Swindon and WiltshireLEP REPORT

2

Emsi LEP R

eport | S

win

don

and

Wiltsh

ire LEP

Contents

3......Foreword

4......Overview of our region’s economy

5......High level overview of our region’s industries and occupations

6......What are our top industries?

7......What are our top occupations?

8......What are our highest paying industries and occupations?

9......What are our niche industries and occupations?

10....What are our most competitive industries and occupations?

11....Where are the jobs in our most niche industry?

About EmsiEconomic Modelling Specialists International (Emsi) creates tools and services that help organisations better understand the connection between economies, people and work. Through our unparalleled local and granular economic data, we are now working with more than 100 colleges, universities and LEPs across the country, giving them the understanding they need in order to close skills gaps, drive growth, and increase productivity in their local economy.

3

Emsi LEP R

eport | S

win

don

and

Wiltsh

ire LEP

Foreword

The central role of LEPs – determining local economic priorities, driving economic growth and helping to increase regional productivity – all require that you have a thorough understanding of your regional economy. One of the methods at your disposal to help you acquire this understanding is of course Labour Market Information (LMI).

There is a wealth of publicly available data sources available, but there are numerous problems associated with using them. To begin with, not one dataset out there gives a complete picture of the labour market. Secondly, all datasets contain strengths, weaknesses, and data suppressions. And thirdly, attempting to use the raw data is a hugely time-consuming and resource-consuming activity.

Most LMI solutions can help overcome the first and the third problem, by combining different datasets into one system. However, this still doesn’t overcome the second problem – that of weaknesses and data suppressions. Since these problems and gaps in the data tend to occur at the 3 and 4-digit industry and occupation levels, what most LMI solutions tend to do is to make assumptions about the granular levels based on the data and trends at the more generic levels. This approach is bound to lead to erroneous conclusions, since many of the industries and occupations at the 3 and 4-digit level are quite different from one another and are highly unlikely to have been growing or declining at the same rate (for example, within the 2-digit Leisure, Travel and Related Personal Service Occupations, there are such disparate occupations as Travel Agents, Caretakers, Hairdressers and Barbers, and Sports and Leisure Assistants). The same errors will occur if assumptions are made at the geographical level, as regions are made up of sub-regions which are often far from homogenous.

At Emsi we take a different approach. Rather than taking public datasets and making broad assumptions, we economically model them together using a technique developed over many years, which allows us to retain the strengths and discard the weaknesses of each source. What we end up with is a dataset that gives a detailed and accurate picture not only of regional labour markets, but also of the sub-geographies within, right down to the most specific industries and occupations.

The intent of this report is to give you a flavour of this data, tailored specifically to your region. Some of the highlights of the data in this report are:

• Granular data (4-digit) on occupations and industries throughout

• A look at the industries and occupations which make your region unique

• A look at the occupational make up of the most unique industry in your region

This kind of granular data can go a long way to helping you better understand what industries, occupations and skills are driving your region. In turn, this can help you in a number of ways, including better defining your region’s economic priorities, formulating a more effective growth strategy, and encouraging inward investment into your region.

Our goals are very similar to yours: you are looking to drive growth and increase productivity in your region; we produce granular data that is designed to give organisations such as yours the knowledge and understanding you need to be able to more effectively drive growth and increase productivity in your region. We hope that this report will be of use and of interest to you as you strive to meet your goals.

Overview of our region’s economy

Forecast job growth between 2015 and 2020:

4%

Projected number of jobs by 2020:

337,469

Forecast increase in jobs between 2015 and 2020:

13,427

Number of jobs in 2015:

324,042

Average wage in our region:

£23,478

4

Emsi LEP R

eport | S

win

don

and

Wiltsh

ire LEP

Associate Professional and Technical Occupations

46,49948,747

Top 5 high level industries

Industry 2015 Jobs 2020 Jobs

Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcyles

54,28356,547

Human Health and Social Work Activities

38,03540,725

Administrative and Support Service Activities

27,89429,215

Manufacturing28,002

26,923

Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities

28,71631,009

Top 5 high level occupations

Managers, Directors and Senior Officials

Elementary Occupations

Professional Occupations

Occupation 2015 Jobs 2020 Jobs

58,30260,874

Administrative and Secretarial Occupations

41,08442,637

39,74041,544

32,53434,023

High level overview of our region’sindustries and occupations

Industry Change in Jobs (2015-2020) % Change

Human Health and Social Work Activities 2,690 7%

Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities 2,293 8%

Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles 2,264 4%

Construction 2,242 15%

Financial and Insurance Activities 1,829 10%

Top 5 high level growth industries

Top 5 high level growth occupations

Occupation Change in Jobs (2015-2020) % Change

Professional Occupations 2,572 4%

Elementary Occupations 2,248 5%

Administrative and Secretarial Occupations 1,804 5%

Caring, Leisure and Other Service Occupations 1,745 6%

Associate Professional and Technical Occupations 1,553 4%5

Emsi LEP R

eport | S

win

don

and

Wiltsh

ire LEP

Industry Change in Jobs (2015-2020) % Change

Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding 2,405 18%

Business and other management consultancy activities 1,163 17%

Electrical installation 906 28%

Other food service activities 763 23%

Residential care activities for the elderly and disabled 688 16%

Temporary employment agency activities 610 8%

Retail sale via mail order houses or via Internet 542 24%

Warehousing and storage 530 15%

Restaurants and mobile food service activities 498 7%

Postal activities under universal service obligation 471 18%

Top 10 highest growth industries

What are our top industries?

A good place to start when trying to understand what is driving your regional economy is to look at which industries are driving employment both in terms of total numbers employed and in terms of future growth. However, simply looking at the headline industries will not tell you an awful lot. To come to a really good understanding of the drivers in your region, it is crucial to drill right down to the most specific industries (4-digit SIC). Our data tool, Analyst, allows users to do just this, and the information below shows both the biggest industries and the highest growth industries in your region, right down to the most granular levels.

Top 10 biggest industries

6

Industry 2015 Jobs 2020 Jobs

Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding

13,21315,618

Retail sale in non-specialised stores with food, beverages or tobacco predominating

12,49812,758

Primary education 12,49612,581

12,45912,894

Hospital activities

11,91311,205

General secondary education

Public administration and defence; compulsory social security

8,2988,331

Temporary employment agency activities

7,5688,178

Restaurants and mobile food service activities

7,1857,683

Business and other management consultancy activities

6,7617,924

Beverage serving activities 6,5956,585

Emsi LEP R

eport | S

win

don

and

Wiltsh

ire LEP

The industry data tells us a good deal, but we also need to look at the local economy through the lens of occupations to see which jobs are driving the regional economy. As with the industry data, our Analyst tool can drill right down to the most granular detail, and so below we have set out the Top 10 occupations in your region both in terms of total numbers employed, and forecasted change to 2020 at the 4-digit SOC level.

What are our top occupations?

Top 10 biggest occupations

Top 10 highest growth occupations

Occupation Change in Jobs (2015-2020) % Change

Care workers and home carers 824 9%

Elementary storage occupations 477 7%

Kitchen and catering assistants 391 6%

Other administrative occupations n.e.c. 371 5%

Bank and post office clerks 368 13%

Book-keepers, payroll managers and wages clerks 349 7%

Cleaners and domestics 346 4%

Nurses 316 5%

Sales accounts and business development managers 279 5%

Electricians and electrical fitters 265 10%

7

Occupation 2015 Jobs 2020 Jobs

Sales and retail assistants12,71812,825

Care workers and home carers8,928

9,752

Cleaners and domestics 7,8908,236

Other administrative occupations n.e.c.7,610

7,981

Elementary storage occupations6,925

7,402

Kitchen and catering assistants 6,644

7,035

Nurses6,150

6,466

Sales accounts and business development managers

5,8886,167

Book-keepers, payroll managers and wages clerks

5,0975,446

Primary and nursery education teaching professionals

4,9715,147

Emsi LEP R

eport | S

win

don

and

Wiltsh

ire LEP

What are our highest paying industriesand occupations?Another important aspect of unlocking your region’s labour market is to look at how much industries and occupations pay. As with the data presented on previous pages, we have drilled right down to the most granular 4-digit SIC and SOC codes to unlock the highest paying industries and occupations in your region.

Industries – Median annual salary

Occupations – Median hourly wage

8

£45.41

£36.36 £35.45 £33.78 £33.30£29.93 £28.52 £28.32 £28.31 £27.37

Aircraft p

ilots

and

flight engineers

Informatio

n tech

nology and

telecommunica

tions d

irectors

Chief execu

tives

and senior o

fficials

Medical p

ractitioners

Air traffic c

ontrolle

rs

Senior pro

fessionals o

f

educatio

nal establish

ments

Legal pro

fessionals n

.e.c.

Dental practit

ioners

Advertisin

g and public

relations d

irectors

Marketing and sa

les dire

ctors

Wholesale of s

olid, liq

uid and

gaseous f

uels and re

lated products

Trade of g

as thro

ugh mains

Insurance

, reinsu

rance and pensio

n funding,

except c

ompulsory

socia

l secu

rity

Manufacture of milit

ary fightin

g vehicles

Research

and experimental

development on biotech

nology

Financial se

rvice activ

ities, e

xcept

insurance

and pension fu

nding

Research

and experimental d

evelopment

on socia

l science

s and humanitie

s

Manufacture of other t

extiles n

.e.c.

Retail sale of a

utomotive fu

el in sp

ecialise

d stores

Other teleco

mmunicatio

ns activ

ities

Emsi LEP R

eport | S

win

don

and

Wiltsh

ire LEP

£60,

919.

35

£60,

776.

69

£59,

136.

26

£50,

445.

45

£47,

651.

71

£45,

950.

08

£45,

889.

48

£45,

674.

82

£45,

191.

46

£44,

363.

26

Manufacture of magnetic and optical media

Where things begin to get really interesting is when we uncover the industries that make your regional economy unique. Our Analyst tool contains a function known as Location Quotient, which is a statistical measure of industry or occupation concentration in an area compared to the rest of the country. Location Quotient works on a benchmark basis, with 1.0 indicating the national average. Therefore, industries and occupations with a score of more than 1.0 indicates that they have an employment profile that is greater than the national average.

What are our niche industries and occupations?

Industry Location Quotient

Occupation Location Quotient

Occupation 2015 LQ 2020 LQ

Rubber process operatives 3.90 3.92

Assemblers (vehicles and metal goods) 2.09 2.00

Moulders, core makers and die casters 2.07 2.61

Farm workers 2.06 2.09

Bank and post office clerks 1.97 2.14

Physical scientists 1.85 1.84

Biological scientists and biochemists 1.80 1.80

Fishing and other elementary agriculture occupations n.e.c. 1.75 1.78

Tyre, exhaust and windscreen fitters 1.70 1.62

Artists 1.65 1.51 9

Industry 2015 LQ 2020 LQ

Manufacture of explosives

Research and experimental development on biotechnology

Manufacture of brooms and brushes

Manufacture of fibre optic cables

Manufacture of military fighting vehicles

Collection of hazardous waste

Manufacture of rubber tyres and tubes; retreading and rebuilding of rubber tyres

Transmission of electricity

Manufacture of other electronic and electric wires and cables

29.2829.13

18.9614.57

13.6913.42

13.0012.16

11.2612.69

11.1511.70

10.457.30

8.367.20

8.275.75

7.117.07

Emsi LEP R

eport | S

win

don

and

Wiltsh

ire LEP

We can also measure which industries and occupations make your region unique using a function on Analyst called Shift Share. Using this function produces a figure known as Competitive Effect, which is similar to Location Quotient, but rather than measuring uniqueness in terms of total jobs, measures it in terms of job growth. What this figure does, therefore, is to explain how much of the change in a given industry or occupation in your region is due to some unique competitive advantage that the region possesses. Positive numbers denote a positive Competitive Effect, and so the larger the number, the greater the Competitive Effect.

What are our most competitive industriesand occupations?

Industry Competitiveness

Occupation Competitiveness

10

Industry Competitive Effect

Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding

Residential care activities for the elderly and disabled

Electrical installation

Business and other management consultancy activities

Primary education

Wholesale of wood, construction materials and sanitary equipment

Postal activities under universal service obligation

Residential nursing care activities

General medical practice activities

General cleaning of buildings

Occupation Competitive Effect

Care workers and home carers 341

Bank and post office clerks 282

Elementary storage occupations 196

Cleaners and domestics 185

Electricians and electrical fitters 154

Financial institution managers and directors 148

Book-keepers, payroll managers and wages clerks 146

Primary and nursery education teaching professionals 142

Postal workers, mail sorters, messengers and couriers 125

Finance and investment analysts and advisers 120

1,606

522

477

436

407

353

264

257

251

235

Emsi LEP R

eport | S

win

don

and

Wiltsh

ire LEP

Where are the jobs in our most niche industry?

11

Emsi LEP R

eport | S

win

don

and

Wiltsh

ire LEP

The data on page 9 showed which industries are most unique to your region. However, we might then ask the question, what are the occupations that these sectors employ? Through our Staffing Pattern function in Analyst, we can answer this question. The data below gives a breakdown of the Top 10 occupations within the third niche sector – Research and experimental development on biotechnology – including numbers employed, employment forecast, hourly earnings and education level (the reason we are using the third niche industry rather than the first or second, is that there are only a few people employed within the Manufacture of magnetic and optical media and Manufacture of explosives sectors). The significance of this information is that you can find out quickly and simply what the occupations are in an industry, and therefore the skillset for that sector. It is worth noting that the process can also be run in reverse, whereby users can begin with an occupation (rather than an industry) and run an Inverse Staffing Pattern to quickly identify the industries that employ this position.

DescriptionEmployed

in Industry (2015)

Employed in Industry

(2020)

Change (2015 –

2020)

% Change (2014 –

2020)

% of Total

Jobs in Industry

(2015)

Median Hourly

Earnings

Education Level

Biological scientists and biochemists 365 424 59 16% 29.4% £18.77

Honours, Bachelor's

degree; BTEC Level 6

Laboratory technicians 94 110 16 17% 7.6% £10.68

Intermedi-ate, DipHE,

DipFE; Level 4 NVQ; BTEC

Level 5

Research and development managers

93 108 15 16% 7.5% £20.14

Honours, Bachelor's

degree; BTEC Level 6

Natural and social science professionals n.e.c.

92 111 19 21% 7.4% £17.14

Honours, Bachelor's

degree; BTEC Level 6

Personal assistants and other secretaries 35 40 5 14% 2.8% £10.68

GCSE at grades A*-C; Level 2 NVQ; BTEC Level 2

Chemical scientists 32 38 6 19% 2.6% £16.42

Honours, Bachelor's

degree; BTEC Level 6

Physical scientists 32 38 6 19% 2.6% £16.85

Honours, Bachelor's

degree; BTEC Level 6

Programmers and software development professionals

32 36 4 13% 2.6% £18.97

Honours, Bachelor's

degree; BTEC Level 6

Functional managers and directors n.e.c. 30 34 4 13% 2.4% £17.94

Honours, Bachelor's

degree; BTEC Level 6

Business and related research professionals

29 33 4 14% 2.3% £15.07

Honours, Bachelor's

degree; BTEC Level 6

To find out more about how Emsi can help your organisation build a better regional economy, contact:

Email: info@economicmodelling.co.uk Phone: 07720 641 651

Web: www.economicmodelling.co.uk Blog: www.economicmodelling.co.uk/blog

Twitter: @EMSI_UK