaprint aB, 2007

Offices in stockholm, göteborg, malmö and uppsala, sweden

Develops and markets Riskspectrum software

provides Risk management consultancy services in:

nuclear power licensing and PSA

Risk Analysis

Health and Safety

Reliability and Maintenance

Quality and Management

Human Factors

product line:

RiskSpectrum®PSA Professional

RiskSpectrum®FT Professional

RiskSpectrum®Analysis Tools (RSAT)

RiskSpectrum®Riskwatcher

RiskSpectrum®FMeA

RiskSpectrum®PSAdoc

c

c

c

c

c

c

RelcOn ScAndPOweR in BRieF

c

c

c

c

c

c

ediTORiAl

cOnTenTSSoftware update Riskspectrum psaDoc - the latest addition to the Riskspectrum family

company news Relcon and scandpower form one of the biggest risk management companies in the world

Software nostalgia RelcOn celebrates 20 years of software development

natural disasters three billion people need better housing – How can we build houses better in areas that suffer from natural disasters?

How To & news update this time we take on the task of explaining the Risk increase Factor.

energy & Politics latest news about energy & politics in different countries

Feature nuclear power is forecasted to increase its share of electricity gene-ration in india from 2 - 20% by 2052

the last few issues of Rs magazine have focused on natural Disasters; later this year we will have a look at what experts envisage for future energy systems. the World energy council (Wec) – an international organisation working on global energy issues – predicts that the world's population will double within 50 - 100 years. consequently electrical energy production will have to double by the year 2050, if it is to keep up with their needs.

johan Sörman Chief Editor

3

4-6

7

8-11

12

13

14-15




MAY 2006

R e lT R e e where it all started page 7

Safer Buildings for the Future

newS

RiskSpectrum Magazine is published by

Relcon Scandpower apRil 2007

Great plans for nuclear in india pages 14-15

natural disasters

A Union made in Risk World!

+RelconScandpower

Read all about the merger on pages 4-6

=

SOFTwARe uPdATe

Offices in stockholm, göteborg, malmö and uppsala, sweden

Develops and markets Riskspectrum software

provides Risk management consultancy services in:

nuclear power licensing and PSA

Risk Analysis

Health and Safety

Reliability and Maintenance

Quality and Management

Human Factors

product line:

RiskSpectrum®PSA Professional

RiskSpectrum®FT Professional

RiskSpectrum®Analysis Tools (RSAT)

RiskSpectrum®Riskwatcher

RiskSpectrum®FMeA

RiskSpectrum®PSAdoc

c

c

c

c

c

c

RelcOn ScAndPOweR in BRieF

c

c

c

c

c

c

ediTORiAl

R iSkSPECtRumAGAzinE APR il 2007 3

From the beginning, Arizona Public Services’ Palo Verde Nuclear Power Station (PVNGS) has shown a keen inte-rest in the development of RiskSpectrum PSADoc. I asked lOnnie BullinGTOn, PSA Engineer at Palo Verde to explain their interest in RiskSpectrum PSADoc:

– A PSA model is made up of assumptions, choices in modelling and facts. Where all of this information is obtained has to be documented to main-tain creditability. Most nuclear power model PSAs are very big, a tool that helps organize the information is essential if there is a desire to maintain an update-able PSA model. As the US nuclear industry progresses and resources come at a premium, a tool to make the job easier becomes necessary.

lonnie continues: – We see the use of PSADoc as being a time saver, a vehicle for ensuring thoroughness by providing a method to maintain like data together, a tool that can provide the intricate links between the model and the pieces of information that created it.

– From past experience we know that if we could generate documentation on demand we would maintain creditability with our reviewers. That in itself would be a huge time saver. Our current inability to provide interested parties with up-to-date information about our model has frustrated us on many occasions.

Using the beta version of RiskSpec-trum PSADoc we found that it was quite easy to input the information from the existing document and then build the document using PSADoc. what are PvnGS´s plans for PSAdoc? – We will be taking a look at how we will start the business of improving our PSA documentation and PSADoc will play an important part in that process. The future of the PVNGS PSA and its usefulness in the current nuclear power arena hinges upon the documentation process, concluded Lonnie Bullington, PSA Engineer at Palo Verde Nuclear Generation Station, USA. c

By: johan Sörman

Save Time with PSAdocmany Riskspectrum licensees today see improving their psa documentation process as their biggest

challenge. in the second quarter of 2007, Relcon scandpower will release the first commercial

version of Riskspectrum psaDoc.

FAcTS RiSKSPecTRuM PSAdOcRiskspectrum psaDoc is targe-

ted at supporting the manage-

ment of psa documentation. it is

a tool designed for managing

psa documentation already in

place, but can also replace an

existing documentation system.

in addition, it enhances and

simplifies the management

of psa documentation and

reporting by establishing direct

links between existing docu-

mentation and records in the

psa database within

Riskspectrum psa professional.

Riskspectrum psaDoc manages

all psa documentation in a

structured, searchable, trace-

able form in a database. since

psaDoc can handle all kinds of

existing documents (Word,

excel, Riskspectrum memos,

etc.) there is no need to invest

a lot of time and effort “conver-

ting” documentation to a new

format.

Significant improvements of

the documentation, using psa-

Doc features, can be achieved

gradually.

Once you have set up links

between your psa model

database and the psaDoc

document database (which is

easy), it is simple to update

documents when model chan-

ges are made, since it is easy to

find all documents related to a

certain item in the model.

Systematic use of References,

keywords and links between

documents improve traceability.

use of Data tables, mcs tables,

importance tables, Data Dia-

grams, importance Diagrams

and uncertainty Diagrams

makes it possible to quickly

produce reports including

professionally formatted data,

directly from the latest version

of the psa model database.

this includes many special

types of tables and diagrams

which otherwise would take

many hours of manual work

to produce.

psaDoc offers, for example, possibilities for improved graphical display of Fault trees.

Figure 1. Riskspectrum psaDoc serves as a means to set up templates for generating generic reports using data directly from the psa model. Documentation already in place is linked to the psaDoc database and is easily included in the reports generated by psaDoc.

Footnote: PSA is an abbreviation for Probabilistic Safety Assessment. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) and QRA (Quantitative Risk Assessment) are often also used.

RiskSpectrum – At the cutting edge

“Our goal is that RiskSpectrum’s collective product line will be at the heart of the new company’s software ‘toolbox’.”

in the discussions prior to the merger of Relcon and Scand-power Risk Management, an important consideration was the RiskSpectrum software. In considering the merger it was appreciated that both companies are well known consultancies in their respective markets, they did not compete for market share – and through merger will complement one another. Add to this the fact that Relcon’s RiskSpectrum products, develo-ped in-house, has a strong brand name and a good reputation in the market which is a real plus factor, according to BjøRn

inGe BAKKen, President of Scandpower AS, in Norway, the pa-rent company of Relcon Scandpower AB in Sweden.

–The fact that a Risk Management company of our size has its own in-house software is an obvious advantage. It gives us a joint, safe platform for many of our analyses. Also, sales, deve-lopment and support of the software are a business concept in themselves. One of our strengths is that is that we use our own software in our consultancy assignments. This automatically

gives a guarantee to our customers that we always are at the cutting edge of technology with regard to the development of our analysis software, says Bjørn Inge Bakken

How will RiskSpectrum’s customers notice that Relcon has merged with Scandpower? – In the longer term we hope to be able to offer a broader soft-ware portfolio and several new services. Through the merger, our wholly-owned subsidiary, Relcon Scandpower AB, has a considerably greater capacity to develop software and better opportunities of offering a broader range and completely new consultant services, and I think our customers will notice that in the future.

Scandpower has over 30 years’ experience of safety ana-lyses in the oil and gas industry. How can your experience within these areas benefit the development of software?– Our oil and gas industry experience will provide an

Relcon aB has merged with scandpower in sweden and formed Relcon scandpower aB. together

with the norwegian parent company, scandpower as, the new company will be among the biggest

consultancy companies in the area of Risk management in scandinavia.

Riskspectrum’s customers can look forward to new products, more services and a continued emphasis on support and training activities. Bjørn inge Bakken, president of scandpower as, norway and Jerzy grynblat, president of Relcon scandpower aB, sweden at the scandpower head office in kjeller, norway.

Bjørn inge Bakken, President of Scandpower AS in norway

4 R i SkSPECtRumAGAzinE APR il 2007

Setting the Standard for the Scandpower Group Software

RiskSpectrum – At the cutting edge

important input to the further development of RiskSpec-trum, even though much of the methodology we use is the same as that used in the nuclear power industry.

– Scandpower has a number of software products, and several of these are readily integrated into the Risk-Spectrum family. integration of Scandpower software into the RiskSpectrum family will be a focus for the future. It could be a matter of data bases, leak frequency calculations as well as consequence modelling. Scand- power also applies advanced CFD, Computational Fluid Dynamics, software tools for fire-, smoke- and explosion simulations. Even if these CFD tools may not be suitable for integration into the RiskSpectrum Software such tools may be of interest also to the nuclear industry. Our goal is that the RiskSpectrum family of products will be at the heart of the toolbox for the new operations.

what is the position of RiskSpectrum in Scandpower’s market? – RiskSpectrum has a good position in the market. I think there is considerable potential for increasing the use of RiskSpectrum, both within the oil and gas industry, and within the transport sector. Relcon and RiskSpectrum maintained high standards in relation to other products and companies in the international safety analysis market. As Relcon Scandpower AB we aim to continue this good practise.

– We will market RiskSpectrum and introduce it to Scandpower’s existing customers, both within the oil and gas sector, and the transport and energy sectors. The fact that we have more users and customers from a greater number of sectors, also means that there is a need for development of software – new users within other areas of use make new demands on the product. We will define and prioritise these areas based on the joint experience of Relcon and Scandpower consultants, and the feedback from our respective customers. For RiskSpectrum to maintain its leading position; continual development is absolutely essential. Software which is not developed - dies! With the renaissance of the nuclear power industry – many countries are in the initial phases of expanding their nuclear power industries – it is important for us to ensure that RiskSpectrum maintains its strong position in the nuclear power market as the best tool for PSA analyses.

what are your thoughts about RiskSpectrum support and training activities?– Training and support activities are two extremely important areas. We meet our customers, and through this we get a good understanding of their work situation and how they use our products. Our customers give us important feedback on the development of our software, and we obtain good insights into the ways in which RiskSpectrum is used; this ensures that it is utilised to its full potential. For us, of course, it gives a means of marketing ourselves, not only the product but also the company, says Bjørn Inge Bakken, President of Scand-power AS in Norway. c

By: Gunilla von Feilitzen MORe

The Scandpower Story The history of Scandpower began on a

summer’s day in 1971, when the Scandpower

company was formally established. The

norwegian Minister of industry at the time,

Finn lied, had urged four of norway’s largest

companies to form an engineering company

in order to assist the growing nuclear and

petroleum industry. norsk Hydro, elkem,

Hafslund and Årdal og Sundals verk all

entered as owners of the new company.

during the 1950 and 1960s, norway had a

good lead as regards research and develop-

ment within nuclear power technology. norway’s

first nuclear power station, jeeP 1 at Kjeller

outside Oslo, was completed in 1951. Only

canada and the four great powers at that time,

the uSA, the Soviet union, France and Great

Britain already had nuclear power stations in

operation. jeeP 1 had a relatively short life, and

in 1959, jeeP 2 was constructed, and it is the

reactor that is at Kjeller today.

during the initial years of Scandpower’s

business, investigation and planning within the

nuclear industry was an important field for the

company. Right from the start, the nuclear

industry had taken safety, quality and environ-

ment very seriously, contributing to an

expanding body of knowledge as regards use

of risk analyses, reliability analyses and

systematisation of failure data, within the

area of risk management. As early as 1974,

Scandpower AS established a subsidiary

company in washington dc, Scandpower inc.

Scandpower AB in Sweden was established

in 1988.

As the nuclear industry lost its popularity in

norway, the focus turned to the growing petro-

leum industry. However, the nuclear sector has

remained an important international market for

the company. The first risk analysis performed

in the norwegian sector in the late 1970s was

the “condeep-analysis”, completed by Scand-

power as a joint effort with several companies

in the norwegian oil and gas industry. in 1984,

Scandpower performed its first HAZOP (HAZard

and Operability) study.

After the tragic train accident on Åsta in

2000, the focus was placed on safety in the

transport sector, and especially in the railway

industry. Scandpower quickly responded to the

challenge, and soon gained expertise and

experience in the area.

Prior to the merger with RelcOn AB the

Scandpower group of companies had 150

specialists at 9 office locations in norway,

Sweden, uSA, china and dubai.

Sources : www.scandpower.com

cOMPAnY newS

Scandpower SoftwareScandpower has developed a number of its

own software programs. The company also

uses a number of special programs develo-

ped by other companies, which are either

commercially available or to which Scand-

power has access via strategic alliances.

“BlowFAM” – a software tool for blow-out

risk analysis; applied during the design

phase of a platform or rig, or for future

well operations on existing units. Blow-out

risk analyses is used for a wide range of

purposes; from providing input to Quantita-

tive Risk Analysis or Safety cases, input to

environmental Risk Analysis or emergency

Preparedness Planning, as well as detailed

analyses of specific well operations.

Sponsors of BlowFAM development have

been: Statoil, BP, elf enterprise, Health &

Safety executive (HSe), Saga Petroleum,

norsk Hydro, Shell, exxonMobil, and SinTeF.

cOSAc – in 1992 Scandpower develo-

ped a concept Safety catalogue for safety

evaluation purposes in the early phases of

an offshore field development. The cata-

logue was devised as a tool to aid in the

identification and evaluation of safety. in

1996, a joint industry project was initiated,

the objective being to develop a Pc-tool

based on the concept Safety catalogue.

The result - cOSAc – which has been further

developed over the past 10 years.

MiRi – a flexible, effective environ-

mental accounting system, MiRi, is suitable

for small, medium sized, and complex

organisations alike.

norway’s largest Sources of energyOil – norway is europe’s second largest

producer of oil. in 1996, the country was

the world’s third largest exporter of crude

oil. Production is exclusively offshore; in

the north Sea and the norwegian Sea.

GAS - norway is europe’s fourth largest

producer of natural gas.

HYdROelecTRic POweR - norway is the

world’s seventh largest generator of

hydroelectric power.

nucleAR POweR - The norwegian

Parliament shelved plans for an expansion

of nuclear power in 1979.

Sources: www.norge.se De offisielle norske nettstedet i Sverige.

Same Skills – different Markets

– Our ways of working does not differ to any great extent. We are both employee-owned companies that work with the same type of assignments within somewhat different areas, says liAne HAeFFleR,

Manager of the Relcon Scandpower AB, Gothenburg office.

How will RelcOn’s old customers notice that the company is now called Relcon Scandpower AB?– Relcon and Scandpower supplement one another and can, together, offer our custo-mers completely different holistic solutions within the risk area. At present, Scandpower has a total of 150 consultants with various areas of experience and competence, servi-ces and methods – from perhaps somewhat differing sectors than Relcon is used to – but services which quite clearly function just as well within the nuclear power industry.

On the other hand, Scandpower’s customers will have access to RiskSpectrum and PSA methodology and consultants with special competence within the nuclear power industry.

As the nuclear power industry is growing strongly in various parts of the world, including Asia, Scandpower’s offices in Beijing (China) and also in Houston (USA) are welcome additions which enable service to former Relcon’s customers to be improved yet further.

Scandpower’s offices in Sweden – uppsala and Göteborg – are well located for customers from the nuclear power stations of Forsmark and Ringhals.

– Within Scandpower, our employees are welcome to make a request for what he/she wants to work with and where. Many of our consultants are moving between our offices in Norway, Sweden, China and the USA. That makes it possible for us to run projects all over the world with project teams who suit the wishes of our customers. However, it makes considerable demands on our ma-nagement, but it also gives our consultants big opportunities of development and our customers a guarantee that they get the best possible competence for the assignment which has been ordered, says Liane Haeffler. c

By: Gunilla von Feilitzen

liane Haeffler, manager of Relcon scandpower aB in goth-enburg

Services that can directly benefit RelcOn's customers are for example: Risk Analysis – Scandpower has

during 30 years of experience deve-

loped know-how, methods and tools

to be used in risk analysis for different

kinds of industry. we provide qualita-

tive and quantitative risk analyses for

complex technical systems, but also

project risk analysis and risk analysis

of organizational changes.

Audits – Based on each

organisation's individual needs,

Scandpower assists in defining

verification and audit requirements.

we also perform gap analysis to

identify the difference between

current capabilities/practices and a

new situation, verification of operation

and maintenance, audits to verify that

there are efficient Health, Safety and

environment management systems in

place to handle actual internal and

external requirements, independent

review and verification of reports

and analyses within all areas of HSe,

quality and reliability and scrutiny of

subcontractors.

Man, Technique and Organisation

(MTO) – Scandpower has extensive

experience in performing working

environment and MTO analyses and

assistance both in design and opera-

tion for all kinds of facilities. Our custo-

mers has increased their attention on

methods and strategies that address

the combination and influence of

human, technical and organisational

factors. The MTO methodology

visualises what can go wrong during a

work process, what kind of deviations

that might occur, and describes the

established barriers. MTO methodo-

logy can be used in all phases of a

project, from design to operation and

is also a powerful method during

incident and accident investigation.

crisis intervention in Offshore

Production (cRiOP) – Scandpower

performs systematic analyses of the

interfaces between control room

operators, process instrumentation

and other personnel at the facility

during accidental situations. cRiOP

analysis can provide effective inter-

faces, a better working environment

in the control room, reduced risk for

errors and increased productivity.


cOMPAnY newS

Twenty Years of Successful Software development– at Relcon scandpower we recognise that Riskspectrum software is one

of the cornerstones in our company’s success and the fact that we are the

leading psa consultants in scandinavia vouch for its continued develop-

ment in the future, says ceO, Jerzy grynblat. it has now passed 20 years

since the first release of ReltRee - the predecessor of Riskspectrum software.

FAcTS1986 – RelcOn´s first software, ReltRee

is released.

it is written for the ms-DOs operating

system and included a Fault tree editor

and a module for calculating minimal

cut sets (Relmcs).

1991– Riskspectrum for DOs is released.

this was a great step forward from

ReltRee and included more advanced

modelling possibilities which at the time

were unique.

1992 – the complete psa tool

Riskspectrum psa for DOs was released.

this software was to become the choice

of the largest companies in the nuclear,

aerospace and defence industries. there

are mainly two things that made it so

popular: its integrated event and Fault

tree analysis, and the module for

producing mcss was the fastest Fault tree

solving algorithm in the world.

1998 – Riskspectrum psa professional

version 1.00 was released.

this is the third generation Fault tree

software produced by RelcOn.

Riskspectrum psa professional is a

Windows 16-bit application.

2002 – RelcOn released the first

version of a new addition to the Riskspec-

trum family, Riskspectrum RiskWatcher.

Riskspectrum RiskWatcher is a risk monitor

that is intended to be used in conjunction

with Riskspectrum psa professional

primarily at nuclear power plants.

2004 – Riskspectrum Fmea version

1.00 is released.

Riskspectrum Fmea facilitates the quality

assurance process by providing a rea-

dily traceable means of documenting

important information for components

(modelling assumptions etc.,) when

performing a risk and availability analysis.

2006/2007 – Riskspectrum psa

32-bit application for the ms .net platform.

this is the fourth generation Fault and

event tree software produced by RelcOn.

Today RiskSpectrum software is licensed for use at 47% of the world’s nuclear power plants. In addition a number of licensees can be found in the transporta-tion, military, space and aviation industry. – I believe that there are four main reasons to the successful start of software development at RELCON: Firstly we choose the PC as the platform for the RELTREE software at a time when it was not certain that this platform was going to be the prevailing one. Secondly, the calculation engine that RELTREE was based on was as fast as or even faster than main frame solution engines used in 1986. Third, the user friendliness and quality of RELTREE code was excellent, and last but not least, at that time the regulatory bodies around the world issued requirements for PSA for nuclear power plant licensees, says CEO, jeRZY GRYnBlAT.

The Man Behind RelTReeIn 1984, almost immediately after RELCON was founded, ulF BeRG was recruited. At the time, Ulf worked with PSA re-search and development at the Department of Nuclear Power

Safety at the Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm. Ulf already had a deep inte-rest in software development and had in his spare time developed a fault tree software.

– Fault trees at this time where solved using main frame computer codes, and required a lot of CPU time. CPU time was expensive and solving fault trees was thereby very costly. There was clearly a business opportunity here for more efficient codes, says Ulf Berg.

Ulf thought that with the right code, PCs could readily be used to solve fault trees just as fast and at a fraction of the cost.

– It would also be much more conve-nient to have the solution engine on desk-top PCs rather than a provider’s mainfra-me, and there was a need for a better user interface and better management of the large and complex PSA models, says Ulf.

Based on his earlier fault tree work, Ulf created RELTREE in less than eight months, and it was completed by the end of 1985. RELTREE included a database to store data in, a graphical fault tree editor and a solution engine.

However RELTREE was not alone in the market place. Companies such as ABB-Atom had also developed fault tree codes, and there were several competitors from the USA and Germany. It was only after tough competition that RELCON succeeded in convincing the Swedish utilities of the merits of using RELTREE for their PSAs.

But Ulf saw RELTREE as only the first step in fulfilling his vision of a complete PSA tool with sophisticated database management and an ability to solve entire PSA models including event trees. To accomplish this, a much more powerful solution engine was needed.

A breakthrough was achieved in 1988 when Ulf developed a new version of the solution engine that was orders of magnitude faster than any other fault tree solution code existing at the time.

At that time I knew it would be possible to develop a large scale PSA software, says Ulf. After intense design and planning, the development of RiskSpectrum started in 1989 and was completed in 1992.

Success soon followed. All but one of the nuclear power utilities in Germany decided to use RiskSpectrum for their PSAs, with Siemens KWU (now AREVA NP) being of great help to RELCON at this time. In France, CEA (now IRSN), EdF and Framatome (now AREVA NP) soon also purchased licenses. Since then, in many countries with nuclear power, RiskSpectrum have become more or less the standard tool for PSA activities. c

ulf Berg

We still have an old pc with ReltRee installed at the Relcon scandpower stockholm office.


By: johan Sörman


nATuRAl diSASTeR

How does your organisation differ from organisations such as emergency Architects, Architecture of development, Architecture for Humanity?– In touch with our Internatio-nal goals, we are not an emer-gency group. The organisation is working on a long term basis, and we always work together with international organisa-tions such as the Red Cross etc.–We try to specialise in our own job, architecture, urban design, etc, especially “housing” pro-blems, says eRic SeliS, President of Architectes sans Frontières (architects without Borders) in Belgium, who is also a member of Architecture sans Frontières International Network.

does your organisation have long term goals or do you work case by case on a shorter term basis?– In Belgium, we have some programmes on a short term basis, but with some ideas for the long term. We’re working on an idea of “Architect pro Deo”; this is a system in which government pays architects to give advice to people who don’t have access to “the architect”, in the third world.

what is significant as regards emergency architecture? – We saw that in a lot of disasters the problems could be prevented, everybody knows where earthquakes are pos-sible, where the tsunami hit. Architects and contractors have to be convinced that every area has its own problem and that building has to be adapted, ... but financial matters mean that other things are decided, ... Local and sustainable solutions are a central point of view in our work; we support local industries, building systems, materials, all with an actual attitude to solving problems.

Are there areas where you consider it is not worth rebuilding? And if so – how do you prevent people from settling there?– Of course. This is a matter for government because it’s a question of general planning on the use of space. We can give advice, and if we grow we can perhaps be more important in discussions, concludes Eric Selis. c

FAcTSArchitectes sans Frontières Works with slow social hou-

sing construction in disaster

areas, and has its head of-

fice in Belgium. asF supports

economic, social and cultural

development on a national

level. architectes san Frontières

(asF) operates 90% in Belgium

– giving advice in improving

living conditions for poor

people, refugees – and 10% in

sri lanka and indonesia – re-

construction after the tsunami

in collaboration with the Red

cross – the congo, tanzania

and other places.

asF, Belgium is one of 20 sepa-

rate activities that cooperate

through the international net-

work of aFs international. the

organisations of the various

countries are – asF-españa,

architecture & Développe-

ment, asF-France, asF-portugal,

asF-italia Onlus (Roma),

asF-perú, aWF-australia, asF-uk

(cambridge), asF-Belgium,

aRc•peace (architects Desig-

ners and planners for social

Responsibility) and africa ’70.

more about the special inter-

national goals can be found

under the charter of Hasselt on

the aFs international website.

For more information: www.asf-international.org

eric selis.

“In general, rich people have the opportunity and the possibility of living in areas without natural problems and using the building materials they want, other people have the rest…” cameron sinclair

“More often than not the design industry focuses its attention on building bet-ter structures for the very few, rather than improving the environment for the community as a whole.”

FAcTSArchitecture for Humanity (AFH)this is a new York based-network

which works with providing

solutions to humanitarian crises

throughout the world through

architecture and design. the

organisation is governed by a

board and an advisory bureau,

which are changed every other

year. in each new project, experts

from various areas are collected

together in a special advisory

council. aFH works at present in

long term construction in india,

sri lanka and the gulf coast of

the united states. it is also invol-

ved in supporting a number of

health projects in tanzania and

south africa.

there are also a number of in-

dependent local chapters which

are working throughout the

united states, and a number of

international initiatives including

liberia, mexico and Vietnam.

For more information: www.architectureforhumanity.org

Today, one billion people live in slum areas. if nothing is done, it is estimated that this figure will rise to two billion in 15 years’ time,

which will be a disaster for both developing countries and developed countries alike. Additionally, there is the increased threat

of natural disasters, which make many parts of the world directly unsuitable for housing, and others have to learn to build better,

more secure housing. it is estimated that today, three billion people need better housing. Many organisations feel called to help

with both short term and long term solutions. Architects without Borders work mainly with social housing construction in disaster

areas, while Architecture for Humanity has its focus on long term reconstruction and on responding to systemic issues.

They are Building a Safer world


Other organisations that work with, or within, the same areas.

eMeRGencY ARcHiTecTS

The organisation specialises in archi-

tecture in connection with disasters. This

can involve everything from advice to

physically constructing a community,

and it is active on all continents. Their

work in indonesia after the Tsunami

gained the distinction of design for All

Awards from the iFi, the international

Federation of interior Architects.

Headquarters is in Amiens in France,

and it is financed by donations.

For more information:

www.archi-urgent.com

ARcHiTecTuRe OF develOPMenT, A&d

A&d has an involvement in international

solidarity, which is based on the need to

re-emphasise the idea of architectural

intervention with the needs expressed by

social realities. A&d has offices in Paris,

Morocco and india


http://www.archidev.org/index.php

cOnGReSS FOR THe new uRBAniSM, cnu

A group of experts who have the intention

of building up the eleven coastal cities

in Mississippi to become good American

cities. This, through planning and

constructing communities that are

more visually attractive, kinder to the

environment, more diversified and safer

as regards hurricanes.

For more information: www.cnu.org

How does Architecture for Humanity differ from other organisations in your line of business?– Our organization is primarily known for being a conduit between the design and huma-nitarian world. We link archi-tects to communities and non-governmental organisations and vice versa. Over the past seven years our focus has been on long term reconstruction and responding to systemic issues. We began by respon-ding to the housing needs of returning refugees in Kosovo, and a few years later we were developing mobile health clinics to combat HIV/AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa, says cAMeROn SinclAiR, Executive Director and Co-founder of Architecture for Humanity.

do you cooperate with other organisations or do you distinguish between yours and other organisations missions?– Over the years we’ve had around 8000 designers from 56 countries involved in our efforts. All these groups work on different humanitarian aspects based on socially re-sponsible design, and in some circumstances we even partner together. Over the years we’ve all become good friends and

often recommend on another to other groups - sometimes due to the amount of work we are taking on, other times be-cause of location. (Architects sans Frontières is in Australia and Emergency Architects is in France).

– You should take into consideration the fact that currently one in seven people live in inadequate housing, and by 2025 it will be close to one in three. That’s three bil-lion people looking for better housing solutions – there is certainly room for many more organisations.

does your organisation have long term goals or do you work case by case on a shorter term basis?– There are certainly phases in which we work. More often than not we begin with “small victories” that bring a feeling that the community can come back. Things like transitional schools and basic amenities become anchors in which a community can grow. Jaime Lerner coined the phrase “Ur-ban Acupuncture”, whereby doing a small but effective project within a community can create huge social and eco-nomic change. In his case, the favelas of Brazil. We believe that we can create this, not on-ly for existing settlements but also those recovering from a natural or man-made disaster.–While these small victories are happening, we also begin longer term projects using a collaborative design process

that incorporates a huge num-ber of stakeholders, the most important of which is the com-munity itself. As these projects take time, more often than not we will spend up to five years working with a specific group.

what is significant for emergency architecture? – As noted, we do not focus on “emergency architecture” but more on the long term renewal of communities. This means that not only are we looking to build structures that can withstand future disasters, but the affected communities are heavily involved in the design and reconstruction process.

– Additionally, we develop structures that use appropriate construction technologies and materials - the process is not sustainable if it cannot be replicated and maintained by the community itself. In many instances we also hold skills training workshops to teach new skills and help to initiate new businesses.

Are there areas that you con-sider not worth rebuilding? –We would consider almost all areas. The only exception is in an area that is in a state of conflict - you cannot develop long lasting construction while destruction is still going on. If a community wants to stay in an area and it makes sense eco-nomically and for the future of that community, then we need to find better ways of building rather than imposing reloca-tion,” says Cameron Sinclair. c a house designed by aFH for the tsunami struck areas

in sri lanka.

extended roof base protects against monsoon rain and solar radiation

Hot air inside the house rises and is let out through vents in the roof

improved ventilation with the house longest side facing the predo-minant wind direction

PhotoS: ERiC SEliS

They are Building a Safer worldBy: Gunilla von Feilitzen

FAcTS And FiGuReS every year, 250 million people

suffer as a result of the after-effects

of natural disasters.

Half of the world’s inhabitants

(about three billion) live in

disaster-risk areas.

The number of natural disasters

has increased almost threefold, and

the number of victims has increased

threefold since the 1970s. On the

other hand, the death toll has

noticeably decreased.

One third of the 100 million

people that the world Food

Programme supports are victims

of natural disasters.

Hunger and hunger-related

sicknesses kill as many people each

week as all those killed in the tidal

wave disaster in South east Asia.

The desire to help in connection

with the Asian tsunami disaster

broke many records. it achieved a

place in the Guinness Book of

Records when people in Britain

gave more on-line donations over a

24-hour period than ever before.

Source: www.global.finland.fi

THe cOSTS OF diSASTeRS

c during 2004, weather-related

disasters caused losses of 104

billion dollars, double the amount

of the previous year. Katrina alone

is expected to cost over 100 billion

dollars.

c Since 1980, weather-related

disasters have caused a total of over

600,000 deaths and cost 1.4 billion

dollars. (The number of deaths per

year rose from 22,000 during the

1980s to 33,000 during the 1990s).

Average losses from these disasters

rose to 67 billion dollars per year

during the last decade. (during the

1980s, the equivalent sum was about

26 billion dollars).

c From the start of the 1900s, the

average global temperature has

increased by 0.6 degrees

centigrade. The rate of this increase

after 1976 was three times greater

than the rate of increase during

the century as a whole.

The concentration of carbon dioxide

in the atmosphere last year was

16 percent greater than in 1960.

c An estimated 30 million people

were classed as environmental

refugees last year. The undP

suspects that the number will

increase to 50 million in 2010 and

150 million in 2050.

Source: www.worldwatch.org

nATuRAl diSASTeR


FAcTS Other projects which are in progress in Holland. the floating city quarter of leeuwarden with advanced houseboats. where it is estimated that 150 floating homes will be built per year. c the construction of a floating village outside amsterdam’s

schiphol airport. according to the plans, construction of 12 000 amphibious and floating buildings; dwellings, and hospital, schools, businesses, etc. that make up a community, will be built, with construction commencing in four years’ time.

Source: The newspaper, Guardian Unlimited, http://arts.guardian.co.uk

instead of fighting the water, researchers, architects and politicians are attempting to unite in various construction projects to find durable housing solutions in which people can live in harmony with the future climate conditions.

The government has classified 15 areas as future flood zones (a total of 5 000 square kilometres of the country’s total land area of 34 000 square kilometres). At present, these future flood zones are dry areas which within the next 50 years will experience overflow from waterways, canals and the sea, or of water from other areas considered more important to save. Within these areas it is not possible to build in the normal way: even the roads have to be secured against water.

Architects in the Netherlands estimate that in 20 years’ time, they will design 20 000 floating homes per year.

During the next 50 years, at least 40% of the shortage of land suitable for development can be replaced by floating housing structures.

Maasbommel village – Ready for settler. One of many projects is the construction of the Maasbommel village, on the river Maas, some distance south of Amsterdam. The village, which was ready for moving in at the beginning of this year, consists of 36 “amphibious houses” and 14 so-called “floating houses”.

The “amphibious houses”, which are built on the shore just outside the dykes that enclose the village, consist of light-weight wood structures built on a base of hollow concrete blocks which function as

pontoons. These are secured in the ground at the water’s edge. The floating concrete blocks are, as with the actual hou-sing structures, connected to steel mooring posts, two for each house. These steel moo-ring posts are secured in the ground, and connected to the houses with so-called sli-ding rings, which enable the houses to float freely up and down. When the rivers floods, the buildings can rise as much as 5.5 metres. A special cushioning system prevents a fee-ling of discomfort and evens out the effect of waves on the movement of the house. Electrical connections, gas, water and se-wage drainage go in PVC flexible pipes inside the vertical mooring posts, and lead up to the shore and the municipal network.

The 14 “floating houses” are a type of advanced houseboat, constructed in the same way as the homes described above, but without being secured to the ground with concrete and steel mooring posts. The boat and berth, essential at high water, are included as standard.

dr cris Zevenbergen, Environment Director of the construction company, Dura Vermeer, and driving force behind the Maas-bommel project, believes the solution to future flooded zones is to build amphibious houses, new towns and extensions of exis-ting cities on flood plains and river banks.

what do you think are the most acute pro-blems involved in housing on water in the netherlands today?– For the common Dutchmen it is almost

according to the united nations’ panel on climate

change, rainfall in parts of the netherlands will

increase by up to 25% during this century, and

sea level is expected to rise by over one metre.

about a quarter of the netherlands already lies

below sea level, and three-quarters of the

population live in these areas.

The dutch Makes Peace with Mother nature

FAcTS Other projects which are in progress in Holland. the floating city quarter of leeuwarden with advanced houseboats. where it is estimated that 150 floating homes will be built per year. c the construction of a floating village outside amsterdam’s

schiphol airport. according to the plans, construction of 12 000 amphibious and floating buildings; dwellings, and hospital, schools, businesses, etc. that make up a community, will be built, with construction commencing in four years’ time.

Source: The newspaper, Guardian Unlimited, http://arts.guardian.co.uk

One of many projects are maasbommel Village, a group of 36 amphibious houses on the river maas, south of amsterdam.

impossible to get a site to build a house in water. Our environmental planning is very strict and will not permit habitation in areas outside the normal suburbs. So buying a house in water is very difficult.

– Thereby the social status of living on water is very low. In Holland these houses are called “woonboten” (a type of ship to live on), and in people’s minds these are not real houses.

Technically there are no problems. Everything is possible. There are beautiful designs and plans. Gradually, we are seeing that bigger spatial developments incorporate more and more water in the outlines and houses that are situated in this water.

what are the toughest obstacles to overcome in the future?– Keeping the Netherlands dry in the face of changing climate, rising sea level and decline of our land surface, jurisdiction (allowing people to live in rural surroundings), social acceptance of living on water, influencing political choices for living on the water.

To what extent do you think it is possible to build disaster-safe houses? what magni-tude of disaster do you design houses for?– It is not possible to build safely for the grea-test disasters. As with earthquakes, building to withstand a certain level of disaster is pos-sible. Above that everything will be destroyed. Dura Vermeer is busy with the development of flood-proof and wet-proof houses. This means houses that can withstand a flood situation (with normal water speed and no big drifting

objects). The difference between the two de-signs is that the flood-proof houses are capable of keeping out the flood stream. The wet-proof houses let the water come in and are designed to accept the water for a short period of time.

How will people live in the netherlands in 50 years from now? – We build houses with a lifecycle of at least 50 years. So we are already talking about the next generation of housing.

– I think it will be several generations before we see structural changes in occupation in the Netherlands. The average age of people in the Netherlands is increasing, so smaller communities will arise. Maybe some of them will be water-related.

do you think the requirements in the way we design and plan our communities for the future will be different from those of today?– In the Netherlands, our environmental planning is slowly changing. More and more commercial organisations (building companies, etc) are involved in environmental planning and so is Dura Vermeer. As environ-mental planning becomes more of an issue that does not just concern government, our planning system has to change to allow more participants in planning activities. I think that the requirements regarding the way we design and plan our communities for the future will be different from those of today,” says Dr Cris Zevenbergen, Environment Director of the construction company, Dura Vermeer. c

By: Gunilla von Feilitzen

Photo: dR CRiS zEvEnBERGEn www.duravermeer.nl

FAcTS And FiGuReS veGeTATiOn SAve liveS

The sea surface has risen by

15 cm during the 1900s. if all the

ice in Antarctica and Greenland

were to vanish completely, the sea

level would rise by 72 metres.

Two out of every five people in

the world live less than 100 kilo-

metres from a coast. Over half of

the world’s coastline is threatened

by future developments. Only a

small rise in sea levels would, for

example, wash Holland away if

combined with a powerful hur-

ricane directed towards the sea

coast. environmentalists advocate

a defence line: plantations of

mangrove swamps, to function

as breakwaters. earlier warning

systems and more vegetation in

the proximity of the coast could,

perhaps, have saved many of the

1,800 people who drowned or who

were hit by objects in the water at

Khao lak in Thailand.

As accounts from the affected

countries became known, a

pattern emerged: in communities

that lay behind a belt of mang-

roves, as in parts of the coast of

india or behind an intact coral

reef as in the Maldives; damage

and deaths were less than in

places which were directly hit by

the waves. during the last decade,

prawn farms, hotel complexes and

industry have been constructed on

large areas that were previously

covered by mangrove.

Source: www.svd.se , www.nationalgeographic.com

FlOOded iSlAndS

Many islands and major cities

may be flooded before 2100 on

account of climate change

according to an analysis publis-

hed in the journal, Science.

Over 100 million people risk being

affected by a rise in sea level of

about one metre.

The effects of rising sea levels are

already a problem. islands such as

Tonga, Tuvalu, the Solomon islands

and the Maldives are affected,

despite the fact that the sea level

has only risen by not more than

perhaps 10 centimetres. There is

practically no hope of saving smal-

ler islands, such as the Maldives.

“This is an enormously important

matter,” says Gary Griggs, director

of the institute of Marine Sciences

at the university of california.

Source: www.msi.ucsb.edu

www.sciencemag.org


How is it generated and can i use it without limitations? these are questions we often receive at [email protected].

HOw-TO

what is the Risk increase Factor?

newS uPdATe

The Risk increase factor (RIF, also known as Risk Achievement Worth, RAW) is a measure that can give you information about how important a component or

a system is based on a fault tree/event tree model that you use for safety or reliability calculations.

In RiskSpectrum PSA Professional the importance measure, Risk Increase Factor (RIF also known as Risk Ac-hievement Worth, RAW) is calculated in the following way.QTOP is the top event probability (unavailability or frequen-cy, depending on the type of calculation in the MCS-analysis specification). This can be the top event probability for a gate in a fault tree, a sequence, or a consequence in an event tree. When calculating RIF for a basic event, its probability is set to 1.0 and the MCS list, generated when calculating QTOP, is recalculated (using Min Cut Upper Bound, MCUB). This new top event probability QTOP(Q=1), is used for calcula-ting the risk increase factor using the following formula:

RIFs for CCF-Groups, Parame-ters, Event Groups, Attributes, Components and Systems are calculated by setting Q=1 for

all basic events with a relationship to the CCF-Groups, Para-meters, Event Groups, Attributes, Components and Systems.

Note: RiskSpectrum PSA Professional does not minimise the MCS list when calculating QTOP(Q=1) as this would take too long.

How can i use the result? In most cases, RIF for basic events is conservative due to all the non-minimal cut sets that are included in the calculation of QTOP(Q=1).

In a truncated MCS list it is, however not certain that the RIF are always conservative. A system that has a very low failure probability may be represented in only a few MCS (in the saved MCS list) due to the cut-off applied. In this case the RIF for a component (basic event) in that system may be much lower than it would in the complete MCS list (if such a list could be generated within acceptable timescales).

Using RiskSpectrum, (or any other code that does not minimise when calculating RIF) you can only be 100% sure that a basic event RIF is correct when running the im-portance calculations in RiskSpectrum PSA Professional when a MCS list is the complete representation of the fault tree logic and the MCS list will stay minimal if you remove the basic event from it.

So what can we do when all we have are truncated MCS? Two methods have been identified:1. RIF for a System is equal to RIF for the Basic Event, in that system, with the highest RIF.2. Regenerate MCS List with the System unavailable and hand-calculate RIF. c

dOeS THiS SOund cOMPlicATed? don´t worry. On our website www.riskspectrum.com you can find a more elaborate article with examples.

well Attended RiskSpectrum user Meetingsthe third international Risk-

spectrum user meeting was,

as previous years, organised

by corporate Risk and asso-

ciates in the recently restored

theatre of the old town Hall

building in leatherhead south

of london. the meeting was

held in november 2006 and

attracted some 20 partici-

pants from 9 countries.

in February 2007, the annual

Riskspectrum users meeting

for german licensees was

held at aReVa, Framatome

anp offices in erlangen and

was as always, well attended.

the user meetings always

include many interesting

topics and lively discussions.

On the support pages at

www.riskspectrum.com

you can read more about the

issues discussed.

Relcon scandpower

organises a 5 days

Riskspectrum training

course twice a year

in stockholm,

sweden. 2007 they

are scheduled

28 may – 1 June and

3 – 7 December.

there are three basic

packages included

in our courses:

One-day

preparatory course

in methods for safety,

reliability and

availability analysis.

Riskspectrum Ft

professional training.

Riskspectrum psa

professional training.

Riskspectrum psa

level 2 training.

Fully Booked courses 2006

sweden’s

prime

minister,

Fredrik

Reinfeldt,

is worried

about the effects of global

Warming on our climate.

– i do not rule out the pos-

sibility that new nuclear

units will be built in swe-

den in the future, he says in

an interview in the swedish

newspaper sydsvenskan.

– the existence of nuclear

power plants in sweden

has for many years been

considered as being

limited. as long as focus

is on phasing out the use

of oil and coal, nuclear

will play a role in sweden,

says Fredrik Reinfeldt to

sydsvenskan.

www.sydsvenskan.se

Prime Minister Opens the door for new nuclear in Sweden

psa engineers from 8 countries

attended the Riskspectrum training

courses in stockholm in June and

December last year. RelcOn

engineers training services were also

required in other parts of the world

for fire and flooding analysis and

Riskspectrum RiskWatcher training.

anna Häggström and per Hellström

travelled to south africa in the be-

ginning of December 2006 to hold

the 5 days training course for the

pebble Bed modular Reactor project

in centurion.

anders enerholm held a two days

Riskspectrum fire and flooding

training session for the shanghai

nuclear engineering Research and

Design institute in the p. R. of china.

in november, Johan sörman together

with ivan Vrbanic and ivica Bašic,

apos, croatia, held a 3-days

Riskspectrum RiskWatcher training

course for the slovenia nuclear safety

administration in ljubljana, slovenia.


www.riskspectrum.com

a Happy crowd at the Riskspectrum training course in centurion, south africa: From left to right: adelein de clercq (pBmR), sandiswe sotashe (eskOm), shavani ghoorun (eskOm), linda Jacobs (eskOm), louise cawood (pBmR), sajedah mahommed (pBmR), terma kussman (nnR), louis eloff (pBmR), Farisha panday (pBmR), lesego aphane (pBmR), kristen ireland (eskOm).

QTOP (Qi = 1)

QTOPI Ii =

By: johan Sörman


eneRGY & POliTicS

ARGenTinA

Strong growth has given rise to a

new energy policy for the country.

with oil production stagnating, Ar-

gentina is dusting off its old nuclear

power programme. economists

warn that with continued GnP

growth of about 9 percent, there

will be an energy shortage as soon

as next year. The government will

primarily carry out three measures:

Finish construction of the country’s

third reactor, Atucha ii, construct a

fourth reactor of 1000 megawatts

and prolong the life the embalse

reactor by 25 years.

At present, Argentina has two

reactors operating; Atucha i in

Zárate and embalse in córdoba.

Together, they generate 935

megawatts. This covers 7 percent

of the country’s power require-

ments, according to the Swedish

newspaper, dagens industri.

RuSSiA

According to the net newspaper,

“The voice of Russia”, in 2007 the

world’s largest floating nuclear

power station will be constructed

in Russia. The power station will be

built at the Severodvinsk shipyard

on the white Sea, which has up

to now manufactured nuclear

submarines, and will be operational

in 2010. construction costs are

estimated at 300 million dollars. At

present, floating power stations are

in demand in 11 Russian regions,

from Murmansk in the northernmost

part of the Kola Peninsular across

to the Far east. construction of

floating power stations is included

in a federal programme directed at

increasing the proportion of nuclear

power in the country’s energy

provision to 25 percent.

in total, Russia plans to build

between 42 and 58 reactors by 2030.

G8 SuPPORTS nucleAR POweR

Fossil fuels such as oil, natural gas

and coal “will continue to be the

basis of the world’s energy produc-

tion” during the next few decades,

according to the ministers, but they

emphasise that a broad investment

must be made so that energy needs

are satisfied, even if some supply

sectors vanish, according Swedish

news agency TT.

“For those countries that so wish,

large-scale development of secure,

safe nuclear energy is decisive for

long-term environmentally sustaina-

ble diversification of energy supp-

lies, according to a communiqué”

after the G8’s energy meeting of mi-

nisters in Moscow earlier this year.

indiA

France is to help india develop

nuclear power as an energy source

in exchange for india purchasing 43

French Airbus aircraft. And the uSA

has signed an agreement with india

on cooperation regarding Ameri-

can nuclear power technology (this

is restricted to civil nuclear power).

in a comment about the agreement

with the uSA, iAeA director General,

Mohamed el Baradei, says, “ This

agreement is an important step

towards satisfying india’s growing

need for energy, including nuclear

technology and fuel, as an engine

for development. it would also bring

india closer as an important partner

in the non-proliferation regime.” At

present, india has 16 nuclear power

stations in operation, and six under

construction.

BlAiR inveSTS in new

nucleAR POweR PlAnTS

The Blair government wants to

construct new reactors in order to

solve energy shortages and climate

goals. industry is stepping up the

pressure, as the price of industrial

gas has doubled recently. Some

energy-intensive companies were

even forced to close temporarily

during the winter in early 2006.

new reactors would be a way of

achieving the ambition of reducing

greenhouse gases from fossil fuels,

and compensating for the shortage

of domestically generated energy

due to declining oil and gas supp-

lies from the north Sea. The country

gets 40 percent of its electricity

from north Sea gas, and this propor-

tion is expected to increase at the

same time as nuclear reactors and

coal-fired power plants are closed

down on account of age and for

environmental reasons.

Blair thinks that there is now a

“frantic debate” ongoing throug-

hout the world regarding energy

and climate questions, and there-

fore wants a debate on the issue.

Prime Minister Tony Blair plans to

establish a new British energy

policy in the middle of this year.

AT PReSenT, GReAT BRiTAin HAS

23 ReAcTORS in OPeRATiOn And

nO new cOnSTRucTiOn HAS

cOMMenced Since 1988.

All reactors, with one exception, are

to be shut down within 18 years.

cOunTRieS dePendenT

uPOn nucleAR POweR

According to iAeA, nuclear power

produces 16 percent of the total

consumption of electricity in the

world today.

The highest proportion is in France,

which has 78 percent.

As regards the eu countries, the

figure is about 31 percent.

For the uSA, dependency is about

20 percent.

in 2006 the following new nuclear power

stations were put into operation

according to iAeA.

• Tianwan 1 1000 Mw(e),

PwR-wweR, china ready on 12 May.

• Shika 2 1304 Mw(e), BwR,

japan operational on 15 March.

• Tarapur 3 490 Mw(e), PHwR,

india on 21 May.

new eMPlOYeeSFrom 2 January

2007, lisa

Bengtsson is

working at the

Relcon scand-

power office in

sundbyberg.

she will mainly work on probabilistic

safety assessment, with a special

focus on nuclear safety.

lisa has a master’s degree in energy

systems engineering from uppsala

university, where along with other

topics she studied nuclear power

techniques and Risk analysis. lisa

did her final thesis in santiago, chile,

where she compared environmental

consequences from the current muni-

cipal solid waste treatment with those

from a system which included incine-

ration of waste with energy recovery.

lisa previously worked for the swedish

energy agency in the Department

for system analysis with the electricity

certificate system; which is a sup-

port system for electricity production

from renewable energy sources. Her

duties included being in charge of a

publication for market statistics and

information regarding electricity

certificates.

Relcon

scandpower´s

psa team recei-

ved a welcome

addition when

Vidar Hedtjärn

swaling joined

our sundbyberg

office on the 1st september 2006.

Vidar has a master of science degree

from uppsala university, where he

specialised in systems in techno-

logy and society. Besides traditional

studies in systems analysis and

automatic control, his training was

permeated by a holistic perspective

and cross-disciplinary approach.

Vidar is convinced that for successful

identification and control of risks in

technical systems, you need to take

a step back and recognise how

technology and society are

intimately interconnected.

in his diploma thesis, Vidar dealt with

statistical methods for handling failu-

re data in the nuclear power industry.

at our sundbyberg office, he will be

engaged in the current psa activities

as well as in method development

related to his earlier achievements.

prior to his studies at uppsala univer-

sity, Vidar pursued comprehensive

studies in psychology and theoretical

philosophy at the university of stockholm.

lisa Bengtsson

vidar Hedtjärn Swaling


However, india with 16% of the world’s population currently generates only around 2% of the global electricity, so to achieve a modestly high level of economic growth and her other development goals; India’s domestic generation capacity will need to increase at least ten fold, to about 900 GWe.

electricity Generation – national ScenarioCurrently India’s electricity is generated using mostly coal (see figure 1), of which it has about 5% of the world’s reserves. Even with full utilization, the conventional resources in India are far from being adequate to achieve any ambitious target in terms of power generation. For a large and deve-loping country like India, bulk imports of fuel or energy are neither affordable nor strategically prudent.

With the depleting coal and oil resour-ces and the limited hydro power, and with growing global concerns of green house gases generated by fossil fuel fired stations, India has no option but to use nuclear and other non- conventional re-sources for meeting its future power requirements.

While other, non-conventional, resources are suitable for small-decentralised applications, expert studies indicated that any substantial and sustainable rise in the standard of living in the region will only be possible on the basis of nuclear power. In terms of Long Range Marginal Cost (LRMC) advantages, nuclear power is a genuine economic option for power supply at locations far removed from coal reserves, particularly if hydro sources are not available in those regions.

nuclear Power Programme in indiaWhile economics is an important consideration for harnessing any energy source, the remark made by Dr. Homi J Bhabha (Father of Indian Nuclear Power Program) four decades ago is worth recalling. He said ‘No Power is costlier than no power’ meaning lack of power sources could impose a more severe economic penalty than the initial cost of development.

The relevance of nuclear power in meeting the short and

long-term energy needs of India was recognized right at the beginning of atomic energy program by Dr. Bhabha and his colleagues. Taking cognizance of India’s nuclear resources profile, Dr. Bhabha formulated a three-stage nuclear power program. This strategy unique to India was planned for judicious utilization of our limited uranium ore (78,000 tonnes - about 0.8% of world’s reserves) and our vast thorium resources (over 360,000 tonnes – about 32% of the worlds reserves). The emphasis of the program has been on self- reliance and thorium utilization as a long-term objective; the program essentially links the fuel cycles of each stage in a manner that multiplies the potential of nuclear fuel several-hundred fold.

The first stage of the program involving use of indigenous uranium in PHWRs efficiently produces not only energy but also fissile plutonium (U-238 in natural uranium undergoes nuclear transmutation to produce Pu-239).

The second stage of the program envisages use of Pu-239 obtained from the first stage reactor operation (by spent fuel reprocessing extraction) as the fuel in Fast Breeder Reactors (FBRs) with U-238 and Th-232 as blankets. Fresh Pu-239 and U-233, which are fissile, are produced in this process.

In the third stage, U-233 with Th-232 as a blanket in the Breeder Reactors, would behave as the mainstay of the final thorium utilization of the Indian Nuclear Program.

The first stage of Indian Nuclear Power Program is functional and India has now progressively moved on to the second stage with the start of construction of the FBR.

India’s staged nuclear power program is an important element in allowing nuclear power to meet the role envisaged

FeATuRe

Electricity Generation - National Scenario

Hydro26%

Thermal66%

Nuclear3%

Renewable5%

Figure 1. the major contribution to india’s power production pro-gram comes from coal based thermal power stations and Hydro electric power generation..

indian Power Sector – nuclear Power for Sustainable developmentenergy, particularly electricity, plays an important role in accelerating the economic growth of a country. india, the largest democracy in the world with an estimated population of about 1.095 billion, is on a road to rapid growth. mrs Devi kompella, with long experience of working in the nuclear industry in india, has kindly agreed to explain the current status and the plans for nuclear power in india.

Electrical Generation - Forecast Fuel Mix

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2002 2022 2032 2042 2052

Year

TW

h

Nuclear

Renewable

Hydro

Hydrocarbon

Coal

Figure 2. Forecasted growth in electrical generation in india 2002 - 2052.

electricity Generation – Forecast Fuel Mix

electricity Generation – national Scenario


Mrs devi Kompella is a Risk

assessment specialist working for

her own consultancy company,

‘ReltecH consulting private

limited’. Besides catering to the

needs of clients in india, ReltecH

consulting is currently providing

consultancy services in the areas

of Regulatory Review of psa,

psa applications, Risk informed

Decision making and psa soft-

ware Feature enhancement to

international organisations such

as the swiss Regulatory authority

(Hsk), swiss utilities and RelcOn,

sweden.

prior to setting up ReltecH

consulting in september 2005,

mrs. kompella worked for the

nuclear power corporation of

india limited (npcil) owners of

india’s npps. Whilst at npcil she

spent 2 years in npp operations,

and 14 years hands-on working

experience in psa. an advanced

user of Riskspectrum, Devi was

the recipient of the Outstanding

contribution award from npcil

for her contribution to indian

pHWR psa.

education: Bachelor’s Degree

in electrical and instrumentation

engineering from Osmania

university, Hyderabad, india

and advanced Diploma in

german language from

central institute of english

and Foreign languages,

Hyderabad, india.

looking forward to:

undertaking national and

international consultancy

assignments/projects of diverse

nature in the area of Risk

assessment and availability

analysis for nuclear and other

industries in the energy sector.

email: [email protected]

website:

www.reltechconsulting.co.in

indian Power Sector – nuclear Power for Sustainable developmentin the growth in electrical generation fore-casted by expert groups at the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) (see Figure 2). The DAE forecast calls for an increase of electricity generation from nuclear power plants from 3% - 20% of the total electrical generation in the country.

The study takes cognizance of the plans of various agencies of the Government of India and brings out several important conclusions with regard to fuel resource position and the role that nuclear energy has to play in India during the next five decades.

Status of nuclear Power Plants in indiaThe Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL) has accumulated about

250 reactor-years of operational experience free of any serious incident involving release of radioactivity to the environment. Indian nuclear power plants have progressively attained excellent operation performance indicating that nuclear power technology in India has reached a state of maturity. This maturity has not led to complacence and the DAE continues to take steps to further its development which are aimed at further improving the safety and availability of ope-rating stations, reducing the gestation period of plants under construction by using inno-vative management techniques, optimising cost and developing new reactor systems.

Safety of nPPs and Probabilistic Safety AssessmentSafety is given paramount importance in the design, construction and operation of

Indian Nuclear Power Stations. To ensure safety a defence-in-depth philosophy is followed, which leads to multiple barriers, diversity, redundancy, independence and fail safe design of the safety related systems. In addition safety is further enhanced by the application of sound design principles, use of international standards and codes, stringent quality assurance, approved operating procedures, in-service inspection and maintenance of safety systems, etc.

To complement the deterministic safety analyses, a Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is carried out whose aim is to compute the quantitative risk estimate for each NPP and to arrive at efficient safety management solutions.

NPCIL has produced Level-1 Probabi-listic Safety Assessments (with internal events at power) for all of India’s operating reac-tors. A compre-hensive reference Level-2 PSA was also performed by NPCIL in the recent past. The Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC)

currently is working on research reactor and Advanced Heavy Water Reactor PSAs. All PSAs are submitted to the regulatory authority (AERB) for review. The PSA teams of NPCIL, BARC and AERB work in co-ordination to achieve a high quality standard in both the performance and review of the Indian NPP PSAs. c

By: janaki devi Kompella

Note: The above article is compiled using published matter and articles from the following websites:

www.powermin.nic.in

www.dae.gov.in

www.npcil.nic.in

www.aerb.gov.in

www.barc.ernet.in

You can read a more detailed version of this article on: www.riskspectrum.com

Details of Reactor units total capacity (mWe)

Reactors in Operation: 2 BWRs (2x160) mWe,

14 pHWRs (1x100, 1x200, 10x220 & 2x540) mWe

3900

Reactors under construction: 4 pHWRs (4x220) mwe

1 FBR (1x 500) mwe 2VVeRs (2x1000) mWe

3380

new Starts Planned: lWRs (4x1000) mWe pHWRs (4x700) mWe

6800

Total 14080

Projected nuclear Power capacity up to 11th Plan (March-2012)

You are welcome to send us material to publish in RiskSpectrum Magazine. Please send it to [email protected]




MAY 2006

newS newS newS newS newSwww.scandpower.com www.relconscandpower.com www.riskspectrum.com

nORwAY

Headquarter:OSlOScandpower ASGåsevikveien 2P.O. Box 3, nO-2027 Kjeller, [email protected]: +47 64 84 44 00. Fax: +47 64 84 44 11

BeRGenScandpower ASnygårdsgt. 114 nO-5008 Bergen, [email protected]: +47 55 30 05 55. Fax: +47 55 30 05 56

STAvAnGeRScandpower ASHesbygaten 5P.O. Box 1540 Kjelvene nO-4093 Stavanger, [email protected]: +47 51 91 71 70. Fax: +47 51 91 71 71

TROndHeiMScandpower ASHavnegata 9P.O. Box 1252 Pirsenteret nO-7462 Trondheim, [email protected]: +47 73 54 63 60. Fax: +47 73 54 63 61

Sweden

STOcKHOlMRelcon Scandpower ABenglundavägen 9P.O. Box 1288 Se-172 25 Sundbyberg, [email protected]: +46 844 52 100. Fax: +46 844 52 101

GOTHenBuRGRelcon Scandpower ABMölndalsvägen 35 Se-412 63 Gothenburg, [email protected]: +46 31 335 03 30. Fax: +46 31 40 21 88

MAlMöRelcon Scandpower ABöstra Förstadsgatan 34 Se-212 12 Malmö, [email protected]: +46 40 93 76 45. Fax: +46 40 93 75 10

uPPSAlARelcon Scandpower ABBäverns gränd 21P.O. Box 1825 Se-751 48 uppsala, [email protected]: +46 18 69 54 18. Fax: +46 18 69 54 16

uSA

HOuSTOnScandpower Risk Management inc.1 Houston center1221 McKinney, Suite 3450Houston, Texas 77077, [email protected]: +1 713 654 1900. Fax: +1 713 654 1903

P.R cHinA

BeijinGScandpower Risk Management china inc.Towercrest international PlazaRoom no. 707 no 3 Maizidian west Road, chaoyang districtBeijing 100016, P.R [email protected] +86 10 6467 2860. Fax: +86 10 6467 2861

uAe

duBAiScandpower Risk Managementdubai internet cityBldg. no. 5, Office 105 & 106P.O. Box 500 233, dubai, [email protected]: +97 14 391 4130

RelcOn and Scandpower join forces Read all about it on pages 4-6

Documents

Lilla texten med outlines newS newS newS newS newSs3.amazonaws.com/zanran_storage/ · Lilla texten med outlines ... marriage. Two individuals - in this case our companies - agreed