Likely Iowa Caucus Voters’ Attitudes Toward Social Security

Copyright © 2016 AARP

AARP Research 601 E Street NW

Washington, DC 20049

Reprinting with Permission

ii

AARP is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization, with a membership of nearly 38 million, that helps people turn their goals and dreams into real possibilities, strengthens communities and fights for the issues that matter most to families such as healthcare, employment and income security, retirement planning, affordable utilities and protection from financial abuse. We advocate for individuals in the marketplace by selecting products and services of high quality and value to carry the AARP name as well as help our members obtain discounts on a wide range of products, travel, and services. A trusted source for lifestyle tips, news and educational information, AARP produces AARP The Magazine, the world's largest circulation magazine; AARP Bulletin; www.aarp.org; AARP TV & Radio; AARP Books; and AARP en Español, a Spanish-language website addressing the interests and needs of Hispanics. AARP does not endorse candidates for public office or make contributions to political campaigns or candidates. The AARP Foundation is an affiliated charity that provides security, protection, and empowerment to older persons in need with support from thousands of volunteers, donors, and sponsors. AARP has staffed offices in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Learn more at www.aarp.org. AARP collected the data for this project through a telephone survey administered by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. This report was written by Kathi Brown, Senior Research Advisor, AARP Research. All media inquiries about this report should be directed to (202) 434-2560. For all other questions, contact the author at skbrown@aarp.org.

1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This survey of likely Iowa caucus voters age 18+ examines voters’ views on the 2016 presidential election, including the importance of candidates laying out their plans for the future of Social Security and how important it is for the next president and congress to take action to make Social Security financially sound. It also asks respondents which candidate they expect to vote for and how certain they are of their choice. Key Findings

• More than nine in ten Iowa caucus voters across party lines and age groups think it is important for presidential candidates to lay out a plan to make Social Security financially sound for future generations. This includes 95% of Democratic caucus voters and 92% of Republican caucus voters. In fact, regardless of age, more than half of likely caucus voters in each party think this is “very important.”

• More than eight in ten Iowa caucus voters, across party lines and across age groups,

agree that having a plan for Social Security is a basic threshold for presidential leadership. This includes 88% of likely Democratic caucus voters and 86% of likely Republican caucus voters.

• More than nine in ten voters across both parties and age groups believe it is important that the next president and congress take action to make Social Security financially sound. This includes 94% of Democratic caucus voters as well as 94% of Republican caucus voters.

• Among likely Democratic caucus voters, Hillary Clinton is the leading choice for president (preferred by 49%), with Bernie Sanders coming in second (preferred by 42%). Of likely Democrat caucus voters, 63% say they will definitely vote for their preferred candidate and another 19% will probably vote for their preferred candidate; however, nearly one in five (19%) are less certain about who will get their vote.

• Among likely Republican caucus voters, Ted Cruz is the leading choice for president (preferred by 31%) with Donald Trump coming in second (24%) and Marco Rubio third (12%). Of likely Republican caucus voters, only 43% say that they will definitely vote for their preferred candidate and another 35% will probably vote for their preferred candidate; however, more than one in five (22%) are less certain about who will get their vote.

• When asked for their thoughts about the candidates’ plans for the future of Social Security, many Democratic and Republican caucus voters said they want to hear more information from candidates in their party. For example, among Democratic caucus voters, 51% would like to know more about Hillary Clinton’s plans, and 38% would like to know more about Bernie Sanders’ plans. Among Republican caucus voters, 45% would like to know more about Donald Trump’s plans, and 41% would like to know more about Ted Cruz’s plans as well as Marco Rubio’s plans.

2

METHODOLOGY This survey of 1,007 likely Iowa caucus voters was conducted by telephone from January 4, 2016 through January 8, 2016. By design, half of the respondents consist of likely Democratic caucus attendees (503) and half consist of likely Republican caucus attendees (504). The margin of error for the full sample of 1,007 is +/- 3.1%, while the margin of error for each subgroup by party (Republican caucus voters or Democratic caucus voters) is +/- 4.5%. More detail on the methodology may be found in Appendix A.

3

DETAILED FINDINGS Importance of Having a Plan for Social Security The vast majority of likely caucus voters believe that it is ”very” or “somewhat” important for presidential candidates to lay out their plans to make Social Security financially sound for future generations, including 95% of likely Democratic caucus voters and 92% of likely Republican caucus voters.

Regardless of party, a large majority of both younger and older caucus voters state that this is important. Among Democratic caucus voters, 90% of those under age 50 and 99% of those ages 50+ say this is important. Among Republican caucus voters, 90% of those under age 50 and 94% of those ages 50+ say this is important.

*Full question: “According to the Social Security trustees, Social Security benefits are projected to be cut by nearly 25% beginning in 2034 if no action is taken. Knowing this, how important would you say it is that presidential candidates lay out their plans to make Social Security financially sound for future generations?” (Question 12 and 22 in Appendix B.) Percentages in chart may not add up to percentages in text due to rounding.

67%

76%

58%

27%

19%

35%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Total (n=1,007)

Likely Democratic Caucus Voters(n=503)

Likely Republican Caucus Voters(n=504)

How important would you say it is that presidential candidates lay out their plans to make Social Security financially sound for future generations?*

VeryImportant

SomewhatImportant

4

Social Security as a Threshold for Leadership The majority of likely caucus voters across parties strongly or somewhat agree that “having a plan for Social Security is a basic threshold for presidential leadership,” including 88% of likely Democratic caucus voters and 86% of likely Republican caucus voters. Regardless of party, both younger and older caucus voters express agreement with this sentiment. Among Democratic caucus voters, 82% of those under age 50 and 93% of those ages 50+ agree. For Republican caucus voters, 87% of those under age 50 and 86% of those ages 50+ agree.

* Response options were: “strongly agree,” “somewhat agree,” “somewhat disagree,” or “strongly disagree.” (Question 11 and 21 in Appendix B.)

55%

60%

49%

33%

28%

37%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Total (n=1,007)

Likely Democratic Caucus Voters(n=503)

Likely Republican Caucus Voters(n=504)

Agreement with "Having a plan for Social Security is a basic threshold for presidential leadership."*

Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree

5

Importance of Taking Action to Make Social Security Financially Sound When asked how important it is that the next President and Congress take action to make Social Security financially sound, 94% of likely Democratic caucus voters as well as 94% of likely Republican caucus voters state that this is very or somewhat important. This issue resonates strongly across party lines, with more than six in 10 of each party’s likely caucus participants stating that this is “very important” (77% of likely Democratic caucus voters and 62% of likely Republican caucus voters). Younger and older caucus voters, regardless of party, agree that this is important. Among Democratic caucus voters, 91% of those under age 50 view this as important as do 96% of those ages 50+. Among Republican caucus voters, 93% of those under age 50 state this is important--nearly as many as the 94% of those ages 50+ who feel this way.

*Response options were “very important,” “somewhat important,” “not too important,” and “not at all important.” (Questions 13 and 23 in Appendix B.) Preferred Candidates Among likely Republican caucus voters, Ted Cruz is the leading choice for president (preferred by 31%) with Donald Trump coming in second (24%) and Marco Rubio third (12%). Among likely Democratic caucus voters, Hillary Clinton is the top choice (preferred by 49%) with Bernie Sanders coming in second (42%). For the complete distribution of results, see charts below.

70%

77%

62%

24%

17%

32%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Total (n=1,007)

Likely Democratic Caucus Voters(n=503)

Likely Republican Caucus Voters(n=504)

How important is it that the next President and Congress take action to make Social Security financially sound?*

VeryImportant

SomewhatImportant

6

*Chart reflects responses to question displayed in the title of the chart as well as “Are you currently leaning toward any candidate? Which candidate is that?,” which was asked of respondents who did not respond to the first question. (Questions 18 and 20 in Appendix B.)

*Chart reflects responses to question displayed in the title of the chart as well as “Are you currently leaning toward any candidate? Which candidate is that?,” which was asked of respondents who did not respond to the first question. (Questions 8 and 10 in Appendix B.)

6%

0%

1%

2%

3%

3%

4%

4%

5%

6%

12%

24%

31%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Undecided (not leaning toward a candidate)

Jim Gilmore

Rick Santorum

Mike Huckabee

John Kasich

Carly Fiorina

Chris Christie

Rand Paul

Jeb Bush

Ben Carson

Marco Rubio

Donald Trump

Ted Cruz

If the 2016 Iowa Republican caucus were held today, which one of the following candidates would get your vote?*

(n=504 likely Republican caucus voters)

5%

5%

42%

49%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Undecided (not leaning toward a candidate)

Martin O'Malley

Bernie Sanders

Hillary Clinton

If the 2016 Iowa Democratic caucus were held today, which one of the following candidates would get your vote?* (n=503 likely

Democratic caucus voters)

7

Uncertainty Among Some Despite the preferences illustrated in the charts above, a noteworthy share of likely caucus voters have not yet finalized their decisions. For example, only 63% of likely Democratic caucus voters and 43% of likely Republican caucus voters say that they have “definitely” decided who will get their vote. Another 19% of Democratic caucus voters and 35% of Republican caucus voters say that they have “probably” decided. This leaves 22% of Republican caucus voters and 19% of Democratic caucus voters who express uncertainty about their vote, including those who have a preferred candidate but say they may change their mind, those who are leaning toward a candidate but not yet sure who they will vote for, and those who are not yet leaning toward a particular candidate.

*For Democratic caucus voters, chart reflects responses to Questions 9 and 10. For Republican caucus voters, chart reflects responses to Questions 19 and 20. (See Appendix B for the complete wording of each question.)

63%

43%

19%

35%

10%

12%

4%

4%

5%

6%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Likely Democratic CaucusVoters (n=503)

Likely Republican CaucusVoters (n=504)

Strength of Preferences*

Will Definitely Vote for Preferred Candidate Will Probably Vote for Preferred Candidate

Might Still Change Mind Not Decided but Leaning

Not Decided and Not Leaning

8

Reactions to Candidates’ Plans for Social Security When likely caucus voters were asked whether they had heard enough from each candidate about their plans for keeping Social Security strong for future generations or whether they would like more information, a noteworthy share of voters indicated that they would like more information from the candidates. Likely Republican caucus voters are most likely to want to know more about the following candidates’ plans for Social Security: Donald Trump (45%), Ted Cruz (41%), and Marco Rubio (41%). Among Democratic caucus voters, 51% would like to know more about Hillary Clinton’s plans, and 38% would like to know more about Bernie Sanders’ plans. Interest in knowing more about the candidates’ plans for Social Security is relatively consistent across age groups, with similar shares of younger and older voters expressing interest. For example, 45% of Republican caucus voters under age 50 as well as 45% of those ages 50+ say that they would like to hear more about Donald Trump’s plans for Social Security. When asked about Ted Cruz’s plans for Social Security, 38% of likely Republican caucus voters under age 50 say they would like to know more as do 43% of those ages 50+. With regard to Marco Rubio’s plans, 43% of Republican caucus voters under age 50 would like to know more as would 40% of those ages 50+. Among Democratic caucus voters, 49% of those under age 50 would like to know more about Hillary Clinton’s plans for Social Security, as would 52% of those ages 50+. With regard to Bernie Sanders’ plans, 36% of Democratic caucus voters under age 50 and 39% of those ages 50+ say they would like to know more.

9

*Voters planning to attend the Democratic caucuses were asked about only Democratic candidates, while voters planning to attend the Republican caucuses were asked about only Republican candidates. Therefore, for each bar representing a Republican candidate, n=504. For each bar representing a Democratic candidate, n=503. Responses may not add up to 100% due to rounding. (See Questions 14-16 and Questions 24-35 in Appendix B.)

38%

47%

51%

32%

33%

32%

33%

35%

35%

38%

39%

39%

41%

41%

45%

62%

53%

50%

68%

67%

68%

67%

65%

65%

62%

62%

61%

59%

59%

55%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Bernie Sanders

Martin O'Malley

Hillary Clinton

Jim Gilmore

John Kasich

Rick Santorum

Jeb Bush

Mike Huckabee

Rand Paul

Carly Fiorina

Chris Christie

Ben Carson

Marco Rubio

Ted Cruz

Donald Trump

I am going to read the names of each candidate again, and would like you to tell me if you have heard enough about their plans for

keeping Social Security financially sound for future generations, or if you would like to know more about their plans.*

Would like to know more Heard enough

Republican contenders

Democratic contenders

10

Appendix A: Detailed Description of Methodology This survey was conducted by telephone from January 4, 2016 through January 8, 2016 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research of Jacksonville, Florida. A total of 1,007 likely Iowa Caucus participants were interviewed statewide. By design, half of the respondents consist of likely Democratic caucus attendees (503) and half consist of likely Republican caucus attendees (504). Respondents were screened to include only those who identified themselves as registered voters in the state of Iowa and planned to attend a caucus. Results were not weighted. However, the demographic profile (age, gender, and party registration) of both the Democratic and Republican samples aligns closely with that of participants in previous contested Iowa party caucuses.1 The sample’s equal shares of likely Republican caucus attendees and likely Democratic caucus attendees aligns with the nearly equal number of registered Democrats and registered Republicans in Iowa as of January 2016.2 The sampling was dual-frame, with 50% of the completed interviews conducted through random-digit-dialing of landline numbers and the remaining 50% of completed interviews conducted by randomly calling cell phone numbers that had been matched to lists of registered voters in the state of Iowa. Each number, excluding disconnected numbers, was tried up to five times. The overall response rate was 7%, meaning that 7% of the individuals who were reached on the phone ultimately completed the survey. The response rate was driven in part by the screening questions, which required respondents to be registered to vote in the state of Iowa and plan to attend a caucus on February 1. Of those individuals who were reached on the phone, 31% agreed to take the survey. Of the 31% who agreed to take the survey, 22% passed the screener questions. The margin of error for the full sample of 1,007 voters is ± 3.1%, while the margin of error for each party sample, both Republican and Democratic, is ± 4.5%.

1 Polls by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for several state and national news organizations conducted between 1988 and 2012. 2 According to the Iowa Secretary of State’s Office, as of January 2016, registered Republicans in Iowa numbered 612,112 and registered Democrats numbered 584,111. Therefore, of total voters registered in Iowa as either a Republican or Democrat, 51% were Republicans and 49% were Democrats. https://sos.iowa.gov. (It is not yet known whether each party will experience similar levels of participation in the 2016 caucuses.)

11

Appendix B: Annotated Questionnaire This annotated questionnaire shows the distribution of responses to each question.

1) NOTE GENDER: DEM CAUCUS GOP CAUCUS ALL VOTERS

Male 42.5% (214) 56.2% (283) 49.4% (497) Female 57.5% (289) 43.8% (221) 50.6% (510)

2) What is age? DEM CAUCUS GOP CAUCUS ALL VOTERS 18-34 20.9% (105) 17.1% (86) 19.0% (191) 35-49 23.1% (116) 22.0% (111) 22.5% (227) 50-64 30.6% (154) 33.9% (171) 32.3% (325) 65+ 25.4% (128) 27.0% (136) 26.2% (264) 3) Are you a registered voter in the state of Iowa? DEM CAUCUS GOP CAUCUS ALL VOTERS Yes 100.0% (503) 100.0% (504) 100.0% (1,007) 4) What is your current official party voter registration? (NOT READ) DEM CAUCUS GOP CAUCUS ALL VOTERS Democrat 79.9% (402) 1.0% (5) 40.4% (407) Republican 1.0% (5) 80.2% (404) 40.6% (409) No Party/Independent 19.1% (96) 18.8% (95) 19.0% (191) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*** 191 REGISTERED INDEPENDENTS *** 5) Are you planning to change your party registration in order to participate in the February 1st Iowa Caucuses? Yes 191 (100.0%) 6) With which party will you be registering? (NOT READ) Democrat 50.3% (96) Republican 49.7% (95)

12

503 LIKELY DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS VOTERS 7) On February 1, there will be precinct caucuses in Iowa to help select the Democratic Party presidential nominee. Which of the following best describes your plans for attending your precinct caucus? Definitely will attend 66.8% (336) Probably will attend 33.2% (167) 8) If the 2016 Iowa Democratic caucus were held today, which one of the following candidates would get your vote: (ORDER ROTATED) Hillary Clinton 47.1% (237) Bernie Sanders 40.2% (202) Martin O’Malley 4.2% (21) Undecided (NOT READ) 8.5% (43) Likely Democratic caucus voters who expressed a preference in Q8: 9) Which of the following describes your support for that candidate? (n=460) - I will definitely vote for him/her 68.7% (316) - I will probably vote for him/her 20.2% (93) - I still might change my mind 11.1% (51) Likely Democratic caucus voters who did NOT express a preference in Q8: 10) Are you currently leaning toward any candidate? (IF YES) Which candidate is that? (n=43) Question 8 and 10 Combined Results: Preferences Among ALL Likely Democratic Caucus Voters, Including “Leaners” (n=503): Hillary Clinton 48.5% (244) Bernie Sanders 42.3% (213)

Martin O’Malley 4.6% (23) Undecided 4.6% (23) Question 9 and 10 Combined Results: Strength of Preferences Among ALL Likely Democratic Caucus Voters, Including “Leaners” (n=503):

Will definitely vote for preferred candidate 62.8% (316) Will probably vote for preferred candidate 18.5% (93) Might still change mind 10.1% (51) Not decided but leaning toward a candidate 4.0% (20) Not decided and not leaning toward a candidate 4.6% (23)

13

11) Please tell me if you agree or disagree with the following statement: “Having a plan for Social Security is a basic threshold for presidential leadership”. (Is that strongly agree/disagree or somewhat agree/disagree?) Strongly Agree 60.0% (302) Somewhat Agree 28.4% (143) Somewhat Disagree 3.8% (19) Strongly Disagree 4.4% (22) Not Sure (NOT READ) 3.4% (17) 12) According to the Social Security Trustees, Social Security benefits are projected to be cut by nearly 25% beginning in 2034 if no action is taken. Knowing this, how important would you say it is that presidential candidates lay out their plans to make Social Security financially sound for future generations? Is it: Very Important 76.1% (383) Somewhat Important 18.5% (93) Not Too Important 2.6% (13) Not At All Important 2.4% (12) Not Sure (NOT READ) 0.4% (2) 13) How important is it that the next president and congress take action to make Social Security financially sound? Is it: Very Important 76.9% (387) Somewhat Important 16.9% (85) Not Too Important 2.0% (10) Not At All Important 2.4% (12) Not Sure (NOT READ) 1.8% (9)

14

I am going to read the names of each candidate again, and would like you to tell me if: (ORDER ROTATED)

- You have heard enough about their plans for keeping Social Security financially sound for future generations, or

- You would like to know more about their plans for keeping Social Security financially sound

for future generations. (14-16 ORDER ROTATED) HEARD ENOUGH WOULD LIKE TO KNOW MORE 14) Hillary Clinton 49.5% (249) 50.5% (254) 15) Bernie Sanders 62.0% (312) 38.0% (191) 16) Martin O’Malley 53.1% (267) 46.9% (236)

15

504 LIKELY REPUBLICAN CAUCUS VOTERS 17) On February 1, there will be precinct caucuses in Iowa to help select the Republican Party presidential nominee. Which of the following best describes your plans for attending your precinct caucus? Definitely will attend 64.7% (326) Probably will attend 35.3% (178) 18) If the 2016 Iowa Republican caucus were held today, which one of the following candidates would get your vote: (ORDER ROTATED) Donald Trump 24.0% (121) Ted Cruz 29.4% (148) Marco Rubio 10.9% (55) Ben Carson 5.6% (28) Jeb Bush 4.6% (23) Chris Christie 3.4% (17) Carly Fiorina 2.8% (14) John Kasich 2.6% (13) Rand Paul 3.8% (19) Mike Huckabee 2.2% (11) Rick Santorum 0.8% (4) Jim Gilmore 0.2% (1) Undecided (NOT READ) 9.9% (50)

16

Likely Republican caucus voters who identified a preference in Q18: 19) Which of the following describes your support for that candidate? (n=454) - I will definitely vote for him/her 47.8% (217) - I will probably vote for him/her 38.8% (176) - I still might change my mind 13.4% (61) Likely Republican caucus voters who did NOT identify a preference in Q18: 20) Are you currently leaning toward any candidate? (IF YES) Which candidate is that? (n=50) Question 18 and 20 Combined Results: Preferences Among ALL Likely Republican Caucus Voters, Including “Leaners” (n=504): Donald Trump 24.4% (123) Ted Cruz 31.0% (156) Marco Rubio 12.3% (62) Ben Carson 5.8% (29) Jeb Bush 4.6% (23) Chris Christie 3.6% (18) Carly Fiorina 2.8% (14) John Kasich 2.8% (14) Rand Paul 3.8% (19) Mike Huckabee 2.2% (11) Rick Santorum 0.8% (4) Jim Gilmore 0.2% (1) Undecided (NOT READ) 6.0% (30) Question 19 and 20 Combined Results: Strength of Preferences Among ALL Likely Republican Caucus Voters, Including “Leaners” (n=504):

Will definitely vote for preferred candidate 43.1% (217) Will probably vote for preferred candidate 34.9% (176) Might still change mind 12.1% (61) Not decided but leaning toward a candidate 4.0% (20) Not decided and not leaning toward a candidate 6.0% (30)

17

21) Please tell me if you agree or disagree with the following statement: “Having a plan for Social Security is a basic threshold for presidential leadership”. (Is that strongly agree/disagree or somewhat agree/disagree?) Strongly Agree 49.4% (249) Somewhat Agree 36.7% (185) Somewhat Disagree 8.9% (45) Strongly Disagree 3.4% (17) Not Sure (NOT READ) 1.6% (8) 22) According to the Social Security Trustees, Social Security benefits are projected to be cut by nearly 25% beginning in 2034 if no action is taken. Knowing this, how important would you say it is that presidential candidates lay out their plans to make Social Security financially sound for future generations? Is it: Very Important 57.5% (290) Somewhat Important 34.5% (174) Not Too Important 4.6% (23) Not At All Important 2.2% (11) Not Sure (NOT READ) 1.2% (6) 23) How important is it that the next president and congress take action to make Social Security financially sound? Is it: Very Important 62.3% (314) Somewhat Important 31.5% (159) Not Too Important 4.2% (21) Not At All Important 1.6% (8) Not Sure (NOT READ) 0.4% (2)

18

I am going to read the names of each candidate again, and would like you to tell me if: (ORDER ROTATED)

- You have heard enough about their plans for keeping Social Security financially sound for future generations, or

- You would like to know more about their plans for keeping Social Security financially sound

for future generations. (ORDER ROTATED 24-35) HEARD ENOUGH WOULD LIKE TO KNOW MORE 24) Donald Trump 55.2% (278) 44.8% (226) 25) Ted Cruz 59.3% (299) 40.7% (205) 26) Marco Rubio 59.1% (298) 40.9% (206) 27) Ben Carson 61.1% (308) 38.9% (196) 28) Jeb Bush 67.1% (338) 32.9% (166) 29) Chris Christie 61.5% (310) 38.5% (194) 30) Carly Fiorina 62.1% (313) 37.9% (191) 31) John Kasich 66.7% (336) 33.3% (168) 32) Rand Paul 65.1% (328) 34.9% (176) 33) Mike Huckabee 65.3% (329) 34.7% (175) 34) Rick Santorum 67.7% (341) 32.3% (163) 35) Jim Gilmore 68.1% (343) 31.9% (161)

19

DEMOGRAPHICS 36) Which of the following best describes your race or ethnicity? DEM CAUCUS GOP CAUCUS ALL VOTERS

White/Caucasian 92.6% (466) 95.0% (479) 93.8% (945) Black/African-American 2.6% (13) 0.6% (3) 1.6% (16) Hispanic/Latino 1.6% (8) 0.8% (4) 1.2% (12) Asian 1.2% (6) 0.8% (4) 1.0% (10)

Other 0.4% (2) 0.2% (1) 0.3% (3) Refused (NOT READ) 1.6% (8) 2.6% (13) 2.1% (21) 37) In terms of you marital status, are you: DEM CAUCUS GOP CAUCUS ALL VOTERS

Married 53.9% (271) 64.1% (323) 59.0% (594) Living with a partner 3.2% (16) 2.0% (10) 2.6% (26) Widowed 9.5% (48) 9.3% (47) 9.4% (95) Divorced or Separated 14.7% (74) 9.3% (47) 12.0% (121) Never married 17.3% (87) 13.3% (67) 15.3% (154) Refused (NOT READ) 1.4% (7) 2.0% (10) 1.7% (17) 38) Which of the following best describes the highest level of education you have completed? DEM CAUCUS GOP CAUCUS ALL VOTERS High School or less 20.1% (101) 16.9% (85) 18.5% (186) Some College or technical training 32.4% (163) 30.4% (153) 31.4% (316) College graduate with a four year degree 21.1% (106) 31.2% (157) 26.1% (263) Graduate or professional degree 26.0% (131) 21.0% (106) 23.5% (237) Refused (NOT READ) 0.4% (2) 0.6% (3) 0.5% (5)

20

39) Which of the following best describes your employment status? DEM CAUCUS GOP CAUCUS ALL VOTERS Employed full-time 53.7% (270) 56.3% (284) 55.0% (554) Employed part-time 9.9% (50) 11.3% (57) 10.6% (107) Retired 29.8% (150) 28.6% (144) 29.2% (294) Currently not employed for pay, but looking for work 2.2% (11) 1.0% (5) 1.6% (16) Not employed & not looking for work 3.2% (16) 2.2% (11) 2.7% (27) Refused (NOT READ) 1.2% (6) 0.6% (3) 0.9% (9) If employed full-time or part-time: 40) Are you self-employed? (n=661) DEM CAUCUS GOP CAUCUS ALL VOTERS

Yes 20.6% (66) 28.2% (96) 24.5% (162) No 79.4% (254) 71.8% (245) 75.5% (499)

If did not indicate “retired” in Q39: 41) Are you retired from a previous career? (n=713) DEM CAUCUS GOP CAUCUS ALL VOTERS

Yes 9.1% (32) 14.2% (51) 11.6% (83) No 90.7% (320) 85.8% (309) 88.2% (629) Refused 0.3% (1) (0) 0.1% (1)

21

43) Is your annual household income before taxes: DEM CAUCUS GOP CAUCUS ALL VOTERS <$25,000 11.9% (60) 8.1% (41) 10.0% (101) $25,000-$49,999 18.3% (92) 17.1% (86) 17.7% (178) $50,000-$74,999 17.5% (88) 21.8% (110) 19.7% (198) $75,000-$99,999 13.1% (66) 12.7% (64) 12.9% (130) $100,000+ 19.3% (97) 21.0% (106) 20.2% (203) Refused (NOT READ) 19.9% (100) 19.2% (97) 19.6% (197) 44) NOTE CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT: DEM CAUCUS GOP CAUCUS ALL VOTERS 1ST Cong District 28.0% (141) 21.8% (110) 24.9% (251) 2ND Cong District 27.0% (136) 23.0% (116) 25.0% (252) 3RD Cong District 23.1% (116) 30.0% (151) 26.5% (267) 4TH Cong District 21.9% (110) 25.2% (127) 23.5% (237) NOTE CALL: DEM CAUCUS GOP CAUCUS ALL VOTERS

Landline 48.9% (246) 51.2% (258) 50.0% (504) Cell Phone 51.1% (257) 48.8% (246) 50.0% (503)

22

COLLAPSED RESULTS QUESTION: Please tell me if you agree or disagree with the following statement: “Having a plan for Social Security is a basic threshold for presidential leadership”. (Is that strongly agree/disagree or somewhat agree/disagree?) DEM CAUCUS GOP CAUCUS ALL VOTERS Strongly Agree 60.0% (302) 49.4% (249) 54.7% (551) Somewhat Agree 28.4% (143) 36.7% (185) 32.6% (328) Somewhat Disagree 3.8% (19) 8.9% (45) 6.4% (64) Strongly Disagree 4.4% (22) 3.4% (17) 3.9% (39) Not Sure (NOT READ) 3.4% (17) 1.6% (8) 2.5% (25) QUESTION: According to the Social Security Trustees, Social Security benefits are projected to be cut by nearly 25% beginning in 2034 if no action is taken. Knowing this, how important would you say it is that presidential candidates lay out their plans to make Social Security financially sound for future generations? Is it: DEM CAUCUS GOP CAUCUS ALL VOTERS Very Important 76.1% (383) 57.5% (290) 66.8% (673) Somewhat Important 18.5% (93) 34.5% (174) 26.5% (267) Not Too Important 2.6% (13) 4.6% (23) 3.6% (36) Not At All Important 2.4% (12) 2.2% (11) 2.3% (23) Not Sure (NOT READ) 0.4% (2) 1.2% (6) 0.8% (8) QUESTION: How important is it that the next president and congress take action to make Social Security financially sound? Is it: Very Important 76.9% (387) 62.3% (314) 69.6% (701) Somewhat Important 16.9% (85) 31.5% (159) 24.2% (244) Not Too Important 2.0% (10) 4.2% (21) 3.1% (31) Not At All Important 2.4% (12) 1.6% (8) 2.0% (20) Not Sure (NOT READ) 1.8% (9) 0.4% (2) 1.1% (11)