Knowledge base for Forward-Looking Information and

Assessment (FLIS)Development of a platform to support long-term

decision making

Introduction and overview of FLIS: The need to look ahead

“The world we have made, as a result of thinking we have done thus far, creates problems we can not solve at the same level of thinking at which we created them.” (Einstein)

“For future success in almost any area, we have to incorporate future effects into our current decision policy making.” (Commissioner Potočnik)

New thinking

Preparedness

Introduction and overview of FLIS:What forward-looking assessments

provideForward-looking assessment can:• Frame policies by identifying priority, warning signals

and emerging issues• reflecting on different options for the future• identify driving forces and uncertainties• Check whether and how targets can be met, their

relevance• Develop robust measures and precautionary actions• Analyse cause-effect relationships• Anticipate possible surprises, discontinuities, shocks• Facilitate short and long-term

thinking in a structured way

Introduction and overview of FLIS:Future thinking process to support long-term

perspectives in decision making

Information about the future itself

Practice of studying the future

Introduction and overview of FLIS: Relationship to system neighbours

Introduction and overview of FLIS: SEIS principles in FLIS

• Information should be readily accessible for end users and public authorities at all levels to enable them to assess SoE, effectiveness of policies and design new policies in a timely manner

• Information should be collected once and shared with others for many purposes

• Managed as close to source as possible

• Enable comparisons at appropriate geographical scale

• Information should be supported through common, free, open source standards and if possible software tools

Introduction and overview of FLIS: FLIS Management

Currently • FLIS is managed by the EEA

– Information collection via contractors– Content management systems

• Forward loking indicators – IMS• Models – Model Inventry• Scenarios – Inventory with AoA tools or SENSE system• Enwirowindows

In the future– Gradual move to decentralised sytem with

countries & relevant organisations

Introduction and overview of FLIS: Summary of the state of development of FLIS

componentsLarge amount of analysis on global drivers and megatrends completed, European partlyIntegration report and factsheets – pendingInformation to be structured and added to online FLIS 2010 / early 2011 with associated indicators

Inventory and evaluation of forward-looking indicators completeOutlook indicators included in IMSIMS to be updated / supplemented as new indicators are available

Inventories of models completed (models and participative models)Model factsheets included in online inventory of modelsInventory to be updated / added to by experts

Catalogue of scenarios completed (pending publication)Scenario factsheets (from catalogue) to be entered into online inventory of scenariosInventory to be updated / added to by experts

EEA glossary and environmental thesaurus (GEMET) in place

Online inventory of methods together with definition of terms to be developed (2010 – 2011)

Consideration being given to development of guidelines for appropriate selection and use of methods

Numerous EIONET events and meetings completed and planned, OSCE, ENVSEC plannedSpecific FLIS capacity building to be developedBLOSSOM project to report – late 2010 / early 2011

Thank you!

Methods and tools

Aim

The aim of the methods and tools component is to present descriptions of available methods and tools, as well as guidance on their use in forward-looking environmental assessments.

Current activities

• Inventory of models• Scenario building approaches used in regional

and countries exercises• Building new explorative scenarios on the bases of

stakholder praticipation• Downscaling existing global scenarios to country level• Windtunelling of existing strategies through scenarios

• Glossary – GEMET and specific glossary linked to scenarios

work (draft)

• While other components of FLIS provide structured information about the future itself, this component is dedicated to practical methods and tools of studying the future

Methods and tools:Definition

Methods and tools:EEA approach

EEA approach• literature review• scenario development• horizon scanning• exploration• drivers’ analysis• megatrends analysis• modelling

Foresight methods diamond

R. Popper, 2008

Methods and tools:SWOT analysis

Strengths•Unique resource – bring together large amount of existing information and research•High level of support•Value-added applications in decision making, strategic planning and policy•Presentation of methods & tools in wider context

Weaknesses•Inclusion could be interpreted as endorsement of quality•Not possible to cover all themes and issues

Opportunities•Overview of trends and patterns in forward-looking approaches•Potential to create “building blocks” for developing forward-looking approaches

Threats•Very dynamic field – hard to keep up-to-date•Relies on active engagement•Guidelines are needed, but costly to develop

Methods and tools:Further information

EEA EnviroWindows - methods http://scenarios.ew.eea.europa.eu/fol939663

GEMET - GEneral Multilingual Environmental Thesaurus

http://www.eionet.europa.eu/gemet/

EEA glossary http://glossary.eea.europa.eu/

Networking, capacity building and governance

Networking, capacity, governance:

EIONET

EIONET partnership:

•EEA

•European Topic Centres (ETCs)

•National Focal Points (NFPs)

•National Reference Centres (NRCs)

•NRC-FLIS

Structure demonstrating how NFPs, NRCs and ETCs interact with EEA

Networking, capacity, governance:

Networking and building capacity1. Scenario-building workshops in countries

– Slovenia, Turkey, Austria

– Network of heads of EU EPAs

2. Cooperation with other institutions:– UNEP/GEO-4 (update of global, developing regional component)

– ASEF (3 times, pre-conference mind opener)

– ENVSEC (Eastern Europe, Central Asia forthcoming)

– OSCE ( 6 scenario-buidling workshops forthcoming: EE, CA, WB, Med, Arctic, global)

For awerness raising, capacity building, enhancing stakholders participation, regional recomendations, mind opener

• Downscaling existing global scenarios to country level• Windtunelling existing strategies through scenarios• Building new scenarios

• Awareness raising, enhancing stakeholder participation and capacity building:– Countries workshops, regional workshops in cooperation with

ENVSEC, EPA network

• Mind opener – before or during conferences– 3 ASEF conferences (scenario building exercises), Bridging the

Gap conference 2009 (future cafes)

• Developing regional recommendations for countries policy makers (ENVSEC, OSCE)

Networking, capacity, governance:

Aims of scenarios exercises with partners

• “Governance” means rules, processes and behaviour that affect the way in which powers are exercised at European level, particularly as regards openness, participation, accountability, effectiveness and coherence (EC White paper on governance)

Networking, capacity, governance:Governance

• BLOSSOM project – building understanding of institutional arrangements for and governance of forward-looking information in environmental policy

Bridging LOng-term Scenarios and Strategy analyses – Organisation and Methods

Networking, capacity, governance:

Governance – BLOSSOM

• 1st phase: literature review and workshops: potential of sceanrio planning to inform policy making is often under-exploited

• 2nd phase: role, relevance, practical experience with institutional arrangements in ocuntries (28 interviews, FI, F, NL, PL, SI, S, SE, UK), in 2010 4 countries added: AU, DE, H, P

• Country Case studies: governance and administrative context,processes, major studies

• Crosscutting report: commonalities, lessons learnt (institutions, mechanisms, processes)

Networking, capacity, governance:Governance

Errors / uncertainties in

science underpinning

futures

Focus on method

alienates potential users

Futures perceived as weak basis for decision

making (uncertainty)

STRENGTHS

OPPORTUNITIES THREATS

WEAKNESSES

Tradition of long-term planning

Analysis of future sectoral trends needs

strengthening’

Compartmentalisation of departmental

activitiesKnowledge brokerage for embedding long

term futures studies into policy

Futures research

EnvironmentalPolicy

Futures thinking embedded in institutional

thinking

Institutional arrangements facilitate long-term policies

Extensive links between decision makers & those

conducting futures studies

Evaluative research,

futures studies & policy

making go hand in hand

Active inclusion of

broad range of stakeholders

Advanced development of

futures methodologies

Impacts of futures studies enhanced by

links between agencies

Government departments to be re-structured by theme

rather than sector

BLOSSOM SWOT-tail diagram: Netherlands

• FLIS will draw on BLOSSOM project:– to inform and support existing and new

activities to improve institutional set-up and governance

– to encourage information and good-practice exchange

Networking, capacity, governance:Governance

Networking, capacity, governance:

Further information

EIONET website http://eionet.europa.eu/

EIONET NRC-FLIS http://forum.eionet.europa.eu/nrc-flis/

BLOSSOM report Forthcoming 2011

EnviroWindows links to Institutions, Organisations and Networks

http://scenarios.ew.eea.europa.eu/links/other/organisations

Use of forward looking information

• Forward-looking information is increasingly accepted and used:

1. In broad policy oriented forward-looking assessments

2. To support strategic planning and decision making

3. In education, information, science and research

Use of forward-looking information

• Pan European Environment: Glimpses into an uncertain future (2007)

• Environmental trends and perspectives in the WesternBalkans: future production and consumption patterns (2010)

• Contributions to EEA major reports: Pan European report 2007 (Belgrade), SOER 2010:

– Part A: explorative LT (2050) analyses of global megatrends

– Part B: thematic assessments (outlook 2020)

– Part C: country profiles (include Forward-looking component)

Use of forward-looking info:

Assessments

Use of forward-looking info:

Assessments – exampleEnvironmental trends and perspectives in the Western Balkans: future production and consumption patternFramework of analyses

Assessment of assessments approach

• Two purposes of forward-looking information in relation to policy:– Agenda setting – the identification of issues

for policy attention and exploration of uncertainties.

– Policy development – including long-term (regulatory) impact assessment of policies.

Use of forward-looking info:

Planning and decision-making

• Education – use in class-rooms and by students, as well as educating policy makers

• Information – raising awareness and presenting complex issues clearly

• Science and research – setting research agendas and priorities

Use of forward-looking info:

Education, information, science

Thank you!