Knowledge base for Forward-Looking Information and

Assessment (FLIS)Development of a platform to support long-term

decision making

Indicators and models

AimAim is to complement the available outlook perspectives of the EEA

indicators, streamline links with data at the country level and present European outlooks in the global context.

Further, the aim is to facilitate the routine inclusion of future perspectives in regular environment reporting activities, and to help information systems capture data on future perspectives and emerging issues.

The primary aim of the Model inventory is to provide an information source about modelling tools used to produce forward-looking indicators and analyses. The online model inventory is intended to establish an information portal to facilitate interactions between the providers of modelling tools and the users of models and their results.

Current activitiesCurrent EEA/FLIS work • Currently, 44 forward-looking indicators are published on the EEA scenario-

website and managed by the EEA Indicator Management Service (IMS) for Outlooks. They address 9 topics, from socio-economics to biodiversity.

• Models are key tool for developing forward-looking indicators. Currently, the online model inventory is a key product to support . It is intended to have two main uses:

– To provide an information source about modelling tools to produce forward-looking indicators and analyses

– To establish an information portal to facilitate interactions between the providers of modelling tools and the users of models and their results.

Main outputs: • Catalogue of forward-looking indicators (EEA Technical report)Forward-

looking indicators published on the EEA Scenarios web site• Use of forward-looking indicators in Part B of SOER 2010• Evaluation of forward-looking indicators - methodology and evaluation of 44

indicators (internal report)• On-line model inventory on the web

Forward-looking indicators:• present quantitative information on issues or

aspects of the environment• are estimates of future developments usually

based on available data, past trends and/or models

Forward-looking indicators: Definition

Forward-looking indicators can be used to:• Discuss possible short-medium term policy options• Inform distance to target analyses• Identify possible impacts under defined conditions and

policy frameworks• Help to improve the consistency of assessments related to

the past, present and future• Facilitate the routine inclusion of future perspectives in

regular environment reporting activities and systems• Help existing information systems capture data on future

perspectives and emerging issues

Forward-looking indicators: Use

EEA, latest update 2008Software: IMS outlooksOutlook indicators in the Indicator management

service (IMS)– A review of forward-looking indicators identified those relevant

for EEA environmental assessments, primarily linked to EEA CSI– Relevant indicators entered in the IMS – as outlook indicators– In IMS users can select indicators relevant to themes (energy,

air pollution)– Allows indicators for past, present and forward-looking

information to be comparedhttp://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators

Forward-looking indicators: Management

Example – energy

Forward-looking indicators: Linking CSI

with outlooks

EEA Core Set of Indicators (CSI) on energy: 5 indicators

Outlook indicators for energy: 10 indicators

Final energy consumption by sector (CSI27)

•Final energy consumption – outlook from EEA (outlook 48)•Final energy consumption – outlook from IEA (outlook 11)

Total primary energy intensity (CSI28) •Total energy intensity – outlook from EEA (outlook 49)

Primary energy consumption by fuel (CSI29)

•Total energy consumption – outlook from IEA (outlook 30)•Total energy consumption – outlook from EEA (outlook 50)•Total electricity consumption – outlook from EEA (outlook 51)•Total electricity consumption – outlook from IEA (outlook 28)

Renewable primary energy consumption (CSI30)

•Renewable energy consumption – outlook from EEA (outlook 52)•Renewable energy consumption – outlook from IEA (outlook 39)

Renewable electricity consumption (CSI31)

•Renewable electricity – outlook from EEA (outlook 53)

Forward-looking indicators: Example from

W. BalkansEmissions of acidifying substances in the Western Balkans, 1993 – 2003:

Projected change in emissions of acidifying substances in the Western Balkans, 2000–2020:

Temporal coverage: 1993 – 2003 Spatial coverage:

Temporal coverage: 2000 – 2020 Spatial coverage:

[Source: EEA (2010) Environmental trends and perspectives in the Western Balkans: future production and consumption patterns]

Evaluation of indicators: criteria

1. Does the indicator monitor progress towards quantified targets? Does the indicator measure progress toward reference value or qualitative target?

7. Is the indicator clear, transparent and easy to understand?

2. Does the indicator monitor progress towards quantified targets? Does the indicator measure progress toward reference value or qualitative target?

8. Is the indicator conceptually and methodologically described and well founded?

3. Is the indicator based on readily available and routinely available data?

9. Is scenario analysis available for that indicator?

4. Is the indicator consistent in spatial coverage and covering most of EEA and collaborating and neighbourhood countries?

10. Is the indicator timely (i.e. can it be produced in reasonable and “useful” time)?

5. Does the indicator present data at the appropriate temporal coverage and sufficiently detailed time trends?

11. Is the indicator well documented and of known quality? (i.e. Is the indicator used by other international organizations)?

6. Is the indicator presented at the appropriate geographical resolution (EEA country groupings) or can be disaggregated to the national level?

12. Does an institutional agreement exist between EEA and indicator producer to produce forward- looking indicators?

Evaluation of indicators: results

Evaluation of indicators: results

Comparison AGRI-F01/ AGRI-F02

Forward-looking indicators: SWOT analysis

Strengths•Scrutiny of underlying models•Can help to communicate clearly•High number of indicators with policy relevance•Regulator updates possible via IMS

Weaknesses•Difficulty communicating assumptions and uncertainties•Capture of non-numerical information•Not available for all themes or spatial scales•Problems with compatibility•Only as strong as models used

Opportunities•Development of new or improved indicators•Linkage to policy targets•Greater use in policy development and decision-making

Threats•Indicator availability could drive policy decisions•Lack of institutional arrangements for regular updates

• Update/ expand?

• Provide guidelines for selection?

• Improve management?

• Establish of cooperation with countries and institutions for updata and management and use of the indicators?

Forward-looking indicators: Future

developments?

Forward-looking indicators: Further

informationEEA website – environmental scenarios/indicators

http://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/scenarios/indicators

Indicator Management Service (IMS) http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators

Catalogue of forward-looking indicators from selected sources

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/technical_report_2008_8

Overview of available outlook indicators for South Eastern Europe (SEE) and Eastern European, Caucasus and Central Asian countries (EECCA)

http://root.ew.eea.europa.eu/scenarios/fol048557/detailed_outlooks_for_EW.doc

Models• Are often mathematical representations or

computer simulations that attempt to describe the characteristics or relationships of physical events or socio-economic developments

[Source: EEA Technical Report no. 11/2008]

Note: models also provide input to scenarios, drivers and trend analyses etc. – as well as developing indicators

Models:Definition

• Can simulate environmental change, e.g. at global, European and other scales

• Provide the data to develop and support forward-looking indicators

• Can be developed and used as education and awareness-raising tools

• Participatory models can be use in policy making for negotiation processes

Models:Use

• Provides an information source about modelling tools that can be used to underpin current and future state of the environment assessments in Europe

• Establishes an information portal to facilitate interactions between the providers of modelling tools and the users of models and their results

• Plays a role in fostering exchanges between research communities to improve existing or develop new modelling tools that can support forward-looking environmental assessments

Models:FLIS online inventory

Models:FLIS online inventory

Thematic focus IMS category

Agriculture Agriculture

Air quality Air pollution

Biodiversity Biodiversity

Climate Climate change

Energy Energy

Land use Terrestrial

Forest Terrestrial

Transport Transport

Waste and material flows Waste

Water Water

Demography (Socio-economic)

Economy (Socio-economic)

Tourism (Socio-economic)

Integrated (Socio-economic)

Thematic focus of models in FLIS and corresponding IMS categories

Example – Energy

Models:What is available?

Models related to energy – 9 models

Models providing projections on energy development in future

WEM – IEA's

World Energy Model Prometheus

Models related to energy sector impacts on the environment

ECO2-Regio / ECO2-Privat

RAINS-Europe (GAINS)

Regional Air pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS)

EcoSense

Other models

V GAS (Virtu@alis)

International Futures

Models:SWOT analysis

Strengths•Provide a quantitative base for forward-looking assessments•Can be combined with participative approaches•Multiple models can be used

Weaknesses•Can become rapidly outdated•Only as strong as the underlying methods and assumptions•Significant gaps in thematic areas•Consistency, comparability difficult when using multiple models

Opportunities•Awareness of models can be higher•Opportunities to facilitate their use•Exchanges between research groups can improve models•Model ‘suites’•Promote acceptance of pan-European models

Threats•Systematic evaluation of models is lacking•Are imperfect representations but can appear authoritative

Models:Example inventory

contentRegional Air pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS) model

Short summary of model

The RAINS model provides a tool for analysis of reduction strategies for air pollutants. The model combines information on economic and energy development, emission control potentials and costs, atmospheric dispersion characteristics and environmental sensitivities towards air pollution. The model addresses threats to human health posed by fine particulates and ground-level ozone as well as risk of ecosystems damage from air pollutants.

Model dimensions

Thematic coverage AirEnergyTransport Agriculture

Input (key drivers) Economic developmentSectoral activity (for agriculture, transport, energy, fuels etc.)

Outputs (key indicators) Emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOX), ammonia (NH3), non-methane — volatile organic compounds (NMVOC), particulate matter (PM)Air pollution effect of energy consumption, transport and agricultureHealth impact and acidification

Geographical coverage Coverage: almost all European countries, incl. the European part of RussiaNational versions available for Italy and the Netherlands (also RAINS versions for other — regions, e.g. Asia, available)Resolution: country-level (can be linked with finer resolution dispersion models)

Regional Air pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS) model

Models:Further information

EEA Online Inventory of Models http://scenarios.ew.eea.europa.eu/fol079729/online-model-inventory

Modelling tools for the 2010 State of the Environment and Outlook Report – model inventory and participative model inventory

Various

Modelling environmental change in Europe: towards a model inventory

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/technical_report_2008_11/

Thank you!