Lake County Housing Needs Assessment - Colorado · 2018-07-18 · • Full service economic consulting firm • Denver, Oakland, Sacramento, Los Angeles • Expertise o Real estate

Oakland Denver Los Angeles Sacramento

Lake County Housing Needs Assessment | 1

Final Presentation

Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.

Lake County Housing Needs Assessment

July 2018

Denver Los Angeles Oakland Sacramento

Andrew Knudtsen, Managing PrincipalRachel Shindman, Associate



About EPS

Firm Description

• Full service economic consulting firm

• Denver, Oakland, Sacramento, Los

Angeles

• Expertise

o Real estate economics

o Economic development

o Public finance

o Fiscal and economic impact

analysis

o Affordable housing

▪ National practice

▪ Colorado mountain

community focus since 1990

Regional and Relevant Experience

Clients

• Chaffee County

• Summit County

• Eagle County

• Pitkin County

• Garfield County

• Clear Creek County

• Park County

• Custer County

• Fremont County

• Town of Vail

• City of Idaho Springs



Study Overview

Data Summary

Issues, Goals, and Action Plan

Questions

Photo: coloradoguy.com

Agenda



Study Overview

1. Market Demographics

• Population characteristics

• Employment and economy

2. Housing Conditions

3. Market Trends

• For-sale housing

• Rental housing

4. Affordability Indicators

5. Summary of Issues

• Key issues

• Housing goals

6. Identification of Goals

7. Delineation of Actions

• Policy

• Organizations

• Assets




Study Goals and Objectives

Community-wide understanding of the need

Multi-faceted approach to the problem and solution

Action plan that enables the community to align resources and direct them into achievable solutions



Key Questions

What are the housing needs facing Leadville and Lake County? Who is affected?

What resources are available to address housing issues, and how do they match identified needs?

What goals are realistic and attainable, and how can they be achieved?



Data Analysis

First Community Meeting

Targeted Follow Up Research

Second Community Meeting

Resource and Strategy Evaluation

Goals and Actions

Project Process



DEMOGRAPHIC CONTEXT



Population Growth

Population (Lake County, 2017) | 7,900

Households (Lake County, 2017) | 3,200

The region’s population decreased from 2000 to 2010 Mostly due to people moving out

Since 2010, trends shifted and the area has recently recovered to 2000 population levels

From 2010 to 2017 Lake County grew by an average of

80 new residents per year

0.6%

1.1%

Leadville

Lake County

Annual Population Growth | 2010-2017



Population Growth

The most growth since 2000 has been in residents aged 60 to 74

Over this time, there has also been a decline in residents aged 34 and younger

16% 15%

27%

32%

8%

2%

13% 14%

21%

34%

14%

4%

0 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 34 35 to 59 60 to 74 75 and Over

2000 2016

An Aging Population| 2000-2016



Income

$Household Income

Median household income in Lake County is approximately $47,00028% lower than Colorado statewide

Almost 30% of households in Lake County earn less than $25,000 per year

12%

15%

9%

19%20%

11% 11%

2% 1%



Income

$Income by Source

63% of income comes from employment – down from 72% in 2001

18% of income now comes from Transfer Receipts – up from 11% in 2001

63%

19%

18%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Employment Income Dividends, Interest, and Rent Transfer Receipts

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Economic & Planning Systems



EMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMIC TRENDS



Employment

Total Employment (Lake County) | 3,500

Total Employed Residents (Lake County) | 4,000

Largest Employment Sectors

Education and Health Services,

Leisure and Hospitality, Natural

Resources and Mining, and

Government

$Wages

The average wage in Lake

County is $35,000

Proprietors

30% of employment in

Lake County is Proprietors (business owners)

22%

18%

17%

14%

Education and Health Services

Leisure and Hospitality

Natural Resources and Mining

Government

Source: Colorado Department of Labor; Economic & Planning Systems



Commuting

Employed in Lake County, Live Outside

Employed and Live in Lake County

Live in Lake County, Employed Outside

Commuting Patterns

75% of residents commute out of

the County for work

Most employees commuting in to Lake County come from Chaffee County

Most Lake County residents commuting out are going to Summit County and Eagle County



Economic Recovery and Growth

Compared to neighboring counties, Lake County experienced a slower and less drastic, but more prolonged decrease in employment

Lake County saw economic recovery beginning in 2014

Total Employment| Indexed to 2006

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Employment Index Lake County Summit County Eagle County Colorado

Source: BLS; Economic & Planning Systems



Challenges to Growth

Employers have indicated that housing challenges affect recruitment

Newly hired employees have turned down jobsbecause of challenges finding local housing

Employment Vacancies| February – June 2018

Interviews with large and small

employers indicate over 100 vacant

positions in Lake County

This represents 3% vacancy in local

employment – a significant piece of

the local economy

When appropriate and affordable housing is not available, local economic growth is “capped” based on the housing inventory



HOUSING INVENTORY



Housing Composition

Total Housing Units (2017) | 4,470Vacancy Rate (2017) | 29% 72% of housing in the

County is Single Family Detached homes

A large percentage is also mobile homes

72%

5%

8%

16%

1 Unit (Detached)

1 Unit (Attached) to 4 Units

5 Units or More

Mobile Home

Units in Structure




Housing Age

38

588

252341373399333

192271

80

54

9213883211

16

1,062

2010-20132000-20091990-19991980-19891970-19791960-19691950-19591940-19491939 orEarlier

Leadville Lake County

Leadville has a much older housing stock than the County overall, with 61% of units built before 1940, and only 13% built since 1980

Housing by Year Built



Owners and Renters

Leadville has a higher proportion of renters than Lake County, with 44% of housing units in the City being rented

Lake County Leadville

Of the 3,200 occupied housing

units in the County:

63% are owner-occupied

37% are rented

Of the 1,300 occupied housing

units in the City:

56% are owner-occupied

44% are rented



New Development

Building Permits Planned Development

Since 2011, there have been 140 building permits for single family homes

and 17 permits for mobile homes

An average of 22 new units/year

There are several developments

in or planned for the approval

process, which could add up to

650 new units.



Second Homes

Many homes in Lake County are “second homes” – homes owned by someone with a permanent address outside of the County and not occupied year-round

Vacancy Owner Location

Overall housing vacancy in Lake

County is 29% - an increase

from 24% in 2000

Most of these are likely second

homes

28% of properties in Lake

County are registered to

addresses with a different

city from the home location



Local Purchasers

On average, 48% of home sales are to non-local buyers

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Local Buyer Out of Town Buyer

Source: Lake County Assessor; Economic & Planning Systems



MARKET TRENDS



Home Sales

There has been a dramatic shift in the housing market since 2014-2015

56

34

4541

59 59

74

90

133

148

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Number of Sales Average Sales Price



Home Sales

The average sales price in the first 2 months of 2018 was $311,271

There were only 15 active listings in the County at the time of analysis

2008 – 2014 2015 – Feb. 2018

Total Sales 368 378

Average Sales Price $173,700 $238,500

Annual Average Sales Price Increase

Dollars - $5,016 $30,370

Percent - 2.6% 12.2%



Rental Vacancy

Data on rentals needs to be gathered from a variety of sources

Total Units Vacant Vacancy Percent

Eagles Nest 162 1 0.6%

Tabor Grand 37 1 2.7%

Dispersed Rentals 66 1 1.5%

Total 265 3 1.1%

Based on interviews with property managers in June and July 2018



Rental Rates

Data on rentals comes from a variety of sources

# of Units Average Rent

Studio 6 $672

1 Bedroom 40 $881

2 Bedroom 154 $1,043

3 Bedroom 63 $1,249

Based on interviews with property managers in June and July 2018 and listings from Craigslist and the Leadville Herald over 3 months in 2017-18



HOUSING AFFORDABILITY



Affordability Indicators

$Household income reflects all earnings for all members of the household

Income

Housing is “affordable” when a household spends no more than 30% of income on housing costs

Total Household

Income

Avg. Income for 1.5 Earner HH

Avg. Income for 2.0 Earner HH

Annual Hourly Annual Hourly

30% AMI $14,100 $9,400 $4.52 $7,050 $3.39

60% AMI $28,200 $18,800 $9.04 $14,100 $6.78

80% AMI $37,600 $25,067 $12.05 $18,800 $9.04

100% AMI $47,000 $31,333 $15.06 $23,500 $11.30

120% AMI $56,400 $37,600 $18.08 $28,200 $13.56



Ownership Affordability Indicators

$

A household earning the median income of

$47,000 can afford a $194,000 home

Home Ownership


Household Income

Max. Affordable Purchase Price

% Affordable 2017 Sales

30% AMI $14,100 $32,500 0%

60% AMI $28,200 $103,600 4%

80% AMI $37,600 $148,800 5%

100% AMI $47,000 $194,000 19%

120% AMI $56,400 $241,500 19%




$

A household earning the median income

of $47,000 can afford a $194,000 home

Home Ownership


36

1832 33 38 44 50 47

65

42

20

16

13 8

21 15

2443

68105

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Affordable up to 100% AMI Affordable to over 100% AMI





38% sales in 2017 were affordable to

households earning 80 – 120% AMI

14 920 24 27

34 32 28 32

14

22

9

12 911

10 1819

33

28

7

7

8 2

128

6 13

17

2813

9

56

9 7

18

30

51 77

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Less than 80% AMI 80 - 100% AMI 100 - 120% AMI Over 120% AMI



Rental Affordability Indicators


$A household earning the median income of

$47,000 can afford $1,175 in monthly rent

Rental Housing

Household Income

Max. Affordable Rent

% Inventoried Units

30% AMI $14,100 $353 0%

60% AMI $28,200 $705 8%

80% AMI $37,600 $940 18%

100% AMI $47,000 $1,175 52%

120% AMI $56,400 $1,410 19%



Rental Affordability Indicators

$A household earning the median income of $47,000 can afford $1,175 in

monthly rent

Rental Housing


Average Rent Required Income

AMI Affordability

Studio $672 $26,880 57%

1 Bedroom $881 $35,240 75%

2 Bedroom $1,043 $41,720 89%

3 Bedroom $1,249 $49,960 106%



ISSUES AND GOALS



Housing Issues

#1: Inadequate Housing Supply

#2: Challenges Facing New Housing Development

#3: Location and Regional Context of Lake County

#4: Continuing Pressure on Pricing

#5: Links to Employment and Economic Development



Goals



Housing Goals

#1: Define affordability and the mechanisms for policies and programs

#2: Commit sites and establish process to build new affordable inventory

#3: Identify options for funding resources and establish process to adopt them

#4: Adopt new policies and regulations that

address long term needs

#5: Find effective partners and establish logistical framework for

action

#6: Identify local needs and continue to press for

regional solutions



RECOMMENDATIONS AND ACTION PLAN



Action Plan Overview

#4 Policy Initiatives

#5 Organization and

Management

#3 Funding Sources

#6 Regional Partnerships

#2 Land Strategy

#1 Affordability Definitions and Framework



Definitions and Framework for Policies

Next Steps

• Formalize the

attributes of an

affordable housing

program, developed

as part of this process

• Establish framework

for future policies,

regulation, and

occupancy of future

development

Adopt standards for affordability and establish terminology for all future projects, programs, and policies.

What it can achieve:

Clarity for all parties – including

governing entities, developers,

future residents.

Consistency, which will lead to

credibility.

Why it works for Lake County:

The City and County are poised for

action, both for development and policy

adoption.



Land Strategy

Next Steps

• Formalize the

prioritization of

available public land

for housing

development

• Prioritize other

actions, such as the

issuance of an RFP, for

the identified site(s)

Define a strategy to utilize publicly

held land for rental and ownership

affordable housing developments


Remove land from development costs,

reduce overall cost of housing, and

bring new affordable units to

the community


The City and County have available

surplus land that is suitable for housing

development



Policy Initiatives

Next Steps

• Establish hierarchy for

the policy options

identified

• Move forward with

one or two, such as

Short Term Rental

Policy, Inclusionary

Zoning, or Impact

Fees

Pass targeted policy initiatives to

address key housing issues


Increased inventory of

affordable housing and/or greater

financial resources to develop

County and City sponsored projects.


Development pressure will only increase

over time. Policies will enable the

community to keep pace with the

anticipated growth.



Organization and Management

Next Steps

• Formalize discussions

with the Chaffee Housing

Trust to include Lake

County

• Address needs for

staffing based in

Leadville

• Formalize work program

- staff responsibilities

related to projects,

policies, and agency

organization

Partner with the Chaffee Housing

Trust to govern and manage housing

activities


Dedicated organization can

lead the housing initiatives; land trust

model can own land, manage

development, qualify owners/renters,

and manage affordability covenants


Availability and willingness of the

Chaffee Housing Trust to be a partner is

a significant opportunity.



Funding Sources

Next Steps

• Establish working

group to review

potential programs,

targeting use tax and

impact fees

• Define reasonable

targets for each, with

corresponding time

lines for adoption (for

fees) and election (for

use tax)

Dedicate a local funding source for

housing activities


Consistent and sufficient

funding is necessary to support

housing initiatives


Revenue is needed to close gaps on

future projects as well as manage the

program.



Regional Partnerships

Next Steps

• Continue to elevate

the needs of Lake

County in the region

• Quantify ways Lake

County serves the

multi-county region

and needs related to

commuting

employees - such as

health care, day care,

and social services

Identify regional partnerships to

address issues related to housing,

including transportation and child care


Regional partnerships can focus on

community services, including

transportation, recreation, and child care


Lake County is deeply integrated with its

surrounding communities and their

economies, and there is an opportunity

for those communities to contribute to

the needs created in Lake County from

that integration



Final Thoughts

Issues are pressing, but resources are available to begin addressing them

Cooperation and coordination will be key to success

Local energy and motivation to take action is a key asset



QUESTIONS

Documents

Lake County Housing Needs Assessment - Colorado · 2018-07-18 · • Full service economic consulting firm • Denver, Oakland, Sacramento, Los Angeles • Expertise o Real estate