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Impact Based Warnings
Keith Stellman - NWS Atlanta
Impact Based Warnings
• Our philosophy and thresholds for issuing Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings are not changing with IBWs.
• Main messages today…o Modifications to Content and Format of Warningso We are not changing our warning philosophyo We are not changing the number of warnings we issue
as a result
Impact Based Warnings (IBWs)
• Designed to improve communication of the most critical information through the use of: o Specific statements (PDS / Tornado
Emergency)o HAZARD, SOURCE and IMPACT informationo Summary TAGS at the bottom of warnings
• Partners and users will notice minor changes to:o Tornado Warningso Severe Thunderstorm Warningso Severe Weather Statements Offices participating in IBW
Experiment in Spring 2015
• Experimental product that started in 2012 and in 2015, 67 of the 122 Weather Forecast Offices will participate in the experiment
Why Use Impact Based Warnings?
We want to differentiate between the following:
A. Softball sized hail and quarter sized hailB. 90 mph winds and 60 mph windsC. Strong/Violent tornadoes and weaker tornadoes
Each of these comparisons get the same type of warning – this project will use social science approved wording to determine how serious the hazard is with storms
Implementation Date
Apr 1, 2015
Oct 1, 2015
2016• Implementation date
will vary by office
• NWS Atlanta and Charleston will begin using IBWs by April 1, 2015
• Nationwide implementation is expected in 2016
Impact Based Warning FeaturesImpact Statements and Tags
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 212 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... NORTHERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... NORTHEASTERN GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... NORTHWESTERN MCCLAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... WESTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
* UNTIL 300 PM CDT
* AT 208 PM CDT... A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BRIDGE CREEK...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.
IMPACT...EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS…SIDING AND TREES. HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES
IS EXPECTED.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... OKLAHOMA CITY...MIDWEST CITY...MOORE...DEL CITY...MUSTANG... NEWCASTLE...TUTTLE...STANLEY DRAPER LAKE...BRIDGE CREEK...TINKER AIR FORCE BASE...FOREST PARK...VALLEY BROOK AND LAKE ALUMA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING.
&&
LAT...LON 3513 9775 3529 9786 3561 9744 3527 9728 TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 228DEG 37KT 3525 9771
TORNADO…POSSIBLE HAIL...1.25IN WIND...60MPH
$$
** NEW ** Tags
** NEW ** Hazard , Source , Impact Information
Each warning will contain:• Hazard, Source and Impact
Information• Tags
The following are optional in the SVR warning:• Tornado…Possible Tag – if we think a tornado
could develop but confidence isn’t high enough for a Tornado Warning
• Specific Statements• PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation)
Severe Thunderstorm Warning – 80+mph winds and/or hail baseball size or larger will include “This is a Very Dangerous Storm.”
Tornado Warnings
Tags Specific to Tornado Warnings
Every Tornado WARNING will contain either “radar indicated” or “observed” tag
Several issued each year
Very rare
Old vs. New IBW Routine Tornado Warning
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN TREUTLEN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA... WEST CENTRAL EMANUEL COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA... EAST CENTRAL LAURENS COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA...
* UNTIL 115 PM EST * AT 1238 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF SOPERTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SWAINSBORO...ADRIAN...NUNEZ...GILLIS SPRINGS...COVENA...ORLAND... ROCKLEDGE...ORIANNA...BLACKVILLE...NORRISTOWN JUNCTION AND NORRISTOWN.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE...HAIL OR FLOODING...WAIT UNTIL THE STORM HASPASSED...AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 86 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6 OR TWEET US YOUR REPORT AT NWSATLANTA.
&&
LAT...LON 3243 8235 3239 8277 3246 8279 3252 8266 3252 8260 3253 8259 3253 8257 3254 8258 3255 8258 3263 8240 3256 8232TIME...MOT...LOC 1738Z 252DEG 39KT 3243 8275
$$
Old Tornado Warning IBW Routine Tornado Warning
Tags
HSI Information
Tornado WarningObserved Tag
HSI Information
Tags
Observed Tag – confirmed by spotter, EM, etc or debris signature on radar
Tornado WarningConsiderable
Tags
Specific Statements
• Forecaster target range for considerable tag is EF2+ (based on radar signature and/or ground truth).
• We are not trying to pinpoint tornado intensity by the EF scale – just “ring the bell” a little louder for more significant tornado events.
YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES…BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE.
HSI Information
Tornado WarningCatastrophic
• Catastrophic = Tornado Emergency.
• Very rare!
YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES…BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE.
Severe Weather Statements
Severe Weather StatementsOKC017-109-010000-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0060.000000T0000Z-130601T0000Z/ OKLAHOMA OK-CANADIAN OK- 646 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT…
...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR EASTERN EL RENO...YUKON…BETHANY…AND RICHLAND…
AT 642 PM CDT... A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF YUKON...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. THIS TORNADO WAS ON INTERSTATE 40 2 TO 3 MILES EAST OF EL RENO. ANOTHER SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF EL RENO...AND MAY BECOME TORNADIC IN THE NEXT HOUR.
HAZARD...DEADLY TORNADO.
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.
IMPACT... YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES…BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... YUKON…BETHANY…MUSTANG…WARR ACRES AND RICHLAND.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS...AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 3748 9773 3778 9751 3779 9715 3765 9715 3748 9743
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 233DEG 27KT 3765 9738
TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC HAIL...2.75IN
Similar format to warnings in terms of:• Specific
Statements• Hazard, Source and
Impact Information• Tags
Tags
Specific Statements
HSI Information
Specific Statements
NWS Chat
• Tornado/Hail/Wind Tags will be displayed in NWSChat
• Damage threat tags (i.e. considerable/catastrophic) will not be displayed
Additional Information
Impact Based Warnings Start April 1, 2015!
www.weather.gov/Atlanta• Headline Link: Impact Based Warnings
Starting April 1, 2015• IBW Handout
www.weather.gov/impacts• National Website• Customer Survey
Questions? Contact WCM - Dave [email protected] ext. 223
