Traditions of Forward Looking and Global Megatrends in Russia and the ‘Rest of the World’ FLIS Workshop Euroepan Environment Agency, 13 November 2013 Gilbert

Traditions of Forward Looking and Global Megatrends

in Russia and the ‘Rest of the World’

FLIS WorkshopEuroepan Environment Agency, 13 November 2013

Gilbert Ahamer, Environment Agency Austria

What will we see here?

Contemplate theoretical “clarities” along your pathsWorld systems theory

Dependency theory

Growth theory

Narrative history

Neo-classical economics Keynesian economics Political economics

Critical geography

Quantitative revolution

Possibilism

Environm. determinism

Global Studies train: “When do I use which theory?”

VIEWS FROM SOCIAL, ECONOMIC AND CULTURAL GEOGRAPHIES

1.Gilbert AhamerGlobal Studies 4

The “magnetic field” of our globalisation discourse

Modernisation theory

The concept of modernisation tries to replace earlier concepts such as “development” (in case of negative sign: underdevelopment, backwardness) or progress by a value-free term but is never-theless still tacitly used connected with an emphasis on values and teleological orientation.

Gilbert AhamerGlobal Studies 5

Dependency theory

Reason for underdevelopment of countries

would not be internal but external factors such as especially colonialism. By executing power the developed countries would

succeed in keeping the less developed countries in an ongoing state of poverty.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modernization_theory

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dependency_theory

“Why are some rich and some poor?” Classical “growth theory” tries to understand causes of economic growth,

it sees economic growth constituted by “production factors” such as Capital / investment Soil / land Labour / workforce Technology Education Human resources

… and cautiously extends out to cultural and political parameters …

… and strongly believes in correlations of points …?


?

See Paul Rosling’s (optimistic) view of development at gapminder, flixxy or youtube

Are economies converging or diverging over the course of time?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_theory

http://www.gapminder.org/

http://www.flixxy.com/200-countries-200-years-4-minutes.htm

(Hypothesised) timelines of economy Nikolai D. Kondratieff’s long waves (Николай Дмитриевич Кондратьев, 1892-1938)

figure from Knox & Agnew 1997)


“time geography”

Synopsis of two cyclic theories 1 Kondratieff cycle = 2 Kuznets cycles (figure from Knox & Agnew 1997) The inverse U-shaped Kuznets curve:

mathematically, it produces oscillations Compare S.’s “precognitive understandings” in history: Oswald Spängler etc.

Gilbert AhamerGilbert AhamerGlobal Studies 8

“Big History”


“Big History”


“Big History”


“Big History”


“Big History”


“Big History”


“Big History”


“Big History”


“Big History”


“Big History”



Main types of view of a global future• Global Studies

is a multi-paradigmatic science!

LONG-TERM TRENDS IN SOCIO-ECONOMIC

AND CIVILISATIONAL DEVELOPMENT



Representing dynamics globally: data • Materials and methods in

this step:• The “Global Change Data

Base” (GCDB, © G. Ahamer) =• Global data sets for

– population– land use– economy– energy

T H E S O C I O - E C O N O M I C D A T A B A S E f o r t h e H I G H - R E S O L U T I O N B I O S P H E R E M O D E L H R B M ( 1 9 9 4 ) , G r a z - A u s t r i aD a t a e x t r a c t e d f r o m : A G R O S T A T / P C , V e r s i o n 2 . 0 , F A O , R o m e , 1 9 9 3

C e r e a l s - P r o d u c t i o n I n d e x1 9 7 9 - 8 1 = 1 0 0

C o m m e n t :

W o r l d t o t a l 1 9 7 1 :

W o r l d t o t a l 1 9 9 1 :B a h a m a s

B e lize

C a n a d a

C o sta R ic a

C u b a

D o m in ic a n R e p .

E l S a lv a d o r

G re e n la n d

G u a te m a la

H a iti

H o n d u ra s

Ja m a ic a

M e xic o

N ic a ra g u a

P a n a m a

U S A + A la sk a

A rg e n tin a

B o liv ia

B ra zil

C h ile

C o lo m b ia

E c u a d o r

8 1 , 6 61 2 1 , 6 7

D a t a f o r w o r l d r e g i o n s

2 0

4 0

6 0

8 0

1 0 0

1 2 0

1 4 0

1 6 0

1 9 6 0 1 9 6 5 1 9 7 0 1 9 7 5 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0

S o v i e t U n i o n

A f r i c a

A s i a

E u r o p e

N + C A m e r i c a

O c e a n i a

S o u t h A m e r i c a

W o r l d

2 6 7W o r l d : l i n e a r t r e n d f o r 2 0 5 0 :

W o r l d : a v e r a g e a n n . c h a n g e : 2 , 8 3 %

A f r i c aA s i aE u r o p eN + C A m e r i c aO c e a n i aS o u t h A m e r i c a

2 4 7 3 0 5 2 5 7 2 1 7 2 5 3 2 6 6 2 1 9S o v i e t U n i o n

R e g i o n s : l i n e a r t r e n d 2 0 5 0 :

Transformation of co-ordinates

Instead of plotting reality as a function of time We decide to plot reality as a function of GDP/cap … in order to better perceive structural changes and

patterns of global dynamic change

= real time:

complex graphic structure

evolutionary time of development:

simpler graphical structuretime t GDP/cap


Evolving pattern in economic structures… inspired by evolving patterns in energy structures (Marchetti & Nakicenovic at IIASA):


1 direction of civilisatoric evolution

3 m

anuf

actu

ring

100

100 1000 10000

[% GDP]

10

1

0.1

10

1 agr

icul

ture

2 m

inin

g

4 el

ectri

city

, gas

, wate

r

5 co

nstru

ctio

n

6 tr

ade

7 tr

ansp

ort &

com

mun

icat

ion

8 fin

ance

& i

nsur

ance

9 c

omm

unity

&so

cial

ser

vic

es

relative importance at the moment

[$/ cap]

= what increases strongly: electricity & gas communication financial institutions medical services

= what increases:

metal products & machinery water works construction wholesale & retail trade insurance real estate & business serv. dwellings medical services social & related services recreational & cultural serv. personal & household serv..

= what at least does not decrease:

paper & print chemicals

Growth rates in the global agricultural systemThe agricultural scenario for the HRBM:

average annual increase rates 1960-91 displayed for the continents

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

World Africa Asia Europe N+CAmerica

Oceania SouthAmerica

f. SovietUnion

sum of all six annualfactors 1960-91:(1) AREA DEMANDED

cereals area harv. /cereals production:(2) PRODUCTIVITY

cereals production /cereals supply(3) TRADE

cereals supply / cerealsfood:(4) DISTRIBUTION,OTHER USES

Structural change innutrition habits:(5) QUALITY OF FOOD

cereals food / capita(excl. struct. change):(6) AMOUNT OF FOOD

population increase for1960-91:(7) POPUL. GROWTH

average annualincrease rate

5.0% 4.3%

Gilbert AhamerGlobal Studies 24Detailed explanation of this EU project: read here

Structural shifts for energy sources• How do percentages of fuels change?

change rates of sharesshares

We observe the following transitions:

• Population transition• Land use change transition / deforestation tr.• Agricultural & food transition• Transition of economic sectors• Energy transition

• Nonetheless, we don’t believe in determinism: design, act and construct the world!

• Hope = (voluntary) learning effectsGilbert AhamerGlobal Studies 26

EVOLUTION AND CHANGE IN STRUCTURES OF NEEDS


A principal evolutionary pattern? Evolution often seems to follow a sigma curve (saturation curve)


initial value: state = A

initial value: flow =

= final value: flow

Z = final value: state

upper limit

initial value, e.g. natural worldi

final value, e.g. man-made world

lower limit

succeeding parameters of development

direction of development

initial value: flow =

Thinking in paths as a hypothesis ...

• ... means: along evolution towards higher GDP/cap some paths of development are more likely than others

• Possible heuristic confirmation by phenomena: establish correlations

• example: the “growth literature”:Y = f(“factors”) such as capital, land, human ressources, education, institutional structure ...


A possible overall view on evolution! Do targets themselves evolve along evolution? ... the more targets are fulfilled, the more they seem to decrease in importance We see: systemic structures themselves evolve, not only levels of values


A possible genesis of “targets”?


One ”preconceptive understanding” (Schumpeter)

A proposed paradigm(“–“ = “up-show”) Techno-socio-economic evolutionPierre Teilhard de Chardin (1950),

a colleague of Vernadsky

convergence – divergence?


Paul Raskin: “Transitions”

:


Paul Raskin at SEI and his team produced a seminal book (see ppt in WebCT)

Shifting views: a principle along evolution?

Popu- lation

growth

Search for new

land

Global Change & Environ-

ment

Work

Well- ness

Tradit. ethics

movement into focus of perception

movement out of focus


Thank you...

... for your comments and critical questions!

!!

Documents

Traditions of Forward Looking and Global Megatrends in Russia and the ‘Rest of the World’ FLIS Workshop Euroepan Environment Agency, 13 November 2013 Gilbert