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1 st Hungarian-Ukrainian Joint Conference on Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and Components. László TÓTH, Hungary Bay Zoltán Institute for Logistics and Production Systems. 11 of April. 1241 Batu khan won against IV. Béla at Muhi 1891 Sergey Prokofjev was born - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
László TÓTH,László TÓTH,
HungaryHungary
Bay Zoltán Institute for Bay Zoltán Institute for Logistics and Production Logistics and Production
SystemsSystems
11stst Hungarian-Ukrainian Joint Conference on Hungarian-Ukrainian Joint Conference on
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsEngineering Plants and Components
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
11 of April11 of April
• 1241 1241 Batu khan won against IV. Béla at MuhiBatu khan won against IV. Béla at Muhi
• 18911891 Sergey Prokofjev was born Sergey Prokofjev was born
• 19001900 Sándor Márai was born Sándor Márai was born
• 1905 1905 Attila József was bornAttila József was born
• 1945 1945 caretaker government of Hungary movecaretaker government of Hungary movedd to to
Budapest from DebrecenBudapest from Debrecen
• 19851985 Ever Hodzsa Ever Hodzsa wwas diedas died
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
12 of April12 of April
• 1861 1861 The The american american civil war has been startedcivil war has been started
• 19381938 Fjodor Saljapin was died Fjodor Saljapin was died
• 19451945 F.D. Roosevelt was died F.D. Roosevelt was died
• 1961 1961 J.A. Gagarin passed the first space flightJ.A. Gagarin passed the first space flight
• 1971 1971 Igor Evenevicsh Tamm physicist was died, Igor Evenevicsh Tamm physicist was died, who hawho hadd received t received thhe Nobel-price (in 1958) e Nobel-price (in 1958)
• 19811981 The first take off of the Columbia space The first take off of the Columbia space shuttleshuttle
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
Space flighSpace fligh: : 12. April, 1961
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
Paul GAUGIN, 1897 (Boston, Museum of Fine Arts, 141x376 cm)
Where We come from? What We Are? Where we are going?
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
The Basic Words in The Basic Words in Technical-Economical Life Technical-Economical Life
Safety Safety
ReliabilityReliability
RiskRisk
CostsCosts
Level of
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Nu
mb
er o
f N
PP
-s
3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48
Years
Designed in 80’s Designed in 70’s
Designed in 50-60’s years
31. December, 2005
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
Reliability conceptReliability concept
At a given technical level !!
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
Event based
approach
Time based
approach
Condi-tion
basedapproach
Relia-bilitybased
approach
Riskbased
approach
1950 1960 1980 1990 1995
STRATEGYSTRATEGY
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Mill
ion
oper
atio
n/se
cond
s
1978 1982 1985 1989 1993 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
RISKRISK=probability of failure
xconsequences
DEFINITION of the System
Determination of theDanger
Consequences Probabiltyp
rob
ab
ility
consequences
RISK
DECISION
TO DO something
To do nothing
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
Goal… critical componentsGoal… critical components• Manage risk =
– define it– identify it– quantify it– rank it– control it– minimize it– …
0102030405060708090
100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 100
% of components
% o
f to
tal
risk
~20% of components yielding ~80% of total risk
~80% of all components yielding ~20% of total risk
… HOW to do itpractically?!?
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
The driving forces of developmentThe driving forces of development
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
Kvantum technology
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
Chernobyl, 26. April 1986. 1323
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
Partners, GuestPartners, Guest
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
Paton’s FamilyPaton’s Family
1918. November 27.
1870. március 5. –1953. július 12.
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
Bay Zoltán (1900 - 1992)
• He measured the distance between the earth and moon using micro-wave technology (06.02.1946.) (Radar astronomy).
• Definition of the unit of the distance, meter (1965-1983)
Safety-Reliability and Risk of Engineering Plants and ComponentsMiskolc, 11 – 12. April, 2006
Thank you for your kind attention!
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