Karl Henriksson Ulf Jonsson Swedish Defence Research Agency

SWEDISH DEFENCERESEARCH AGENCY

[email protected]@foi.se

Karl HenrikssonUlf Jonsson

Swedish Defence Research Agency

Construction of a tool for economic analysis of force structures,

and its use in the transformationof the Swedish Armed Forces



Agenda

• Context of the tool• The tool it self• Cross-road issue• Basis of the tool• Lessons Learned• Conclusions



Now + 10 years + 20 years

Step 1

Armed Forces

StructuresStep 2Step 2

Legacystructure

FutureConcepts

and vision

Method - Long Term Planning



EBV - The Tool

• EBV - Swedish acronym for “Economical Calculation Tool”• Spread sheet model• Big data base• Economical calculations of complete future Force Structures

– Economical possibilities of implementation within the timeframe – Highlighting the important decisions during the period 2005-2007– Operational use– Entire national infrastructure– Modelling of different manning provision solutions

• Quick answers to big questions



Cross-road issue

ConscriptionProfessional forces

Full time employed soldiers



Basis of the tool

• Quick economic calculation of different Force Structures over time• The base for calculation is the land, sea and air units

• Modelling different manning provisions• Modelling different infrastructure for training• Calculation of “phasing in” and “phasing out” units and equipment



Year 1-3 Year 4-6 Year 10-14 Year 15-19

Levelling the use of appropriationYear 7-9

£

Alt 1

Roughly levelling the use of appropriations

OperationProcurement Phasing outDevelopment

Alt 2

£

Level of appropriation

Level of appropriation

OperationProcurement Phasing outDevelopment



Lessons Learned - Pros

General• One single computer model = Consistent calculations• MS Excel is flexible

– “Common knowledge”.– Easy to make changes in the tool

EBV• The tool is well suited for its purpose• The tool has been easy to use• Created wider awareness in the SwAF HQ of economical thinking



Lessons Learned - Cons

General• When constructing a model it is important to first find out

– which data is readily available– what types of results are desired by decision-makers and the way to deliver the results.

• Decide on the level of generalisation of the model and try to stick to it.• Organisational inexperience of conceptual modelling => poor acceptance • Don’t use the model outside its area of validity

EBV• Risk of Force Structures design directly in the tool• Paradox: initial doubts => great enthusiasm => disapproval

– Wrong expectations of the level of detail in the results of the tool



Conclusions

• A very useful tool• Figure out what types of results are desired by decision-makers • Use already existing data when constructing a model• Communicate what the model can and cannot be used for and don’t let it

be used for anything else.



Questions?


Documents

Karl Henriksson Ulf Jonsson Swedish Defence Research Agency