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LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators | 1 May January February March April June Brexit Dust Not Yet Settled; Risk-free Interest Rates Reset Lower Risk-Off: Core Yields Compress Further, Value-Add: Return Requirements Rise Defensive Property Tilts Validated; Spreads Indicate Fair Pricing for Core Volatility and Uncertainty Creates Opportunities to Capitalize on Mispricing DTU-Rich Markets Are Close to Fully Priced, Next Tier Represents Better Value Cycle Charts, Mid-Year ISA Themes, Asset Class Returns LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA PreviewMacro Indicators

LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

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Page 1: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators

| 1

May January February March April June

Brexit Dust Not Yet Settled; Risk-free Interest Rates Reset Lower

Risk-Off: Core Yields Compress Further, Value-Add: Return Requirements Rise

Defensive Property Tilts Validated; Spreads Indicate Fair Pricing for Core

Volatility and Uncertainty Creates Opportunities to Capitalize on Mispricing

DTU-Rich Markets Are Close to Fully Priced, Next Tier Represents Better Value

Cycle Charts, Mid-Year ISA Themes, Asset Class Returns

LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview– Macro Indicators

Page 2: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators

| 2

Based on Bloomberg Global Developed Sovereign Bond Index (maturities over 1 year in developed markets). Weighted based on current market value. Latest as of 6 July 2016

Over 40% of Developed Market Gov’t Bonds Have Negative Yields Result is Likely to Support Core Real Estate Pricing

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Aug

-14

Oct-

14

De

c-1

4

Feb

-15

Apr-

15

Ju

n-1

5

Aug

-15

Oct-

15

De

c-1

5

Feb

-16

Apr-

16

Ju

n-1

6

Share of Gov’t Bonds with Negative Yields1 Bond

Yields 1 Yr 2 Yr 5 Yr 10 Yr 20 Yr 30 Yr

Switzerland -1.00% -1.04% -0.99% -0.62% -0.24% -0.11%

Germany -0.62% -0.68% -0.60% -0.18% 0.09% 0.35%

Japan -0.34% -0.33% -0.35% -0.27% 0.02% 0.05%

France -0.56% -0.61% -0.40% 0.13% 0.70% 0.88%

UK 0.19% 0.13% 0.35% 0.77% 1.45% 1.58%

US 0.44% 0.58% 0.94% 1.37% 1.75% 2.14%

Canada 0.50% 0.49% 0.54% 0.97% 1.55% 1.55%

Page 3: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators

| 3

Sharp Currency and Equity Market Reaction to Brexit Sterling Down 11% vs. Euro

Source: Bloomberg. Data to 6 July 2016.

Sterling vs. USD and EUR

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

12/15 01/16 02/16 03/16 04/16 05/16 06/16

£ to $ £ to €

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

12/15 01/16 02/16 03/16 04/16 05/16 06/16

FTSE 100

FTSE 250

EPRA UK REITs (Local)

UK Equity Indices (23 June = 100)

The FTSE 100 index is comprised of major exporters whose revenue is primarily in currencies other than sterling, so has

been resilient. The FTSE 250 and EPRA UK REIT index have seen sharper declines of 9.6% and 21.0%, respectively.

Page 4: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators

| 4

Source: Bloomberg, LaSalle. Updated 6 July 2016

Implied Risk-Free Rates in Ten Years Have Plunged YTD

Suggests Higher Residual Values for Core Real Estate

10Y Government Bonds

-0.3

0.3

0.8

1.3

1.8

2.3

2.8

3.3

De

c-1

1

Ap

r-12

Au

g-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ap

r-13

Au

g-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ap

r-14

Au

g-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ap

r-15

Au

g-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ap

r-16

10

Ye

ar

Yie

lds, %

US: 1.37% Germany: -0.18%

UK: 0.77% Japan: -0.27%

Yield Curve Implied 10Y Rate in 2026

Based on

Yield

Curve on

12/31/15

Based on

Yield

Curve on

7/6/16

Change

(bps)

Germany 1.95 0.36 -159

Japan 1.84 0.36 -148

France 2.63 1.32 -131

UK 3.23 2.24 -99

Australia 4.18 3.2 -98

United States 3.19 2.23 -96

Mexico 8.03 7.22 -81

South Korea 2.29 1.58 -71

Canada 3.06 2.45 -61

Page 5: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators

| 5

Quotes of the Month

Martin Wolf, writing in the Financial Times on 24 June

Angela Merkel sets out the EU negotiating position, 28 June

#Brexit #brexitregret #Regrexit

“The UK, Europe, the west and the world are damaged…

business simply does not know how politicians will end

up approaching the difficult negotiations ahead. This

uncertainty has always been the obvious result of a vote

to leave. Only time will clear this fog… The UK did well

inside the EU. It is unlikely to do as well outside it.”

Tremors Spreading to Southern Europe

“We know what we have to do on the banks and we’ll do it

knowing it serves the country and respects European rules…

We are not here to be given a lesson by the schoolteacher”

[German Chancellor Angela Merkel]

Italian PM Renzi considers breaking EU Rules

to bail out Italian banks , 30 June 2016 press conference

Updated Probabilities

July 2016 Fed Rate Hike (implied

by futures today) 0%

Fed Rate Hike by Dec 2016 (implied by futures today)

12%

Trump winning the US

Presidential election (Predictwise) 26%

2nd EU Referendum in UK (based on Paddy Power bookmaker odds)

21%

“We will make sure that negotiations will not be carried out as a

cherry-picking exercise…Whoever wants to leave this family

cannot expect to shed all its responsibilities but keep the

privileges”

WOLFGANG KUMM/DPA Expanded Panama Canal Opens

Page 6: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators

| 6

Brexit: Uncertainty Could Persist Until the End of the Decade Possible Timeline for UK Exit of EU

EFTA = European Free Trade Area ; EUCU = European Union Customs Union

Source: LaSalle (06/16)

Referendum in favour

of EU exit

Negotiation of existing

relationship

UK leaves EU but joins

EFTA or EUCU

Negotiation of future

relationship

Significant

Uncertainty Moderate

Uncertainty

2016 2017 2018 2019 2025

No

Uncertainty

Rebalanced economy

away from EU

If not low rent/long lease/strong

covenant, then consider selling value-

add in London (especially City offices)

Modest caution persists for value-add in London. Watch for delayed or

gradual impact on occupier demand for; South East offices, South East

industrials, student housing & secondary retail

Business as usual

Acquire low risk assets that may have

been mispriced along with high risk

assets

With the worst of the uncertainty in the past, rents will have bottomed

out and yields peaked. Consider resuming prior investment activity Business as usual

Level of Uncertainty

Real Estate Investment Recommendations: Purchases

Real Estate Investment Recommendations: Sales

Page 7: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators

| 7

Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week

Look out for our updated views on recommended real estate

investment strategy in the Mid-Year ISA report over the next week.

Other Recent Research at http://www.lasalle.com/research

The Impact of

Brexit on UK

Real Estate

The Impact of

Brexit on

Continental

European Real

Estate

LaSalle and JLL’s Global Real Estate Transparency Index was released in June, highlighting dozens of new developments in performance measurement, available data, new laws affecting property, and sustainability. Full results at: http://www.jll.com/greti

Page 8: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators

| 8

To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2 Forecast)

Average Annual

Total Return

Global

Stocks1

Global RE

Securities2

Global

Corporate

Bonds3

Global

Govt.

Bonds4

UK Direct

Property

(IPD)5

US Direct

Property

(NCREIF)6

Canada

Direct

Property

(IPD)7

Australia

Direct

Property

(IPD)8

1 Year -2.6% 12.6% 7.1% 8.5% 9.2% 11.4% 7.6% 13.7%

3 Years 8.7% 8.9% 5.3% 5.7% 13.7% 11.8% 7.9% 11.7%

5 Years 8.6% 8.6% 5.6% 5.1% 9.9% 11.7% 10.3% 10.8%

10 Years 5.2% 5.0% 5.9% 4.6% 4.8% 7.5% 9.8% 9.3%

20 Years 6.3% 8.5% 6.2% 4.9% 8.9% 9.9% 11.1% 10.6%

2016 to June 23 1.2% 8.3% 5.6% 4.7% 2.8%* (1H) 5.0%* (1H) 2.1%* (1H) 5.9%* (1H)

Since June 23 -1.7% 0.8% 2.3% 2.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A

Mid-Year 2016 Returns Bonds and Property Outperformed Equities Over Last Year

Notes on Sources

1. MSCI All Country Gross World Total Return Index in Local Currency

2. EPRA/NAREIT Global (Developed) Index Total Return in US Dollars

3. Citigroup World Corporate Bond Index Total Return in US Dollars (Local Currency History Not Available Prior to 1999)

4. Citigroup World Government Bond Index All Maturities Total Returns in Local Currency

5. UK Investment Property Databank (IPD) Quarterly Standing Property Total Returns in British Pounds, data prior to Dec 2001 is IPD Annual.

6. US NCREIF Property Index Total Returns in US Dollars

7. Canada Investment Property Databank (IPD) Quarterly Standing Property Total Returns in Canada Dollars

8. Australia Investment Property Databank (IPD) Quarterly Standing Property Total Returns in Australian Dollars

*2Q 2016 quarterly return for UK, Canada, Australia , and US is forecast. Actual data history through 1Q 2016. Updated 6 July 2016

Page 9: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators

| 9

United States

Sector 2016 to

23 June

Since 23

June

US REITs 9.9% 4.5%

US Triple Net 23.3% 9.0%

US Single Family Homes for

Rent 18.2% 7.7%

US Self Storage -1.2% 7.3%

US Shopping Centers 10.9% 7.2%

US Life Sciences 18.0% 6.7%

US Student Housing 20.5% 6.0%

US Apartments -3.7% 6.0%

US Health Care 11.4% 5.5%

US Regional Malls 7.2% 5.1%

US Data Centers 34.5% 3.1%

US Office 5.2% 2.3%

US Industrial 21.8% 1.5%

US Hotels 4.3% -1.3%

REIT Returns Year to Date Highlight Risk-Off Shift Defensive Niche Sectors Rally Post-Brexit; UK REITs Down Sharply

Europe

Sector

2016 to

23

June

Since 23

June

UK REITs -0.3% -29.1%

Continental

Europe 11.3% -4.4%

Europe

Residential 14.9% -4.5%

Europe Hotels -8.3% -7.2%

Europe Retail 7.1% -15.2%

Europe

Healthcare 9.1% -17.5%

Europe

Diversified REITs 1.0% -21.9%

Europe Office 3.7% -19.6%

Europe Industrial 6.6% -22.3%

Asia Pacific

Sector

2016 to

23

June

Since 23

June

Hong Kong

REITs -0.4% 4.9%

Japan REITs 5.9% 3.6%

Singapore

REITs 8.9% 2.5%

Australia REITs 19.7% 2.3%

AP Residential 17.7% 9.7%

AP Office 20.0% 4.9%

AP Retail 17.2% 4.3%

AP Industrial 15.6% 4.0%

AP Diversified 2.2% 2.5%

AP Hotels 18.6% 0.7%

Source: NAREIT, EPRA, LaSalle Securities. Data to 5 July 2016

Page 10: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators

| 10

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Net in

flow

s into

pro

pert

y f

unds (

£m

)

Net Retail Fund Inflows 6-Month Rolling Inflows Average Inflows

Net Flows to UK Real Estate Retail Funds

UK Retail Real Estate Funds Face Accelerated Outflows and Freeze

Average inflow

Source: LaSalle (06/16) IMA (03/16)

Latest update (July 6th): Six UK open-ended funds have suspended redemptions since the Brexit vote of June 23rd.

These funds represent more than 60% of UK retail funds.

UK retail real estate funds were facing outflows before Brexit and have an inherent mismatch between their promise of

liquidity to small investors and their less liquid assets. They represent a small 7% share of UK commercial real estate.

Page 11: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators

| 11

Risks to real estate will peak in the 12-24 months following the vote. Expect negative yield impact

for lower yielding assets and negative rental impact on Central London offices.

In our view, the long-term impact of a Brexit remains broadly neutral on the UK but short term

GDP growth could fall to 1% (from 2.4% in 2016/17).

Brexit may open-up mis-priced opportunities in 2017, as our view is of long term impact of Brexit

being neutral is more positive than consensus or PMA.

Whilst acknowledging the exposed sectors/locations highlighted in this analysis, new acquisitions

should exhibit one or more of the following features:

Their location is improving thanks to infrastructure and demographic changes

Tenant demand will be rewarded by increased rents in the short term

Have optionality of the asset’s use, reflecting the underlying value of the land.

Reduce leverage levels and anticipate liquidity needs if credit tightens or equity flows freeze up

Trade limited upside for a preferred return such as mezzanine debt & whole loans

Cull portfolios of non-strategic assets: take advantage of market liquidity and sell assets that lack

long-term potential or optionality and redeploy

Brexit Impact on UK

Source: LaSalle (06/16). For a very detailed analysis of the potential impact please see our March 2016 paper entitled “The Impact of Brexit on UK Real Estate” (refreshed post-

referendum results on June 24th).

Conclusions & Investment Considerations

Page 12: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators

| 12

Brexit Impact on Continental Europe

The importance of peace & stability means that Germany and

France will stabilize and further integrate the EU (and also

pause further EU expansion)

The European consumer will be pretty insensitive to Brexit.

Trade flows will not collapse: Germany, Netherlands, Poland

and others run trade surpluses above 1% of GDP with the UK.

The negative GDP impact for the rest of EU will be very modest.

The EU is likely to lose international influence

The EU’s relative competitiveness will be tested by the UK’s new

tax / regulations framework.

Political implications will be more far-reaching than economic impacts

Source: LaSalle (06/16). For a very detailed analysis of the potential impact please see our May 2016 paper entitled “The Impact of Brexit on Continental European Real Estate”

(refreshed post-referendum results on June 24th).

Page 13: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators

| 13

Real estate winners and losers following Brexit Relocation of Capital, People & FDI Will Generally Benefit Continental

European Real Estate

• Paris and Frankfurt

offices

• German and Dutch

residential markets

• Student housing on

the Continent

LOSERS WINNERS

• London City offices

• UK-EU trade-led

industrial markets

• EU budget shortfall

(€6.1bn)

Page 14: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators

| 14

Early

Recovery

Recovery Expansion Mature

Cycle

Falling Bottoming

1 2 3 4 5 6

Where are we in the economic cycle? Mid year 2016

Source: LaSalle (06/16)

Economic Cycle

China

U.K.

U.S.

Germany

Canada

Spain

Australia

France

Italy

Japan

Page 15: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators

| 15

Early

Recovery

Recovery Expansion Mature

Cycle

Falling Bottoming

1 2 3 4 5 6

Where are we in the occupier market cycle? Mid year 2016

Source: LaSalle (06/16)

Note: China represents Shanghai & Beijing

Occupier Market Cycle

U.K.

Canada Resource Driven

Australia Resource Driven

Canada Non-Resource Driven

Australia Non-Resource Driven

China

U.S.

Japan

Germany

Spain

Italy France

Page 16: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators

| 16

Early

Recovery

Recovery Expansion Mature

Cycle

Falling Bottoming

1 2 3 4 5 6

Where are we in the capital market cycle? Mid year 2016

Source: LaSalle (06/16)

Note: China represents Shanghai & Beijing

Capital Market Cycle

Canada Resource Driven

Australia Resource Driven

Canada Non-Resource Driven

Australia Non-Resource Driven

U.K.

China

U.S.

Japan

Germany

France

Spain

Italy

Page 17: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators

| 17

30-Day Change

+14* All-time

Max +104

All-time

Min -91

Citi Economic Surprise Index*

Citi Economic Surprise Index*

30-Day Change

+24* All-time

Max +133

All-time

Min -112

LaSalle News Barometer in June / July

• Low unemployment (4.7%) and fewer

unemployment claims continue to

indicate an improving labor market.

• Expanded Panama Canal opened.

• Q1 GDP was revised up to 1.1%. Real

time indicators (like the Fed’s GDP-

Now) suggest Q2 GDP will be higher

• Direct impact of Brexit fallout on

Canada forecast to be minimal: 4% of

exports, 1% of imports tied to UK.

Asia

-Pacif

ic

Economy

Eu

rop

e

No

rth

Am

eri

ca

• Result awaited in Australian

election as votes counted

• Japanese Upper House

election on 10 July

• Bank of Japan monetary

policy meeting 28-29 July

Upcoming Events Real Estate Impact

• The Moody’s / RCA CPPI index shows

that US property prices have stabilized.

Prices rose slightly in March and April by

this measure, following three months of

slight declines.

• Construction lending has pulled back.

• Lower risk-free rates will likely put

renewed downward pressure on core cap

rates.

• Leasing velocity is likely to slow.

• The UK voted to leave the EU by a 52

/48 margin on 23 June, but has not yet

formally started the legal departure

process.

• Eurozone finance ministers have

offered Greece debt relief from 2018 if

the country delivers by then on all

reforms agreed under its latest bailout.

• In Spain, King Felipe VI decided that no

political party has enough support to

form a government and confirmed that

new elections would be held.

• Risks will remain elevated for 12-24

months but the current turmoil is also an

opportunity for cross-border investors to

enter the UK at an attractive basis.

• Best UK ideas, resilient to Brexit, include

PRS, income producing assets on sites

with alternative uses, and mezzanine

debt.

• Urban retail, edge of CBD offices, urban

logistics and mezzanine debt are favored

core strategies on the Continent.

• UK PM Cameron’s

successor to be elected by

Conservative party

members , with result on 9

Sept.

• Italy expected to hold

constitutional reform

referendum in October.

• Spain expected to form

their new government over

the next month.

Citi Economic Surprise Index*

30-Day Change

-29* All-time

Max +116

All-time

Min -101

• Bank of Korea interest rate cut to 1.25%

• The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its

interest rate to 1.75% as inflation

remained low

• Total Social Financing fell short of

expectation by half and money supply

M2 growth was below target rate of

13%.

• Fallout from Brexit is expected to be

limited. The UK is a relatively small

trading partner with Asia-Pacific.

• Safe haven flows to Japan.

• Substantial reserves and low external

debt will help China avoid a hard

landing. The weaker renminbi may also

help exports to the US.

• Australian office, warehouses in HK and

Singapore among top investment ideas.

• US Jobs report, 8 July.

• US Presidential nominating

conventions are in July:

Democrats meet in

Philadelphia July 25-28 and

Republicans meet in

Cleveland July 18-21

• Fed’s FOMC meets July 26-27

Source: Citi, Bloomberg. *Because the Citi Economic surprise indices are based on macro data releases, they

have been little affected by Brexit to date and so were not used this month to set our newsmeter.

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| 18

Source: Bloomberg Survey of Forecasters – Latest forecasts as of 5 July 2016. UK forecast is based on Bloomberg Consensus forecast including only sources with forecasts revised

after the Brexit vote.

GDP Revisions Have Been Down Through Mid-Year 2016 UK GDP Forecast Revised Sharply Down in Face of Brexit

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

GD

P G

row

th

2016 Forecast as of Dec. 2015 2016 Forecast 2017 Forecast 2018 Forecast

GDP Growth Forecasts

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| 19

1400

1450

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

31

-De

c-1

5

31

-Ja

n-1

6

29

-Fe

b-1

6

31

-Ma

r-1

6

30

-Apr-

16

31

-Ma

y-1

6

30

-Ju

n-1

6

Downside Surprises Define 2016 to Date Slowing China, Populist Politics, and Negative Interest Rates

MSCI World Index

Source: Bloomberg. Updated 6 July 2016

China cuts reserve requirements.

US reports slowing

Job growth of 151k in Jan.

Yellen

testimony

focuses on

slower

growth

Abe delays sales tax rise in

Japan Weak

China PMI

Reading

Bank of Japan

announces

negative rates Ch

ina

re

po

rts

6.9

% G

DP

China

eases,

lowers

growth

target

Weak China PMI,

AUS cuts rates

Holding Fire: Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko

Kuroda did not introduce new monetary stimulus

on 28 August

ECB Cuts

Rates

Panama Papers

breaks

Rousseff suspended

ECB starts

buying corporate

bonds

Brexit vote

Expanded

Panama

Canal opens

EU approves

some Italian

guarantees

to banks

Page 20: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

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| 20

A Leading Indicator for Real Estate: Corporate Bond Spreads

Source: Bloomberg

European Spread is based on 5 year notes; US BAA spread based on 30 year notes; US High Yield spread based on 10 year notes; UK investment grade spread based on 10 year

notes; UK high yield spread based on 5 year notes. Updated 6 July 2016

Inv. Grade Corporate Bond Spreads

Up in UK, Less Movement in Europe and US

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016S

pre

ad t

o R

isk F

ree (

bps)

Europe High Yield Bonds

US High Yield Bonds

UK High Yield Bonds

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Spre

ad t

o R

isk F

ree (

bps)

US BAA Corporate Bonds

Europe Investment Grade Bonds

UK Investment Grade Bonds

High Yield Corporate Bond Spreads

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LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators

| 21

5.5

5.7

5.9

6.1

6.3

6.5

6.7

6.9

7.1

7.3

7.5

Ja

n-1

0

Ap

r-10

Ju

l-1

0

Oct-

10

Ja

n-1

1

Ap

r-11

Ju

l-1

1

Oct-

11

Ja

n-1

2

Ap

r-12

Ju

l-1

2

Oct-

12

Ja

n-1

3

Ap

r-13

Ju

l-1

3

Oct-

13

Ja

n-1

4

Ap

r-14

Ju

l-1

4

Oct-

14

Ja

n-1

5

Ap

r-15

Ju

l-1

5

Oct-

15

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-16

Ju

l-1

6

US

D –

CN

Y E

xch

an

ge

Rate

Daily allowed trading band

PBOC Widens Trading

Band to 1% from 0.5%

RMB Weakens vs. Dollar

Source: Bloomberg. Updated 6 July 2016

Down by 1.6% Since 23 June

China’s foreign exchange reserves stabilized in March, April, and May, following steep declines over the previous 12

months.

PBOC Widens Trading

Band to 2% from 1%

Surprise devaluation of

Approximately 3%

Over 2 Days

RMB Exchange Rate

China confirms and provides details on RMB

tracking mixed currency basket, rather than USD only

Page 22: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators

| 22

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Ap

r-9

2

Ap

r-9

4

Ap

r-9

6

Ap

r-9

8

Ap

r-0

0

Ap

r-0

2

Ap

r-0

4

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

6

Y/Y

Tra

de

Gro

wth

Global Merchandise Trade Growth

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Cro

ss

Bo

rde

r %

of

To

tal V

olu

me

, T

TM

Cross Border RE Transaction Volume, %

World Goods Trade Stalls, But Capital Flows Still Going Global

Cross Border Has Accounted for Greater Share of Transactions Since 2013

Source: CPB World Trade Monitor, Real Capital Analytics. Data latest as of 6 July 2016.

The upward trend in cross-border transaction volume as a share of all trades was reversed in the first half of 2016. It is

too early to tell if this is a temporary result of the particular property mix YTD, or a meaningful shift.

Page 23: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators

| 23

Spread of 10-Year Government Bonds to 2-Year Government Rate

Source: Moody’s Analytics, Bloomberg. Updated 6 July 2016

Term Spread Falls to Post-GFC Low After Brexit Reliable Leading Indicator at Lowest Point Since 2008 in Both US and UK

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

10

-Ye

ar

Sp

rea

d to

Ove

rnig

ht R

ese

rve

Ra

te (

bp

s)

US Spread UK Spread

US

Recessions

Spread Falls and Turns Negative

Before Recessions

Page 24: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators

| 24

Crude Oil Price per Barrel (Brent)

Source: Bloomberg. As of 6 July 2016

Oil Prices Up 32% Year-to-Date in 2016 Price Flat Since Late May

The stronger dollar makes oil, priced in USD, costlier for those in other currencies. As a result, this will likely put upward

pressure on inflation in the UK and keep inflation pressures very low in the US.

$25

$40

$55

$70

$85

$100

$115

Ap

r-1

4

May-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-14

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Feb

-15

Mar-

15

Ap

r-1

5

May-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-15

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

Dec-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-1

6

May-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Ju

l-16

June 19: $115.06

20 Jan:

$27.88

6 July:

$49.23

Page 25: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators

| 25

Italian Banks – Bad Debt to Total Assets

Source: Bloomberg. Latest data as of 6 July 2016.

Italian Banks Approach Crisis Need to Write Off Bad Debts to Regain Credibility, But Lack the Capital to Do So

One potential resolution is to raise capital by “bailing-in” bondholders, but in Italy many of these bondholders are retail

investors that did not appreciate the risk of these instruments. The Atalante (“Atlas”) rescue fund has far too little capital to

address this problem in its current form. Another solution – and the one apparently preferred by PM Renzi – is a direct

capital infusion / bailout , but this goes against EU rules.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r-0

0

Ap

r-0

1

Ap

r-0

2

Ap

r-0

3

Ap

r-0

4

Ap

r-0

5

Ap

r-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Too much weight for Atlas

Page 26: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators

| 26

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Num

be

r o

f U

nic

orn

s

North America Europe

Asia MENA

South America

WeWork

Credit Karma

Eventbrite

Coupang

Uber

Snapchat

Stripe

SpaceX

Flipkart

Pintrest

Full year 2016

totals if

fundraising

continues at

current pace

Home 24

Coupa

Panshi

Lyft

Shazam

Anaplan

Skyscanner

Shopclues

Ping An Good

Doctor Source: CB Insights Latest data as of 5 July 2016

Unicorns are Getting Rarer Pace of Tech Unicorn Creation is Down from 2014-15

Number of Private Tech Start-ups with $1BN+ Valuations

Exam

ple

s

SurveyMonkey

Dropbox

Airbnb

VANCL Bloom

Energy

Most Recent Unicorns

Chicago

$1.0 B

June 13th

Beijing

$1.0 B

June 28th

Irvine, CA

$1.0 B

June 8th

San Francisco

$1.0 B

June 3rd

Page 27: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators

| 27

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

Source: Bloomberg. Updated 6 July 2016

Currency Earthquake After Brexit Sweden, China, Turkey, Poland Follow Pound Lower vs. Dollar

Change in Local Currency Value vs. US Dollar, January to June 23, 2016

Change in Local Currency Value vs. US Dollar Since Brexit Referendum

UK:

-13.1%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

Unite

d K

ing

do

mS

wed

en

Po

lan

d

Hun

gary

Mexic

oT

urk

ey

Eu

ro

Czech

Re

pu

blic

So

uth

Afr

ica

Arg

entin

aS

witze

rlan

dIs

rae

l

Chin

aM

oro

cco

Can

ada

So

uth

Ko

rea

Ph

ilipp

ine

sA

ustr

alia

Taiw

an

Russia

Sin

ga

po

re

Mala

ysia

Costa

Ric

aIn

dia

Nig

eri

a

Ku

wait

Tha

ilan

dE

gyp

tS

au

di A

rabia

Le

ba

no

n

Qa

tar

Unite

d A

rab

Em

ira

tes

Hon

g K

ong

Pa

na

ma

An

go

laV

ietn

am

Pe

ruO

man

Ba

ng

lad

esh

Bra

zil

Ke

nya

Ind

on

esia

Chile

Ja

pan

Page 28: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators

| 28

UK & Europe

Italy Facing Banking Crisis, Referendum “The vultures are circling” Divorce announced

Page 29: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators

| 29

PMI Business Activity Index [6 month rolling average]

Source: LaSalle (06/16) Markit (05/16)

London’s Business Activity Ranking Lowest Since December 2014 Economic Climate

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

PM

I B

usin

ess A

ctivity Index

UK London Rest of UK

Page 30: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators

| 30

Cumulative Employment Growth

[2016-25]

Source: LaSalle (05/16) Oxford Economics (04/16)

Wealth More Widespread than Employment Prospects

Cumulative Disposable Income Growth

[2016-25]

Economic Axis from South to North West Most Positive Weak

Strong

Better prospects for

employment & spending

all sectors to benefit

Pockets of growth in

key markets/corridors

core strategies

advised but value-add

with caution

Page 31: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators

| 31

UK Investment Recommendations at Mid-Year Focus on Core as we enter the next phase of the cycle

Core Value-Add Opportunistic

Defensive Income

Best

Opportunities PRS

Outer London & rest of UK

Income on sites

with high

alternative use

value UK

Offices & multi-let

industrial incl.

refurbishment Gtr London & Major Cities

Brexit-related

repricing

DTU-led planning

risk & urban

regeneration UK

Mezzanine debt &

whole loans UK

Mezzanine debt &

whole loans UK

Other

Opportunities

Inflation-linked with

long-term site

value (especially

re-priced top

supermarkets) UK

Multi-let leisure UK

Urban logistics

development Major markets

Long hold

irreplaceable

assets Major cities

Prime shopping

centres & dominant

parks UK

PRS = Private Rented Sector (Residential)

DTU = Demographics, Technology, Urbanisation

Source: LaSalle (05/16)

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LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators

| 32

0

2

4

6

8

10

Q106

Q107

Q108

Q109

Q110

Q111

Q112

Q113

Q114

Q115

Q116

0

3

6

9

12

15

Office take-up & vacancy rate Europe’s 40 largest office markets

Annual take-up in million sqm (LHS)

Vacancy rate in % (RHS)

Sources: JLL (04/16), LaSalle (05/16)

Office Take-Up Reaching a Ten Year High on the Continent City of London at Risk

Berlin

Prague

Stockholm

Paris WBD

Paris CBD

Munich

Frankfurt

Warsaw

London WE

Madrid

Amsterdam

Milan

Stuttgart

Hamburg

Paris La Défense

London City

-20 0 20 40 60

Office take-up change Year to Q1 2016 vs year to Q1 2015 (y/y, %)

Page 33: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators

| 33

Source: JLL / LaSalle (02/16)

*Sectors: Offices, Industrial, Retail Shops, Shopping Centres, Retail Warehouses;

Weighted by IPD/LaSalle’s estimates of investable market size.

Yields on Income-Producing Property Hit All-Time Low With the Exception of UK, Yields May Fall Further In Unprecedented Territory

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

Q102

Q302

Q103

Q303

Q104

Q304

Q105

Q305

Q106

Q306

Q107

Q307

Q108

Q308

Q109

Q309

Q110

Q310

Q111

Q311

Q112

Q312

Q113

Q313

Q114

Q314

Q115

Q315

Q116

Prime Property Yield Weighted average of 210 European market segments*

Mid 2009:

6.20%

End 2010:

5.50%

End 2012:

5.40% Q1 2016:

4.45% Q2 2007:

4.55%

Page 34: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators

| 34

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream (04/16), JLL (Q1 16)

Case Study: Switzerland may be an indicator of Europe’s future Negative Bond Yields Mean Property Yields Can Go Even Lower

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Q2

05

Q4

05

Q2

06

Q4

06

Q2

07

Q4

07

Q2

08

Q4

08

Q2

09

Q4

09

Q2

10

Q4

10

Q2

11

Q4

11

Q2

12

Q4

12

Q2

13

Q4

13

Q2

14

Q4

14

Q2

15

Q4

15

Cause: Switzerland: Interest rate & govt. bond yield

%

Interest Rate Govt bond yield

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Q2

05

Q4

05

Q2

06

Q4

06

Q2

07

Q4

07

Q2

08

Q4

08

Q2

09

Q4

09

Q2

10

Q4

10

Q2

11

Q4

11

Q2

12

Q4

12

Q2

13

Q4

13

Q2

14

Q4

14

Q2

15

Q4

15

Consequence: Switzerland: prime office yield & govt. bond yield

%

Spread Prime office yield Govt bond yield

Yield premium of real

estate is increasing

Page 35: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators

| 35

*Shopping centres and prime high street shops

DTU = Demographics, Technology, Urbanisation

Source: LaSalle (06/16)

Continental Europe Investment Recommendations Few Changes at Mid-Year

Core Value-Add Opportunistic

Defensive Income

Best

Opportunities

Urban or

dominant retail*

DE, FR, NL, SE,

IT, ES, PL,CZ

Edge of CBD

offices

Paris, German Top 5

Paris office

Refurbishments &

VEFA development Build-to-Core office

Gateway cities

Urban Logistics

Gateway cities

Aparthotels

Gateway cities and

travel hubs Residential

development

NL, DE

Mezzanine debt & whole loans

Other

Opportunities

Rented

residential

DE, NL

Student housing DTU-led planning

risk & urban

regeneration

Permanent Locations Rental recovery

Spain and Italy

Retail repositioning

W. Europe & PL, CZ

Page 36: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators

| 36

Asia Pacific

Delay in Tax Hike Still Counting the Votes in Australia Bank of China Reserves Backstop Economy

Page 37: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

LaSalle Investment Management | 37

Source: Bloomberg, as of 1st July 2016

Investors Seek Relative Security of REITs REIT Prices Fare Better Than All Equities

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

101

102

103

01-J

un

03-J

un

05-J

un

07-J

un

09-J

un

11-J

un

13-J

un

15-J

un

17-J

un

19-J

un

21-J

un

23-J

un

25-J

un

27-J

un

29-J

un

Vo

lum

e (

mil

sh

are

s)

Ind

ex

Australian Share Indexes, June 23rd 2016 = 100

ASX 200 REIT Volume ASX 200 ASX 200 REIT

Brexit

vote

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

01-J

un

03-J

un

05-J

un

07-J

un

09-J

un

11-J

un

13-J

un

15-J

un

17-J

un

19-J

un

21-J

un

23-J

un

25-J

un

27-J

un

29-J

un

Vo

lum

e (

‘00

0 s

ha

res)

Ind

ex

Japanese Share Indexes, June 23rd 2016 = 100

TSE REIT Trading Volume Nikkei 225 TSE REIT Index

Brexit

vote

Japanese Share Price & Volume Indexes,

June 23rd 2016= 100

Australian Share Price & Volume Indexes,

June 23rd 2016= 100

Page 38: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators

| 38

Note: 1) Asia Pacific includes Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea and Emerging & Developing Asia. 2) All figures are as of end 2015 and are denoted

in USD billion.

* Please note “EU” includes the UK.

Source: IMF

UK and EU are Not Key Trading Partners of Asia Pacific AP Countries Have Been Trading More With Each Other than US and EU

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

APAC Tradewith U.S.

APAC Tradewith EU*

Intra-APACTrade

US

$ T

rillio

n

Asia Pacific Trade Volume among Trade Partners

Exports Imports

APAC Intra-regional Trade

Outpaced Trade with Other

Parts of the World post GFC

Page 39: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

LaSalle Investment Management | 39

More room for rate cuts in several countries

Source: Oxford Economics, as of 2Q2016

AP Countries Still Have Considerable Policy Ammunition While Japan and China Face Debt Challenges, They Are Largely Domestic

Low external debt levels in Japan and China

(2015, % of GDP)

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

1Q

00

2Q

01

3Q

02

4Q

03

1Q

05

2Q

06

3Q

07

4Q

08

1Q

10

2Q

11

3Q

12

4Q

13

1Q

15

2Q

16

%

US Australia China Hong Kong

Japan South Korea UK

320

106 98

67

8

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

UnitedKingdom

Australia UnitedStates

Japan China%

of G

DP

While total debt levels are

high in Japan and China,

the majority of debt is

domestic and not externally

held

Page 40: LaSalle’s Mid-Year ISA Preview Macro Indicators · Mid-Year Update to the Investment Strategy Annual To Be Released in the Next Week ... To 30 June 2016 (Actuals) To 2Q 2016 (Q2

LaSalle Investment Management | LaSalle’s Macro Indicators

| 40

Source: Oxford Economics, as of May 2016

China, Unlike Japan, Has a Debt Cushion Large trade surpluses and foreign reserves could potentially buffer China

Trade Surplus (billions USD)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020e

China (2000-2020)

Japan (1985-2000)

?

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Japan (1990) China (2015)

Ratio of Foreign Reserves to GDP

1981 1985 1990 1995 2000

Japan Timeline

China Timeline

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LaSalle Investment Management | 41 Source: LaSalle Investment Management as of 6 July 2016.

DEBT / EQUITY

IMBALANCE 2

SUPPLY / DEMAND

IMBALANCE 1

Cost of RE debt

Bank exposure to

CRE loans

Banks Equity Price

Index

Oversupply Risk

Recession Risk

Corporate Bond

Spreads

KEY: Headed in the right direction;

minimal concern.

POSITIVE Clear signal of potential

disruption or downturn

DANGER Consider reducing

risk.

CAUTION

Yield Spread vs

Bonds

REITS vs.

Equities

Real Capital

Value Growth

PRICING

IMBALANCE 3

Caution and Danger Signals:

• Real estate supply reflects strong office supply in some CBD markets, but non-CBD office and

other sectors moderate

• Recession risk is still influenced by many external risks, but domestic economy is still solid

• Bank equity prices have fallen, but majors do still appear in strong shape relative to global peers

Assessment

Australia Capital Market Dashboard: Few Signs of Stress

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LaSalle Investment Management | 42 Source: LaSalle Investment Management as of 6 July 2016

DEBT / EQUITY

IMBALANCE 2

SUPPLY / DEMAND

IMBALANCE 1

Cost of RE debt

Bank exposure to

CRE loans

Banks Equity Price

Index

Oversupply Risk

Recession Risk

Corporate Bond

Spreads

KEY: Headed in the right direction;

minimal concern.

POSITIVE Clear signal of potential

disruption or downturn

DANGER Consider reducing

risk.

CAUTION

Yield Spread vs

Bonds

REITS vs.

Equities

Real Capital

Value Growth

PRICING

IMBALANCE 3

Caution and Danger Signals:

• Oversupply Risk refers to Tokyo Grade-A office supply, which is expected to sharply rise in 2018

• Corporate Bond Spreads widened due mainly to a sharp fall in government bond rate

• Bank Equity Price Index have fallen below its 12-month trailing average, driven by concern on

negative interest rates

• Real Estate vs. JGBs reflects implied cap rate spread close to historical average

Assessment

Japan Capital Markets Dashboard: Safe Haven Attracts Risk-Off Investors

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2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

Sy

dn

ey

Melb

ou

rne

Se

ou

l

To

ky

o

Ho

ng

Ko

ng

Be

ijin

g

Sh

an

gh

ai

Sin

ga

po

re

Lo

nd

on

Pa

ris

Sa

n F

ran

cis

co

New

Yo

rk

Asia Europe United States

Pri

me

Off

ice

Cap

Ra

te (

Gro

ss

)

Long Term 10y Avg - Cap Rate Current Cap Rate

Source: JLL REIS, as of 1Q2016

Notes: 1) All series refers to prime office; 2) Market s represented above are Sydney CBD, Melbourne CBD, Tokyo 3kus, Shanghai CBD, Beijing CBD, Hong Kong Central,

Singapore Marina Bay, Seoul CBD, London West End, Paris CBD, New York CBD, and San Francisco CBD

Strong Core Asset Pricing in Asia Pacific and Globally Opportunities in under-valued assets for value creation & build-to-core in AP

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Mid-Year 2016 Investment Recommendations – Asia Pacific

Best

Opportunities Core Value-Add Opportunistic

Secondary

Opportunities

Australia Melbourne CBD and

Sydney Metropolitan

Office

Office Lease-

up/Refurbishment, Mixed-

use Infill Retail

Redevelopment of Secondary

Office Stock

China Modern Warehouses

in Key Hubs

Grade-B Office Repositioning

in tier 1 cities

Development of Modern

Warehouse in Key Hubs

Japan Urban Residential

Necessity retail

Short-term value-add &

Active Management

Development of Modern

Warehouse in Tokyo and Osaka

Other

Developed

Asia

Modern Warehouse in

Singapore and Hong

Kong

Value-add Singapore Retail

(non-discretionary/ transport

nodes)

Development of Modern

Warehouse in Seoul

Singapore CBD Office (upon

pricing adjustment)

Singapore Luxury Residential

(upon pricing adjustment)

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North America

Bad Timing: Canal Expanded

as Trade Slides

Fed on Hold: Lower forever?

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US: Signals Indicate Mature Real Estate Cycle 2 of 9 Indicators Now Signalling “Caution” and 1 in “Danger”

Source: LaSalle. Updated 1 July 2016.

Real Estate

Transaction Volume

CMBS Issuance

Levels

CMBS Spreads (AAA)

Yield Curve as

Recession Indicator

Leading Indicators

Recession Risk

Oversupply Risk

Caution and Danger Signals:

• Real Estate transaction volume continues to fall, and 3-month trailing average volume is down 23% y/y, into

“Danger” territory; overall volume is projected to fall from 2015’s record levels.

• CMBS Issuance increased in May, but the trailing year average is still in “Caution” territory.

• Debt/ Equity Imbalance is now in “Caution” thanks to the decrease in transaction volume and decreasing

CMBS levels.

• REIT Discount to NAV: REITs are now trading at a 1.5% discount to NAV on a three-month trailing average

basis.

Real Estate Yield vs.

Baa Bonds

REIT Price Index vs. 6

Month Average

Public REIT Vs.

Private Values (NAV)

SUPPLY / DEMAND

IMBALANCE 1

DEBT / EQUITY

IMBALANCE 2

PRICING

IMBALANCE 3

KEY: Headed in the right

direction; minimal concern.

POSITIVE Clear signal of potential

disruption or downturn

DANGER Consider reducing risk

CAUTION

+

- CHANGE

Signal adjustment since

last update

Assessment

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Source: Statistics Canada, LaSalle Investment Management At Q1 2016

Canada: Corporate Profit Growth Continues to Struggle Energy Sector the Key Contributor to Recent Declines

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

Q1

20

08

Q3

20

08

Q1

20

09

Q3

20

09

Q1

20

10

Q3

20

10

Q1

20

11

Q3

20

11

Q1

20

12

Q3

20

12

Q1

20

13

Q3

20

13

Q1

20

14

Q3

20

14

Q1

20

15

Q3

20

15

Q1

20

16

Y/Y

% c

hange

Quart

erly

Pro

fit

CA

D $

bln

s

Recession

Y/Y % Change [bars R]

Quarterly Profit [line L]

Corporate Operating Profits, Quarterly, SAAR, Q1/08 – Q1/16

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Major sector includes apartment, industrial, office, and retail property types. Niche property types include health care, self storage, lab space, manufactured homes and student

housing.

Source: Green Street Advisors. As of June 2016.

Niche Sectors Offer Better Growth, Less Volatility Also A Growing Share on US REIT Market Cap

Same-Store NOI Growth

Niche sector same-store NOI growth has beaten major sector averages consistently since 2007

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

An

nu

al N

OI G

row

th

Niche Sector Average Major Sector Average

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Source: CBRE-EA, LaSalle

Warehouse Availability vs. New Supply Low supply, low availability markets poised for rent growth

New York

Washington, DC

Los Angeles

Chicago

Boston

San Francisco

Seattle

Dallas

Houston

Denver

Atlanta

Riverside

San Diego

San Jose

Miami

Oakland

Phoenix

Orange County

Austin

Baltimore

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16%

Ne

w S

up

ply

% o

f S

tock '1

6-1

7 A

vg

Availability Rate 1Q16

Warehouse Availability vs. New Supply

Best Positioned

US Average

US Average

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Mid-Year 2016 Investment Recommendations – North America Focus on Long Term DTU Trends and Portfolio Insurance / Downside Protection

Best Opportunities

Core Core Plus/ Value-

Add Opportunistic

Secondary

Opportunities

Office

Mixed-use in “Next Tech”

Knowledge Markets (US/CA);

Markets with below trend rent

levels

Lease-up/renovation in

growth/tech markets

Suburbs at Deep

Discount (US)

Retail Service/Necessity Centers with

High LaSalle STARS Scores (US)

Center Densification (US);

High Street Repositioning

(CA)

Multi-Family Affluent, High Barrier Suburbs with Good Schools (US)

Apartment Development

(build to core) Urban Infill (CA) Class B Repositioning

Warehouse Infill in Major Markets (US); Major

Markets Except in Alberta (CA)

Hub Market Development US)

Small Bay Lease-Up (CA)

Niche Medical Office, Self Storage

Mezzanine

Construction Debt/

Preferred Equity (US)

50

Note: Investment ideas with no country designation apply to both the U.S. and Canada.

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Contacts For more information

Jacques Gordon

Global Strategist Chicago

+1 312 897 4200

[email protected]

Bill Maher

Head of North America Strategy Baltimore

+1 410 878 4822

[email protected]

Mahdi Mokrane

Head of European Strategy London

+44 207 852 4605

[email protected]

Robin Goodchild

International Director London

+44 207 852 4390

[email protected]

Rich Kleinman

Director, US Research & Strategy Chicago

+1 312 897 4025

[email protected]

Catherine Chen

National Director Hong Kong

+852 3182 5365

[email protected]

Simon Marx

Director London

+44 207 852 4492

[email protected]

Chris Langstaff

Senior Vice President Toronto

+1 (416) 304-6018

[email protected]

Manuel Zapata

National Director Mexico City

+ 52 55 5980 8090

[email protected]

Leigh Warner

National Director Australia Brisbane

+61 7-3002-4213

[email protected]

Yasuo Kono

Associate Director Tokyo

813 6880 2861

[email protected]

David Baskeyfield

National Director London

+44 207 852 4490

[email protected]

Zuhaib Butt

Associate Director London

+44 207 852 4066

[email protected]

Anne Koeman-Sharapova

Associate Director London

+44 207 852 4520

[email protected]

Macro deck team Daniel Mahoney

Vice President Chicago

+1 312 897 4023

[email protected]

Jack Hopper

Research Analyst Chicago

+1 312 897 4027

[email protected]

Chris Psaras

Alejandro Diaque

Irene Fosse

Elton Li

Aya Miyazaki

Mark Russo

Lucas Tan

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Real Estate Risks

Risks of investing in real estate include and are not limited to declines in real estate values, defaults by mortgagors or other borrowers and tenants, increases in property taxes and

operating expenses, overbuilding, fluctuations in rental income, changes in interest rates, possible lack of availability of mortgage funds or financing, extended vacancies of

properties, changes in tax and regulatory requirements (including zoning laws and environmental restrictions), losses due to costs resulting from the cleanup of environmental

problems, liability to third parties for damages resulting from environmental problems, and casualty or condemnation losses. In addition, the performance of the local economy in

each of the regions in which the real estate owned by a portfolio company is located affects occupancy, market rental rates and expenses and, consequently, has an impact on the

income from such properties and their underlying values. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in any market environment.

These targets are being shown for information purposes only and should not be relied upon to make predictions of actual future performances. The information supporting this

presentation has been obtained from third parties or is based upon sources believed to be reliable, but LaSalle does not assume any responsibility for, or make any representation or

warranty, express or implied as to the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of, any such information.

Important Notice

This information is intended to assist professional investors in deciding whether they wish to consider the real estate as an investment. This publication does not constitute an offer to

sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities or any interests in investment funds sponsored by, or the advisory services of, LaSalle Investment Management and is subject

to correction, completion and amendment without notice. Any such offer, if made, will only be made by means of a confidential prospectus. The prospectus will include information

regarding investment risk and investors should have the financial ability and willingness to accept these risks. All information obtained from third party sources is believed to be

reliable and current, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed and we do not undertake to update any information contained in this document. All assumptions, figures and calculations

contained in the information must be independently verified by the professional investor. This publication has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives,

financial situation or particular needs of recipients. No legal or tax advice is provided. Recipients should independently evaluate specific investments and trading strategies. By

accepting receipt of this publication, the recipient acknowledges that this publication is confidential and agrees not to distribute, offer or sell this publication or copies of it and agrees

not to make use of the publication other than for its own general information purposes.

Copyright © 2016 LaSalle Investment Management. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced by any means, whether graphically, electronically,

mechanically or otherwise howsoever, including without limitation photocopying and recording on magnetic tape, or included in any information store and/or retrieval system without

prior permission of LaSalle Investment Management.